• 1. China’s population grew faster than world average, 1. China’s population grew faster than world average, 500 – 1750 (and scarcely fell behind 1750-2000), but 500 – 1750 (and scarcely fell behind 1750-2000), but slower than Western Europeslower than Western Europe

• 2. At the same time, China avoided a Malthusian crisis2. At the same time, China avoided a Malthusian crisis—availability of food and standards of living rose—availability of food and standards of living rose

• 3. China’s strange preventive checks (which Malthus & 3. China’s strange preventive checks (which Malthus & others have failed to appreciate) made the difference:others have failed to appreciate) made the difference:– A. Early female marriage, but little remarriageA. Early female marriage, but little remarriage– B. Male celibacy & minor marriage B. Male celibacy & minor marriage – C. Birth control within marriageC. Birth control within marriage– D. Female infanticideD. Female infanticide– E. Fictive kinshipE. Fictive kinship

• Is the argument convincing? (more on next slide)Is the argument convincing? (more on next slide)

Originality of Wang and Lee’s argument on Originality of Wang and Lee’s argument on population and economic in early modern China.population and economic in early modern China.

China’s demographic transition:China’s demographic transition:was it from controlled fertility/early marriage to uncontrolled and was it from controlled fertility/early marriage to uncontrolled and

then to controlled/late marriage (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) then to controlled/late marriage (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) or was it rarely controlled until the 1950sor was it rarely controlled until the 1950s

Lee & Wang’s Chinese Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transitiondemographic transition

Western Europe’s Western Europe’s demographic transitiondemographic transition

• A. Early female marriage, but little remarriageA. Early female marriage, but little remarriage• B. Male celibacy & minor marriage B. Male celibacy & minor marriage • C. Birth control within marriageC. Birth control within marriage

– Weakest evidence: was “lower” fertility real or can it be Weakest evidence: was “lower” fertility real or can it be explained by omission of births, particularly of females?explained by omission of births, particularly of females?

• D. Female infanticideD. Female infanticide• E. Fictive kinship (adoption)E. Fictive kinship (adoption)• Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of

Malthus’s positive check? or the preventive check (as Malthus’s positive check? or the preventive check (as Lee and Wang argue)?Lee and Wang argue)?

Is their argument (#3—previous slide) of China’s Is their argument (#3—previous slide) of China’s preventive check convincing?preventive check convincing?

Demographic dynamics of early modern China were Demographic dynamics of early modern China were strikingly different from Western Europestrikingly different from Western Europe

MalthusSixth: MalthusSixth: Chapter XII in paragraph I.XII.12 in paragraph I.XII.12 “The extraordinary encouragements that have “The extraordinary encouragements that have been given to marriage, which have caused the been given to marriage, which have caused the immense produce of the country to be divided immense produce of the country to be divided into very small shares, and have consequently into very small shares, and have consequently rendered China more populous, in proportion to rendered China more populous, in proportion to its means of subsistence, than perhaps any other its means of subsistence, than perhaps any other

country in the world.”country in the world.”

““China” has many regions;China” has many regions;and diverse growth rates (1776-1990), p. 117. and diverse growth rates (1776-1990), p. 117.

• 1. Mortality: female infanticide was an important 1. Mortality: female infanticide was an important regulator—not famine (nor is infanticide a Malthusian regulator—not famine (nor is infanticide a Malthusian positive check—according to Lee & Wang).positive check—according to Lee & Wang).

• 2. A gender imbalanced marriage market (a “marriage 2. A gender imbalanced marriage market (a “marriage squeeze”): too many males, too few females. Females squeeze”): too many males, too few females. Females married early and universally; males late and some not married early and universally; males late and some not at allat all

• 3. “Low level of fertility within marriage (much lower 3. “Low level of fertility within marriage (much lower than in Western Europe). Chinese than in Western Europe). Chinese TMFRTMFR (6 children) (6 children) was lower than Western Europe (7.5-9); but was lower than Western Europe (7.5-9); but TFRsTFRs were were about the same.about the same.

