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TRANSCRIPT
Addressing global climate change in the context of sustainable
development
Zhang XiliangInstitute of Energy, Environment, and
Economy, Tsinghua University
Contents
Challenges from climate change faced by China.
International collaborative schemes for climate
change
China’s strategic responses for climate change
Challenges from climate change faced by China
The negative impacts of climate change on China’s vulnerable environment has been increasing and adaptation to climate change become a reality as well as an urgent task
Instability of agriculture production growth.Frequency and intensity of extreme weather disaster increase.Fluctuation of precipitation increased, andimbalance of water supply and demand enhanced.Operation risks of a key and large projects increased.Negative impacts on ecosystem, public health, vulnerable coastal area increased.
The volume of CO2 emission is huge and the growth has been fast in China, posing challenges for mitigation.
China’s share of CO2
emission in the world
was 1.3% in 1950. And
the accumulative CO2
emission of China was
9.3% of the world total
during 1950 ‐2002.CO2排放趋势比较
China’s share of CO2 emission in the world was 17.8% in 2004, and China could be the largest emitter before 2010.
CO2 emission per capita in China was 60% of the world average in 2000, and 87% in 2004. China’s accumulative CO2 emission per capita since the industrial revolution is one half of world average, and one‐seventh of OECD.
中国西欧
美国
日本
0
2
4
6
8
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
人均CO2排
放(t-C/人)
Accumulative CO2 emission per capita (1950-2002)
CO2 emission per capita(1970-2050)
The volume of CO2 emission is huge and the growth has been fast in China, posing challenges for mitigation (Continued)
0
100
200
300
400
500
世界 经合组织 中国
单位:吨
China’s CO2 intensity of GDP is high, but has decreased rapidly. There are spaces for CO2 emission reduction.
China’s CO2 intensity was 3.4 times of world average in 2000, and 5.3 times of OECD.
00. 51
1. 52
2. 53
3. 54
4. 55
美国 日本 英国 德国 中国 全球
美国加拿大日本俄罗斯英国法国德国印度中国巴西全球
CO2 emission per unit GDP
• CO2 intensity decreased by
66% from 1980 to 2000, and the
annual decrease rate was 5.3% .
• CO2 intensity will decrease by
20% from 2005 to 2010 with a
annual decrease rate of 4.36%.
Energy intensity was 3.6 times of OECD in 2000.
Low efficiency of energy conversion and utilizationLarge share of industry in industry structure
Low value added of products
0%30%60%90%120%150%180%
粗钢
电解铝
合成氨(大
型) 水
泥
工业锅炉
电站锅炉
供电煤耗
交通油耗标定
交通油耗实际
中国国外先进
Energy consumption of energy intensive products
China’s CO2 intensity of GDP is high, but has decreased rapidly. There are spaces for CO2 emission reduction.
CO2 emission per unit
energy consumption is
36% higher than that of
OECD.
Marked progress would be made in future CO2 emission mitigation, but global target of GHG concentration will raise challenges for China’s modernization road.
China’s CO2 intensity would be lowered by 40% during 2005‐2020 with an annual decrease rate of about 4%, being a rare case in the world.
Energy intensity vs. GDP per capita
中国
西欧
OECD国家美国
日本
0. 0
0. 3
0. 6
0. 9
1. 2
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
0. 270. 410. 61
3. 3
2. 22
1. 16 1. 180. 95
0
1
2
3
4
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
GDP能
源强度(kgce/$)
China’s energy intensity trend
International GHG mitigation development could
become the biggest constraint for China’s
energy consumption and economic growth.
There will not an environment for achieving
modernization with high energy and resource
consumption as developed countries did. China
has to find a new modernization road which has
not been seen before.
Marked progress would be made in future CO2 emission mitigation, but the global target of GHG concentration will raise challenges for China’s modernization road.
Addressing climate change will be accompanied with stinging competition for technologies, being a significant driver of energy technology innovation in China.
Low‐carbon technology would create new economic growth sectors.
Energy technology innovation capacity will become a key element of core national competitiveness.
International collaboration schemes for climate change
Global climate change initiatives should be directed by UNFCCC, and the principles of UNFCCC should be complied with.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
吨碳
/ 人
全球附件1国家非附件1国家
CO2 emission per capita in Annex I countries and Non-Annex I countries (1860-1990)
• Common and differentiated responsibility
• Sustainable development
The setting of GHG concentration target should be in line with well addressing the triangle relationships of adaptation, mitigation, and development.
Differentiated interests lead to differentiated focuses.
Active adaptation can reduce the negetiveimpacts of climate change.
Economic and social development are conducive to increasing capacity of adaptation and mitigation.
“Equitable development “ is the core principle
1.5
3.0
10000 30000
CO2emission per capita (t-C)
Per capita GDP($)
Reasonable growth in energy consumption of developing countries could not be overstepped during their industrialization and modernization.
The sharing of obligation for GHG mitigation should respect the different energy consumption patterns among countries in different economic development stage.
Developed countries should fulfill their obligations under UNFCCC to provide funds for and transfer technologies to developing countries as well as helping these countries to build their capacity
Promote technology transfer under UNFCCC
Improve CDM
China’s strategic responses to climate change
Integrating with sustainable development strategy and planning, promote the development and implement of national climate change policies.
Capacity building for climate change adaptation and mitigation
Laws, polices, and institutional arrangements for climate change.
Implementing countermeasures and stepping up technology innovation.
Energy saving and energy efficiency
Encourage renewable energies and nuclear power
Restructuring industries, changing economic growth mode and social consumption pattern.
Strengthening forest protection, forestation, and rational use of land to increase carbon sink. Strengthening the construction of infrastructure of agriculture, forest, water resource and
ecosystem protection
Try to master and large scale deployment of nuclear, wind, biomass generating technologies and CO2capture and storage technologies in 10 to 20 years.
Taking the opportunity of promulgation and implement of China National Climate Change Programme to accelerate consensus building and coordinate climate change actions.
Implementing obligations under UNFCCC and announcing the
policy to the worldAn integrated and effective countermeasures for climate
change
to 2010
CO2 intensity down by 20% from 2005
Share of renewable energies reaches 10%
Forest coverage rate reaches 20%
Actively participating in international collaboration in climate change and try to play a positive and constructive role.
Bilateral and multilateral technology cooperation and dialog
Participating in and promoting international climate change scheme development
Give the world an image of a responsible country in global environment affairs
Thanks!