Daniel KullSenior Disaster Risk Management SpecialistGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)World Bank

Brussels, 8 November, 2012

World Bank Support for Strengthening Weather and Climate Service Delivery

The challenge• Met Services’ capacity is not adequate - significant

investment needed in over 100 countries, most in Africa.• Conservative estimate of high priority investment needs =

over USD 1.5-2 billion.• Minimum USD 300-500 million per year also necessary to

support operations of modernized systems.• International support is significantly below these needs.• International support so far mostly unsuccessful:– Lack of central government understanding of value.– Poor project design (reliance on unsustainable high tech

solutions, inadequate capacity building, limited scope of investment, etc.).

– Technical complexity.– Lack of coordination between donors. 2

World Bank support to Met Services

• Shift to systematic investments in modernizing the entire weather and climate enterprise.

• Current investment exceeds USD 400 million, mostly in middle-income countries.

• New set of projects is under development and these are taking into account lessons learned. 3

Some lessons learned• Met Services’ links with clients/users are often poor.• Problems of public service in developing economies (low salary, lack

of flexibility, uncertainties).• Fundamental change in Met Services’ business model is often needed

to improve service delivery.• Building infrastructure is less challenging than building institutions,

strengthening capacity and sustaining them.• Sustainability of investment is often a major problem.• Systematic and integrated “end-to-end” approach better than “quick

wins” or partial support.• There is no universal or quick solution:

– Need for a project flexible design and long-term engagement (10 years or more).

– Need relevant long-term financial instruments.• Better coordination between donors and WB is highly desirable. 4

Typical World Bank operation

• Institutional strengthening, capacity building and implementation support.

• Modernization of observation infrastructure and forecasting.

• Enhancement of the service delivery system.• Often supported by:

– Socioeconomic benefit analysis.– Recommendations and prioritized plan of

improvement of weather and climate service delivery to national users.

– Business and investment planning.

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Project/component title Funding ($) StatusMexico: Modernizing the National Met Service to Address Variability and Climate Change in the Water Sector

105 million(IBRD)

Approved by the Board

Vietnam: Managing Natural Hazards Project, Component 2: Strengthening Weather Forecasting & Early Warning

30 million (IDA)

Appraisal

Nepal: Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards 31 million (PPCR/IDA)

Pre-appraisal

Russia: Hydromet Modernization Project – II 141.5 million (IBRD)

Pre-appraisal

Mozambique: Strengthening Hydrological & Meteorological Information Services for Climate Resilience

10-15 million (PPCR/IDA)

Preparation

Ghana: Strengthening Hydrological and Meteorological Agencies

15-25 million (IDA)

Identification

Zambia: Strengthening Climate Information System 9.5 million (PPCR/IDA)

Identification

Africa: Climate Risk Management Project 25 million Identification

Operations in the pipeline

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience

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• PPCR Goal = Mainstream climate resilience into development for transformational change

• PPCR Pledges to date: US$ 992 million

Measuring SuccessIncreased capacity to integrate climate resilience into development.Increased awareness of vulnerabilities and potential impacts.Scaled-up investments for broader interventions and programming.Improved coordination among stakeholders.Capture & transfer of lessons learned.

Measuring SuccessIncreased capacity to integrate climate resilience into development.Increased awareness of vulnerabilities and potential impacts.Scaled-up investments for broader interventions and programming.Improved coordination among stakeholders.Capture & transfer of lessons learned.

PPCR Met Service Investments

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Countries•Cambodia•Grenada•Nepal•Niger•Saint Vincent & the Grenadines•Samoa•Tajikistan •Zambia•Mozambique•Jamaica•Bolivia•Saint Lucia

Indicative funding in Met Services

(i) This excludes sums for large multi-sector projects that that do not specify amount for hydromet activity. (ii) for some programs, co-financing is still TBD.(iii) Country resource envelope: up to US$ 50 million in grants and up to US$ 36 million in concessional loans.(iv) Regional resource envelope: up to US$ 75 million in grants and up to US$ 36 million in concessional loans depending on resource availability.

PPCR

Co-financing

Nature of PPCR Met Service Investments

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GFDRR Hydromet Program• Launched by Urban, Agricultural and Water Departments

in May 2011.• Three pillars of activity:

1. Analytical Support and Knowledge Management2. Capacity Building and Technical Assistance3. Support to Portfolio Development and Operations

• Mainstream development of modern, sustainable, service-oriented weather and climate information systems into the World Bank portfolio.

• Service center providing analytical, advisory and implementation support to Bank teams and client governments.

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Some GFDRR Hydromet outputs1. Analytical support and knowledge management

– Draft Report on Natural Hazards and Climate Resilience - Global Overview.– Report on implementation of multi-hazard early warning systems.– Report on Met Service business models for service delivery.

2. Capacity building and development partnerships– Developed capacity building opportunities for World Bank staff.– Strengthened partnerships with WMO, PPCR, leading Met Services and

global forecasting centers.– Workshop on Multi-Hazards Early Warning and Decision Support Systems,

held in Shanghai with China Meteorological Administration.3. Portfolio development

– Provided main technical support for identification and preparation of weather, climate and hydrological investments in Nepal, Mozambique, Ghana, Yemen and other projects.

– Provided support for preparation and launching implementation of Met Service-related projects in Vietnam, Central Asia and Russia.

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Mozambique program

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Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR)Total: US$ 272.5 millionPPCR Grant: US$ 50.0 millionPPCR Loan: US$ 52.0 millionCo-financing: US$ 130.5 million7 projects:•Unpaved roads•Coastal cities•Transforming hydromet•Sustainable land & water management•Agricultural production and food security•Water sector credit lines•Community forest management

Transforming Hydrometeorological ServicesPPCR Grant: US$ 10 millionNordic Development Fund co-financing: Euro 4.5 million3 components:•Strengthening hydrological info systems•Strengthening weather & climate info systems •Improved delivery of weather, climate & hydrological Information & services

Climate Change Development Policy Operation (DPO)US$ 150 million, core budget support Policy Area 1: Cross Sectoral and Institutional Issues3 policy areas, 8 sectors Policy Action: Hydro-meteorological services delivery

GFDRRHydromet•Project planning•Technical support•Seed funding

GFDRR DRM•US$ 140,000 for network design•US$ 250,000 to fix radars

National Water Resources Dev. Project•Coordination•Planning support•US$ 70 million IDA credit

Recommendations• Understand Met Service and government commitment upfront.• Central Government must recognize that any proposed

modernization must come with increased annual budget.• Assessment of affordability of operations and maintenance costs

is one of primary criteria for new system design.• Analytical work helps to attract attention of decision makers,

identification of priorities and build support among stakeholders.• Integrate Met Service modernization in broader sectoral

initiatives.• Modernization is a major project for management and might be

risky for agency leaders.• Improve service delivery – a key for long-term sustainability.

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Thank You

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