world preview 2018 embracing the patent cliff -...

World Preview 2018

Embracing the Patent Cliff

Welcome to the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018

The fifth edition of EvaluatePharma’s World Preview brings together many of our analyses to provide a top level insight, from the world’s financial markets, into the expected performance of the industry between now and 2018. Based on EvaluatePharma’s coverage of the world’s leading 3,500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies, the World Preview highlights trends in prescription drug sales, patent risk, R&D spend, global brand sales and market performance by therapy area. Also included in the report is a brief review of 2011 performance. Additional copies are available at: www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.

About EvaluatePharma

Since 1996 EvaluatePharma has been providing senior decision makers within the pharmaceutical industry with an essential service that models the sector from the viewpoint of the world’s financial markets.

EvaluatePharma’s forward looking view of the market is hugely influential as it displays the consensus of expectations, which influence company stock market valuations. The forecasts of equity analysts reveal their perspectives on individual company performance, industry trends and the macro economic environment.

EvaluatePharma has captured the consensus forecasts of equity analysts and seamlessly integrated them with the historic results, as reported by companies. From this comprehensive view of the industry, its past and expected future performance emerges and can be analysed using EvaluatePharma. Analyses range from total market trends and therapeutic overviews to individual company performance and product progress.

Whatever your view on the future of the industry, EvaluatePharma is the essential guide to value in the pharma and biotech sector.

To find out more about this report and EvaluatePharma services contact us:

� North America Debbie Paul Tel: 1-617-573-9453 Email: [email protected]

� Rest of the World Will Hau Tel: +44 (0)20 7377 0800 Email: [email protected]

� Asia Pacific Hiroshi Yamazaki Tel: +81 (0)80 1164 4754 Email: [email protected]

� General inquiries about this report Christine Lindgren Tel: 1-617-573-9458 Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer

All intellectual property rights in this report remain that of EvaluatePharma and/or its respective third party licensors. Whilst all reason-able steps have been taken to ensure that the data presented are accurate, EvaluatePharma Ltd cannot accept responsibility for errors or omissions. Neither does EvaluatePharma Ltd warrant the accuracy, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the data. Nothing in the reports shall constitute investment, financial or legal advice and the contents of the reports are provided for information purposes only. The data is not intended to amount to advice and should not be used as a determining factor in any investment decision. This report may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published, without the prior written consent of EvaluatePharma Ltd. Copyright © 2012 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved.

June 2012

2Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

ast year’s edition of the World Preview highlighted that prescription drug sales were forecast to increase by 4% per year between 2010 and 2016. This was based on a consensus of forecasts from leading equity analysts. In this edition, we can report forecast Industry growth at 3.1% per year between 2011 and 2018. The reduction in forecast growth is mainly due to the decline in the euro and the translated value of sales into US dollars.

In this year’s World Preview we have added, for the first time, a geographic analysis looking at the performance of the US, Europe and Japan pharmaceutical markets in 2011 (pages 8-11). The analysis reveals major market growth flat-lining in 2011, with little or no growth in the US (+0.8%), a decline in Europe of 2.8% and a modest 3.0% growth in Japan.

What is the patent cliff?

An individual company’s patent cliff is usually the result of a wave of successful products reaching the end of their patented life. It is worth noting that the patent cliff of 2012 is caused by products that were discovered in the late 1980s1. A company approaching a patent cliff, 3-5 years prior to patent expiry of one or more blockbusters, usually suffers a stalling share price, due to a natural plateau in the net present value (NPV) of the products contributing the most to the value of the company and changing investor expectation about future growth potential.

The biggest patent cliff the pharmaceutical industry has ever seen is currently hitting hard, with $33bn of sales forecast to be lost in 2012 (page 7). This has led some companies on the edge of their own patent cliff to invest heavily in acquisitions, licensing and R&D in an attempt to replace the revenues and earnings due to be lost.

Is managements’ reaction to the patent cliff the real issue?

The patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem: more the reactions of management to it. For a company facing a patent cliff, a declining share price could even be seen as a sign of a successfully run company – if excess cash is being returned to shareholders via dividends. If a drug company were simply to collect the cash flows and put the money in the bank the share price would remain stable, a model adopted by PDL Biopharma (page 35). But because most managers do not follow this business model, they start spending the surplus cash, thereby creating a riskier company, with the assumption that revenues and earnings can be smoothed.

Filling the pipeline gap or poor investment choices?

The Industry has spent $1.1 trillion over the last 10 years in R&D (page 15). With hindsight this appears to be an inefficient use of this surplus cash. It is often said there is an R&D productivity issue, but is it just poor portfolio strategy and investment choices? Is too much money being spent chasing too few quality R&D projects?

L

A company approaching a patent cliff, 3-5 years prior to patent expiry of one or more blockbusters, usually suffers a stalling share price, due to a natural plateau in the net present value (NPV) of the products contributing the most to the value of the company and changing investor expectation about future growth potential.

3

EvaluatePharma Foreword

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

We may question whether certain companies should even continue with new product R&D activities given their track record. AstraZeneca, for example, with a string of high profile R&D disappointments in recent years, is so poorly rated by the stock market that the current market capitalization of $50bn is 30% lower than the company’s aggregate value of its entire portfolio of products at $72bn (as valued by EvaluatePharma’s NPV Analyzer).

Additionally billions are spent by the Industry in the potentially aggressive transfer of risky, late-stage in-process R&D assets in seemingly high-priced and speculative in-licensing deals and company acquisitions. An example is Gilead’s $11bn acquisition of Pharmasset in early 2012 for access to the Hepatitis C treatment GS-7977. This product would ultimately have been pursued regardless of whether Gilead owned it.

The decision to pursue these courses of action stems from a combination of:

1) over confidence after bringing a blockbuster product to market that the same success can be repeated;

2) the need to grow share price; and,

3) the availability of surplus cash flows from ageing blockbusters.

Or is the R&D value just hidden in long term investments?

In an example of how quickly a situation can be turned around, the best performing Major’s share price in 2011 was Bristol-Myers Squibb (+33%), which had just been through its own patent cliff. The successes of Eliquis (current NPV: $7bn), which was acquired as a phase I asset via its $7.8bn cash acquisition of DuPont Pharmaceuticals in 2001, and Yervoy (current NPV: $6.3bn), acquired initially via an in-licensing deal with Medarex in 20042, show how long the investment horizon can be and how quickly shareholder value can recover.

Is the patent cliff a good event?

The patent cliff is generally portrayed as a bad event for the Industry, but it may turn out to be a good event, with companies feeling liberated from the mega blockbuster3 curse of replacing aging cash flow streams.

The Industry though will continue to be plagued by poor R&D productivity and shareholder return until the management of the companies holding the new wave of blockbusters are incentivised around total shareholder return and efficient company risk therefore viewing these products for what they are – cash cows – prizes in the lottery that is drug development.

Anthony Raeside Head of Research

This report compiled by: Ian Strickland Senior Analyst

4

In an example of how quickly a situation can be turned around, the best performing Major’s share price in 2011 was Bristol-Myers Squibb (+33%), which had just been through its own patent cliff.

1: Patents filed: Diovan (1991), Plavix (1988), Seroquel (1987) and Lipitor (1989).

2: Bristol-Myers Squibb later acquired Medarex in 2009 for $2.4bn.

3: Products with peak sales >$2bn in the US.

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

EvaluatePharma World Preview 2018 – Analysis Highlights

� Worldwide prescription drug sales forecast to total $885bn in 2018

(CAGR 2011 to 2018: +3.1%)

� Prescription drug sales forecast falls $26bn to $827bn in 2016

vs. forecasts in May 2011

� In dollar terms, worldwide prescription drug sales up 5.9% in 2011

� Key local market prescription sales growth flat in 2011 (USA, Europe & Japan);

Japan best performing market (+3% growth)

� Prescription drug sales forecast to decline by 0.9% in 2012 due to large number

of patent expiries and decline in value of euro

� Over $290bn of sales at risk from patent expirations in 2012-18

� Januvia/Janumet world’s largest selling product in 2018

� Pfizer remains top company by Rx sales in 2011; Novartis leading company in 2018

� Global pharmaceutical R&D spend forecast to grow by 1.5% per year to $149bn in 2018

� Gilead’s hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977, most valuable R&D product

� Anti-coagulants set to record highest growth of major therapy categories to 2018

� Teva continues to lead generic drug market in 2011 but Novartis is catching up

� Bristol-Myers Squibb share price rises 33% in 2011 following pipeline

successes for Eliquis and Yervoy

5

Over $290bn of sales at risk from patent expirations in 2012-18

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Table of Contents

7 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2004-18)

8 Regional Sales: USA, Europe & Japan (2009-11) New Analysis

9 Regional Sales: USA (2009-11) New Analysis

10 Regional Sales: Europe (2009-11) New Analysis

11 Regional Sales: Japan (2009-11) New Analysiss

12 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2018: Top 20 Companies

13 Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2004-18)

14 Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)

15 Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2004-2018)

16 Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2018: Top 20 Companies

17 FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1998 to 2011

18 Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2018

19 Oncology Market to 2018

20 Anti-Diabetic Market to 2018

21 Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2018

22 Vaccine Market to 2018

23 Anti-Virals Market to 2018

24 2018: Top 50 Selling Products in the World

25 2018: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA

26 Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2011

27 Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2011

28 Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2011

29 M&A Analysis: 2007 to 2011

30 Venture Financing Analysis: 2007 to 2011

31 Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

32 Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

33 Enterprise Value Analysis: 2010 to 2011

34 Net Income in 2011: Top 20 Companies

35 Net Income Margin in 2011: Top 20 Companies

36 2011: Top 50 Selling Products in the World

37 2011: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA

38 About EvaluatePharma

6Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2004-18)

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2004-18)Swine Flu Contribution** 1.0 7.9 5.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

WW Prescription Sales ($bn)Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Prescription (Rx) 455 493 540 594 643 657 676 716 709 732 760 793 827 857 885 Growth per Year +11.1% +8.5% +9.4% +10.2% +8.2% +2.1% +2.8% +5.9% -0.9% +3.3% +3.7% +4.4% +4.3% +3.6% +3.2% Change vs. May 2011 ($bn)* +5 -21 -24 -31 -27 -26 n/a n/a Generics 27 32 40 46 53 52 59 65 70 74 78 83 88 92 96 Generics as % of Rx 5.9% 6.5% 7.4% 7.8% 8.2% 7.9% 8.8% 9.1% 9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 10.5% 10.6% 10.7% 10.9% Rx excl. Generics 428 461 499 548 591 605 616 651 639 659 681 710 739 765 788 Growth per Year +11.0% +7.8% +8.2% +9.8% +7.7% +2.4% +1.9% +5.6% -1.8% +3.0% +3.4% +4.2% +4.1% +3.4% +3.1%

( noitpircserP)2102 YAM 92( ®amrahPetaulavE :ecruoS Rx) incl. Generics CAGR 11-18 +3.1%

Worldwide Total Prescription Drug Sales 2004-18 Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

+11%

+8%+9%

+10%

+4% +4%+4% +3%

+8%

+5.9%

+2.8%+2.1%

-0.9%

+3.3% +3.7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

WW

Pre

scrip

tion

Sale

s ($

bn)

-2.0%

+0.0%

+2.0%

+4.0%

+6.0%

+8.0%

+10.0%

+12.0%

WW

Sal

es

Gro

wth

%

GenericsRx excl. GenericsGrowth per Year

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales Forecast to Grow by 3.1% (CAGR) to $885bn by 2018EvaluatePharma® finds that the market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus forecast for the leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, will grow by 3.1% per year (CAGR) between 2011 and 2018 to $885bn. In last year's edition of the World Preview the 2016 figure* was forecast to be $853bn. This has been now been revised downwards by $26bn to $827bn. This can largely be attributed to the decline in the value of the euro and the translated value of sales in dollars. Indeed this currency issue is implicated in the unprecedented negative growth forecast for 2012, at -0.9%, in dollar terms. However, part of this decline can also be attributed to the large number of blockbuster patent expiries in 2012 resulting in $33bn of sales being lost in 2012. In dollar terms, Rx sales in 2011 experienced a 5.9% growth vs. 2010, although this is largely due to the weakness of the dollar in 2011 (see pages 8-11 for further analysis).

Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies.Sales to 2011 based on company reported sales data. Sales forecasts to 2018 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company product sales and segmental sales.*EvaluatePharma® did not publish sales data for 2017 and 2018 in May 2011. **Swine Flu products include vaccines and influenza treatments Tamiflu and Relenza

Worldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration 2004-18

1319 21 21

2632

41

67

29

40

56

31 28

39

12 10 13

2214 10 12

19

33

21 18 19 1721 1916

3% 3% 4% 3% 3%4%

5%4%

6%

4%

5%

3%4%

7%

9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

WW

Sal

es ($

bn)

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

% A

t Ris

kTotal Sales at RiskExpected Sales Lost% of Rx Market At Risk

Patent Analysis: 'Total Sales at Risk' represents the worldwide product sales in the year prior to patent expiry but allocated to the year of expiry. E.g. Plavix had sales of $7.1bn in 2011, this is shown above as 'At Risk' in 2012.

+3.1% CAGR 2011-18

Expected Key Patent Expiries in 2012:Plavix (BMS), Seroquel (AZN), Diovan (NVS), Singulair (MRK), Actos (TAK), Lexapro (FRX).

455493

540594

643 657 676716 709 732

793760827 857 885

Estimated LC Growth USA, EU & Japan:2010: +0.6%; 2011: flat

7

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2004-18)

7Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Regional Prescription Drug Sales (2009/11): Observed Top 20 Companies in each Market

Country 2009 2010 2011 2009/10 2010/11 2009/10 2010/11USA 210.9 209.2 211.0 -0.8% +0.8% -0.8% +0.8%Europe n/a 135.3 138.0 -2.8% +2.0% +2.1% -2.8%Japan 63.0 68.6 77.7 +8.8% +13.3% +1.9% +3.0%Subtotal - Top 20 Companies n/a 413.1 426.6 +3.3% +0.6% +0.0%Unallocated n/a 262.6 289.1Total Worldwide Rx Sales 657.0 675.6 715.7 +2.8% +5.9%Swine Flu Contribution* 7.9 5.4 1.5Total Excluding Swine Flu 649.1 670.2 714.3 +3.2% +6.6%

Reported Government Data for Prescription Drug Sales in USA, EU (Top 5 Countries) & Japan

Country 2009 2010 2011 2009/10 2010/11 2009/10 2010/11USA 249.9 259.1 n/a +3.7% n/a +3.7% n/aEurope (Top 5) 140.7 136.8 n/a -2.7% n/a +1.7% n/aJapan 63.6 71.2 n/a +8.8% +13.3% +3.6% +8.1%Sub-Total (USA+EU 5+Japan) 454.2 467.0 n/a +2.8% n/a +3.1% n/aOther 202.8 208.6Total Worldwide Rx Sales 657.0 675.6 715.7 +2.8% +5.9%

Currency Sensitivity Analysis

21/110211/010201/90022102110201029002ycnerruC23.193.133.193.1)$ SU = €1( oruE -4.8% +4.9% -5.3%

Japan (100 ¥ = US $) 1.07 1.14 1.26 1.25 +6.7% +9.9% -0.1%China (1 RMB = US $) 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 +0.9% +4.7% +2.4%

Growth

Gov. Purchases 2009/2010 onlyGrowth LC

Regional Sales: USA, Europe & Japan (2009-11) New Analysis

(local currency)(US$)Sales ($bn)

Sales ($bn) Growth (US$)

Source: Japan 2011 local currency growth based on H1 Fiscal 2012 (APR 1 2011 – SEP 30 2011) vs. H1 Fiscal 2011 (APR 1 2010 – SEP 30 2010). Source: Japan (Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare).

Key Market Prescription Sales Growth Flat in 2011 (USA, Europe & Japan); Japan Best Performing MarketEvaluatePharma®, in its first geographic analysis to be included in the World Preview, found that the developed markets of USA, Europe and Japan collectively failed to grow in 2011. Japan was the best performing major market in 2011, with local sales in yen growing by 3%, whilst Japan sales translated into US dollars surged 13%, due to a strengthening yen.Analysis is based on observing the reported geographic sales for USA, Europe & Japan for the top 20 companies in each market in 2011. In addition, available reported government data on pharmaceutical purchases of drugs for 2010/11 was reviewed.

2010/11 Regional Local Currency Rx Sales Growth: Top 20 Companies WW

-0.8%

+2.1% +1.9%+0.8%

-2.8%

+3.0%

+0.6%+0%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

seinapmoC 02 poT - latotbuSnapaJ eporuEASU

Rx

Sale

s G

row

th 2009/10 2010/11

Europe Top 5: Germany, France, UK, Italy & Spain.

