Man Made Effects on Space Weather

Maj. Roger Hill / NSSA

Dr. Mark Pesses / SAIC

Presented To:

Dr. Hastings

Chief Scientist of the Air Force

Introduction

• The National Security Space Architect (NSSA) has completed a 16 month project of designing a multi-service, multi-agency space weather (SWx) architecture.

• The study addressed space weather effects on all anticipated elements in the 2010 to 2025 timeframe that would be need to support the DoD and other US assets used for operations, navigation communications and associated ground elements.

Manmade Influences Tiger Team

• The Chief Scientist of the Air Force requested that the SWx architecture study include potential impacts on space weather due to manmade influences on the near-Earth space environment. These impacts could be significant drivers within the architecture alternatives.

• To ensure these concerns were addressed, and to fully explore the trade-space during development of the SWx architecture, a Manmade Influences Tiger Team (M2IT2) was established to expand the original study.

MMITT Charter

• Identify and understand manmade effects on the near-earth environment and their relationship to space weather effects

• Identify the sensors and models currently used to locate and assess manmade effects and determine their impact on the environment

• Assess the candidate space weather architectures to determine their ability to meet future system needs for detecting man-made influences on space weather

MMITT Charter

– Determine what is need to be added to the candidate architectures to be able to detect and characterize man-made changes to the SWx environment

• Recommend additional sensors and models where necessary to extend the capability of SWx architecture to include the influence of manmade effects on the natural geospace environment

– Coordinate findings with the Integration Panel, and Design, Cost, and Analysis Teams

Space Weather Overview

This section reviews the Geospaceenvironment associated with both natural andmanmade space weather phenomena.

The natural SWx phenomena discussed aresolar flares; magnetic storms and the Appletonequatorial anomaly.

The man-made phenomena discussed are highaltitude nuclear explosions (HANE);ionospheric heaters; chemical releases inspace and space-based particle beams.

Solar Flares

The duration of a solar flare is highly variable and in softx-ray frequencies ranges from seconds to hours. Theentire sunlit hemisphere of the Earth is exposed to solarflare electromagnetic emissions.

Solar flares frequently results in the formation of a shockwave that travels at speeds of several 103 km/s. Thisshock accelerates and coronal particles in its path. Oftenthese accelerated particles escape into interplanetaryspace and propagate into Geospace. The highest energyelectrons arrive at Geospace within 15 minutes of thebeginning of a flare and the highest energy ions withinseveral hours.

Magnetic Storms

A magnetic storm begins when a coronal mass ejection(CME) traveling supersonically throughout the solar windcollides with the Earth’s geomagnetic field at a time whenthe north-south component of the interplanetary magneticfield is southward. Several days prior to the beginning of amagnetic storm in Geospace, charged particles acceleratedin the CME- generated shock can arrive at Geospace andgain access to Earth the same way solar flare energeticparticles do.

Magnetic storms can persist from 1 - 4 days. Substormscan continue for 1-2 weeks. New radiation belts can last for6 months - 2 years.

Appleton Anomaly

The Appleton equatorial anomaly regions are bands ofpost-sunset ionospheric plasma instabilities thatresulting in scintillation in the very high frequency(VHF) to L-band region occuring on both sides of themagnetic equator. The plasma instabilities areproduced by the rapid decrease in electron densityafter the Sun sets. In the Appleton Anomaly there isa 50% probability that noise to signal ratio fromscintillation will be greater than 0.9 on any givennight.

HANE

The electromagnetic radiation released from the hotfireball of High Altitude Nuclear Explosions (HANEs)includes x-rays and gamma rays whose duration are on theorder of nanoseconds. In addition, heating of theatmosphere creates infrared radiation that can persist forminutes and EMP.The most important particles from the bomb include:macroscopic radioactive debris fragments from the nucleardevice, beta electrons created as a result of radioactivedecay, and neutrons. The environment produced by aHANE and the regions of space effected depends stronglyon the location of the burst and the fission and fusionyields of the device.

Ionospheric Heaters

Both the US and Russia are conducting experimentalresearch on modifying or controlling regions of theionosphere. A number of ionosphere modificationtechniques have been successfully demonstrated byRussia. Military application of the above techniquesincludes production of virtual antenna for LFcommunications; and creating an artificial ionospherefor HF ducted communications. One of the high-payoff capabilities of creating RF reflecting layers(mirrors) for OTH communications in the ELF to 2GHz frequency range.

