09 om- project management

8/9/2019 09 OM- Project Management

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Two Biggest Projects of Humankind


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1.1. Grand Unified TheoryGrand Unified Theory


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2.2. Human Genome ProjectHuman Genome Project


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Goal is to insurethat objectives are achieved

on TIME

on BUDGET


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Project Management

Complex and numerous activities

Unique - a one time set of events

Finite - a begin and end date Limited resources and budget

Many people involved

Sequenced activities End product or service must result


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A Sample Project Organization

Sales

President

FinanceHuman

ResourcesEngineering

QualityControl

Production

TechnicianTest

EngineerPropulsionEngineer

Physiologist

ProjectManager

PsychologistStructuralEngineer

InspectionTechnician

Technician

Project 1

Project 2

ProjectManager


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Project Management Activities


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Planning

q Objectives

q Resources

q Workbreak-downschedule

q Organization

Scheduling

q Projectactivities

q Start &end times

q Network

Controlling

q Monitor,compare, revise,

action


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Project Planning, Scheduling, andProject Planning, Scheduling, andControllingControlling


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Define S.M.A.R.T. Project

ObjectivesSpecific

Measurable

Achievable

Realistic

Time Bounded


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Project Life CycleProject Life Cycle


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Project Life CycleProject Life Cycle

Concept

FeasibilityFeasibility

PlanningPlanning

ExecutionExecution

TerminationTermination

M

ana

ge

me

nt

Time, Operational, Financial, Technological


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The Four CornerstonesThe Four Cornerstones

of Project Managementof Project Management

Cost

Scope

Schedule

Quality


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Project Management ToolsProject Management Tools


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WBSWBS

Gantt ChartGantt Chart

CPMCPMPERTPERT

CrashingCrashing

Earned value MeasurementsEarned value Measurements


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A Gantt ChartA Gantt Chart

Popular tool for project schedulingPopular tool for project scheduling

Graph with bar for representing theGraph with bar for representing the

time for each tasktime for each taskProvides visual display of projectProvides visual display of project

scheduleschedule

Also shows slack for activitiesAlso shows slack for activitiesAmount of time activity can beAmount of time activity can bedelayed without delaying projectdelayed without delaying project


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A Gantt ChartA Gantt Chart| | | | |

Activity

Design houseand obtainfinancing

Lay foundation

Order andreceivematerials

Build house

Select paint

Select carpet

Finish work

00 22 44 66 88 1010

MonthMonth

MonthMonth

11 33 55 77 99

Figure 6.2Figure 6.2


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CPM/PERTCPM/PERT Critical Path Method (CPM)Critical Path Method (CPM)

DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)

Deterministic task timesDeterministic task times

Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)

US Navy, Booz, Allen & HamiltonUS Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton

Developed to manage the Polaris missileDeveloped to manage the Polaris missile

projectprojectMultiple task time estimatesMultiple task time estimates


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CPMCPM


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1 32

ActivityActivity

EventEvent


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Project Network for a HouseProject Network for a House

33

22 00

11

33

11 11

111 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay

foundationfoundation

Design houseDesign house

and obtainand obtain

financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect

carpetcarpetSelectSelect

paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse


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33

22 00

11

33

11 11

111 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay




financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect


paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse

E=0 E=3

E=5

E=5

E=6

E=8 E=9

L=9L=8

L=7

L=5

L=5

L=3L=0


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Critical PathCritical PathA path is a sequence of connectedA path is a sequence of connected

activities running from start to endactivities running from start to end

node in networknode in network

The critical path is theThe critical path is thepath with the longestpath with the longest

duration in the networkduration in the network

Project cannot beProject cannot be

completed in less thancompleted in less than

the time of the criticalthe time of the critical

pathpath


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33

22 00

11

33

11 11

111 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay




financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect


paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse

E=0 E=3

E=5

E=5

E=6

E=8 E=9

L=9L=8

L=7

L=5

L=5

L=3L=0


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The CriticalThe Critical

PathPath A:A: 1-2-3-4-6-71-2-3-4-6-7

3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 93 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 monthsmonths B:B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-71-2-3-4-5-6-7

3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 83 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 monthsmonths C:C: 1-2-4-6-71-2-4-6-7

3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 83 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 monthsmonths D:D: 1-2-4-5-6-71-2-4-5-6-7

3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 73 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 monthsmonths

33

22 00

11

33

11 11

111 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay




financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect


paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse


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ComputingComputing

Late TimesLate TimesLFLF6767 = 9 months= 9 months

LSLS6767 = LF= LF6767 -- tt6767 = 9 - 1 = 8 months= 9 - 1 = 8 months

LFLF5656 = minimum (LS= minimum (LS66) = 8 months) = 8 months


LFLF2424 = minimum (LS= minimum (LS44) = min(5, 6)) = min(5, 6)

= 5 months= 5 months


33

22 00

11

33

11 11

111 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay




financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect


paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse

1 2 4 6 7

3

5

3

2 0

1

3

1 1

1

ES = 3, EF = 5LS = 3, LF = 5( )

