Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No. 4644-BA

BURMA

IRRIGATION SECTOR REVIEW

July 1983

South Asia Projects DepartmentIrrigation T Division

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CIJRRENCY EQUIVALENT

Kyats 7.30 = US$1.00 (approximate)

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 Basket of Paddy = 46.0 lbs = 20.9 kg1 [Milliard 1000 M cu Metres = 0.81 M ac ft

FISCAL YEAR

October 1 - September 20: up to September 1973October 1, 1973 - March 31, 1974April 1 - March 31: from April 1974

PRINCIPAL ACRONYMS USED

AC - Agricultural CorporationAFPTC - Agricultural Food Produce Trading CorporationAMD - Agricultural Mechanization DepartmentARI - Agricultural Researcht InstituteCIDA - Canadian International Development AgencyEPC - Electric Power CorporationFFYP - Fourth Four Year PlanGOB - GoVernment of BurmaHYVs - High Yielding VarietiesID - Irrigation DepartmentIRRI - International Rice Research InstituteMAB - Myanma Agricultural BankMAI - Moisture Availability IndexMW - Mega Watt:na - Not AvailableRRD - Regional Research DivisionSFYP - Second Four Year PlanTFYP - Third Four Year PlanTSP - Triple Stuper PhosphateVEM - Village Extension ManagerVLC - Village Land CommitteeWTRPP - lWhole Tovsnship Rice Production Program

Glossary

Myaunggaung - Farmiers' irrigation representativeKaing land - Lanc.s between the river levees,, exposed as the

flood recedesYa land - Non-padcly uland land.

BURMA

IRRIGATION SECTOR REVIEW

Table of Contents

Page No.I. INTRODUCTION

General Background 1Agricultural Performance 3The Irrigation Sector 4Irrigation Development and the Role of IDA

and Other Donors 5Purpose of Irrigation Sector Review 7

II. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE AND ITS SETTING

The Physical Setting 8Climate 9Land Use, Land Ownership and Land Tenure 10The Agricultural Setting 12Crop Production 14Agricultural Institutions and Supporting Services 19

III. IRRIGATION AND FLOOD PROTECTION DEVELOPMENT

Past Irrigation Development 24Past Flood Protection and Drainage Development 28Planning for Future Development 29Multi-Purpose Storage Projects 31Single-Purpose Irrigation Storage Projects 35Run-of-the-River and Major Pump Diversion Schemes 36Groundwater Development 38Land Reclamation, Flood Protection and Drainage 39Private and Communal Irrigation Programs 41

IV. SELECTED ISSUES IN IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT

Strengthening the Irrigation Department 44Budgetary Allocations for Operation and Maintenance 47Modernization of Irrigation Systems 49Operational Issues 50The Impact on Paddy Production 52Crop Diversification in Irrigated Areas 55

This report was prepared by D.J.W. Berkoff, South Asia Projects Department,following his participation in the 1981 Economic Mission to Burma.

Page No.V. PRIORITIES FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

General Strategy 57The Scale and Composition of the Investmient

Program 58Planning and Data Collection 61

ANNEX A. SUPPORTING TA]3LES

Table A.1 Mean Temperature and Mean Precipitation atSelected Locations 64

Table A.2 Moisture Availability Index: Selected Locations 65Table A.3 Trends in Irrigated and Total Sown Areas 66Table A.4 Paddy: Trend; in Sown Area, Harvested Area,

Yields and Production 67Table A.5 Paddy: Areas and Yields, by Divisions, by

Varieties and by Year 68Table A.6 Overall Proportion of Gross Sown Area under

Eleven Major Crops: by Division, 1977/78 69Table A.7 Areas under Multiple Cropping: 1979/80 70Table A.8 Trends in Irrigated Area by Crop 71Table A.9 Irrigable AreaL by Means of Irrigation and by

Division and. StaLte: 1977/78 72Table A.10 Irrigation Department Budget: Recurrent and

Capital Expenditures 1971/72 - 1980/81 andProjections for Committed Projects 1981/82 - 1985/86 73

Table A.11 Paddy Supply Projections: 1979/80 - 1999/2000 74Table A.12 Rice Balance Projections: 1979/80 - 1999/2000 75

ANNEX B IRRIGATION PROJECTS OPERATED OR PROPOSED BY IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT

Table B.1 Diversion Projects 79Table B.2 Dam and Reservoir Projects 80Table B.3 Pump and Groundwater Projects 83Table B.4 Flood Protection and Drainage Projects 84

P R E F A C E

This paper, completed in September 1982, was prepared in orderto help provide a framework for evolving IDA's lending to the irriga-tion sector in Burma. Since it provides substantial basic informationon the sector, it was felt that wider circulation within the Bank andin Burma would be useful.

I

BURMA

IRRIGATION- SECTOR-REVIEW

I. INTRODUCTION

General Background

1.01 Burma's territory extends over about 260,000 sq miles (675,000sq km). Some 27% of the land (45 M acres) is considered arable although onlyabout 12% (29 M acres) is currently cultivated in any one year. The popula-tion is estimated at approximately 35 M (1982) and has risen steadily since1960 at about 2.25% p.a. The density of population is low by Asian standardsaveraging only about 130 per sq mile. 1/ Almost 75% of the total populationlives in rural areas and the economy remains heavily dependent on agricul-ture. Adult literacy is almost 70% and, in general, social indicators forBurma are favorable relative to other Asian countries at its stage ofdevelopment.

1.02 Despite its considerable natural resource base, favorable man-landratio, and social progress, GNP per capita at about US$160 remains among thelowest in the world and economic performance during the last twenty yearshas been mixed. During the 1960s and early 1970s, increases in value addedin the directly productive sectors barely kept pace with population, exportvolumes declined and the consequent restrictions on the country's ability toimport led to under-utilization of capacity in most sectors and to furthersevere limits on expansion. Faced with this unsatisfactory performance, GOBinitiated a number of reforms in the mid-1970s designed to restore momentumto the economy. While retaining the general philosophy that has guided itsactions since it came to power in 1961, 2/ the Government neverthelesscautiously liberalised its economic approach and opened up the economy toincreased - if still fairly modest - foreign assistance and capital. Amongthe major reforms undertaken were a currency devaluation; tax reformsdesigned to increase public sector resource mobilization; higher interestrates to encourage efficient use of Government resources and stimulateprivate savings; a reorganization of the banking system; reforms in the StateEconomic Enterprises designed to establish their operations on a commer-cialy-orientated basis; selective but substantial increases in agricultural

1/ Comparable figures for other Asian countries include: Indonesia, 200 persq mile; Thailand, 240 per sq mile; India, 540 per sq mile; andBangladesh, 1,650 per sq mile.

2/ The Burmese Way to Socialism, based on a blending of traditional Burmesevalues and socialist doctrines which aims to reorientate the economy tothe provision of basic necessities and social services.

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procurement prices; and the launching of the Whole Township Rice ProductionProgram (WTRPP), a major new program designed to increasE! paddy yields.

1.03 These reforms have proved generally successful. GDP increased atabout 5.0% p.a. during the Second Four Year Plan (SFYP, 1975-78), I/ and atan estimated 6.7% p.a. during the first three years of the third plan period(TFYP, 1979-82), compared to only 2.2% p.a. between 1961-74. Increases inagricultural value-added played an important role in this improvement and,while weather conditions were generally favorable, the successes in theagricultural sector were undoubtedly largely attributable to the newly estab-lished production programs. A, major contribution to economic expansion wasalso made during the SFYP by a doubling of gross capital formation, with afurther 70% increase during the first three years of the TFYP. While muchof this investment was financed by growing recourse to foreign borrowing andassistance, domestic savings and exports have also increased markedly. Rapidgrowth has been achieved without significant inflation although pricestability is to a significant extent attributable to the Government's controlover administered prices.

1.04 Burma's recent economic performance provides grounds for optimismabout the future. Guidelines 2/ issued for the preparation of the FourthFour Year Plan (FFYP, 1983-86), to be launched shortly, suggest that thepolicy reforms initiated in the mid-1970s will be maintained. Theguidelines establish a target growth in GDP of 6% p.a. and the donor com-munity will be called upon to continue, and possibly increase, its supportfor an expanding investment program. Recent Bank reports have generallyendorsed this strategy while emphasizing the crucial need to improve Burma'sabsorptive capacity. The economic report recently completed 3/ reviews thepolicies and programs need-ad to sustain growth in the medium and longerterms, devoting one chapter to long-term infrastructural developments.Irrigation is one of the sectors covered, and the isslues discussed there areamplified further in this sector review.

-1/ Dates are expressed in terns of the Burmese fisca:L year, April 1 - March31.

2/ "Guidelines for the Fourth Four Year Plan adopted at the Fourth PartyCongress of the Burma Socialist Programme Party", Extracts, undated.

3/ "Burma: Priorities for Continued Growth", Report No. 3852-BA, May 7,1982.

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Agricultural Performance

1.05 The agricultural sector i/ continues to dominate Burma's economy,accounting directly for about 45% of GDP, 65% of the labor force and 80% oftotal exports in 1980/81. In addition, probably more than 60% of value addedin the trade, processing and manufacturing sectors can indirectly beattributed to agriculture. Paddy remains by far the most important crop,accounting for 50-55% of the gross planted area (about 50% in rainfed areas,70-75% in irrigated areas). Other important crops include oilseeds, notablysesame and groundnuts (17% of gross planted area), pulses (7%), the so-calledindustrial crops, cotton, jute and rubber (4%), and sugarcane and tobacco(2%).

1.06 In common with other sectors of the economy, agriculturalvalue-added grew slowly in the 1960s and early 1970s, averaging little morethan 2% p.a. Since 1975/76, however, the agricultural sector has undergonea remarkable transformation. Paddy production increased by an estimated 55%between 1974/75 - 80/81, and value-added in the sector as a whole rose atabout 6.7% p.a. in real terms (7.2% p.a. excluding livestock, forestry andfisheries). The area under paddy remained broadly constant, and the increasein rice production can be attributed almost entirely to higher yields asadvantage was taken of the opportunity created in the early 1970s by thedevelopment of high yielding varieties (HYVs) adapted to Burmese conditions.The Whole Township Program has recently been extended to other crops, includ-ing groundnuts, maize, wheat, sesamum, cotton, beans and pulses, and produc-tion increases for most of these have also been significant.

I/ Including livestock, forestry and fisheries which together account forabout 8-9% of GDP at current prices.

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1.07 Despite considerable further potential, 1/ paddy yields willinevitably rise more slowly in future now that the most obvious yield oppor-tunities have been exploited and given that further extension of the WTRPPinto less productive regions will inevitably encounter diminishing returns.Opportunities exist in the paddy sector for extending the area under cultiva-tion through, for instance, low cost rehabilitation and land reclamationprograms, and there is also potential for further intensification on existinglands. Nevertheless, if a relatively rapid rate of growth in agriculture isto be achieved, efforts in the paddy sector will need to be complemented bythe fulfillment of goals for other major crops and activities. The extensionof the Whole Township Program to other crops should lead to yield increases,in particular for maize and wheat (for which suitable HYV technologies areavailable) and for oilseeds (to be supported by a major USAID program). Thepotential for industrial crops such as cotton is also substantial althoughthey face technical problems, for instance in the area of pest control, thattend to be more intractable than those facing paddy. Further diversificationthrough increased production of horticultural crops, tree crops, livestockand fisheries may take more time while, for all agricultural activities,effective transport and storage facilities will need to be developed toaccommodate increased production.

The Irrigation Sector

1.08 Irrigation to date has played a fairly limited role in Burma'sagricultural development. Only 12.5% (2.6 M acres) of the net area undercropping receives some form of irrigation and of this only about 15% is

1/ In 1979, the average yield in Burma was 2.1 tons/ha. For neighboringcountries, average yields wrere: Thailand, 1.9 tons/ha; Bangladesh, 1.9tons/ha; Malaysia, 2.9 tons/ha; Indonesia, 3.0 tons/ha; Philippines, 2.0tons/ha. Yields in Burma are officially estimated to have increased to2.7 tons/ha in 1980/81 and 2.9 tons/ha in 1981/82, implying that they arenow probably above those obtained in some other comparable neighboringcountries. However, production in many other Asian countries has alsorisen relatively rapidly in. recent years and, for instance, Thailand'sexport surplus has increased from about one million tons in the early1970s to about three million tons, while several other countries, includ-ing India, Sri Lanka and the Philippines have reached, or are approach-ing, self-sufficiency.

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double cropped, 1/ these ratios being among the lowest in Asia. Most exist-ing Government schemes are based on tributaries of the Irrawaddy, beingdiversion systems designed to provide security to the main season rice crop.A few storage schemes also exist and a number of others are under construc-tion. Small scale private and cooperative diversion and, to a lesser extent,tank schemes account for a combined area almost as extensive as that underGovernment control, being widely dispersed, especially in the more hillyareas. Low lift pumps, also mainly in the cooperative and private sectors,have played a subsidiary but increasingly important role.

1.09 Probably of greater importance historically than irrigation has beenthe provision of flood control and drainage facilities, especially in theIrrawaddy and Sittang delta areas. Through the reclamation of previouslyinundated lands, these facilities largely accounted for the ten-fold increasebetween 1855 and 1940 in the paddy area of Lower Burma (from about 0.4 Macres to 4.0 M acres). Although they suffered extensive damage during theSecond World War and thereafter, many of these facilities have been, or arebeing, rehabilitated and about 13.5% (2.7 M acres) of Burma's total netcropped area currently receives protection. A small proportion of this areais also irrigated from low lift pumps.

1.10 While the past role of irrigation has been limited, its potentialfor contributing to future increases in agricultural production is theoreti-cally substantial. Burma's rainfall pattern is highly seasonal and, withoutirrigation, overall cropping intensities are low. In Lower Burma they canreach 130-140% since cropping on residual moisture sometimes follows a fullmain season paddy crop. However, in Upper Burma they average no more than70-80% since even during the monsoon season rainfall can be inadequate for afull crop. Besides restricting crop areas, variable rainfall and poor watercontrol also result in water stress on growing crops (especially in UpperBurma) and flooding (especially in Lower Burma), and as much as 10% of thesown area is commonly destroyed. Since only a small fraction of the waterflowing in Burma's rivers is currently tapped for irrigation, there isclearly major potential for increased cropping during the dry season and forsecuring a full main season crop. Expansion of the cultivated area can alsobe envisaged in association with irrigation and, more particularly, floodprotection facilities.

Irrigation Development and the Role of IDA and Other Donors

1.11 The economic reforms of the mid-1970s gave higher priority to theagricultural sector, and in line with this GOB has made progress inaccelerating the pace of irrigation development. In particular, a greater

1/ This, however, excludes substantial areas in the delta which are doublecropped but which receive irrigation only during the dry season.