HAARP

In the US ionosphere modification research isunderway at the High-frequency Active AuroralResearch Program (HAARP) site near Gakina, Alaska.The HAARP site uses a large phased array antennafield to concentrate and focus up to 3.6 MWatts in 2.8- 10 MHz radiation on a small volume in theionosphere.

However, ionospheric heaters are not practical forman-made effects because the technologyconcentrates only 10 –6 Watts per cc into theionosphere.

Chemical Releases & Particle Beams

Chemical releases in space can produce aurora andother SWx associated phenomena observable fromEarth, but it’s only temporary and localized.

Experiments conducted on the space shuttle haveshown that particle beams are not an effectivemethod of altering the space environment exceptthat in the immediate vicinity of the beam platform.

Electromagnetic Radiation

• The EM radiation associated with manmade and SWx phenomena differ in three very important ways:

• The x-ray and gamma-ray signature of SWx phenomena persist for seconds to minutes compared to nanoseconds for HANEs.

• Radiation from HANEs decreases as the square of the distance from the burst point, while radiation from flares is essentially constant throughout the sunlit hemisphere of Geospace.

• Radiation from flares effects the entire sunlit hemisphere while the radiation from HANEs and chemical releases is limited to the line-of-site or magnetic field contained footprint, and is much smaller.

PHOTONTYPE

SOLARFLARE

MAGNETICSTORM

HANE IONOSPHHEATER

CHEMICALRELEASE

GAMMA Rarelysec,0.5 -100 MeV

No Always10 – 20 nsec0.5 -10 MeV

NoNo

X-RAY Alwaysminsup to MeV

DuringIntense Auroraseveral keV

Always10 –20 usec< 15 keV

Yes ?

UV Alwayshours

During Auroradays

AlwaysMinuteslocalized

Yes YesIn sun-lithemisphere

VISIBLE insignificant During Auroradays

AlwaysMinuteslocalized

Yes YesIn sun-lithemisphere

IR ? During Auroradays

AlwaysHourslocalized

Yes Yes

RF-uWAVE

MHz - GHzsec to hours

Background noise

AlwaysMHzmonths

Yes ?

EMP SometimesSGEMP

SometimesPower grid

AlwaysMsec100 V/m

Potential No

Electromagnetic Radiation

Particle Radiation

• The major differences between manmade and natural phenomena are: – HANEs do not produce energetic ions except for alpha

particles while flares and magnetic storms produce a multitude of ion types to include energetic H, He, C, N, O and Fe ions; and

– HANEs produce antimatter while natural SWx events do not.

– HANES produce a much higher number of highly energetic electrons than do natural phenomena.

PARTICLETYPE

SOLARFLARE

MAGNETICSTORM

HANE IONOSPHHEATER

CHEMICALRELEASE

ELECTRONS Yesday< 10 MeV

Yesdays-months< 100 MeV

Alwaysmonths - yearsto 7 or 20 MeV

Yes Yes

IONS H - Fedays< 100 MeV

H-Feweeks-months < 1 GeV

AlwaysAlpha Particlesmonths - yearsseveral MeV

Yes YesIn sun-lithemisphere

NEUTRONS Rarely No Always< 15 MeV

No No

ANTIMATTER No No Alwayspositronsmonths - years

No No

ATOMICOXYGEN

Changesdensity profile

Changesdensity profile

Changesdensity profile

No No

ATMOSPHERICDRAG

Heatinghours

Heatingdays

Heavedays

Yes

Particle Radiation

Information Transmission & Reception

In this area, man-made and natural SWx phenomena are similar but have two important differences. First, HANE produces effects that interfere with higher frequencies than solar flares and magnetic storms. Second, man-made effects are localized while flare effects are primarily hemispheric and magnetic storm effects are global.

FREQUENCY SOLAR FLARE MAGNETICSTORM

APPLETONANOMALY

HANE IONOSPHHEATER

CHEMICALRELEASE

ELF - LF Improves Improves No Improves Yes ?HF Stops

hourshemispheric

StopsdaysGlobal

Scintillationnightlyequatorialbelts

Stopshr. -weeksregional

Yes Effects?local

UHF ? Scintillationdayshigh latitude

Scintillationnightlyequatorialbelts

Outagesweeks5% of sky

Yes YesIn sun-lithemisphere

SHF No No No Outageshours5% of sky

Yes No

EHF No No No Outagesmins - hours5% of sky

No No

Information Transmission & Reception

SWx Summary• While the electromagnetic and corpuscular

environments produced by manmade and natural disturbances are similar, in almost every environmental domain, the spatial and temporal spheres of manmade influences are orders of magnitude smaller than that of naturally occurring phenomena

• HANE will adversely effect SWx assets that have been only harden against natural radiation hazards Similarly, natural SWx phenomena can adversely effect national security and warfighter assets that are only hardened against HANE radiation hazards.

