world lng report-2018 -industry trends- · source: ihs, company announcements source: ihs, public...

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

World LNG Report-2018

-industry trends-

Satoshi Yoshida

General Manager, International Section,

Policy and Planning Department

Japan Gas Association


International Gas Union (IGU)

✓ Founded in 1931, Represents More Than 160 Member Organizations and

Corporations of the Global Natural Gas Industry from 90 countries

✓ Represents over 97% of Global Natural Gas Market

✓ Objectives: To Serve“As the Global Voice of Gas” and

“Seeks to Improve the Quality of Life by Advancing Gas as a Key

Contributor to a Sustainable Energy Future.”

Who we are…

2


IGU Publications2018✓ 2018 World LNG Report

✓ Whole Gas Price Survey, 2018 Edition

✓ Case study in Improving Urban Air Quality – Third Edition, March 2018

✓ Best Practices in Governance and Regulation

✓ The Importance of Methane Emissions Mitigation

✓ Social License to Operate: Case Studies

✓ Natural Gas – Fuel of choice towards clean mobility

✓ Gas People Index 2018. Workforce Development Taskforce Report

✓ Natural Gas: the essential fuel for industry in a sustainable future

and more…………………..

2017✓ The Natural Gas Industry Methane Emissions Challenge

✓ Understanding Methane’s Impact on Climate Change

✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Report 2017

✓ Natural Gas Global Insights – 2017 Edition

✓ IGU World LNG Report

✓ Enabling Clear Marine transportation, March 2017

and more…………………..

2016✓ Global Gas Markets Supporting Growth and Sustainability

✓ Case Studies Improving Air Quality, Second edition (European cities), November 2016

✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey, May 2016

✓ Case studies Enabling Clean Energies, April 2016

✓ IGU World LNG Report, April 2016

and more………………….

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2018 World LNG Report

Contents;

✓ LNG Trade

✓ Liquefaction Plants

✓ LNG Carriers (Shipping)

✓ LNG Receiving Terminals

✓ FLNG

✓ Looking Ahead

✓ Appendix

To download the full report visit; www. igu.org.

4


LNG Supply in 2017

3.7

0.3 0.0

-0.4

11.9

1.50.7 0.3

-0.4

2.9 2.80.8 0.3 0.20.2 0.10.3

-0.2

10.2

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Au

stra

lia,

56.2

US,

13.1

Qa

tar,

81

An

go

la, 3.7

Nig

eria

, 21

.3

Ma

laysi

a,

26.4

Alg

eria

, 12

.4

Bru

ne

i, 7

PN

G,

7.7

Ru

ssia

, 1

1.1

Om

an

, 8

.4

Eg

yp

t, 0

.8

Trin

ida

d,

10.8

Eq

. G

uin

ea

, 3.6

Pe

ru, 4

.1

Ye

me

n,

0

No

rwa

y, 4.1

Ind

on

esi

a, 16

.2

UA

E,

5.2

MTP

A

North America Europe FSU Latin America

• LNG supply grew 35.2 MT in 2017 and reached 293.1 MT.

• This increase was driven by higher production in Australia and US

Source: IHS, IGU

Wheatstne LNG – Courtesy Chevron

5


LNG Demand in 2017• LNG demand reached 293.1 MT.

• China accounted for over one-third of net demand growth, rising by 12.7 MTby a strong enforcement of environmental policy

-1.1

12.7

2.41.5

4.9

1.81.1 1.0 0.3

2.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.50.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

-2.5

0.3 0.2

-0.3-0.4

1.1 0.4

-0.7

0.8 0.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Chin

a,

39

.5

S.

