05 perception decision making ok std

8/11/2019 05 Perception Decision Making Ok Std

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PERSEPSI DAN PEMBUATAN

KEPUTUSAN [email protected]

2014


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Learning Objectives

1. Defineperception and explain the factors that influence it.

2. Explain attribution theory and list the three determinants of attribution.

3. Identify the shortcuts individuals use in making judgments about others.

4. Explain the link between perception and decision-making.5. Apply the rational model of decision-making and contrast it with

bounded rationality and intuition.

6. List and explain the common decision biases or errors.

7. Explain how individual differences and organizational constraints affectdecision-making.

8. Contrast the three ethical decision-criteria.

9. Define creativity and discuss the three-component model of creativity.


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Perception and OB

Perception is a process by which individuals

organize and interpret their sensory impressions

in order to give meaning to their environment. It is important to the study of OB because

peoples behaviors are based on their perception

of what reality is, not on reality itself.


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Factors that influence Perception


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Attribution Theory and

Three determinants of attribution

Attribution theory suggests that when we observe an

individuals behavior, we attempt to determine

whether it was internally or externally caused.

Determination depends on three factors:

Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in

different situations

Consensus: response in the same as others to samesituation

Consistency: response in the same way over time


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Determinants of attribution

Clarification of the differences between internal

and external causation:

Internally caused - those that are believed tobe under the personal control of the

individual.

Externally caused - resulting from outsidecauses.


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Attribution Theory

E X H I B I T 6-2


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Attribution errors and biases

Fundamental Attribution Error

A tendency to underestimate the influence

of external factors and overestimate theinfluence of internal or personal factors

when making judgments about behavior

of others.


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Attribution errors and biases

Self-serving Bias

The tendency for individuals

to attribute their ownsuccesses to internal factors

while putting the blame for

failures on external factors.


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Shortcuts individuals use in making

judgments about others

Selective Perception

Any characteristic that makes a person,

object, or event stand out will increase theprobability that it will be perceived.

Since we cant observe everything going on

about us, we engage in selective perception. A classic example:

Dearborn and Simon


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Halo Effect

The halo effect occurs when we draw a

general impression on the basis of a singlecharacteristic.

The reality of the halo effect was confirmed

in a classic study.


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Contrast Effects

We do not evaluate a person in isolation.

Our reaction to one person is influenced byother persons we have recently encountered.

For example, an interview situation in which one

sees a pool of job applicants can distort perception.

Distortions in any given candidates evaluation can

occur as a result of his or her place in the interview

schedule.


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Stereotyping

Judging someone on the basis of our perception of

the group to which he or she belongs.

This is a means of simplifying a complex world,

and it permits us to maintain consistency.

From a perceptual standpoint, if people expect to

see these stereotypes, that is what they willperceive.


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Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations

Employment Interview

Evidence indicates that interviewers makeperceptual judgments that are often

inaccurate.

Agreement among interviewers is oftenpoor.


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Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations

Performance Expectations

Evidence demonstrates that people will attemptto validate their perceptions of reality, even

when those perceptions are faulty.

Self-fulfilling prophecy or Pygmalion effect

characterizes the fact that peoples expectationsdetermine their behavior. Expectations become

reality.


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Performance Evaluation

An employees performance appraisal is very much

dependent on the perceptual process.

Many jobs are evaluated in subjective terms.

Subjective measures are, by definition, judgmental.

What the evaluator perceives to be good or bad

employee characteristics or behaviors willsignificantly influence the outcome of the appraisal.


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Perception and Decision-making

Top managers determine goals, products to offer, how

to finance operations, or locate a new plant.

Middle- and lower-level managers determine

production schedules, select employees, and decide

about pay raises.

Non-managerial employees make decisions to come to

work on any given day, the effort to put forward atwork, and to comply with requests made by the boss.


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Perception and Decision-making

Empowering non-managerial employees with job-

related decision-making historically reserved for

managers.

Decision-making occurs as a reaction to a problem.

Every decision requires interpretation and evaluation

of information.

Alternatives will be developed, and the strengths andweaknesses of each will need to be evaluated.


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How individual differences and organizational

constraints affect decision-making

Personality

Conscientiousness

Achievement-Striving

Dutifulness

Gender Mental Ability


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How individual differences and organizational

constraintsaffect decision-making

Cultural Differences

Performance Evaluations

Reward Systems

Formal Regulations

System Imposed Time Constraints Historical Precedents


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Creativity and three-component model of creativity

CREATIVITY

CreativeThinking

Skills

Expertise

Intrinsic

TaskMotivation


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kReAtiViTAs The ability to produce novel and useful

ideas.

Proses penciptaan produk, gagasan,atau prosedur baru dan orisinal, dansecara potensial relevan atau berguna

bagi sebuah organisasi.


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Beberapa Fakta TentangPengambilan Keputusan (1)

Membuat keputusan adalah salahsatu kegiatan manajerial yg paling

penting. Secara implisit, orang cenderung

memilih opsi favorit dalam tahapawal proses pengambilan keputusan.


