ادارة تكلفة المشروع
DESCRIPTION
project cost managementTRANSCRIPT
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Project Cost
Management
Prepared by: Mohamed Dahi 2013
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Project Cost Management
Knowledge Area
Process
InitiatingPlanningExecutingMonitoring & Control
Closing
Cost Cost EstimatingCost Budgeting
Cost Control
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Financial Statement
Income statement P/LBalance Sheet
Economic Analysis
Benefit-cost ratio- Higher BCR, more preferable Payback Period-Shorter period more preferred project Break Event Point ROI (Return on investment) IRR (internal rate of return Higher IRR, more preferable
project NPV- Higher PV, more preferable project value is>=0
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The project cost management process include
Cost estimatingCost budgetingCost controlling
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Project Cost Management• The process involved in estimating, budgeting, and
controlling cost so that the project can be completed within approved budget
• Life cycle costingLooking at the cost of whole life of the product (include maintenance)
• Value analysis (value engineering)Looking at less costly way to do the same work within the same scope
• Law of Diminishing ReturnsE.g. adding twice resource to task may not get the task done in half cost/time
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Resource planning
Determining what resources and quantities of them should be used.
Cost estimating
Developing an estimate of the costs and resources needed to complete a project.
Cost budgeting
Allocating the overall cost estimate to individual work items to establish a baseline for measuring performance.
Cost controlling
Controlling changes to the project budget.
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The main outputs of the cost estimating process are:
Cost estimates Supporting detail Cost management plan
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Cost Management Plan
Describes how cost variances will be managed on the project.
Content: Level of accuracy Reporting format Rules for measuring cost performance Cost baseline Control thresholds Cost change control procedures
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7.1 Cost Estimating
The process of developing approximation of the monetary resources needed to complete project activities
Points for estimating (WBS-person doing work -historical information- No Padding –Realistic)
What do you need before estimating costso Cost trade-offs المقايض111ة)) risk must be
considered How is estimating done?
Feedback to tender depart.
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1.The proposal estimate is prepared before proposal and initiation to commit resources to the first stage of the project. الجدوى لدراسة مرافق – order of magnitude)-تقديرmade without any detailed eng-data).مقترح)(ROM)
2. The budget estimate is prepared during proposal and early planning , and commit resources to design and appraisal. التصميمية البدائل تقييم اجل من -تقدير
3. The sanction estimate is prepared during design and appraisal to gain funding for the project, or approval from the project sponsor. - االجازة اولية تقديرات
4. The control estimate is prepared during implementation planning. تفصيلية تقديرات
5. A tender estimate is prepared as part of the process of bidding for a contract. العطاء سعر
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Estimating methods used to prepare types of estimate:
Type of Estimate Accuracy(%)
Proposal estimate + - 50
Budget estimate - +20
Sanction estimate + - 10
Control estimate + - 5
Tender estimate + - 2
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approximateDefinitiveEstimate
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Types of Cost
Variable Costs Change with the amount of production/work e.g. material, supplies, wages
Fixed Costs Do not change as production change e.g. set-up, rental
Direct Costs Directly attributable to the work of project e.g. team travel, recognition, team wages
Indirect Costs overhead or cost incurred for benefit of more than
one project e.g. taxes, fringe benefit, janitorial services Cost reserves: amount of money needed above the
estimate to reduce risk of overruns of project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization
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Inputs
1.Scope baseline
2.Project schedule
3.Human resource plan
4.Risk register
5.Enterprise environmental factors
6.Organizational process assets
Tools & Techniques
1.Expert judgment
2.Analogous estimating
3.Parametric estimating
4.Bottom-up estimating
5.Three-point estimates
6.Reserve analysis
7.Cost of quality
8.Project management estimating software
9.Vendor bid analysis
Outputs
1.Activity cost estimates
2.Basis of estimates
3.Project document updates
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Cost Estimating Tools
• Analogous estimates -unit method Using the actual cost of a previous, similar
project Used when there is limited information Form of expert judgment- used in the early
project stages• Bottom up estimating Estimating the cost of individual work
items ,then rolling up to get total project cost• Parametric modeling-(statistical ) Using project characteristics in a mathematical
model-may be simple with very few parameters e.g. (construction per squire foot calculation) -
• Three Point Estimating
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One point estimating
Approximation of a single quantity or a single numerical
value, instead of that of a whole range of quantities or
values.
