01a lm foreword-ws2016

Luca Marescotti 2 / 52

Keywords


Conoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza in urbanistica - Knowledge and Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience in Planning

THE WORLD IS CHANGING!

REALLY? I DO NOT BELIEVE IT!YES, IT IS, BUT HOW?

WHAT CAN WE DO?



THREE PRESSURES

RESOURCES LIMITSUNBALANCED RESOURCES AND AFFLUENCE

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES



RESOURCES LIMITSCarrying capacity and T factors (T for tecnologies)

… but Tf ? Tf future is unpredictable!(*) Pierre François Verhulst(**) Saint Paul Island, Alaska [fonte: Eric Roger Pianka].

T?Here we have not

any T factors (**) (*)



RESOURCES LIMITS

Malthus: exponential growth vs linear growth,Verhulst: Population vs Carrying Capacity,

but technologies can change the agricultural productivity? The green revolution, promoted since the late 40s will save us! Sure? How much?



RESOURCES LIMITS

“The fundamental point of The Population Bomb isstill self-evidently correct, we believe: the capacity ofEarth to produce food and support people is finite.”

[fonte: Paul R. Erlich, Anne H. Erlich 2009]



UNBALANCE IN RESOURCES AND AFFLUENCE

global poverty lines 1,00$÷1,25$ / person x day (World Bank 1985) Wellbeing 205,00$ /person x day (Nobel Angus Deaton)



HUMAN IMPACTS AND PLANETARY BOUNDARIES 1

IPAT equation: I = P × A × T

(Human) Impacts on the environment are a function of (Population, x Affluence x Technology) [Barry Commoner, Paul Erlich, John Holdren].

DISCUSSION (a) exponential population growth [P is a function of time t= time? T

0, ... t

n, ],

(b) affluence is unbalanced,(c) T can be positive or negative,

(d) T future is unknown.


Almeria, greenhouses for the Green Revolution!

[fonte: Yann Arthus-Bertrand]


il contesto dell'urbanisticail sistema socio-ecologico e le tecnologie

[fonte: Will Steffen,”The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship”, 2011]

Fig. 2 I = PAT identity at the global scale from 1900 to the present. Note the difference in volume between the 1990–1950 period and the 1950–2011 period, which represents the Great Acceleration (Kolbert 2011)



Fig. 1 a The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to 2000. Significant

increases in rates of change occur around the 1950s in each case and illustrate how the past 50 years have been a period of dramatic and

unprecedented change in human history (Steffen et al. 2004, and references therein). In the following part figures, the parameters are disaggregated into OECD (wealthy) countries (blue) and non-OECD (developing) countries (red); b Population change from 1960 through 2009, in 1000 millions of people (World Bank

2010); c Increase in real GDP from 1969 through 2010, in trillions 2005 USD (USDA

2010); d Communication: increase in telephones (millions), both land-lines and mobile phones, from 1950 through 2009

(Canning 1998; Canning and Farahani 2007; ITU 2010)

[fonte: Will Steffen,2011]


CHE COSA PROPONGONO LE TECNOLOGIE ALL’ORGANIZZAZIONE DEL TERRITORIO?

Quanto è sostenibile una città?

Quante tecnologie incorpora?

Quanta energia incorpora?

Quanto sfruttamento umano?

Le tecnologie permettono qualsiasi cosa, anche costruire nel deserto!

The technologies allow anything, also build in the desert!

How sustainable is a city?How many technology incorporates?How much energy embeds?How much human exploitation?



PRODOTTI DI SCARTO E RIFIUTI

Nel processo di produzione e nel consumismo della società ricca

Questa è la regola del PIL nel capitalismo

-------------------------------

SCRAP AND WASTE

In the production process and in the consumerism of an affluent society.

This is the rule of GDP in capitalism



HUMAN IMPACTS AND PLANETARY BOUNDARIES 2

THE THEME IS: THE HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE BIOSPHERE AND

GLOBAL CHANGE

1

2

• overfishing, coastal

eutrophication

• phosphorous accum-

ulation in soil and mud

• fire prevention

3

state shift

• disease,

hurricane

• flooding, warming,

overexploitation

of predators

• good rains, continu-

ous heavy grazing

coral dominance

clear water

grassland

4algal dominance

turbid water

shrub-bushland

Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services(Desirable) (Undesirable)


il contesto dell'urbanisticail sistema socio-ecologico

RICH

RICH/POOR

ppm for all greenhouse gases



IL RUOLO DELL'URBANISTICA E IL RUOLO DELLA CULTURA POLITECNICA NELLA COMPRENSIONE E NELLA GESTIONE DEI FATTORI DI MODIFICAZIONE DEI SISTEMI

SOCIO-ECOLOGICI

THE ROLE OF PLANNING AND THE ROLE OF A POLYTECHNIC CULTURE IN UNDERSTANDING AND

MANAGING SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS CHANGING FACTORS


WHAT?

