wpd presentation population and development with reference to the mdgs presentati… · ·...

Population and Population and DevelopmentDevelopment

in Jamaica with reference in Jamaica with reference to the MDGSto the MDGS

PresenterPresenter

Mr. Easton WilliamsMr. Easton Williams

Population UnitPopulation Unit

Planning Institute of JamaicaPlanning Institute of Jamaica

June 14, 2009June 14, 2009

World Population DayWorld Population Day

General Perspectives on General Perspectives on Population and DevelopmentPopulation and Development

Countries are poor because their populations are growing too rapidly

(high fertility)

Policy Response:

Family Planning is the solution

General PerspectivesGeneral Perspectives

Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped

Policy Response:

Development is the solution(Popular slogan, ‘Development is the best

contraceptive’)

General Perspectives

Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped and their population

is growing too rapidly

Policy Response:

Implement policies for development and reduce population growth

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel

Provides a general framework for

analyzing population change over time.

Developed countries have moved from high birth and deaths rates to low birth and death rates.

Developing countries are expected to make the same transition.

Developed Countries Demographic Transition Developed Countries Demographic Transition TrendsTrends

18501850--19501950

3540

12

25

1510

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1850s 1900s 1950s

Periods

Rate

s

CBR CDR

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition ModelDeveloping CountriesDeveloping Countries

• In its simplest form, the model posits that poor countries will transit the following board stages:

(a) From high births rates and death rates with low population growth and low development

(b) Through declining birth and death rates with high population growth and moderate development

(c) To low birth and death rates with low population growth and developed country status.

JamaicaJamaica’’s Demographic Transitions Demographic Transition

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate

Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, various years

JamaicaJamaica’’s Demographic Transitions Demographic Transition

• Jamaica is currently at an intermediate stage in its demographic transition

• Population growth has been below 1.0 per cent since 1998

• Population growth rate is influenced by declining natural increase and high external migration.

• Fertility, Mortality rates and migration influence the age structure of the population

Population StructurePopulation Structure

• Population structure is usually classified into three main groups:

– Child Population (0-14 yrs)

– Working Age Population (15-64 yrs)

– Dependent Elderly Population (65+)

• Jamaica population structure is changing

• Changes being impacted mainly by lower fertility and mortality rates

Characteristics of a Population in Characteristics of a Population in TransitionTransition

• The child population is decreasing

• The working age and elderly population are increasing

• Mean household size is declining

• Total age dependency ratio is declining

• The increase in the working age population creates a ‘demographic bonus’ which is a window of opportunity for economic development.

Total Population of JamaicaTotal Population of Jamaica

Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1970

1991

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

Years

To

tal P

op

ula

tio

n

Total Population

Child Population of JamaicaChild Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1970

1982

1991

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Years

Ch

ild

Po

pu

latio

n

0-14 Age Group


Elderly Population of JamaicaElderly Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1970

1982

1991

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Years

Dep

en

den

t E

lderl

y P

op

ula

tio

n

65+


Working Age Population of JamaicaWorking Age Population of Jamaica19701970--20502050

0200,000400,000

600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000

1,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

1970

1991

2005

2015

2025

2035

2045

Years

Wo

rkin

g A

ge

Po

pu

lati

on

15-64


Age Structural Transition of Age Structural Transition of Population, JamaicaPopulation, Jamaica

19701970--20502050


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1970

1982

1991

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Years

Number of Persons

Child Population Working AgeDependent Ederly Total Population

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

2001 Male 2001 Female

Population Pyramid, 2001

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

2020 Male 2020 Female


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Male Female


Population and the MDGs with focus on Economic Growth, Poverty and Health

(1) Population (1) Population and Economic and Economic GrowthGrowth

Does population Does population growth growth

undermines undermines economic growth economic growth

in Jamaica?in Jamaica?

Population and Economic GrowthPopulation and Economic Growth

• The debate at the global level is ongoing.

• Prior to the 1990s, data for some developing countries did not support the general position that high population growth correlates with low economic growth.

• However the global data, post 1990s, correlates good with high population growth and low economic growth.

• Jamaica’s experience, post 1990s, would suggest that population growth is not a real problem hindering economic growth.

Population and Economic GrowthPopulation and Economic Growth

Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate (1970Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate (1970--

2007)2007)

-9.0-8.0-7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.0

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Gro

wth

Rate

s

Per Capita Real GDP Grow th Rate Population Grow th Rate

Source: STATIN

2) Population and Poverty

Does population Does population growth and poverty growth and poverty

correlates?correlates?

MDG Goal:MDG Goal:

Eradicate Poverty Eradicate Poverty and extreme hunger and extreme hunger

Population and PovertyPopulation and Poverty

Prevalence of Absolute PovertyPrevalence of Absolute Poverty

• Despite the low levels of real GDP growth experienced over the last three decades, Jamaica has still managed to reduce the prevalence of absolute poverty.

