www.scotland.gov.uk/simd simd 2009 – technical aspects and use of the index matt perkins and...
TRANSCRIPT
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD 2009 – technical aspects and use of the
index
Matt Perkins and Andrew White
Office of the Chief Statistician
Scottish Government
5th February 2010
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD 2009 – technical aspects and use of the index
• Technical Aspects of SIMD– SIMD history– Domains and indicators– Methodology
• Using the SIMD– Where to find things– How to use the SIMD– Example
• Work in development
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD History -SIMD 2004• Work done in house (with some SDRC help)• Datazone geography• 6 aspects of deprivation (domains)
– Income – Employment– Health– Education– Access– Housing
• Data from 2001 and 2002
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD 2006• Evaluation of Statistical Techniques in the
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (2005 Dr Alex McConnachie, Dr Chris Weir, Robertson Centre for Biostatistics University of Glasgow)
• 7 domains– New crime domain added
• Public transport times included in access domain as sub-domain
• 37 indicators• Data (mostly) from 2004 and 2005• Published October 2006
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD 2009• Published on 29th October 2009• 7 domains
– Income– Employment– Health– Education– Access– Crime– Housing
• 38 indicators• Data (mostly) from 2007 and 2008
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Employment Deprivation Domain
• Based on benefits data (2008)– Unemployment Claimant Count
• 12 month average– Incapacity Benefit recipients
• Working age– Severe Disablement Allowance
• Working age– Compulsory New Deal Participants
• No change to 2004 indicators for 2006 or 2009• Datazone SAPE
– Working age population
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Income Deprivation Domain
• Not measuring income• Based on benefits data (2008 and 2007)
– Income support• adults and children
– Guarantee Pension Credit• adults
– Job Seekers Allowance• adults and children
• 2004 used WFTC and DTC data• 2009 – WTC and CTC (2006 data)• Datazone SAPE
– Total population
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Housing Deprivation Domain• Census data
– No change since SIMD 2004– Persons in households which are
overcrowded– Persons in households without central heating
• Census populations– Total population
• No new indicators identified
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Crime Domain• Relevant to Neighbourhood Deprivation• ‘SIMD crime’ not ‘Total Crime’
– Crimes of violence– Drug Offences– Domestic Housebreaking– Minor Assault– Vandalism
• Does not include crimes in/near police station• First included in 2006• Total populations – rate per 10,000• Move to financial year for SIMD 2009
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Health Deprivation Domain• Indicators used:
– Standardised Mortality Ratio*– Hospital Episodes related to alcohol use*– Hospital Episodes related to drug use*– Comparative Illness Factor*– Emergency Admissions to Hospital*– Proportion of population being prescribed drugs for anxiety,
depression or psychosis– Proportion of live singleton births of low birth weight
• *Age – Sex Standardisation• Methodological changes since 2004
– Removal of Shrinkage• Minor changes for 2009• Normalised and combined using factor analysis
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Education Deprivation Domain• Indicators
– School pupil absences– Pupil Performance on SQA at Stage 4– Working age people with no qualifications– 17-21 year olds enrolling into HE– People ages 16-18 not in full time education,
employment or training
• NEET indicator change for 2009• Populations relevant to indicator• Combined using factor analysis
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Access to Services Domain (indicators)• Drive Times
– GP– Shopping facilities (Supermarket in 2004)– Petrol Station– Primary and Secondary Schools (Primary only in
2004)– Post Office
• Public Transport (Not included in SIMD 2004)– GP– Shopping Facilities– Post Office
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
• Population weighted based on COAs
• Factor analysis within sub-domains• Methodology and modelling changes• Change to sub-domain weights. (3/4:1/4 – 2/3:1/3)
Access to Services Domain (methodology)
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Creating the index• Data zones ranked on 7 domains• Exponential Transformation• Combine to give index• Weights based on:
– Academic research– Data quality– Sensitivity analysis
• Use ranks for analysis
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Domains and Weightings2004 2006 2009
Domains weight
% of overall weight Domains weight
% of overall weight weight
% of overall weight
Current Income 6 29 Current Income 12 28 12 28
Employment 6 29 Employment 12 28 12 28
Health 3 14 Health 6 14 6 14
Education, Skills and training 3 14
Education, Skills and training 6 14 6 14
Geographic Access and Telecommunications 2
10 Geographic Access:
4 9 4 9
~ Drive times 0.75 0.66
~ Public transport times
0.25 0.33
Housing 1 5 Housing 1 2 1 2
- - - Crime 2 5 2 5
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Use of the index
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Where to find things• SIMD publication, SIMD technical report, etc• SIMD website - publications, analysis, data,