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Beberapa Fakta TentangPengambilan Keputusan (2)

Keputusan seseorang bisa menjadi biaskarena tendensi untuk tidak

mempertimbangkan semua informasi ygrelevan.

Keputusan kelompok umumnya lebih baikdilakukan terhadap complex decision tasks,sementara keputusan individual biasanyalebih efisien.


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Keputusan (decision)

Sebuah pilihan dari dua atau lebih

alternatif (a choice from two or more

alternatives).


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Proses Pengambilan-Keputusan

Serangkaian langkah yg meliputi identifikasi

masalah, pemilihan satu alternatif, dan

evaluasi keefektifan keputusan(A set of steps including identifying a

problem, selecting an alternative, and

evaluating the decisions effectiveness)


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Masalah (problem)

Kesenjangan antara kondisi saat ini

dan kondisi yang diinginkan

(a discrepancy between an existing anda desired state of affairs).


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TIGA Komponen Keputusan

1. KRITERIA standar yg digunakan pembuatkeputusan utk mengevaluasi alternatif. Bisa jugadisebut kepentingan.

2. ALTERNATIF tindakan spesifik atau pilihan ygdipertimbangkan.

3. KEPERCAYAAN TTG SEBAB AKIBAT pengetahuan

(kognisi) yg menghubungkan alternatif tertentudgn kriteria tertentu (disebut model, teori,kepercayaan, atau asumsi).


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The Decision Making Process Map...


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Langkah-langkah dalam MODELPENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN RASIONAL

1. Definisikan masalah,

2. Identifikasikan kriteria,

3. Alokasikan bobot untuk tiap kriteria,

4. Kembangkan alternatif,

5. Evaluasi alternatif,

6. Pilih alternatif terbaik.


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Keputusan Rasional dibuat berdasarkan

asumsi-asumsi berikut:

Masalah jelas dan tidak ambigu. Yang ingin dicapai adalah satu tujuan yg

didefinisikan secara jelas. Semua alternatif dan konsekuensi diketahui. Preferensi jelas. Preferensi konstan dan stabil.

Tidak ada kendala biaya dan waktu.Most decisions in the real world dont follow the

rational model.


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MODEL RASIONAL dalam

PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

Problem

Identifikasikan dan

Definisikan Masalah

Kembangkan

Alternatif

A1

A2

A3

A4

An

Evaluasi

Alternatif

+

A1 A1

A2 A2

An An

Criteria

Beri Bobot

Kriteria

T E C H

Tetapkan Kriteria

Keputusan

Choice

Buat Keputusan

Optimal


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Problem

Identifikasikan dan

Definisikan Masalah

Para wiraniaga saya

memerlukan komputer baru

T E C H

Tetapkan KriteriaKeputusan

Harga

Berat

Garansi

Tipe layar Keandalan

Ukuran layar

Criteria

Beri BobotKriteria

A

Keandalan

Ukuran layar Garansi

Berat

Harga

Jenis layar

10

8 5

5

4

3


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Kembangkan

alternatif

Acer Compaq NEC

Fujitsu SonyToshiba Dell

Evaluasi

alternatif

Acer Compaq NEC


Choice

Buat KeputusanOptimal

Acer Compaq NEC


Implementasialternatif

A


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Nilai berdasarkan kriteria

Model

Kean-

dalan

Ukuran

layarGaransi Berat Harga

Tipe

layar

AcerTravelmate

8 3 5 10 3 5

Compaq

Pressario

8 5 10 5 6 5

NEC Versa 10 8 5 10 3 10

FujitsuLifebook

8 5 5 10 3 10

Sony Vaio6 8 5 10 6 10

ToshibaSatellite

10 8 5 5 3 10

Dell 2 10 5 10 10 10


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Contoh Teknik Evaluasi Alternatif:Analitycal Hierarchy Matrix

0 0 0

0

0 0

1

1

1

1 1

1

A B C D

Alternative A

Alternative B

Alternative C

Alternative D

Alternatives

0

2

3

Row

Sum

4th

2nd

1st

Rank

1 3rd


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Thomas Saaty's

Analytical Hierarchy Matrix

Cantumkan alternatif dlm kolom dan baris spt dalam matriks.Mulai dr Alternatif A, bergeraklah ke setiap kolom danbandingkan tiap alternatif dgn alternatif lainnya.

Bilaalternatif yg sedang dipertimbangkan lebih baik dari yglain, berilah alternatif itu skor 1.

Bilaalternatif lebih rendahnya nilainya dari yg lain, berilahalternatif itu skor 0.

Tambahkanskor utk tiap baris/alternatif; skor tertinggi adalah

alternatif yg dinilai paling baik berdasarkan kriteria yg Andagunakan. Dlm matriks di atas, Alternatif Cmemiliki skortertinggi. Jadi, inilah alternatif yg dinilai paling baik.


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RASIONALITAS TERBATAS

Rasionalitas Terbatas

Individu membuat keputusan dgn membangun model

yg disederhanakan, yg mengekstrak unsur-unsur

esensial dari masalah tanpa memandang seluruh

kompleksitas masalah tsb.