ES = 5, EF = 8

LS = 5, LF = 8( )

ES = 3, EF = 4

LS = 4, LF = 5( )ES = 0, EF = 3

LS = 0, LF = 3( )

ES = 5, EF = 5LS = 5, LF = 5( )

ES = 5, EF = 6

LS = 6, LF = 7( )

ES = 8, EF = 9

LS = 8, LF = 9( )ES = 6, EF = 7

LS =7, LF = 8( )

Early and Late Start and Finish Times


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Activity SlackActivity Slack

DataData33

22 00

11

33

11 11

11

1 2 4 6 7

3

5

LayLay




financingfinancing

Order andOrder and

receivereceive

materialsmaterials

DummyDummy

FinishFinish

workwork

SelectSelect


paintpaint

BuildBuild

househouse

ActivityActivity LSLS ESES LFLF EFEF SlacksSlacks

*1-2*1-2 00 00 33 33 00

*2-3*2-3 33 33 55 55 00

2-42-4 44 33 55 44 11

*3-4*3-4 55 55 55 55 00

4-54-5 66 55 77 66 11

*4-6*4-6 55 55 88 88 00

5-65-6 77 66 88 77 11

*6-7*6-7 88 88 99 99 00

* Critical path* Critical path


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PERTPERT


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Probabilistic TimeProbabilistic Time

EstimatesEstimatesReflect uncertainty of activity timesReflect uncertainty of activity times

Beta distribution is used in PERTBeta distribution is used in PERT


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Probabilistic TimeProbabilistic Time

EstimatesEstimatesReflect uncertainty of activity timesReflect uncertainty of activity times

Beta distribution is used in PERTBeta distribution is used in PERT

aa = optimistic estimate= optimistic estimate

mm = most likely time estimate= most likely time estimate

bb= pessimistic time estimate= pessimistic time estimate

wherewhere

Mean (expected time):Mean (expected time): tt==aa + 4+ 4mm ++ bb

66

Variance:Variance: 22 == bb -- aa66

22


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Activity EstimatesActivity Estimates

1 - 21 - 2 66 88 1010 88 0.440.44

1 - 31 - 3 33 66 99 66 1.001.00

1 - 41 - 4 11 33 55 33 0.440.44

2 - 52 - 5 00 00 00 00 0.000.002 - 62 - 6 22 44 1212 55 2.782.78

3 - 53 - 5 22 33 44 33 0.110.11

4 - 54 - 5 33 44 55 44 0.110.11

4 - 84 - 8 22 22 22 22 0.000.00

5 - 75 - 7 33 77 1111 77 1.781.78

5 - 85 - 8 22 44 66 44 0.440.44

8 - 78 - 7 00 00 00 00 0.000.00

6 - 96 - 9 11 44 77 44 1.001.00

7 - 97 - 9 11 1010 1313 99 4.004.00

TIME ESTIMATES (WKS)TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIMEMEAN TIME VARIANCEVARIANCE

ACTIVITYACTIVITY aa mm bb tt 22

2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8


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Southern Textile CompanySouthern Textile Company

SystemSystem

changeoverchangeover

2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8

ManualManual

TestingTesting

DummyDummy

SystemSystem

TrainingTraining

DummyDummySystemSystemTestingTesting

OrientationOrientation

PositionPositionrecruitingrecruiting

SystemSystem

developmentdevelopment

EquipmentEquipment

installationinstallation

Equipment testingEquipment testing

and modificationand modification

FinalFinal

debuggingdebugging

JobJobtrainingtraining

aa

bb

cc

dd

ee

ff

gg

hh

ii

jj kk

ll

mm

Example 6.1Example 6.1


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2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8

Early and Late TimesEarly and Late Times

For Activity 1-2For Activity 1-2

aa= 6,= 6, mm = 8,= 8, bb = 10= 10tt= = = 8 weeks= = = 8 weeks

aa + 4+ 4mm ++ bb

66

6 + 4(8) + 106 + 4(8) + 10

66

22 = = = week= = = weekbb -- aa66

2210 - 610 - 6

66

22 44

99


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2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8

Early and Late TimesEarly and Late Times

ACTIVITYACTIVITY tt 2 ESES EFEF LSLS LFLF SS1 - 21 - 2 88 0.440.44 00 88 11 99 11

1 - 31 - 3 66 1.001.00 00 66 00 66 00

1 - 41 - 4 33 0.440.44 00 33 22 55 22

2 - 52 - 5 00 0.000.00 88 88 99 99 112 - 62 - 6 55 2.782.78 88 1313 1616 2121 88

3 - 53 - 5 33 0.110.11 66 99 66 99 00

4 - 54 - 5 44 0.110.11 33 77 55 99 22

4 - 84 - 8 22 0.000.00 33 55 1414 1616 1111

5 - 75 - 7 77 1.781.78 99 1616 99 1616 005 - 85 - 8 44 0.440.44 99 1313 1212 1616 33