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willingness to accept foreign assistance has increased substantially theresources available for irrigation projects, and a number of major newprograms have been launched or are under consideration. These include com-bined flood protection, land reclamation and pump irrigation programs in thedelta: major storage-cum-irrigaticn projects on principal tributaries ofthe Irrawaddy, Sittang and Salween; tank projects on lesser tributaries andrivers; Government pump schemes; run-of-the-river diversion schemes;groundwater projects; and rehabilitation programs for existing schemes.Feasibility studies and investigations are under way in most oE these areas,and a wide range of further projects can be envisaged. Hydro-electricdevelopment is an important, and in some cases the principal, component ofthe major storage projects, while these and other projects can also haveimplications for other sectors incLiding transport, fisheries and town watersupply.

1.12 IDA has been closely involved in the accelerated activity in theirrigation sector. The first project approved following the recommencementof borrowing from the Bank Group in 1973 was an irrigation project (Cr.483-BA, $17 M) which was complet:ed :Ln 1980. This project financed some13,000 low-lift pumps for sale to farmers, as well as rehabilitation of minorflood embankments in the delta area,, equipment repair and feasibilitystudies. This was followed by two ]?addylands Projects (Cr. 642-BA, $30 M andCr. 835-BA, $34.5 M) which are financing flood protection works in the deltaarea together with some pump irrigation and associated activities. The mostrecent project approved in the sector was a multipurpose hydro and irrigationdevelopment project on the Panlaung river in Central Burma (Nyaunggyat Dam,now renamed Kinda Dam, Cr. 1031--BA, $90 M). Projects under consideration forthe future include a medium-scale tank project (recently appraised); furtherland reclamation and drainage projects (being prepared in the context of anoverall hydrological study of the delta area); a groundwater project (beinginvestigated in the context of a. UNDP-financed groundwater investigationsprogram for which the Bank is executing agency); an area development and pumpirrigation project (Henzada, for which a UNDP-financed feasibility study hasbeen completed); and an irrigation rehabilitation and maintenance project forexisting systems.

1.13 Other donors have also been active. West Germany, Norway andJapan are providing cofinancing for the IDA Kinda (Nyaunggyat) Dam project.The ADB has financed a comparable multi-purpose project, also in CentralBurma, (Sedawgyi, Loan Nos. 266-BUR(SF), $45.9 M, and 395-BUR(SF), $14.6 M)and followed this with a pump irrigation and area development project forsmall scale projects along the banks of the Irrawaddy (Loan No. 515-BUR(SF),$20 M) with cofinancing by the EEC ($6 M). Australia is assisting construc-tion of the Mobye irrigation project below the existing LawpitaHydro-electric Dam. Japan has been active in financing planning studies forthe Prome and northern delta areas (South Nawin, and the Irrawaddy BasinIntegrated Agricultural Development projects) and has provided finance for

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the final designs of South Nawin for which it may also provide capital assis-tance. Finally, over the years, UNDP have financed a number of planning andwater resource development studies, in particular for the Mu and SittangRiver basins.

Purpose of the Irrigation Sector Review

1.14 The extent to which the irrigation development program can befurther expanded will depend on the resources to be made available to thesector (in turn a reflection of the social, political and economic priorityto be attached to irrigation) and on the implementation capacity of theIrrigation Department and other Government institutions. Both these con-straints are likely to prove fairly restrictive over the next decade, andit is therefore important to review priorities carefully so as to ensure that- within these constraints -- the best possible irrigation developmentprogram is adopted. The large number of possible projects, the alternativemodes of irrigation development, and the varying conditions that exist indifferent parts of the country, combine to suggest not only that there is awide range of choice but also that returns from different irrigation projectscould vary considerably. Socio-political priorities and on-going commitmentswill inevitably limit the extent to which the program can be modified.Nevertheless, as far as possible, alternatives should be investigated andevaluated in a consistent fashion to ensure that technical and economiccriteria are also fully taken into account.

1.15 This irrigation sector review has been prepared to help clarifythe issues involved. Its major objectives are: (i) to describe the presentstate of irrigation and flood protection development in Burma, placing thisin the context of overall agricultural sector issues, (ii) to review alterna-tive modes of irrigation and flood protection development, (iii) to discussselected institutional, operational and agricultural issues that might affectthe scale of future development, and (iv) to recommend general priorities forthe future, in particular with a view to supporting the Bank's lendingprogram in the sector. Where possible, conclusions are drawn and recommenda-tions are made. Nevertheless, the Review's limitations need to be recog-nized. Information on the sector is relatively limited and the Bank'sexperience in Burma has been considerably less long-standing than in manyneighboring countries. The Review itself was prepared by an agriculturaleconomist following his participation in the 1981 economic mission and tech-nical aspects are given relatively limited treatment. It is hoped neverthe-less that it will contribute to the on-going dialogue with the Burmeseauthorities on the sector, and that it will help establish priorities for thefurther investigations and studies that will be required in the future.

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II. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE AND ITS SETTING

The Physical Setting

2.01 Burma can be divided into five broad physiographic regions: 1/ theShan Plateau, the Northern and Western folded hills, the Central Belt, thecoastal strips of the Arakan and Tenasserim, and the hills and ridges of theTenasserim Yoma (see Map). Economic development has been concentrated in thebroad alluvial plains of the Central Belt, which comprises the basin of themiddle and lower Irrawaddy, the lower reaches of its principal tributary theChindwin, the Sittang basin, the Irrawaddy and Sittang deltas and the moun-tains of the Pegu Yoma which form the divide between the lower Irrawaddy andthe Sittang valleys. Besides this physiographic classification, the CentralBelt falls into two major climatic sub-divisions, the Central Dry Zone of themiddle Irrawaddy Valley ancd the higher rainfall areas of the deltaic region.

2.02 The north-south dire!ction of its mountain ranges in reflected inthe direction of flow of its major rivers. The principal river system isthat of the Irrawaddy and the Chindwin. These are wholly Burmese rivers,draining an area of about 160,000 sq miles or 60% of the nation's territory.The mean annual flow of the Irrawaddy at Prome is about 12,700 cu m/secondwith an annual discharge equal to about 400 milliards (400,000 M cu m or 325M acre ft).2/ It rises in the far north and, from the confluence of its twomain headstreams above Myitkyina (the Nmai Hka and the Mali Hka), flowsthrough a series of alluvial basins and narrow defiles before entering thebroad flat plains of the middle Irrawaddy valley. Above Pakkoku it is joinedby the Chindwin which enters the central plains northwest of Monywa aftera long and tortuous journey from its origins in the northern and westernhills. Below its confluence with the Chindwin, the Irrawaddy valley narrowsand between Magwe and Prome the outliers of the Arakan and Pegu Yomas leaveonly a narrow stretch of land for cultivation. Below Prome the river widensand south of Myanaung enters the flat lands of the delta. Two major dis-tributaries take off from the main stream above Henzada (the Bassein to thewest and the Hlaing to the east) and thereafter the river divides andredivides before entering the sea through a mesh of tidal creeks. TheIrrawaddy is navigable throughouat the year as far as Bhamo (about 800 miles)and constitutes the great waterway of Burma.

1/ Nafis Ahmad: "Economic Resources of the Union of Burma", US Army Techni-cal Report No. 71-61-ES,, May 1971, on which much of this section isbased.

2/ Comparable figures for other major river include: the Ganges- Bramaputa,800 M acre ft; the Indus, 180 M acre ft; and the Nile, 80 M acre ft.

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2.03 The Sittang is also a wholly Burmese river. It is thought torepresent the original alignment of the Irrawaddy before the latter was'captured' by the Chindwin, probably following the uplift of the Pegu Yoma.It rises in the hills on the fringe of the Shan Plateau in Yamethin district,and flows south for about 350 miles before entering the Gulf of Martaban nearKyaikto. Irrigation development in the Sittang valley has so far beenlimited, although there is substantial potential which has been investigatedin a number of UNDP-financed studies. Two smaller rivers (the Hlaing, onwhich stands Rangoon and which is also fed from the Irrawaddy during theflood season, and the Pegu) rise in the Pegu Yoma and enter the delta areabetween the Irrawaddy and the Sittang. Navigation canals connect the Peguand the Sittang (the Pegu-Sittang Canal), and the Hlaing and a major arm ofthe Irrawaddy (the Twante Canal), and, together with natural channels con-necting the other rivers, these create an extensive water transport systembased on Rangoon.

2.04 The other major Burmese river is the Salween which rises in theeast of Tibet, flowing south through China to pass through the eastern partof the Shan Plateau in a deep rocky rift defile. It is joined by a series ofmainly north-south flowing tributaries which drain most of the central andsouthern parts of the Shan Plateau, on one of which is Burma's only sig-nificant hydro-electric development (at Lawpita on the Baluchaung). Forabout 70 miles, the Salween forms the frontier with Thailand. 1/ The Salweenis navigable for only about 55 miles from its mouth and, although it hasimmense hydro-electric potential (which could be shared with Thailand), itsincised nature and great seasonal variations in water level (it rises byabout 70 ft in the rainy season) imply that it has only limited potential forirrigation.

2.05 The topography of the Arakan and Tenasserim coastal belts dictatesthe character of the many rivers which drain these high rainfall areas. Thetrends in the hill ranges frequently lead to long, narrow valley with riversflowing in a north-south direction (e.g. the Kaladan, Lemro, Mayu and Naafin Arakan, and the Tavoy and Great Tenasserim in Tenasserim). Other shortrivers flow steeply to the sea in an east-west direction. The main agricul-tural areas lie in the lower valleys of the major rivers and their deltas.

Climate

2.06 Burma's climate is tropical monsoonal in type. Rainfall is highlyseasonal, being concentrated in the hot humid months of the southwest monsoon(May through October). In contrast, the northwest monsoon (December through

1/ Similarily, in the far east of Burma, the Mekong forms the frontier with"'Laos for a somewhat longer stretch.

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March) is relatively cool and almost entirely dry. F'rom late February tem-peratures rise rapidly, and the pre-monsoon hot season (April and May) ischaracterized by unsettled conditions, thunderstorms and cyclonic activityin the Bay of Bengal. A similar, if less disturbed period, also accompaniesthe withdrawal of the southwest monsoon (October and November).

2.07 The most significant regional variations are those associated withthe intensity of the southwest monsoonal rains. Annual rainfall ranges fromas high as 4,000 - 6,000 mm along the coastal reaches and in the mountainsof the Arakan and Tenasserim, to as low as 500 - 1,000 mm in the central DryZone. Intermediate levels of rainfall characterize the delta areas (2,000 -3,000 mm), the Shan Plateau (1,000 - 2,000 mm) and transitional areas. TableA.1 summarizes climatic data for various locations and Table A.2 provides ananalysis of the adequacy of precipitation to meet the evapotranspirationneeds of crops. 1/ While this analysis suffers from the inherent limitationsof any attempt to summarize complex agro-climatic differences, it neverthe-less provides a general indication of potential crop production under rainfedconditions. A 'moisture availability index' (MAI) value of 1.00 indicatessufficient natural precipitation to supply the evapotranspiration needs ofmost crops, values below a'bout 0.5 might seriously stress plant growth, andvalues above about 1.30 su;ggest that surface or sub-surface drainage would bedesirable and, at higher levels, essential, for crop production.

Land Use, Land Ownership and Land Tenure

2.08 Table 2.1 provides summary evidence on land utilization in Burma.About 12% of the total land base is cultivated in any one year, a share thathas risen only slowly in recent years. Fallowing is a significant practice,in particular in Dry Zone cropping systems, and accounts for a further 2.5%.Perhaps the most striking aspect of Table 2.1 is, however, the extensiveareas classified as 'culturable waste'. Although reclamation and settlementof these areas would be fa:irly costly, they nevertheless represent a verysubstantial opportunity for exitending the cultivated area both in the Delta(mainly for paddy) and in the Dry Zone (especially for diversified uplandcropping). Forested areas accounted for almost 50% of the land area(reserved forests for 14.5%) and, within this total, extensive areas areunder shifting cultivation,, a :Land use not separately identified.

1/ First given in IBRD: "Burma: Agricultural Sector Review", Draft (GreenCover), Report No. 1680)-BA, August 1977.

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Table 2.1 Land Utilization

'000 Acres;- -% of Total -1963/64 1981/82 1/ 1963/64 1981/82 1/

Net area sown 19,680 20,504 11.8 12.3Fallow area 4,432 4,398 2.7 2.6Culturable waste 2/ 12,826 21,123 7.7 12.6Reserved forests 22,003 24,656 13.2 14.7Other forests } 108,245 54,540 } 64.6 32.6Other lands } - 41,965 } 25.1

TOTAL 167,186 167,186 100.0 100.0

1/ Provisional.f/ Some reclassification of the category 'culturable waste' appears to have

occurred between 1963/64 and 1981/82.

Sources: Agricultural Statistics of Burma (1975) and Ministry of Planningand Finance: Report to Pyithu Hluttaw for 1982/83.

2.09 All land in Burma is publicly owned, private tenancy is illegaland land cannot be bought, sold or mortgaged by individuals. Rights ofcultivation are allocated by the Village Land Committees (VLCs) which intheory have the power to reassign land use rights for failure to growprescribed crops or for some other reason. In practice, farmers already inoccupation are virtually always confirmed, irrespective of farm size.Similarily, land use rights on the death of the occupier are normallyassigned to family members so long as they are engaged in agriculturaloccupations. Most agricultural land is therefore effectively controlled byindependent smallholders. These are, however, subject to general governmentpolicies, which (for instance in relation to cropping patterns) tend to bemore restrictive than in many other neighboring countries. Cooperative andstate farming are encouraged, (in theory they are to account respectively for50% and 10% of all agricultural land by 1990/91),but in practice these arestill relatively unimportant except in a few areas where new land has beenbrought into cultivation. The powers of the VLCs facilitate land acquisitionfor public works and for such programs as land consolidation, but possiblyhave adverse effects on the farmer's willingness to invest in permanent landimprovements.

2.10 Table 2.2 summarizes information on the size distribution of farmholdings. Burma has no history of large feudal land holdings and, althoughthere is no formal limit on holding size, limits were apparently in forceearlier and, with the abolition of tenancy in the early 1960s (which left

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those who were previously tenants with full cultivation rights) and theadoption of other land pol:icies, a relatively equitabl'e pattern of landholding has emerged. There are nevertheless significant inequalities, and inparticular there are substantial numbers of landless people who work as hiredlabor on the large farms and al: peak periods. These are given priority inthe allocation of newly developed land.

Table 2.2. Distribution of Farm Holdings by Size: 1979/80

No. of Area % of TotalHoldings Occupied No. Area Occupied'000 '000 acres

Under 5 acres 2,620 5,961 61.4 24.85 - 10 acres 1,030 7,391 24.1 30.710 - 20 acres 505 7,098 11.8 29.520 - 50 acres 113 3,062 2.6 12.750 - 100 acres 2 126 0.1 0.5More than 100 acres 1 404 _ 1.7

Total 4,270 24,042 100.0 100.0

Source: Report to the Pyithu Hluttaw for 1982/83.

The Agricultural Setting

2.11 Agriculture in Burma can broadly be classif:ied into three primarytypes: Dry Zone agriculture, Delta agriculture (includling other coastalareas) and Hill agriculture;. The Dry Zone is the traditional heartland ofthe Burmese people. The De:Lta areas have come into prominance during thelast hundred years or so as the source of Burma's major agriculturalsurpluses. The hills are sparsely populated, mainly by non-Burmese tribalpeoples, basing their living on a largely inward-looking, subsistenceeconomy. Table A.6 illustrates overall cropping patterns associated withthese three agricultural types.