Satisficing

Mengidentifikasikan sebuah solusi yang lumayanbaik (good enough).


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MODEL RASIONALITAS TERBATAS

Tentukankebutuhan

utk membuatkeputusan

SederhanakanMasalah

TetapkanKriteria yg

Memuaskan

Identifikasikanalternatifyg

terbatas

Bandingkanalternatif

dgn kriteria

PerluasPencarianAlternatif

Pilih AlternatifPertama yangCukup Baik

Adaalternatif yg

memuaskan?

Ya

Tidak


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The common decision biases or errors

Overconfidence Bias

Individuals whose intellectual and interpersonal

abilities are weakest are most likely to

overestimate their performance and ability.

Anchoring Bias

Fixating on initial information as a starting point

and failing to adequately adjust for subsequent

information.


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Confirmation Bias

Type of selective perception.

Seek out information that reaffirms pastchoices, and discount information that

contradicts past judgments.

Availability Bias Tendency for people to base judgments on

information that is readily available.


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Escalation of Commitment

Staying with a decision even when there is

clear evidence that its wrong.

Randomness Error

Decision-making becomes impaired when

we try to create meaning out of randomevents.


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Risk Aversion

Risk-averse employees will stick with the

established way of doing their jobs, rather than

taking a chance on innovative or creative

methods.

Hindsight Bias

Tendency to believe falsely that one hasaccurately predicted the outcome of an event,

after that outcome is actually known.


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Reducing Biases and Errors


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Pembuatan Keputusan Secara Intuitif

(Intuitive Decision Making)

Suatu proses bawah-sadar

(subconscious) dalam membuat

keputusan berdasarkan pengalamandan accumulated judgment.

Secara sadar tidakbersandar padaproses berpikir rasional atau linier.


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Rational model of decision-making

and intuition

Intuition

Intuition occurs outside conscious thought; it relies on

holistic associations, or links between disparate pieces

of information; its fast; and its affectively charged,

meaning it usually engages the emotions.

The key is neither to abandon nor rely solely on

intuition but to supplement it with evidence and goodjudgment.

A k k I i i


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Aspek-aspek Intuisi

Managers makedecisions on ethical

values or culture

Values or ethics-based decisions

INTUITION

Managers make decisionsbased on their past

experiences

Experience-baseddecisions

Affect-initiateddecisions

Cognitive-based

decisions

Subconscious mental

processing

Managers use data fromsubconscious mind to help them

make decisions

Managers make decisionsbased on skills, knowledge, and

training

Managers makedecisions based onfeelings or emotion

Sumber: L.A. Burke & M.K. Miller. 1999


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How common is

intuitive decision making?

Sebuah survei thd manajer dan karyawan

mengungkapkan bahwa sepertigadari

mereka menyandarkan diri pada intuisi,atau gut feeling, ketimbang pengambilan

keputusan secara rasional (kognitif).


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Perbandingan Tipe Thinkingdan Feeling

Characteristic Thinking types Feeling types

Focus Logic of situation, truth,organization principles

Human values and needs,harmony, feelings, emotions

Time orientation Past, present, future Past

Work environment Businesslike, impersonal, treatothers fairly, well organized

Naturally friendly, personalemphasizes harmony, care andconcern for others

Strengths Good at logical organizations,tends to be firm and tough-minded,rational, objective, predicts logical

results of decisions

Enjoys pleasing others,sympathetic, loyal, draws outthe feelings of others, takes

interest in people as people

Possible weaknesses Overly analytical, unemotional, tooserious, often rigid, may try toimpose ideas

Sentimental, may postponeunpleasant task, may avoidconflict


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PRAKONDISIPENYELESAIAN MASALAH

Ada KESENJANGAN

Ada KESADARANttg kesenjangan

Ada MOTIVASI

Ada KEMAMPUANdan SUMBER

DAYA


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Reaksi terhadap masalah

Complacency: tak melihat tanda-tanda

Defensive avoidance: abaikan pentingnya masalah

atau abaikan tanggung jawab utk bertindak

rasionalisasi (Tak mungkin terjadi pd saya)

penundaan (Bisa diurus nanti )

pengalihan (Bukan urusan saya)

Panic

Deciding to decide


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Bagaimana Menemukan Masalah?

PENYIMPANGAN DARI

PENGALAMAN MASA LALU

PENYIMPANGAN DARIRENCANA

ORANG atau PIHAK LAIN

KINERJA PESAING


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Three ethical decision-criteria

Utilitarian criterion--decisions are made solely on the

basis of their outcomes or consequences.

Focus on rights--calls on individuals to make

decisions consistent with fundamental liberties and

privileges as set forth in documents such as the Bill of

Rights.

Justice--impose and enforce rules fairly andimpartially to ensure or an equitable distribution of

benefits and costs.


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Ethics and National Culture

There are no global ethical standards.

The ethical principles of global organizations

that reflect and respect local cultural normsare necessary for high standards and

consistent practices.

05 perception decision making ok std

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