2010/11 Regional Local Currency Growth based on Government Data

+3.7%

+1.7%

+3.6%+3.1%

+8.1%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

)napaJ+5 UE+ASU( latoT-buSnapaJ)5 poT( eporuEASU

Rx

Sale

s G

row

th

2009/10 2010/11

8

Regional Sales: USA, Europe & Japan (2009-11)

8Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

NEW ANALySIS

US Prescription Drug Sales (2009/11): Top 20 Companies

Company 2009 2010 2011 2009/10 2010/111 Pfizer 28.8 26.7 23.8 -7.1% -10.9%2 Merck & Co 17.6 16.7 17.1 -4.6% +2.2%3 Novartis 13.4 15.2 15.3 +12.9% +0.9%4 Sanofi 15.5 14.3 14.7 -7.3% +2.5%5 Bristol-Myers Squibb 11.9 12.6 13.8 +6.3% +9.8%6 Roche 13.7 13.5 13.8 -1.0% +2.1%7 AstraZeneca 14.3 13.4 13.1 -6.3% -2.1%8 Johnson & Johnson 13.0 12.5 12.4 -4.0% -1.1%9 Eli Lilly 11.1 11.6 11.5 +4.9% -0.7%

10 Amgen 10.9 11.0 11.5 +0.9% +4.2%11 GlaxoSmithKline 13.4 11.8 11.3 -11.9% -4.6%12 Abbott Laboratories 9.2 8.9 9.5 -3.6% +6.3%13 Teva 9.9 11.5 10.5 +15.8% -8.4%14 Boehringer Ingelheim 7.3 6.0 6.7 -18.4% +12.1%15 Novo Nordisk 3.4 4.2 5.0 +22.9% +18.2%16 Takeda 5.4 5.4 4.9 -0.1% -8.8%17 Gilead Sciences 3.6 4.2 4.6 +17.4% +9.1%18 Forest Laboratories 3.8 4.1 4.3 +7.7% +3.3%19 Watson Pharmaceuticals 2.0 2.6 3.7 +27.0% +42.5%20 Mylan 2.6 2.8 3.4 +7.0% +22.2%

Total 210.9 209.2 211.0 -0.8% +0.8%Swine Flu Contribution* 2.6 0.9 0.2 -67.1% -78.4%

Total Excluding Swine Flu 208.3 208.4 210.8 +0.0% +1.2%

Country Level Expenditures on Pharmaceuticals

01/9002110201029002yrtnuoCUSA1 %7.3+1.9529.942

Regional Sales: USA (2009-11) New Analysis

US Rx Sales ($bn) Growth (US$)

Sales ($bn) Growth (US$)

Note: Pro-forma adjusted for M&A1: Source: USA (CMS Household Survey)

USA Prescription Market Sales Up 0.8%; Pfizer Number 1 in USAEvaluatePharma® found that US prescription drug market sales grew at +0.8% between 2010 and 2011, based on reported prescription drug sales for the top 20 companies. Growth excluding swine flu related products was +1.2%. Pfizer is number 1 in terms of USA prescription drug sales, with $23.8bn in sales, down 10.9% on 2010. Analysis is based on observing the reported geographic sales for USA for the top 20 companies in 2011. In addition, available reported government data on pharmaceutical purchases of drugs for 2010/11 was reviewed.

USA Prescription Drug Sales in 2011: Top 10 Companies Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

23.8

17.115.3 14.7 13.8 13.8 13.1 12.4 11.5 11.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pfiz

er

Mer

ck &

Co

Nov

artis

Sano

fi

Bris

tol-M

yers

Squi

bb Roc

he

Astra

Zene

ca

John

son

&Jo

hnso

n

Eli L

illy

Amge

n

USA

Pre

scrip

tion

Sale

s ($

bn)

9

Regional Sales: USA (2009-11)

9Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

NEW ANALySIS

EU Prescription Drug Sales (2009/11): Top 20 Companies

Europe Prescription Drug Sales (2009/11): Top 20 Companies

Company 2009 2010 2011 2009/10 2010/11 2009 2010 2011 2009/10 2010/111 Novartis* 15.5 16.3 17.6 +4.9% +8.3% 11.1 12.3 12.7 +10.3% +3.3%2 Sanofi 18.1 16.7 17.0 -7.9% +1.5% 13.0 12.6 12.2 -3.3% -3.2%3 Pfizer n/a 14.9 14.7 -0.8% n/a 11.2 10.6 -5.4%4 Merck & Co n/a 10.5 10.6 +1.6% n/a 7.9 7.6 -3.2%5 AstraZeneca 10.4 10.3 9.7 -0.3% -5.7% 7.4 7.8 7.0 +4.7% -10.1%6 Roche 10.0 9.1 9.3 -8.9% +2.1% 7.2 6.9 6.7 -4.3% -2.7%7 GlaxoSmithKline 11.1 10.1 9.2 -8.8% -8.6% 8.0 7.6 6.6 -4.1% -12.9%8 Teva 6.0 5.8 6.3 -3.2% +9.3% 4.3 4.4 4.5 +1.7% +4.2%9 Boehringer Ingelheim 5.5 5.4 5.6 -2.2% +3.6% 4.0 4.1 4.0 +2.8% -1.3%

10 Bayer 5.7 5.0 5.1 -12.3% +1.4% 4.1 3.8 3.7 -7.8% -3.4%11 Eli Lilly 5.0 4.8 5.0 -3.1% +3.5% 3.6 3.6 3.6 +1.8% -1.3%12 Menarini 3.9 4.0 4.2 +3.2% +4.0% 2.8 3.0 3.0 +8.4% -0.9%13 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.6 3.4 3.7 -4.9% +6.4% 2.6 2.6 2.6 -0.1% +1.4%14 Abbott Laboratories** 3.1 3.3 3.6 +5.8% +10.3% 2.2 2.5 2.6 +11.2% +5.1%15 Novo Nordisk 3.3 3.3 3.6 +1.3% +7.7% 2.4 2.5 2.6 +6.4% +2.6%16 Amgen 3.2 3.4 3.6 +5.9% +4.8% 2.3 2.6 2.6 +11.3% -0.1%17 Merck KGaA 3.6 3.5 3.5 -2.0% +1.4% 2.6 2.6 2.5 +3.0% -3.3%18 Gilead Sciences 3.0 3.2 3.1 +6.4% -1.5% 2.1 2.4 2.2 +11.8% -6.1%19 Astellas Pharma 2.5 2.2 2.4 -12.7% +9.4% 1.8 1.7 1.7 -8.3% +4.3%

Johnson & Johnson ---a/na/na/nTotal* 135.3 138.0 -2.8% +2.0% 102.0 99.1 +2.1% -2.8%

Currency Impact ($bn) at 2009 rates: 0 -6.9 -0.2

Government Expenditures on Pharmaceuticals

1/900211020102900211/010201/9002110201029002yrtnuoC 0 2010/11Germany (€) 45.0 44.2 -1.9% 32.3 33.3 +3.1%France (€) 35.4 34.1 -3.7% 25.4 25.7 +1.2%Italy (€) 23.6 22.5 -4.8% 16.9 16.9 +0.0%UK (£) 19.2 19.9 +3.4% 12.3 12.9 +4.8%Spain (€) 17.4 16.2 15.5 -7.1% -4.3% 12.5 12.2 11.1 -2.4% -8.8%Top 5 EU Countries 140.7 136.8 -2.7% +1.7%

Currency Impact ($bn) at 2009 rates: 0 -6.2

21/110211/010201/90022102110201029002etaR ycnerruC1€ = US $ 1.394 1.327 1.392 1.318 -5% +5% -5%1£ = US $ 1.566 1.546 1.604 1.579 -1% +4% -2%

Growth (US$) Growth (LC)

Regional Sales: Europe (2009-11) New Analysis

EU Rx Sales ($bn) Growth (US$) EU Rx Sales (€bn) Growth (€)

Gov Purchases (€; £bn)Gov.t Purchases ($bn)

Note: 2009/10 Growth based on a weighting of Top 20 excluding J&J, Merck & Co., Pfizer.*Alcon EU sales not available (consolidated by Novartis from 25 AUG 2010).** Abbott figures based on European sales for AbbVie, Abbott's intended branded pharmaceutical spin-out.Government Sources: Germany (Die Gesundheitsberichterstattung des Bundes), France (Afssaps), Italy (www.farmindustria.it), UK [England & Wales] (NHS Information Centre), Spain (Ministry of Health).

European Sales Decline 3.0% in Local Currencies; Novartis Number 1 in EuropeEvaluatePharma® found that European prescription drug sales fell 2.8% in local currency between 2010 and 2011, based on reported prescription drug sales for the top 20 companies. In a review of government data only Spain had reported 2011 sales, with purchases slumping 4% in 2011, versus a 7% decline in 2010. Dollar reported sales in 2012 are set to slump due to a mix of the weak euro and government cost containment, due to fiscal austerity. Analysis is based on observing the reported geographic sales for the top 20 companies in Europe in 2011. In addition, available reported government data on pharmaceutical purchases of drugs for 2010/11 was reviewed.

European Prescription Drug Sales in 2011: Top 10 CompaniesSource: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

17.6 17.014.7

10.6 9.7 9.3 9.26.3 5.6 5.1

02468

101214161820

Nov

artis

*

Sano

fi

Pfiz

er

Mer

ck &

Co

Astra

Zene

ca

Roc

he

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Teva

Boeh

ringe

rIn

gelh

eim

Baye

r

Euro

pean

Pre

scrip

tion

Sale

s ($

bn) Analysis does not include J&J as

Europe sales not disclosed

10

Regional Sales: Europe (2009-11)

10Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

NEW ANALySIS

Japan Prescription Drug Sales (2009/11): Top 20 Companies

Company 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2010 20111 Takeda 5.9 6.8 7.5 +14.3% +10.9% 553 592 598 +7.1% +0.9%2 Astellas Pharma 5.7 6.4 7.1 +11.5% +11.2% 533 557 563 +4.4% +1.2%3 Pfizer 5.0 5.0 5.2 +0.4% +3.3% 468 440 414 -6.0% -6.0%4 Daiichi Sankyo 4.5 4.9 5.2 +7.1% +6.7% 425 426 413 +0.4% -2.9%5 Merck & Co 3.3 3.6 4.7 +12.1% +29.2% 304 319 375 +5.0% +17.5%6 Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma 3.8 4.2 4.5 +10.6% +6.5% 357 370 359 +3.6% -3.2%7 Eisai 3.3 3.9 4.4 +18.2% +15.3% 305 338 354 +10.8% +4.9%8 Roche (Chugai) 4.4 4.2 4.3 -5.6% +3.9% 411 364 344 -11.6% -5.5%9 Otsuka Holdings 3.4 3.7 4.1 +11.1% +10.6% 315 328 329 +4.0% +0.6%

10 Sanofi 2.6 3.0 4.0 +14.9% +35.1% 240 258 318 +7.6% +22.8%11 Novartis 3.1 3.3 3.9 +6.5% +18.2% 290 289 311 -0.3% +7.5%12 GlaxoSmithKline 2.6 3.0 3.3 +17.3% +10.2% 241 265 266 +9.9% +0.2%13 AstraZeneca 2.3 2.6 3.1 +11.8% +17.1% 219 229 244 +4.7% +6.5%14 Kyowa Hakko Kirin 2.2 2.5 2.9 +10.3% +18.1% 208 215 231 +3.4% +7.4%15 Bayer 2.2 2.2 2.6 -1.5% +20.0% 204 188 205 -7.8% +9.1%16 Boehringer Ingelheim 2.2 2.2 2.5 +0.9% +13.3% 208 197 203 -5.5% +3.0%17 Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma 2.2 2.1 2.3 -2.6% +6.6% 206 187 182 -8.8% -3.1%18 Shionogi 1.6 1.9 2.1 +13.0% +12.1% 154 163 166 +5.9% +1.9%19 Eli Lilly 1.2 1.6 2.1 +31.9% +31.3% 111 137 164 +23.5% +19.5%20 Ono Pharmaceutical 1.5 1.6 1.8 +7.9% +16.8% 137 138 147 +1.0% +6.2%

Total 63.0 68.6 77.7 +8.8% +13.3% 5,890 6,002 6,185 +1.9% +3.0%Currency Impact ($bn) at 2009 rates: -0.8 +3.5 +10.7

Government Purchases

21/1111/0111020102900221/1111/01110201029002yrtnuoCJapan 63.6 71.2 +11.9% 5,870 6,082 +3.6% +8%

Currency Rate (1 Apr - 31 Mar) 2009 2010 2011 2012 09/10 10/11 11/121 ¥ = $ 0.0108 0.0117 0.0127 0.0125 +8% +8% -1%1 $ = ¥ 92.3 85.5 78.9 79.9

htworG % lacoL)$SU( htworG

Regional Sales: Japan (2009-11) New Analysis

Japan Rx Sales ($bn) Growth (US$) Japan Rx Sales (¥bn) Growth (¥)

)nb¥( sesahcruP voG)nb$( sesahcruP voG

Note: 2009/10 Growth reduced due to one-off Tamiflu sales in Japan in 2009. Japan 2011 local currency growth based on H1 Fiscal 2012 (APR 1 2011 – SEP 30 2011). Source: Japan (Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare).

Japanese Market Expands 3% in 2011; Takeda Number 1 in JapanEvaluatePharma® found that the Japanese prescription drug sales in yen grew at 3% in 2011, whilst in US dollars they grew 13%. This difference is due to the strong appreciation of the yen. The currency impact added $10.7bn to 2011 sales, versus $3.5bn in 2010, when compared to the 2009 average dollar/ yen rate of 92. Analysis is based on observing the reported geographic sales for the top 20 companies in Japan in 2011. In addition, available reported government data on pharmaceutical purchases of drugs for 2010/11 was reviewed.

Japan Prescription Drug Sales in 2011: Top 10 Companies Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

7.57.1

5.2 5.24.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Take

da

Aste

llas

Phar

ma

Pfiz

er

Dai

ichi

Sank

yo

Mer

ck &

Co

Mits

ubis

hiTa

nabe

Phar

ma

Eisa

i

Roc

he(C

huga

i)

Ots

uka

Hol

ding

s

Sano

fi

Japa

n Pr

escr

iptio

n Sa

les

($bn

)

11

Regional Sales: Japan (2009-11)

11Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

NEW ANALySIS

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2018: Top 20 Companies

WW Prescription Drug Sales (2011/18): Top 20 Companies & Total Market

RankCompany 2011 2018 % CAGR 11-18 2011 2018 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Novartis 46.7 51.3 +1% 6.5% 5.8% -0.7% +12 Pfizer 53.5 48.2 -1% 7.5% 5.5% -2.0% -13 Sanofi 39.3 48.2 +3% 5.5% 5.4% -0.0% +14 GlaxoSmithKline 34.9 44.9 +4% 4.9% 5.1% +0.2% +25 Roche 37.0 43.9 +2% 5.2% 5.0% -0.2% -6 Merck & Co 41.9 40.6 -0% 5.9% 4.6% -1.3% -37 Johnson & Johnson 22.3 27.0 +3% 3.1% 3.1% -0.1% +28 Abbott Laboratories 22.4 23.1 +0% 3.1% 2.6% -0.5% -9 AstraZeneca 32.4 21.9 -5% 4.5% 2.5% -2.0% -2

10 Bristol-Myers Squibb 16.9 21.4 +3% 2.4% 2.4% +0.1% +111 Novo Nordisk 12.4 20.3 +7% 1.7% 2.3% +0.6% +612 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 15.7 19.2 +3% 2.2% 2.2% -0.0% -13 Takeda 14.7 19.0 +4% 2.1% 2.1% +0.1% +114 Bayer 13.4 16.1 +3% 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% +215 Gilead Sciences 8.1 15.1 +9% 1.1% 1.7% +0.6% +716 Amgen 15.3 14.5 -1% 2.1% 1.6% -0.5% -317 Eli Lilly 20.4 13.7 -6% 2.8% 1.6% -1.3% -718 Daiichi Sankyo 10.5 13.2 +3% 1.5% 1.5% +0.0% +119 Astellas Pharma 11.2 12.8 +2% 1.6% 1.4% -0.1% -120 Boehringer Ingelheim 14.1 12.3 -2% 2.0% 1.4% -0.6% -5

Total Top 20 483.1 526.7 +1% 67.5% 59.6% -7.9%Other 232.7 357.8 +6% 32.5% 40.4%Total 715.7 884.5 +3% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

WW Market Share WW Prescription Sales ($bn)

WW Prescription Drug Sales in 2018: Top 10 Companies Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

51.348.2 48.2

44.9 43.940.6

27.023.1 21.9 21.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nov

artis

Pfiz

er

Sano

fi

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Roc

he

Mer

ck &

Co

John

son

&Jo

hnso

n

Abbo

ttLa

bora

torie

s

Astra

Zene

ca

Bris

tol-M

yers

Squi

bb

WW

Pre

scrip

tion

Sale

s ($

bn)

Note: Prescription drug sales include generic drug sales. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible.

Novartis Pulling Away from the Rest of the Field; Rx Sales Forecast to be $51.3bn in 2018In last year's edition of the World Preview, EvaluatePharma® found that in 2016 Novartis, Sanofi and Pfizer were running a close race for the top pharmaceutical company in terms of Rx sales. Now Novartis has emerged as a clear leader with Rx sales forecast to reach $51.3bn in 2018, $3bn ahead of Pfizer and Sanofi. Gilead is set to climb the most positions within the top 20, moving up 7 places to number 15 with Rx sales of $15.1bn in 2018. In addition to the company's strong HIV franchise, Gilead's ascent can be attributed to the impressive forecasts for GS-7977, its recently acquired development stage hepatitis C product. Conversely Eli Lilly is forecast to drop 7 places to 17th in 2018 following patent expirations of Zyprexa and Cymbalta, leading to a 6% decline in Rx sales per year between 2011 and 2018.

