world's top chemical tanker trade routes 2019 · paraxylene and caustic soda solution from the...

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MARCH 2019

WORLD’S TOP CHEMICAL TANKER

TRADE ROUTES 2019

• Copyright © 2019 ShipsFocus Intelligence

CONTENTS

01 World’s Liquid Chemical Trade Volume Stagnates in 2018………………………..2

02 Top 20 Chemical Tanker Trade Routes by Volume……………………………………..3

03 Top 20 Chemical Tanker Trade Routes by Ton.Mile....……………………………….4

04 Top Trade Routes Slow Down…..………………………………..……..…………………..…….5

05 Bright Spots In Smaller Trade Routes……………………………………..………………….7

06 World’s Top 10 Most Trade Liquid Chemicals……………………..……..……………...9

• Copyright © 2019 ShipsFocus Intelligence 2

WORLD’S LIQUID CHEMICAL TRADE VOLUME STAGNATES IN 2018

Liquid chemical cargoes traded and shipped around the world stagnated in 2018 after

an exceptional growth of 7% the year before. While overall chemical tanker ton-miles

demand increased marginally at 1%, there are some big changes both in terms of

volume and ton-mile in some trade routes, particularly in the smaller ones.

It does pay for chemical tanker operators to keep abreast of these continual changes

and also expectations for this year. Chemical freight rates have rebounded in 2018, in

line with our previous forecast in early 2018. A big challenge is in the overall level of

traded chemical volume, which we expect to be muted until after summer and could

remain pressured through the year. Nonetheless, a key favourable factor for 2019 is

a net negative growth in chemical tanker new buildings in 2019 and 2020. Shrewd

investors will shift to focus their firepower on second-hand ships, especially those

with stainless steel tanks which are now available at substantial discounts.

Comparatively, new buildings should be only favoured by owner-operators for fleet

renewal as prices are high relative to current TC earnings.

CHART 1: CHART 1: CHART 1: CHART 1: ANNUAL GLOBAL CHEMICAL TRADE VOLUME & TON.MILE

183.0MMT

195.3MMT

195.2MMT

2016 2017

GLOBAL LIQUID CHEMICAL ANNUAL VOLUME GROWTH ESTIMATED IN 2018:

2018E

� 0.05%VS +6.7% IN 2017

596.6BIL

TON-MILE

634.2BIL

TON-MILE

640.3BIL

TON-MILE

2016 2017

+ 1.0%

GLOBAL LIQUID CHEMICAL ANNUAL TON-MILE GROWTH ESTIMATED IN 2018:

Produced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocus IntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligence

VS +6.3% IN 20172018E

IN TERMS OF CARGO VOLUME:IN TERMS OF CARGO VOLUME:IN TERMS OF CARGO VOLUME:IN TERMS OF CARGO VOLUME: IN TERMS OF TONIN TERMS OF TONIN TERMS OF TONIN TERMS OF TON----MILE:MILE:MILE:MILE:


WORLD’S TOP 20 TRADE ROUTES

BY VOLUME

The Intra-North East Asian and Intra-European Continental trade routes secure their top

positions in terms of absolute trade volumes and continue to prove the proximity advantage.

Increase in South-East Asian exports to North-East Asia lets this trade route move one rank

up to 5th position, while NAFTA trade to North-East Asia also moved up one rank to 6th

position.

RANKRANKRANKRANK TRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTE 2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT) 2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME % CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE

1111 INTRA-NEAINTRA-NEAINTRA-NEAINTRA-NEA 26.9 -3.9% 9� 0

2222 INTRA-CONTINTRA-CONTINTRA-CONTINTRA-CONT 25.2 -0.2% 9� 0

3333 MIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEA 16.9 +0.5% 9� 0

4444 INTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTA 11.6 +4.1% 9� 0

5555 SEA/NEASEA/NEASEA/NEASEA/NEA 6.6 +5.1% 9� 1

6666 NAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEA 6.5 +2.5% 9� 1

7777 NAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAM 6.7 -4.2% 9� 2

8888 NEA/SEANEA/SEANEA/SEANEA/SEA 5.6 +8.9% 9� 1

9999 INTRA-SEAINTRA-SEAINTRA-SEAINTRA-SEA 5.9 -6.1% 9� 1

10101010 CONT/MEDCONT/MEDCONT/MEDCONT/MED 4.8 +0.7% 9� 0

11111111 MIDDLE EAST/ISCMIDDLE EAST/ISCMIDDLE EAST/ISCMIDDLE EAST/ISC 4.8 -19.8% 9� 0

12121212 CONT/BALTIC SEACONT/BALTIC SEACONT/BALTIC SEACONT/BALTIC SEA 3.1 +16.1% 9� 0

13131313 MIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEA 2.9 +15.2% 9� 0

14141414 NEA/ISCNEA/ISCNEA/ISCNEA/ISC 2.4 +30.1% 9� 9

15151515 MED/CONTMED/CONTMED/CONTMED/CONT 2.5 +12.2% 9� 7

16161616 NAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONT 2.6 +1.7% 9� 2

17171717 NEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTA 2.7 -4.2% 9� 2

18181818 ISC/NEAISC/NEAISC/NEAISC/NEA 1.4 +74.5% 9� 12

19191919 BALTIC SEA/CONTBALTIC SEA/CONTBALTIC SEA/CONTBALTIC SEA/CONT 2.6 -7.2% 9� 0

20202020 SEA/ISCSEA/ISCSEA/ISCSEA/ISC 2.5 -3.5% 9� 1

RANK RANK RANK RANK

CHANGECHANGECHANGECHANGE

25.9

25.2

17.0

12.0

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.1

5.6

4.8

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4 Produced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocusProduced by ShipsFocus IntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligence

TABLE TABLE TABLE TABLE 1111: : : : TOP 20 TRADE ROUTES BY VOLUME


BY TON-MILE

Middle-East (mainly Middle-East Gulf) exports to North-East Asia help this trade route retain

its supreme position in terms of ton-miles. While the top 6 trade routes maintain their

respective positions, there are several major changes that have taken place. Several trade

routes enjoy substantial double-digit growth, for eg. North-East Asian exports to South

America mark a whopping 82.8% YoY growth; while Indian Sub-Continental exports to North-

East Asia grew by 74%; favourably for ship-operators, the perfect backhaul trade from North-

East Asia to Indian Sub-Continent grew substantially at over 30%. Carriers that service the

Middle-East to European Continent trade route also enjoy a volume growth of 25% YoY.

RANKRANKRANKRANK TRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTETRADE ROUTE 2018 TON-MILE (IN BILLIONS)2018 TON-MILE (IN BILLIONS)2018 TON-MILE (IN BILLIONS)2018 TON-MILE (IN BILLIONS)2017 TON-2017 TON-2017 TON-2017 TON-

MILEMILEMILEMILE% CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE

1111 MIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEAMIDDLE EAST/NEA 99.4 +0.8% 9� 0

2222 NAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEANAFTA/NEA 63.4 +2.4% 9� 0

3333 NAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAMNAFTA/SAM 34.7 -4.2% 9� 0

4444 NEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTANEA/NAFTA 26.5 -4.0% 9� 0

5555 INTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTAINTRA-NAFTA 23.0 +4.9% 9� 0

6666 INTRA-NEAINTRA-NEAINTRA-NEAINTRA-NEA 18.9 -2.7% 9� 0

7777 NEA/ISCNEA/ISCNEA/ISCNEA/ISC 11.9 +30.8% 9� 4

8888 SEA/NEASEA/NEASEA/NEASEA/NEA 14.6 +5.7% 9� 1

9999 NAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONTNAFTA/CONT 13.2 +2.1% 9� 1

10101010 NEA/SAMNEA/SAMNEA/SAMNEA/SAM 7.4 +82.8% 9� 16

11111111 NEA/SEANEA/SEANEA/SEANEA/SEA 12.1 +10.3% 9� 1

12121212 MIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEAMIDDLE EAST/SEA 11.1 +14.1% 9� 1

13131313 ISC/NEAISC/NEAISC/NEAISC/NEA 6.8 +74.0% 9� 18

14141414 ANZ/NEAANZ/NEAANZ/NEAANZ/NEA 10.1 +11.7% 9� 3

15151515 NAFTA/ISCNAFTA/ISCNAFTA/ISCNAFTA/ISC 9.9 +12.7% 9� 3

16161616 WAF/ISCWAF/ISCWAF/ISCWAF/ISC 12.4 -10.8% 9� 7

17171717 CONT/MEDCONT/MEDCONT/MEDCONT/MED 11.0 -3.0% 9� 2

18181818 MIDDLE EAST/CONTMIDDLE EAST/CONTMIDDLE EAST/CONTMIDDLE EAST/CONT 8.3 +25.1% 9� 5

19191919 NAFTA/ANZNAFTA/ANZNAFTA/ANZNAFTA/ANZ 11.4 -15.4% 9� 7

20202020 NEA/ANZNEA/ANZNEA/ANZNEA/ANZ 11.1 -13.9% 9� 6

RANK RANK RANK RANK


100.2

64.9

33.2

25.4

24.2

18.4

15.5

15.4

13.5

13.5

13.3

12.6

11.8

11.3

11.2

11.0

10.7

10.4

9.7


TABLE TABLE TABLE TABLE 2222: : : : TOP 20 TRADE ROUTES BY TON.MILE


TOP TRADE ROUTES SLOW DOWN

INTRA-NORTH EAST ASIA

China’s slowdown is clearly felt in the liquid chemical raw material trades especially from its

closest supply countries in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, all of which recorded negative

growth in many years. Together, they constitute more than 70% of the Intra-North-east Asian

trade. Carriers who ply this trade suffered from reduced overall volume. However, as supply

of ships moderated during 2018, and this contributed to a general overall rising freight trend

that started since 2017.

