02-week 2- trends in ea institutional ism -security(2)

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Trends in East Asia Institutionalism-Security perspective and an overview

of geopolitical risk in Asia

Week 2 - Sept 8, 2010

Bantarto Bandoro

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ASEAN and East Asia Regional Dynamics


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To weight the strength

1. to weigh the strength of

potential challenges to

security and stability againstthe authority of the:

- institutions,

- mechanisms and

- processes

available to develop instincts to

accommodate national

preferences to the collective

interests of regional states

To resolve

2. to resolve instances of

conflicting aspirations, and

3. to deter any inclinations to

use national power to

intimidate or coerce others

into line in a manner that falls

outside accepted norms ofdiplomatic interaction

between states.

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What is the approach to assessing the reliability of a

regions security architecture ?


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HOWWILL EAST ASIAS ECONOMIC AND SECURITY

INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE EVOLVE ?


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Trends in East asia multilateral

architecture First, the region accommodate a great variaty of security

architectures, ranging from bilateral to multilateral

arrangements varies from military alliances to institutional

expression of cooperative and comprehensive security Second., an area in which one see the emergence of new

multilateral institutions since the end the Cold War: APEC,

ARF, EAS, Shangrila Dialog and CSCAP the region moves from

dangereously under institutionalized to having an overlapping

multilateral structure

Third, the intensity of the relationship between economic and

security particularly after the financial crisis the APT

incorporate economic and security linkage

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East asia multilateral architecture

Fourth, existing institution in East Asia have taken new

security role since 9 Sept and the Bali bombing. The issues

of health, transnational crime have also increasingly

discussed at the multilareal level.

Fifth, despite the presence of the growing number of

overlapping structures, institutionalism in east continue to

suffer from weask structural capacities that limit their

respond to security challenge . Eg:

1. the ARF success but questionable whether it can move towar prevetive diplomacy.

2. The APT does not the capability to address security

challenges. complex relations between China and Japan

may undermine its effectiveness9/12/2010 5


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Driving forces in the East Asia institutionalism

What will be the driving forces of change in East Asian

institutionalism ?

See the role of :

- The US -> refuse to be excluded from regional institutinalbuilding

- China -> new diplomtic activism in its growing economic and

military growth

- China US relations- ASEAN and Southeast Asia the future of Asian

institutionalism will be influenced by the strength of

regionalism in SEA

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Geopolitical risk

power balance in East Asia An historic shift is occurring in the global balance. The

21st century will witness the assertion of Asia as the

locus of world power and the relative decline of

Europe.

The United States will remain the dominant power for

a long time, perhaps until the middle of the century.

But the world will progressively become a multipolar

world with three Asian great powers (China, Japan

and India) and one Eurasian power (Russia)

competing with the United States.

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The next 20 years

whether this new correlation of forces in

Asia is :

1. a peaceful one or

2. one of competition and conflict.

History tells us that the rapid emergence of a new power has

often disrupted the existing order and led to war (the

examples ofGermany and Japan come to mind).

But there are other instances where a multipolar world has beenmanaged more skilfully and, in this context, the Congress of

Vienna1 which led to a century basically at peace is most

often quoted (although there were the Crimean and the

Franco-Prussian wars).9/12/2010 8


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Asias future

Asias future will be determined by

1. whether there is a cooperative and largely

peaceful interaction between China, Japan,India, Russia and the United States or

2. whether there will be a much more unstable

struggle for influence and power in the years

ahead

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Two Schools of Thought

1. Those affiliated with the first school are

optimistic, believing that the forces of

globalisation and economic interdependence

will encourage nation states to avoid conflict.

2. The second point of view reflects the belief

that it is in the nature of relations between

great powers that they will struggle for

influence and that the legacy of history in

Asia will inevitably lead to conflict.

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The optimist

This is a view often proselytised by the ASEAN countries and

by China (Hu Jintaos harmonious region). It is supported by

the evidence that there has been no major war in Asia since

the end of the Vietnam War over 30 years ago and that

potentially dangerous hot spotssuch as the Korean

peninsula and the Taiwan Straithave not erupted into

armed conflict.

This point of view also argues that Asias security architecture,

and in particular ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum, havedeveloped a uniquely Asian way of ensuring a peaceful

regional order

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The pesimist

The most obvious risk in this regard is the struggle for

influence between China and Japan. But there is

also the danger of collision between a rising China

and the United States as the established dominantpower in the region

This school of thought points to the fragile nature of

regional security architectures, the lack of arms

control and disarmament agreements, and even

basic confidence building measures and military

transparency

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9/12/2010 13

2007

2006

2008


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2008

2008

Vinod K. Aggarval and Ming Gyo Koo,ed.Asias New

Institutional Architecture Evolving Structures for

Managing Trade, Financial, and Security Relations, 2009


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2005

R. Emmerson, East

Asian Institutionalism ,

2008

2009

02-week 2- trends in ea institutional ism -security(2)

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