1 budget study session michael e finn. wide range of projections for next year – how do we plan...

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Budget Study Session

Michael E Finn

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• Wide range of projections for next year– How do we plan for this

• Overview of what has been done so far– 2009 reductions– 2012 reductions

• Collaboration team summary and progress• Enrollment projections• Governing Board Discussion

Topics

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Planning Scenarios

No Sale Tax No Change Sales Tax

$(30,000,000.00)

$(20,000,000.00)

$(10,000,000.00)

$-

$10,000,000.00

$20,000,000.00

$30,000,000.00

$(26,000,000.00)

$(3,300,000.00)

$21,000,000.00

In Millions Proposed Actual Proposed Revised No Sales Tax With Sales Tax 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014

Funding M&O $189.60 $184.30 $183.90 $180.00 $182.50 $158.80 $182.50

CSF Carry Forward $3.70 $ - $ - $ -

CORL $9.50 $6.60 $4.89 $5.20 $5.50 $5.20 $5.20 Soft Cap $1.20 $0.80 $0.00 $0.80 $1.10 $0.80 $0.80 Contingency $7.80 $16.80 $16.00 $14.94 $7.77 $0.20 $0.20

EduJobs $6.80 $ - $ - $ - $ -

Total $218.60 $208.50 $204.79 $200.94 $196.87 $165.00 $188.70 <3.71> <4.07>

Expenses M&O $189.30 $189.30 $194.00 $194.00 $194.00 $187.15 $187.15 CORL $1.10 $1.10 $1.02 $1.10 $1.02 $1.10 $1.10 Soft Cap $4.20 $4.20 $3.60 $4.20 $3.60 $4.20 $4.20

EduJobs $3.50 $0.00 $0.00 $ - $ -

$ - $ -

ASRS $ - $1.20 - $1.00 $ 1.35 $ - $ -

Health Care Benefits $ - $0.80 - $ - $ 2.00

$ - $ -

Utilities $ - $0.16 - $0.80 $0.80

Prop Backfill $3.70 $0.00 $0.00 $ - $ -

$ - $ -

Professional Growth $ 0.75 $ 1.00

Total $201.80 $196.76 $198.62 $201.10 $203.52 $192.45 $193.45 <1.86> <2.42>

Reductions Staffing $ - $1.60 $0.00 $8.00 $5.25 $26.60 $3.50 Career Ladders $ - $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 Total 0 $3.20 $1.60 $9.60 $6.85 $28.20 $5.10

Carry Forward $16.80 $14.94 $7.77 $9.44 $0.20 $0.75 $0.35

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REDUCTIONS MADE IN 2009

Reductions Previously Implemented

• DAC- 21 positions eliminated– 6 Administrative positions– 12 Classified positions – 3 Curriculum specialists

• Maintenance – 20 positions eliminated– Realized through centralized landscaping program

• Transportation – 39 positions eliminated– 15 Bus drivers– 20 Bus assistants– 4 Transportation office assistants

Reductions Previously Implemented (cont’d)

• School Sites -116 positions eliminated– 30 PAL assistants– 14 High school clerical positions– 28 ELL assistants– 7 High school SpED support clerical positions– 6 High school audio visual specialist positions– 21 Intervention specialists and high school

counselors/advisors– 10 Instructional Specialists

Not Implemented but approved in 2009

• Centralized Maintenance• Additional Reduction of 8 PAL Teachers• Reduce Library Assistants by 50%

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• Retirees moved from District plan to ASRS and retiree health care reduced and phased out

• Traditional health care plan considered a buy up plan and contributions to Health Savings Accounts reduced

• Reductions made to Special Education programs• Centralized Maintenance Program established• Part time custodians

Current Reductions for 2012-2013

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• Reductions made to PTC• Specials reduced• Revised classified staffing models for all

schools• Managed Document Services

Current Reductions for 2012-2013

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BUDGET COLLABORATION TEAM

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• Requested representation from all employee association groups as well as from work groups not represented