50/9/ & 100/+2°



2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth, and it was not even close.

On January 20, 2016, scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their analyses of surface

temperatures for the past year. The NASA team found that globally averaged temperatures from January through December 2015 were 0.87 degrees Celsius (1.57° Fahrenheit) above the norm (defined as a 1951–1980 base period). The previous record—set last year—was 0.74°C (1.34°F) above the norm. For the

planet, 2015 was more than a full degree Celsius (1.8°F) warmer than temperatures in 1880, when consistent record-keeping began.



The graph below shows temperature trends in relation to El Niño and La Niña events. Orange bars represent global temperature anomalies in El Niño years,

with the orange line showing the trend. Purple bars depict La Niña years, and the purple line shows that trend. Neutral years are shown in gray, and the dashed

black line shows the overall temperature trend since 1950.[http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87359&src=eoa-iotd]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87359&src=eoa-iotd



1816 l'anno senza estateIn seguito all'eruzione del vulcano Tambora, nell'isola di Sumbawa (Indonesia)

2014- 2016 gli anni senza inverno?causati dagli impatti umani e con particolare riferimento alla grande accelerazione

tecnologica

1816 the year without a summer

probably caused byTambora eruption on Sumbawa island (Indonesia)

2014- 2016 years without winters?

caused by humans, with particular reference by their great technological acceleration


The Global Land Cover Share Database


Land use and Impacts: The Global Land Cover Share Database

The basic concept adopted to develop the global land cover share database is effective: integrate the best land cover data available (at sub-national, national, and regional and global level) into one single harmonized database using international standards. This task requires an effort of harmonization among different layers and legends to create a consistent product.

TREE COVERED areas 27,7% represent around one quarter of the total global land surface. The other most represented cover classes are CROPLAND 12,6% and BARE SOIL 15,2%. Considering differences in accuracy and dates, of the values show comparable ranges.

[GLC – SHARE beta 2014 ]



ARTIFICIAL SURFACES 0,6%: The class is composed of any type of areas with a predominant artificial surface. Any urban or related feature is included in this class, for example urban parks (parks, parkland, sport facilities). The class also includes industrial areas,waste dump deposit

and extraction sites. [GLC – SHARE beta 2014 ]

Ma le città (0,6% delle terre emerse) consumano il 70% delle risorse ittiche forestali e minerarie

Nelle città quel 70% non è diviso equamente e comunque all'altra metà della popolazione che coltiva, scava e taglia resta il 30%


Deforestation Hot Spots



La ricchezza delle nazioni risiede nelle loro risorse, ma la loro sovranità è funzione del potere economico e militare.

L'AMBIENTE NON HA CONFINI E LA SOVRANITÀ DELLE NAZIONI SI RIVELA INADATTA A TUTELARE L'AMBIENTE.

The wealth of nations lies in their resources, but their sovereignty is a function of economic and military power.

THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NO BOUNDARIES AND THE SOVEREIGNTY OF NATIONS PROVES UNSUITABLE TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT.


Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems.

Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. [ICCP 2014 Working Group II of Assessment Report 5]

50/9: Un sistema socio-ecologico dinamico


Impostazione del workshopambiente-territorio-paesaggio

Biosfera: visioni di un sistema complessoVisioni qualitative e visioni quantitative: il controllo attraverso la misura, la prevenzione e la precauzione.

Definire una grandezze e delle unità di misura - Indicatori e soglie di attenzione

Definizioni per settori operativi (per esempio: equilibri/squilibri sociali, gestione dei rifiuti, controllo degli scarichi nelle acque, delle emissioni nell'aria e controllo dei rischi associati...).

Ruolo delle tecnologieNei processi e nella produzione di territorio e dell'ambiente.


Contesto del workshopun modello di sviluppo alternativo

• Modello convenzionale– Ruolo politico del mercato; Sprechi ed emissioni nei processi produttivi

(inefficienza del metabolismo).

• Modello economico “verde”– Ruolo della politica nel controllo del mercato, Produzioni a basso

consumo energetico (efficienza del metabolismo), Energia da fonti rinnovabili, Materie prime secondarie.

• Old economy– Political role of the market (strong shadow hand); Waste and emissions

in production processes (metabolic inefficiency).

• Green job– Role of Politics in control of the market, low-energy production

(metabolic efficiency), energy from renewable sources, secondary raw materials.



