worldwide prospects for renewable energy towards 2050 and ... · 18 upsurge of coal •according to...

Worldwide Prospects for Renewable Energy

Towards 2050 and Beyond

Trial Lecture

Georgi H. Yordanov

17 December 2012

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OUTLINE

• Why the World needs renewable energy (RE)

• Q1: How much RE by 2050?

• Q2: What relative shares of the different RES?

• Scenarios for the energy portfolio until 2050

• Overview of the most promising RE technologies

• Atmospheric GHG must be kept within 450 ppm

CO2 eq. in order to avoid Climate Catastrophe

• Nuclear power generation is associated with

unacceptably high risks for human health and

the environment. Examples: Chernobyl, Fukushima,

3-Mile Island… Radioactive waste!!!

•Earth’s population has surpassed 7 BN and is

depleting its resources at unprecedented rates!

Peak Oil, Peak Gas, etc. Most RE is extrinsic (the

sun; Availability ~ 109 yr). Long-term sustainability!

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WHY WE NEED RE

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ENERGY PATHS

Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012

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ENERGY BY PRESENT

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012

33 % Oil; 30 % Coal; 24 % Gas; 8 % RE (6.5 % Hydro)

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DISTRIBUTION


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RE 2008


Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 8

RISING POPULATION

Source: UN 9

RISING POPULATION

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QUO VADIS, MANKIND?!

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POSSIBLE FUTURES

Source: IPCC Climate Change Report, 2007

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ΔT ≤ +2°C by 2100!!!

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• A great challenge: keep the increase in the mean

global T below 2°C by 2100!!!

• ΔT > 2°C dangerous disruption to the climate

numerous and significant risks to mankind

• UN Climate Change Conf. (Copenhagen, Dec 2009):

no binding time-table, global coordination, viable

monitoring system nor scope to impose sanctions

• The EU: a greater sense of urgency is needed!!!

THE FUTURE WE WANT

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DECARBONIZATION

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012

RE use is a key part of the actions needed to reduce

the man-made GHG emissions (CO2 in particular)

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A MANY PARTS SOLUTION

RE use alone may not be enough! Need efficiency, CCS, etc.

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WHAT IF CCS FAILS?

IEA: Lack of progress in carbon capture and storage (CCS)!!!

We may need more RE than we think or want!!!

Where Are We Now?

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• IEA: Only a portfolio of more mature RE technologies –

hydro, biomass, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic

(PV) – are making sufficient progress.

• Fossil fuels still dominant; demand growth continues,

locking in high-carbon infrastructure. The investments

made today will determine the energy system that is in

place in 2050.

• IEA, EU concerned about “the lack of (sufficient)

progress in clean energy”

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UPSURGE OF COAL

•According to BP, the key determinants for the

future of the GHG emissions are China and India

•“GDP of China and India ~2x by 2020” (Dieter Helm

Professor, Uni. Oxford – “The Carbon Crunch”)

•400–600 GW new coal-fired power plants if the 12th

5-year plan is implemented in China (Ibid.)

•New coal-fired PPs to replace nuclear in Germany!

•Solution: coalgas + CO2 cons. tax + MUCH RE!!!

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PRESENT MEASURES

German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU):

judging from the current pledges, a global mean T

increase of ≥ 3ºC can be expected by 2100

Energy system transformation is inevitable anyway!

Proposed: Climate Policy Contagion led by the EU!

100 % RE in EU by 2050 (!!!) + energy efficiency!!!

EU-wide FIT for RE to ensure financial support

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DOHA CC CONFERENCE

• 27 Nov – 8 Dec, 2012, Doha, Qatar

• Russia, Japan and Canada withdrew from Kyoto!!!

• Expiry of the Kyoto protocol (end of 2012) would leave the world with no legally binding deal to confront global warming!

Source: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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EU ROADMAP 2050

•High RE scenario: 75 % RE if CCS fails!!! Grid costs

€ 55×109/year; STORAGE!!! No. 1 - wind

•Current policies (post-Fukushima): ≥ 55 % RE

•Electricity share ~2x (36-39 % in 2050)

•Discussion on binding RE target will begin soon

•The 20 % efficiency improvement by 2020 is failing!