2.12 The Dry Zone includes much of Magwe, Mandalay and Sagaing Divi-sions. It lies in a rain shadow created by the Arakan Yoma to the west, andrainfall is substantially lower and more erratic than elsewhere in Burma.The MAI remains below 1.00 throughout the year and in the driest partsreaches 0.50 in only one or two months (see Table A.2). Under these condi-tions, a paddy crop is possible only where irrigation is provided or whereconditions are relatively favorable (for instance in the flooded areas of thecentral plains, in other areas with heavy soils and impeded drainage, and inthe higher rainfall transitional belts). Many other crops are grown under

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rainfed conditions, in particular on the lighter soils and in the uplandareas. These include cereals (maize, wheat, millets), oilseeds (sesame,groundnut, sunflower), pulses, and commercial crops (cotton, tobacco, sugar).Together these crops give the Dry Zone a much more varied cropping patternthan elsewhere. Yields tend to be limited by moisture availability exceptwhere irrigation is provided. Since population densities are relativelyhigh, average incomes tend to be below the national average, in particularoutside the major irrigated areas.

2.13 In contrast, rainfall in the Delta region (much of Irrawaddy,Rangoon and Pegu Divisions), and in the agriculturally comparable coastalareas (Tenasserim Division and Mon and Arakan States), is consistently heavyduring the south west monsoon, and the MAI remains well above 2.00 for atleast four months of the year (June through September). Combined with theflat terrain, heavy soils and impeded drainage, the great rainfall largelyprecludes the cultivation of crops other than paddy during the monsoonseason, and rice monoculture is therefore the rule. Double cropping based onresidual moisture, mainly with short season pulses and oilseeds, is of somesignificance, while dry season pumping from perennial channels and hand-dugwells is of growing importance along the river levees and the Kaing lands 1/of the middle and upper Delta. Farm sizes tend to be larger than in the DryZone, farm incomes are above average and the Delta areas account for a largeproportion of the agricultural marketable surplus.

2.14 Outside the major settled areas of the Dry Zone, the Delta andthe coastal plains, and the transitional zones between them, agriculturalsettlement is normally fairly sparse and intermittant. In the inland hillareas of northern Burma and the Shan Plateau, rainfall levels are mostlyintermediate between those of the Dry Zone and the Delta, ranging between1,000 - 2,000 mm per year but rising above 2,000 mm in the far north (an areawhich is also exceptional in receiving significant dry season rains). Rain-fall is even higher on the western slopes of the Arakan Yoma and to the southin the Karen Hills and the Tenasserim Yoma. Even in the lower rainfallareas, the MAI remains above or close to 1.00 for four to five months of theyear, permitting a rainfed paddy crop. Where topography allows it, areas ofpaddyland are developed. Elsewhere, upland paddy under shifting cultivationremains the dominant crop but may be intercropped with maize, oilseeds andother minor crops. With limited access to modern inputs and technologies,yields tend to be low and average farm incomes are below the nationalaverage.

1/ The land between the river levees, flooded during periods of high riverflow but which can be cultivated when the flood recedes.

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Crop Production

2.15 Tables A.3 through A.7 summarize information on cropping patternsand trends in Burma. The gross sown area under all crops recovered to itspre-war level by about 1960. Thereafter it has risen by a further 30% (about1.4% p.a.), reaching almost 25 M acres in 1980/81. I'he net sown area hasrisen more slowly, at about half this rate, reflecting a significant increasein the extent of double cropping from about 7.5% of the total cultivated areain 1961/62 to 20% in 1980/81. After falling during the war and post-waryears, the share of irrigated land in the total net sown area rose from about7.5% in 1960/61 to 12.7% in 1980/81. Overall intensities under irrigationappear to be somewhat lower than in rainfed areas. This reflects the primaryrole of irrigation in securing the main season rice crop, but in a sense ismisleading since irrigation in the Delta needs only to be given to the dryseason crop (from low lift pumps) and this seems to be classified as singlecropping under irrigation.

2.16 Paddy remains Burma's principal crop, accounting for more than 50%of the total gross sown area. Its dominance is, however, declining.Pre-war, it accounted for about 60-65% of the area under rainfed conditionsand 90-95% of that under irrigation, but by 1980/81 these proportions haddeclined to about 50% and 70% respectively. The total area under rice hasshown little change during the last forty years. About 80% is grown underrainfed wetland conditions, (about 10% as deep water rice, about 3% in salineareas and about 67% on 'normal' paddylands), 17% is grown under irrigatedconditions and about 4% is upland rice. The extended monsoon period hastended to favor long life varieties. Only about 35% of the paddy planted isclassified as early maturer (life periods lss than 150 days, harvested inOctober/November), while 45% iis classified as medium matuirer (150-170 days,harvested in November/December), 18% as late maturer (more than 170 days,harvested in December/January) and 1% as winter rice (planted on the reced-ing flood, and harvested in March/April).

2.17 High yielding varieties were first introduced into Burma from IRRIin 1966, but promotional efforlts had a limited impact and the importedvarieties tended to be: (:L) short-stalked and unsuited to the moderatelydeep water conditions of lower Burma, (ii) short-season and ill-adapted tothe prolonged monsoon season, and (iii) of poor eating quality. By 1970/71,only about 4% of the of the gross sown area was planted to these modernvarieties and, even though improved local strains accounted for about a

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further 20%, 1/ there was clearly a major need to develop and promotevarieties more adapted to Burmese conditions. The Agricultural ResearchInstitute (ARI) therefore initiated in the early 1970s a major varietalimprovement program which led to the release of a number of varieties ofhigher plant stature and longer life period than the IRRI varieties. Topromote the spread of these varieties, the Whole Township Rice ProductionProgram (WTRPP-see para 2.25) was launched in 1975/76 and, as a result,modern varieties rose to account for an estimated 33% of the gross sown areain 1981/82, with 'other HYVs' 2/ accounting for an additional 15%. Table 2.3indicates the substantial effect this has had on average yields which,according to official estimates, rose by 55% in the five years to 1981/82.The very big increases that have occurred over the last three years reflectin part very favorable weather conditions.

2.18 Data showing the impact of water supply conditions is scanty but onthe basis of Divisional information (Table A.5) and other sources, yields canbe broadly estimated for four different production systems as follows:

Irrigated in the Dry Zone 1.00 - 1.50 tons/acreProtected in the Delta 1.00 - 1.50 "Rainfed in high rainfall areas 0.75 - 1.00 ITRainfed in low rainfall areas 0.50 - 0.75 It

Such estimates provide of course only a very broad indication of relativeyields. Evidence quoted by a recent IRRI research paper 3/ suggests that theWTRPP has had a somewhat greater impact in irrigated areas than in rainfed

1/ There are some definitional problems that affect the interpretation ofthe official statistics. 'Improved local strains' (which accounted for20% of the total area in 1970/71 according to the Agricultural Statis-tics) appear to cover a larger area than 'other HYVs' as presented in theReport to the Pyithu Hluttaw. In 1977/78, (the last year for which bothestimates are available), the former accounted for 28%, and the latterfor 10%, of the total sown area.

2/ There are some definitional problems that affect the interpretation ofthe official statistics. 'Improved local strains' (which accounted for20% of the total area in 1970/71 according to the Agricultural Statis-tics) appear to cover a larger area than 'other HYVs' as presented in theReport to the Pyithu Hluttaw. In 1977/78, (the last year for which bothestimates are available), the former accounted for 28%, and the latterfor 10%, of the total sown area.

3/ U Khin Win, U Nyi Nyi and E.C. Price: "The Impact of a Special HighYielding-Rice Program in Burma," IRRI Research Paper Series No. 58, March1981.

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areas. For instance, average yields of two 'irrigated' townships increasedfrom 0.89 tons/acre in 1977/78 prior to their inclusion in the WRTPP to 1.31tons/acre in 1978/79 (an increase of 47%) whereas in eleven 'rainfed wetland'townships the comparable increase was from 0.86 to 1.15 tons/acre (33%).Nevertheless, while yields under irrigation are potentially higher than thosein protected areas of high rainfall, the indications are that this potentialhas yet to be exploited to any significant degree.

2.19 Besides introducing HYVs adapted to local conditions, the WTRPP alsopromotes improved cultivation practices and the use o:E modern inputs.According to estimates made by the IRRI Research Paper (op cit), mean yieldsin the townships included .in the program in 1978/79 rose by about 35%, withincreased fertiliser application the primary contributing factor, followed bythe introduction of row transp:Lanting and improved timing of cultivation.Total fertiliser offtake has r:isen rapidly as a resull: of the WTRPP, morethan doubling in the five year to 1980/81. Average applications on paddy,however, remain low (about 32 :Lbs/ acre or 36 kg/ha) and, although they aresubstantially higher in paddy areas coming under the WTRPP (typical recom-mended rates are about 112 lbs/acre of urea for HYVs, 56 lbs/acre of TSP and28 lbs of Muriate of Potash), there is still considerable further potential.With good water control and management, the yield potential for irrigatedpaddy could possibly be as high as 2.0-2.5 tons/acre. Average yields are,however, unlikely to reach these levels and fairly mechanistic yield projec-tions suggest that by the year 2000 average yields might be broadly as fol-lows:

Irrigated in the Dry Zone 1.75 tons/acreProtected in the Delta 1.60 " "Rainfed in high rainfall areas 1.25 "

Rainfed in low ranfall areas 0.80 " "

2.20 Oilseeds are second tc, paddy in terms of sown. area, accounting forabout 20% of the national total.. The two major oilseed crops are sesame(about 65-70% of the total under oilseeds) and groundnuts (about 25-30%).Sunflower covers a fairly small. area, but appears to have considerable poten-tial and is being actively promoted. Oilseeds have traditionally been grownduring the main monsoon season, with production concentrated on thecoarse-textured, lighter soils of the central Dry Zone (the so-called Ya ornon-paddy lands). Increasingly, however, they are being cultivated as wintercrops and this may now account for as much as 50% of the total sown area.About 5% of the area under sesame is irrigated, either following the mainpaddy crop or as a pre-monsoon crop. Rainfed winter cropping on Ya land also

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Table 2.3 Paddy Areas and Yields

Five AreaNamed Other Cove redHYVs I/ HYVs 2/ Other Total by WTRPP

Sown Area--: '000 Acres

1975/76 1,007 1,205 10,646 12,858 -

1976/77 1,112 1,014 10,421 12,547 51977/78 1,225 1,263 10,202 12,690 2371978/79 1,606 2,120 9,231 12,957 2,1001979/80 2,343 1,921 8,156 12,420 3,295

1980/81 31 3,711 1,840 7,%117 12,668 5,703

1981/82 4!4,103 1,894 6,613 12,610 6,431

Yields: tons/acre

1975/76 1.18 0.90 0.68 0.74 2.051976/77 1.22 0.94 0.71 0.77 1.611977/78 1.26 0.95 0.71 0.79 1.171978/79 1.32 1.05 0.72 0.85 1.141979/80 1.37 0.99 0.82 0.95 1.24

1980/81 3/ 1.45 1.09 0.96 1.12 1.351981/82 411.51 1.08 1.02 1.19 1.40

I/ Derived from exotic HYVs. Yagyaw 2 (587,000 acres in 1981/82) Ngwetoe(441,000 acres), C-4-63 (220,000 acres), Schwe War Htun (1,631,000 acres)and Manawhari (1,222,000 acres).

2/ Locally improved HYVs. These appear to exclude some 'improved strains'as defined in Table A.5.

3/ Provisional Actual.

4/ Provisional.

Source: Report to the Pyithu illuttaw, 1982/83.

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occurs, either in rotation wit'h other short-season dry foot crops (maize,pulses) or in mixed stands (Table A.7). The most significant recent develop-ment, however, has probably been the promotion of winter oilseeds, especiallygroundnuts, based on residual moisture in the Delta. Although access to farmpower, and the prevalence of heavy-textured paddy soils, will inevitablylimit the extent of such double cropping, there are nevertheless considerableareas comprising old river meander belts and Kaing lands that have lightertextured soils suitable foir non-paddy winter crops. Pump irrigation in themiddle and upper Delta could aLso play an important role. Since Burma hashad to import vegetable oi:Ls to meet even the current relatively low levelsof per capita consumption, priority will almost certa:Lnly continue to begiven to promoting product`Lon. Yields have remained :Low but the extension ofthe Whole Township Program in 1979/80 to cover oilseeds, as well as a rangeof other crops, appears to have had some impact, and a major USAID-assistedprogram in support of oilseeds and maize should maintain this favorabletrend.

2.21 The major industrial crops include cotton, jute and sugarcane. Burmagrows both short-staple andl medium-staple cotton, all in the central DryZone. Indigenous short-staple varieties are grown during the main monsoonseason under irrigated concliticins and account for some 60-65% of the totalsown area. Yields are low, due both to low input use and inherently lowgenetic potential. Medium-staple varieties (locally called long-staple) aregrown primarily as an irrigated pre-monsoon crop but to a lesser extent as arainfed monsoon and late-monsoon crop. Yields are among the lowest in theworld, being constrained by poor drainage and rainfall at harvest (thepre-monsoon crop), minimal fertiliser and pesticide use, and water stressat various stages of the growing cycle. Efforts are being made to promoteit as an irrigated, late monsoon crop in the context cf major new irrigationdevelopment and, provided technical constraints can be resolved, there seemsto be considerable potential. Production has apparently increased substan-tially in the last two years, but during most of the 1970s fluctuated in theregion of 35-45,000 tons necessitating imports to meet even current low percapita consumption requirements. Jute is primarily grown in Lower Burma asan irrigated pre-monsoon crop although small areas are also planted underrainfed conditions during the main monsoon. A major setback to productionoccurred during the mid-1970s as a result mainly of climatic factors and ashift to more remunerative crops. During the last three years, however,output has recovered and the surplus for export has increased. This wasgreatly assisted by the rapid increase in the number of low lift pumps inoperation in the middle and upper Delta, as well as by other Governmentpromotional programs. Most sugarcane is grown close to milling facilities insouthern Mandalay and Pegu Divisions and in Mon State. A major ADB-assistedproject is rehabilitating the Pyinmana sugar mill and promoting productionthrough the provision of perennial irrigation facilities. A serious diseaseproblem caused by 'red rot' occurred during the mid-1970s but this has beencontrolled through the issue of disease resistant varities and production hasrecovered. Domestic output in general meets domestic requirements although

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overall per capita consumption levels have been relatively low and there isprobably considerable unsatisfied demand.

