year of moderate growth; fortressing to impact ssg print...jubilant foodworks annual report analysis...

REDUCEJubilant FoodWorks CMP* (Rs) 1,205

Upside/ (Downside) (%) (13)

Bloomberg Ticker JUBI IN

Market Cap. (Rs bn) 159

Free Float (%) 58

Shares O/S (mn) 132

Retail | India

Institutional Equity Research

Annual Report Analysis | August 09, 2019

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Target Price: Rs1,050

Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth

Absolute performance 1.9 (8.3) (14.8)

Relative to Nifty (1.5) (7.8) (5.1)

Shareholding Pattern (%) June’19 Mar’19

Promoter 41.9 44.9

Public 57.9 57.9

1 Year Stock Price Performance

Note: * CMP as on Sept 07, 2019

Priyank ChhedaResearch Analyst

Contact: 022 4303 4625

Email: [email protected]

Naveen KulkarniHead of Research 022 - 4303 [email protected]

Year of Moderate Growth; Fortressing to Impact SSG Print

Key Financials (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 25,461 29,804 35,307 40,108 44,899 EBIDTA 2,466 4,464 6,078 6,754 7,068 Adj Net Profit 794 2,064 3,307 3,683 3,846 OCF 2,134 4,150 4,339 5,677 6,024 EPS (Rs) 6 16 25 28 29 PER (x) 92 74 58 43 41 EV/EBIDTA (x) 29 34 31 22 21 P/BV (x) 9 15 14 10 8 ROE (%) 10 22 28 25 22

Source: Company, RSec Research

Subsequent to the year of ‘Comeback’ (in FY18) and following the success of getting ‘Key Business Fundamentals Correct’ (in FY19), we sense Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI) to witness moderate SSG and higher investments across business ventures in the coming year. The Company has laid down key strategic focus areas for the year in AR 2019: 1) Fortressing Domino’s in India; (2) Elevating customer experience for both dine-in and delivery segments; (3) investments in digital assets and data science; (4) scaling-up Dunkin’ Donuts and Hong’s Kitchen; and (5) Building presence in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Please refer to Exhibit#1 for trend analysis of the five key vectors of growth over FY18/19/20E.

Moderate SSG Likely to Drag Operating Performance: After achieving seven-year high SSG print, JUBI is likely to witness moderation in growth given the higher base and lack of growth levers. Fortressing strategy, to grow deeper into higher growing markets is likely to impact 1-2% on SSG in FY20E (impacted by 1.7% in 1QFY20). Higher YoY base and general slowdown in discretionary spending is also likely to create pressure on dine-in segment. We expect JUBI’s revenue to clock 13% CAGR through FY20-21E, while EBITDA growth is likely to be restricted to 7.8% CAGR, owing to higher wage inflation and lower operating leverage. We expect EBITDA margin to compress by 37bps/110bps to 16.8/15.7% in FY20/21E.

Other Key Updates from Annual Report: (1) Contingent liabilities of Rs497mn majorly related to anti-profiteering charges of GST rate cuts (Rs414mn) and Sri Lankan impairment (Rs79mn) are key audit concerns since it requires management assumptions to estimate; Refer to Annexure1 to understand how SSG seems to be benefited due to GST benefits. (2) Reduction in promoter’s stake by 3% to 41.94%, out of which ~5% is under encumbrance by the lenders (as on 20th August 2019).

Factors to Impair Our Estimates Further: (1) Higher discounting intensity across the food service industry, new initiatives (Sri Lanka, Hong’s Kitchen and Bangladesh) impacting the standalone P&L; (2) lower operating leverage due to prolonged slowdown and increased competitive landscape can further pressurise operating performance.

Outlook & Valuation – Maintain REDUCEAs all levers to higher growth and margin expansion seem to be exhausted, we maintain our negative stance on JUBI’s business. Softer SSG print along with compression of EBITDA margin is likely to lead to downward trajectory in RoE from 28% in FY19 to 22% in FY21E. Such scenario is likely to keep the valuation multiples under check, even though being at optically historical lows. At CMP, the stock trades at 43x of FY20E earnings. Keeping our estimates unchanged, we maintain our REDUCE recommendation on the stock with a marginally revised Target Price of Rs1,050 (from Rs1,060 earlier) valuing it at ~36x (from 37x earlier).

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Jubilant FoodWorksAnnual Report Analysis | India


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CMP* (Rs) 1,205


Bloomberg Ticker JUBI IN Target Price: Rs1,050

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Exhibit 1: The Company believes the business model is built on below five vectors of growth. We have tried to compare the progress of these vectors over different years.