• 4. Fictive kinship (adoption)—a socially constructed 4. Fictive kinship (adoption)—a socially constructed means of winning the demographic lottery (lack of heir)means of winning the demographic lottery (lack of heir)

The 4 distinctive aspects of the Chinese (historical) The 4 distinctive aspects of the Chinese (historical) demographic system (p. 7-9)demographic system (p. 7-9)

Chinese pop. “explosion” is recent, 1950-2000 Chinese pop. “explosion” is recent, 1950-2000

(Lee & Wang, p. 28)(Lee & Wang, p. 28)

1930-1990: per capita grain production grew 1930-1990: per capita grain production grew faster than population, p. 30faster than population, p. 30

• Roots stretch back 1,000 or more yearsRoots stretch back 1,000 or more years• Multiple conscious checks Multiple conscious checks • Typically, avoided the Malthusian “positive” check Typically, avoided the Malthusian “positive” check

through endogenous restraints (p. 106):through endogenous restraints (p. 106):– Early female marriage, hi male celibacy, minor marriage, Early female marriage, hi male celibacy, minor marriage,

little-daughter-in-law marriage, polygyny as serial monogamylittle-daughter-in-law marriage, polygyny as serial monogamy– Little remarriageLittle remarriage– Birth control within marriage: delayed 1Birth control within marriage: delayed 1stst birth, stopped birth, stopped

bearing sooner, abstained from procreationbearing sooner, abstained from procreation– Female infanticide was widely used when “passion between the Female infanticide was widely used when “passion between the

sexes” got out of control—reduced family size, controlled sexes” got out of control—reduced family size, controlled gendergender

– Fictive kinship—insurance for lack of male heirFictive kinship—insurance for lack of male heir

Chinese demographic system was far more Chinese demographic system was far more calculating than Malthus (& others) have thought calculating than Malthus (& others) have thought

Famine and Chinese population Famine and Chinese population growth: the positive checkgrowth: the positive check

• Peasant rebellions, 1625-1650: Peasant rebellions, 1625-1650: “It is impossible to estimate even approximately “It is impossible to estimate even approximately the number of people who perished directly in the number of people who perished directly in the two decades of peasant wars and indirectly the two decades of peasant wars and indirectly from famine, pestilence, and economic from famine, pestilence, and economic dislocation.” dislocation.”

• Real peace did not return until the 1680s.Real peace did not return until the 1680s.

Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1865.

• ““The World's most devastating civil war”. The World's most devastating civil war”.

Devastated the most densely populated areas of Devastated the most densely populated areas of

China. Population pressure was one of the basic China. Population pressure was one of the basic

causes of the rebellion. Perhaps 50 million causes of the rebellion. Perhaps 50 million

people died. people died.

Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1865.

• Wang Shih-to, a Taiping captive, innocent victim, Wang Shih-to, a Taiping captive, innocent victim, observed in his diary: “The harm of over-observed in his diary: “The harm of over-population is that people are forced to plant population is that people are forced to plant cereals on mountain tops and to reclaim cereals on mountain tops and to reclaim sandbanks and islets. All the ancient forestry of sandbanks and islets. All the ancient forestry of Szechwan has been cut down and the virgin Szechwan has been cut down and the virgin timberland of the aboriginal regions turned into timberland of the aboriginal regions turned into farmland. Yet there is still not enough for farmland. Yet there is still not enough for everybody. This proves that the resources of everybody. This proves that the resources of Heaven and Earth are exhausted.”Heaven and Earth are exhausted.”

Now, Now, let’s examine arguments: let’s examine arguments: A (prudential marriage), A (prudential marriage), C (fertility limitation), and C (fertility limitation), and D (female infanticide).D (female infanticide).