2.22 Other crops grown in Burma include pulses, minor cereals and gardenand horticultural crops. Pulses in general are grown under similar condi-tions to oilseeds, being cultivated under both rainfed conditions in the DryZone, as well as on residual moisture after a paddy crop. Production hasrisen fairly steadily and, besides constituting an important source ofprotein for the rural population, some 10-15% of output has in recent yearsbeen exported, especially to Japan. The potential for minor cereals, notablymaize and wheat, is considerable and, along with other crops, production isto be promoted by the extension of the Whole Township Program. Wheat isgrown as a rainfed and irrigated winter crop and new varieties with highyielding capacity have proved successful. Imports account for perhaps 10% ofcurrent consumption. In contrast, maize is exported and substantialincreases in production have been achieved in recent years. Along withoilseeds, maize improvements are to be promoted in the context of aUSAID-supported crop intensification program. Horticultural and garden cropsinclude chillies, onions, vegetables and fruits. These cover relativelysmall areas, being widely spread throughout the country. Some areas areirrigated both in major schemes and during the dry season from pumps and handdug wells.

Agricultural Institutions and Supporting Services

2.23 General. The major implementing agencies of the Ministry of Agricu-ture and Forests (excluding livestock, forestry and fisheries), are theAgricultural Corporation (AC) (which is responsible for agricultural researchand extension, procurement and supply of agricultural inputs, and a number ofother supporting activities), the Agricultural Mechanisation Department (AMD)and the Irrigation Department (ID). Supporting roles are played by theSettlement and Land Records Department (which inter alia carries out theannual crop surveys), the Survey Department and the Working People's Settle-ment Department. The Department of Planning and Statistics is responsiblefor advising Ministers on overall matters of sector strategy, programming andpriorities.

2.24 Outside the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, important organiza-tions serving the agricultural sector include those involved in procurement,marketing, processing and distribution, notably the Agricultural Food Produceand Trading Corporation (AFPTC) which operates the compulsory procurementsystem for paddy and other field crops, the Textile Corporation which handlescotton and jute, and other corporations which handle such crops as sugar andtobacco (rubber is still a responsibility of the AC which has been relievedof its other crop procurement responsibilities). Agricultural Credit isprovided by the Myanma Agricultural Bank (MAB) as well as by advance paymentschemes operated by the various procurement agencies. Finally, mention

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should be made of the role of the Peoples Councils in the agricultural sec-tor. These not only control the occupation of land (para 2.09), and throughthis seek to ensure that Governmetnt land use and annual cropping programs areimplemented, but they are also becoming increasingly involved in establishinggeneral local priorities, not only in the agricultural sector. Throughdiscussions with Government agencies, and in other ways, they thus provide achannel for ensuring local participation in establishing and implementingagricultural programs (see para 4.17).

2.25 Agricultural Extension. The Extension Division of the AC operatesthrough about 8,600 extension offices, organised on a State/Division, Town-ship and Village Tract basis. A Village Extension Manager (MEM) normallytakes charge of about 3,000-6,00C acres of cropland with about ten VEMssupervised by the Village Tract Manager. Under the WTRPP most extensionactivities have been organised on a campaign basis which focuses on: (i)a proven new technology, (ii) clear Government support and leadership, (iii)selectivity and concentration (e.g. on one or at the most two crops), (iv)community involvement and (v) demonstration and competition. Coordinatingcommittees are established at the Township level (for Agricutural Management,Cultivation Activities, Procurement and Distribution of Inputs, and Diseaseand Insect Control); production camps are opened as a focus for 10-12 VEMswith training facilities for farmers and served by regular visits by subjectmatter specialists, etc.; seeds and input supplies are coordinated throughthe camps: community effort involving non-farm workers, students, etc. isorganised to help meet higher labor requirements; 1/ and prizes are given,for instance for the highest yields. The proven new teclnology is promotedthrough ten fairly straight forward 'impact points' 2/ in order to provide anunambiguous extension message.

2.26 The WTRPP has been remarkably successful in promoting known tech-nologies and has now been extended, with appropriate modifications, tonineteen crops in addition to rice. 3/ Nevertheless, once its major impacthas been achieved, a more systemized approach to extension activities will

1/ Higher labor requirements result, in particular, from increased plantpopulations and from coordinal:ed cultivation which necessitates higherpeak labor inputs.

2/ The use of HYVs; proper tillage; high plant population; transplantingafter 25-30 days; fertiliser use; basal application of manure; properweeding; improved water management; control of insects and disease; andreduced losses at harvest.,

3/ Wheat, maize, millet, jute, long staple cotton (early and. late), sugar-cane, groundnut (main season and winter), sesamum, sunflower, potatoesand seven pulses.

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increasingly be required. Such an approach would need to have the capacity todeal with cropping systems rather than selected crops, and be geared tosteady improvements rather than to a once-and-for-all technical jump. Suchan approach might take into account aspects of the "training and visit"system which is being implemented on a pilot scale in both the Delta and inupper Burma. Experience with these pilot schemes, as well as with the WTRPP,will need to be taken into account in evolving and strengthening alonger-term system adapted to Burmese requirements.

2.27 Agricultural Research is the responsibility of the AC and is under-taken through two organisations, the Agricultural Research Institute (ARI)and the Regional Research Division (RRD). The ARI was founded at Gyogon nearRangoon in 1956 but in 1971 moved to Yezin( some 250 miles north of Rangoon)where it is based on about 1,000 acres receiving irrigation supplies fromYezin Dam. It has now seven crop divisions (rice, maize and other cereals,oilseeds, fibres, food legumes, sugar, horticulture and vegetables) and fivedisciplinary divisions (agronomy, botany, chemistry, entomology and plantpathology). In the past, ARI's major efforts have been concerned with therice varietal improvement program. This contributed much to the success ofthe WTRPP and is currently supported by a CIDA/IRRI cooperative project. Inthe future, greater emphasis is expected to be given to other crops andUNDP/FAO, which has provided extensive support to ARI, is currently involvedin programs relating to sugarcane, maize, wheat, sunflower and groundnuts.Greater emphasis is also to be placed on cropping systems research and workon rice-based systems is already underway in the context of the CIDA/IRRIcooperative project. ARI is also considering the possibility of establishingwater management research programs, with emphasis on farm practices. RRDcomprises 16 Central Agricultural Experiment stations and 54 sub-stationsspread throughout the country to represent different climatic and soil condi-tions. The primary functions of these regional stations are adaptiveresearch, seed production and training, with basic research results comingfrom the ARI. This separation of basic and applied research has in the pastcreated problems of coordination, which have extended to the linkage betweenresearch and extension. While these have to some extent been moderated inthe context of the WTRPP, which has involved a major cooperative effort, theywill nevertheless tend to resurface as the research effort broadens in futureyears.

2.28 Input supplies to farmers are predominantly arranged by the AC'sProcurement and Distribution Division which cooperates closely with theExtension Division in the context of the WTRPP. Fertiliser, especially urea,is heavily subsidised and, although average application rates are stillfairly low, use has more than doubled over the last five years. Pesticidesare aso heavily subsidised but are less widely used. Agricultural mechanisa-tion is promoted by AMD which operates a network of about 90 tractor hirestations, with about 4,000 tractors and some other equipment, as well asprocuring tractors, pumps, threshers, power tillers and other implements andmachinery for sale to cooperatives and individual farmers. Priority in

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providing AMD tractors for land '?reparation is given to farmers that doublecrop and those cultivating industrial crops. Besides maiintaining its owntractor fleet, AMD also services those belonging to village cooperatives andprovides training and promot:ional services.

2.29 Agricultural credit has primarily comprised seasonal loans for paddy(and to a lesser extent other crops) provided by the'Myanma Agricultural Bank(MAB) through a network of village banks, and by advance payments made bycooperatives and by procurement agencies mainly in respect of industrialcrops. The advance purchase system for paddy was terminated in 1978 and, asa direct result, a sevenfold increase took place in MAB's operations in thatyear. Further increases have occurred since then, primarily as a result ofthe WTRPP. Recovery rates have in general been good and have been muchfacilitated by the assistance of AFPTC and the Local Peoples' Councils.MAB's expansion has, however, revealed a number of institutional weaknessesand a program to reorganise and strengthen the agency has been formulatedwith technical assistance. When implemented, this will include a substan-tially expanded program of development lending.

2.30 Procurement of paddy and other specified field crops is handled bythe AFPTC. Paddy is by far the most important, and procurement accountsnormally for about 30-35% of output. Farmers are required to sell a part oftheir production at a fixed procurement price. Major increases in theprocurement price were effected between 1972-75 but since then, apart fromsome incentive adjustments for quality, it has remained constant at a levelwell below free market and export prices. Quotas are assessed at the time ofharvest by the Township and Village Councils, taking into account the areasown, yields and subsistence requ:irements (normally ranging between 20-60% ofproduction). Surplus above the quota can be sold within the same township,(accounting for possibly 40% of the farm surplus), but sales between town-ships are severely restricted. Processing is largely by private mills onbehalf of AFPTC and private interests, although AFPTC is expanding its ownprocessing capacity, in large measure with external assistance. AFPTC alsoarranges primary distribution. 0ilseeds and other field and horticulturalcrops can generally be marketed freely to the private sector. Although lessclosely controlled than in the case of paddy and the industrial crops, cul-tivation programs for these crops are still in theory established by thePeoples' Councils, and these are likely to be strengthened as a result of thepromotion of priority crops for specified areas in the context of the exten-sion of the Whole Township Program! to non-paddy crops. The principal'planned' industrial crops (that is crops the cultivation of which isrequired of the farmers in specified areas) include medium-staple cotton,jute, sugarcane, Virginia tobacco and rubber. Major prociessing facilitiesare in the hands of Government corporations, and a program of compulsoryprocurement according to a cultivation program implemented through thePeoples' Councils is generally in force. Procurement prices for most ofthese crops were last adjusted in 1976 and have tended to be substantiallybelow free market prices, in part offset by assistance to farmers through

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subsidized inputs, advance payments, etc. In the case of jute, however, lowinternational prices have created the reverse situation and the TextileCorporation has in recent years made a loss on jute exports.

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III. IRRIGATION AND FLOOD PROTECTION DEVELOPMENT

Past Irrigation Development

3.01 Table 3.1 summarises trends in irrigated area by type of irrigation.The regional distribution of irrigation facilities is indicated in Table A.9while details on individual schemes are summarized in Annex B.

3.02 Government Irrigation. Major public irrigation development in Burmadates back centuries, to the reign of Alaungpaya and the age of Pagan (tenthand eleventh centuries A.D.). These ancient systems were concentrated in theheartland of Central Burma and provided the rice surpluses required to sup-port classical civilization. They typically comprised diversion systemsbased on tributaries of the middle Irrawaddy, and were designed essentiallyto provide security to the main season paddy crop. Developments based on thePanlaung and Zawgyi rivers made Kyaukse district the grannary of ancientBurma, but there were many other systems, not only in what is now MandalayDivision but also in Sagaing (e.g. the Old Mu canal system) and Magwe (e.g.on the Mon and Salin rivers). A few major and many minor storage reservoirswere also constructed, the most famous being the Meiktila Tank, these againbeing developed primarily to support the main season rice crop.

3.03 Following the annexaticn of Upper Burma by the British in the latenineteenth century, most of these ancient systems were remodelled andextended, and major new schemes were constructed. The largest of the latterwere the Schwebo (230,000 acres aprox.) and Ye-U (130,000 acres) systems onthe right and left banks of the Mu river respectively. Kabo weir on the Muriver was inaugurated in 1906 and construction of downstream irrigationfacilities continued up until about 1920. Other new systems developed duringthis period included the Mandalay system based on the Chaungmagyi river(106,000 acres approx. completed in 1903), and the Mezali weir systems on theMon river (97,000 acres approx., completed in 1912). Although the structuresprovided were larger, and the standards of the new systems represented someadvance, they nevertheless operated essentially in the traditional manner toguarantee the main season paddy crop. With the completion of these mainschemes, expansion of the area under Government irrigation proceeded moreslowly although remodelling and rehabilitation of ancient systems continuedand, for instance, those on the PanLaung and Zawgyi rivers were rehabilitatedduring the 1920s. Little expansion took place during the years of the GreatDepression, and during the Second World War there was widespread

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Table 3.1: TRENDS IN TOTAL IRRIGATED AREA BY TYPE OF IRRIGATION('000 acres)

1980/811940/41 1947/48 1960/61 1970/71 (Provisional)

Diversion Systems

Government 713 660 a/ 708 827 915Private 279 224 237 699 b/ 690

Tanks-& Reservoirs

Government 109 89 a/ 94 a/ 98 75 c/Private 87 81 76 89 106

Other Private

Wells 18 19 16 28 40Pumps ( ( ( 92 455Other (297 (254 (191 240 370

GRAND TOTAL 1,503 1,327 1,324 2,073 2,651

a/ Share estimated by extrapolation.

b/ The increase between 1960/61 and 1970/71 in private diversion schemesmay reflect improved coverage rather than real development e.g. theinclusion of schemes in the Hill States.

c/ This provisional estimate appears to be low.

Note: These estimates are based on crop reports and are inconsistent withestimates of total commanded area supplied by the IrrigationDepartment, especially of those for Government tank schemes. Thelatter suggest Government diversion and tank schemes covered 1.07 Macres and 0.32 M acres in 1980/81, implying, if the crop estimatesgiven above are used, unrealistically low cropping intensities of 86%and 23.5% respectively. Possible partial explanations include (i) theinclusion of some private schemes in those operated by the ID (or viceversa), (ii) delays in downstream development of new schemes, (iii) lowutilization rates due to adverse climatic conditions and tanks notfilling and, (iv) deterioration and loss of area under old schemes.

Source: Settlements and Land Records Department: Season and Crop Reports.

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deterioration, mainly as a result of inadequate maintenance rather thandirect damage, with significant areas previously irrigated going out ofcommand.

3.04 With independence came renewed interest in the potential for irriga-tion. In particular, the possibility of constructing storage dams to serveboth new and existing irrigated areas was seriously raised for the firsttime. As part of a general assessment of infrastructural and relateddevelopment, KTA Consultants 1/ in the early 1950s identified a range of

priority irrigation and land reclamation projects, and this represented thefirst systematic exercise in project identification and evaluation in Burma.These and other proposals were reviewed by the 1956 Land and AgriculturalPlanning Commission 2/ and, as a result, a number of specific planning andfeasibility investigations were launched. The most important of theserelated to the Mu and Sittang river basins (see paras 3.16-3.17) but othersmaller projects were also evaluated. Actual construction progress duringthe 1950s was, however, fairly slow. Only three projects commanding morethan 5,000 acres each were completed, two diversion systems (Bepemaung andKinmundaung) and one tank (Alaungsithu), and the area developed under newschemes totalled no more than 65,000 acres. The pace of constructionaccelerated somewhat during the 1960s. Two medium scale diversion systemsbased on existing weirs (Yenatha and South Man) and a number of medium scaletank schemes (notably Kyetmnauktaung, Thitson and Mondaing) were constructedor initiated. Furthermore, there was a major effort to construct small scaleschemes, with about 70 small diversion schemes (mainly in Yamethin and Promedistricts, but also in certain hill locations) and 20 small tank schemes(especially in Myingyan district) extending the area under irrigation byabout 110,000 acres and 30,000 acres respectively.