+1 -1 +1 +2 (-) -3 +2 (-) -2 +1

Sales ($bn)CAGR 2011-18 (%)

Ranking Chg. 2011-18

+1% -1% +3%

+4%

-5%

0%

+3% 0% +3%

+2%

12

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2018: Top 20 Companies

12Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2004-18)


Technology 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Biotechnology 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% Conventional/ Unclassified 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 77% 77% 77% Total Rx & OTC Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WW Sales ($bn)Technology 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Biotechnology 56 66 79 96 110 118 130 142 153 165 177 189 199 208 215 Conventional 332 348 372 396 419 430 436 454 429 432 437 448 460 469 477 Other Unclassified Sales 92 106 116 131 146 142 145 157 164 175 187 200 213 228 241 Total Rx & OTC Sales 480 520 567 624 675 690 711 754 747 772 801 837 873 904 934Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

WW Prescription Drug Sales from Biotechnology in 2018: Top 10 CompaniesChg. Rank

Company 2011 2018 % CAGR 11-18 2011 2018 (+/-) Chg.1 Roche 25.7 32.6 +3% 18.1% 15.2% -2.9% -2 Novo Nordisk 11.4 19.6 +8% 8.0% 9.1% +1.1% +23 Sanofi 11.5 17.8 +6% 8.1% 8.3% +0.2% -4 Pfizer 10.1 14.3 +5% 7.1% 6.7% -0.4% +15 Amgen 14.4 13.6 -1% 10.1% 6.3% -3.8% -36 GlaxoSmithKline 4.7 12.5 +15% 3.3% 5.8% +2.5% +57 Johnson & Johnson 6.8 8.5 +3% 4.8% 4.0% -0.8% +18 Merck & Co 7.7 8.4 +1% 5.4% 3.9% -1.5% -19 Eli Lilly 5.3 8.3 +7% 3.7% 3.8% +0.2% -

10 Abbott Laboratories 8.1 7.6 -1% 5.7% 3.5% -2.2% -4

WW Sales ($bn) WW Market Share

Percentage of Worldwide Rx & OTC Pharmaceutical Sales from Biotech vs. Conventional Technology Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 20% 21% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23%

88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 77% 77% 77%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tech

nolo

gy %

of R

x &

OTC

Sal

es

Biotechnology Conventional/ Unclassified

Biotech Products Fail to Overtake Small Molecule Sales within Top 100 Drugs by 2018EvaluatePharma® finds that the percentage of sales from biotechnology products (bioengineered vaccines + biologics), within th e world's top 100 drugs, is set to increase from 34% in 2011 to 49% by 2018. In the broader market, sales from biotechnology products are set to capture 23% of the world pharmaceutical market by 2018, versus the current share of 19% in 2011. The total value of biotechnology sales is set to grow 51% between 2011 and 2018 from $142bn to $215bn. Roche remains the top player in this field with the company's biotechnology sales forecast to reach $32.6bn in 2018. Amgen, once biotechnology's leading play er, is forecast to drop 3 places to number 5 between 2011 and 2018 due to a forecast 1% decline in biotechnology sales per year over this period.

Biotech Within Top 100 ProductsBiotech's rapid increase in share within Top 100 products: 2004 (17%), 2011 (34%) & 2018 (49%)

Note: Company drug sales from undisclosed products are presumed to be from conventional (small molecule) technology.

49%

51%

34%66

%

17%

83%

2018 Split:Biotech: n=45 (avg. $2.75bn)Conv.: n=55 (avg. $2.30bn)

Note: Sanofi results for 2011 are not pro-forma for the acquisition of Genzyme acquisition in April 2011. 13


13Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)


WW Product Sales ($m)lC lacigolocamrahP)tnerruC( esahPynapmoCtcudorPknaR ass 2018

1 GS-7977 Gilead Sciences Phase III Hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor 5,359 new entry 17,610

2 BG-12 004,3etaramuFdeliFcedI negoiB 9,0833 RG1273 Roche Filed Anti-HER2 MAb 2,482 new entry 8,838

4 Quad Gilead Sciences Filed NRTI, HIV integrase inhibitor & CYP3A inhibitor 2,793 4,258

5 Bapineuzumab Elan Phase III Anti-beta amyloid MAb - new entry 4,1896 Tofacitinib Pfizer Filed JAK-3 inhibitor 1,715 4,002

7 Trastuzumab-DM1 Roche Phase III Anti-HER2 MAb-DM1 conjugate 1,102 3,757

8 Tresiba 390,1nilusnIdeliFksidroN ovoN 2,981

9 Bexsero Novartis Filed Meningococcal B vaccine 1,060 2,828

10 AMR101 Amarin Filed Omega-3 fatty acid 510 2,758

11 Relovair Theravance Phase III Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist & corticosteroid - 2,724

12 Reolysin Oncolytics Biotech Phase III Oncolytic virus - Ras activated 911 2,660

13 Ryzodeg 100,1nilusnIdeliFksidroN ovoN 2,57214 Alpharadin Bayer Phase III Radiotherapy agent 1,038 new entry 2,552

15 AMR101 Undisclosed Partner Sales Filed Omega-3 fatty acid 2,165 2,477

16 TMC435 Johnson & Johnson Phase III Hepatitis C protease inhibitor 900 new entry 2,477

17 MDV3100 Medivation Phase III Androgen receptor antagonist - new entry 2,459

18 Kyprolis Onyx Pharmaceuticals Filed Proteasome inhibitor 897 new entry 2,289

19 HyperAcute Pancreas NewLink Genetics Phase III Cancer vaccine 702 new entry 2,171

20 Qnexa VIVUS Filed Adrenoreceptor agonist & anti-convulsant 983 new entry 2,140

Top 20 28,112 84,823Other 82,466 207,729Total 110,578 292,551 17%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012) NPV of R&D Pipeline MAY 2011: 249,466

Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by NPV) in May 2011 Which Have Since Been Approved or Suffered SetbacksChange Status Change May 2011 Today's Change vs.

yaM ecniS)1102 yaM( sutatSynapmoCtcudorP11' yaM .sv 2011 NPV ($m) NPV ($m) May-11 (%)Approved Eliquis (apixaban) 638,3devorppAdeliFbbiuqS sreyM-lotsirB 6,966 82%

Eylea (aflibercept) 013,2devorppAdeliFnorenegeR 6,451 179%Jakafi (ruxolitinib) 864,2devorppAIII esahPetycnI 5,630 128%Kalydeco (ivacaftor) 241,2devorppAIII esahPxetreV 5,168 141%Eliquis (apixaban) 295,3devorppAdeliFrezifP 4,759 32%Xalkori (crizotinib) 321,2devorppAIII esahPrezifP 4,118 94%Xarelto (rivaroxaban) 752,2devorppAdeliFnosnhoJ & nosnhoJ 2,968 32%Incivek (telaprevir) 233,4devorppAdeliFnosnhoJ & nosnhoJ 2,520 -42%

Sub-Total 23,060 38,580 67%Setback DR Cysteamine 551,4kcabteSIII esahProtpaR 294 -93%

Varespladib 691,2kcabteSIII esahParehtnA 0 -100%Sub-Total 6,351 294 -95%

Total 29,411 38,874 32%Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

Today's NPV ($m)

Note: Elan to receive royalty payments from J&J on Bapineuzumab.Theravance to receive royalty payments from GSK on Relovair.Medivation to receive royalty payments from Astellas on MDV3100.AMR101 NPVs based on assumption of future out-licensing, currently being developed by Amarin.

Value of Industry Pipeline Increases 17% in Last Year; Gilead's GS-7977 Most Valuable ProductEvaluatePharma®'s NPV Analyzer finds that the value of the Industry's pipeline increased 17% to $293bn, vs. $249bn as calculated in May 2011. By far the most valuable product in the Industry's pipeline is Gilead's GS-7977, a hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, which is currently valued at $17.6bn. This product boasts impressive 2018 forecasts of $5.4bn, which the product will need to achieve in order to justify the $11.2bn Gilead paid for Pharmasset in order to obtain the candidate. 8 of the entries in last year's top 20 have since received approval and have collectively seen their NPVs increase 67% since May 2011.

14


14Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2004-2018)


WW Prescription Sales ($bn)Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pharma R&D Spend 87.9 96.4 108.2 120.0 130.9 127.3 128.3 134.6 134.2 136.1 138.4 140.9 143.8 146.7 149.4Growth per Year +9.6% +12.3% +10.8% +9.1% -2.8% +0.8% +4.9% -0.3% +1.4% +1.7% +1.8% +2.0% +2.0% +1.9%WW Prescription (Rx) Sales 455 493 540 594 643 657 676 716 709 732 760 793 827 857 885R&D as % of WW Rx Sales 19.3% 19.5% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 19.4% 19.0% 18.8% 18.9% 18.6% 18.2% 17.8% 17.4% 17.1% 16.9%

Generics 27 32 40 46 53 52 59 65 70 74 78 83 88 92 96Rx excl. Generics 428 461 499 548 591 605 616 651 639 659 681 710 739 765 788R&D as % of Rx excl. Generics 20.6% 20.9% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2% 21.0% 20.8% 20.7% 21.0% 20.7% 20.3% 19.8% 19.5% 19.2% 19.0%Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012) CAGR 11-18 on Pharma R&D Spend

Cumulative 10 year R&D Spend (2002-11) $1082 bn

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Number of NMEs 38 28 29 26 31 34 26 35 Cost per NME ($bn) 2.3 3.4 3.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.9 3.8 Cost per NME ($bn) (3 year lag)* 3.4 3.1 3.2 4.6 3.7

+1.5%

Worldwide Total Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2004-18Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

8896

108120

131 127 128135 134 136 138 141 144 147 149

+9.6%

+12.3%+10.8%

-2.8%

+0.8%

+4.9%

-0.3%

+1.4% +1.7% +1.8% +2.0% +2.0% +1.9%

+9.1%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

WW

Pha

rma

R&

D S

pend

($bn

)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

R&

D S

pend

Gro

wth

%

Global Pharmaceutical R&D Spend Set to Grow by 1.5% (CAGR) to $149bn by 2018; Industry Reinvestment Rate DecliningEvaluatePharma® estimates that worldwide pharmaceutical R&D totalled $135bn in 2011, a 4.9% increase on 2010. This growth rate was a lot higher than that observed in 2010 (0.8% growth), although this can largely be attributed to the weakness of the dollar in 2011 as a lot of the R&D costs will have been booked in euros and Swiss francs. Over the last 10 years over 1 trillion dollars has been spent on R&D by the pharmaceutical industry. The cost per NME dropped significantly from $4.6bn in 2010 to $3.7bn in 2011, based on a 3 year lag period between the R&D expenditure and the NME approval*.

Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies.Forecast pharmaceutical research and development spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level R&D spend, extrapolated to pharmaceutical R&D when a company has non-pharmaceutical R&D activity.*Cost per NME ($bn) (3 year lag) uses the R&D expense for 3 years prior to the NME approval instead of the same year. e.g. the 2011 figure of $3.7bn is the R&D expense in 2008 divided by the number of NMEs in 2011.

+1.5% CAGR 2011-18

+6.5% CAGR 2004-10

15


15Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2018: Top 20 Companies

Pharmaceutical R&D Spend (2011/18): Top 20 Companies & Total Market

Rank1102ynapmoC 2018 CAGR 11-18 Chg. (+/-) 2011 2018 Chg. (+/-)

1 Novartis 9.0 10.1 +2% - 19.2% 19.8% +0.5%2 Roche 8.1 8.7 +1% +1 21.9% 19.9% -2.0%3 Merck & Co 7.7 7.6 -0% +1 18.5% 18.6% +0.1%4 GlaxoSmithKline 5.7 7.2 +3% +2 16.2% 16.0% -0.2%5 Pfizer 8.1 6.7 -3% -3 15.2% 13.9% -1.3%6 Sanofi 6.5 6.7 +0% -1 16.5% 13.8% -2.7%7 Johnson & Johnson 5.1 5.9 +2% - 23.0% 21.9% -1.1%8 Eli Lilly 4.9 4.7 -1% +1 23.8% 34.1% +10.3%9 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.6 4.2 +2% +1 21.3% 19.9% -1.4%

10 AstraZeneca 5.0 4.1 -3% -2 15.6% 18.6% +3.1%11 Takeda 3.6 4.0 +2% - 24.2% 21.2% -3.1%12 Bayer 2.7 3.5 +4% +3 20.2% 21.9% +1.7%13 Abbott Laboratories 2.8 3.1 +2% +1 12.5% 13.6% +1.1%14 Novo Nordisk 1.8 3.1 +8% +5 14.5% 15.2% +0.7%15 Boehringer Ingelheim 3.2 3.1 -1% -3 22.8% 24.9% +2.1%16 Amgen 3.2 2.9 -1% -3 20.6% 20.2% -0.4%17 Astellas Pharma 2.4 2.6 +1% -1 21.5% 20.7% -0.8%18 Daiichi Sankyo 2.3 2.4 +0% -1 22.3% 18.1% -4.1%19 Celgene 1.3 2.0 +6% +4 28.8% 21.7% -7.1%20 Gilead Sciences 1.2 1.8 +6% +5 14.7% 11.9% -2.8%

Total Top 20 88.3 94.6 %3.81%7.81%0.1+ -0.4%Other 46.3 54.9 +2.4%Total 134.6 149.4 %9.61%8.81%5.1+ -1.9%


R&D As a % of Rx SalesPharma R&D ($bn)

Pharmaceutical R&D in 2018: Top 10 CompaniesSource: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

10.1

8.77.6 7.2 6.7 6.7

5.94.7 4.2 4.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Nov

artis

Roc

he

Mer

ck &

Co

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Pfiz

er

Sano

fi

John

son

&Jo

hnso

n

Eli L

illy

Bris

tol-M

yers

Squi

bb

Astra

Zene

ca

R&

D S

pend

($bn

)

Note: Forecast pharmaceutical R&D spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level R&D spend.

Novartis Remains Top Pharmaceutical R&D Spender in 2018EvaluatePharma®'s consensus forecast finds Novartis spending the most on pharmaceutical research and development by 2018, with a spend of $10.1bn. Of the top 20 companies, Novo Nordisk is forecast to be growing its R&D expense most rapidly, with R&D costs forecast to rise 8% per year from $1.8bn in 2011 to $3.1bn in 2018. 6 companies in the Top 20 are forecast to see R&D costs decline to 2018, including Pfizer, Merck & Co, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly.

+2%

+1%

+3% 0%

-1%

0% -3%

+2% -3%

R&D Spend ($bn)CAGR 2011-18 (%)

+2%

16

Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2018: Top 20 Companies

16Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1998 to 2011

FDA Approval Count (NMEs & Biologicals) vs. 5th Year after Launch USA Product Sales

Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011No. of NMEs Approved 30 35 27 24 17 21 31 18 18 16 21 19 15 24No. of Biologicals Approved 9 5 6 8 9 14 7 10 11 10 10 15 11 11Total NMEs + Biologicals 39 40 33 32 26 35 38 28 29 26 31 34 26 35 % Chg. +3% -18% -3% -19% +35% +9% -26% +4% -10% +19% +10% -24% +35%USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn 13.5 7.1 7.4 8.5 12.7 8.3 14.1 6.4 8.9 4.3 5.2 5.0 11.0 12.0 % Chg. -48% +4% +14% +50% -34% +69% -55% +40% -52% +21% -4% +120% +10%5yr USA Sales per Approval $m 347 178 224 264 487 238 371 228 308 166 169 147 422 343 % Chg. -49% +26% +18% +84% -51% +56% -39% +35% -46% +2% -13% +187% -19%

Top 10 New Molecular Entities in 2011: Ranked on USA Consensus Sales in 2016

Product 2011 20161 Eylea 943,152slacituecamrahP norenegeR2 Xarelto 081,122nosnhoJ & nosnhoJ3 Yervoy 969223bbiuqS sreyM-lotsirB4 Brilinta AstraZeneca 11 9565 Benlysta 30925secneicS emoneG namuH6 Zytiga 818341nosnhoJ & nosnhoJ7 Jakafi Incyte 2 7328 Viibryd 23575seirotarobaL tseroF9 Tradjenta 09423miehlegnI regnirheoB

10 Xalkori Pfizer 33 486Other 1,286 3,600Total 1,984 12,014Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

Aug 2011

Apr 2011Nov 2011Jan 2011May 2011

Jul 2011Mar 2011Jul 2011Mar 2011

Company ApprovedUS Sales

Nov 2011

FDA Approval Count vs. Total USA Product Sales 5 Years After LaunchSource: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

$14bn

$7bn $7bn$8bn

$13bn

$8bn

$14bn

$6bn

$4bn $5bn

$12bn

$9bn

$5bn

$11bn

39 40

33 3226 28 26

35

26

3529 31

3438

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA

Sal

es 5

Yrs

afte

r Lau

nch

($bn

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No.

of N

ew D

rugs

USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn No. of NMEs Approved

Number of New Drugs Approved Increases 35%; 5 Year Sales Increases 10%EvaluatePharma® found that the FDA approved 35 new drugs in 2011, an increase of 35% from the 2010 figure of 26. The 2011 approvals included 24 new molecular entities (up 9) and 11 biologicals (flat vs. 2010). Despite this large improvement in the number of approvals, the total USA sales 5 years post launch only increased 10% in 2011 to $12bn. As a result the average 5 year sales per approval dropped 19% to $343m in 2011 from $422m in 2010. This reflects the fact that only 2 products from 2011's crop of approvals, J&J/Bayer's Xarelto and Regeneron/Bayer's Eylea, are forecast to have 5 year sales in excess of $1bn.