Le tecnologie sono mezzi e modi di produzione del territorio urbanizzato,

… cioè ... del passaggio dall'Olocene all'Antropocene

Technologies are means and modes of production of the urbanized territory,

... that is to say … for the transition from Holocene to Anthropocene


TECNOLOGIE TECHNOLOGIES

MEZZI E MODI DI PRODUZIONE: tecnologie di processo, strumenti, macchine, leggi e strumenti di pianificazione, regole di attuazione e di controllo,

capitale infrastrutturale, capitale naturale, forza lavoro…PRODOTTI: tecnologie di prodotto, quindi infrastrutture a rete e puntuali, opere

di controllo della mobilità, opere di mitigazione e compensazione degli impatti; cioè: città, terreni coltivati e condizioni generali ...

PRODUCTION MODES & MEANS: process technologies, tools, equipment, laws and planning tools, implementing & control rules , infrastructural capital,

natural capital, labour power, ...PRODUCTS: Product technologies, network infrastructures and punctual, works

of mobility control, mitigation works and impacts compensation; ie: city, farmland, and general condition, ... ..


ERA Environmental Risk Assessment as a part of SEA (*)

Risk analysis & Precautional principle (**)

(*) David Hyett (Australia)Environmental risk assessment in environmental impact assessment: optional or mandatory? (**) when making multi-dimensional public decisions high priority on acting to avoid and/or mitigate potential harmful consequences. [fonte: Alan Randall, Risk and Precaution, Cambridge University Press, 2011.]

Disaster Risk Index (DRI)

PER UNA TEORIA URBANISTICA IN AMBITO ECOLOGICO: oltre VAS & VIA


Today,85% of the people exposed to earthquakes, tropical

cyclones, floods and droughts live in countries having either medium or low human development.

… Some 75% of the world’s population live in areas

affected at least once by earthquake, tropical cyclone, flood or drought between 1980 and 2000.

Disaster Risk Index (DRI)

PER UNA TEORIA URBANISTICA IN AMBITO ECOLOGICO


Urbanisation does not necessarily have to lead to increasing disaster risk and can actually, if managed

properly, help reduce it.[fonte: Mark Pelling, Andrew Maskrey, Pablo Ruiz and Lisa Hall (eds.), A Global Report - Reducing Disaster Risk. A Challenge For Development, United Nations Development Programme - Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, New York, 2004.]

PER UNA TEORIA URBANISTICA IN AMBITO ECOLOGICO


Just to begin: a small, dynamic, instable, unpredictable Planet

DI CHE COSA PARLIAMO, QUANDO PARLIAMO DI URBANISTICA?

WHAT WE TALK ABOUT, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PLANNING?



Il riduzionismo vede l'edificazione come unico compito dell'urbanistica: se fatta bene, tutto è a posto. Ma l'urbanistica riguarda tutto il territorio e il suo uso. La disciplina si apre a altre discipline, concorre con loro, pari tra i pari, per orientare il futuro. Il collasso è un destino stupido.

È necessario riscrivere una visione scientifica dell'urbanistica? Che cosa significa pianificare l'uso del suolo senza comprendere gli impatti globali?

Trasformare il pianeta comporta consapevolezza e responsabilità dell'urbanistica.



Reductionism sees building as the unique task for planning: if done right, everything is in place. But planning covers the whole territory and all its uses. The discipline must be open to other disciplines; it competes with them, equal among equals, to guide the future. Collapse is a too stupid fate.

Do we need to re-write a scientific view of urbanism?What does it mean to plan land uses without understanding global impacts?

Transforming the planet involves awareness and responsibility of planners and of politicians.


Prospettive

● Sustainable city● Land Use Planning● Physical Planning● Biodiversity● European Green Capital● EIA-SEA [VAS-VIA]● Disaster Risk (DR Index by UN)● Risk Management and Reduction Disaster Risk● Precautionary Principle● Human Development (HD Index by UN)


Una domanda: Come mettere a confronto le differenze? come misurarne le implicazioni

ambientali? Come valutare in più occasione con gli stessi criteri le trasformazioni di uso del suolo?

(esistono procedure standard per VIA & VAS?)

Just a question: can different trasformations or different public works be assessed following definite protocols? (there are standard procedures for

EIA & SEA?)

Di che cosa stiamo parlando?


Discussion 1 ‐ Keywords

Please discuss by using these key words that are given at the beginning of the lecture!Discutiamo la lezione usando le parole chiave fornite all'inizio!


Does planning interact with global change?L'URBANISTICA RIGUARDA I CAMBIAMENTI GLOBALI?

Is planning a science?L'URBANISTICA È UNA SCIENZA?

Is planning just an administrative technique of governing? L'URBANISTICA È SOLO UNA TECNICA DELLA PUBBLICA

AMMINISTRAZIONE?

Discussion 2 ‐ what is “urbanistica”?


Discussion 3 ‐ human impacts feedbacks

Please discuss the situations given below by giving planning examples!

01a lm foreword-ws2016

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