3.05 It was not, however, until the 1970s that the first major newprojects were initiated, involving the Irrigation Department in projects of ascale and complexity not previously attempted and greatly expanding theDepartment's budget, staff and general operations. This expanded activitywas a direct consequence of the economic reforms of the early 1970s (see para1.02), in particular the Government's increased willingness to accept foreignassistance, and followed the promulgation of the Twenty Year Plan 3/ whichlisted 39 storage and reservoir projects (including a dam on the Mu and major

I/ Knappen, Tippetts, Abbett (KTA) Engineering Co.: "Economic and Engineer-ing Development of Burma," 1953.

2/ Report of the Union Land and Agricultural Planning Commission, March1956.

3/ Government of Burma: "Long Term and Short Term Economic Policies of theBurma Socialist Program Party," September 1972. The Twenty Year Planstill provides the general framework for the Government's investmentprogram, although spec:Lfic projects are scheduled in the context of aseries of four year plans, the fourth of which (1982/83-86/87) hasrecently been launched. 'Five Year Development Programs', comprisingdescriptions of projects for which foreign assistance is requested, arepresented to meetings of the Burma Aid Group.

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development in the Sittang basin) and 13 diversion projects (including pumpprojects) to be constructed by 1992/93 (see Annex B). Despite the earlierpriority attached to the Mu and Sittang basins, financial and implementationconstraints meant that somewhat smaller storage projects were initiatedfirst, including North Nawin (now virtually complete); Sedawgyi (the firstmultipurpose project, now scheduled for completion in 1984/85); Kinda (Nyaung-gyat) (scheduled for completion in 1985/86); and South Nawin (pilot work forwhich has been completed). Smaller-scale storage (or tank) schemes are alsobeing developed in a number of areas. Other types of public investment beingconsidered include pump irrigation and groundwater development. New diver-sion schemes, except in certain hill areas, are of decreasing importance.

3.06 Private Irrigation. Communal irrigation has a long history in Burmaand covers an area almost as extensive as that under major Governmentschemes. The origins of communal schemes lie largely in local initiativealthough at various times, in both ancient and modern Burma, Governmentassistance has been provided to help construct major bunds and structures.Village tank schemes are concentrated in the upper reaches of Dry Zone catch-ments, especially in the region of the watershed between the Irrawaddy andSittang valleys in southern Mandalay Division (Meiktila and Yamethin dis-tricts). Village diversion systems are often based on stick dams acrosseither seasonal or perennial streams, and are more widely dispersed thantanks, being located not only in transitional areas between the dry and wetzones but also throughout the hill states. Government assistance is providedthrough the Irrigation Department's budget for major repairs but in generaloperation and maintenance of communal systems resides with the farmers them-selves. Many of these schemes have deteriorated and some have been aban-doned, in the case of the tanks often as a result of siltation.

3.07 Individual forms of irrigation include pumps, wells and individuallyoperated stream diversions. Pump irrigation is a fairly recent phenomenon,and has been promoted by programs implemented by the Agricultural Mechanisa-tion Department (AMD). According to AMD statistics, of 45,400 pumps inoperation in 1980/81, about 31,250 or 70% were owned by individuals, with thebalance operated by cooperatives (28%) and Government (3%). Although infor-mation or pumping capacity is unavailable, privately owned pumps usually havea capacity of 0.5-1.0 cusecs with cooperatively-owned and Government-operatedpumps presumably being somewhat larger. The area irrigated by pumps rose byabout 100,000 acres between 1960 and 1970, and then to more than 450,000acres by 1980/81, making it easily the most rapidly expanding form of irriga-tion. Although pumps are used wherever conditions are favorable, most areconcentrated in the middle and upper Delta, with about two thirds of thetotal pump-irrigated area located in Irrawaddy Division. The area irrigatedfrom hand dug wells is limited primarily to intensive vegetable cultivation,being concentrated in certan Dry Zone areas where acquifer conditions aresuitable. Tubewell irrigation is only at a very initial stage, the firstpilot operational wells being no more than two years old (para 3.26).Finally, the predominant type of 'other irrigation', as classified in Govern-ment statistics (Table 3.1), comprises stream diversions without canaldevelopment, with water diverted directly onto farmer fields. These areconcentrated in transitional areas between the Wet and Dry Zones, notably inSagaing Division.

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Past Flood Protection-and-Drainage Development

3.08 Isolated dikes and flood protection facilities affording some localprotection date back to before the middle of the last century, but it waswith the coming of the British to Lower Burma in 1861 that the first substan-tial projects were initiated. The major projects were located in theIrrawaddy Delta, and included in the initial phase the great Henzada embank-ment (which now provides protection to almost 800,000 acres) and smallerembankments on Maubin Island (150,000 acres) and Thongwa Island (30,000acres). Some development alse occurred in the Sittang Delta, notably in thecontext of the construction of the Pegu-Sittang canal. These first majorprojects were completed by the 1890s, and thereafter the pace of Governmentconstruction slowed, in part because of uncertainties concerning the impactof major embankment works on the stability of the Delta (para 3.12). Never-theless, a few new works were completed during the early years of this cen-tury, including those on Yandoon Island (55,000 acres) and river trainingworks for the Sittang river (Pyuntaza Plain) which provided protection toabout 120,000 acres. In addition, inspired in part by the success of theGovernment projects, numerous small scale embankments were also constructedthroughout the Delta region as a result of local initiative. In a number ofinstances, notably on the east bank of the Irrawaddy above Yandoon, thesecoalesced into an almost continuous protective system, and during the 1930sthe Government assumed responsibility for bringing this 'Irrawaddy East'system (110,000 acres) up to an acceptable standard.

3.09 The impact of these protection works on the economy of the Deltaregion was substantial. The area under paddy in Lower Burma (includingArakan and Tenasserim) rose from about 1.0 M acres during the 1850s to 7.0 Macres by 1900 and almost 10.0 M4 acres by 1940, with a corresponding increasein population from about 1.5 M to 5.5 M and 8.9 M respectively. During andafter the war years, however, extensive deterioration took place both due todirect dislocation and as a result of the abandonment of paddy land due tothe cessation of rice exporcts. Further problems were encountered as a conse-quence of land reform and the abolition of tenancy, whnich undermined certaintraditional responsibilities for maintenance by local landlords and vil-lagers. At the peak, it is estimated that as much as 1.7 M acres of paddyland were abandoned and, therefore, following independence, priority wasgiven to rehabilitation and the problems of accrued maintenance. Governmentalso extended its responsibilities widely not only to the Irrawaddy Eastembankment but also to many other minor village and locally constructedworks. By the early 1970s a total of about 2.2 M acres were protected byGovernment-maintained systems in the Irrawaddy-Sittang Delta region, with afurther 120,000 acres protected elsewhere in Burma. 'En addition, about450,000 acres were served by minor drainage works in many parts of thecountry.

3.10 The great embankments constructed before the war were characteristi-cally 'horseshoe' in type. These contain the river fLood, protecting thearea behind the embankment and using the natural waterway system to evacuaterainfall. They afford only partial protection since the seaward end of thehorseshoe is open to inundation either from the backing up of the river orfrom tidal inflows. They are t:hus successful only where there is areasonable fall between the upstream and downstream ends of the development,and where there is good naturaL internal drainage. They are therefore

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located in the upper and, to a limited extent, in the middle Delta, beingunsuitable for the 'saucer-shaped' islands of the lower Delta. With thecompletion of the Irrawaddy East embankment in the 1950s, the potential forfurther extension of this type of reclamation proved limited. Attentionturned therefore to the possibility of full empoldering to prevent floodingand saline water intrusion in the lower and middle Deltas. The first majorattempt at such an approach was initiated in the middle 1970s with thelaunching of the first Lower Burma Paddyland Development Project (Credit642-BA) and a second project (Credit 835-BA) was initiated soon after.Together these projects will provide full protection to a gross area of about450,000 acres and are expected to be completed by the mid-1980s (see para3.29).

Planning for Future Development

3.11 The physical potential for further development of irrigation, floodcontrol and land reclamation in Burma is very substantial. The seasonalpattern of rainfall and river flows implies that, for the foreseeable future,there is virtually unlimited potential for inter-seasonal storage.Individual projects on tributaries of the Irrawaddy, Chindwin, Sittang,Salween and other rivers need to be evaluated in terms of the hydrology andland resources in their separate basins, and ranked according to their over-all economic and social priority. They can, however, be treated as virtuallyindependent development options. Main stream dams on the Irrawaddy, Chindwinand Salween would involve a broader evaluation of development alternativesand river basin planning, but wet season flows are so great, that even forthese, there would be little danger of preempting in any significant way theultimate use of Burma's overall water resources. In any case, such projectsare likely to be beyond Burma's financial resources for some time to come andthe sites that have so far been provisionally identified have been primarilyfor power and not for-irrigation (para 3.19).

3.12 In contrast to the largely independent characteristics of most alter-native upstream irrigation projects, concern has long been expressed as tothe possible adverse effects of flood control works on the general stabilityof the Delta. Even while the first major embankments were being constructed,fears were expressed that construction on both sides of the Irrawaddy (doubleembanking) would lead to a rise in bed levels as silt normally deposited onthe levees was confined to the main river channels. Further concerns wereraised with the initiation of full empoldering .and the growth of dry seasonpumping. To investigate these various aspects, a number of hydrological datacollection and modelling studies 1/ 21 have recently been completed. Theirmajor conclusions can be summarized as follows:

1/ Sir William Halcrow and Partners: "Irrawaddy Delta, Hydrological Inves-tigations and Delta Survey," Final Report, January 1982.

2/ Hydraulic Research Station: "Lower Burma Paddyland Development Project:Mathematical Model Studies of the Irrawaddy Delta," Second Report, No. EX1025, September 1981.

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a. The Irrawaddy Delta is remarkably stable. Double embanking ledto an increase in bed levels during the 1920s but since thenchanges have not been significant. Silt is transported throughthe Delta without serious deposition, bed levels are generallywell below the surrounding plain and the risk of catastrophicchange is slight. However, if the silt load were to increasemarkedly as a result of catchment degradation, this situationcould change. The position should therefore be continuouslymonitored.

b. Overbank storage appears to play only a limited role in alleviat-ing flood levels 11 and the present river network could carry amajor flood even if large scale empoldering was to be undertaken.Further substantial land reclamation and drainage programs cantherefore be implemented without serious risk of aggrevatingflood levels either during a peak river flood, or at the time ofa cyclonic surge or at peak high tides. Given this satisfactorysituation, there is an a priori argument against interfering withthe present river regime, and creek and river closures should beavoided wherever possible.

c. Substantial additional abstraction of dry season water flows fromthe Irrawaddy are possible without serious risk of adverseeffects due to increased saline intrusion. However, the consult-ants recommend that additional abstraction should be limited to350 cu m/s until the full implications of higher abstractionrates have been studied. This compares with the current 1 in 10year February low flow (assumed to be the critical irrigationmonth) of 1,870 cu m/s: current extraction rates of possibly10-20 cu m/s: and the proposed capacity of an on-going pumpproject of 19 cu m/s (see para 3.24).

3.13 Subject to these overall considerations, therefore, development ofirrigation and land reclamation facilities can proceed in line with overalleconomic and social priorities and within the constraints set by implementa-tion capacity. In setting such priorities, due allowance needs to be givento interactions with other sectors, notably fisheries in the Delta and powergeneration. Alternative modes of irrigation and related development that canbe considered include:

a. Multipurpose storage projects (irrigation, power,flood protection) on major rivers and tributaries;

b. Single-purpose irrigation storage projects on lesserrivers and streams;

1/ This conclusion may not: apply to the washlands along the main left andright bank distributar-Les, the Hlaing and Bassein rivers. The hydrologi-cal model of the Delta did not cover the Delta's apex and the role ofoverbank storage in these areas cannot be quantified. The Consultantsrecommend against empoLdering in these areas untiL the model has beenextended and the posit:Lon clarified.

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c. Rehabilitation and new construction of run-of-the-riverdiverson schemes;

d. Major pump diversion schemes;

e. Groundwater development;

f. Land reclamation, flood protection and drainage programs; and

g. Suppport for private and communal irrigation.

3.14 These alternative modes are briefly reviewed below, while detailson individual schemes that are under construction or have been proposed aresummarized in Annex B.

Multipurpose Storage Projects

3.15 Multipurpose storage projects have been under serious considera-tion since the 1950s, with planning and feasibility studies completed for anumber of areas and projects. Major attention has been given to thetributaries of the middle Irrawaddy (in particular to projects on the Muriver and to the two multipurpose projects currently under construction,Sedawgyi and Kinda), to a comprehensive evaluation of the potential of theSittang basin, and to projects which have as their primary purpose powerproduction.

3.16 Projects on tributaries of the middle Irrawaddy (other than theChindwin) have primarily been considered for irrigation purposes, to provideperennial supplies to both existing diversion schemes and to new areas. Mostmajor opportunities in the central Dry Zone for run-of-the-river irrigationhave already been exploited but surplus wet season river flows and extensiveareas of suitable additional land provide an obvious opportunity for inten-sifying and extending agricultural production. Dam sites have been iden-tified at a reconnaiscance level on most major tributaries, although in somecases these have difficult geological conditions lying as they do in a seis-mic zone. For a number of projects, power production is essentially a byproduct and it can be relatively high cost. Priority was initially given tothe Mu river which has been the subject of extensive planning and feasibilitystudies since the 1950s,1/ but the size of major development on this river,and its probable cost (recently updated by the Irrigation Department to anestimated US$600 M), have mitigated against it. Two somewhat smaller

1/ A report by Italconsult in 1970 recommended a storage dam at Thapanzeikwith a gross storage capacity of 2.88 M acre ft; rehabilitation of theexisting Schwebo and Ye U systems serving about 360,000 acres; the exten-sion of the irrigated area by about 140,000 acres; and the installationof 20 MW generating capacity. Detailed designs for Thanpanzeik Dam weresubsequently prepared and a number of alternative formulations of theproject have been considered.

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projects were therefore talken up first: Sedawgyi Dam I/ on the ChaungmagyiRiver (now scheduled for completion in 1984/85) and Kinda (Nyaunggyat) Dam onthe Panlaung River 2/ (scheduled for completion in 1985/86). Depending onthe experience gained with these two on-going projects, and subject to theavailability of implementation capacity and finance, the Mu project could beconsidered for the longer term. Other possible projects appear to be oflower priority. A dam on the Zawgyi River has probab]Ly to be ruled out inview of adverse geological conditions while the potential of the Samon riverhas been largely exploited through past single purpose tanks on its mainbranches. The potential for irrigation in the basin of the Myintnge, thelargest left bank tributary, appears limited although a possible majorhydroelectric project has been identified (Yeywa, 400 MW). Similarily, thereappears to be limited potentia:L for extending the irrigated area on the rightbank of the Irrawaddy below its confluence with the Chindwin (the existingMon, Man and Salin river systems). The Mon river has, however, significanthydroelectric potential (200 MWi), and there is potent:ial for double croppingon already developed irrigated land.