Analog costing
Computing cost of an item on the basis of the cost of a
similar (analogous) item and using adjustment factors to
account for differences between the two items.
Parametric cost estimating
Methodology that employs one or more cost estimating
relationships for quantifying research and development
(R&D) costs.
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Ranges Of Estimates
Rough Order of Magnitude.
An approximation, made with a degree of knowledge and
confidence that the estimated figure falls within a
reasonable range of values-
Budget Estimate
Approximation of the cost of an activity, job, program or
project, prepared for budgeting and planning purposes
only. Not accurate enough to provide a basis for a firm
commitment, it represents only the budget maker's
understanding of the scope and expense of what needs to
be done.Definitive Estimate
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• Most difficult to estimate as very little project info is available, made during initiating process- parametric method
EstimateAccuracy
Rough Order of
Magnitude(ROM)
-/+50%
Budget Estimate
-10%
+25%
Definitive Estimate
-5%
+10%
• Used to finalize the Request for Authorization (RFA), and establish commitment, made during early planning phase- analogy method
• During the project and refined • late planning & execution- • grassroots method
Quality/Accuracy of Cost Estimation
Ball ParkWBS level 1
WBS level 2,3
WBS level 4,5,6
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7.2 Cost BudgetingProcess of aggregating the estimated cost
of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline.
Allocating the overall cost estimate to individual activates or work packages, in order to establish a cost baseline for measuring project performance.
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Inputs1.Activity cost
estimates
2.Basis of estimates
3.Scope baselines
4.Project schedule
5.Resource calendars
6.Contracts
7.Organizational process assets
Tools & Techniques1.Cost aggregation
2.Reserve analysis
3.Expert judgment
4.Historical relationship
5.Funding limit reconciliation
Outputs1.Cost
performance baseline
2.Project funding requirements
3.Project document updates
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Cost Aggregation
Reserves & risk management are important while estimating! Contingency reserves: Cost
Baseline the cost impacts of the remaining risk
Management reserves: Cost Budgetextra fund to cover unforeseen risk or changes to the project
Activity estimates
Work package estimates
Control account estimates
Project estimates
Contingency reserves
Management reserves
Cost baseline
Cost Budget
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A 1$25 A2$25 A 3$25
WP 1$100 WP2$250
CA1$850 CA2$480
WP3$500
$1.250
$105
$1.355
$68
$1.423
WP4$175
A 5$45A 4$25
Example
Activity estimates
Work package estimates
Control account estimates
Project estimates
Contingency reserves
Management reserves
Cost baseline
Cost Budget
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Time
Cum
ulat
ive
valu
es
Expenditures
Cost Baseline
Funding Requirements
Is the time phased budget that is used as the basis against whish the progress is measured
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7.3 Control CostThe process of monitoring the status of the project to update the project budget and managing changes to the cost baseline
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للمالك بالنسبة التكاليف مراقبة من االهدافوالمقاول
اعادة له تتحقق حتى له المحدد الميعاد فى المشروع استالمالمال راس دورة
التكاليف تعويض عقود حالة تكون cost reimbursementفىعن مسئوال سيكون النه التكالف مراقبة هى المالك مسئولية
المواد جميع شراء
المحدد الميعاد فى المشروع وتسليم تنفيذ من التأكدمخطط هو كما تسير الفعلية التكاليف من التاكد
مقدما االسعار محددة العقود حالة المقاول price given in advanceفى يقوممسئوليته تكون وبذلك المواد جميع شراء عن المسئول فهو لذلك معين بسعر المشروع بأخذ
المخطط الربح هامش يقل ال حتى االساسية
التشطيبات اثناء وخاصة المتابعة فترات وتقليل تكثيف الى يؤدى المشروع انشطة وتكثف تعقدالمتابعة فترات زادت المشروع زمن زاد فكلما المشروع مدة على اساسا المتابعة فترات تعتمد
المشروع على المتابعة زادت كلما تزداد التنفيذ فى الدقة درجة
للمالك بالنسبة
للمقاول بالنسبة
المتابعة فترات اختيار على تؤثر التى العاومل
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Inputs
1.Project management plan
2.Project funding requirement
3.Work performance information
4.Organizational process assets
Tools & Techniques
1.Earned value management
2.Forecasting
3.To-complete performance index
4.Performance reviews
5.Variance analysis
6.Project management software
Outputs
1.Work performance measurement
2.Budget forecast
3.Organizational process updates
4.Change requests
5.Project management plan updates
6.Project document updates
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How to control cost?