• Weekly meetings began in August• Established rubric for prioritizing reduction ideas– Higher numbers indicate higher support

• Established site on the portal for shared documents• Goal to establish prioritized list for Governing Board

for reductions if necessary

Team Overview

Guidance for Collaboration Team

• Global salary reductions are not being considered• Further employee health care benefit changes

are not being considered• Improved efficiencies to create salary

enhancements • Attracting and retaining employees remains our

number one priority• Evaluate District programming and goals; not

individuals

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Rubric Results and DiscussionRank Gr 1 Score Gr 1 Rank Gr 2 Score Gr 2 Rank Gr 3 Score Gr 3 Rank Gr 4 Score Gr 4 Rank Gr 5 Score Gr 5 Rank Gr 6 Score Gr 6

Close elementary 6 27 1 26 2 22 3 28 6 24 12 23Have HS Teacher teach 7 sect 4 30 5 26 2 29 7 24 1 32Increase Participation Fees 1 30 4 27 6 28Reduce Reading Specialists 7 23 9 23 10 26Elimination of Block 7 18 2 26 3 23 Relocate PTC 1 31 2 36Close DAC 3 30 1 33 Elem/HS Class size 3 33 4 29 Reduce Librarians 4 28 3 29Eliminate pull out Gifted Teachers 5 29 5 27 Reduce Nurses (LPN and RN)/assts. 8 25 8 26Gifted 5 30 15 21Four day weeks 3 30 14 20SIS Coordinator 1 36 Postage at HS 2 36 Transportation Efficiencies 2 31 Class Size HS 5 30Guidance Elementary 4 29Eliminate M&O contributions 6 27 Eliminate Band 7 27 Consolidate Aps 5 27 Asst. Principal HS 7 26Reduce DAC 9 26PE 7th and 8th only 4 24 Reduce PE 11 24Reduce courses HS 13 22HS Closure 8 19 Arts 16 14

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DEMOGRAPHICS AND ENROLLMENT - CHRISTIAN WILLIAMS

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• Conversations to Consider• Boundary Overview• Area Descriptions• Methodology• Housing• School Sites• Projections and Trends• Signature Programs

PUSD Demographics and Enrollment

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• Elementary School 33/ES Site 32• Deer Valley Rd./Williams Dr. Bridge (Crossriver)• Parkridge Enrollment• Elementary Boundaries (District Regions)• High School Attendance Boundaries• Open-Enrollment (In/Out)• Choice Areas and Program Locations• Regional Enrollment Decline/Facility Capacity

Conversations to Consider

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Boundary Overview-ES and HS

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• North/Northwest– Liberty and Sunrise Mountain

• Central/Southwest– Centennial, Peoria HS, and Kellis

• (Paseo Verde included for ES)

• East– Cactus and Ironwood

• (Paseo Verde not included in ES)

Area Descriptions

Southwest/Central

North/Northwest

East

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• Students who currently reside in the boundaries• Birth rates between 2006/07 and most current data available• 2009/10 to 2011/12 enrollment trends (40th Day)• Cohort mobility between schools, grades, and retention• In-District Open-Enrollment, Out of District Open-Enrollment,

Unorganized Territory Open-Enrollment• Projected housing units• Rate of housing construction• Student generation factors by housing type• Build-out analysis of available lands

Methodology-Components of Projection

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• Births have declined in all cities our District covers from 2007 until 2010

• Glendale and Youngtown steepest declines• Average District births have declined 16% from

baseline year of 2007• Enrollment is regional within the District and

contributes to a District total• New neighborhoods are younger, increase in

enrollment, and maturation over time

Methodology-Births and Enrollment

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• The rate of new home construction is up year over year but far below the boom

• The rate of new home construction should increase as we approach 2015/16

• New housing is not impacting all portions of the District• Most new housing is in the North/Northwest with some in

the Southwest• The District is approximately 50% built-out over 138 square

miles• We could add 14,000 units to the PUSD by 2022• The economy is a big determinant of housing