3.17 In contrast to t:he long history of irrigatiLon development in themiddle Irrawaddy valley, development of run-of-the-river irrigation in theSittang basin has been limited, due in part to higher rainfall. While thebenefits from run-of-the-river irrigation may be limited, there is con-siderable potential for storage. A comprehensive review undertaken underUNDP auspicies in the early 1960s tentatively identified twelve projectscapable of storing about 12 M acre ft (40% of run off), irrigate 2 M acres,protect 0.6 M acres and provide about 1,000 MW of power generatingcapacity.3/ Three priority projects were identified: the Hanthawaddy landreclamation project for about 1.20,000 acres (since implemented), the Sinthestorage project (since abandoned), 4/ and the Yenwe Multipurpose projectwhich is still under active consideration and for which a feasibilitystudy 5/ has recently been completed. Meanwhile two smaller single-purpose

1/ With a gross storage capacity of about 0.36 M acre ft; serving the exist-ing Mandalay (105,000 acres) and Yenatha schemes (18,000 acres); includ-ing construction of a new pump scheme (15,000 acres); and havinginstalled power capacity of 25 MW.

2/ With a gross storage capacity of about 0.78 M acre ft; serving the exist-ing Panlaung systems (87,000 acres); providing for an additional 113,500acres of new land; and having installed power generating capcity of 56MW.

3/ UN Sittang River Valley Survey Mission: "Report on Sittang Valley WaterResources Development", September 1964.

4/ Since a detailed feasibility study estimated that only 32,400 acres(rather than the originally-expected 90,000 acres) could be irrigated,and that average costs would be relatively high.

5/ Nippon Koei: "Yenwe Multipurpose Project", July 1.981. This studyproposes a dam with gross storage capacity of 0.68 M acre ft; irrigationand drainage facilities for 120,000 acres; and 16 MW of power generatingcapacity.

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projects were taken up 1/ and feasibility studies for a major hydro-electricproject on the Paunglaung (the main headwater of the Sittang) are underway.This would provide generating capacity of up to 300 MW and, according to theConsultants, could potentially be accompanied by irrigation development of upto about 140,000 acres. However, they recommend in the first instance afairly small irrigation component (11,000 acres), 2/ primarily so as to avoidinterference with power generation. If, subsequently, operational considera-tions allowed, then further development of about 40,000 acres would probablybe justified. Although considerable potential exists for other multi-purposeprojects in the Sittang basin, feasibility studies have yet to be undertaken.They appear unlikely to be implemented in the foreseeable future unless theyare required for power purposes.

3.18 Theoretical Hydropower potential from Burma's river system hasbeen put at more than 100,000 MW, of which about 5,000 MW has been specifi-cally identified by pre-feasibility studies. This compares with Burma'scurrent installed hydro-capacity of only 168 MW, (at Lawpita on theBaluchaung, a tributary of the Salween), 3/ and capacity under constructionof only 81 MW (Sedawgyi and Kinda). Given current low power system efficien-cies, emphasis in the short-term is to be placed on transmission, distribu-tion and management to reduce losses and make the best use of existing gener-ating facilities. 4/ Nevertheless, continued rapid growth in power demandwill inevitably require a major ongoing investment program and analysesundertaken in the context of a recent IDA-supported power project 5/ suggestthat hydro-power will remain the least cost source of power. Subject tosatisfactory financing arrangement being reached, the Paunglaung hydroproject is scheduled for commissioning in 1989/90. The Consultants for thisproject, in an overall review of the power system, 5/ suggest that the nextmajor project should also be a medium-scale (100 - 300 MW) hydro plant to becommissioned in the early 1990s. They suggest that, in contrast to

1/ Yezin Dam originally designed to serve 16,000 acres and Ngaleik Dam,still under construction, designed to provide irrigation for sugarproduction (the Pyinmana Sugar Project - 20,200 acres). Operationalstudies carried out by the Consultants for the Paunglaung feasibilitystudy (PRC Engineering Consultants) suggest, however, that the area thatcan be irrigated from these two rivers is only about 4,500 and 11,200acres respectively.

2/ To supplement inflow into the Yezin Dam, thus allowing full irrigationof the 16,000 acres originally included under the Yezin Project.

3/ Until a second station is constructed on the Baluchaung (Baluchaung I,28 MW installed capacity, scheduled for commissioning in 1985/86) actualfirm capacity at Lawpita will remain only 130 MW due to headrace restric-tions.

4/ See the SAR Report, No. 3769a-BA.

5/ Norconsult A.S. "Power Systems Planning and Operation Review", InterimReport, June 1981.

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Paunglaung, which has relatively low storage capacity in relation to reser-voir capacity, the next project should aim to achieve high annual firm powerproduction. Thirteen projects 1/ were reviewed and, on the basis of a recon-naissance study, a project on the Bilin river (which enters the Gulf ofMartaban between the Sittanig and the Salween) has provisionally been iden-tified as the most appropr:iate for fulfilling power generation requirementsin the 1990s. This project could also irrigate up to abouit 50,000 acres ofnew land as well as provide flood protection benefits.

3.19 Main stream dams on the Irrawaddy, Chindwin and Salween are likelyto remain beyond Burma's resources or power requirements for the foreseeablefuture. A site on the Irrawaddy has been tentatively identified above Man-dalay at Thabeikhyin (perhaps 1,000 MW or more potential) but has not beenseriously investigated. A UNDI? reconnaiscance study of the Chindwin basinidentified nine possible sites for hydro projects 2/: two on headwaters ofthe main stream (Tarung Hk.L (150 MW), and Tawang Hka (50 MW)), three on majortributaries (Manipur (500 MW), Gangaw and Gyobin), and four on the mainstream itself (Tamanthi (1,200 MW), Homalin (150 MW), Mawleik (400 MW) andSchwezaye (600 W)). The most promising main stream siLte (Tamanthi) wassubsequently taken to pre-feasibility levels by the Electric Power Corpora-tion 3/, but its size, cost: ancd inaccessibility suggest implementation is along-term possibility. Furthermore, although it woulcd substantially increasedry season river flows in the Chindwin (from a minimum of about 70 cu m/s(2,500 cusecs) to perhaps l,750) cu m/s (62,000 cusecsl), and would also haveflood control and navigation benefits, there is no potential for directdiversion irrigation at the site. Therefore, until the safe limit for dryseason extraction from the Irrawaddy is approached (see para 3.12c), it wouldnot be possible to attribute irrigation benefits to this project (or, forthat matter, to other main stream projects on the Irrawaddy/Chindwin). Amore accessible project on the Manipur river has also been investigated byEPC but even though it is smaller than Tamanthi, and might have directirrigation benefits (up to 500,000 acres of possible irrigated land has beensuggested), it also appears to be only a long-term possibility. Finally, theSalween has only limited potential for irrigation but has enormoushydro-potential. A possible main-stream site has been identified at Ywathitwith potential installed capacity of no less than 3,500 MW and, although thisis way beyond Burma's requirements, it is of interest as a possible joint

I/ Yeywa and Mon on tributaries of the Irrawaddy; Manipur on a tributaryof the Chindwin; Bawgata, 1labaung, Kun, Pyu, Thaukyegat and Yenwe ontributaries of the Sittang; Kyaintale and Schwezaye inL Arakan; and Bilinin Mon State.

2/ UNDP: "Essay on Proposed Scheme for the Integrated Use of the ChindwinWater Resources and Programme of Subsequent Investigations," 1962.

3/ EPC: "Tamanthi Hydro-Electric Project," Pre-Feasibility Report, Septem-ber 1974.

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venture with Thailand and as such has been investigated in a recent recon-naiscance report.

Single Purpose-Irrigation Storage Projects

3.20 Burma has a long history of tank irrigation in the central DryZone (see para 3.02), these projects being developed primarily in support ofthe main season rice crop. More recently a number of projects in this regionhave been completed with the aim not only of supporting the main rice crop,but also of diversifying agricultural production during the dry season, inparticular with a view to promoting medium-staple cotton (para 2.21). In atleast two cases, however, (Kyetmauktaung and Yezin), catchment yields haveproved significantly below expectations, projected agricultural benefits havenot been achieved and projects to supplement existing flows from neighboringcatchments have had to be considered (see notes to para 3.17 and Annex B).A large number of further possible projects have been identified, both in theDry Zone and also in areas of higher rainfall where the primary - and, in

some cases, only - benefits are from dry season cultivation. These include:

a. Minor tributaries of the Middle Irrawaddy. A number ofprojects have been completed notably in the Samon river basin(Alaungsithu tank and Mondaing tank, the latter supplementingsupplies to the ancient Meiktila tank which has become badlysilted), on the Pin river (Kyetmauktaung), and on the rightbank Chaungmagyi river (scheduled for completion in 1981/82).The major potential currently under investigation is that ofthe Yin Chaung basin where about nine projects have beenidentified to irrigate up to 100,000 acres. One of these(Kinmundaung) is included in a proposed IDA-supported Tanksproject, and would provide supplementary supplies to, andextend the area of, an existing diversion scheme. Feasibilitystudies for five further projects are currently being under-taken by the ID. Since rainfall during the wet season isuncertain, and available water resources are low relative tothe land suitable for development, these projects are beingconsidered primarily to support a main season crop - paddy onthe heavier soils and medium staple cotton, sesame and otherupland crops on the lighter soils.

b. Tributaries of the Lower Irrawaddy. Regional planning studiesundertaken by the Japan International Cooperation Agency 1/have led to the identification of a series of potential damsites on tributaries entering the Irrawaddy and its Deltabelow Prome, from the West Pegu Yoma on the left bank and fromthe East Arakan Yoma on the right bank. In total, it isestimated that these projects could irrigate almost 900,000acres. North Nawin (97,000 acres), the first major project inthis region, was initiated more than ten years ago and isscheduled for completion in 1981/82. A feasibility study for

1/ Japan International Cooperation Agency: "The Master Plan Survey Reporton the Irrawaddy Basin Integrated Agricultural Development," March 1980.

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a project on the southern branch of the Nawin river (62,500acres and also including a minor 2.1 MW power component) hasbeen completed. Pilot development has been completed, finaldesigns are being carried out and it is expected that theproject will be implemented in two phases with Japanese assis-tance. A third small project (Schwele) is also under con-struction. Projects on the right bank have yet to be inves-tigated in any detail. In view of the higher rainfall in thisregion, and in contrast to those in thie Yin basin, theseprojects are expected not only to supplement wet season paddycultivation but also to achieve relatively high (70%) dryseason intensities through promotion of: (i) a second cropof rice on the heavy soils to the south, (ii) pre-monsoon jutein suitable low lying areas, and (iii) diversified oilseedsand pulses after paddy on the lighter soils.

c. Mon-State. The ID has identified a series of projects onminor rivers flowing into the Gulf of Martaban in Mon Statewhich together could irrigate up to about 75,000 acres. Thefirst of these projects (Azin - 3,000 acres) is included inthe proposed IDA-supported Tank project, and a feasibilitystudy for a second project (Winpanon - 19,500 acres) is underway. Given the high rainfall in this area, wet seasonbenefits - aparl: from flood control - will be minimal.Storage is therefore to be provided to support dry seasoncropping (a second paddy crop or, if this proves feasiblegiven the heavy soils, diversified oilseeds and pulses afterpaddy). A pilot scheme to irrigate perennial fruits isincluded in the Azin project which wilL in addition provideMudon with a town water supply.

3.21 Projects are no doubt possible in many other areas, for instance-in the Sittang basin (see para 3.17), in the hill states and elsewhere.Given their potential in different areas and under varying development condi-tions, such projects can promote both regional balance and agriculturaldiversification. Unit costs tend, however, to be high and given the limitedhydrological and other informal:ion for most of these projects, and therelated agricultural uncertainties, this argues for a fairly cautiousapproach with emphasis on evaluiating the performance of the initial projectsas a guide to future development in comparable areas.

Run-of-the-River and-Major--Pump Diversion Schemes

3.22 Opportunities for major new run-of-the-river diversion schemesin the central Dry Zone are now fairly limited, while benefits from suchprojects tend to be increasingly less favorable the higher the rainfall. Incontrast to the large number of storage projects, therefore, only tenproposed diversion schemes are included in the Twenty Year Plan. Thesecommand a combined total of only 60,000 acres. Almost without exception,they are located in relatively isolated Hill State valleys and are comparablein conception to the recently completed Hopong Valley project (near Taunggyiin Shan State) which comprises a series of five weirs irrigating a number ofseparate areas located down the valley. Feasibility studies for two suchprojects have been completed (Momeik Valley and Hsenwi, both also in Shan

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State) but the remainder, including the two largest, (Kentung Valley on atributary of the Mekong in the far east of the country and LoiknamphaName'kan in Kayah State), have still to be investigated. Most of these hillstreams have year round flows, and these schemes can therefore support sig-nificant areas of dry season cropping. For instance, the ID estimate thatoverall intensities on the Hopong Valley scheme reach about 150%.

3.23 Although major new diversion schemes in the central Dry Zoneappear unlikely, most of the existing schemes are badly deteriorated and arein need of rehabilitation. A major contributory cause of this has been lowlevels of O&M funding (see paras 4.07 - 4.10), with the result that there isa major backlog of accumulated maintenance (e.g. for canal desilting). Morefundamentally, however, the traditional design of such systems requiresmodernization to help improve water control, reduce water losses, facilitaterotational practices and promote crop diversification. Such improvements areincluded in the rehabilitation components of on-going projects such as Sedaw-gyi and Kinda, but they can also be considered in their own right, either inadvance of the provision of storage or where storage is not justified. Aproposal to rehabilitate the Zawgyi system (96,000 acres) was submitted tothe 1980 Burma Aid Group meeting. More recently, GOB has given higherpriority to a project covering the Schwebo and Ye-U systems. It is likely tobe some years before a storage dam on the Mu can be constructed (see para3.16) and there appears therefore to be a need to prevent further deteriora-tion and loss of command in the existing irrigated area. Preparation of afirst stage for these two systems has recently been initiated. Other systemsthat have been suggested for a similar program of rehabilitation include theMon, Man and Salin systems on the right bank of the Irrawaddy below itsconfluence with the Chindwin. Issues relating to the rehabilitation andmodernization of existing systems are discussed further in Chapter IV.

3.24 In contrast to the limited potential for new run-of-the-riverschemes on tributaries of the middle Irrawaddy, the availability of surplusmain stream dry season flows (para 3.12c) provides an obvious opportunity forexpanding the - at present - very limited area under major--pump,diversionschemes. Estimates of the land available in the Dry Zone suitable for suchdevelopment range as high as one million acres or more, although to reachsuch a large area lifts in excess of 300 ft would be required and it isdoubtful whether this would ever prove an economic proposition. The firstsignificant new pump irrigation project has recently been initiated in MagweDivision with ADB assistance, and comprises three separate areas totallingabout 24,000 acres and involving lifts of up to 170 ft. Capacity of thepumps to be provided (19 cu m/sec) lies well within the safe limits suggestedby the Delta Hydrological Consultants (para 3.12c). A reconnaiscance studyof seven further areas is currently being undertaken in order to formulate asecond project covering 35,000 - 50,000 acres. Other pump projects that havebeen suggested include those for the Chaung U project area in Sagaing Divi-sion (to serve 50,000 acres being protected by an on-going flood embankmentproject - care will be needed to coordinate this proposal with the on-goinggroundwater program in the neighboring area, see para 3.28) and the SheinMaga project (30,000 acres), also in Sagaing Division on the West bank of theIrrawaddy above its confluence with the Mu. In view of their high recurrentcosts and management requirements, careful evaluation of the performance ofthese initial projects will be necessary in order to deliniate the extent ofeconomic development. Subject to the results of such an evaluation, however,

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flows were to be supplemented as a result of the construction of main streamhydro projects (para 3.19).