Follow the cost management plan
Look at any organizational process asset that are availableManage change Recording all appropriate change Preventing incorrect change Ensuring requested changes are agreed upon Managing the actual changes when and as they
occur
Measure and measure and measure (monitoring)
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Progress Report:A method to control schedule and cost
Progress/performance report (output from communication area)
Where work cannot be measured, estimate could be done by a guess-rules
50/50 Rule 20/80 Rule 0/100 Rule PCT: the amount of units completed copmared to the
total amount planned Activity is considered X percent complete when it
begins and get credit for the last Y percent only when it is complete
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Earned Value Technique
Method to measure project
performance against
scope, schedule and cost
baseline (performance
measurement baseline
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It builds on the concept of comparing banana with banana not banana with watermelon.
Its enables P.M through a simple and effective analysis ,to get timely updates and forecasts on project’s time and cost performance.
BCWSPV
ACWPAC
BCWP
EV
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How EV Works?
The value the contractor is entitled to
receive from the owner based on
estimated prices and actual amount of
work performed.
This is way called earned value EV = PCT * BAC
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Planned value (PV) Is the cost of work that's been budgeted for
a schedule activity or WBS component to be completed during a given time period .
PV is also called (BCWS)
Actual Cost (AC) Is the cost of completing the work ( a
schedule activity or WBS component ) in a given time period. AC is also called (ACWP)
Earned Value (EV) Is the value of the work ( a schedule activity
or WBS component ) completed to date as it is compares to the budget amount assigned to the work component. EV is also called (BCWP)
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Earned Value Management
The Big Picture Cost Performance Index (CPI)
CPI = EV / AC Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
SPI = EV / PV
Image captured from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management, PMI © 2005
CV = EV - AC SV = EV - PV
Interpretation of basic EVM performance measures
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Exercise
You have a project to build a box. The box is six sided. Each side is to
take one day to build and is budgeted for $1000 per side. The sides are
planned to be completed one after the other. Today is the end of day
three.
Using the following project status chart, calculate PV, EV, AC, BAC, CV,
CPI, SV, SPI, EAC, ETC, VAC.
Describe your interpretation based on the calculation!
Project is below/over budget?
Project is late/ahead schedule?
How much more money we need?
