yougov write-up, 11.1.11

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”MAGICAL THINKING” ON DEFICIT REDUCTION?: 46%

SAY ENTITLEMENT CUTS ARE NOT NECESSARY

Americans may want deficit reduction, but their favorite solutions may involve a bit

of magical thinking: they believe significant deficit reduction may only require cuts

in areas they are willing to cut — like defense spending, and not in other areas –

like entitlements and education — where they oppose spending cuts.

In the latest Economist /YouGov Poll, twice as many would support reductions in

defense spending in order to reduce the budget deficit than would oppose such cuts.

And a majority believes those cuts would be necessary to reduce the deficit. Only

27% think it would be possible to make big deficit reductions without defense cuts.

Yes No Not sure

27%

51%

22%

Do you think it is possible to make large reductions in thebudget deficit and NOT decrease defense spending?

WW W.YOUGOV.CO M 285 HAMILTON AVE , SUITE 200, PAL O ALTO, CA 94301 1

8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


SupportNeither support,

nor oppose Oppose Not sure

42%

20%

23%

13%

Would you support or oppose a deficit reduction planthat included cuts to defense spending?

Nearly half think deficit reduction CAN be achieved without reducing Social Secu-

rity and Medicare. And even more, 60% would oppose any such cuts.

Yes No Not sure

46%

33%

19%

Do you think it is possible to make large reductions in thebudget deficit and NOT decrease Social Security and Medicare?


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


SupportNeither support,

nor oppose Oppose Not sure

13%15%

60%

11%

Would you support or oppose a deficit reduction plan thatincluded cuts to Social Security and Medicare?

Americans also oppose decreases in government spending for education and stu-

dent aid; and by 42% to 33%, believe deficit reduction can be achieved without

such cuts.

Both Republicans and Democrats oppose entitlement cuts (although more than a

third of Republicans would support cuts in education). On defense spending, how-

ever, the parties differ. Nearly half of Republicans oppose reducing defense spend-ing, and nearly half think deficit reduction can be achieved without cuts to defense.

The parties also differ when it comes to tax increases to reduce the budget deficit.

71% of Republicans oppose tax increases, while Democrats are divided.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


All respondents Republicans Democrats

35%

44%

21%

55%

34%

11%

23%

56%

21%

Yes

No

Not sure

Do you think it is possible to make large reductionsin the budget deficit and NOT increase taxes?

All respondents Republicans Democrats

24%

18%

47%

11%9%

15%

71%

5%

39%

19%

32%

10%

Support

Neither support, nor oppose

Oppose

Not sure

Would you support or oppose a deficit reduction planthat included increased taxes?

A majority of Democrats believe tax increases will be necessary to make significant

deficit reductions.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


60% DOUBT DEFICIT REDUCTION SUPER-COMMITTEE

WILL REACH AN AGREEMENT

When the deficit reduction ”Super Committee” was formed in August, Americans

were skeptical that it would be able to agree on significant deficit reductions. Now,

two months later, as the November 23 deadline for an agreement nears, Americans

are still skeptical. In the latest Economist /YouGov Poll, six in ten believe the com-

mittee, with six Republicans and six Democrats, is unlikely to reach agreement.

Very

likely

Somewhat

likely

Somewhat

unlikely

Very

unlikely

Not

sure

3%

16%

25%

35%

21%

How likely do you think it is that the committee will beable to agree on its recommendations?

In fact, the public opposes the fact that the committee was created — though that

might be as much because of the dire consequences of not reaching agreement as it

is the skepticism that the committee can do its job. Should there be no agreement,

draconian cuts in defense and entitlement spending will automatically be imple-

mented.


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August 13−16, 2011 October 29−November 1, 2011

31%

50%

18%

31%

41%

28%

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

As part of the debt ceiling increase legislation, Congress createda 12−person committee equally divided between members of theHouse and the Senate and between Republicans and Democrats.

They are to report their recommendations on November 23rd.If they do not, or if their recommendations are not enacted, there will

automatically be large across−the−board budget cuts, including fordefense, Social Security and Medicare. Do you approve or disapprove

ofthe creation of this "super committee"?

There has been little change in public support for the super committee since August.

However, there is not a lot of knowledge. More than four in ten claimed to have

heard nothing at all about the committee and its role.

CAIN REMAINS ATOP GOP FIELD; GINGRICH RISES

The incredibly fluid Republican contest for the party’s 2012 presidential nomina-

tion hasn’t changed leaders this week, but there is a new candidate challenging for

second place in this week’s Economist /YouGov Poll.