Product name (company ticker) of products in good years (>$1bn) sales)

Average 5th Year USA Sales Potential: $8.6bn

Note: Sales forecasts based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates.

5th year USA sales for products approved up to the end of 2006 are based on actual company reported sales. E.g. Januvia (Merck & Co), approved in Oct 2006 has company reported US sales in 2011 (5th year post US launch) of $1,824m.

2004 Avastin (Roche)Cymbalta (LLY)Spiriva (BI/ PFE)

Lyrica (PFE)

2002Neulasta (AGMN)

Abilify (BMY/ Otsuka)Zetia (SGP/ MRK)

Humira (ABT)Eloxatin (SNY)

1998Remicade (JNJ)Singulair (MRK)Celebrex (PFE)

Enbrel (AMGN/ WYE)Viagra (PFE)Celexa (FRX)

2011 Xarelto (J&J/BAY)

Eylea (REGN/BAY)

2010 Prevnar 13 (PFE)Victoza (Novo N)

Prolia/Xgeva (AMGN)

17

FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1998 to 2011

17Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2018

Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Sales in 2012, Market Share & Sales Growth (2007-12)

WW Rx & OTC Sales by EvaluatePharma® Therapy Area (2011/18): Top 15 Categories & Total Market

CAGR RankTherapy Area 2011 2018 % Growth 2011 2018 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Oncology -%6.2+%1.11%6.8%1.7+1.4016.462 Anti-diabetics 3+%7.1+%2.6%6.4%8.7+2.854.433 Anti-rheumatics %8.4%0.5%6.2+0.546.73 -0.2% -4 Vaccines 3+%0.1+%3.4%3.3%0.7+9.939.425 Bronchodilators 35.6 32.2 -1.4% 4.7% 3.4% -1.3% -16 Anti-virals 2+%3.0+%4.3%1.3%6.4+1.234.327 Anti-hypertensives 41.2 28.4 -5.2% 5.5% 3.0% -2.4% -58 Sensory Organs 2+%3.0+%2.2%9.1%5.5+9.024.419 Dermatologicals 2+%2.0+%0.2%8.1%4.4+9.819.3110 Anti-hyperlipidaemics 30.7 18.0 -7.3% 4.1% 1.9% -2.1% -411 Anti-coagulants 3+%7.0+%8.1%1.1%9.01+8.611.812 MS therapies %6.1%7.1%6.2+1.515.21 -0.1% -13 Anti-bacterials 15.6 14.7 -0.8% 2.1% 1.6% -0.5% -414 Anti-fibrinolytics %1.0+%4.1%3.1%6.4+5.318.9 -115 Immunosuppressants -%5.0+%4.1%9.0%2.9+6.218.6

Top 15 %8.0+%4.05%6.94%3.3+074473Other %6.94%4.05%9.2+464083 -0.8%Total WW Rx & OTC Sales 754 934 %0.001%0.001%1.3+

Total 'Rx & OTC Sales' includes:WW Generic Sales 65.0 96.3 %7.1+%3.01%6.8%8.5+OTC Pharmaceuticals 37.9 49.2 %2.0+%3.5%0.5%8.3+



Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales in 2011 based on company reported data. Sales forecasts to 2018 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for product sales and segmental sales.

Oncology Remains Largest Segment; Anti-coagulants Set to Record Highest Growth to 2018Oncology remains by far the largest segment to 2018, with strong growth from both in-line products and new products, off-setting a number of major patent expiries over the period. Over the period 2011 to 2018, EvaluatePharma® finds that sales from anti-coagulants are set to grow at an annual rate of 10.9%, driven by new oral treatments for the prevention of stroke, MI and thrombosis. Sales growth for anti-rheumatics is set to fall to 2.6% annually between 2011 and 2018 due to increased competition and the threat of biosimilar entrants to the leading biological anti-TNF products.

Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Areas in 2018, Market Share & Sales Growth (2011-18)Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

Oncology

Anti-diabetics

Anti-rheumatics

Vaccines

BronchodilatorsAnti-viralsAnti-hypertensives

Sensory OrgansDermatologicalsAnti-hyperlipidaemics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

%0.5-%0.01- %0.01+%0.5+%0.0+

% Sales Growth: CAGR 2011-18

WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%

Key Patent ExpiriesLipitor (PFE) in 2011, Tricor (ABT) in 2012, Niaspan (ABT) in 2013, Crestor (AZN) in 2016, Zetia (MRK) in 2016, Vytorin (MRK) in 2017

Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2018

Key DriversRevlimid (CELG), RG1273 (Roche), Afinitor (NVS), Yervoy (BMS), Avastin (Roche), Tasigna (NVS)Key Patent ExpiriesGleevec (NVS), Alimta (LLY), Eloxatin (SAN), Temodar (MRK), Xeloda (Roche), Velcade (Takeda)

Key Patent ExpiriesAngiotensin II antagonists segment Diovan (NVS) in 2012, Avapro (BMY/ SAN) in 2012, Atacand (AZN) in 2012, Micardis (BI) in 2014

18


18Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Oncology Market to 2018

Analysis on Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2011-18)

Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Oncology Sales 2011-18CAGR Rank Chg.

81-11028102110281-110281021102ynapmoCknaR1 Roche 21,768 27,551 +3% 33.7% 26.5% -2 Celgene 4,669 9,286 +10% 7.2% 8.9% +13 Novartis 6,759 8,050 +3% 10.5% 7.7% -14 Bristol-Myers Squibb 2,367 5,475 +13% 3.7% 5.3% +45 Pfizer 2,749 4,802 +8% 4.3% 4.6% +26 Johnson & Johnson 1,986 4,424 +12% 3.1% 4.3% +37 GlaxoSmithKline 1,087 3,344 +17% 1.7% 3.2% +78 AstraZeneca 3,705 2,881 -4% 5.7% 2.8% -39 Sanofi 3,721 2,692 -5% 5.8% 2.6% -5

10 Takeda 1,850 1,876 +0% 2.9% 1.8% -Top 10 50,661 70,382 +5% 78.4% 67.6%Other 13,952 33,717 +13% 21.6% 32.4%

990,401216,46yrtsudnI latoT +7% 100.0% 100.0%Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports

Top 5 Oncology Products Worldwide in 2018

tnerruCRGAC281021102ssalC amrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorPknaR 011-18 2011 2018 Status

1 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 5,984 7,576 +3% 9.3% 7.3% Marketed2 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 3,208 6,751 +11% 5.0% 6.5% Marketed

3 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 6,790 6,335 -1% 10.5% 6.1% Marketed

4 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb 5,940 5,310 -2% 9.2% 5.1% Marketed

5 Tasignanilotinib hydrochloride monohydrate

Novartis Multi-kinase inhibitor 716 2,615 +20% 1.1% 2.5% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Roche Forecast to Continue Domination of Oncology MarketEvaluatePharma® found that Roche was by far the dominant player in the oncology market in 2011 with a massive 33.7% market share, reflecting sales of $21.8bn. Although Roche is forecast to continue this dominance to 2018, sales are only forecast to grow by 3% per year between 2011 and 2018 and the company's market share is set to fall to 26.5% in 2018 (sales of $27.6bn). This low growth rate is due to the potential market entry of biosimilar Herceptin and Rituxan between 2011 and 2018, causing forecasts for both products to fall in this period.Bristol-Myers Squibb's oncology sales are forecast to grow by 13% between 2011 and 2018, moving the company to 4th spot in the company rankings, due to strong performances from Sprycel (dasatinib), Yervoy (ipilimumab) and Ixempra (ixabepilone).

Note: Oncology Includes: Alkaloids, Alkylating agents, Anti-metabolites, Anti-neoplastic MAbs, Cancer vaccines, Cytotoxic antibiotics, Hormone therapies, Platinum compounds and other anti-cancer. Excludes anti-emetics and anti-anaemics used in chemotherapy-induced anaemia. Also excludes: Interferons, Immunostimulants & Immunosuppressants.

Roche

CelgeneNovartis

Bristol-Myers SquibbPfizer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

-2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% +10% +12% +14% +16%


WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%



BMS: Strong growth from Sprycel, Yervoy and Ixempra.

NVS: Tasigna set to replace lost Gleevec sales by 2018 (Gleevec patent expiry JUL 2015).

Roche: Set to control 3 of top 5 oncology products in 2018 with Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin.

19

Oncology Market to 2018

19Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Anti-Diabetic Market to 2018


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-Diabetic Sales 2011-18

CAGR Rank Chg. 81-11028102110281-110281021102ynapmoCknaR

1 Novo Nordisk 9,420 16,733 +9% 27.4% 28.7% -2 Merck & Co 4,727 9,586 +11% 13.7% 16.5% +13 Sanofi 6,506 8,007 +3% 18.9% 13.8% -14 Eli Lilly 3,784 5,320 +5% 11.0% 9.1% +15 Takeda 4,405 4,059 -1% 12.8% 7.0% -16 Bristol-Myers Squibb 583 2,524 +23% 1.7% 4.3% +37 Novartis 775 1,620 +11% 2.3% 2.8% -18 Amylin Pharmaceuticals 622 1,364 +12% 1.8% 2.3% -9 Boehringer Ingelheim 43 1,250 +62% 0.1% 2.1% +15

10 Ono Pharmaceutical 495 608 +3% 1.4% 1.0% +1Top 10 31,359 51,070 +7% 91.1% 87.7%Other 3,077 7,133 +13% 8.9% 12.3%

402,85634,43yrtsudnI latoT +8% 100.0% 100.0%Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports

Top 5 Anti-Diabetic Products Worldwide in 2018

tnerruCRGAC281021102ssalC amrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorPknaR 011-18 2011 2018 Status

1 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate

Merck + Ono + Almirall

Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) inhibitor

5,096 9,705 +11% 14.8% 16.7% Marketed

2 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi Insulin 5,451 5,989 +2% 15.8% 10.3% Marketed

3 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk Insulin 2,392 4,929 +13% 6.9% 8.5% Marketed

4 Victoza liraglutide Novo NordiskGlucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonist

1,119 3,491 +21% 3.3% 6.0% Marketed

5 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly Insulin 2,368 2,523 +1% 6.9% 4.3% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Novo Nordisk Continues to Extend Dominance in Anti-Diabetic Market EvaluatePharma® found that Novo Nordisk is forecast to continue being the dominant player in the anti-diabetic market to 2018, with its market share rising from 27.4% in 2011 to 28.7% in 2018. This is attributable to strong forecast growth from the existing insulin franchise and Victoza, a GLP-1 agonist, as well as robust forecasts for Tresiba (insulin degludec), its potential new long-acting insulin product.Boehringer Ingelheim is forecast to jump 15 places in the rankings to number 9, with sales in the anti-diabetic market set to increase 62% per year between 2011 and 2018, thanks to the launch of Tradjenta, the company's new DPP-IV inhibitor. During 2011 Boehringer signed a major collaboration deal with Eli Lilly for a raft of diabetes products, clearly indicating its interest in this key therapeutic area.

Novo Nordisk

Eli LillyTakeda

Merck & CoSanofi

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-6% -4% -2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% +10% +12% +14%


WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%

Takeda: Actos generic competition expected 2012.



Novo: Solid growth in its core insulin franchise, including Tresiba (insulin degludec), and GLP-1 Victoza (liraglutide).

Merck: Strong growth in DPP-IV inhibitor franchise Januvia/Janumet.

20

Anti-Diabetic Market to 2018

20Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2018


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-rheumatic Sales 2011-18CAGR Rank Chg.

81-11028102110281-110281021102ynapmoCknaR1 Abbott Laboratories 7,932 7,281 -1% 21.1% 16.2% -2 Pfizer 7,365 6,875 -1% 19.6% 15.3% -3 Johnson & Johnson 4,280 5,372 +3% 11.4% 11.9% -4 Amgen 3,701 3,103 -2% 9.8% 6.9% -5 Merck & Co 3,362 2,799 -3% 8.9% 6.2% -6 Bristol-Myers Squibb 917 2,102 +13% 2.4% 4.7% +37 Roche 478 1,926 +22% 1.3% 4.3% +78 UCB 434 1,591 +20% 1.2% 3.5% +79 Hisamitsu Pharma 1,359 1,224 -1% 3.6% 2.7% -3

10 Bayer 1,009 1,218 +3% 2.7% 2.7% -3Top 10 30,837 33,491 +1% 82.0% 74.5%Other 6,781 11,471 +8% 18.0% 25.5%Total Industry 37,618 44,962 +3% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports

Top 5 Anti-rheumatic Products Worldwide in 2018tnerruCRGAC

Rank Product Generic Name Company Pharma Class 2011 2018 2011-18 2011 2018 Status1 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai Anti-TNFa MAb 8,236 8,167 -0% 21.9% 18.2% Marketed

2 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda TNFa inhibitor 7,892 7,187 -1% 21.0% 16.0% Marketed

3 Remicade* infliximab J&J + Merck + Mitsubishi Tanabe Anti-TNFa MAb 7,187 5,841 -3% 19.1% 13.0% Marketed

4 Actemra tocilizumab Roche + Chugai Anti-interleukin-6 (IL-6) MAb 698 2,392 +19% 1.9% 5.3% Marketed

5 Simponi* golimumab Merck + J&J Anti-TNFa MAb 674 2,262 +19% 1.8% 5.0% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Abbott Laboratories Remains No. 1 in 2018EvaluatePharma® forecasts that Abbott will remain the world's number 1 player in anti-rheumatic sales in 2018 with sales of $7.3bn. The top 5 players in this field are all forecast to experience declines or slow growth in sales to 2018 due to the potential threat of biosimilar competition to their leading products (Remicade, Enbrel and Humira) and the expected market entry of oral competitors. Outside the top 5, Bristol-Myers, Roche and UCB are expected to achieve strong growth from Orencia, Actemra and Cimzia, respectively.

Note: TNF inhibitor sales include RA, Crohn's and Psoriasis. Pfizer books US co-promotion revenues on Enbrel.*Combined Remicade and Simponi sales $8.1bn in 2018. Simponi (golimumab) is Merck & Co and J&J's next generation product to Remicade (infliximab).

Pfizer

Abbott Laboratories

Amgen

Johnson & Johnson

Merck & Co

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% +0% +1% +2% +3% +4% +5%


WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%



AMGN:Enbrel sales forecast to decline owing to increased competition in both RA and psoriasis and the threat of biosimilar entrants.

J&J:Growth due to acquisition of additional geographic rights to Remicade from Merck & Co and strong growth for Simponi.

21

Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2018

21Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Vaccine Market to 2018


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Vaccine Sales 2011-18

.ghC knaRRGAC81-11028102110281-110281021102ynapmoCknaR

1 GlaxoSmithKline 5,608 8,766 +7% 22.5% 22.0% +1

2 Sanofi + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD 5,634 7,956 +5% 22.6% 19.9% -1

3 Pfizer 4,145 7,376 +9% 16.7% 18.5% +1

4 Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD 4,447 5,912 +4% 17.9% 14.8% -1

5 Novartis 1,549 3,143 +11% 6.2% 7.9% -6 Johnson & Johnson 413 1,104 +15% 1.7% 2.8% +17 CSL 599 965 +7% 2.4% 2.4% -18 Baxter International 280 519 +9% 1.1% 1.3% +29 Takeda 356 488 +5% 1.4% 1.2% -

10 Novavax - 462 n/m 0.0% 1.2% New EntryTop 10 23,030 36,692 +7% 92.5% 92.0%

791,3168,1rehtO +8% 7.5% 8.0%Total Industry 24,891 39,889 +7% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Vaccine Products Worldwide in 2018tnerruCRGAC

Rank Product Generic Name Company 2011 2018 2011-18 2011 2018 Status

1 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer 3,657 6,720 +9% 14.7% 16.8% Marketed

2 PENTAct-HIB DTPw, Hib & polio vaccine Sanofi 1,496 2,051 +5% 6.0% 5.1% Marketed

3 Fluzone/Vaxigrip influenza vaccine Sanofi 1,150 1,743 +6% 4.6% 4.4% Marketed

4 Cervarix human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine GlaxoSmithKline 811 1,463 +9% 3.3% 3.7% Marketed

5 Hepatitis Vaccine Franchise

hepatitis A & B vaccine GlaxoSmithKline 1,103 1,363 +3% 4.4% 3.4% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

erahS tekraM WW)m$( selaS WW

WW Market Share

GlaxoSmithKline Number 1 Vaccine Player in 2018EvaluatePharma® finds that GSK is forecast to be the number 1 vaccine player in 2018, with sales expected to reach $8.8bn. Of the big 5 vaccine players, Novartis is forecast to have the highest growth, with a strong contribution expected from its new meningococcal vaccines, Bexsero and Menveo. Pfizer is also expected to achieve strong growth to 2018, based almost entirely on its pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, which is forecast to achieve a staggering $6.7bn in sales in 2018.

Note: Sanofi Pasteur MSD is a European joint venture between Merck & Co and Sanofi.

Novartis

Sanofi + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD

Pfizer

GlaxoSmithKline

Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

+0% +2% +4% +6% +8% +10% +12% +14%


WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%



PfizerStrong growth from pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13.

NovartisStrong contribution expected from new meningococcal vaccines. Bexsero (2018 sales: $1.1bn) and Menveo sales (2018 sales: $556m).

