© H. Maurer1

How to Deal with the Potential Breakdown of Computer Networks

Invited Presentation ED-MEDIA 2005Montreal, July 2, 2005

Hermann MaurerGraz University of Technologyand JOANNEUM RESEARCHGraz/ Austria

© H. Maurer2

Computerization is enabling and speeding up this process and introduces a new phenomenon:

Division of labor and globalization extend more and more also to non- material products (information, software, publishing, knowledge,…)

We live in an age of extensive division of labor

and globalization.

Good example: WWW (Wikipedia!) and digital libraries.

© H. Maurer3

Advantages of Globalization

Access to many things that otherwise we would not have

More efficient production (climate, raw-material,…),

Certain efforts are only possible through massivecollaboration:

The ‚animal‘ humankind is able to do things small groups of individuals could not do

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Disadvantages of GlobalizationPotential exploitation (without consideration for people and environment,…)

Arbitrary shift of production facilities (unemployment, waste,…)

Increases transport (i.e. dependency on oil which is a danger for peace and environment!)

Globalization creates dangerous dependencies

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... and then the Internet collapsed one day…

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Could it really happen that computers and computer networks fail in large regions for prolonged

periods?

Yes. The danger is particularly high due to a targeted attack. It is a miracle that no serious case of cyber-attack has occurred yet!

Note interconnection between power grid andcomputers / computer networks ! Power gride.g. out for 6 weeks in Auckland in 2002!

© H. Maurer7

The latest book inmy “Xperts-Series”describes exactlysuch a scenario.

www.iicm.edu/Xperts

© H. Maurer8

The Telekinetic(Maurer)

The Paradoppelganger(Maurer)

The Parawarriors(Maurer)

The Paranet(Maurer)

Fighting big Brother(Maurer)

eSmog!(Backhaus)

The Paracommunicator (Lennon)

The Parashield(Osborne)

The XPERTS- Saga

Mindwave(Shearer)

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Some figures

Incidents 2003: 137.729http://www.cert.org/stats/

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Further figures

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Who believes in a dramatic collapse within the next ten years?

“Some 66% agreed with the following prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked infrastructure or the nationwide power grid” (PEW Report on “The Future of the Internet”, January 9, 2005)

Persons interviewed included e.g. Vincet Cerf, Esther Dyson, Bob Metcalfe, Dan Gillmore, Simon Garfinkel, Howard Rheingold, David Weinberger, usw.

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Report for the PresidentFebruary 2005

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Consequences of complete breakdown are catastrophic: clear

How can we avoid them?

(1) Increase stability of computers and networks!

(2) Globalization where necessary, but regionalization wherever reasonable

(3) Reduce terrorism. One aspect is to reduce injustice in world as one of the reasons for terrorism. Help third world with IT

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“Balance or Destruction” F.J. Radermacher

Basic idea: future increase in productionis possible without further damaging the environment. This growth has to be distributed unevenly.

Reduce injustice in the world

“Global Marshall Plan”

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Help in the third world using IT

Spread new local knowledge world wideExample: How to boil water with limited fuel

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Boiling water

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Help in the third world with IT

Spread new local knowledge world –wideOther examples are e.g.can-houses, sandbags, chistosoma,…

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Globalization where necessary, regionalization where reasonable

e.g.:“Asymmetric distance tax” based on GNP:--- increases stability through self sufficiency--- supports new distribution of wealth--- supports regionalization and natural life--- also holds for non-material aspects

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Computers und networks must become more secure (stable)!

Operating systems and basic software on chips

Write-once storage (may be with mechanical override)

e.g. radical approach:Give up John von Neumann computer concept

Use network only when needed

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Other approaches

Thin clients in networks where much is done inservers

Redundant networks and addressing schemes

Variety of operating systems/ configurable OSCroquet project: www.opencroquet.org

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Other approaches

Use of crytopgraphic co-processors

Like in:www.trustedcomputinggroup.org

Can possibly lead to unwanted control www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html

www.iicm.edu/Xperts

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F.J. Radermacher in “Balance or Destruction” talks about the balance

between countries.

We need this, but we also need a healthy balance between globalization and regionalization, and a clean solution for secure computing without the dangers inherent in “Trusted Computing”.

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What will YOU do after this talk to help improvethe stability of our systems?

At least--- tell everyone:

In a very globalized networked society we are more vulnerable than is good for us, unless we start to increase the safety of our systems right now!

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Just think: what would happen if electricity fails for 6 weeks in the central USA and a 1400 miles

radius around it in, say, January 2007?

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Thanks for your attention!H.Maurer

URLs:

www.know-center.at www.hyperwave.comwww.iicm.edu/maurer

More on related stuff: www.iicm.edu/Xperts

email: hmaurer@iicm.edu