Businessman Herman Cain remains atop the field (the poll was conducted over the

weekend that allegations of prior sexual harassment were made against Cain and he

denied those charges) with 26% support, nearly the same level as last week’s 28%.

But this week former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is challenging former

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for second place. 15% of registered voters

who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus say they support Gingrich,

17% favor Romney. Texas Governor Rick Perry, the previous party frontrunner, gets

only 6% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is at 10%.


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Preferred Republican Candidate for President

P e r c e n t o f R e g i s t e r e d V o t e r s L i k e l y t o V o t e

i n R e p u b l i c a n P r i m a r y o r C a u c u s

"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to bethe Republican nominee for president in 2012?"

Perry: 6%

Romney: 17%

Bachmann: 4%

Cain: 26%

Gingrich: 15%

Paul: 10%

q

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qq q

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qq

qq q

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0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011

Cain’s strength continues to come from those GOP voters who identify with the Tea

Party. 38% of them support him. Gingrich runs second with them, at 23%. Non-Tea

Party Republican voters divide between Romney and Cain (22% support Romney,

18% Cain).

Romney’s Mormon religion may be hurting him with only some Republican vot-

ers. Asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mormons, 39%of Republican voters are favorable. 19% are not. But Romney may have a bigger

problem with his religion with the general electorate. Only 29% of all registered

voters have a favorable view of Mormons.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


All registered

voters

Registered voters who arelikely to vote in a Republican

primary or caucus

29%

48%

23%

39%42%

19%

Positive

Neutral

Negative

Please tell us how you feel about Mormons.

In fact, both Romney and Cain trail President Barack Obama when it comes to voter

preference in November 2012, and by fairly similar margins. Including registered

voters who lean one way or the other, Obama leads Romney 47% to 39%. He is

ahead of Cain 48% to 40%.

Mitt Romney Herman Cain

47%

39%

7% 8%

48%

40%

5%8%

Barack Obama

Republican Candidate

Other

Not sure

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today,and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat,

and the following Republican candidate, would you vote forBarack Obama or the Republican candidate?

(Registered voters only)


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Republican voters are far more attentive to the 2012 campaign than their Demo-

cratic counterparts are. Nearly half say they are following the campaign very

closely, compared with just 24% of Democratic voters. Tea Partiers are even more

attentive — 64% of them are paying very close attention to the campaign.

P e r c e n t o f R e s p o n d e n t s F o l l o w i n g

E l e c t i o n s V e r y C l o s e l y

Attention to 2012 Elections"How closely have you been following news about the

2012 presidential election campaign?"

Republicans: 47%

Democrats: 24%

q

q

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

Aug 2011 Sept 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011

HALF OF GOP VOTERS SUPPORT FLAT TAX; BUT NEARLY

A THIRD DON’T

GOP presidential contenders have proposed various versions of tax reform, with

many including a flat tax proposal (Herman Cain’s 9-9-9; Rick Perry’s 20% flat

tax). The latest Economist /YouGov Poll finds limited support for a flat tax in prin-

ciple, even among Republican voters, and opposition from the public in general.

Asked about changing the tax system to a 19% flat tax (the best known of the many

flat tax plans), Americans oppose the plan 39% to 28%. There is more — but not

overwhelming — appeal to the registered voters who say they will vote in a Repub-

licans primary or caucus next year: they favor the flat tax plan 48% to 30%.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


All respondents


primary or caucus

28%

39%

33%

48%

30%

22%

Favor

Oppose

Not sure

Some people have proposed changing the federal income tax systemto a flat tax system. Under one proposed flat tax plan, all but

low−income Americans would pay 19% of their income in taxes,regardless of how much money they make.

Do you favor or oppose that proposal?

Tea Party identifiers are more supportive. They support the 19% flat tax plan three

to one, with 59% in favor and 18% opposed.

But support drops when the public is told that the biggest beneficiaries of a change

to a flat tax would be the well-off. Then nearly half the public say that would make

them more opposed to a flat tax. And while half of Republican primary voters say

that outcome would not change their opinion, more (31%) say that would makethem more opposed than say it would make them more support it more (20%).


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


All respondents


primary or caucus

14%

47%

39%

20%

31%

49%

More supportive of a flat tax

More opposed to a flat taxMy opinion on a flat tax would be unchanged

Suppose that under a flat tax plan, everyone got a tax cut,but people who earn the highest incomes saw the largestreductions in their tax bills. Would this make you more

or less supportive of a flat tax?

58% OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS SAY HILLARY

CLINTON WOULD BE A GOOD OBAMA RUNNING

MATE, BUT MOST DON’T EXPECT THAT TO

HAPPEN

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has become one of the most popular political fig-

ures in this country, and in this week’s Economist /YouGov Poll, 58% of Americans

(and 88% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of her.

Opinions of Vice President Biden are mixed among the public overall, and while

Democratic voters like Biden, they like Clinton even more.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

88%

58%

76%

41%

All respondents

Registered voters who are likely to vote

in a Democratic primary or caucus

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinionof the following people?

(Percent indicating a favorable opinion only)

By five to one, Democratic voters think Clinton would be a good choice for Barack

Obama’s running mate in 2012.

Very

good Good

Neither good,

nor bad Bad

Very

bad

Not

sure

36%

22%21%

7%

4%

10%

In your opinion, would Hillary Clinton be a good or a bad choice asPresident Obama's vice presidential running mate in 2012?

(Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus only)

But while they may like Clinton more, most Democratic voters are content having

Biden as the President’s 2012 running mate. In a question asked before Secretary


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


Clinton’s name was mentioned in the poll, 56% of Democratic voters said they

would keep Biden, and just 15% said the President should choose someone else.

KeepJoe Biden

Choose someonenew No opinion

56%

15%

29%

Do you think President Obama should keep Joe Bidenas his vice−presidential running mate in 2012,

or should he choose someone new?(Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus only)

Few Democratic voters expect President Obama to change running mates: 56%

think an Obama-Clinton ticket is unlikely.

AMERICANS ACCEPT OBAMA EXECUTIVE ORDERS

ON ECONOMY; 55% LIKE HIS REFINANCING PLAN

The President’s use of executive orders last week to help those facing foreclosure,

student debt and to assist unemployed veterans — bypassing Congress — meets

with general approval from Americans. In the latest Economist /YouGov Poll, nearly

half approve his actions, though the support is partisan, with Republicans over-whelmingly opposed.


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


Strongly

support

Somewhat

support

Somewhat

oppose

Strongly

oppose

Not

sure

28%

18%

8%

23% 23%

In the past week, President Obama announced executive actions tohelp homeowners facing foreclosure, borrowers with heavy student

loan debt, and unemployed veterans. He said his Administrationwill look for more opportunities to take executive actions

to help the economy without consulting Congress.

Do you support or oppose President Obama's decisionto take executive action to implement economic measures?

The President also gets support for his plan to expand a program that helps home-

owners who are current on their mortgage payments but owe more on their homes

than they are worth. About a quarter haven’t heard about this proposal, but by more

than two to one, the public likes the idea.

Strongly

support

Somewhat

support

Somewhat

oppose

Strongly

oppose

Not

sure

25%

30%

9%

13%

23%

Do you support or oppose President Obama's plan to help homeownerswho owe more than their homes are worth but are current on their

payments to refinance their mortgages to lower interest rates?


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More than a third expects it would help the housing market and the overall econ-

omy.

But the President’s approval rating on handling the economy remains low: just

31% approve this week, and 58% don’t. And there remains doubt about his jobsproposal. Only 26% say the President’s jobs plan will create a significant number

of new jobs.

His overall approval is little different from the reading last week: 41% approve.

P e r c e n t o f R e s p o n d e n t s

"Do you approve or disapprove of the wayBarack Obama is handling his job as President?"

Obama Approval

Approve: 41%

Disapprove: 52%

q

q

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

2009 2010 2011

MORE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCUPY WALL STREET

GOALS THAN OPPOSE THEM

In the last week, the country-wide Occupy Wall Street demonstrators faced off with

police officers in many cities, and protests continued. Americans continue to sup-

port the Occupy Wall Street goals, and the movement’s popularity continues with

nearly all groups — except Republicans.

Democrats and liberals are especially supportive, but the movement is more popu-


8/3/2019 YouGov write-up, 11.1.11


lar with those under the age of 65 than with senior citizens. It gets support in all

regions except the South. Even those with family incomes above $100,000 are as

likely to say they support the movement’s goals as to oppose them.

Opinions of OWS remain more positive than feelings about the Tea Party. Ameri-cans overall are more likely to oppose Tea Party goals than to support them.

The Tea Party movement The Occupy Wall Street movement

31%

17%

41%

11%

41%

21%

29%

9%

Support

Neither support, nor oppose

Oppose

Not sure

Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of...

(Asked if respondent is aware of these movements)


yougov write-up, 11.1.11

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