High efficiency scenario: energy demand ‒45 %.

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IPCC: RE 2050

• The IPCC believes 77 % RE possible by 2050

1/3 less GHG emissions than business-as-usual

Atmospheric GHG kept within 450 ppm CO2 eq.

Global mean T increase ≤ 2°C (equilibrium value)

• Requires consistent climate and energy policy!!!

• 164 scenarios; solar ≤ 40 %; wind > 20 %

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IPCC SCENARIOS


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IPCC SCENARIOS

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SHELL’S “SCRAMBLE”

• The worse of 2 scenarios (2 imperfect futures)

• Primary energy in 2050: ~ 850 EJ/yr; RE: > 300 EJ/yr (35 %)

Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

EU Energy targets 20-20-20 by 2020:

Solar, wind and biomass are the technologies progressing most

rapidly. Solar and wind develop for electricity generation while

biomass remains dominant for the heating sector.

Source: EU Commission 26

THE EARLY STAGE

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POTENTIALS


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BIOMASS Low-efficiency bioenergy

plays a critical role in the

lives of billions in the

developing countries.

High-efficiency modern

bioenergy uses more

convenient solids,

liquids and gases as

secondary energy carriers

to generate heat,

electricity, CHP, and

transport fuels.

~ 60 EJ/yr at present

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BIOENERGY IN 2050

•Estimated potential in 2050: 100-300 EJ/yr

•Achieving 300 EJ/yr would require major policy

efforts, especially targeting improvements and

efficiency increases in the agricultural sector and

good governance of land use (e.g., zoning).

•ΔT ≤ 2°C would require on the average 160 EJ/yr

(i.e., a compound annual growth rate of 3 %/yr).

Possible?? GDP grew ~3.3 %/yr (1970-2010) but

with low-cost transport & energy; Unemployment:

China 4.1 %, EU 10.7 %, US 7.7 %

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ENABLERS VS. RISKS


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PHOTOSYNTHETIC UPTAKE IS IMPORTANT!

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BIOENERGY ROUTES


DIRECT SOLAR • 4 main technologies: thermal, PV, CSP & fuels production

• Most pessimistic technical potential: ~1,600 EJ/yr (2008: 492 EJ)

• Current use of primary solar energy: ~0.7 EJ/yr

• 2050: 15-80 EJ/yr (avg. ~35 EJ/yr); Avg. growth rate 11 %/yr

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PV & CSP


• PV is the fastest growing solar technology thanks to subsidies (FIT)

• The compound growth rate over the past decade was ~50 %/yr!!!

• HCPV is much less competitive than PV (requires sun tracking)

• Unlike CSP, residential PV & thermal ratings start from a few kWP!

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GEOTHERMAL


• Peak fluxes concentrated at active tectonic regions;

• Presently < 0.5 EJ/yr

• Projections for 2050 average at ~4 EJ/yr (requires growth 6 %/yr)

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HYDROPOWER Present PE use: 13 EJ/yr; 2050: ~ 20 EJ/yr (max. 52 EJ/yr)

WIND ENERGY

• 3 % of the worldwide electricity demand in 2012

• Could grow to > 20 % by 2050 in ambitious scenarios

• Onshore wind is being deployed rapidly in many countries

• Already competitive in areas with good wind resources

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WIND ENERGY 2050

• Present primary wind energy use: 1.8 EJ/yr

• Median projection for 2050: 27 EJ/yr (required growth: 7.4 %/yr)

• 14 % of global electricity supply

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OCEAN ENERGY • 6 types of energy; most technologies in early development stage

• Until about 2008, ocean energy was not considered in any of the

major global energy scenario modeling activities.

• Pessimistic projections for 2050: < 1 EJ/yr


RE BEYOND 2050

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RE use depends on developments; 4 key scenarios; My guess for

2100: pop. 7-11 BN; a hot (+3-5°C), regional, depleted world

RE2100 ≈ RE2050±50 % Limits to Growth 7 BN?!!

worldwide prospects for renewable energy towards 2050 and ... · 18 upsurge of coal •according to...

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