• The eradication of absolute poverty is the first goals of the list of MDGs.

• Target is to half the proportion of people living below the poverty line between 1990 and 2015

• Jamaica has achieved this target since 2005

• In 1990 the population living below the poverty line was estimated at 28.4%. In 2007 this was reduced to 9.8%.


Prevalence of Absolute PovertyPrevalence of Absolute Poverty

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Years

% P

rev

ale

nc

e o

f P

ov

ert

y

JamaicaSource: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007


AbsoluteAbsolute Poverty Prevalence RatesPoverty Prevalence Rates, , 19901990--20082008


Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, 19901990--20082008

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.01

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

Years

% P

rev

ale

nc

e o

f P

ov

ert

y

KMA Other Towns Jamaica Rural Areas

Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007

(3)Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence

MDG Target:

Universal access to reproductive health

Fertility and ContraceptionFertility and Contraception

FFertilityertility

• Jamaica fertility rate has been declining from as early as the late 1960s.

• Declining fertility rates are being impacted by increasing access to reproductive health services and other factors including education and labour force participation

Years Rates

1975 4.5

1983 3.5

1989 2.9

1990 2.8

1993 3.0

1997 2.8

2002 2.5

2010 2.2p

2015 2.1p

Source: Demographic statistics, STATIN, various years


Fertility Trends, 1975Fertility Trends, 1975--20152015Women 15Women 15--49 Years49 Years

Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Births per

1000

1975 1983 1989 1990 1993 1997 2002 2010 2015

Years


Adolescent Fertility Rates, 1989Adolescent Fertility Rates, 1989--20022002

102 107 112 79

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Births per

1000

1989 1993 1997 2002

Years

Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB


• One of the targets of MDGs # 5: Universal Universal

Access to reproductive healthAccess to reproductive health

• Status of Target: On Track

• Indicators: a. Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

b. Unmet needs for family planning


Contraceptive PrevalenceContraceptive Prevalence

• Universal knowledge of at least one modern method of contraception.

• Contraceptive prevalence rate of near 70% of women, 15-49, in union.

• Unmet need for family planning declined to under 10% in 2002 from 16% in 1990.


Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Planning, 1989Planning, 1989--20022002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1989 1993 1997 2002

CPR Unmet NeedsSource: RHS, National Family Planning Board

(4)Infant, (4)Infant, Child and Child and Maternal Maternal HealthHealth

MDG Goal:MDG Goal:Goal #4: Reduce Child Goal #4: Reduce Child MortalityMortality

Goal #5: Improve Goal #5: Improve Maternal HealthMaternal Health

Infant, Child and Maternal HealthInfant, Child and Maternal Health

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

• The reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is another goal of the MDGs

• Target to reduce IMR by two-thirds by 2015

• IMR was at 24.5 in 1990 and 22.1 in 2000


Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

• Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.0%.

• Annual rate of decline needs to be 6.5% to meet the MDG target by 2015

• Jamaica is far behind


Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates

24.4 22.05

8.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

RATES

1990 2000 2015

YEAR

1990

2000

2015

Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years


Child MortalityChild Mortality

• The reduction of Under-five mortality is another goal of the MDG

• Target includes reducing under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds by 2015


Child MortalityChild Mortality

• The annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.3%

• To achieve target however, the annual rate of decline has to be 5.1%

• Jamaica is far behind


Child Mortality RateChild Mortality Rate

29.525.9

11.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

RATES

1990 2000 2015

YEAR

1990

2000

2015

Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years


Maternal MortalityMaternal Mortality

• The reduction of Maternal Mortality is another goal of the MDGs

• Target is to reduce Maternal Mortality to two-thirds its 1990 level by 2015



• Lack of up-to-date data on MMR

• Data for 1986-1987, shows that MMR is 120/100,000.

• More recent data shows MMR at only 94.8/100,000 in 2000

• To achieve this MDG target, MMR must be reduced to 30/100,000 by 2015



• Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 2.3%

• In order to achieve the target, annual rate of decline has to be 7.4%.

• Jamaica is far behind.

Summary Summary --JamaicaJamaica’’s Progress in the s Progress in the MDGsMDGs

• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

(ACHIEVED)

• Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education

(ACHIEVED)

• Goal 3:Promote gender equality and empower women

(LAGGING)

• Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality(FAR BEHIND)

• Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health(FAR BEHIND)

• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease

(ON TRACK)

• Goal 7:Ensure environmental sustainability(LAGGING)

• Goal 8:Develop a global partnership for development

SummarySummary-- JamaicaJamaica’’s Progress in the s Progress in the MDGsMDGs

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