1

CAPS Early Commercialization Activities1996-2000

Richard CarpenterWeather Decision Technologies, Inc.

June 2014

2

Project Hub-CAPS1996-1999• 3-year, $1M R&D effort between OU and American

Airlines– “CAPS + Hub airports”

• Goals:– to demonstrate the practicability of storm-scale numerical

weather prediction for commercial aviation– to customize and integrate the CAPS forecast system into

AA operations– to end with a usable system that can

be run daily for or by AA• Prompted by 29 Apr 1995 DFW

Hailstorm– Severely damaged 80 AA aircraft

3

Hub-CAPS Personnel• CAPS Director

– Kelvin Droegemeier

• American Airlines– Warren Qualley, Roy Strasser

• Hub-CAPS Staff– Richard Carpenter, Gene Bassett, Jason Levit

• Other CAPS Staff– Keith Brewster, Ming Xue, Steve Weygandt, David Jahn, Al Shapiro,

Fred Carr, Min Zou

• Students– Project COMET-Tinker: Capt. Chris Stock, John Mewes, Eric Kemp– Chris Hudgin, Casey Crosbie, Mike Klatt, Jason Lynn, Shannon

Stevenson

4

Year 1: 1996-97

• Built Perl-based ARPSControl forecast system• Humble beginnings

– One 9 km grid, 9 hr forecast each day– 12Z RUC, surface obs, 16Z ADAS analysis

• Early forecasts had issues– Convective spin-up, surface physics, coarse

grid, lateral boundaries• Cray J90 upgraded from 8 to 16 processors• Presentations at 1997-99 AMS Aviation Conferences• Resistance from AA’s union forecasters

– Added workload– Effect of automation on job security– Distrust of early forecasts

5

Year 2: 1997-98• Added outer 27-km grid

– 4x daily on 27 km, 6-hr 20Z forecast on 9 km• Greatly improved the spin-up problem

– Added satellite and radar data– ADAS cloud analysis

• More and better products– Aviation Impact Variables– Improved quality and timeliness of products– Added animations to web page– Began reporting on forecast system health

• Opened up web access– Used by airlines, TV stations, NOAA, USAF, FAA

• Onsite at AA Weather Services– Conducted training sessions– Forecast evaluation and interviews

• 62% rated forecasts good to excellent• 36% felt Hub-CAPS made a positive impact on their forecast

6

Hub-CAPS gets noticed

• Mentioned in NWSFO and SPC discussions– THE ARPS SHOWS PRECIP STREAKING DIRECTLY ACROSS

DFW– LATEST ARPS MODEL INDICATES THAT MORE CONVECTION

WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NWD

• “We at the Fort Worth ARTCC Center Weather Service Unit have been using your Hub-CAPS site for some time now, and we find it to be one of the best forecast tools for the D/FW area”– Tom Hicks, Meteorologist-in-Charge, Center Weather

Services Unit, Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center• “We live and die by your web page”

– Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN TV-9, Chicago

7

Year 3: 1998-99

• CRAFT – Real-time Level II NEXRAD data– Implemented during AMS-99– KTLX, KFWS

• Improved grid nesting– 30/8/4 km

• Introduced Ensembles and Forecast Cycling

• Ingested AA MDCRS data• AA endowed professorship in

OU School of Meteorology– Currently Alan Shapiro

8

AMS Annual Meeting 1999 (AMS-99), Dallas

• Real-time ARPS Forecasts and Analyses– Dedicated 128-node Origin-2000 at NCSA– 32/9/3 km forecasts

• Real-time Ingest of Fort Worth radar• Kiosks provided by SGI• Daily Weather Briefings (Steve Weygandt)

Kelvin, Chancellor Hans Brisch, AA EVP Bob Baker, John Snow

9

6 January 1999 Fog Burnoff Forecast

10

Humble beginnings of a web page

11

Final configuration of web page showing time index and past runs

12

13

14

Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs &Streamlines

CAPE & Helicity

Surface Visibility Clear-Air Turbulence Icing Potential

Sample ARPSView Products

Downburst Potential Surface Isotachs &Streamlines

CAPE & Helicity

15

CAPS/wx web page today

16

Weather Decision Technologies

• “Launched out of OU”– OU 10% ownership– Royalties for exclusive licenses to ARPS and

WxScope (Oklahoma Climate Survey)– Incorporated 1999, began operations 2000

• Continued providing 6-km forecasts to AA• Collaboration with CAPS

– Williams Energy– ADAS-WRF for Paraguay (2004)

• Western Resources, Kansas (2000-2002)• MetroCast for Kavouras/Meteorlogix (2000-

2003)– Run ARPS at TV stations on 4 proc SGI workstation

17

Weather Decision Technologies– Today • Located across the street in Partners Place 3

– 86 full-time employees, 38 with MS or higher– 6 CAPS alumni– AMS Fellow (Mike Eilts)– 4 CCMs– 2011 AMS Award for Outstanding Contributions by a

Corporation– Serving on AMS committees

• Areas of Expertise– NWP, Radar/Nowcasting, Asset Protection, Enterprise and

Consumer Alerting, Scalable Data Delivery– Licensed and patented technologies

• NWP– ARPSControl (Perl) WRFControl (Python)– 200+ forecasts/day on 4 continents– Dedicated systems in Philippines, Dubai, Thailand

18

19

20