7 - 87 - 8 00 0.000.00 1313 1313 1616 1616 33

6 - 96 - 9 44 1.001.00 1313 1717 2121 2525 88

7 - 97 - 9 99 4.004.00 1616 2525 1616 2525 00


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2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8

ES = 9, EF = 16ES = 9, EF = 16

LS = 9, LF = 16LS = 9, LF = 16

ES = 0, EF = 8ES = 0, EF = 8

LS = 1, LF = 9LS = 1, LF = 9

ES = 0, EF = 6ES = 0, EF = 6

LS = 0, LF = 6LS = 0, LF = 6ES = 6, EF = 9ES = 6, EF = 9

LS = 6, LF = 9LS = 6, LF = 9

ES = 0, EF = 3ES = 0, EF = 3

LS = 2, LF = 5LS = 2, LF = 5

ES = 3, EF = 7ES = 3, EF = 7

LS = 5, LF = 9LS = 5, LF = 9

ES = 9, EF = 13ES = 9, EF = 13

LS = 12, LF = 16LS = 12, LF = 16

ES = 8, EF = 8ES = 8, EF = 8

LS = 9, LF = 9LS = 9, LF = 9

ES = 13, EF = 13ES = 13, EF = 13

LS = 16, LF = 16LS = 16, LF = 16

ES = 3, EF = 5ES = 3, EF = 5

LS = 14, LF = 16LS = 14, LF = 16

ES = 16, EF = 25ES = 16, EF = 25

LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25

ES = 13, EF = 17ES = 13, EF = 17

LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25

ES = 8, EF = 13ES = 8, EF = 13LS = 16, LF = 21LS = 16, LF = 21

88

55

44

66 33 77

99

33

22

44 00

00


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2

4

6

1 73 5 9

8

ES = 9, EF = 16ES = 9, EF = 16

LS = 9, LF = 16LS = 9, LF = 16

ES = 0, EF = 8ES = 0, EF = 8

LS = 1, LF = 9LS = 1, LF = 9

ES = 0, EF = 6ES = 0, EF = 6

LS = 0, LF = 6LS = 0, LF = 6ES = 6, EF = 9ES = 6, EF = 9

LS = 6, LF = 9LS = 6, LF = 9

ES = 0, EF = 3ES = 0, EF = 3

LS = 2, LF = 5LS = 2, LF = 5

ES = 3, EF = 7ES = 3, EF = 7

LS = 5, LF = 9LS = 5, LF = 9

ES = 9, EF = 13ES = 9, EF = 13

LS = 12, LF = 16LS = 12, LF = 16

ES = 8, EF = 8ES = 8, EF = 8

LS = 9, LF = 9LS = 9, LF = 9

ES = 13, EF = 13ES = 13, EF = 13

LS = 16, LF = 16LS = 16, LF = 16

ES = 3, EF = 5ES = 3, EF = 5

LS = 14, LF = 16LS = 14, LF = 16

ES = 16, EF = 25ES = 16, EF = 25

LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25

ES = 13, EF = 17ES = 13, EF = 17

LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25

ES = 8, EF = 13ES = 8, EF = 13LS = 16, LF = 21LS = 16, LF = 21

88

55

44

66 33 77

99

33

22

44 00

00

2 = 2 + 2 + 2 + 2

= 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00= 6.89 weeks

13 35 57 79

Total project variance


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Probabilistic NetworkProbabilistic Network

AnalysisAnalysisDetermine probability that project isDetermine probability that project is

completed within specified timecompleted within specified time

wherewhere

== ttpp = project mean time= project mean time ==project standard deviationproject standard deviation

xx== proposed project timeproposed project time

ZZ== number of standard deviationsnumber of standard deviationsxx

is from meanis from mean

ZZ==xx--


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Normal Distribution OfNormal Distribution Of

Project TimeProject Time

== ttpp TimeTimexx

Z

ProbabilityProbability

Figure 6.12Figure 6.12


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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example

What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project

is completed within 30 weeks?is completed within 30 weeks?


= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 30= 30

PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks)


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PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks) 22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks

ZZ==

==

= 1.91= 1.91

xx-- 30 - 2530 - 25

2.622.62


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PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks) 22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks

ZZ==

==

= 1.91= 1.91

xx-- 30 - 2530 - 25

2.622.62

From Table, aFrom Table, aZZscore of 1.91score of 1.91

corresponds to a probability of 0.4719.corresponds to a probability of 0.4719.

ThusThus PP(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719


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0.3729


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22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks

ZZ==

==

= -1.14= -1.14

xx-- 22 - 2522 - 25

2.622.62



0.3729


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22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks

ZZ==

==

= -1.14= -1.14

xx-- 22 - 2522 - 25

2.622.62

From Table A.1, aFrom Table A.1, a ZZscore of -1.14score of -1.14

corresponds to a probability of 0.3729.corresponds to a probability of 0.3729.

ThusThus PP(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271



0.3729

09 om- project management

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