world bank / institute briefing – january, 2004 investigators: david b. hannaway professor of crop...

World Bank / Institute Briefing – January, 2004

Investigators:David B. HannawayProfessor of Crop ScienceForage Information System Oregon State University

Christopher DalyProfessor of Geosciences Spatial Climate Analysis ServiceOregon State University

Using Spatial Analysis and Modelingto Assist WB Programs for Integrated Ecosystems

and Natural Resource Management

Alan CooperIPM Specialist Co-Principal ANE-Asia

Dave MouatResearch Professor Earth & Ecosystem Sci.Desert Research Institute

Terry RaheSoil Scientist, PresidentCascade Earth SciencesValmont Irrigation Div.

Roger KraynickConsulting EconomistCo-Principal ANE-Asia


How we got here 20+ years of collaboration with PRC

Extensive international experience

Briefing idea from the WB / WBI sponsored grassland workshop in Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China (breakout theme groups identified the need for geospatial analysis for developing sustainable system solutions)

“Strategies and Policies for Sustainable Grassland & Livestock

Management Systems”


Common objectives for developing sustainable systems

The World Bank • Working to make development sustainable. • Ensuring that actions taken today to promote development and

reduce poverty do not result in environmental degradation or social exclusion tomorrow.

Our Group• For agriculture and natural resource management ….

seeking to utilize plant, animal, soil, and water resources in the most-productive, yet non-damaging manner.

Together• Identifying and working within the biophysical and socio-

economic constraints to optimize sustainable use of natural resources for the benefit of people.


Purpose: Discuss our philosophy and capabilities which involve

spatial and integrated solutions to solve sustainability problems.

Present ideas for collaboration with World Bank programs and projects.

How do we:Adapt?

Modify? Magnify?

Substitute?Rearrange?Combine?


Outline:• Principal issues and concerns• Philosophy of a spatial, integrated approach• Elements of approach• PRC example• Collaboration potentials• Demonstration projects • Summary


Principal issues and concerns

China is acutely aware of land degradation - occurring as a result of non-sustainable resource development, especially in the arid and semiarid west and northwest


Approach philosophyNew technologies can help develop and implement sustainable management strategies by defining:

• the biophysical state and potential of regions • the suitability of various crop and livestock systems

• the socio-economic viability of these systems

To implement this philosophy: We integrate geospatial data products for climate, soils, and

plant species suitability with decision support tools and futures assessment to solve sustainability problems.


Planning for the future What are the future consequences of today’s policies and

land use decisions?

How might we plan for a sustainable future?

What might those future landscapes look like and what are the impacts of the futures on societal values?

Are there futures that will result in a greater likelihood of land use sustainability?

How might we achieve them?

What should the roles of the communities and other local stakeholders be in terms of envisioning these futures?


Planning for the future

AFA Graphic


Elements of approach Mapping of topography, climate, and soils

precipitation, temperature pH, depth, drainage, salinity, alkalinity

Species suitability mapping quantitative tolerances to biophysical factors intended use and management level use of internet map server to define tolerances

Validation expert evaluation field testing

Socio-economic factors exploring spatial economic analysis alternative futures scenarios (community input)

Delivery systems and DSS web-based and knowledge-based target audience including land managers and policy makers

Professional development / capacity building students and professionals exchange programs


An example: … grass species suitability mapping in the PRC

Oregon State University and Chinese cooperators: identifying suitability zones for selected forage, soil conservation, and turf species.

This has involved… • Cooperation with governments, universities, agencies, and

organizations• Finding and assembling necessary data• Creating GIS layers• Combining spatial data layers according to

quantitative species tolerance “rules”


Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Digital Elevation Model (GTOPO 30, 1 km resolution)


• Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters

• Moving-window regression of climate vs. elevation for each grid cell Uses nearby station observations

• Spatial climate knowledge base (KBS) weights stations in the regression function by their climatological similarity to the target grid cell

Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: PRISM-based Climate Maps

PRISM: Unique climate modeling software

Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model


PRISM knowledge based system accounts for spatial variations in climate due to:

Elevation (digital elevation grid) Terrain orientation (topographic facet grid) Terrain steepness (terrain profile grid) Moisture regime (storm trajectory grid) Coastal proximity (coastal trajectory grid) Inversion layer (inversion height grid) Long-term climate patterns (climate grid)

PRISM:

Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model


PRISM Moving-Window Regression Function

Target grid cell

Stations


Official 1961-90 Precipitation Maps for the USDA NRCS

Seamless coverage

Each state peer-reviewed

Used in thousands of applications


SCAS International Climate Mapping

Western Canada

Pacific Basin

China

Taiwan

Mongolia

European Alps

All maps are state-of-the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other methods


Data from climate stations:• Precipitation (monthly and annual)• Temperature (monthly and annual

minimum and maximum)• Others

Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: PRISM-based climate; 4 km grid cell resolution

Development sequence:• 30-year mean climatology• Monthly time series• Daily mapping

Example applications:• Degree-Day/Growing season• Growth/development models• Water supply • Climate trends and variability

2,600 stations


Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Mean Annual Precipitation


Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: January Mean Minimum Temperature


Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: July Mean Maximum Temperature


Data from most recent soil survey via cooperation with CAAS-SFI in Beijing

National surveys and mapping are 1:4,000,000

CAS Soils Institute in Nanjing is completing 1:1,000,000 scale

Challenge of different systems (Chinese, Russian, FAO, USA)

USA national and county digital soil surveys (STATSGO and SSURGO) are 1:250,000 and 1:24,000 scale

CAAS Soil & Fertilizer Institute

http://www.ftw.nrcs.usda.gov/order.html

Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Soil Maps


Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Soil pH


Historical qualitative, static approach.

Species suitability mapping:Species Tolerances Database

Traditional approach has been qualitative

Need quantitative approach to work with spatial data layers and integrate with crop simulation models

Initial estimates have been developed and mapped (USA first, then PRC)

Internet Map Server for web-based improvements via “dynamic mapping”

Current quantitative, dynamic approach.


Species Max. Temp(°C)

Min. Temp.(°C)

Annual Precipitation(mm)

Well Adapted

Tall Fescue 22 - 32 -10 625

Orchardgrass 22 - 31 -7.5 625

Perennial Ryegrass 22 - 30 -5 625

Moderately Adapted

Tall Fescue 20 - 34 -15 450

Orchardgrass 20 - 33 -12.5 490


Marginally Adapted

Tall Fescue 18 - 36 -20 300

Orchardgrass 18 – 35 -17.5 375


Species suitability mapping: Quantitative Climate Tolerances


Species suitability mapping: Internet Map Serverhttp://mistral.coas.oregonstate.edu/forages/


Species suitability mapping: Festuca arundinacea


Species suitability mapping: Gansu Province Annual Precipitation


Species suitability mapping: Gansu Province - Festuca arundinacea

(based solely on climate; rainfall and temperature)


Validate with field-based evaluation trials Link advanced technologies with traditional approaches Enlist local experts to assist with concept development,

implementation, and validation

Validation


Choices made by people, communities, societies related to: Demographics Societal values Land-use practices Land tenure issues Financial income and risk Distribution of income and wealth

Socio-economic factors


Purpose: to enable users to assess tradeoffs between:

Private Economic Decisions only vs. Joint Private – Public Planning

(without planning/management) (with participatory management)

Criteria:

a. Demographic choices (stay in grazing or opt out)

b. Land tenure (develop clear assignment of grazing rights; e.g. USA Taylor Grazing Act)

c. Assess alternative financial outcomes (high risk or moderate to low risk)

d. Improving social qualities of region (poorly distributed incomes and poverty vs. more equitable distribution of non-degraded resources and higher total incomes)

Economic and social assessment component


Individual pieces are important, nevertheless:

• For truly helpful product, these pieces need to be integrated into an easy-to-use Decision Support System

• Web-based DSS provide easy access in an efficient delivery tool for farmers and policy makers leading to sustainable systems

Delivery systems and DSS : Web Segment


Professional development / capacity building: Extension and Student Education Programs

Team and capacity building:• Computer infrastructure• Conferences & workshops• Visiting scholars• Collaborative research projects• Degree programs• Scientific exchange programs

Short-term (weeks to months) Long-term (months to years)


Collaboration potentials• UNCCD / CCICCD

• USTDA / SFA

• Pastoral Development (GEF / WB)

• Gansu Demonstration Project

• Other regions and countries

Gansu Desert Control Research Institute

SE Asia: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, ThailandAsia: Afghanistan, India, Iraq


Related projects:

Title: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

Description:

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as “land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry subhumid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities…”

The UNCCD further suggests that “combating desertification includes activities that are part of the integrated development of

lands in those areas for sustainable development.”


