ความสำคัญและความจำเป็นของวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี...
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ความสำคัญและความจำเป็นของวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี สำหรับผู้บริหาร โดย ดร.มนู อรดีดลเชษฐ์ ประธานกรรมการซอฟต์แวร์ปาร์คประธานนโยบายไอซีที มหาวิทยาลัยศรีปทุมTRANSCRIPT
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What is Science ?source: Eli Goldratt, creator of TOC
� Science is simply the method we use to try and postulate a minimum set of assumptions that can explain, through a straightforward logical derivation, the existence of any phenomena of naturethe existence of any phenomena of nature
� We refer to science when we deal with physics, chemistry or biology. There are more phenomena of nature that do not fall into these categories, for instance those we see in organizations…
Natural: Biology (Neural & Social Organisms)
Human Made: Anthropology (Informal Service System Entities)
Human Made: Economics & Law (Formal Service System Entities)
Human Made: Network Theory (Globally Integrated Service System Entities)
Syst
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Sci
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Ex
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Gra
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Sciences of the Natural and Human Made WorldsSource: IBM
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Natural: Physics (Atoms)
Natural: Chemistry (Molecules)
Biology (Uni-Cell Organisms)
Biology (Multi-Cell Organisms)
Natural: Biology (Neural & Social Organisms)
Syst
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s S
cie
nce
Ex
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Na
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Domain Entity Science
Human-made Service System Globally Integrated
Network Theory
Formal ������ Economics & Law; Political Science
Informal Anthropology
Natural Living Organisms
Neural & Social Biology
Multi-cellular Biology
Uni-cellular Biology
Microscopic Structures
Chemicals Chemistry
Atoms Physics
The Key 2050 Challengessource: Global Water Partnership
� The World will have 9 billion people, today we have 6.85 billion
� Urban population will increase from 3.3 billion � Urban population will increase from 3.3 billion (48.17%) to 6 billion (66.7%)
� Expected shortage of
� Foods
� Water
� Energy
Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 Trillion system-
of-systems (OECD-based analysis) source: IBM
Communication$ 3.96 Tn
Transportation$ 6.95 Tn
Leisure / Recreation / Clothing
$ 7.80 Tn
Electricity$ 2.94 Tn
Education$ 1.36 Tn
Water$ 0.13 Tn
This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)
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Healthcare$ 4.27 Tn
Food$ 4.89 Tn
Infrastructure$ 12.54 Tn
Govt. & Safety$ 5.21 Tn
Finance$ 4.58 Tn
Global system-of-systems$54 Trillion
(100% of WW 2008 GDP)
Same IndustryBusiness SupportIT SystemsEnergy ResourcesMachineryMaterials Trade
Legend for system inputs
Note:
1. Size of bubbles represents systems’ economic values
2. Arrows represent the strength of systems’ interaction
Source: IBV analysis based on OECD
1 Tn
Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to
$15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated
Global economic value of
System-of-systems
$54 Trillion100% of WW 2008 GDP
$15 Trillion
Imp
rove
men
t p
ote
nti
al a
s %
of
syst
em i
nef
fici
ency
Education1,360
Building & Transport Infrastructure
12,540
Healthcare4,270
Electricity2,940
Financial4,580
Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems
42%
34%
This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)
30%
35%
40%
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Inefficiencies$15 Trillion28% of WW 2008 GDP
Improvement potential
$4 Trillion7% of WW 2008 GDP
How to read the chart:
For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480
System inefficiency as % of total economic value
Imp
rove
men
t p
ote
nti
al a
s %
of
syst
em i
nef
fici
ency
Government & Safety5,210
Food & Water4,890
Transportation (Goods & Passenger)
6,950
Leisure / Recreation / Clothing
7,800
Communication3,960
Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions
15%
20%
25%
30%
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
The Big Trend: “The future is service2”
Service Growth (Value-Cocreation)increase mutually beneficial interactionsdecrease unproductive interactionsT-shaped people to lower coordination costs
Population (People & Organizations)
Specialization (Outsourcing)space, time, scale distribution
Coordination (Information Technology)space, time, scale integration
Service2 growth asIT-enableddivision of labor
� More population (people & organizations) creates opportunity for specialization � Specialization (division of labor – Adam Smith) can improve productive capacity
� More specialization (outsourcing) creates need for coordination mechanisms� Local interactions become distributed across space, time, and scale (transaction costs – Coase)� Local optimization may not lead to global performance improvements
� More coordination (IT can lower costs) creates service growth (value-cocreation)� IT integrates across space, time, and scale improving global and local performance� Increase the ratio of productive interactions to unproductive interactions with others
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Population (People & Organizations)entities interacting
Product-Service Convergence
The Productivity Framework Based on Service
The Future Service Systemsource: Dion Hinchcliffe, 2010
Management and Best Practices
ThroughThroughThroughThrough
putputputput
Theory of ConstraintsLean Six Sigma, etc.
Inventory
Operating Operating Operating Operating expenseexpenseexpenseexpense
Terms of productivity
The Ultimate Goal
� Taking up the challenge, the Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn (30% of $50 Tn), of which $4 Tn could be eliminated
� Improve the overall productivity through technologies, connectivity, and the Industrialization best practicesconnectivity, and the Industrialization best practices
� We are not looking for incremental improvement, but we must leapfrog to prepare for the oncoming 2050 crisis
� Pay attention to the next wave of Science, the Science of Service