5 Vectors of Growth Annual Report 2018 Annual Report 2019 Strategy 2020

SSG Growth 14% 16% 6%*

RSEC View Year of Come back. Following the success and getting fundamentals correct

Year of moderation in growth and high investments.

Product Innovation f “All New Domino’s”

f “Aapne Kaha, Humne Kiya”

f Made softer and tastier crust

f New Tomato sauce

f More Cheese and toppings

f Launched two new pizzas

f Beverage offerings through the launch of Fountains with our new partner PepsiCo. Upgraded dine-in restaurants and introduced small-town menu.

f Added ‘Multigrain Crust’ to pizza menu

f Add five variety of Pizza Add-Ons

f New World Pizza league offerings with five international flavours

f Scale up Dunkin’ Donuts, Hong’s Kitchen and other cuisines to build brand portfolio.

f Nurture and build a strong International business in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and beyond.

Value for Money f Launched Every Day Value (EDV)

f Super Value Menu in small towns

f Dunkin Donuts - Donuts and Coffee Combos.

f Took cost rationalization measures

f Followed the EDV success

f Launched new combos

f Price hike taken to offset input tax credit loss

f Fortress Domino’s in India.

f Price hike taken to offset higher raw material inflation.

Customer Experience

f Improved Domino’s Pizza App

f Centralized call center

f Re-imaging of stores

f Late Night Delivery - 7 cities and 52 Restaurants

f Centralised call centre for better ordering experience.

f Rolled out new Domino store design in 4QFY19.

f All-night delivery – Available across 7 cities and 78 restaurants.

f Tie-up with IRCTC – available at 161 stations (upgraded now to mobile app and Mobile Website).

f Improved delivery time, railway ordering and mechanisms, self-ordering kiosks

f Elevate customer experience for both dine-in and delivery customers.

f Adding new concept stores.

Technology f Changed backend systems to eliminate payment and network issues

f Delivery on train

f Advance ordering & 1 click ordering

f Re-launched app with advance ordering

f Live order tracking and better payment interface.

f Investment in digital assets and data science across the organisation.

Cost Management f Renegotiated rentals

f Shut unprofitable (especially Dunkin)

f New commissary at Noida

f Breakeven in Dunkin Donuts was achieved in 3QFY19

f focus on core portfolio of donuts and beverages

f closure of loss-making restaurants

f cost rationalization

f Continue breakeven of Dunkin Donuts for FY20.

Source: Annual Reports: *Estimated SSG



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Exhibit 2: SSS – Expected to Normalise After Two Years of Double-digit Growth

Source: CRISIL Research, RSec Research

Exhibit 3: Moderation in Quarterly SSG Exhibit 4: Store Addition Pace is Likely to Moderate on Higher Base

Source: CRISIL Research, RSec Research Source: WGC, RSec Research



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Sri Lanka OperationsYet to Taste Success Even After 8 Years of Operation; Store Closures to Continue

100% Stake | 22 Stores | Total Investment of Rs 921mn | Revenue: Rs32.7mn | Pre-tax Loss: Rs9.04mn (as of FY19-end)

f Fine-tuned the business model with a focus on improving profitability.

f Upgraded the menu and launched 30-minute delivery guarantee.

f Sharpened the focus on marketing activities driving the everyday value proposition.

f Re-launched the Domino’s Pizza Mobile App to provide customers with improved functionalities and user experience.

f The Company undertook loss provisions of Rs79mn in FY19 due to closure of 3 stores.

RSec View: Since the beginning of operations in 2011, the Company has been incurring losses and now has been scaling down the stores. We expect closure of loss-making stores to continue in the coming quarters with the management’s focus on profitability.

Exhibit 5: Sri Lanka Operations

Source: RSec Research

Bangladesh OperationsNew beginning in high growing market; Lessons learnt from past mistake

51% Stake | Total Investment: Rs45.6mn | Store Count: 1 | Revenue: Rs1.9mn | Pre-tax Loss Rs3.68mn (as of FY19-end)

f JUBI launched Domino’s Pizza in Bangladesh through a JV with Golden Harvest QSR, a part of the Golden Harvest Group.

f The menu is a unique combination of some of the top international favourite pizzas along with pizzas that were developed specifically for Bangladesh.

f Opened first store in Dhaka and broke the global Domino’s record for the highest number of orders for its first week and the first month of operations.

RSec View: The Company is likely to scale operations up to 5 stores by FY20-end. It is focusing on providing higher value for money by aggressively priced menu options starting at Tk.149. In a high growing and developing market, JUBI is likely to taste initial success of new launches.



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Hong’s KitchenTrial & Test Phase Continues

Store: 1 (in NCR, Delhi)

f Focuses on fast-casual Chinese restaurant with dine-in and delivery services.

f Chinese food customised for the Indian palate.

f Launched its own App, the last-mile delivery will be handled by JUBI.

f Concept of “Live & Open” kitchen, where the consumers can watch their food being prepared.

f Separate preparation areas for vegetarian and non-vegetarian dishes.