Ko

rea,

38

.6

Pa

kis

tan

, 5

.1

Sp

ain

, 1

2.2

Turk

ey, 7.8

Fra

nce, 7

.6

Taiw

an

, 1

6.8

India

, 20

.7

Po

rtug

al, 2

.8

Ita

ly, 6

Ja

pa

n, 8

4.5

Ku

wait,

4.3

Tha

iland

, 3

.9

Mexic

o,

4.9

Gre

ece,

1.1

Po

lan

d,

1.3

Jo

rdan

, 3

.4

Neth

erlan

ds,

0.8

Bra

zil,

1.5

Mala

ysia

, 1

.4

Oth

er

, 10

.2

Malta

, 0

.3

Dom

. R

ep.,

1

Pu

ert

o R

ico, 1

Arg

en

tina

, 3.2

UA

E,

2.2

Eg

ypt,

6.2

UK

, 4.9

MT

PA

Africa Asia Asia-Pacific Europe

Source: IHS, IGU

6


LNG Exports by Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

MT

PA

North America

Europe

FSU

Latin America

Africa

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Note: FSU = Former Soviet Union

Source: IHS, IGU

• Asia Pacific region is still leading LNG export adding another 14MT totalling 113.5MT in 2017.

• The Middle East remained the clear second-place.

7


Price and “non-long term” trade

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

% S

hare

MTP

A

Non Long-Term Trade

% of Total LNG Trade(right axis)

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$/m

mB

tu

US (Henry Hub) UK (NBP)

German Border Price Japan (based on LNG)

NE Asia Spot Price

Source: IHS, Cedigaz, US DOE

Source: IHS, IGU

• Seasonal tightness in the global LNG market is very possible..

• Non long-term trade accounted for 30% of total gross LNG trade.

Monthly Average Regional Gas Prices, 2010-Jan.2018 Non Long-Term Volumes, 1995-2017

8


0

100

200

300

400

500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MT

PA

Other Qatar Australia United States

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MT

PA

Global Liquefaction Capacity% of Capacity Utilised (right axis)

Fo

recast

Liquefaction

Source: IHS, Public AnnouncementsSource: IHS, Company Announcements

• Global capacity utilisation was 84%, up 2% from 2016

• From 2017 to 2023, it is forecast to increase by 28% to 460 MTPA largely thanks to the contribution of US capacity increase

84% 360

460

Global Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out / Capacity Utilization Post-FID Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out 2017-2023

9


New Markets

Source: IHS, IGU, Public Announcements FSRU CHALLENGER – Courtesy MOL

• 45 MTPA was constructed in 2017 and reached 851MTPA.

• FSRUs have played a larger role in allowing new markets to access LNG supply.

Global Receiving Terminal Capacity, 2000-2023

10


Shipping

Source: HIS Markit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

# o

f vessels

Vessels delivered (right) Steam DFDE/TFDE

$'0

00/d

ay

• Global fleet added 24 vessels to reach 434

• Order book grew by 14, 4 of which were FSRUs.

• Charter rates averaged near-term low of $27k/day for ST and $44k/day for TFDE & DFDE.

Average LNG Spot Charter Rates versus Vessel Deliveries, 2012-2017

11


Shipping Routes

LNG Venus – Osaka Gas

Major LNG Shipping Routes, 2017

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Looking Ahead

The LNG Industry in Years Ahead

✓How Will LNG Markets Balance in 2018?

✓Will LNG Contracting and Liquefaction FIDs Take Shape This Year?

✓Could Demand in Mature Asian Markets Surprise to the Upside Again?

✓What Strategies Will Be Used to Address Emerging Markets?

✓What New Markets Will Begin Imports in 2018?

✓Will the Global LNG Market Move More Toward Commoditization or Consolidation?

✓・・・・・・

✓・・・・

✓・・

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Members of World LNG Report Task Force 2018

• Chevron, USA

• American Gas Association , USA

• Anadarko, USA

• Bureau Veritas, France

• Enagás, Spain

• ENH, Cameroon

• Gas Natural Fenosa, Spain

• GIIGNL, France

• KOGAS, South Korea

• Osaka Gas, Japan

• Toho Gas, Japan

Consultant – IHS Market

to download visit; www. igu.org14


The Japan Gas Association

Thank you

Satoshi YoshidaGeneral Manager,

International Relations, Policy and Planning Department

Japan Gas Association (Charter member of IGU)

[email protected]

world lng report-2018 -industry trends- · source: ihs, company announcements source: ihs, public...

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