xp presidential poll round 13 · 27 disclaimer political analysis this material was prepared by xp...

XP Presidential Poll –Round 13

August, 2018

2

Political Analysis

Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018

May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018

August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018

XP Presidential Polls

XP Presidential Poll - Details

Conducted by:

Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)

Sample:

1000 interviews/each week

Coverage:

National

Method:

Phone call interviews

Margin of Error:

1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. All files from previous polls and scenariosbreakdowns are available here.

http://bit.ly/2zAq3Zz

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Political Analysis

GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%

AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 40% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 27% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%

OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 17%WORKING 57% COUNTRY TOWNS 59%NOT WORKING 43% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 24%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 30% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 34% > 500.000 HAB 29%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 10% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 4% CATHOLIC 62%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 21% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 7%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 8% SPIRITTUALISM 4%MIDDLE SCHOOL 29% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 44% OTHER 5%HIGHER EDUCATION 19% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

Voter profile: current week distribution

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

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Political AnalysisHighlights

The first XP Presidential Poll released after the definition of the candidates of all parties showed that

Bolsonaro started the campaign as the leader in the scenario in which Lula isn’t considered. He has 23%

of votes, followed by Marina (11%), Alckmin (9%), Ciro (8%) and Haddad (7%). When Lula is the PT

candidate, the former president appears ahead with 31%, followed by Bolsonaro (20%).

Fernando Haddad (PT) support grew 4 p.p. to 7%. He’s now tied within the margin of error with Marina,

Alckmin and Ciro. Haddad also rose in the scenario in which he’s identified as “supported by Lula” (from

13% to 15%) and in all second-round scenarios.

It’s important to note that the scenarios were modified, adding more andidates. The order in which

the scenarios were read to the voters also changed. The scenario in which Lula is considered now come

before the others.

The voters were asked for the first time if they believe that Lula will run for president or not. 56% of

them say he won’t run, while 40% say he might run or will surely run. Among Haddad’s voters, 75% believe

that Lula will run. The opposite happens among Bolsonaro’s voters: 76% say he won’t run.

Voters were also asked if they believe that Lula should run or should he be prohibited from running.

Half of them say that Lula should be prohibited, while 44% believe he should be allowed to run. Among

voters of different candidates, the rates are also differ. Voters of left wing candidates are more likely to

defend Lula’s right to run, while 86% of Bolsonaro voters say he should be prohibited from running.

5

Political Analysis

1. Electoral Scenarios

2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis

XP Poll

6

Political AnalysisVoting Intention - Spontaneous

AugustWeek 3


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Political AnalysisScenario 1 – with Lula (PT)


AugustWeek 3

8

Political AnalysisScenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)


AugustWeek 3

9

Political AnalysisScenario 3 – Haddad with Lula’s support


AugustWeek 3

10

Political AnalysisSecond option


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Political Analysis

FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA

JAIR BOLSONARO

GERALDO ALCKMIN

MARINA SILVA

CIRO GOMES

ÁLVARO DIAS

UNDECIDED

ÁLVARO DIAS 1% 13% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 33% 1% 9% 8% 0% 9% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 4% 6% 18% 22% 0% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 2% 13% 0% 11% 8% 13% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 5% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 5% 0% 6% 18% 9% 23% 0%MARINA SILVA 18% 5% 16% 0% 12% 16% 0%JOÃO AMOÊDO 0% 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0%CABO DACIOLO 0% 6% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0%JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 1% 4% 6% 4% 9% 4% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 31% 42% 34% 31% 28% 25% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 3

2nd Option

Second option


12

Political AnalysisVote MigrationMICRODATA SPECIAL


13

Political Analysis2nd Round Scenarios


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15



16



17

Political AnalysisVoter conviction


18

Political AnalysisRejection


19

Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity


20

Political Analysis

Would Surely Vote

Could VoteWouldn't

Vote Dont't Know

EnoughDon'tKnow/

Didn'tAnswerTotal

LULA 30% 9% 60% 1% 1% 100%

BOLSONARO 20% 12% 58% 10% 1% 100%

MARINA 11% 21% 60% 7% 1% 100%

ALCKMIN 9% 23% 59% 8% 1% 100%

HADDAD 9% 11% 54% 26% 1% 100%

CIRO 8% 20% 59% 12% 1% 100%

A. DIAS 7% 13% 48% 31% 1% 100%

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T

VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.

Conviction, recognition and rejection.


AugustWeek 3

21

Political AnalysisExpectation of Victory


AugustWeek 3

22

Political Analysis

1. Electoral Scenarios

2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis

XP Poll

23

Political AnalysisInterest in the election


24

Political AnalysisPresident Approval


AugustWeek 3

25

Political Analysis


Will Lula run?

26

Political Analysis


Should Lula run?

27

Political AnalysisDisclaimer

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or

severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this

communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any

other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that

any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances

or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is

confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results

presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in

violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in

this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,

políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

xp presidential poll round 13 · 27 disclaimer political analysis this material was prepared by xp...

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