RSec View: Separate brand under Chinese cuisine gives immense opportunity to tap the vast market potential between street vendors and fine-dining brands. Hong’s Kitchen is likely to enjoy the benefits of JUBI’s existing supply chain, management team and infrastructure. The Management has guided to open 10 stores in NCR by FY20 under trial and testing mode. We appreciate the management’s thrust to tap various opportunities in food and service industry of India. However, the success and profitability impact analysis is at least 3-4 years away.

Exhibit 6: Hong’s Kitchen offerings

Source: Zomato



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Key Audit Issues Auditor: Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP

f Ongoing litigation on anti-profiteering on GST amounting Rs414.2mn (part of contingent liability as a profiteering amount) are subjective and includes assumptions relating to likelihood and/or timing of cash flows from the business. The Delhi High Court in an interim order on March 13, 2019 stayed the National Anti-Profiteering Authority order and the penalty proceeding against the company subject to deposit of Rs200mn in Central Consumer Welfare Fund. The final decision is pending with the Delhi High Court. (Please refer to Annexure 1: Order filed by Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs).

f Impairment worth Rs79.3mn in Sri Lankan operations is done on the basis of management’s assumptions.

Key Related Party TransactionsExhibit 7: No Material Impact of Purchase of Goods from Jubilant Consumer

Transaction (Rs mn) FY19 FY18 Change (%)

Purchase of goods from Jubilant Consumer Pvt. Ltd.

307.4 263.8 17

Loan O/s to ESOP Trust. 0 169.3 Repaid Fully




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Exhibit 8: EBITDA margins are likely to compress by 37bps in FY20E. Exhibit 9: EBITDA margins are likley to compress by 109bps in FY21E

Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research

EBITDA Margin to Decline by 37bps YoY to 16.8% in FY20E f We price in gross margin expansion due to price hikes and savings from beverage

partner deal.

f We factor in 17% YoY growth in Employee cost due to higher wage inflation and various technological initiatives.

f Rent expenses are higher due to fortressed stores coming in matured markets having higher rent cost.

f We expect higher advertising (+17% YoY or 5% of sales), higher repairs and technological cost in other expenses.

EBITDA Margin Pegged at 15.7% in FY21E f All the levers of savings in raw material cost seem to be exhausted hence moderate

contraction expected due to price discounts..

f We factor in 15% YoY growth in employee cost forming 20% of sales incorporating initiatives required to retain talent.

f Rent expenses is likely to peak by FY21E.

f We expect brand investments to remain key focus (+15% YoY or 5.1% of sales) and lower operating leverage coming due to moderation in growth.

Subdued Operating Performance



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Exhibit 10: % Sales from Pizza has remained steady in the range of 75-78%

Exhibit 11: Cheese prices have remained benign, forms 36% of total raw material cost

Source: Company, RSec Research Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 12: JUBU continues to deliver the online delivery moat


Exhibit 13: Revenue growth likely to moderate going ahead Exhibit 14: EBITDA margin looks topped out at the current levels

Source: Company, RSec Research Source: Company, RSec Research



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Annexure 1: Key findings from the order:

f Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate on restaurants was reduced to 5% without Input Tax Credit (ITC) from 18% with ITC, with effect from November 15, 2017.

f However, the order stated that JUBI had increased the base prices (as explained in the table below).

f The Company claimed that it undertakes price hikes (usually in the range of 1-5%) every year of certain products due to inflation.

f Order claimed that company had taken increase in base price for ~80% of the number of products sold. The DGAP’s report suggest that company has taken more than 5.59% increase in base price for 170 items of 393 items sold.

Kindly note: The matter is pending with the Delhi High Court. This annexure is just for the illustrative purpose of how SSG is likely to be benefited due to increase in base price of certain products.

Exhibit 15: Decrease in selling price was due to reduction in GST rates but not in-line with reduction in GST rates

Source:: http://www.naa.gov.in/docs/Jubiliant%20Order.pdf

Exhibit 15: Another example explaining the increase in base price

Source:: http://www.naa.gov.in/docs/Jubiliant%20Order.pdf



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Profit & Loss Statement

Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net sales 25,461 29,804 35,307 40,108 44,899Growth, % 5.6 17.1 18.5 13.6 11.9

Raw material expenses (6,992) (8,425) (9,931) (11,053) (12,503)

Gross Profits 18,469 21,379 25,376 29,055 32,396

Gross Margins % 72.5 71.7 71.9 72.4 72.2

Employee expenses (5,845) (6,041) (6,725) (7,868) (9,048)