CHART CHART CHART CHART 2222: : : : INTRA.NEA TRADE ROUTE – TOP 5 COUNTRY PAIRS

�8%

YoY Change

�2%

�9%

+28%

�17%

+6%

0MMT 6MMT 12MMT

S.KOREA/CHINA

TAIWAN/CHINA

JAPAN/CHINA

S.KOREA/TAIWAN

JAPAN/S.KOREA

OTHERS

2016

2017

2018E

73%PERCENT

SHARE OF

TOP 3 TRADE

ROUTES,

DOWN FROM

75% IN 2017



INTRA-EUROPEAN CONTINENT

MIDDLE-EAST/NORTH-EAST ASIA

Clearly, China continues to dominate

here, taking a lion’s share of over 70%

of the Middle-East to North-

East Asia trade.

CHARTCHARTCHARTCHART 3333: : : : INTRA.CONT TRADE ROUTE – TOP 5 EXIM COUNTRIES

�2%

�2%

+3%

+1%

+1%

�9%

0MMT 4MMT 8MMT

Netherlands

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Others

2016

2017

2018E

+5%

�2%

�6%

�8%

+5%

+19%

0MMT4MMT8MMT

Netherlands

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

France

Others

NETHERLANDS

BELGIUM

GERMANY

UK

FRANCE

OTHERS

EXPORTSEXPORTSEXPORTSEXPORTSIMPORTSIMPORTSIMPORTSIMPORTS


8% YoY

Change

�10%

73%

1%

2%

�17%

0MMT 4MMT 8MMT

SAUDI ARABIA/CHINA

IRAN/CHINA

KUWAIT/CHINA

OMAN/CHINA

SAUDI ARABIA/JAPAN

OTHERS

2016

2017

2018E

73% PERCENT

SHARE OF

TOP 4 TRADE

ROUTES, UP

FROM 69% IN

2017


CHARTCHARTCHARTCHART 4444: : : : MIDDLE EAST/NEA TRADE ROUTE – TOP 5 COUNTRY PAIRS

Major volumes moved to and fro

Holland, Germany and Belgium

make up bulk of this trade route.


BRIGHT SPOTS IN SMALLER TRADE ROUTES

NORTH-EAST ASIA/INDIA SUB-CONTINENT

INDIA SUB-CONTINENT/NORTH-EAST ASIA

CHART CHART CHART CHART 5555:::: NEA/ISC CHEMICAL CARGOES & COUNTRY PAIRS

CHART CHART CHART CHART 6666:::: ISC/NEA CHEMICAL CARGO CONTRIBUTORS

TOP 4 CARGOES

66%

OTHERS

34%

SULPHURIC ACID FROM JAPAN @ 16% JAPAN @ 16% JAPAN @ 16% JAPAN @ 16%

SULPHURIC ACID FROM S.KOREA @ 13% S.KOREA @ 13% S.KOREA @ 13% S.KOREA @ 13%

ACETIC ACID FROM CHINA @ 10% CHINA @ 10% CHINA @ 10% CHINA @ 10%

PARAXYLENE FROM JAPAN @ 9% JAPAN @ 9% JAPAN @ 9% JAPAN @ 9%

CSS FROM JAPAN @ 7% JAPAN @ 7% JAPAN @ 7% JAPAN @ 7%

+ 30%2018 VOLUME @ 3.17MMT


0.5 MMT

1.4 MMT

2.5 MMT

2016 2017 2018E

Paraxylene

Ethanol

Benzene

MEG

OrthoxyleneOTHERS

+ 75%


This trade route grew substantially by

30% YoY to 3.17MMT in 2018.

Heading mainly to India, the key

cargoes are Sulphuric Acid,

Paraxylene and Caustic Soda Solution

from the respective countries.

India’s huge surge in key chemicals

production and export, especially for

Paraxylene, has created favourable

back-haul opportunities for carriers in

this trade route. The trade gap

between the front and back haul trade

has since narrowed considerably.


NORTH-EAST ASIA/SOUTH AMERICA

This trade route enjoyed a whopping 85% YoY growth in volume over 2018. This is mainly

contributed by Sulphuric Acid from the three major export countries, i.e. Japan, South Korea

and China to Chile, which make up the bulk of the increase.

