1 urban commerce and security study (u-cass) click to add subtitle urban commerce and security study...

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Urban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

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http://www.hsuniversityprograms.org/

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Problem Statement• Problem: There is often a perceived conflict

between freedom of economic activity and the need for increased security. Nowhere is this more apparent than in urban areas such as Lower Manhattan– Conflicting goals:

• Enhance economic activity• Prevent terrorist attacks

– But, are they always conflicting?



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Problem Statement• Related problem arises in much more general

settings involving security.• Example:

– Crime outside Manhattan hotel– Police close off several-square- block area around hotel– Severe impact on business at nearby shops and restaurants



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Problem Statement

• Related problem arises in much more general settings involving security.

• Example:– Gas smell in a downtown building– Fire department orders evacuation of building and reroutes traffic in the neighborhood– Work at 100s of offices in the building and commerce in the area are

severely affected



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Problem Statement

• Related problem arises in much more general settings involving security.

• Example:– High-rise apartment building installs turnstyle-type access control;

residents required to carry access cards even when leaving for short time

– Some tenants find this annoying– Others feel safer and may even be willing to

pay more rent thanks to this



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Problem Statement• U-CASS aims to:

– Assess economic impact of security initiatives

– Develop general approach to understanding interplay between security and commerce

– Develop approach with wide applicability to urban areas nationwide

– Identify ways to minimize economic impact of security initiatives

– Identify situations where increased security enhances economic activity



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U-CASS Research Methodology

• Ultimate Project Goal: Develop a decision support tool that planners and decision makers can use to make choices about security initiatives/countermeasures

• Tool based on risk and economic analysis• Usable to compare security measures or

packages (“portfolios”) of security measures as to risk and economic consequences

• Applicable to a variety of urban areas



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 1: Not much relevant methodology• Considerably less work on economic impacts

of security policies and practices• Security Economics: Activities that affect,

prevent, or mitigate insecurity in the economy; use of tools to analyze dynamics of security



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 2: Metrics– How measure things like inconvenience,

willingness to accept delays, etc.?



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 2: Metrics– Many tools of economic modeling depend on “interval” or “ratio scales”

whereas we may only be able to expect “ordinal scale” responses: • Is this effect large, medium, or small?• Is this green, blue, yellow, orange, or

red?

– If we only have ordinal scales, can we use them in our economic modeling?



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 3: Infrequent Events– There is a considerable

literature on economics and security when events have a reasonable frequency of occurring

– Then, recurrence of events allows for testing models and tools.

– Example: shoplifting



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 4: Data Uncertainty– Example: Put metal detector in

store entrance– How does this change

probability a person will enter the store?

– Less likely because of long lines?– More likely because it seems

store is safer?– Level of accuracy of these

probabilities affects conclusions about resulting economic activity.



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 5: Indirect Impacts: • Case in point: Economic impacts of closing off

Pennsylvania Ave. in front of the White House (Hoffman, Chalk, Liston, Brennan, 2000)



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Research Challenges

• Challenge 6: Dependence on input from Individuals and Businesses– Input often relatively subjective– Hard to quantify– Inconsistent responses– Subject to bias– Requires careful formulation of questions or

you get the wrong information



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Research Challenges• Challenge 7: Measuring the Benefits of Security

– Most of the literature on economics and security has focused on costs of security.

– Virtually no work on benefits of security investments from economic point of view.

– Difficulty of making benefits precise.– Differing time periods over which to assess benefits– Complexity of analyzing indirect benefits from

security initiatives– Major challenge to U-CASS project: Develop

methodologies for assessing economic benefits of new security initiatives



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• Information Gathering Stage:– Developed sets of alternative security

initiatives/countermeasures:• Video surveillance (cameras)• Random vehicle inspections• Permanent street closures to traffic• Temporary perimeters & access control• Random bag inspection • Increased visible presence of police• X-rays & magnetometers in building lobbies



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• Information Gathering Stage:– Developed sample scenarios:

• Teams of shooters• Subway chemical agent• Subway bomb• Bus bomb• Street bomber


Mumbai attacksCredit: Indiaexpress.com

Credit: Commons.Wikipedia.org


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• Using Our Tool:– First choose a scenario to consider– Our tool is designed to recommend countermeasures

that might be put in place, based on the scenario– Choose a countermeasure or set of countermeasures– Measure cost/benefit of the countermeasures chosen by

considering• Capital and operating costs of the countermeasures• Economic costs and benefits of the implementation• Reduction in risk of the scenario being realized and

resulting reduction in expected costs of an attack.