But not:But not:B (male marriage) or B (male marriage) or E (adoption)E (adoption)--which are not demographically --which are not demographically significantsignificant

A. A. Marriage Marriage restraint restraint

#1:#1:Female Female age at age at

marriage marriage age was age was below 20 below 20 until the until the

1980s1980s(p. 67)(p. 67)

Bride being transported to wedding Bride being transported to wedding ceremonyceremony

• Contracting parties were Contracting parties were the fathers (or patriarchical the fathers (or patriarchical stand-ins; match-makers stand-ins; match-makers were female)—consulting were female)—consulting couple’s wishes was not couple’s wishes was not required.required.

• Private marriage rites: Private marriage rites: transporting bride to her transporting bride to her new husband’s home, new husband’s home, where the couple would where the couple would bow silently before his bow silently before his family’s ancestral altar. family’s ancestral altar.

• Marriages rites symbolized Marriages rites symbolized not free will, but rather not free will, but rather submission of maturing submission of maturing children to family roles and children to family roles and filial duty.filial duty.

Rush to marry females, Rush to marry females, while males had to wait (p. 73)while males had to wait (p. 73)

-1900: 96% of females married by age 30; -1900: 96% of females married by age 30; after 1900: 98-99% married by 30 (p. 68) after 1900: 98-99% married by 30 (p. 68)

Is the evidence for Is the evidence for A (prudential marriage) persuasive?A (prudential marriage) persuasive?

Or is early marriage the classic Or is early marriage the classic pattern described by Hajnal for non-pattern described by Hajnal for non-Western populations?Western populations?

C. Marital restraint #3: East Asian fertility was C. Marital restraint #3: East Asian fertility was scarcely half that of Europeans, 1600-1800 (p. 87)scarcely half that of Europeans, 1600-1800 (p. 87)

East AsiaEast Asia

Western Western EuropeEurope

East Asian pattern: East Asian pattern: late starting (3 yrs),late starting (3 yrs),early stopping (<35), early stopping (<35), long birth intervals long birth intervals (>3 yrs)(>3 yrs)

Chinese total marital fertility was 2 kids below the Chinese total marital fertility was 2 kids below the norm (8)--lower yet given early marriage (p. 85)norm (8)--lower yet given early marriage (p. 85)

Fertility declined hereFertility declined here

Is the evidence for Is the evidence for C (fertility limitation) persuasive?C (fertility limitation) persuasive?

Lower fertility is not in doubt.Lower fertility is not in doubt.The question is whether lower fertility The question is whether lower fertility is due to control or to biological is due to control or to biological factors (such as sub-fecundity factors (such as sub-fecundity resulting from malnutrition and early resulting from malnutrition and early marriage) and/or errors in the data?marriage) and/or errors in the data?

• 1. Widespread: in late 181. Widespread: in late 18thth century rose century rose as high as 1/10 of daughters born to as high as 1/10 of daughters born to imperial lineage.imperial lineage.

• 2. The higher the birth order the less 2. The higher the birth order the less likely the daughter would livelikely the daughter would live

• 3. Girls born to heads of households (and 3. Girls born to heads of households (and their sons) were also less likely to live their sons) were also less likely to live

D. Female infanticide in early modern D. Female infanticide in early modern China: three pointsChina: three points

Female Infanticide in Female Infanticide in Chinese population historyChinese population history

• 17th c: a magistrate proposed that any well-to-do family that had reared two daughters was to be awarded “a wooden table on which the virtue of the family would be extolled.”

Female Infanticide in Female Infanticide in Chinese population historyChinese population history

• 1847: “...The first female birth may sometimes be salvaged with effort, but the subsequent births are usually drowned. There are even those who drown every female baby without keeping any...This is because the poor worry about daily sustenance...and the rich are concerned over future dowries.”

Father and mother cared for by faithful son Father and mother cared for by faithful son and daughter-in-lawand daughter-in-law

Infant mortality of girls was 2-3X as great as Infant mortality of girls was 2-3X as great as boys in late 18boys in late 18thth century (Beijing, p. 46) century (Beijing, p. 46)

Female infantsFemale infants

Male infantsMale infants

Female childFemale child

Male childMale child

Did smallpox Did smallpox inoculation inoculation reduce child reduce child mortality after mortality after 1740?1740?