CHART CHART CHART CHART 7777:::: NEA/SAM CHEMICAL CARGO & COUNTRY PAIRS

SULPHURIC ACID

85%85%85%85%

OTHERS

15%15%15%15%

TOP SULPHURIC ACID COUNTRY PAIRS:TOP SULPHURIC ACID COUNTRY PAIRS:TOP SULPHURIC ACID COUNTRY PAIRS:TOP SULPHURIC ACID COUNTRY PAIRS:

JAPAN/CHILE474 KT

S.KOREA/CHILE373 KT

CHINA/CHILE266 KT

OTHERS39 KT

41%

32%

23%

3%


+ 85%2018 VOLUME @ 1.36MMT


WORLD’S TOP 10 CHEMICAL CARGOES

Clocking a growth of above 4% YoY in 2018, Methanol and Paraxylene hold on to their top 2

positions. A further expansion of 5% in total trade volume allows Caustic Soda Solution (CSS)

to move up one rank and surpass Sulphuric Acid to take the third largest liquid chemical

moved around the world. Reduction in demand caused Styrene and MTBE, ETBE to drop a

couple of ranks though still stay within the Top 10 cargoes.

RANKRANKRANKRANK CARGOCARGOCARGOCARGO 2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT)2018 VOLUME (MMT) 2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME2017 VOLUME % CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE% CHANGE

1111 METHANOLMETHANOLMETHANOLMETHANOL 29.8 +4.1% 9� 0

2222 PARAXYLENEPARAXYLENEPARAXYLENEPARAXYLENE 20.4 +4.8% 9� 0

3333 CSSCSSCSSCSS 16.9 +5.5% 9� 1

4444 SULPHURIC ACIDSULPHURIC ACIDSULPHURIC ACIDSULPHURIC ACID 17.6 -1.9% 9� 1

5555 MEGMEGMEGMEG 15.1 +0.0% 9� 0

6666 ETHANOLETHANOLETHANOLETHANOL 10.1 +5.4% 9� 3

7777 BENZENEBENZENEBENZENEBENZENE 9.8 -4.9% 9� 0

8888 STYRENESTYRENESTYRENESTYRENE 10.3 -11.6% 9� 2

9999 MTBE, ETBE, ETC.MTBE, ETBE, ETC.MTBE, ETBE, ETC.MTBE, ETBE, ETC. 8.1 -9.6% 9� 1

10101010 PHOSPHORIC ACIDPHOSPHORIC ACIDPHOSPHORIC ACIDPHOSPHORIC ACID 6.5 -4.6% 9� 0

RANK RANK RANK RANK


31.0

21.4

17.8

17.3

15.1

10.7

9.3

9.1

7.3


TABLE 3TABLE 3TABLE 3TABLE 3: : : : TOP 10 CHEMICAL CARGO RANKINGS


EXPLANATORY NOTES

DEFINITIONS OF KEY REGIONS:

Europe-Continent (CONT) includes: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, United

Kingdom

Indian Sub-Continent (ISC) includes: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Middle-East (ME) includes: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Yemen

NAFTA includes: Canada, Mexico, USA

North-East Asia (NEA) includes: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea North, Korea South, Macau, Taiwan

South-America (SAM) includes: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands, French

Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela

South-East Asia (SEA) includes: Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,

Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

TON-MILE CALCULATION: The ton-mile for each trade route is calculated using each of its country-

to country trade volumes multiply by the representative port-to-port distance. For example: Middle-

East to North-East Asia uses Al-Jubail to Shanghai distance (in Nautical Miles) multiply by the aggregate

volume (in Metric Tons) of all the country pairs in the trade route.

We have endeavoured to meticulously research and process the data, analytics and information contained in

this report, paper, study, communication or document. In the process and in part, we may have drawn upon data

and information collected by others. Certain data may no longer be correct or valid, especially changes due to

passage of time or as a result of change in legislature. We therefore cannot accept responsibility for

guaranteeing that all information herein is accurate, complete and up-to-date. Certain statements in this

document contain words or phrases that are forward-looking statements. All forward looking statements are

subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those

contemplated by the relevant forward looking statement. The recipient of this document remains solely

responsible for making any determination or decision to enter into any transaction based on the information

contained in this document. By accepting this document, the recipient agrees to be bound by the aforesaid

conditions. Please obtain our permission before you copy, disseminate or distribute the document in whole or

in part. If you have data or information that may update or contribute to the accuracy of the report, or wish to

engage our chemical shipping market analytical services, please send to [email protected]. Thank you.

world's top chemical tanker trade routes 2019 · paraxylene and caustic soda solution from the...

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