interactive mapping: www.scotland.gov.uk/simd• Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics – wealth of
data zone level data and reporting tool: www.sns.gov.uk
• SNS user forum - SIMD presentations, geography look ups: www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/statistics/sns
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Some ways to use the index• 15% most deprived datazones in Scotland, (or
10%, or 20%)• SIMD domains• SIMD within an area eg 10% most deprived data
zones in D&G• SIMD indicators• Relative vs Absolute change• Change over time.• Concentrations within an area (income and
employment domains)
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Distribution of employment deprived* people
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Employment Domain Vigintile
% W
ork
ing
Ag
e P
op
ula
tio
n E
mp
loym
ent
Dep
rive
d
2004 2006 2009
Most Deprived Least Deprived
*Claiming Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance or on unemployment claimant count orNew Deal participants. Not ‘worklessness’ and not ‘unemployed’
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Some ways to use the index• 15% most deprived datazones in Scotland, (or
10%, or 20%)• SIMD domains• SIMD within an area eg 10% most deprived data
zones in D&G• SIMD indicators• Relative vs Absolute change• Change over time.• Concentrations within an area (income and
employment domains)
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
An example forDumfries & Galloway
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
0.09 0.240.250.260.15
Box plots showing distribution of D&G datazones
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Some things to consider
• Aims of analysis – the SIMD is A measure of deprivation
• Overall index vs domains vs indicators
• SIMD methodology
• Age / time period of data
• Population
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Work in development
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Current plans• Combining population data with SIMD• Guidance and examples of change over
time analysis at LA level• Relative vs Absolute change
• Analysis of change over time (Scotland)• National Performance Framework and
Local Outcome Indicators• More presentations and guidance• Annual updates to indicators and domains
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
SIMD and rural areas• Index identifies deprived datazones in both
urban and rural areas.• Identifies small area concentrations of multiple
deprivation.• The indicators which make up the SIMD are
chosen because they are measures of deprivation regardless of where a person lives.
• However deprivation more spatially dispersed in rural areas.
• Other factors, such as population decline, may also pose particular challenges for rural areas.
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Rural indicators• SG looking into creating new ‘population’ domain
and combining it with existing income, employment and access domains
• Possible population indicators include:– Population density– Population change– Change in population aged 0-15– Change in population of pension age– Change in ratio of population aged 0-15 to working
age population– Change in ratio of population of pension age to
working age population
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Population domain – INITIAL FINDINGS
• Initial investigations suggest that these indicators may not be sufficiently correlated with each other to allow creation of a population domain
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
INITIAL FINDINGS - Lack of correlation between indicators
Pop'n change v change in ratio of population aged 0-15 to working age population
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
Pop'n change
chan
ge
in 0
-15:
wa
0-15 change v pension change
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0-15 change
Pen
sio
n c
han
ge
Population density v 0-15 change
-150-100-50
050
100150200250300
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Density
0-1
5 c
han
ge
Change in ratio of children to working age population v change in ratio of pensioners to working age population
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
change in 0-15:wa
ch
an
ge in
pen
s:w
a
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Population domain – INITIAL FINDINGS
• Initial investigations suggest that these indicators may not be sufficiently correlated with each other to allow creation of a population domain
• Also shows that, in general, population decline not worse in more rural areas
• Likely that there are particular rural areas experiencing problems but that these problems are not necessarily an issue for all rural areas.
• Also possible that population decline in a rural area poses a more significant problem than a similar level of population decline in an urban area.
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
Population change by 8-fold Urban-Rural Classification
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Population Child (0-15) population Working age (16-59/64)population
Pension age (60/65+)population
Per
cen
tag
e ch
ang
e (2
005-
08)
Large Urban Areas Other Urban Areas Accessible Small Tow ns Remote Small Tow ns
Very Remote Small Tow ns Accessible Rural Remote Rural Very Remote Rural
www.scotland.gov.uk/simd
ANY QUESTIONS?
Contacts:
Andrew White
Tel: 0131 244 7714
Matt PerkinsTel: 0131 244 [email protected]
Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS & SIMD)
Tel: 0131 244 0442