3.25 Lifts in the Delta tend to be much lower than further up riverbut, in contrast to schemes in the Dry Zone, which promote both wet and dryseason cropping, those in the Delta would be confined almost exclusively tosupporting a dry season crop. Over much of the area, soils are unsuitablefor anything but a second paddy crop, and paddy would therefore need toprovide the basis for any large scale development, at least until more isknown about growing irrigated upland crops on the heavy clay soils (para4.25). Feasibility studies have been completed for a scheme covering 65,000acres in the upper Delta (the Natmaw plains, or Henzada, project), but alter-native solutions concerned with the siting of the pump intake are still underconsideration. The Delta consultants have recommended that an initialproject (covering perhaps 16,000 acres) should be implemented to prove theengineering problems, and to gain experience with large scale irrigation inthe Delta. Smaller scale irrigation, comprising units of about 250 acres perpump, have been proposed for non-paddy winter crops and vegetables on therelatively stable lighter soils of the old meander belts, a form of develop-ment that is unlikely to involve the engineering solutions necessary for thelarge scale projects. Sim:ilarily, the potential for small low lift pumpirrigation in the middle and upper Delta is also very considerable (seebelow, para 3.33).

Groundwater Development

3.26 Important groundwater acquifers have long been known to exist inBurma but their exploitation irn the past has been limited to domestic watersupply, and to the intensive irrigation of vegetables and other high valuecrops from hand dug wells. Systematic hydrogeological and groundwater plan-ning investigations were only initiated in 1978 when a UNDP-financed projectwas launched with a view to: (i) defining the physical extent and charac-teristics of selected acquifers, primarily through an exploratory well drill-ing program, (ii) evaluating the potential for tubewell irrigation, takinginto account operational experience derived from pilot development wells, and(iii) preparing a full developmient project if their investigations showedthis to be justified. In order to carry out this exercise, consultants wererecruited and a new Groundwater Division was established in the IrrigationDepartment.

3.27 Under the first phase of these investigations, 1/ four areas wereinvestigated, three in the Dry Zone in Sagaing and Mandalay Divisions and onein Pegu Division on the lower slopes of the Pegu Yoma. Of these, the mostpromising proved to be the Monywa - Chaung U area, an alluvial plain border-ing the left bank of the Chindwin. This proved to be lnderlair. in mostplaces by acquifers of sufficient thickness and permeability for the con-struction of irrigation wells and, with extensive land resources available.

l/ Groundwater Development Consultants Ltd: "Groundwater Exploration andPilot Development, Phase I", Final Report, November 1980.

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would appear to have considerable potential for irrigation development.Apart from a limited artesian acquifer in Zone 2, results for the other twoDry Zone areas (Zone 2 on the right bank of the Chindwin and Zone 3 in Meik-tila district) have proved less promising, with acquifers that are moreconfined, being in some areas of limited thickness and permeability andhaving groundwater of unsuitable quality. Drilling in these areas is,however, still continuing. The least promising area seems to be Zone 4 inPegu District. Opportunities have been identified in a number of otherregions of the country, and serious consideration is being given to launchingparallel investigations in at least one of these, the Taungdwingyi Basin inthe central Dry Zone. This basin is drained by the Yin river and anydevelopment would need to take into account surface irrigation proposals (seepara 3.20) as well as the potential for conjunctive use between surface andsubsurface supplies. Groundwater resources have not yet been investigated inthe Delta to any significant degree although a limited acquifer has beenestablished in the Upper Delta and a further acquifer at greater depth hasbeen postulated but not proven.

3.28 Following the promising identification of the groundwater resour-ces of the Monywa - Chaung U plain, a number of pilot irrigation wells weredeveloped. Their operation initially proved disappointing 1/ and utilizationduring the first irrigation season was rather limited. Shortages of dieselfuel contributed to this unsatisfactory performance but difficulties alsoarose as a result of operational control by 'supervision committees' consist-ing mainly of township and village officials with little representation ofthe concerned farmers. Significant improvement occurred during the secondirrigation system and the management system is to be kept under review. Afirst development project, covering 86 wells, and the electrification of boththese and existing wells, is to be appraised by IDA shortly and the programof groundwater investigations under the UNDP Umbrella Project is to beextended into neighboring areas (including the lower reaches of the Ye-Uirrigation scheme, for which conjunctive use of surface and groundwaterresources appears possible). It is hoped that experience gained duringimplementation of this project will provide the basis for major expansion ofthe area under tubewell irrigation in the future, a type of development whichcould potentially be high return, and could contribute in important ways tocrop diversification (e.g. for wheat) and other major Government objectives.

Land Reclamation -Flood -Protection--and-Drainage

3.29 The stability of the Irrawaddy Delta, and the relatively minorrole that over bank storage plays in alleviating flood levels, providesassurance that further substantial land reclamation and drainage programscan be implemented in the Delta without serious adverse physical consequences(para 3.12). A number of development proposals were reviewed by the DeltaConsultants 2/ but for the following reasons they narrowed the possibilifies

1/ GDC: "Groundwater Exploration and Pilot Development Phase II", .QuarterlyReport 9, November 1981.

2/ Sir William Halcrow & Partners: "Irrawaddy Delta Hydrological Investia-tions and Delta Survey," Volume 4, Reconnaiscance Survey, January 1982.

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down to (i) tidal drainage projects in areas with a minimum August tide rangeof 0.5 metres (1.64 ft), and (ii) low lift pumped irrigation:

a. The Upper-Delta. There is little scope for further develop-ment of horseshoe embankments in the upper Delta and fullempoldering in t:hese areas is impracticable since gravitydrainage during the flood season is impeded by high riverflows and evacuation of rainfall by pumping is effectivelyruled out (here and elsewhere) on the grounds of costs. Majorpump irrigation schemes can of course be envisaged in areasprotected by exiisting horseshoe embankiaents (para 3.24), andsmall scale pump irrigation has great potential on the riverlevees, Kaim land, and old meander be:Lts of the upper Delta(para 3.33).

b. The-Middle-Delta. Tidal ranges in the middle Delta are rela-tively small and water levels are stiLl affected significantlyby river flows. Full gravity drainage therefore may notalways be possible at peak flood level. Partial drainage,however, can be provided in association with flood protectionlevees to guard against river flooding. Access to fresh waterin the dry season also provides opportunities for irrigation.This can take the form of major pump schemes or alternativelysmall scale pumping from internal drainage lines, with theoutfall sluices suitably designed for the intake of freshwater during part of the tidal cycle.

c. The Lower-Delta. The coastal islands enjoy a wide variationin tidal levels and tides are the dominant influence on waterlevels. They can therefore be effectively drained by gravity.Exclusion of saline water can be achieved by coastal protec-tion dykes and control structures on major creeks. Irrigationis however effectively precluded by the salinity of the waterin the creeks throughout the dry season.

d. Lateral-Streams.. Reclamation of the lands beyond the trueDelta, to the north of the main left and right bank dis-tributaries (the Hlaing and Bassein rivers) is ruled out ontwo main grounds: (i) the streams flowing down from theArakan and Eegu Yomas are flashy with high silt loads, andembankment of these would be difficult and involve continuinghigh maintenance costs, and (ii) double embankment of theHlaing and Bassein rivers themselves might have unpredictableconsequences (e.g. for the ports of Rangoon and Bassein) andthe Consultants recommend these lands should be retained aswashlands. Plarning for storage on the Yoma streams (para3.29b) would also need to take into account the impact ofirrigation development on these washlands.

3.30 The two on-going; paddylands projects are lccated partially in themiddle Delta (48,000 acres approx. in Schwelaung Island under Paddy I and60,000 acres approx. in Thongwa Island under Paddy II) and partially in thelower Delta (155,000 acres approx. under Paddy I and 116,000 acres underPaddy II). On the basis of pre!liminary analyses, the Delta Consultants

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without adverse effects on the fluvial regime or salt water penetration.About 50% (or 0.85 M acres), of the area suitable for drainage projects,however, lies in areas where fisheries or prawn interests may be jeopardized,and development of these areas should be delayed until further investigationshave established how far these two types of development conflict.

3.31 Two priority areas were identified both of which lie in the lowerDelta: (i) about 350,000 acres in three development units flanking theRangoon river which have an attractive combination of good tidal range, largepolder size, and easy accessibility, and (ii) about 155,000 acres in threeunits flanking the Bassein river mouth which, although smaller in size andwith lower tidal range, have similar advantages and are close to developmentsalready included under on-going projects. An area of about 230,000 acresflanked by the Rangoon River to the east, the Twante Canal to the north, andthe China Bakir river to the south (the Kawmhu Reclamation area) has beenidentified as being suitable for the next major drainage and reclamationdevelopment in the Delta (Paddy III), and a project for this area is cur-rently being prepared. Although lying in the lower Delta, the Twante canalhas freshwater at high tide during the dry season at least until February,and there may therefore be some potential for irrigation. Initial indica-tions suggest that the area that could be reclaimed under this project issomewhat lower than originally expected, although a final assessment of theproject's economic priority will need to await receipt of the preparationreport, due in October/November 1982. Other similar projects can beenvisaged, and smaller reclamation and drainage projects are also possiblealong the Arakan Coast, in the Sittang Delta and possibly elsewhere. Theoverall scale of these projects will, however, need to take into accounttheir overall impact on the rice surplus, an issue that is discussed furtherin Chapter IV.

Private and Communal Irrigation Programs

3.32 The spread of small scale pump irrigation has represented the mostrapidly expanding form of irrigation during the past decade (para 3.07).Major responsibility for promoting sales of pumps to both individuals andcooperatives rests with the Agricultural Mechanization Department (AMD) withcredit supplied where required by the Myanma Agricultural Bank (MAB). Infor-mation on the number of serviceable pumps is unavailable but during theperiod 1960/61-80/81 a total of 45,409 pumps were sold and the area irrigatedby pumps rose to nearly 500,000 acres.

3.33 Specific programs in support of private pump irrigation haveincluded an IDA supported project (Credit 483-BA) which financed the sale of13,000 4 inch diesel pump sets and accessories. Manufacture of the pumpssupplied under this program (and most others) was undertaken locally by theHeavy Industries Corporation, and five pump repair stations operated by AMDon behalf of the farmers were also provided under the project. Pump salesunder this program proceeded somewhat more slowly than originally anticipatedsince the authorities took a cautious attitude to screening applications forpumps, and sales were spread more widely than expected and were limited tofarmers willing to grow specific crops (in particular, jute). Nevertheless,the impact of the program has been very favorable, with the economic rate of

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return estimated at 29% 1/. The potential for further programs, eitherdirectly in support of AMD's operations (as under the IDA project) orindirectly through expansion of the MAB's development credit operations (para2.29), would appear to be considerable.

3.34 The major areas suitable for expansion of minor pump irrigationare located in those parts of the Delta with freshwater supplies during thedry season. The Delta Consultants identify a number of development condi-tions where medium and small scale pump irrigation would be suitable:

a. Medium scale pump irrigation for non-paddy winter crops andvegetables on thie relatively stable lighter soils of the oldmeander belts. Main season paddy cultivation is restricted inthese areas since they cannot usually be drained by gravity dueto high river levels. Contiguous areas of level land would,however, makes them suitable for electrification programs insupport of cooperative medium scale pump development (perhaps250 acres per installation) for dry season cropping. A totalarea of aboult 45,000 acres has been identified as suitable forthis type of development.

b. Small scale private pumping for the lighter soils of the riverlevees not requiring flood control. This form of irrigationwould be limited by the availbility of these soils and thedistance water can be economically pumped. A total area ofabout 45,000 acres could be covered, and it is possible largerscale pumps could be installed to expand this area.

c. Small scale irrigation using small portable diesel pumps,mainly on the fertile but unstable lighl: alluvial soils of theKaing lands which line the main freshwater channels (40,000acres).

d. Small scale irrigation following flood control-and -partialdrainage of midd:Le Delta islands (para :3.29). Pumps would beused to lift water from drainage networks which would berecharged by gravity at high tide or by larger scale pumpinstallations. Mhe heavier soils which predominate in theinterior of the middle Delta islands would, however, limit thepotential for th:Ls type of irrigation.

3.35 Although the major opportunities for private and cooperative lowlift pump irrigation appear to lie in the Delta, there are possibilitieswherever there is access to dry season flows. Supplementary irrigation inthe Dry Zone is also possible while small mobile pumps could spread inassociation with hand dug wells. Under the IDA-supported project, about 20%of the pumps provided were sold in Upper Burma and, of these, an unexpectedlyhigh proportion (65%) were low lift (maximum head 30 ft) rather than highlift (maximum head 60 ft). A similar regional distribution could well

1/ Burma: Irrigation I Project, Credit 483-BA, Completion Report, December14, 1981.

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develop under any comparable AMD and MAB programs, while opportunities mayalso exist in more distant and isolated areas.

3.36 Although information on other forms of communal and privateirrigation is less readily available, programs in support of these wouldappear to provide scope for low cost and dispersed development of small scaleirrigation. Under its annual budgetary allocations, the Irrigation Depart-ment provides support for major repairs to village diversion and tankschemes. Priorities are established by the local,Township and Village coun-cils, and the ID undertakes the necessary surveys, designs and constructionthrough force account labor, utilizing local farmers as laborers whereverpossible. As far as is known, no systematic or large scale rehabilitationprogram for these small schemes has yet been contemplated and, in general,maintenance, repairs and operations are left to the village councils and thelocal farmers. Such a systematic program could, however, provide a low costapproach to irrigation and agricultural development and would have importantadvantages in terms of overall regional balance. Measures to improve watermanagement, and government support for the operations of these schemes, couldbe combined with a program of rehabilitation and repairs, while involvementof farmers directly in project works and associated cost recovery measurescould reduce the burden on the national budget.

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IV. SELECTED ISSUES IN IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT

Strengthening the Irrigation Department

4.01 The operations of the Irrigation Department (ID) have expandedrapidly over the last decade, primarily in response to the initiation ofmajor aid-supported projects. This expansion has been reflected in thenumbers of staff on the Department's sanctioned strength (up from 6,756 in1973 to 19,477 in 1981, although actual strength was only 12,684); in thetotal equipment fleet (up from 1,311 items of construction equipment to2,183); in the number of major projects under construction (up from 8 to 16);and in budgetary allocations. Tables 4.1 and A.10 demonstrate in particularthe very substantial increa.se i.n capital outlays that has occurred since1974/75. Most of this increase! represents expansion of physical activitiessince, even if international prices have continued to rise, domestic infla-tion in Burma has been moderate in recent years.