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TaskProgressCost spent
Side 1100%$1,200
Side 2100%$1,000
Side 375%$750
Side 450%$500
Side 50%$0
Side 60%$0
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Exercise Solution
ParameterCalculationResult
PV
EV
AC
BAC
CV
CPI
SV
SPI
EAC
ETC
VAC
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Exercise SolutionParam
eterCalculationResult
PV1000 + 1000 + 1000
EV)100% x 1000) + (100% x 1000 + (
)75% x 1000) + (50% x 1000 (
AC1200 + 1000 + 750 + 500
BAC6 x 1000
CV3025 - 3450
CPI3025 / 3450
SV3025 - 3000
SPI3025 / 3000
EAC6000 / 0.88
ETC6818.18 - 3450
VAC6000 - 6818.18
3000
3025
3450
6000
-425
0.88
25
1.01
6818.18
3368.18
-818.18
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CV =EV - AC SV =EV - PV
3450
CPI= 1.0
SPI= 1.0
0 0
ACPV EV
ON SCHEDULEON BUDGET
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AC
PV
EV
CV =EV - AC SV =EV - PV
3000
3025
3450
CPI= 0.99
SPI= 0.88
-25 -425
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AC
PV
EV
CV =EV - AC SV =EV - PV
3000
3025
3450
CPI= 1.15
SPI= 1.14
425 400
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AC
PV
EV
CV =EV - AC SV =EV - PV
3000
3025
3450
-425 +25
CPI= 0.88 SPI= 1.01
BAC6000
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EAC = 6000/ 0.88 = 6818.18Estimate at completion
ETC = 6818.18 – 3425)AC( = 3368.18Estimate to complete
VAC = 6000 – 6818.18 = - 818.18Variance at completion
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AC
PV
EV
CV =EV - AC SV =EV - PV
3000
3025
3450
CPI=1.01
SPI= .88
+25 -400
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LateOver
EarlyOver
EarlyUnder
LateUnder
AC
PV
EV
EV
EV EV
PV
PV
PV
AC
AC
AC
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EVM – Hints to remember
EV comes first in every formula If it’s variance, the formula is EV –
something If it’s index, EV / something If it relates to cost, use Actual Cost If it relates to schedule, use PV Negative numbers are bad, positive is
good
Copied from Rita’s book
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0.8 1.2
SPI1.10.9
CPI
1
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.2
وال الجدولة كفاءة كلفةتمخطط
ال زيادة والتنفيذ تحالة كلفةالعمل في ال المتقدم زيادة وتأخير تحالة كلفة
العمل في
ال توفير في تحالة وتأخير كلفةالعمل
ال توفير والتنفيذ تحالة كلفةالعمل في المتقدم
إضافية أعمال وجود وقتها قبل االعمال بعض بدء و المتوقع من أفضل العمال مهارات
� ايضا كلفتهم
المقدرة من أفضل االنتاجية العمل ساعات بعض اختصار مالئمة عمل ظروف
المقدرة من أسوأ االنتاجية االعمال بعض بدء تأخير مالئمة غير عمل ظروف
األسعار بعض زيادة المقدرة من أسوأ انتاجية المتوقع من أصعب أعمال جيدة غير خطة
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Earned Value Technique
Revised Total Duration Baseline Duration/Schedule Performance Index4/0.33
= 12 months
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EAC is an important forecasting value.
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Earned Value: Graphical Representation
TIME
CO
ST
ScheduleVariance (SV)
CostVariance(CV)
ACTUAL
PLAN
EARNVALUE
Estimate at Completion
(EAC)
Budget at Completion
(BAC)
Projection of schedule delay at completion
Projection of cost variance at completion
(VAC)
TODAY(Reporting
day)
BAC
EAC
AC
EV
PV
Project is over budget & behind schedule
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Image captured from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management, PMI © 2005
EV can be calculated by (%progress) x (planned man-days)
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over budget, getting 0.88 dollar for every
dollar we spent,
ahead schedule, progressing 101% of the rate
planned,
probably will spend $6818 at the end
(estimation),
need $3368 to complete,
over budget at the end for about $818
(estimation)
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Forecasting EAC
There are many ways to calculate EAC, depending on the
assumption made.
Simple EAC calculation (EAC = BAC/CPI) assume that the
cumulative CPI adequately reflects past performance that will
continue to the end of the project. (يستمر)
AC+(BAC-EV)
Used when current variances are thought to be atypical of the
future ( يستمر (لن
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To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
Helps the team determine the
efficiency that must be achieved on
the remaining work for a project to
meet a specified endpoint, such as BAC
or the team’s revised EAC
TCPI AC)– (BAC Remaining Funds
EV)– (BAC RemainingWork
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Forecasting EAC
Common alternative way to calculate EAC
Table captured from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management, PMI © 2005
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Questions & Answers