Slide 1

1 Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare? PNWS AWWA Annual Conference May 2, 2008 Vancouver, WA Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative University of Oregon hamilton.roger@comcast.net 541-686-4839

Slide 2

2

Slide 3

3 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years /decade

Slide 4

4

Slide 5

5 CSIRO MIROC HAD B1 Change in Mean Monthly Temperature (Degrees C) 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 A2

Slide 6

6 B1 CSIRO HAD MIROC Percent Change in Precipitation 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990

Slide 7

77

Slide 8

8

Slide 9

9

Slide 10

10

Slide 11

11 Observed Temperatures Last Century Compared to Natural and Man- Made Simulations Vertical scale is.5 degrees Fahrenheit

Slide 12

12 Agriculture emerges 4.5 o C 1.5 o C Is this an Anthropomorphic Sweet Spot? The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a Historic Sweet Spot that Enabled Humans to Flourish?

Slide 13

13 Volatility of Temperatures in Central Greenland over Last 100,000 Years Data s hows remarkable stability in last 10,000 years during human settlement. ( From 1995 Ice Cores)

Slide 14

14 Reduction CO 2 missions sooner, moves these delayed consequences downward and reduces the time required to stabilize the responses. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. Carbon Dioxide Stabilizes in several Hundred years Temperatures Stabilizes in about 500 Hundred years Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes in over 1000 years Today 100 Years 1000 Years

Slide 15

15 CO 2 and SO 2 in the 21 st Century Source: IPCC TAR 2001 A2 A1B B1 Future Scenarios are Based on Socio-Economic Storylines Stable at 550 ppm Stable at 750 ppm Approaching 3,000 to 4,000 ppm

Slide 16

16 What Do We See Happening Now? Arctic sea ice has shrunk by over 20 percent since 1978 (Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since 1953 according to National Snow and Ice Center in Boulder) Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002 Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia Methane, most powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from thawing tundra at 5X expected rate Sea levels are rising and expected to increase up to 23 inches without melting of polar ice sheets Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes

Slide 17

17 PNW Temperature and Precipitation Trends Over Past Century Average warming since the beginning of the 20th century Average 10% precipitation increase since the beginning of the 20 th century 30 to 40% increase in eastern Washington April 1 Cascades snow pack declined 35% from 1950- 1995 Timing of peak snow pack moved to earlier in year March stream flows have increased and June stream flows reduced Most affected at low and mid elevations

Slide 18

18

Slide 19

19

Slide 20

20

Slide 21

21

Slide 22

22

Slide 23

23

Slide 24

24

Slide 25

25

Slide 26

26 Substantial Warming Seems Inevitable 4 o F or so temperature increase is likely to cause significant harm. + 4 o F increase may generate catastrophic impacts: All communities and persons will be affected. Some scientists expect global temperatures to rise by 10 o F or more by centurys end. Temperature increases may not be gradual: rapid change may dominate. New international report (over 2000 scientists) predicts temperature will increase 3.1 to 7.2 degrees F this century If 6 degrees F, sea level could rise 80 feet with melting of ice sheets

Slide 27

27 PNW Projections for Next 10 to 50 years Temperature: average warming 2.7 degrees F by 2030 and 5.4 degrees F by 2050 Results: Higher elevation treeline Longer growing seasons Earlier animal and plant breeding Longer and more intense allergy season Changes in vegetative zones

Slide 28

28 PNW Impacts (cont.) Precipitation: May increase on average Historical increase by 10% since 1900 but 30% in some locations Most precipitation will continue to occur in winter and in mountains Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow: decreased summer water availability Increased flood damage Shifts in hydro production from summer to winter Decreased water quality Increased salinity and pollutant concentration Increased storm intensity, beach erosion, and stream scouring

Slide 29

29 Rain, Mixed Rain/Snow, and Snow Dominant Areas in the PNW (HUC4 resolution) Green = Rain Dominant Red = Mixed Rain/Snow Blue= Snow Dominant

Slide 30

30 Hydro Power Production A ten percent decrease in flows can reduce hydro production by 36% Conservative Prediction: 20% hydro power reduction in Columbia Basin by 2060. Increased pressure to reduce power to help stressed fish. Increased summer temperatures will cause increased summer power demand for air conditioning

Slide 31

31 Hydropower Climate drivers Increased levels of CO 2. Temperatures up 2F by 2020s and 3F by 2040s. Earlier snowmelt. No significant change in amount of precipitation. Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches.

Slide 32

32 Winter and Spring: increased generation Summer: decreased generation Annual: total production will depend on annual precipitation Plus: impacts on electricity demand in winter in summer (+3.6F, +6%) (+4.1F, +5%) (+5.2F, -4%) NWPCC (2005)

Slide 33

33

Slide 34

34 Municipal water supply Climate drivers Increased levels of CO 2. Temperatures up 2F by 2020s and 3F by 2040s. Earlier snowmelt. No significant change in amount of precipitation. Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches. Economic Impacts Varies greatly by municipality depending on water source, water quantity relative to population, adaptive management, etc. Both supply and demand solutions have costs; e.g. Lake Tapps system in Pierce County estimated at $450 million. One study found water conservation costs to offset the decline in firm yield of Seattles water supply could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and $16 million per year by 2040s.

Slide 35

35 TYPES OF PREPARATION MEASURES CATEGORY Status Quo Prevent the Loss Spread or Share the Loss Change the Activity Change the Location Prepare EXAMPLE Rebuild, or abandon affected structures Build for big winds, floods, drought Purchase flood insurance Dont build in low lying coastal areas, rebuild wetlands Relocate buildings out of flood zones Protect and restore wetlands and forests in streams From Adapting to Climate Change, Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network

Slide 36

36 For Energy and Water Systems: Reliability of transmission systems threatened given higher summer peaking with increased air conditioning loads and higher ambient temperatures for electrical wires: need for distributed generation Energy efficiency consistent with increased greenhouse gas reduction regulation Buffering of transmission and distribution lines anticipating increased wildfire frequency and intensity Protection of electricity sub-stations against flood damage in flood- prone areas

Slide 37

37 Adjusting electricity production and transmission long-range planning to anticipate reduced hydroelectric water storage with decreased snow pack and earlier spring run off Considering changes in wind plant production profiles due to changing climate regimes Considering expanding municipal water storage facilities in drought prone areas with anticipated reduced precipitation and summer runoff Buffering of municipal water and waste water treatment facilities against severe storm events

Slide 38

38 For Water Treatment Facilities Water Quality May Be Impacted by the following: Increased mobility of chemical compounds Increased temperature Increased eutrophication Reduced dissolved oxygen Increased hazardous substances Flush of sediment or pollutants from flash flood events Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities from flash flood events

Slide 39

39 Flash Flood Events May Cause: Flush of sediments or pollutants Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities Spread of pathogens

Slide 40

40 Interdecadal Climate Regime Shifts 1976 - 771988 - 89 El Nio 19831998 Drought and Fire in the West (Simulated Fire, no Fire Suppression) 1940s

Slide 41

41 MIROC3_MEDRES A2B1 HADCM3 CSIRO_MK3 percent Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire 2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.

Slide 42

42

Slide 43

43

Slide 44

44 UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact Assessments Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development Climate Policy and Program Development Private Access Local Government Web-based Discussion Board Pacific Northwest Local Government Climate Change Working Group Climate Change Literacy and Information E-mail alerts on climate change issues Neighborhood Climate Change Program Website: http://climlead.uoregon.eduhttp://climlead.uoregon.edu E-mail: hamilton.roger@comcast.net