Housing-New Housing

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• Major Developments in Progress– Camino á Lago (south)– Crossriver– Rancho Cabrillo– The Meadows– Tierra Del Rio– VistanciaVillage and Blackstone– Vistancia (north of the CAP)

Housing-New Housing

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• Loop 303 Lone Mountain Exit• Deer Valley Road/Williams Drive Bridge– January 2015

Housing-Major Infrastructure Projects

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• Southwest– Rovey Farm Estates (E of 89th Ave and Emil Rovey)

• Central– Acoma (E of 75th Ave and Acoma)

• North– Camino á Lago South

School Sites-Property Owned

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• North– The Meadows (95th Ave and Williams)• Recommended Elementary 33/School Site 32• Projected to acquire before 2016

– Aloravita (79th Ave and Yearling)• Agreement extended through to 2019

School Sites-Future (North)

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School Sites-Future (North)

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• Northwest– Rancho Cabrillo (Range Mule and El Granada)

• Donated (may acquire within 6 months-3 year• In Rancho Cabrillo master plan (Happy Valley and Dysart)

– White Peak Drive (White Peak and Canyon Ranch)• Donated (as needed after platting)• In Vistancia’s upcoming Village (north of the CAP)

– Western Skies Drive High School Site (El Mirage and Western Skies)• Land set aside for purchase

School Sites-Future (Northwest)

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School Sites-Future (Northwest)

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School Sites-Potential (Northwest)

• Northwest– Lake Pleasant Heights• Negotiating 1-2 sites

– Saddleback Heights• Negotiating 1site• Development split with neighboring District

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Projections and Trends-North/Northwest

Schools Grades 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020* SFB Capacity

Apache K-8 807 795 773 778 772 789 687 1270

Coyote Hills K-8 1222 1141 1043 978 937 903 848 1386

Frontier K-8 1012 967 971 973 995 1057 1087 1200

Lake Pleasant K-8 723 964 1238 1503 1798 2009 2688 1200

Parkridge K-8 1147 1199 1184 1247 1313 1383 1566 1000

Vistancia K-8 903 859 853 978 1063 1101 1331 1200

Zuni Hills K-8 634 543 459 395 366 373 503 1200

North/Northwest Elementaries K-8 6448 6467 6520 6852 7245 7615 8709 8456


Liberty High School 9-12 1926 2030 2197 2394 2540 2689 3290 1800

Sunrise Mountain High School 9-12 1579 1511 1465 1378 1380 1348 1114 1800

North/Northwest Highs 9-12 3505 3541 3662 3772 3920 4037 4404 3600

*Enrollments do not include Truly Self-Contained Special Needs, UE, CP, PS, or CO students

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Projections and Trends-Southwest/Central