Rent (2,986) (3,157) (3,411) (3,922) (4,393)Other Operating expenses (7,171) (7,718) (9,163) (10,510) (11,887)

EBITDA (Core) 2,466 4,464 6,078 6,754 7,068

Growth, % (9.3) 81.0 36.2 11.1 4.6

Margin, % 9.7 15.0 17.2 16.8 15.7

Depreciation (1,512) (1,559) (1,523) (1,758) (2,008)Other Income 145 227 469 610 793

EBIT 1,099 3,132 5,024 5,606 5,853

Growth, % (30.8) 185.0 60.4 11.6 4.4

Margin, % 4.3 10.5 14.2 14.0 13.0

Extra-ordinary Items (122) - (79) - - Pre-tax profit 978 3,132 4,945 5,606 5,853

Tax provided (305) (1,068) (1,717) (1,923) (2,008)Profit after tax (Adjusted) 794 2,064 3,307 3,683 3,846

Growth, % (25.5) 159.9 60.3 11.4 4.4

Profit after tax (Reported) 673 2,064 3,228 3,683 3,846

Growth, % (36.9) 206.9 56.4 14.1 4.4

Total Equity shares (m) 132 132 132 132 132

EPS (Per share) 6 16 25 28 29

Balance Sheet


Equity 8,522 10,439 13,237 16,129 19,183

Total Liabilities 8,522 10,439 13,237 16,129 19,183

Net Fixed Assets 8,711 8,129 8,322 8,702 8,694

Strategic investments 744 822 887 1,087 1,287

Current Investments 936 2,631 1,808 1,808 1,808

Deferred Tax Assets (693) (550) (492) (492) (492)

Inventory 587 626 731 879 984

Debtors 156 151 327 220 246

Cash & Equivalents 324 1,285 4,891 7,439 10,471

Other Current Assets 327 312 257 257 257

Loans & Advances 1,535 1,724 1,915 2,417 2,706

Current Liabilities 739 599 902 902 902

Creditors 3,166 3,929 4,205 4,984 5,575

Provisions 201 163 301 301 301

Total Assets 8,522 10,439 13,237 16,129 19,184



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Cash Flow


Pre-tax profit 978 3,132 4,945 5,606 5,853

Depreciation 1,512 1,559 1,523 1,758 2,008

Opt Profits before working capital 2,487 4,505 6,154 7,364 7,861

Chg in working capital 14 906 (42) 236 171

Total tax paid (368) (1,262) (1,773) (1,923) (2,008)

Cash flow from operating activities 2,134 4,150 4,339 5,677 6,024

Capital expenditure (1,973) (1,140) (1,595) (2,138) (2,000)

Chg in investments (2) (1,880) 1,279 (200) (200)

Cash flow from investing activities (1,975) (3,011) (336) (2,338) (2,200)

Free cash flow 159 1,139 4,003 3,339 3,824

Equity raised/(repaid) 50 19 - - -

Dividend (incl. tax) (198) (198) (398) (791) (791)

Cash flow from financing activities (148) (178) (398) (791) (791)

Net chg in cash 11 961 3,605 2,548 3,033

Opening cash balance 314 324 1,285 4,891 7,439

Closing cash balance 324 1,285 4,891 7,439 10,471

Key Ratios

Y/E Mar FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per Share dataEPS (INR) 6 16 25 28 29

Growth, % (0.3) 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0

Book NAV/share (INR) 65 79 100 122 145

DPS (INR) 1.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Return ratiosAvg Return on assets (%) 9.6 21.8 27.9 25.1 21.8

Avg Return on equity (%) 9.6 21.8 27.9 25.1 21.8

Avg Return on capital employed (%) 8.7 22.1 34.3 38.5 38.2

Turnover ratiosAsset turnover (x) 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3

Sales/Net FA (x) 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.2

Receivable days 2 2 3 2 2

Inventory days 8 8 8 8 8

Payable days 45 48 43 45 45

Working capital days (35) (39) (33) (35) (35)

ValuationPER (x) 91.6 74 58 43.1 41.3

Price/Book (x) 8.5 14.7 14.4 9.9 8.3

EV/Net sales (x) 2.8 5.1 5.3 3.8 3.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 29.4 34.0 30.5 22.4 21.0

EV/EBIT (x) 65.9 48.5 36.9 27.0 25.4



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Rating Guides

Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months

BUY >10%

HOLD -5% to 10%

REDUCE >-5%

PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR DETAILED REPORTSDate Reco CMP TP

24-July-19 REDUCE 1,158 1,060

10-June-19 REDUCE 1,314 1,196

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year of moderate growth; fortressing to impact ssg print...jubilant foodworks annual report analysis...

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