Related projects:

Title: China’s CCICCD

Description:

China’s Committee for the Implementation of the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCICCD), which is housed within China’s State Forestry Department, is one of the more active National programs within the Convention.

Indeed, the Convention looks to the CCICCD for both guidance as well as evidence of effectiveness in carrying out the program of the Convention.


Related projects: USTDA / SFA, Inner Mongolia

Title: Controlling sandstorms and desertification in areas surrounding Beijing using irrigated agriculture

Description:This project demonstrates that vast areas of sandy lands can be allowed to recover naturally if a small percentage of the area is managed under modern irrigated agriculture. This practice limits overgrazing of the native grasslands and provides a sustainable source of forage for livestock production, decreases soil erosion and desertification, and reduces dust storms.

Cooperators:• US Trade Development Agency• Valmont Industries, CES, OSU• PRC State Forestry Administration


Relevance to World Bank / World Bank Institute Sustainable development programs require information

about biophysical constraints and socio-economic issues.

• Geospatial data layers are needed, integrated into Decision Support Systems (point-based information is not adequate).

• Climate is fundamental (the PRISM climate modeling system).

• Soils information must be globally interchangeable.

• Species environmental tolerances must be quantitative.

• Economic information must be linked to appropriate production models.

• Societal issues are addressed within community-based planning and implementation.

• International collaboration is essential.

• Participatory management of natural resources must be holistic and integrated.

“Reversing land degradation and alleviating poverty go hand in hand. Both involve improving food security, educating and training people, strengthening the capacity of local communities, and mobilizing non-governmental organizations.” UNCCD


Demonstration projects Designed to:

• Build local knowledge and capacity

• Involve community, local, and regional input

• Plan for the future using alternative futures methodology

• Create decision support tools for policy development and management strategies involving spatially-based models

• Implement efficient and sustainable forage/livestock production systems

• Increase productivity and decrease poverty

• Extend successes to other communities


Demonstration projects Example:• Local collaborators: e.g. Gansu Desert

Control Research Institute, Gansu Agricultural University, CAS’ Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute

• Representative range / pastoral study area

• Compilation, assessment, and integration of spatial information to identify appropriate crop / range species and carbon sequestration

• Appropriate irrigation strategies

• Community, local, regional input for alternative future scenarios and land-use options

• Use of user-friendly decision support tools for building local capacity


Many National, Regional, and International ‘Players’


Future Vision • Creating “the best maps” for climate, soil, species, economics,

and social factors.

• Developing “alternative futures” scenarios that illustrate medium-term and long-term consequences of action or non-action.

• Integrating these maps and alternative future scenarios into a web-based Decision Support System that is scientifically accurate, up-to-date, and easy-to-use.

• Working together globally to accomplish these objectives to ensure greater efficiency and greater understanding of each other around the world.

Alternative Futures: Decisions to Influence the Future Must Come Now


Summary Philosophy of a spatial, integrated approach:

New technologies can help develop and implement sustainable management strategies.

Elements of approach Alternative futures Mapping of topography, climate, and soils Species suitability mapping Validation Socio-economic factors Delivery systems and DSS Professional development / capacity building

PRC example Grass species suitability mapping

Collaboration potential UNCCD/CCICCD; USTDA / Valmont; Pastoral Development

Demonstration project WB / WBI, Gansu Province, PRC SFA, and other cooperators

world bank / institute briefing – january, 2004 investigators: david b. hannaway professor of crop...

Documents

world bank institute

world bank programs

sustainable systems

development sustainable

northwest slide

principal issues

livestock systems

concerns philosophy