Alta Loma K-8 830 832 820 813 837 967 970 1000

Cheyenne K-8 776 727 677 632 604 592 660 1000

Cotton Boll K-8 926 931 924 902 920 921 898 1120

Country Meadows K-8 1146 1122 1078 1018 1000 990 1070 1386

Desert Harbor K-8 715 692 661 639 624 619 560 1000

Ira A. Murphy K-8 533 521 500 493 483 482 458 800

Oasis K-8 777 766 749 740 748 735 591 990

Paseo Verde K-8 760 757 727 707 685 689 708 1108

Peoria ES K-8 603 543 503 456 438 414 391 940

Santa Fe K-8 684 700 698 697 704 721 617 1000

Sky View K-8 506 508 513 543 587 582 542 1170

Sun Valley K-8 913 885 864 857 848 830 922 1356

Sundance K-8 683 682 677 665 662 661 649 1008

Southwest/Central Elementaries K-8 9852 9665 9391 9163 9140 9201 9035 13878


Centennial High School 9-12 2130 2095 2047 2040 2007 1952 1587 2092

Peoria High School 9-12 1606 1542 1384 1238 1146 1091 1402 2000

Raymond S Kellis High School 9-12 1818 1823 1804 1788 1762 1779 1457 1800

Southwest/Central Highs 9-12 5554 5460 5234 5066 4916 4822 4446 5892


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Projections and Trends-East


Canyon K-8 397 369 341 316 310 290 307 850

Copperwood K-8 922 919 919 912 930 935 909 800

Desert Palms K-8 548 541 542 531 535 534 557 920

Desert Valley K-8 525 516 514 498 495 497 507 830

Foothills K-8 582 571 551 526 511 519 489 1050

Heritage K-8 733 718 704 668 657 643 636 908

Kachina K-8 384 376 360 369 358 363 379 800

Marshall Ranch K-8 722 731 748 754 760 760 768 908

Oakwood K-8 887 924 954 992 1030 1073 807 990

Pioneer K-8 423 380 351 307 292 254 197 989

Sahuaro Ranch K-8 548 562 569 578 593 599 556 800

East Elementaries K-8 6671 6607 6554 6452 6471 6467 6114 9845


Cactus High School 9-12 1361 1284 1243 1238 1151 1101 1064 2117

Ironwood High School 9-12 2043 2007 1942 1935 1938 1946 1866 2120

East Highs 9-12 3404 3292 3185 3173 3088 3047 2931 4237


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Projections and Trends-District


North/Northwest Elementaries K-8 6448 6467 6520 6852 7245 7615 8709 8456

Southwest/Central Elementaries K-8 9852 9665 9391 9163 9140 9201 9035 13878

East Elementaries K-8 6671 6607 6554 6452 6471 6467 6114 9845

Peoria Traditional/ PTC+SMHS (7-8) K-8 248 312 343 363 374 395 443

District Elementaries K-8 23219 23052 22807 22830 23230 23677 24300 32179

North/Northwest Highs 9-12 3505 3541 3662 3772 3920 4037 4404 3600

Southwest/Central Highs 9-12 5554 5460 5234 5066 4916 4822 4446 5892

East Highs 9-12 3404 3292 3185 3173 3088 3047 2931 4237

Peoria TC 9-12 85 47 23 16 16 16 16

District Highs 9-12 12548 12340 12104 12028 11940 11922 11796 13729

District Total K-12 35767 35392 34911 34858 35169 35600 36097 45908


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Projections and Trends- Truly Self-Contained Special Needs

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• In-District Open Enrollment is currently up by more than 300 students

• Out-of-District Open-Enrollment is currently up by more than 100 students

• In-District students who attend their neighborhoods school is down by almost 200 students

• After 40th Day a year-to-year analysis will be conducted

Projections and Trends-Open-Enrollment

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Signature Program Analysis

Program Name

In-District Open Enrollment

Neighborhood School

Out of District Open-Enrollment

Unorganized Territory

Grand Total

Arts Institute 47 91 33 171CCDI 127 19 51 197Spanish 125 134 73 332Teams 18 105 41 164Traditional 168 TBD 7 36 211Gifted Academy 77 75 17 169University (7-8) 19 4 23University 24 8 6 38Ironwood IB 77 119 98 294

Participant 379 677 188 3 1247Sibling 157 285 81 523

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Signature Programs/Open-Enrollment

% of Variance Category Population Participating in Signature

Program Name

In-District Open Enrollment

Neighborhood School

Out of District Open-Enrollment

Unorganized Territory

Grand Total

Foothills 39% 24% 39% 29%Copperwood 43% 5% 25% 21%Santa Fe 64% 36% 65% 49%Heritage 33% 20% 25% 22%Peoria Traditional 92% 0% 92% 95%Apache 53% 13% 25% 0% 21%Sunrise (7-8) 95% 100% 96%Ironwood 30% 9% 19% 14%

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QUESTIONS

1 budget study session michael e finn. wide range of projections for next year – how do we plan...

Documents

current reductions

reductions staffing

topics slide

team overview slide

classified positions

high school clerical

administrative positions

bus assistants