lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterized by high ash, sulfur and moisture content. Because of increasing energy consumption, environmental pollution is becoming a serious problem in the future for the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Especially hydropower, biomass, geothermal, solar and wind energy should be considered and seriously supported by governments and private sectors.

04/02176 Estimating the rebound effect in US manufacturing energy consumption Bentzen, J. et al. Energy Economies, 2004, 26, (1), 123-i34. The energy price shocks of the 1970s are usually assumed to have increased the search for new energy saving technologies where eventual gains in energy efficiencies will reduce the real per unit price of energy services and hence, the consumption of energy will rise and partially offset the initial reduction in the usage of energy sources. This is the 'rebound effect', which is estimated for the US manufacturing sector using time series data applying the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). When allowing for asymmetric price effects the rebound effect is found to be approximately 24% for the US manufacturing sector.

04102177 Integration of national and regional energy development programs in Baltic States Klevas, V. and Antinucci, M. Energy Policy, 2004, 32, (3), 345-355. The report is dedicated to the presentation of the general framework of regional energy planning activities in Baltic States. The objective is to provide information on the context, in which regional energy policy instruments have to operate, and which has to be taken into consideration when compiling energy development measures for regional development and structural funds. The major issue of the publication is to discuss perspective of the formation methodology for energy management integration into development of regional planning documents. The main objective of this publication is to make a brief overview of what are the prospects of regional energy development. The place of municipal and regional energy development programs in general energy investment strategy is defined. The guidelines for regional energy programs are presented.

04102178 Its present state and future Seki, K. Kami Pa Gikyoshi, 2003, 57, (5), 619-624. (In Japanese) Japan ratified the Kyoto protocol, which aims to reduce the discharge of carbon dioxide into environment and to prevent the global warming. Now, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is working to bring in a so-called coal tax, which will be expected to be as much as 700 yen per ton of coal. This tax will be a heavy burden to the pulp and paper industry. RPF, refuse paper and plastic fuel, is one of prospective substitutes to coal. The author will introduce the development and future of that pioneering job.

04102179 Joint implementation in energy between the EU and Russia. Outlook and potential Laroui, F. et al. Energy Policy, 2004, 32, (7), 899-914. At the seventh Conference of Parties in Marrakech (COP 7) a consensus was reached on the rules, the modalities and the guidelines of the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper the outlook and potential of one of the flexibility mechanisms is assessed, namely the joint implementation (JI) between the European Union and Russia. It is shown that both parties have all the incentives to start working on JI, although there are obstacles for its implementation.

04•02180 Modernization of local energy systems Lindenberger, D. et al. Energy, 2004, 29, (2), 245-256. This paper analyses modernization options for a local energy system, including both demand reduction and supply-related measures. The high-resolution optimization model deco (dynamic energy, emission, and cost optimization) is extended by developing techniques to support conventional insulation measures, transparent insulation, and switch- able transparent insulation. Supply-side technologies include gas-fired boilers, heat pumps, solar collectors, and the cogeneration of heat and electricity. Compared to common practice comprising oil-fired boilers and public grid electricity, gas-fired cogeneration is a favourable option, although sensitive to electricity tariffs. Given the current prices of fossil fuels, extensive retrofitted thermal insulation would reduce CO2-equivalent emissions by about 20% and increase overall costs by 25%.

17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts)

04/02181 Optimal supply and demand investments in municipal energy systems Rolfsman, B. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45, (4), 595- 611. In many municipalities, there are district heating networks, which are quite commonly supplied by combined heat and power plants (CHP). A district heating network contains buildings of different types. In this paper, one such municipal energy system is analysed. In order to provide space heating and domestic hot water, investments could be made on the supply side in power plants, or on the demand side in the buildings, for example in the form of extra wall insulation. The electricity from the CHP plants is supplied to the municipality but can also be sold to the electricity market, and electricity can, of course, also be bought from the market. The variation in price on the spot market over any given day is significant. The need for district heat in the building stock also varies, for example due to climatic conditions. The energy system in the case study is analysed with a mixed integer linear programming model. The model has 3 h time steps in order to reflect diurnal variations, and an entire year is analysed. A case study is presented for the city of Link6ping in Sweden. On the demand side, the options are: extra wall insulation, extra attic insulation and better types of windows. The building stock is divided into nine categories.

04/02182 Quantifying the severity of fuel poverty, its relationship with poor housing and reasons for non- investment in energy-saving measures in Ireland Healy, J. D. and Clinch, J. P. Energy Policy, 2004, 32, (2), 207-220. Fuel poverty has generally been calculated by quantifying the number of households spending in excess of 10% of income on home heating. This definition has a number of significant practical and scientific limitations. This paper employs self-reported data to calculate the severity of fuel poverty in Ireland to identify chronic fuel-poor households from occasional sufferers. It also assesses domestic energy-efficiency levels. Ireland is a useful case study as it demon- strates the highest variations in seasonal mortality and morbidity in northern Europe, both of which are associated with fuel poverty. Ireland is also experiencing extreme difficulties meeting its environ- mental emissions targets in light of recent spectacular economic growth. Reducing fuel poverty would lower energy-related emissions, assisting policy makers achieve these challenging targets. Furthermore, little empirical research has been undertaken on fuel poverty in Ireland. This paper identifies key social groups at risk by conducting detailed socio-economic and socio-demographic analyses. The relation- ship between fuel poverty and adverse housing conditions (damp, condensation) is also examined. Moreover, the reasons behind house- holders not investing in energy-saving measures are reported. The results show that Ireland suffers from similar levels of fuel poverty as the UK, with low-income households suffering the greatest. The key policy implications are outlined.

04102183 Results of the fifth follow-up to JPA's voluntary action plan and report of energy situation in pulp and paper industry in Japan Aida, K. Kami Pa Gikyoshi, 2003, 57, (5), 607-618. (In Japanese) The Japanese Paper Association (JPA) has been actively working to save energy since 1997 when it established its 'Voluntary Action Plan on Environmental issues'. JPA declared its policy of restraining CO2 emissions as one of the actions: by 2010, to reduce the unit of fossil energy for paper products by 10% from that of 1990 level. Since 1998, JPA was following through on the actual results of the unit of energy in the year, and was publishing its results compared with that in 1990 every year. The following are the results for 2001 and the report of energy situation in pulp and paper industry in Japan. The unit of fossil energy in 2001 was smoothly reduced by 7.3% from the level in 1990. However, the reduction in a unit of CO2 emissions remained 4.0% because cost competitive coals were largely used. Paper and paper- board production increased by 8.1% in 2001 compared to that of 1990 level, whereas, increase in CO2 emissions remained at 3.8% showing that the pulp and paper industry decreased by 3.3% and electrical companies contribute to reducing the remaining 1.0% (from effective generating and transmission electricity). According to 27 companies that replied to the questionnaires, a total of 16.9 billion yen was invested in energy saving measures for 2001 and the crude oil equivalent of energy saved reached 193 thousand kilolitres per year. As far as the estimation from 23 companies, 101.9 billion yen will be invested and 523 thousand kilolitres per year will be saved from 2001 onwards.

04/02184 The 20 year evolution of an energy conversion course at the United States Military Academy Bailey, M. et al. Energy Conversion and Management, 2004, 45, (4), 495-509. Over the past several years, an energy conversion course offered by the Mechanical Engineering Program at the United States Military Academy in West Point, New York, has evolved into a cohesive series

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