1/10 of daughters born into imperial lineage 1/10 of daughters born into imperial lineage were victims of infanticide, 1760-1820 (p. 50) were victims of infanticide, 1760-1820 (p. 50)

At higher birth orders for every female baby, At higher birth orders for every female baby, there were 3-4 males (p. 59)there were 3-4 males (p. 59)

Female Infanticide Female Infanticide • 1864: “The rustic people of Hupei and parts of

Hunan customarily rear two sons and one daughter at the most. Any further birth is often disposed of. The custom is particularly against female infants. This is why in this area women are proportionately scarce and single unmarried men abound. When a baby girl is born, she is usually killed by drowning. Her parents, of course, cannot bear this, but none the less they close their eyes and turn their backs, while continuing to immerse her in the water tub until she ceases to utter her feeble cries and dies.”

Is the evidence for Is the evidence for D (female infanticide) persuasive?D (female infanticide) persuasive?

Yes, but Malthus’s moralism would Yes, but Malthus’s moralism would have considered infanticide an have considered infanticide an abhorrent practice, a positive, not a abhorrent practice, a positive, not a prudential check. prudential check.

• A. Early female marriage, but little remarriageA. Early female marriage, but little remarriage• B. Male celibacy & minor marriage B. Male celibacy & minor marriage • C. Birth control within marriageC. Birth control within marriage

– Weakest evidence: can “lower” fertility be explained by Weakest evidence: can “lower” fertility be explained by omission of births, particularly of females?omission of births, particularly of females?

• D. Female infanticideD. Female infanticide• E. Fictive kinshipE. Fictive kinship• Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of Is the unique Chinese pattern a confirmation of

Malthus’s positive check? or the preventive check (as Malthus’s positive check? or the preventive check (as Lee and Wang argue)?Lee and Wang argue)?

Is the argument convincing?Is the argument convincing?Demographic dynamics of early modern China Demographic dynamics of early modern China were strikingly different from Western Europewere strikingly different from Western Europe

Conclusion: Conclusion: positive checks are widely mentioned positive checks are widely mentioned in contemporary texts.in contemporary texts.

Consider 2 testimonies: 1748, 1820Consider 2 testimonies: 1748, 1820

Yang Hsi-fu, governor of rice-rich Hunan province, 1748:

• “I was born and brought up in the countryside and my family had been for generations engaged in farming. I can recall from personal memory that many decades ago prices of one shih of rice ranged between two-tenths and three-tenths of a tael. A few decades later, such low prices were no longer possible and they rose to four-tenths or five-tenths. Nowadays the prices can never be lower than five or six-tenths.”

Yang Hsi-fu, governor of rice-rich Hunan province, 1748:

• “This is because a large population consumes large quantities of rice. Despite the considerable cultivated area that has been developed during the past few decades, in many regions there is no more room for agricultural expansion. It is inevitable that a rapidly increasing population should have caused a steady rise in the price of rice.”

1820: Kung Tzu-chen, a gifted 1820: Kung Tzu-chen, a gifted scholar, foretold social dissolution.scholar, foretold social dissolution.

• ““For some decades now the officials and For some decades now the officials and commoners have been distressed and slipping commoners have been distressed and slipping fast. Those who are neither scholars and farmers fast. Those who are neither scholars and farmers nor artisans and traders constitute nearly one-nor artisans and traders constitute nearly one-half of the population. ... In general the rich half of the population. ... In general the rich households have become poor and the poor households have become poor and the poor hungry. The educated rush here and there but hungry. The educated rush here and there but are of no avail, for all are impoverished. The are of no avail, for all are impoverished. The provinces are at the threshold of a convulsion....”provinces are at the threshold of a convulsion....”

EndEnd