1 old stock market saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars at...

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1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

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Page 1: 1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

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Old Stock Market Saying

90 % of speculators lose and

the 10 % who say they don’t are liars

At 21000 again, What should I do ?

Page 2: 1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

Corporate profits after Tax As on Mar '12 As on Mar '07 Corporate profits after Tax As on Mar '12 As on Mar '07

RELAINCE INDUSTRIES 20040.00 11943.40 MARUTI SUZUKI 2288.60 1189.10

ONGC 18924.00 14430.78 JINDAL STEEL 2064.12 572.94

SBI 11707.29 4541.31 HERO MOTO CORP 1927.90 1381.98

TCS 10975.98 2716.87 TATA MOTORS 1811.82 1528.88

NTPC 9102.59 5820.20 SESA GOA 1679.94 606.41

INFOSYS 8470.00 3783.00 BPCL 1546.68 291.65

BHARTI AIRTEL 7716.90 2012.08 STERLITE INDUSTRIES 1419.71 511.12

TATA STEEL 6865.69 3506.38 SUN PHARMA 1383.80 461.29

ICICI BANK 6465.26 3110.22 ACC 1325.26 1231.84

BHEL 6011.20 1679.16 IDFC 1277.15 375.64

HDFC BANK 5167.09 1382.54 DLF 1269.58 227.44

BANK OF BARODA 5006.96 1026.00 AMBUJA CEMENT 1228.86 1503.25

ITC 4987.61 2235.35 GRASIM 1181.71 863.21

SAIL 4904.74 4012.97 JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES 1167.78 639.99

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 4884.20 1439.31 KOTAK BANK 1085.05 118.23

WIPRO 4843.70 2483.89 RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE 1080.91 650.34

COAL INDIA 4723.56 1711.66 CIPLA 960.39 607.64

AXIS BANK 4242.21 659.03 ASIAN PAINTS 958.39 187.81

HDFC 4122.62 1570.38 TATA POWER 941.49 610.54

L&T 3957.89 1012.14 DR.REDDY LABS 893.40 912.40

GAIL 3561.13 2310.07 SIEMENS 845.43 365.86

HIDALCO 3559.44 1655.55 MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA 463.11 108.27

BAJAJ AUTO 3339.73 1101.63 HCL TECH 177.23 638.38

POWER GRID CORPORATION 2696.89 1008.93 CAIRN INDIA -212.67 0.00

HUL 2305.97 1855.37 RANBAXY LAB -3052.05 380.54

Total 194296.24 94972.97

Page 3: 1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

Equity Investment : Historical Nifty, BSE Nifty PE

Date Nifty(BSE) BSE PE

31-Dec-07 6138.60 20286.99 27.62

31-Dec-10 6134.50 20509.09 24.48

31-Jan-13 6034.75 19894.98 18.50

Page 4: 1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

Nifty Data from 1st Jan 1999 to Dec 2012

1 year Retuns analysisParticulars PE 10-14 PE 14-18 PE 18-22 PE 22-26 PE Above 26Average Trailings P/E 12.93 15.68 20.16% 23.48 27.07Average Returns 58.65% 29.84% 6.39% -13.62% -33.37%Days of negative 1 year returns 5 219 459 340 65Total No of returns observed( from Jan 1999) 421 1018 1127 472 65Negative returns as of percentage of Total days 1.19% 21.51% 40.73% 72.03% 100%

3 year Retuns analysisParticulars PE 10-14 PE 14-18 PE 18-22 PE 22-26 PE Above 26Average Trailings P/E 12.93 15.68 20.00% 23.76 27.07Average Returns 31.37% 22.73% 7.71% -3.97% -9.12%Days of negative 3 year returns 0 56 209 113 58Total No of returns observed( from Jan 1999) 421 1018 897 204 65Negative returns as of percentage of Total days 0.00% 5.50% 23.30% 55.39% 89%

5 year Retuns analysisParticulars PE 10-14 PE 14-18 PE 18-22 PE 22-26 PE Above 26Average Trailings P/E 12.97 15.62 19.97% 23.6 26.92Average Returns 26.44% 23.56% 10.53% 7.80% 4.12%Days of negative 5 year returns 0 0 0 0 0Total No of returns observed( from Jan 1999) 318 946 675 122 39Negative returns as of percentage of Total days 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0%

Page 5: 1 Old Stock Market Saying 90 % of speculators lose and the 10 % who say they don’t are liars At 21000 again, What should I do ?

Thank You

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