Architecture Elements That Will Provide NuDet Data

Architect Element Current NuDet UseAll-Sky Camera High-Altitude FireballAurora x-ray, UV, IRImager

High-Altitude Burst, Fireball,Redout

Energetic Electron Detectors Fission BetasGEO Earth UV Burst, FireballOptical/UV Imager of Earth Burst, Fireball

Architecture Elements That Will Provide Potentially Useful NuDet Data

Architect Element Potential NuDet UseGravity Waves/Tide Atmospheric ExplosionMagnetic Fields (ground) High-Altitude Fission DebrisMagnetometers (space) High-Altitude Fission DebrisNeutral Winds (space) Atmospheric ExplosionPrecipitating Particles High-Altitude Fission DebrisSatellite Drag measurements Atmospheric HeaveScintillation (ground) High-Altitude BurstSynchrotron Radar High-Altitude Fission Debris

NuDet detectors and those that have the capability to provide SWx data

NuDet Detector Type SWx UseUV NoneSoft X-Rays NoneGamma-Rays NoneEnergetic Electrons Flares, Magnetic StormsEnergetic Ions Flares, Magnetic Storms

Joint Dissemination

• Currently the UV, X-Ray and Gamma-Ray NuDet data are sent only to AFTEC while the energetic particle data are sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and 55th Air Squadron. If a Gamma-ray Burst is detected AFTECT request LANL to determine if it might have been associated with high-energy electron event creating contamination of the Gamma-Ray sensor. LANL also uses the energetic particle data for space physics research.

Findings• While the EM and particle environments produced by

manmade and natural disturbances are similar, in almost every environmental domain, the spatial and temporal spheres of manmade influences are orders of magnitude smaller than that of naturally occurring phenomena.

• Within these spheres of influence, Manmade effects have more impact on national security assets and the warfighter in the these areas: gamma-ray, X-ray and neutron doses; inner Van Allen belt electron dose; propagation of electromagnetic signals at HF and lower frequencies; EMP voltage, and IR backgrounds.

Findings Cont.• SWx sensors are not adequate for detection of nuclear

events– Limited prompt radiation detection– Limited particulate detection

• HANEs adversely effect SWx assets that are only hardened against solar flare and magnetic storm radiation hazards.

• Ionospheric Heating and Chemical Release are not significant threats with present or projected technology

Findings Cont.• The time and effort required for the LANL NuDet energetic

particle data to reach to 55th space weather squadron can be significantly reduced.

• The ability to monitor neutron and gamma events will be severely degraded with the phase-out of the Advanced Radiation Capability (ARII) suite of sensors on GEO satellites

– This will impact development of improved models for the Radiation Belt, Ionosphere, Neutral Atmosphere, PCA, and Scintillation.

RECOMMENDATION A

Integrate relevant NuDet and SWx data– NuDet particle data can be used by the SWx

community during times of peace and NuDet electromagnetic and particle data also during times of war.

– SWx particle data can be used by the NuDet community for monitoring tests and during times or war.

RECOMMENDATION B Establish a single agency responsible for real-time/near real-time

products characterizing nuclear events and long-term effects

– Improve the codes that model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the beta electron environment

– Develop codes which will allow a rapid calculation of the electron environment and rapid dissemination of the data to users

– The NuDet community does not have this capability and the 2010-1025 SWx models combined with NuDet data should go along way to forecasting the mid-term and long-term effects of nuclear explosion.

– Fund the development and deployment of sensors capable of monitoring neutron and gamma events Data needed for SWx models of Radiation Belt, Ionosphere, Neutral Atmosphere, PCA, and Scintillation

RECOMMENDATION C

• Expand the NPOESS constellation to 3 hardened satellites with 120 degrees of separation in longitude. The additions of these hardened satellites will provide a reliable method of monitoring the evolution of radiation belts following HANE or extremely severe magnetic storms.