world population trends - national real estate development ... · to real estate sector (us$ 1.07...
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Policy Initiatives for Rental HousingPolicy Initiatives for Rental Housing
a presentation by
V SureshHousing & Urban Development Specialist,
Principal Executive Officer, HIRCO
and Former CMD, HUDCO
Conference onConference on“Rental Housing: The Challenges and Opportunities”“Rental Housing: The Challenges and Opportunities”
Organised by NAREDCO and Ministry of HUPA
23rd September 2011
India Habitat Centre, New Delhi
9300
68836100
5667(82%)
4900(80%)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World Population TrendsWorld Population Trends
8200 (88%)
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(in millions)
Source: UN Population Division; WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS
Population Reference Bureau: WORLD POPULATION DATA SHEET
Population in and developing (lesser developed) countries to be 88% of total population by 2050
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Urbanisation Scenario in IndiaDecadal Growth Rate of Population (1991-2001) UrbanUrban: 31.13% RuralRural 17.97%
1027 M11 May, 2000,1000 M
1 March, 2001,
1350 M
361330 M
540 M(40%)
393(33%)285.35
(28%)217.61
(25.71%)
62(17%)50 M (16%)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1947 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Total Urban
Urban Explosion
� Censes of India 2011 has announced India’s population at
121 crores (more than projection given earlier )
� We are growing at the rate of 2 crores per year !
� India’s Urban population will double from 28 crores in 2001
to 56 crores in 2021
� Along with that the Challenging Development needs
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India : Million plus Cities and Urban Agglomerations - 2001Category City
10 Million+ (3) Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi
5 – 10 Million (3) Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad
3- 5 Million (2) Ahmedabad, Pune, Surat
2 – 3 Million (5) Kanpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Nagpur
1 – 2 Million (22) Patna, Indore, Vadodara, Bhopal, Coimbatore,
Ludhiana, Kochi, Visakhapatnam, Agra,
Varanasi, Madurai, Meerut, Nashik, Jabalpur,
Jamshedpur, Asansol, Dhanbad, Faridabad,
Allahabad, Amritsar, Vijayawada, Rajkot
35 million plus cities/ urban agglomerations-70 by 2021
• Cities make an important contribution to social and economic development at national and local levels.
• cities are important engines of economic growth – 70% GDP
• cities absorb two-thirds of the population growth
• cities offer significant economies of scale in the provision of jobs, housing and services
• cities are important centres of productivity and social advancement
Cities and Growth Engines
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India – Robust Economic Growth
• GDP Growth Averaged 8.1%– last 3 years
• Disposable Income – multiplied 5 times from 1995 – 2005
• 350 Million and still Growing Middle Income triggering
aspirational upward mobility
• Foreign Exchange Reserves US$ 250 billion +
Housing for All – National Priority
• Housing for All – priority area for National Agenda for
Governance
• Housing has received a big boost with quantum jump in
housing production in the last 5 years
• Housing finance at affordable interest rates – some rise
• However housing becoming beyond the reach due to input
cost of land, infrastructure and building – 50% more than
inflation
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Size of the Housing Pie
Size of the Housing Pie
1
High Income
Size of the Housing Pie
Size of the Housing Pie
1
2
High Income
Middle Income
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Size of the Housing Pie
Size of the Housing Pie
1
2
3
High Income
Middle Income
Low Income
Size of the Housing Pie
Size of the Housing Pie
1
2
3
4
High Income
Middle Income
Low Income
Weaker Sections
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• Urban Housing shortage increased from-3.60 million – 19617.00 million – 1981
16.00 million – 200122.40 million – 200726.53 million – 2012
• Massive investments of over Rs. 5,50,000 croresneeded.
Housing Needs
Growth in Institutional Finance Flows
� Institutional Finance Flows Rs. 5000 crores (1998)
to Real Estate Sector (US$ 1.07 billion)
Rs. 14100 crores (2000)
Rs. 19100 crores (2001)
Rs. 23900 crores (2002)
Rs. 42000 crores (2003)
Rs. 54000 crores (2004)
Rs. 70000 crores (2005)
Rs. 98000 crores (2006)
Rs.110000 crores (2007)
� 30% Compounded growth
� Including investment of promoters, investors and debt flows annual
investments would be Rs.1,50,000 crores (US$ 31.2 billion) (Source: NHB)
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VS
• Government Sector• Public Sector (Housing Board,
Development Authorities, etc.)• Co-operative Sector• Corporate Sector• Private Sector• Individual Sector
Housing Delivery Options
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VS
Only 1 out of 10 houses generated through Government and Public Sector initiatives
There is an imminent need for strengthening and expanding housing through other options including partnership modes
Why?
Housing Delivery Options
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VS
Rental Housing has been a major contributor to theHousing needs in Urban areas to extend of 35% to55% of the total housing depending upon the size ofthe cities:-• Small & medium towns• Metro cities • Mega cities
This is all the more conspicuous in Tier – I and II cities
Housing Options – Ownership vs Rental
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VS
Extremely popular product• UK - 40% (Council Housing, Housing
Associations, Private Sector)
• Netherlands - 55%
• Austria - 45%
• Denmark - 51%
• Germany - 60% (ex FRG + DDR)
• Sweden - 39%
Rental Housing Options – Global Trends
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VS
• Rental Housing is not developed as needed
• There is No organised Rental Housing in India
• Only – individual housing / flats being rented
• Employer driven Rental Housing
- Government Rental Housing (Central Pool / Railways / Defence / State Govt. Rental )
- Police Rental Housing
- Public Sector and Private Sector Rental Housing
Rental Housing Options
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VS
• Builder (public- private) built rental housing needed as in Europe / US. The product still not available excepting for Tenement Housing for Public done by some Public Housing Agencies or Chawls for Low Income Needs.
• Service Apartments - Late Starter but only for the super rich / MNC
Rental Housing Options –Thrust Areas Needed
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• 1BR/2BR Rental housing stock in large number needed for metro / mega cities
• This is one of the major potential area for rental housing for age group of 21 to 35 working in BPO / IT / ITES, Banking, Financial, Manufacturing and other Services sector
• Potential also for lower end of Service Apartments for young Executives with transferable jobs
• There is a large appetite from Corporates and OrganisedEmployers for providing housing for prospective employees in big cities
Rental Housing Options –Thrust Areas Needed
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VS
• There is also another demand sector – students of variousprofessional colleges and Universities (Medical,Engineering, Technology, Management, Law, etc.), wherehostel accommodation is very limited
• Residential buildings are taken and 2 to 3 packed up ineach rooms
• Similar Rental Housing for floating population cities ortourism / healthcare facility cities (short terms of 1 to 3months)
• Single working Women ( 20 to 35 yrs) need special rentalhousing with sensitive planning needs as workingWomen’s Hostel do not take care of even 30% needs
Rental Housing Options –Thrust Areas Needed
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Housing Enabling Reforms
Once Housing Property gets developed there are many inhibiting factors which discourage housing
development
• Rent Control Laws (Good for the Owner and Tenant and sufficient to cover
annual maintenance costs and assets and facility management costs)
• High Stamp Duty for registration
• Higher Levels of Annual Property Tax and Procedures
• Latest BMC provisions draconian23
Towards Towards Sustainable Sustainable and and
Balanced Housing Balanced Housing Development Development --Ownership and Ownership and
RentedRented
Thank you for your kind attentionThank you for your kind attention