22

Vaccine Market to 2018

22Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Anti-Virals Market to 2018


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-virals Sales 2011-18CAGR Rank Chg.

81-11028102110281-110281021102ynapmoCknaR1 Gilead Sciences 7,050 13,839 +10% 30.1% 43.2% -2 Johnson & Johnson 1,723 4,448 +15% 7.4% 13.9% +33 GlaxoSmithKline 3,985 3,422 -2% 17.0% 10.7% -14 Merck & Co 1,865 2,912 +7% 8.0% 9.1% -5 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3,083 2,532 -3% 13.1% 7.9% -26 Roche 1,327 1,040 -3% 5.7% 3.2% +17 Abbott Laboratories 1,565 613 -13% 6.7% 1.9% -18 AstraZeneca 570 524 -1% 2.4% 1.6% +19 Mitsubishi Tanabe 18 435 +58% 0.1% 1.4% +12

10 Pharmstandard 199 353 +9% 0.8% 1.1% +1Top 10 21,384 30,117 +5% 91.2% 94.0%Other 2,061 1,936 -1% 8.8% 6.0%Total Industry 23,445 32,053 +5% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Anti-viral Products Worldwide in 2018tnerruCRGAC

281021102ssalC amrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorPknaR 011-18 2011 2018 Status

1 GS-7977 - Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor 0 5,359 n/m 0.0% 16.7% R&D

2 Quad

cobicistat; elvitegravir; emtricitabine; tenofovir

Gilead SciencesNRTI, HIV integrase inhibitor & CYP3A inhibitor

0 2,793 n/m 0.0% 8.7% R&D

3 Isentress raltegravir potassium Merck & Co HIV integrase inhibitor 1,359 2,028 +7% 5.8% 6.3% Marketed

4 Truvada emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead + Torii NRTI 3,001 1,715 -9% 12.8% 5.3% Marketed

5 Complera emtricitabine; rilpivirine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences NRTI & NNRTI 39 1,547 +85% 0.2% 4.8% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Gilead Sciences Extends Domination of Anti-Virals Market in 2018 Following Entry into Hepatitis C MarketEvaluatePharma® finds Gilead Sciences commands a 43% market share of the anti-virals area by 2018, with sales set to increase 10% annually between 2011 and 2018. In addition to its continued domination of the HIV market with the anticipated launch of its Quad treatment, Gilead is looking to enter the Hepatitis C arena and its potential new hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977, is forecast to achieve a massive $5.4bn in sales in 2018. Merck and Johnson & Johnson are also expected to benefit from sales of treatments for hepatitis C over the period.

Gilead Sciences

Johnson & Johnson

Merck & CoGlaxoSmithKline

Bristol-Myers Squibb

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-10% -5% +0% +5% +10% +15% +20%


WW

Mar

ket S

hare

%



J&J: Growth driven by hep C protease inhibitor Incivek (telaprevir).

MRK:Strong growth from HIV integrase inhibitor Isentress (raltegravir) and hep C protease inhibitor Victrelis (boceprevir).

Gilead: Set to continue dominance in innovative HIV combinational therapy. New hep C polymerase inhibitor (GS-7977) also forecast to drive growth.

Note: GlaxoSmithKline consolidates 100% of the revenues from ViiV Healthcare, a joint venture with Pfizer for the marketing of the two companies' HIV anti-virals.

GSK: Hit by patent expiries (Valtrex - DEC 2009). Weak performance predicted from HIV franchise.

23

Anti-Virals Market to 2018

23Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

2018: Top 50 Selling Products in the World

Market

ssalC lacigolocamrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorP 2011 2018 CAGR Status1 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck + Ono + Almirall 690,5rotibihni VI-PPD 9,705 +10% Marketed2 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai 632,8bAM aFNT-itnA 8,167 -0% Marketed3 Avastin bevacizumab Roche 489,5bAM FGEV-itnA 7,576 +3% Marketed4 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda 298,7rotibihni aFNT 7,187 -1% Marketed5 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene 802,3rotaludomonummI 6,751 +11% Marketed6 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 3,657 6,720 +9% Marketed7 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec 097,6bAM 02DC-itnA 6,335 -1% Marketed

8 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi 154,5nilusnI 5,989 +1% Marketed

9 Remicade infliximab J&J + Merck + Mitsubishi Tanabe 781,7bAM aFNT-itnA 5,841 -3% Marketed

10 Seretide/Advair fluticasone propionate; salmeterol xinafoate GSK + Almirall + Faes Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist &

corticosteroid 8,233 5,734 -5% Marketed

11 GS-7977 - Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor 0 5,359 R&D12 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche 049,5bAM 2REH-itnA 5,310 -2% Marketed13 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk 293,2nilusnI 4,929 +11% Marketed14 Eliquis apixaban Bristol-Myers Squibb + Pfizer 1rotibihni aX rotcaF 4,714 +244% Marketed15 Lucentis ranibizumab Novartis + Roche 277,3bAM FGEV-itnA 4,150 +1% Marketed16 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer + Eisai Alpha 2 delta ligand 3,836 3,886 +0% Marketed17 Soliris eculizumab Alexion Pharmaceuticals Anti-complement factor C5 MAb 783 3,782 +25% Marketed18 Botox botulinum toxin type A Allergan + GSK 647,1nixot munilutoB 3,580 +11% Marketed

19 Crestor rosuvastatin calcium AstraZeneca + Shionogi + Chiesi Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 7,161 3,504 -10% Marketed

20 Victoza liraglutide Novo Nordisk 911,1tsinoga 1-PLG 3,491 +18% Marketed21 BG-12 dimethyl fumarate Biogen Idec 0etaramuF 3,400 R&D22 Xarelto rivaroxaban Bayer + J&J 141rotibihni aX rotcaF 3,357 +57% Marketed

23 Xgeva/Prolia denosumab Amgen + GSK + Daiichi Sankyo 455bAM LKNAR-itnA 3,355 +29% Marketed

24 Spiriva tiotropium bromide monohydrate Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Long-acting muscarinic antagonist 4,389 3,330 -4% Marketed

25 Symbicort budesonide; formoterol fumarate dihydrate AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist &


26 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Kirin Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor 3,952 2,846 -5% Marketed

27 Quad cobicistat; elvitegravir; emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences NRTI, HIV integrase inhibitor &

CYP3A inhibitor 0 2,793 R&D

28 AMR101 ethyl icosapentate Amarin 0dica yttaf 3-agemO 2,675 R&D

29 Micardis telmisartan Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer Angiotensin II antagonist 3,669 2,658 -5% Marketed

30 Tasigna nilotinib hydrochloride monohydrate Novartis

BCR-ABL, platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFr) & c-kit tyrosine kinase inhibitor

716 2,615 +20% Marketed

31 Privigen immune globulin (human) CSL 096,1nilubolgonummI 2,591 +6% Marketed32 Stelara ustekinumab Johnson & Johnson Anti-IL-12 & IL-23 MAb 738 2,539 +19% Marketed33 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly 863,2nilusnI 2,523 +1% Marketed34 Advate factor VIII (procoagulant) Baxter International 119,1IIIV rotcaF 2,511 +4% Marketed35 Lovenox enoxaparin sodium Sanofi Heparin, low molecular weight 2,938 2,489 -2% Marketed36 RG1273 pertuzumab Roche 0bAM 2REH-itnA 2,482 R&D37 Nexium esomeprazole magnesium AstraZeneca + Daiichi Sankyo Proton pump inhibitor 4,478 2,434 -8% Marketed38 NovoMix 30 insulin; insulin aspart Novo Nordisk 645,1nilusnI 2,403 +6% Marketed

39 Afinitor everolimus Novartis Rapamycin analogue (mTOR inhibitor) 443 2,399 +27% Marketed

40 Actemra tocilizumab Roche + Chugai 896bAM 6-LI-itnA 2,392 +19% Marketed41 Benicar olmesartan medoxomil Daiichi Sankyo + Forest Angiotensin II antagonist 2,602 2,350 -1% Marketed

42 Onglyza/Kombiglyze saxagliptin hydrochloride Bristol-Myers + AstraZeneca + Otsuka 374rotibihni VI-PPD 2,317 +25% Marketed

43 Gammagard Liquid immune globulin (human) Baxter International 145,1nilubolgonummI 2,301 +6% Marketed44 Simponi golimumab Merck + J&J 476bAM aFNT-itnA 2,262 +19% Marketed

45 Human insulin & devices insulin (human) Novo Nordisk 644,2nilusnI 2,164 -2% Marketed

46 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfate Sanofi-Aventis + BMS Platelet aggregation inhibitor 9,654 2,158 -19% Marketed47 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Kirin 810,3niteioporhtyrE 2,100 -5% Marketed

48 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium Pfizer + Astellas + Almirall Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 10,840 2,086 -21% Marketed

49 Nesina alogliptin benzoate Takeda 691rotibihni VI-PPD 2,079 +40% Marketed

50 Vyvanse lisdexamfetamine dimesylate Shire 508tnalumitsohcysP 2,067 +14% Marketed

Total 154,131 189,500 +3%Total WW Individual Products Forecast in EvaluatePharma® 597,465 692,994 +2%


WW Product Sales ($m)

Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates.

Januvia/Janumet No.1 in 2018EvaluatePharma® finds that the largest global brand in 2018 is forecast to be Merck's Januvia/Janumet franchise, which is forecast to grow by 10% annually between 2011 and 2018 to reach $9.7bn in sales in 2018. Gilead's potential new hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977, which is forecast to achieve $5.4bn in sales in 2018, is the highest ranked R&D product in 2018, at position 11 in the list of global brands. The second highest ranked product currently in R&D is Biogen Idec's oral MS agent, BG-12, which is expected to reach $3.4bn in sales in 2018, ranking it 21st.

24


24Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

2018: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA

WW MarketssalC lacigolocamrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorP 2011 2018 CAGR Status

1 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck & Co 635,2rotibihni VI-PPD 4,180 +7% Marketed2 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene 038,1rotaludomonummI 3,549 +10% Marketed3 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec 870,3bAM 02DC-itnA 3,161 +0% Marketed4 GS-7977 - Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor 0 3,062 R&D5 Avastin bevacizumab Roche 946,2bAM FGEV-itnA 2,962 +2% Marketed6 Remicade infliximab Johnson & Johnson 672,3bAM aFNT-itnA 2,952 -1% Marketed7 Enbrel etanercept Amgen 854,3rotibihni aFNT 2,857 -3% Marketed8 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi Insulin 3,251 2,784 -2% Marketed

9 Spiriva tiotropium bromide monohydrate Boehringer Ingelheim Long-acting muscarinic antagonist 2,084 2,753 +4% Marketed

10 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor 3,006 2,726 -1% Marketed

11 Eliquis apixaban Bristol-Myers Squibb + Pfizer 0rotibihni aX rotcaF 2,700 Marketed

12 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 1,928 2,615 +4% Marketed13 Humira adalimumab Abbott Laboratories 724,3bAM aFNT-itnA 2,597 -4% Marketed

14 Seretide/Advair fluticasone propionate; salmeterol xinafoate GlaxoSmithKline Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist &


15 AMR101 ethyl icosapentate Amarin 0dica yttaf 3-agemO 2,148 R&D16 Victoza liraglutide Novo Nordisk 607tsinoga 1-PLG 2,093 +17% Marketed17 Soliris eculizumab Alexion Pharmaceuticals Anti-complement factor C5 MAb 270 2,014 +33% Marketed18 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk Insulin 957 1,972 +11% Marketed19 Xgeva/Prolia denosumab Amgen 374bAM LKNAR-itnA 1,886 +22% Marketed20 BG-12 dimethyl fumarate Biogen Idec Fumarate 0 1,864 R&D21 Vyvanse lisdexamfetamine dimesylate Shire 508tnalumitsohcysP 1,861 +13% Marketed22 Eylea aflibercept Regeneron Pharmaceuticals VEGFr kinase inhibitor 25 1,848 +85% Marketed23 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche 806,1bAM 2REH-itnA 1,792 +2% Marketed

24 Quad cobicistat; elvitegravir; emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences NRTI, HIV integrase inhibitor & CYP3A

inhibitor 0 1,717 R&D

25 Xarelto rivaroxaban Johnson & Johnson 22rotibihni aX rotcaF 1,667 +86% Marketed26 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer 415,1dnagil atled 2 ahplA 1,620 +1% Marketed27 Botox botulinum toxin type A Allergan 558nixot munilutoB 1,599 +9% Marketed28 Lucentis ranibizumab Roche 227,1bAM FGEV-itnA 1,579 -1% Marketed29 Gammagard Liquid immune globulin (human) Baxter International 380,1nilubolgonummI 1,551 +5% Marketed30 Stelara ustekinumab Johnson & Johnson Anti-IL-12 & IL-23 MAb 443 1,407 +18% Marketed

31 Onglyza saxagliptin hydrochloride Bristol-Myers Squibb + AstraZeneca 933rotibihni VI-PPD 1,391 +22% Marketed

32 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly Insulin 1,399 1,256 -2% Marketed33 Orencia abatacept Bristol-Myers Squibb T-cell costimulation blocker 615 1,240 +11% Marketed

34 Byetta/Bydureon exenatide Amylin + Eli Lilly 815tsinoga 1-PLG 1,233 +13% Marketed

35 Benlysta belimumab Human Genome Sciences + GSK

Anti-B lymphocyte stimulator (BLyS) MAb 52 1,230 +57% Marketed

36 Cimzia certolizumab pegol UCB 513bAM aFNT-itnA 1,217 +21% Marketed37 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec 726,1ateb norefretnI 1,183 -4% Marketed38 Tofacitinib tofacitinib citrate Pfizer Janus kinase (JAK)-3 inhibitor 0 1,149 R&D39 Brilinta ticagrelor AstraZeneca Platelet ADP antagonist 11 1,144 +94% Marketed

40 Gilenya fingolimod hydrochloride Novartis Sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator 383 1,134 +17% Marketed

41 Jakafi ruxolitinib phosphate Incyte Janus kinase (JAK)-1/2 inhibitor 2 1,134 +147% Marketed42 Epogen/Procrit epoetin alfa Amgen + J&J 458,2niteioporhtyrE 1,117 -13% Marketed43 Yervoy ipilimumab Bristol-Myers Squibb 223bAM 4ALTC-itnA 1,112 +19% Marketed

44 Complera emtricitabine; rilpivirine; tenofovir disoproxil fumarate Gilead Sciences 93ITRNN & ITRN 1,112 +62% Marketed

45 EpiPen epinephrine Mylan Alpha & beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist 416 1,097 +15% Marketed

46 Kalydeco ivacaftor Vertex PharmaceuticalsCystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) potentiator

0 1,016 Marketed

47 Tylenol acetaminophen Johnson & Johnson Non-narcotic analgesic 874 996 +2% Marketed

48 Linaclotide linaclotide Forest Laboratories Guanylate cyclase type-C receptor agonist 0 993 R&D

49 Restasis cyclosporine Allergan Tear secretion enhancer 692 990 +5% Marketed50 Xifaxan rifaximin Salix Pharmaceuticals 273nicymasnA 986 +15% Marketed

Total 55,803 92,479 +7%Total USA Individual Products Forecast in EvaluatePharma® 249,264 273,340 +1%


USA Product Sales ($m)


Januvia/Janumet Also No.1 in the US in 2018EvaluatePharma® finds that Merck's Januvia/Janumet franchise is also set to be the No.1 brand in the US in 2018. With sales in the US forecast to reach $3.1bn in 2018, Gilead's GS-7977 is expected to be the top product currently in R&D in the US in 2018 and ranks an impressive 4th on the list, ahead of Avastin, Remicade and Enbrel.

25


25Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.


Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Sales in 2011, Market Share & Sales Growth (2010-11)

WW Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area: Top 15 Categories

RankTherapy Area 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Oncology 60.2 64.6 +7% 8.5% 8.6% +0.1% -2 Anti-hypertensives 41.0 41.2 +0% 5.8% 5.5% -0.3% -3 Anti-rheumatics 32.9 37.6 +14% 4.6% 5.0% +0.4% +14 Bronchodilators 33.0 35.6 +8% 4.6% 4.7% +0.1% -15 Anti-diabetics 30.8 34.4 +12% 4.3% 4.6% +0.2% -6 Anti-hyperlipidaemics 30.0 30.7 +2% 4.2% 4.1% -0.2% -7 Vaccines 26.0 24.9 -4% 3.7% 3.3% -0.4% -8 Anti-virals 22.4 23.4 +5% 3.2% 3.1% -0.0% -9 Anti-psychotics 19.6 21.2 +9% 2.8% 2.8% +0.1% -10 Anti-bacterials 16.1 15.6 -3% 2.3% 2.1% -0.2% +111 Antacids and Anti-ulcerants 16.6 15.2 -9% 2.3% 2.0% -0.3% -112 Sensory Organs 13.7 14.4 +5% 1.9% 1.9% -0.0% +113 Dermatologicals 13.0 13.9 +7% 1.8% 1.8% +0.0% +114 Platelet aggregation inhibitors 12.9 13.7 +7% 1.8% 1.8% +0.0% +115 Antidepressants 13.8 12.9 -6% 1.9% 1.7% -0.2% -1

Top 15 381.9 399.3 +5% 53.7% 53.0% -0.7%Other 328.8 354.3 +8% 46.3% 47.0% Total WW Rx & OTC Sales 710.7 753.6 +6% 100.0% 100.0%

Total 'Rx & OTC Sales' includes: WW Generic Sales 59.2 65.0 +9.9% 8.3% 8.6% +0.3% OTC Pharmaceuticals 34.7 37.9 +9.2% 4.9% 5.0% +0.1%


Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies.Sales in 2011 based on company reported data.

