1 dr. lawrence roberts ceo, founder, anagran internet evolution into the future
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Dr. Lawrence RobertsCEO, Founder, Anagran
Internet Evolution into the FutureInternet Evolution into the Future
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The Beginning of the Internet ARPANET became the Internet
• 1965 – MIT- 1st Packet Experiment -Roberts• 1967 - Roberts to ARPA – Designs ARPANET• 1969 – ARPANET Starts – 1st Packet Network• 1971 – ARPANET Grows to 18 nodes
• 1983 – TCP/IP installed on ARPANET – Kahn/Cerf • 1986 – NSF takes over network - NSFNET• 1991 – Internet opened to commercial use
Roberts at MIT Computer
ARPANET 1971
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Internet Early History
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TrafficTCP/IPNCP
EMAIL FTP
ICCC Demo
Aloha-Packet Radio
SATNET - Satellite to UK
Spans US
Ethernet
DNSPacketRadioNET
“Internet”Name first used- RFC 675
TCP/IP Design
X.25 – Virtual Circuit standard
Roberts term at ARPA Kahn term at ARPACerf term at ARPA
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Original Internet DesignIt was designed for Data
File Transfer and Email main activitiesConstrained by high cost of memory– Only Packet Destination Examined– No Source Checks– No QoS – No Security– Best Effort Only– Voice Considered– Video not feasible
Not much change since thenARPANET July 1977
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Voice Totally moving to packets– Low loss, low delay required
Video Totally moving to packets – Low loss, low delay jitter required
Emergency Services No Preference Priority
Broadband Edge Must control Edge Traffic
P2P utilizes TCP unfairness – multiple flows – Congests network – 5% of users take 80% of capacity
Changing Use of InternetMajor changes in Network Use
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Network Change Required
Fairness– Multi-flow applications (P2P) overload access networks
Network Security– Need User Authentication and Source Checking
Emergency Services– Need Secure Preference Priorities
Cost & Power– Growth constrained to Moore’s law & developed areas
Quality– Video & Voice require lower jitter and loss
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Internet Traffic Grown 1012 since 1970
In 1999 P2P applications discovered using multiple flows could give them more capacity and their traffic moved up to 80% of the network capacity
World Internet Traffic - History
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ARPANET NSFNET COMMERICAL
Double each year
Electronics – Double every 18 months
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Where will the Internet be in the next decade
2008 2018
% World Population On-Line 22% 99% Total Traffic PB/month 3,200 191,000Traffic per User GB/month 2.2 26GB/mo/user Developed areas 2.7 156GB/mo/user Less Dev. areas 0.5 3
People in less developed areas will have more capacity than is available in developed areas today! Users in developed areas could see 3-10 hours of video per day (HD or SD)Requires a 60 times increase in capacity (Moore’s Law increase)
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Fairness - In the beginning
A flow was a file transfer, or a voice callThe voice network had 1 flow per user– All flows were equal (except for 911)– Early networking was mainly terminal to
computer– Again we had 1 flow (each way) per user– No long term analysis was done on fairness
It was obvious that under congestion:
Users are equalthus
Equal Capacity per Flowwas the default design
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Fairness - Equal Capacity per Flow in Unfair
The Internet is still equal capacity per flow under congestionP2P uses 10-1000 flows – consumes neighbors capacity
Typically 1000 ISP users share a capacity poolCongestion here forces equal capacity per flowThe result is therefore unfair to users who paid the same
P2P FTP
Downstream Capacity Usage12 Mbps Downstream, 7 Mbps upstream
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P2P Users - 4 Mbps/user
Normal Users - 0.3 Mbps/user No Control DPI
Equality
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Fairness - Internet Traffic Recently – 80% P2P
Since 2004, total traffic has increased 64% per year, about Moore’s Law – P2P has increased 91% per year – Consuming most of the capacity growth– Normal traffic has only increased 22% per year –Significantly slowdown from past
Since P2P slows other traffic 5:1, users can only do 1/5 as much This may account for the normal traffic being about 1/5 what it should be with normal growth
World Internet Traffic - History
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Fairness - A New Rule is Needed
Today - Equal capacity per flow– P2P has taken advantage of this, using 10-1000 flows– This gives the 5% P2P users 80-95% of the capacity– P2P does not know when to stop until it sees congestion
Instead we should give Equal capacity for equal pay – This is simply a revised equality rule – similar users get equal capacity– This tracks with what we pay
This is a major worldwide problem– P2P is not bad, it can be quite effective– But, without revised fairness, multi-flow applications will proliferate– It then becomes an arms race – who can use the most flows
P2P FTP
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Security – User Authentication in the Network
Today – All security is left to the computer– The network does not even verify the source address– There is no way to determine who sent Spam or Malware
Goal – Network to secure each connection (flow)– User and computer ID sent to network to be verified– Network to verify the source address is correct
Also, allow the receiver to verify the senders ID– If no legal ID, connection can be refused
This greatly improves Internet security– Source of Malware can be recorded and controlled– Computer security becomes much easier
Protocol for this is now proceeding in the ITU
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Emergency Services – Required on Internet
Today – Telephone system has GETS for emergencies– However, Internet taking over voice and has no such service
Required – Both priority and user authentication security– Priority is not available in the Internet – it could be misused– Secure user authentication required before priority offered
Priority must provide higher rates, not just lower delaySame problem as Multi-Flow fairness – needs rate priority– Standard queue based discard for congestion cannot do it– Flow based rate control is required
Solution requires change at network edge– Flow rate control and per flow user authentication
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A New Alternative - Flow Rate Management
Network Equipment now drops random packets– All traffic suffers delay and jitter if there is any congestion– Voice & Video do not slow down but still lose packets– Data flows often lose several packets and stall
Flow Rate Management - a new control alternative– Control the rate of each TCP flow individually– Smoothly adjust the TCP rates to fill the desired capacity– Insure congestion does not occur by controlling rates– Provide for user authentication and emergency service priorities
Replacing random drops with rate control:– Network Stability is maintained– All traffic moves smoothly without random loss and stalls– Voice & Video flows cleanly with no loss or delay jitter– Unfairness can be eliminated
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Flow Rate Management – Why now?
Routers, WAN Optimizers, & DPI depend on processing– They process every packet – there are 14 packets per flow
Memory cost has come down faster than processing costFlow Rate Management is memory based (flow table)– Stream packets without delay, rate control flows
Allows it to support four 10 Gbps trunks in 1 RU
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Cost and Power – Reduction help Internet Grow
Today – Network equipment is packet based – Every packet re-examined – Extensive processing
Flow Rate Management processes flows– Hardware lookup of flow record for incoming packets– Flow rate measured and, if required, controlled– Output rates measured, feedback insure no congestion
Result - comparing flow vs. packet processing: – Power, size and cost 3-5 times lower managing flows– New capabilities available: fairness, security, priority, quality
These factors allow a step-up in Internet capacity– Cost (4:1). Fairness (5:1). Congestion (2:1) – Total 40:1
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Impact - Optical Network
Today – Fiber cost has crossed below Equipment cost– Fiber capacity cost has been reducing by half every 12 months– Equipment cost has been reducing b half every 18 months
This limits the Internet capacity growth to Moore’s Law– Equipment dominates, Income/user fixed, Thus growth limited
Flow Rate Management permits a major cost reduction– The network edge $/Gbps can be reduced by over 10:1– The network core can use primarily optical switching
This can let the Internet capacity double each year againLower power is also critical for the environment