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The Future of Water Conflicts

What can you think of?

What factors can you think of that will affect the future water security of different countries?

Three alternative futures

In 2002 the International Food Policy and Research Institute decided to investigate the future scenarios of water

Read through each and decide what wider impacts these scenarios could have Food supplies Groundwater stores Water projects

Scenario

Water change by 2025

Wider Impacts

Business as usual

Water scarcity will reduce food productionConsumption of water will rise by over 50%Household water use will increase by 70%Industrial water demands will increase in developing countries

Water crisis

Global water consumption will increase, mostly for irrigationWorldwide demand for domestic water will fallDemand for industrial water will increase by 33% over business as usual levels, yet industrial output remains the same

Sustainable water

Global water consumption and industrial water use will have to fall considerablyEnvironmental flows could be increased dramatically compared to other scenariosGlobal rain-fed crop yields could increase due to improvements in water harvestingAgricultural and household water prices might double in developing countries and triple elsewhere

Responses to rising demands

Managing future water supplies will require action at a variety of levels, ranging from large-scale projects funded by the government down to changing consumer attitudes towards water use at a local level

There are three likely actions people will take

Hard engineering

Likely to be limited to developing countries in the future

Current global dam building costs are around $30 billion each year

Half of the world’s largest dams are built primarily for irrigation

Hard engineering

Economic costs Tend to overrun costs by 50% Water sales rarely cover the costs of water supplies

Ecological costs Fragmented 6% of the world’s rivers Many ecological impacts are not considered before construction

Social costs Local communities are starved of development and welfare

investment during construction Can be severely disrupted Displaced over 60 million people in SE Asia in the last four decades

Other options

River, lake and wetland restoration Research current efforts to restore the Aral Sea (led

by Kazakhstan) Water conservation

Reducing demand rather than increasing supplies More efficient farming practices (drip irrigation) Recycling industrial water Domestic water harvesting

Essay practice

Using named examples, assess the impact of using trans-boundary water sources on people and the environment. (15) Rivers and aquifers International or within countries (e.g. Colorado) Winners and losers Environment: depletion of stores could have consequences.

saltwater incursions, pollution affecting water quality elsewhere, loss of an ecosystem

People: increased insecurity/security, political tensions, loss of economic activity