Oncology Segment Largest Segment in 2011; Anti-rheumatics Fastest GrowingEvaluatePharma® found that oncology remained the largest therapeutic category in 2011, with sales growing by 7% to $64.6bn, representing 8.6% of the WW Rx & OTC market. Anti-rheumatics again demonstrated the highest growth in 2011, increasing 14% vs. 2010, driven by strong growth from biological TNF therapies. Anti-diabetics also grew strongly by 12%, which was largely attibutable to robust performances from Novo Nordisk's insulin franchise and DPP-IV inhibitors. Vaccine sales declined 4% as sales of swine influenza vaccines dropped off in 2011.

Oncology

Anti-rheumatics

Anti-hypertensives

BronchodilatorsAnti-diabeticsAnti-hyperlipidaemics

Anti-virals Anti-psychotics

Anti-bacterials

Vaccines

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-10% -5% +0% +5% +10% +15% +20%% Sales Growth: 2010-11

WW

Mar

ket S

hare

% Key DriversAvastin (Roche)Alimta (Lilly)Revlimid (Celgene)

Patent ExpiriesEloxatin (Sanofi)Arimidex (AZN)


Key Drivers Humira (Abbott)Enbrel (Amgen/Pfizer)Remicade (J&J/ Merck)

Growth BreaksSwine flu (H1N1) vaccines

26


26Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2011

WW Prescription Sales in 2011: Top 20 Companies

RankCompany 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Pfizer 53.9 53.5 -1% 8.0% 7.5% -0.5% -2 Novartis 41.9 46.7 +11% 6.2% 6.5% +0.3% -3 Merck & Co 40.4 41.9 +4% 6.0% 5.9% -0.1% -4 Sanofi 36.8 39.3 +7% 5.5% 5.5% +0.0% -5 Roche 35.6 37.0 +4% 5.3% 5.2% -0.1% -6 GlaxoSmithKline 35.6 34.9 -2% 5.3% 4.9% -0.4% -7 AstraZeneca 32.1 32.4 +1% 4.7% 4.5% -0.2% -8 Abbott Laboratories 19.9 22.4 +13% 2.9% 3.1% +0.2% +19 Johnson & Johnson 20.8 22.3 +7% 3.1% 3.1% +0.0% -1

10 Eli Lilly 19.7 20.4 +4% 2.9% 2.8% -0.1% -11 Bristol-Myers Squibb 15.5 16.9 +9% 2.3% 2.4% +0.1% -12 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 13.8 15.7 +13% 2.0% 2.2% +0.1% +113 Amgen 14.7 15.3 +4% 2.2% 2.1% -0.0% -114 Takeda 12.6 14.7 +17% 1.9% 2.1% +0.2% +215 Boehringer Ingelheim 12.8 14.1 +10% 1.9% 2.0% +0.1% -116 Bayer 12.8 13.4 +5% 1.9% 1.9% -0.0% -117 Novo Nordisk 10.8 12.4 +14% 1.6% 1.7% +0.1% -18 Astellas Pharma 10.3 11.2 +8% 1.5% 1.6% +0.0% -19 Daiichi Sankyo 10.0 10.5 +5% 1.5% 1.5% -0.0% -20 Baxter International 8.1 8.6 +7% 1.2% 1.2% +0.0% -

Total Top 20 458.0 483.6 +6% 67.8% 67.6% -0.2%Other 217.6 232.2 +7% 32.2% 32.4%Total 675.6 715.7 +5.9% 100.0% 100.0%


WW Market ShareWW Prescription Sales ($bn)

Global Ranking on WW Prescription Drug Sales in 2011Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

53.5

46.741.9

39.334.9

32.4

22.4 22.3 20.4

37.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pfiz

er

Nov

artis

Mer

ck &

Co

San

ofi

Roc

he

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Ast

raZe

neca

Abb

ott

Labo

rato

ries

Joh

nson

&Jo

hnso

n

Eli

Lilly

WW

Pre

scrip

tion

Sale

s ($

bn)

Pfizer Maintains No.1 PositionEvaluatePharma® found that Pfizer maintained its number one position in 2011, in terms of worldwide prescription drug sales, despite sales declining 1%. Excluding M&A-related increases*, Novo Nordisk experienced the strongest growth of the top 20 in 2011, with sales growing by 14% (11% in local currency) on the back of its industry-leading insulin franchise and GLP-1 agonist, Victoza. Industry-wide prescription drug sales grew 5.9% in dollar terms to $716bn in 2011. This growth rate is a large increase over the 2.8% growth seen in 2010, although this is largely attributable to the weakness of the dollar in 2011.

Note: Sales in 2011 based on company reported data. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible. *Novartis and Takeda based on reported data for 2010/11, not pro-forma. (Novartis consolidated Alcon from Aug 2010, Takeda acquired Nycomed in Sep 2011).

-1%

+11% +4%

+7% +4% -2%

+1%

+13% +7% +4%

Sales ($bn)Growth rate %

Ranking Chg. 2010-11

-1 +1

27

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2011

27Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2011

WW Unbranded Generic Drug Sales in 2011: Top 20 Companies

RankCompany 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 9.3 9.4 +2% 15.7% 14.5% -1.1% -2 Novartis 7.7 8.6 +11% 13.1% 13.2% +0.1% -3 Mylan 5.0 5.6 +11% 8.5% 8.6% +0.1% -4 Watson Pharmaceuticals 2.3 3.3 +46% 3.8% 5.1% +1.3% -5 Sanofi 2.0 2.4 +19% 3.4% 3.7% +0.3% +16 Daiichi Sankyo 2.0 2.2 +11% 3.4% 3.4% +0.0% +27 Hospira 2.0 2.2 +8% 3.4% 3.4% -0.1% -28 Actavis 2.0 2.2 +9% 3.4% 3.4% -0.0% -19 Aspen Pharmacare 1.6 1.8 +12% 2.7% 2.8% +0.1% -

10 STADA Arzneimittel 1.5 1.7 +11% 2.5% 2.5% +0.0% -11 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 1.3 1.7 +29% 2.2% 2.5% +0.4% -12 Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 1.1 1.5 +35% 1.9% 2.3% +0.4% +313 Cipla 1.2 1.3 +10% 2.0% 2.0% +0.0% -114 Nichi-Iko Pharmaceutical** 0.7 1.3 +79% 1.2% 2.0% +0.8% +815 Fresenius 1.1 1.3 +13% 1.9% 2.0% +0.1% -116 Apotex 1.2 1.3 +9% 2.0% 2.0% -0.0% -317 Krka Group 1.1 1.2 +12% 1.9% 1.9% +0.0% -118 Lupin 1.1 1.2 +15% 1.8% 1.9% +0.1% -119 Abdi Ibrahim 0.9 0.9 -5% 1.5% 1.3% -0.2% -120 Zydus Cadila 0.7 0.9 +16% 1.2% 1.3% +0.1% -

Total Top 20 45.9 51.9 +13% 77.6% 79.9% +2.3%Other 13.2 13.1 -1% 22.4% 20.1%Total 59.2 65.0 +10% 100.0% 100.0%


WW Generic Sales ($bn) WW Market Share

Global Ranking on WW Generic Drug Sales in 2011Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

9.48.6

5.6

3.3

2.2 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.72.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Tev

aPh

arm

aceu

tical

Indu

strie

s

Nov

artis

Myl

an

Wat

son

Phar

mac

eutic

als

San

ofi

Dai

ichi

San

kyo

Hos

pira

Act

avis

Asp

enPh

arm

acar

e

STA

DA

Arzn

eim

ittel

WW

Gen

eric

Sal

es ($

bn)

Teva's Generic Sales Growth Slows in 2011; Novartis Drawing CloserEvaluatePharma® found that Teva continued to lead the generic drug market in 2011 with sales of $9.4bn, representing a global market share of 14.5%. However, this only reflected 2% growth compared to 2010. Novartis, in 2nd place, grew by 11% in 2011 to achieve generic sales of $8.6bn and close the gap on its Israel-based rival. Watson experienced strong growth of 46% in 2011 as it benefited from the launches of authorized generics for Lipitor and Concerta during the year. Overall the generic drug market expanded 10% in 2011 to $65bn based on EvaluatePharma® coverage*.

Note: Sales in 2011 based on company reported data (Apotex, Aspen, Cipla, Dr. Reddy's, Lupin, and Sun based on forecast data for 2011).*EvaluatePharma® coverage: 65 generic companies. **Nichi-Iko's figure for 2011 reflects 16 month period 1 December 2010 to 31 March 2012, due to a change in fiscal year end.

+2%

Sales ($bn)Growth rate %

+11%

+11%

+46%

+19% +11% +8% +9% +12% +11%

28

Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2011

28Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

M&A Analysis: 2007 to 2011

Count of Pharma M&A Deals vs. Total Pharma M&A Value (2007 - 2011)

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Deal Count 167 177 162 181 184 % Chg. 6% -8% 12% 2%Deal Value ($bn) 88 71 189 75 89 % Chg. -19% 166% -60% 20%

Top 10 M&A Deals in 2011: Ranked on Deal Value

Target Target Target Acquiror Completion DealLocation Focus Date Value ($bn)

1.0211 rpA 80ifonaSygolonhcetoiBASUemyzneG1.3111 peS 03adekaTrojaM lanoigeRdnalreztiwSdemocyN2 16.911 rpA 80sitravoNytlaicepSASUnoclA3

4 Cephalon USA Specialty Teva Pharmaceutical 14 Oct 11 6.86.311 beF 82rezifPytlaicepSASUgniK54.311 nuJ 10slofirGygolonhcetoiBASUsircelaT6

7 Capsugel USA Specialty Consortium of Investors 01 Aug 11 2.48 Crucell The Netherlands Biotechnology Johnson & Johnson 08 Mar 11 2.29 Taiyo Pharma Japan Generic Teva Pharmaceutical 14 Jul 11 1.4

10 Mantecorp Brazil Generic Hypermarcas 31 Jan 11 1.3Other 25.6Total 89.5


Count of Pharma M&A Deals vs. Total Pharma M&A Value (2005 - 2009) Source: EvaluatePharma® (30 APR 2010)

$88bn $71bn $75bn $89bn$189bn

167177

162181 184

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dea

l Val

ue ($

bn)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dea

l Cou

nt

Deal Value Deal Count

M&A Deal Value Grows 20% in 2011; Deal Count Relatively Flat vs 2010EvaluatePharma® found that total deal values from M&A involving pharmaceutical companies increased by 20% to $89bn in 2011, compared with $75bn in 2010. The number of deals increased marginally (+2%) to 184 deals closing in 2011. The biggest deal of the year saw Sanofi acquire Genzyme for $20.1bn in April. Other significant deals were Takeda's $13.1bn acquisition of Nycomed, Novartis buying the remaining share of Alcon it did not already own for $9.6bn and Teva acquiring Cephalon for $6.8bn to expand its branded pharmaceutical business.

2005FUJ [YAM] ($20.8bn)SAN [DAI] ($15.4bn)

2006SCH [BAY] ($21.3bn)

PFE Cons [JNJ] ($16.6bn)

2007Organon [SGP] ($15.6bn)

MEDI [AZN] ($15.6bn)Serono [Merck] ($13.8bn)

2008Alcon [NVS] ($10.4bn)

2009WYE [PFE] ($68.0bn)

DNA [Roche] ($46.8bn)SGP [MRK] ($41.1bn)

Target [Acquiror] (Deal Value)

173% Growth

Count of Pharma M&A Deals vs. Total Pharma M&A Value (2007 - 2011) Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

$88bn $71bn $75bn $89bn$189bn

167177

162181 184

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dea

l Val

ue ($

bn)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dea

l Cou

nt


2007Organon [SGP] ($15.6bn)

MEDI [AZN] ($15.6bn)Serono [Merck] ($13.8bn)


2009Wyeth [PFE] ($68.0bn)DNA [Roche] ($46.8bn)SGP [MRK] ($41.1bn)

Target [Acquiror] (Deal Value)

Note: Analysis based on closing date of deal.


2011GENZ [Sanofi] ($20.1bn)NYC [Takeda] ($13.1bn)

Alcon [NVS] ($9.6bn)

29

M&A Analysis: 2007 to 2011

29Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Venture Financing Analysis: 2007 to 2011

Count of Pharma Venture Financing Deals vs. Total Pharma Venture Financing Value (2007 - 2011)

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Deal Count 364 340 377 391 298 % Chg. -7% 11% 4% -24%Deal Value ($m) 6,631 5,102 5,570 5,207 4,138 % Chg. -23% 9% -7% -21%

Top 10 Venture Financing Deals in 2011: Ranked on Deal Value

ynapmoCyrtnuoC/ detsiLynapmoC Financing Roun Date DealPrivate Type Value ($m)

10111 nuJ 12B seireSygolonhcetoiBASUetavirPORASET10111 yaM 13E seireSygolonhcetoiBASUetavirPnoxertnI2 00111 rpA 60A seireSygolonhcetoiBASUetavirPsitelcsA3 0

4 Portola Pharmaceuticals Private USA Biotechnology Series E 21 Nov 11 895 Agios Pharmaceuticals Private USA Biotechnology Series C 17 Nov 11 786 Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Listed USA Biotechnology Series G 13 Apr 11 777 Rempex Pharmaceuticals Private USA Biotechnology Series B 09 Nov 11 688 Advanced Accelerator Applications Private France Specialty Undisclosed 22 Jul 11 579 Puma Biotechnology Listed USA Biotechnology Undisclosed 05 Oct 11 55

0511 rpA 91G seireSygolonhcetoiBASUetavirPtragnaS01Other 3,363Total 4,138


Venture Financing Deals Slump in 2011EvaluatePharma® found that in 2011 both the number of venture financing deals, down 24% to 298, and the total deal value, down 21% to $4.1bn, fell vs. 2010. The value of venture financing deals can be viewed as a indicator of R&D investment in the private biotech sector. At $4.1bn it represents a mere 3% of the total pharmaceutical R&D spend of $135bn. Of the top 10 venture financing deals in 2011, 9 were for US-based companies, with the biggest being TESARO, a Massachusetts-based company focused on the development of oncology therapeutics, which raised $101m in June 2011.

Count of Venture Financing Deals vs. Total Venture Financing Value (2007 - 2011) Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

$6,631m

$5,102m $5,207m

$4,138m

$5,570m

364340

377 391

298

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dea

l Val

ue ($

m)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dea

l Cou

nt


Note: Includes investments in pharmaceutical and biotech companies only. Does not include genomics or medical devices companies.Includes Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE).

30

Venture Financing Analysis: 2007 to 2011

30Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

% Share Market CapCompany Event Type Product Therapy Area Date Commentary on Share Price Change Price Change Change

1 Novartis Phase III Trial Results

Gilenya Central Nervous System 15 Dec 11 15 Dec: Company announces positive results from a phase III trial of the marketed MS treatment Gilenya (fingolimod).

+4% +4,982

2 Roche Phase II Trial Results

RG1658 Cardiovascular 22 Aug 11 22 Aug: Abstracts released over the weekend ahead of the European Society of Cardiology congress reveal encouraging results from a phase II trial of Roche's HDL booster dalcetrapib.

+3% +3,558

3 Biogen Idec Phase III Trial Results

BG-12 Central Nervous System 21 Apr 11 21 Apr: More details from a phase III trial of the company's oral multiple sclerosis treatment, BG-12, reveal much stronger than anticipated efficacy; Q1 results also beat expectations.

+15% +3,178

4 Pfizer Phase III Trial Results

Toviaz Genito-Urinary 06 Dec 11 5 Dec [post market]: Company reports positive top-line data for its overactive bladder treatment, Toviaz, in which the drug meets its primary endpoint and is found to be superior to placebo.

+2% +2,998

5 Pfizer Phase III Trial Results

Eliquis Blood 23 Jun 11 22 Jun [post market]: Company and partner, Bristol-Myers Squibb, announce top-line phase III results for anti-coagulant, apixaban, in which the drug meets its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating superiority in efficacy and safety to warfarin, in patients with atrial fibrillation.

+2% +2,923

6 Pfizer Litigation Viagra Genito-Urinary 13 Jun 11 13 Jun: Company seeks to extend exclusive rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment, Viagra, until 2019; trial starts this week.

+2% +2,765

7 Bristol-Myers Squib Phase III Trial Results

Eliquis Blood 23 Jun 11 22 Jun [post market]: Company and partner, Pfizer, announce top-line phase III results for anti-coagulant, apixaban, in which the drug meets its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating superiority in efficacy and safety to warfarin, in patients with atrial fibrillation.

+6% +2,713

8 Bayer EU Advisory Committee

Xarelto Blood 23 Sep 11 23 Sep: The CHMP recommends approval of company's blood thinner, Xarelto, for two new chronic indications, the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrilation patients as well as for the treatment of deep vein thrombosis.

+6% +2,620

9 Bayer Phase III Trial Results

Alpharadin Various 26 Sep 11 23 Sep [post market]: Company and partner Algeta announce phase III results for prostate cancer treatment, radium Ra-223 chloride, in which the drug meets both its primary and secondary endpoints.