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• Summary of the PIE Approach:– Selection of a scenario– Selection of countermeasure or “portfolio” of

countermeasures– Discrete event simulation to understand local

economic impacts of portfolio of countermeasures– Risk analysis to determine reduction in risk of the

scenario given the countermeasures– Computable general equilibrium modeling to

understand regional/global economic impact stemming from local impact


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• Understanding economic activity in a region:– “Normal activity”– Activity after a countermeasure

• Developed a simulation tool:– Discrete event simulation– One version: based on ARENA simulation software– Another version based on OMNet++ simulation software


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• Developed a simulation tool: • CCICADA has extensive experience with

ARENA – But ARENA is not open-source; not usable

over the web– OMNET++ can be used to create a web-

enabled decision support tool.


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• Developed a simulation tool: • ARENA and OMNet++

– Input: scenario and a security initiative– Input: information about probabilities of

different movements/behaviors• If a pedestrian passes a restaurant, what is

probability she will go inside?• If a car finds a street blocked, what is

probability it will make a right turn and seek a parallel street?


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• Developed a simulation tool: • ARENA and OMNet++:

– Output: Changes in level of economic activity

• After an hour• After a day• After a year


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• Developed a simulation tool: • How did we get information about the inputs?

– Extensive survey using Mechanical Turk + interviews + USBLS + USDOT

– Four kinds of individuals considered in survey + simulation:• Residents• Those who work in the region• Shopowners• Those who come to the region for recreation or

shopping


• Modeling and SimulationRequired extensive data gathering to populate

the model: students walking the streets; surveyA snapshot from our WTC- area simulation:

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U-CASS Research MethodologyUrban Commerce and Security Study (U-CASS)

Simulation Model – User Interface

For any side of a street, you can close it, place a bag check point on it, or place security cameras.

For a faster animation, a smaller region may be looked at instead.

Settings related to quality and display of output.

Subway bag checks can be employed either manually or periodically by inputting frequency and duration.

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Simulation Model - Animation• All pedestrian life is simulated.• Workers, tourists/ shoppers andresidents are the pedestrian categories.• Main focus is on commercial life.• Online and offline outputs can be obtained regarding economic and pedestrian activity on a street.

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Simulation Model – Offline Output

Offline output available after simulation showing average number of people on the street, and average hourly transaction.

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• Economic Analysis– Estimate direct cost of a

countermeasure: capital costs + operating & maintenance costs

– Combine the direct costs with the local economic costs computed from the simulation model.

– Then use a computable general equilibrium analysis to estimate the ripple effect on the entire economy


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• Economic Analysis– CGE is a complex, nonlinear model of the

regional economy– Sometimes we add the “non-monetary” or

“spillover” costs such as: • Discomfort people feel• Congestion• Delays• Environmental changes

– Note: “discomfort” could be negative: People feeling safer (so a “positive” impact of security

– These spillover costs can be “monetized” and fed into the CGE.


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Illustrating the Simulation•We worked on an area of Lower Manhattan around the World Trade Center site.


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U-CASS Summary

Develop a decision support tool that planners and decision makers can use to make choices about security initiatives/countermeasures– Achieve a balance between increased security and

maintaining or improving economic vitality– Ultimately using this tool to sustain our urban

environments and the quality of life for those within it.

» THANK YOU


1 urban commerce and security study (u-cass) click to add subtitle urban commerce and security study...

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increased security

dynamics of security

economic analysisusable

research challengeschallenge

security study ucassclick

freedom of economic

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problem statementucass