+5% +2,455

10 Biogen Idec Phase III Trial Results

BG-12 Central Nervous System 26 Oct 11 26 Oct: Company announces positive results from second phase III trial of BG-12 for MS, meeting primary endpoint and validating results of first phase III trial, announced 21 Oct.

+9% +2,437

11 Roche Phase III Trial Results

RG1273 Oncology & Immunomodulators

08 Dec 11 8 Dec: Company's breast cancer treatment, pertuzumab, meets its primary endpoint of extending progression-free survival in phase III trials.

+2% +2,407

12 Roche EU Product Approval

Tarceva Oncology & Immunomodulators

01 Sep 11 1 Sep: The European Commission approves company's cancer drug, Tarceva, for the treatment of NSCLC with epidermal growth factor receptor mutations.

+1% +2,252

13 Bayer EU Filing Xarelto Blood 06 Jan 11 5 Jan: Company and partner, Johnson & Johnson, submit EU and US filings respectively for anti-clotting drug, Xarelto, for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation, as well as for the treatment and prevention of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

+4% +2,241

14 Sanofi Phase III Trial Results

Iniparib Oncology & Immunomodulators

19 May 11 19 May: Company announces that phase III data of iniparib, semuloparin will be presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.18 May: ASCO release the abstracts ahead of their Annual Meeting 3-7 Jun.

+2% +2,185

15 Novo Nordisk Market Speculation

Victoza Endocrine 04 Jan 11 4 Jan: Danish business daily, Borsen, reports that company's diabetes drug, Victoza, could be worth DKK100bn ($17.97bn), if the drug is approved as a treatment for obesity, according to Citigroup.

+4% +2,020

Top 15 Total +41,734Total Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011 +375,812

Source: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer (29 MAY 2012)

Novartis Secures Largest One Day Market Capitalization Gain in 2011The analysis below highlights the top 15 product events which positively impacted shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by change in market capitalization) in 2011. The largest event was positive Phase III trial results for Gilenya, the recently launched oral MS therapy from Novartis, adding $5.0bn to the company's market cap., reflecting a 4% share price gain. The second largest event was the positive PII results for RG1658 (dalcetrapib), Roche's CETP inhibitor for the treatment of dyslipidaemia, which resulted in Roche's market cap. rising $3.6bn.

Note: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back to December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to track the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor announcements, etc).

31

Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

31Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

% Share Market CapCompany Event Type Product Therapy Area Date Commentary on Share Price Change Price Change Change

1 Merck & Co Product Suspended

MK-5348 Blood 13 Jan 11 13 Jan: Company halts one of two phase III trials of cardiovascular drug, vorapaxar, at the recommendation of a DSMB, after it was deemed inappropriate for patients who have suffered a stroke.

-7% -7,579

2 Roche Results Avastin Oncology & Immunomodulators

13 Oct 11 13 Oct: Company's Q3 sales misses analyst estimates, falling 14.5%, hurt by the strong Swiss franc and weak sales of cancer drugs, Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin.

-4% -7,319

3 Pfizer Market Speculation

Tofacitinib Musculoskeletal 21 Apr 11 21 Apr: An abstract posted on the EULAR website details results from the phase III ORAL Sync study of tofacitinib, revealing four patient deaths in the treatment arm.

-3% -4,795

4 Pfizer Complete Response Letter

Remoxy Central Nervous System 24 Jun 11 24 Jun: Company and partner, Pain Therapeutics, receive a complete response letter from the FDA for pain drug, Remoxy.

-3% -4,503

5 Teva Competitor Announcement

Laquinimod Central Nervous System 21 Apr 11 21 Apr: Biogen Idec reveals stronger than expected efficacy from a phase III trial of its oral MS drug, BG-12, raising fears Teva's own phase III MS pill, laquinimod, will struggle to compete.

-8% -3,910

6 Bayer Competitor Announcement

Xarelto Blood 23 Jun 11 23 Jun: Phase III results for Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s blood thinner, apixaban, a rival to company's Xarelto, show that apixaban prevented more strokes with less major bleeding than warfarin in patients with AF.

-5% -3,765

7 Dendreon Results Provenge Oncology & Immunomodulators

04 Aug 11 3 Aug [post market]: Company withdraws 2011 revenue guidance and announces job cuts due to lower-than-expected sales of key prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, caused by reimbursement difficulties.

-67% -3,595

8 Bayer FDA Advisory Committee

Xarelto Blood 06 Sep 11 6 Sep: The FDA releases documents ahead of an advisory panel meeting on 8 Sep for Xarelto, which state that the drug is not ready for approval and raise questions about its effectiveness.

-7% -3,215

9 Teva Phase III Trial Results

Laquinimod Central Nervous System 01 Aug 11 1 Aug: Company and partner Active Biotech's MS treatment, laquinimod, fails to meet its primary endpoints of reducing relapse rates and disability progression when compared with placebo, in phase III trials.

-6% -2,708

10 AstraZeneca Results Crestor Cardiovascular 28 Apr 11 28 Apr: Q1 revenues miss forecasts, and sales of the company's most important product, cholesterol pill Crestor, fall short of expectations.

-3% -2,372

11 Johnson & Johnson

FDA Approval Delay

Bapineuzumab Central Nervous System 26 May 11 26 May: Company hopes to seek U.S. approval for bapineuzumab in 2012 or 2013, but analysts are sceptical about the Alzheimer's drug, as new trials may be needed because of brain swelling seen in some patients and the questionable design of earlier studies.

-1% -2,138

12 Bayer Phase III Trial Results

Xarelto Blood 05 Apr 11 5 Apr: Phase III data for Xarelto demonstrates higher bleeding risk in patients with acute illnesses, when compared to Lovenox.

-3% -2,044

13 Roche Broker Downgrade

Avastin Oncology & Immunomodulators

03 Feb 11 3 Feb: Multiple analysts downgrade ratings following annual results on 2 Feb, when Roche cut its peak sales forecasts for cancer drug Avastin by $1bn.

-2% -1,910

14 Celgene Safety Concerns Revlimid Oncology & Immunomodulators

03 Feb 11 3 Feb: Safety concerns resurface that the company's cancer drug, Revlimid, is associated with secondary malignancies in some patients with multiple myeloma, on news that a long-term study being conducted in France has been stopped to investigate cases of cancer.

-7% -1,727

15 Novartis FDA Advisory Committee

Arcapta Respiratory 08 Mar 11 8 Mar: FDA advisory panel backs a lower dose of COPD treatment indacaterol but votes against approval of a higher 150mcg dose, potentially delaying approval and development of follow-on combination products.

-1% -1,576

Top 15 Total -53,156Total Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011 -272,272

Source: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer (29 MAY 2012)

Merck & Co Hit by Vorapaxar FailureThe analysis below highlights the largest 15 product events negatively impacting shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by change in market capitalization) in 2011. Merck & Co suffered a 7% fall in share price, wiping $7.6bn off the company's market cap, when development of MK-5348 (vorapaxar) was terminated following a recommendation from a data and safety monitoring board that the product was inappropriate for patients who have suffered a stroke.

Note: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back to December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to track the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor announcements, etc).

32

Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2011

32Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Enterprise Value Analysis: 2010 to 2011

Top 20 Companies in 2010: Ranked by Enterprise Value (based on valuation on 31 DEC 11)

Company 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-)1 Pfizer 156.3 174.5 +12% 17.51 21.42 +22% 2 1 +12 Johnson & Johnson 158.5 166.0 +5% 61.85 65.58 +6% 1 2 -13 Roche 141.7 164.0 +16% 141.50 170.56 +21% 4 3 +14 Novartis 149.8 152.7 +2% 58.95 57.17 -3% 3 4 -15 GlaxoSmithKline 114.4 129.8 +13% 39.22 45.63 +16% 6 5 +16 Merck & Co 116.8 117.2 +0% 36.04 37.70 +5% 5 6 -17 Sanofi 85.3 114.8 +35% 32.23 36.54 +13% 7 7 -8 Abbott Laboratories 85.0 94.9 +12% 47.47 55.75 +17% 8 8 -9 Novo Nordisk 61.3 63.3 +3% 112.57 115.26 +2% 10 9 +1

10 Bayer 71.1 63.2 -11% 73.36 63.80 -13% 9 10 -111 AstraZeneca 58.2 59.4 +2% 46.19 46.29 +0% 11 11 -12 Bristol-Myers Squibb 42.7 56.2 +32% 26.15 34.90 +33% 15 12 +313 Amgen 47.1 51.9 +10% 54.90 64.21 +17% 13 13 -14 Teva Pharmaceutical 52.4 48.8 -7% 52.13 40.12 -23% 12 14 -215 Eli Lilly 40.6 48.2 +19% 35.04 41.56 +19% 16 15 +116 Reckitt Benckiser 43.1 38.9 -10% 55.01 49.55 -10% 14 16 -217 Takeda 28.1 33.6 +20% 48.93 40.98 -16% 20 17 +318 Baxter International 31.0 29.9 -4% 50.62 49.19 -3% 17 18 -119 Celgene 26.5 28.7 +9% 59.14 67.60 +14% 21 19 +220 Gilead Sciences 30.5 28.5 -6% 36.24 40.93 +13% 18 20 -2

Total Top 20 1,540.2 1,664.6 +8% avg. +7%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (31 DEC 2011)

Enterprise Value ($bn) Share Price ($ ADR) Enterprise Value Ranking

Global Ranking on Enterprise Value in 2011Source: EvaluatePharma® (31 DEC 2011)

$166bn $164bn$153bn

$130bn$117bn $115bn

$95bn

$63bn $63bn

$174bn

+22%

+6%

+21%

-3%

+16%

+5%

+17%

+2%

+13%

-13%0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Pfiz

er

Joh

nson

&Jo

hnso

n

Roc

he

Nov

artis

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Mer

ck &

Co

San

ofi

Abb

ott

Labo

rato

ries

Nov

o N

ordi

sk

Bay

er

Mar

ket C

ap ($

bn)

-25%

-15%

-5%

+5%

+15%

+25%

+35%

+45%

+55%

+65%

+75%

Shar

e Pr

ice

Perf

orm

ance

(%)

Pfizer Takes No.1 Position in Enterprise Value Rankings in 2011EvaluatePharma® found that Pfizer's enterprise value rose by 12% in 2011 giving it the No.1 ranking, with a valuation of $175bn, overtaking J&J, which fell to 2nd with an enterprise value of $166bn. Bristol-Myers Squibb saw the greatest increase in share price over the year with 33% growth, which led to a 32% increase in the company's enterprise value to $56.2bn. This increase was due, in-part, to pipeline successes for Eliquis, originally obtained through the acquisition of DuPont in 2001, and Yervoy, initially in-licensed from Medarex in 2004 before BMS acquired the company outright in 2009. Of the Top 20, Teva suffered the biggest fall in share price, dropping 23% in 2011 due to a slowdown in the company's US generics business and poor clinical results for Laquinimod (investigational oral MS therapy) and positive clinical results for one of its key competitors, Biogen Idec's BG-12.

33

Enterprise Value Analysis: 2010 to 2011

33Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Net Income in 2011: Top 20 Companies


Company 2010 2011 % Growth 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-)1 Pfizer 17.9 18.2 +2% 26.7% 27.0% +0.3%2 Johnson & Johnson 13.3 13.9 +4% 21.6% 21.3% -0.2%3 Novartis 11.9 13.4 +13% 23.0% 22.5% -0.5%4 Sanofi 12.2 12.2 +0% 28.5% 26.3% -2.1%5 Roche 10.5 11.8 +12% 23.1% 24.6% +1.5%6 Merck & Co 10.7 11.7 +9% 23.3% 24.3% +1.0%7 AstraZeneca 9.6 9.9 +3% 29.0% 29.5% +0.5%8 GlaxoSmithKline 7.5 9.3 +25% 17.0% 21.2% +4.2%9 Abbott Laboratories 6.5 7.3 +13% 18.5% 18.9% +0.4%

10 Bayer 4.6 5.6 +21% 9.9% 10.9% +1.1%11 Eli Lilly 5.2 4.9 -6% 22.7% 20.2% -2.5%12 Amgen 4.9 4.8 -3% 32.6% 30.6% -1.9%13 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 4.1 4.4 +7% 25.6% 24.2% -1.4%14 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.7 3.9 +5% 19.2% 18.5% -0.7%15 Novo Nordisk 2.6 3.2 +24% 23.7% 25.8% +2.1%16 Reckitt Benckiser 2.6 2.9 +14% 19.6% 19.2% -0.5%17 Gilead Sciences 3.1 2.9 -6% 38.7% 34.5% -4.1%18 Baxter International 2.4 2.5 +4% 18.2% 17.8% -0.4%19 Boehringer Ingelheim 1.8 2.1 +14% 10.8% 11.2% +0.4%20 Covidien 1.7 2.0 +16% 16.3% 17.1% +0.7%

Top 20 136.8 146.9 +7% 23.6% 23.4% Weighted Avg.Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

Net Income Normalised ($bn) Net Margin

Global Ranking on Net Income Normalised: Top 10 CompaniesSource: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

18.2

13.9 13.412.2 11.8 11.7

9.9 9.37.3

5.6

02468

101214161820

Pfiz

er

John

son

&Jo

hnso

n

Nov

artis

Sano

fi

Roc

he

Mer

ck &

Co

Astra

Zene

ca

Gla

xoSm

ithKl

ine

Abbo

ttLa

bora

torie

s

Baye

r

Net

Inco

me

($bn

)

Measure: Net Income NormalisedThe accounting profit a company made during 2011, adjusted to exclude any one-off items, such as restructuring charges and disposal gains/ losses.

Pfizer Remains No. 1 in Terms of Net Income in 2011EvaluatePharma® found that Pfizer again reported the industry’s largest net income (normalised) in 2011, recording $18bn. Of the top 20 GlaxoSmithKline recorded the largest improvement in net margin, up 4.2% to 21.2%. This demonstrated somewhat of a recovery for GSK, which in 2010 suffered a 4.4% fall in net margin. Eli Lilly's net income (normalised) fell 6% to $4.9bn, with the net margin falling 2.5% to 20.2%. Of the top 20, Gilead was the most profitable company with a net margin of 34.5%.

+2%

+4% +13% +9%

+13%

+25%

+21%

+3%

+12%

Net income normalised ($bn)Growth rate %

(-)

34


34Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

Net Income Margin in 2011: Top 20 Companies

Net Margin in 2011: Top 20 Companies

Company 2010 2011 Chg. (+/-) 2010 2011 % Growth1 PDL BioPharma 48.8% 55.2% +6.4% 168 200 +18.7%2 Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 35.6% 36.2% +0.5% 421 892 +111.8%3 Warner Chilcott 29.9% 35.7% +5.8% 890 974 +9.4%4 Gilead Sciences 38.7% 34.5% -4.1% 3,073 2,894 -5.8%5 Celgene 31.3% 33.7% +2.4% 1,129 1,623 +43.8%6 ViroPharma 34.1% 31.8% -2.3% 150 173 +15.5%7 Amgen 32.6% 30.6% -1.9% 4,900 4,773 -2.6%8 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 31.7% 30.0% -1.7% 399 489 +22.7%9 AstraZeneca 29.0% 29.5% +0.5% 9,642 9,909 +2.8%

10 Biogen Idec 27.3% 28.5% +1.1% 1,288 1,437 +11.5%11 Alexion Pharmaceuticals 25.0% 28.3% +3.3% 135 221 +64.0%12 Pfizer 26.7% 27.0% +0.3% 17,885 18,217 +1.9%13 Sanofi 28.5% 26.3% -2.1% 12,229 12,242 +0.1%14 Novo Nordisk 23.7% 25.8% +2.1% 2,566 3,194 +24.5%15 Cubist Pharmaceuticals 22.3% 25.7% +3.3% 142 193 +36.2%16 Roche 23.1% 24.6% +1.5% 10,536 11,839 +12.4%17 Merck & Co 23.3% 24.3% +1.0% 10,715 11,697 +9.2%18 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 25.6% 24.2% -1.4% 4,134 4,438 +7.4%19 Shire 23.0% 24.1% +1.1% 798 1,027 +28.6%20 Orion 21.4% 22.8% +1.4% 241 291 +21.0%


Net Margin Net Income - Normalised

Global Ranking on Net Income Margin in 2011: Top 10 CompaniesSource: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

55%

36% 36% 35% 34% 32% 31% 30% 29% 28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

PDL

BioP

harm

a

Vale

ant

Phar

mac

eutic

als

Inte

rnat

iona

l

War

ner C

hilc

ott

Gile

ad S

cien

ces

Cel

gene

Viro

Phar

ma

Amge

n

Sun

Phar

mac

eutic

alIn

dust

ries

Astra

Zene

ca

Biog

en Id

ec

Net

Mar

gin

%

Measure: Net Margin A ratio measuring company profitability based on net income normalised divided by total revenue.Note: Analysis only includes companies with two consecutive years of profit and with 2011 profit in excess of $50m. Sun Pharmaceutical is based on forecast data for 2011.

PDL BioPharma Continues to be the Most Profitable Company in 2011EvaluatePharma® found that for the fourth year running PDL BioPharma achieved the highest net income (normalised) margin at 55.2% in 2011, based on a net income of $200m and royalty revenues of $352m. PDL is the first company to spin-out its R&D unit (Facet Biotech) and effectively be run as a listed royalty company, with no active R&D operations.

35

Net Income Margin in 2011: Top 20 Companies

35Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.


Products

ssalC lacigolocamrahPynapmoCemaN cireneGtcudorP 2010 2011 % Growth Age (Yrs) Technology

1 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium Pfizer + Astellas + Almirall Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 11,967 10,840 -9% 15.3 Chiral chemistry

2 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfate BMS + Sanofi Platelet aggregation inhibitor 9,148 9,654 +6% 14.3 Small molecule chemistry

3 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai Anti-TNFa MAb 6,742 8,236 +22% 9.4 Monoclonal antibody

4 Seretide/Advair fluticasone; salmeterol GSK + Almirall + Faes Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist & corticosteroid 8,063 8,233 +2% 13.7 Small molecule chemistry

5 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda TNFa inhibitor 7,257 7,892 +9% 13.6 Recombinant product

6 Remicade infliximab J&J + Merck + Mitsubishi Tanabe Anti-TNFa MAb 6,520 7,187 +10% 13.8 Monoclonal antibody

7 Crestor rosuvastatin calcium AstraZeneca + Shionogi + Chiesi

Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 6,106 7,161 +17% 9.3 Small molecule chemistry

8 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 6,113 6,790 +11% 14.5 Monoclonal antibody

9 Seroquel quetiapine fumarate AstraZeneca + Astellas 5-HT2 & dopamine D2 antagonist 5,611 6,180 +10% 14.7 Small molecule chemistry

10 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 6,214 5,984 -4% 8.3 Monoclonal antibody

11 Singulair montelukast sodium Merck + Kyorin + Sigma-Tau Leukotriene D4 antagonist 5,410 5,967 +10% 14.3 Small molecule chemistry

12 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 MAb 5,221 5,940 +14% 13.7 Monoclonal antibody

13 Diovan valsartan Novartis + Ipsen + Recordati Angiotensin II antagonist 6,134 5,737 -6% 15.7 Small molecule chemistry

14 Lantus insulin glargine Sanofi 856,4nilusnI 5,451 +17% 11.9 Recombinant product

15 Abilify aripiprazole Otsuka + Bristol-Myers 5-HT1A & D2 partial agonist & 5-HT2 antagonist 4,593 5,216 +14% 9.5 Small molecule chemistry

16 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck + Ono + Almirall DPP-IV inhibitor 3,525 5,124 +45% 5.7 Small molecule chemistry

17 Gleevec imatinib mesylate Novartis Tyrosine kinase inhibitor 4,265 4,659 +9% 11.0 Small molecule chemistry

18 Zyprexa olanzapine Eli Lilly Atypical anti-psychotic 5,026 4,622 -8% 15.7 Small molecule chemistry

19 Nexium esomeprazole magnesium AstraZeneca + Daiichi Sankyo Proton pump inhibitor 4,969 4,478 -10% 11.8 Chiral chemistry

20 Spiriva tiotropium bromide Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Long-acting muscarinic antagonist 3,799 4,389 +16% 10.0 Small molecule chemistry

21 Cymbalta duloxetine hydrochloride Eli Lilly + Shionogi 5-HT & norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor 3,491 4,245 +22% 7.8 Small molecule chemistry

22 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor 3,558 3,952 +11% 10.1 Recombinant product

23 Actos pioglitazone hydrochloride Takeda + Abbott PPAR gamma agonist 4,636 3,894 -16% 12.8 Small molecule chemistry

24 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer + Eisai Alpha 2 delta ligand 3,096 3,836 +24% 7.7 Small molecule chemistry

25 Lucentis ranibizumab Novartis + Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 2,935 3,772 +29% 5.7 Monoclonal antibody

26 Epogen/Procrit/Eprex epoetin alfa Amgen + J&J + Kyowa Hakko Kirin Erythropoietin 4,584 3,730 -19% 23.4 Recombinant product

27 Micardis telmisartan Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer Angiotensin II antagonist 3,258 3,669 +13% 13.5 Small molecule chemistry

28 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 2,416 3,657 +51% 2.4 Bioengineered vaccine

29 Copaxone glatiramer acetate Teva + Sanofi 143,3tnega SM 3,580 +7% 15.4 Small molecule chemistry

30 Blopress/Atacand candesartan cilexetil Takeda + AstraZeneca + Almirall Angiotensin II antagonist 3,279 3,490 +6% 14.5 Small molecule chemistry

31 Lexapro/Cipralex escitalopram oxalate Forest + Lundbeck + Others 264,3IRSS 3,347 -3% 8.6 Chiral chemistry

32 Atripla efavirenz; emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences NRTI & NNRTI 2,927 3,225 +10% 5.9 Small molecule chemistry

33 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 2,469 3,208 +30% 6.4 Small molecule chemistry

34 Symbicort budesonide; formoterol fumarate AstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist

& corticosteroid 2,764 3,167 +15% 11.7 Small molecule chemistry

35 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Kirin Erythropoietin 2,974 3,018 +1% 10.9 Recombinant product

36 Truvada emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead + Torii 647,2ITRN 3,001 +9% 7.8 Small molecule chemistry

37 Avapro irbesartan Sanofi + BMS + Dainippon + Shionogi Angiotensin II antagonist 3,119 2,997 -4% 14.7 Small molecule chemistry

38 Celebrex celecoxib Pfizer + Astellas COX-2 inhibitor 2,668 2,941 +10% 13.3 Small molecule chemistry

39 Lovenox enoxaparin sodium Sanofi Heparin, low molecular weight 3,724 2,938 -21% 24.4 Miscellaneous

40 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec Interferon beta 2,518 2,687 +7% 16.0 Recombinant product

41 Benicar olmesartan medoxomil Daiichi Sankyo + Forest Angiotensin II antagonist 2,487 2,602 +5% 10.0 Small molecule chemistry

42 OxyContin oxycodone hydrochloride Purdue Pharma Opioid agonist 2,400 2,600 +8% 16.5 Small molecule chemistry

43 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 2,209 2,461 +11% 8.3 Small molecule chemistry

44 Human insulin & devices insulin (human) Novo Nordisk 205,2nilusnI 2,446 -2% 89.2 Recombinant product

45 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 2,297 2,428 +6% 9.5 Small molecule chemistry

46 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk 021,2nilusnI 2,392 +13% 12.7 Recombinant product47 Humalog insulin lispro Eli Lilly 450,2nilusnI 2,368 +15% 16.0 Recombinant product48 Rebif interferon beta-1a Merck KGaA + Pfizer Interferon beta 2,214 2,354 +6% 14.4 Recombinant product

49 Velcade bortezomib Johnson + Takeda Proteasome inhibitor 1,674 2,010 +20% 8.8 Small molecule chemistry

50 Viagra sildenafil citrate Pfizer Phosphodiesterase V inhibitor 1,928 1,981 +3% 14.2 Small molecule chemistry

Total 207,190 221,736 +7% 13.6Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012)

WW Product Sales ($bn)


Lipitor Remains World's Largest Selling Product in 2011EvaluatePharma® found that despite experiencing a 9% decline in global sales, Pfizer/Astellas's Lipitor remained the top selling drug globally in 2011 with sales of $10.8bn in 2011 compared to $12.0bn in 2010. Lipitor lost US patent protection in late 2011 and will almost certainly be replaced at the top of the rankings in 2012.

36


36Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.


USA Age CompanyProduct Generic Name Company Pharmacological Class 2010 2011 % Growth (Yrs) Strategy

1 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfate Bristol-Myers Squibb + Sanofi Platelet aggregation inhibitor 6,154 6,622 +8% 14.5 In-licensed

2 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium Pfizer Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 5,329 5,003 -6% 15.5 Company acquisition

3 Seroquel quetiapine fumarate AstraZeneca 5-HT2 & dopamine D2 antagonist 3,747 4,132 +10% 14.7 Organic

4 Abilify aripiprazole Otsuka + BMS 5-HT1A & D2 partial agonist & 5-HT2 antagonist 3,606 4,006 +11% 9.5 Organic

5 Seretide/Advair fluticasone; salmeterol GlaxoSmithKline Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist & corticosteroid 4,026 3,969 -1% 11.8 Organic

6 Singulair montelukast sodium Merck & Co Leukotriene D4 antagonist 3,219 3,536 +10% 14.3 Organic7 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer TNFa inhibitor 3,304 3,458 +5% 13.6 Company acquisition8 Humira adalimumab Abbott Laboratories Anti-TNFa MAb 2,872 3,427 +19% 9.4 Company acquisition9 Remicade infliximab Johnson & Johnson Anti-TNFa MAb 3,099 3,276 +6% 13.8 Company acquisition

10 Lantus insulin glargine Sanofi 238,2nilusnI 3,251 +15% 12.1 Company acquisition

11 Cymbalta duloxetine hydrochloride Eli Lilly 5-HT & norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor 2,772 3,173 +14% 7.8 Organic

12 Actos pioglitazone hydrochloride Takeda PPAR gamma agonist 3,582 3,098 -14% 12.9 Organic13 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 2,910 3,078 +6% 14.5 Company acquisition

14 Crestor rosuvastatin calcium AstraZeneca Statin/ HMG CoA reductase inhibitor 2,640 3,074 +16% 8.8 In-licensed

15 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor 2,654 3,006 +13% 10.3 Joint venture

16 Epogen/Procrit epoetin alfa Amgen + J&J Erythropoietin 3,594 2,854 -21% 23.0

17 Copaxone glatiramer acetate Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 782,2tnega SM 2,823 +23% 15.4 In-licensed

18 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 3,068 2,649 -14% 8.3 Company acquisition19 OxyContin oxycodone hydrochloride Purdue Pharma Opioid agonist 2,400 2,600 +8% 16.5 Organic20 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck & Co DPP-IV inhibitor 2,139 2,536 +19% 5.6 Company acquisition21 Nexium esomeprazole magnesium AstraZeneca Proton pump inhibitor 2,695 2,397 -11% 11.3 Organic22 Diovan valsartan Novartis Angiotensin II antagonist 2,520 2,333 -7% 15.4 Organic23 Zyprexa olanzapine Eli Lilly Atypical anti-psychotic 2,496 2,165 -13% 15.7 Organic

24 Lexapro escitalopram oxalate Forest Laboratories Selective 5-HT (serotonin) reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) 2,300 2,131 -7% 9.8 In-licensed

25 Spiriva tiotropium bromide Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Long-acting muscarinic antagonist 1,766 2,084 +18% 8.3 Organic

26 Atripla efavirenz; emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences NRTI & NNRTI 1,909 2,022 +6% 5.9 Joint venture

27 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 1,761 1,928 +9% 2.3 Company acquisition28 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 1,432 1,830 +28% 6.4 Organic29 Lucentis ranibizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 1,402 1,722 +23% 5.9 Company acquisition30 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec Interferon beta 1,492 1,627 +9% 16.0 Organic31 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 MAb 1,530 1,608 +5% 13.7 Company acquisition32 Celebrex celecoxib Pfizer COX-2 inhibitor 1,580 1,597 +1% 13.4 Company acquisition33 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer Alpha 2 delta ligand 1,424 1,514 +6% 7.4 Company acquisition34 Gleevec imatinib mesylate Novartis Tyrosine kinase inhibitor 1,285 1,459 +14% 11.1 Organic35 Namenda memantine hydrochloride Forest Laboratories NMDA antagonist 1,300 1,400 +8% 8.6 In-licensed36 Humalog insulin lispro Eli Lilly 222,1nilusnI 1,399 +14% 16.0 Organic37 Truvada emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead Sciences 903,1ITRN 1,385 +6% 7.8 Company acquisition

38 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 1,227 1,223 -0% 9.6 Company acquisition

39 Eloxatin oxaliplatin Sanofi Platinum compound 228 1,122 +392% 9.8 In-licensed40 Gammagard Liquid immune globulin (human) Baxter International Immunoglobulin 921 1,083 +18% 7.1 Organic41 Rebif interferon beta-1a Merck KGaA Interferon beta 997 1,076 +8% 10.2 Company acquisition

42 Enoxaparin sodium enoxaparin sodium Novartis Heparin, low molecular weight (LMWH) 462 1,015 +120% 1.8 In-licensed

43 Viagra sildenafil citrate Pfizer Phosphodiesterase V inhibitor 992 1,003 +1% 14.2 Organic

44 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 957 995 +4% 8.3 In-licensed

45 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen Erythropoietin 1,103 986 -11% 10.7 Joint venture46 Niaspan niacin Abbott Laboratories 7293B nimatiV 976 +5% 14.8 Company acquisition

47 Neupogen filgrastim Amgen Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) 932 959 +3% 21.3 Joint venture

48 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk 848nilusnI 957 +13% 12.0 Organic

49 Incivek telaprevir Vertex Pharmaceuticals Hepatitis C NS3/4A protease inhibitor - 951 n/m 1.0 Organic

50 Premarin estrogens, conjugated Pfizer Oestrogen agonist 949 915 -4% 70.1 Company acquisitionTotal 106,201 113,433 +7% 12.4

Source: EvaluatePharma® (29 MAY 2012) 2010 figure from Last Year's World Preview 110,434 113,433 +3% 12.1

USA Product Sales ($bn)

Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates.EvaluatePharma® endeavours to treat the sales from patent protected new formulations of existing products as distinct entities where possible. Epogen, Aranesp, Neupogen and Neulasta developed via Kirin-Amgen joint venture.

Plavix Remains USA's No. 1 Drug in terms of SalesEvaluatePharma® found that sales of Plavix (clopidogrel), co-promoted by BMS and Sanofi in the US, increased by 8% in 2011 taking sales to $6.6bn, making it the biggest product in the US for the second year running after toppling Pfizer's Lipitor from the top spot in 2010. Plavix's US patent recently expired in May 2012 and with Lipitor already off-patent in the US, it looks like 2012 will see a new top drug emerge in the US. The total sales of the Top 50 in 2011 was $113bn, which represented a 3% increase on the $110bn achieved by the top 50 in 2010, as reported in last year's edition of the World Preview.

37


37Co

pyr

igh

t ©

201

2 Ev

alu

ateP

har

ma

Ltd

. All

rig

hts

res

erve

d.

About EvaluatePharma

EvaluatePharma offers a unique commercial perspective on the pharma and biotech business, in a user-friendly online subscription service. For industry insiders and the investment sector, EvaluatePharma and EP Vantage, our award winning news service, support value-enhancing business decisions with proprietary insight into the commercial and financial prospects of the pharma and biotech industry.

EvaluatePharma

� Product consensus forecasts to 2018, compiled from reports published by leading equity analysts

� Comprehensive pharmaceutical market analysis of listed and private companies

� In-depth company financial data, including P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, Shareholder Returns, and Financial Ratios, with five-year forecasts

� Historic sales data drawn from the most complete and reliable sources of industry data – the reporting companies themselves

� Dynamic market sizing and benchmarking

� Peer Group Analyzer and forecast trends

� NEW – Sales by Indication to 2018

� NEW – Partnering opportunities

� NEW – Clinical Trials analysis

� NEW – Venture Finance coverage

� NEW – Epidemiology data, reported by indication and by country; country pages now include economic and healthcare data sourced from the World Bank

EvaluatePharma Alpha

EvaluatePharma Alpha is a cutting-edge analysis and intelligence service for the pharma and biotech sector, helping clients to quantify market events and evaluate their impact on the valuation of products, portfolios and companies.

� Global coverage of over 3,500 consensus based product NPVs linked to share price and company valuation

� Interactive NPV Analyzer with full transparency and multiple inputs for each product

� Real time analysis with email alerts and share prices updated daily in line with NPV movements

� Calendar of Events, an unrivalled tracking tool on key events set to impact product and company valuations

� Daily news commentary and analysis from EP Vantage with key opinion leader insight and proprietary quantitative analysis

EvaluatePharma Clinical Trials

� Available as an add-on or stand-alone service, provides trusted and efficient access to multiple global clinical trial data sources

38Copyright © 2012 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved.

EvaluatePharma – EvaluatePharma Ltd., 11-29 Fashion Street, London E1 6PX United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)20 7377 0800 – Fax: +44 (0)20 7539 1801

EvaluatePharma – North America – EvaluatePharma USA, Inc., 15 Broad Street, Suite 401, Boston, MA 02109 USA

Tel: 1-617 573-9450 – Fax: 1-617 573-9542

www.evaluatepharma.com

Complimentary copies of this report can be downloaded at: www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018

All intellectual property rights in this report remain that of EvaluatePharma and/or its respective third party licensors. Whilst all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure that the data presented are accurate, EvaluatePharma Ltd cannot accept responsibility for errors or omissions. Neither does EvaluatePharma Ltd warrant the accuracy, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the data. Nothing in the reports shall constitute investment, financial or legal advice and the contents of the reports are provided for information purposes only. The data is not intended to amount to advice and should not be used as a determining factor in any investment decision. This report may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published, without the prior written consent of EvaluatePharma Ltd. Copyright © 2012 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVAL1

Since 1996, EvaluatePharma has been the premier source for pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector analysis, delivering exclusive, trusted commercial insight into industry performance through its proprietary platform. EvaluatePharma is staffed by a team of 75 dedicated healthcare analysts employing rigorous methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the most-up-to-date commercial performance data available. An award winning editorial team of journalists writing under the EP Vantage name support EvaluatePharma’s analysis, and enable the life science community to make sound business decisions about value and opportunity.

world preview 2018 embracing the patent cliff -...

Documents