4.02 The increase in capital expenditures resulted in particular from theinitiation of Sedawgyi and Paddylands I in 1976/77, of Ngaleik and Mobye in1978/79, and of Kinda and Paddylands II in 1979/80. IDA-assisted projectsare a major factor and are expected to have accounted for almost 60% of totalcapital outlays in 1981/82, with Kinda likely to remain easily the largest IDproject for several years. Total expenditures on committed projects areexpected to rise further from 408 M Kyats in 1980/81 to 690 M Kyats in1982/83 and, although they are projected to decline thiereafter, budgetaryconstraints and implementation delays suggest that in practice expenditureson on-going projects will remain high. Such projects as North Nawin havein the past stretched out well beyond their original schedule and, althoughthe build-up of staff, and employment of a foreign contractor on the Kindaproject, (the first project not to be constructed on ID force account), willfacilitate more rapid implementation, delays have already been experience-d inrespect to a number of projects, including Paddylands I and Sedawgyi. Thus,while the ID's budgetary projections suggest that construction capacity willbe released in 1984/85 and :1985,/86, a fairly cautious approach to the initia-tion of new projects would appear to be warranted.

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Table 4.1 Irrigation Department: Budgetary Outlays('000 Kyats)

1971/72 1974/75 1977/78 1980/81

Expenditure HeadEstablishment 8,145 11,106 17,974 28,784Other Recurrent 18,907 29,295 49,431 70,013Capital 53,720 41,055 269,126 408,058

Total 80,862 81,456 336,531 506,855

Source: Irrigation Department. See Table A.10 for further details.

4.03 The Department is organized essentially on a 'task' rather than aregional basis. A division is established to carry out a major new projectand staff positions are authorized on a temporary project basis. Eight ofthe Department's fifteen divisions (excluding the Head Office), containingalmost 50% of the sanctioned staff, are devoted to construction, of which sixare confined to specific projects (Sedawgyi, Kinda, Paddylands I, PaddylandsII, Groundwater and Ngaleik (Pyinmana Sugar) ). The regular establishmenthas remained virtually unchanged over the last decade and, although increaseshave occurred in both skilled and unskilled laborers under the category'Decasualized Work Charged Establishment', (which is essentially equivalentto the regular establishment), increases in engineering staff have occurredprimarily in the context of projects. As a result, divisions not directlyparticipating in construction of new projects (e.g. maintenance, planningand design, etc.) have tended to suffer both from a failure to obtain newsanctioned positions and from staff transfers to new projects. Finally,vacant posts are required to be speedily filled, since there is availabilityof trained manpower in Burma.

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Table 4.2 I.rrigation-Department Personnel

Sanctioned Strength Actual Strength

1973 1981 1981

Regular Establishment 2,939 2,951 2,362'Decasualized Work' 3,817 11,197 6,591Loan Projects -_-. .5,,329 3j731

Total 6,756 19,477 12,684

of which Engineering Staff na na 1,309

Source: Irrigation Department.

4.04 An ad hoe approach to staff recruitment was probably inevitable tofacilitate the rapid increase in the ID's activities during this period.Nevertheless, it has adverse implications, creating strains in the organisa-tion and, for instance, leading to construction delays and shortages ofexperienced personnel. The Department has therefore put forward a majorreoganisation proposal with the following principal objectives:

a. To regularise temporary and contract staff and broaden careeropportunities so as to: (i) improve morale, (ii) reduce staffturnover and (iii) help fill vacancies with qualifiedrecruits.

b. To strengthen the central divisions, notably Planning andDesign, which :have failed to expand commensurately underthe project-in,duced process of expansion;

c. To establish a comprehensive regional organisation on aState/Division basis so as to: (i) strengthen O&M activities,(ii) ensure a capability for carrying out minor constructionworks throughout the country, and (iii) p.rovide anadministrative counterpart to the Peoples Councils; and

d. To establish four permanent nucleus construction units, basedon those already in existence, to carry out major newprojects. These will need to be strengthened appropriatelyfor specific purposes and additional units will be requiredfor any further projects.

4.05 Availability of teclnical graduates does not seem to be a majorconstraint in Burma, but a firmi decision to fill approved positions andimplement changes along the lines set out above will be an essential firststep to strengthening the Department. Even if this occurs, however, it will

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take time to introduce and make effective the necessary changes. Recruitmentof staff to fill new positions, training requirements, and the role of tech-nical assistance in strengthening specific aspects of the new organisation,are among the more important issues in overall manpower planning which willneed to be reviewed. While shortages of experienced personnel will continueto be a constraint, these proposals are nevertheless an important step in theright direction and, once implemented, should consolidate the Department'scapacity to undertake an expanded future role.

4.06 Organisational changes will need to be complemented by improvementsin the Department's physical facilities. High priority needs to be given toconstructing a central HQ complex in Rangoon since the present dispersal ofvarious activities in temporary accomodation has serious disadvantages.Repair and maintenance facilities have been strengthened in the context ofspecific projects (e.g. the Mandalay repair depot under the Sedawgyiproject), but operations have suffered from inadequate buildings and lack ofspares and manuals etc. A review of how best they can service the newregional organisation should be carried out once the final list of projectsto be implemented under the FFYP has been approved. Similar priority needsto be given to making the best use of the Department's holdings of construc-tion equipment. These are in various states of serviceability and unser-viceability. As in the case of staff positions, most equipment has beenacquired in the context of aid-financed projects. Significant savings mightbe obtained in future through the rehabilitaton of existing equipment, andthe systematic scheduling of plant requirements to meet the investmentprogram approved under the FFYP. Anticipation of plant needs should alsohelp improve the scheduling of construction works since late delivery ofequipment has in a number of cases been the major cause of contructiondelays.

Budgetary Allocations-f-or-.O&M

4.07 Budgetary allocations for O&M are made each year on a sys-tem-by-system basis. ID staff costs are borne by the 'Establishment' budget.Maintenance falls into two categories: 'ordinary maintenance' which coversthe wages of regular laborers, and which averages no more than 5-10kyats/acre, and 'special repairs' which covers any irregular expenditures onheadworks, other structures or the canal systems. Although total O&M alloca-tions more than doubled in the five years to 1980/81 (from 32 to 67 M kyats -see Table A.10), they nevertheless remain very low in relation to the totalirrigated area (1.4 M acres) and protected area (2.7 M acres) falling withID-operated schemes. As a result, only the most urgent repairs can be under-taken and a major problem of accumulated maintenance has emerged. The moststriking evidence for this is the loss command at the tail of major systemsas a result of siltation of canals. For instance, it is estimated that theSchwebo and Ye-U canal systems (para 3.23) can carry no more than two thirdsof their design discharge and that as much as 10-15% of the irrigable area isout of command. Some other systems are in even worse shape (e.g. the Mon,

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Man and Salin systems on the right bank of the Irrawaddy below its confluencewith the Chindwin), and in one! or two extreme cases canals have meanderedfrom their original alignments.

4.08 The ID expect further increases in O&M allocations over the next fiveyears (to 128.5 M kyats in 185/86, see Table A.10) and problems of accumu-lated maintenance are also to be tackled in the context of both on-goingprojects (e.g. Sedawgyi and Kinda) and proposed new projects (e.g. theirrigation rehabilitation program). Nevertheless, overall resource con-straints will continue to impose limits on the funds available. Given thevery high priority that should be attached to ensuring adequate levels of O&Mexpenditure, it will be important to explore alternative sources of revenuewhich can be used to supplement O&M funds.

4.09 Recognizing this, GOB has recently instituted a system of irrigationwater charges, separating these from the previous consolidated land revenuecharge. The latter varies according to the productivity of the land and thefarmers' net return and previously therefore was set taking into account thewater supply situation. In theory, based in part on practices dating back tothe time of the Burmese Kings, the State's share of the farmer's net benefit(defined as the value of his output less cultivation costs, including imputedfamily labor costs) varies from one eighth to one quarter. In irrigatedareas, 75% of the rate was attributed to irrigation and was apparently trans-ferred to the Irrigation Department's account, with the comparable share inareas protected by public emban:kments being 50%. However, the assessmentshave remained unchanged since the early 1940s and the actual burden of landrevenue on the farmers has been extremely low, ranging from only 0.25kyats/acre on infertile rainfed lands to a maximum of 10 kyats/acre on thebest irrigated land. Transfers to the ID have amountesd to no more than about2 M kyats 1/, and their contribution to meeting O&M expenditures has there-fore been small, the latter be:ing very largely dependent on allocations fromgeneral budgetary resources.

4.10 Irrigation and embankment rates established in 1981/82 were also verylow, amounting to only 10 kyats/acre and 5 kyats/acre respectively. TheSettlement and Land Records Department estimate that collections in 1981/82should amount to 27 M kyats. This will in part be ofi-set by reduced landrevenue rates in irrigated and protected areas, but total collections arenevertheless expected to amount: to about 67 M kyats in 1981/82 compared toland revenue of 45 M kyats in ]L980/81.

1/ According to information provided by the ID. Acccording to other sources,total land revenue collections in 1980/81 amounted' to about 45 M kyats,and it is unclear why the ID's share was apparently as low as 2 M kyats.

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4.11 Although the contribution of land revenue and water charges toGovernment income is relatively low, farmers nevertheless contribute verysubstantially through the compulsory purchase system for paddy and othercrops (para 2.30), and even allowing for offsetting input subsidies, mostestimates suggest that implicit commodity taxation for irrigated areas notonly much more than covers recurrent ID expenditures but also probably coverscapital expenditures as well. 1/ Any increase in the level of irrigationwater charges will need to take into account this overall tax burden.However, if, as seems desirable, increases in official procurement prices aremade in order to maintain and improve farm incomes and incentives (see para2.30), then increases in water charges would be the obvious and most equi-table way of ensuring adequate levels of cost recovery in irrigation schemes.The separation of these charges from general land revenue represents there-fore an important step towards establishing a framework within whichbeneficiaries can be charged for the heavy Government expenditures in thesector and which, in the longer term and once the appropriate technicalrequirements have been met, can be adapted to ensure the more efficient andequitable use of irrigation supplies, e.g. through a system of volumetricpricing.

Modernization-of Irrigation Systems

4.12 In addition to giving high priority to providing adequatebudgetary allocations to resolve the problems of accumulated maintenance,attention needs also to be given to design improvements and to the modern-ization of irrigation systems. Such modernization programs have beeninitiated in the context of such on-going projects as Sedawgyi (the MandalaySystem) and Kinda (the Panlaung systems). Inter alia, they aim to facilitateimproved system management and water control, reduce water loses, permit theintroduction of rotational practices, and promote crop diversification andincreased agricultural production. The objective of crop diversification inparticular is increasingly important (see paras 4.23 - 4.25) given the recentturn for the worse in the expected long-term prospects for rice export prices(para 4.20).

4.13 Most existing systems were constructed to support paddy cultiva-tion with a water duty of 1 cusec per 50 acres, and were designed to operateon continuous flow principles. Main canals and laterals, therefore, usuallyhave adequate design capacity to support any likely alternative croppingpattern and require no more than normal desilting and resectioning. Occa-sionally, however, more radical canal remodelling may be desirable so as to

I/ For instance, the SAR for the Kinda (Nyaunggyat) Project (Report No.2767-BA) estimates a total (capital and recurrent) cost recovery index inpresent values terms equivalent to between 100-150%, depending on theassumptions made with respect to future procurement price adjustments.

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solve acute siltation problems, prevent meandering or resolve some othercomparable operational difficulty. Lining to reduce water losses, preventerosion or improve water control has been provided on a limited scale in thepast and may also need to be more widely considered. Headworks and distribu-tion structures normally require rehabilitation and, occasionally, replace-ment or redesign, while new specialized structures such as silt ejec-tors/excluders may be warranted. Additional control structures and measuringdevices are also almost always required to facilitate improved water controland system management.

4.14 In addition to improvements to the main distribution system, twoother major aspects of traditional paddy-based systems are ill-adapted tomodern diversified agricuLture, and need to be given attention. First, andperhaps most important, the tesrtiary distribution system tends to beill-developed, serving an irregular pattern of fields and farm holdings.Watercourses are variable in size and command, and in some instances reach nomore than 25-50% of the cultivated area. Field-to-field flood irrigation istherefore practiced and, while this is acceptable for paddy cultivation, itis entirely inappropriate for diversified cropping. Rehabilitation andmodernization programs, therei-ore, typically extend the tertiary system, forinstance to reach standard sized blocks or to serve each farm individually.Secondly, drainage in traditional systems has received relatively littleattention, and in most schemes depends largely on relatively minor modifica-tions to natural drainage lines. Rehabilitation programs therefore typicallyinclude not only the deepening and upgrading of existing drains, but also theextension of the secondary feeder drainage system.

4.15 More fundamental changes can also be considered. For instance,a pilot land-consolidation program included in the Sedawgyi project hasalready exceeded targets even prior to the provision of perennial supplies.Under this program, land is ccnsolidated into blocks of 40 acres servedthrough a regular system of irrigation watercourses, drainage ditches andfarm roads. The blocks are subdivided into regular plots of multiples of 0.5acres, with a minimum size 0.5 acre and maximum size 2.0 acres, with eachplot served by a standard pipe outlet from the watercourse. Some landlevelling is usually required and, although water duties are still set at thetraditional 1 cusec per 50 acres, it is hoped that, once rotational practicesare well established, higher water efficiencies will be achieved. Implemen-tation is much facilitated by the state ownership of land (para 2.09), butcosts are high (although down from an initial 1,200 Kyats/acre to about 800Kyats/acre in two years), and up to 5% of the land is lost. Considerablebenefits are claimed from the program but careful monitoring and evaluationwill be required before it can be recommended on a large scale.

Operational--Issues

4.16 The operation of major irrigation systems has traditionally beenthe full responsibility of the Irrigation Department although in recent years

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the Peoples' Councils have been playing an increasingly important role inestablishing operational priorities. The ID is responsible for water supplyand system maintenance up to the watercourse outlet. The opening and closingdates of the main irrigation season are decided after consultation with thePeoples' Councils and farmer representatives, taking into account river flowsand/or tank storage conditions. In principle, they reflect the cultivationtimetable established for a distributary command for that year, although inpractice customary dates for paddy cultivation have often emerged by tradi-tion. For both run-of-the-river and tank schemes, water distribution duringthe main irrigation season is normally continuous so long as stream flowsand/or storage availability permit. Canal capacities are designed so as toenable all watercourses to be served simultaneously. Nevertheless, thosetowards the head tend to be advantageously placed and, with progressivesiltation, areas at the tail of many systems have gone out of command. Attimes of low flow, supplies are rotated between major distributaries (and, ifnecessary, between stretches within the same distributary) according toestablished ID procedures so as to ensure as equitable a distribution aspossible. Again, however, farmers at the head tend to be favorably placed.Areas to be irrigated during the dry season are decided in consultation withthe Peoples' Councils and farmers, taking into account likely stream flows(or over-season storage in tank schemes) and ID rotational procedures. Thechoice of dry season areas is, however, limited by the lack of tertiary canaldevelopment, as well as by general system deterioration and high water los-ses.

4.17 Within the watercourse, maintenance and water distribution are theresponsibility of the farmers themselves. A committee composed of the cul-tivators is normally established which elects/appoints a farmer repre-sentative (the Myaunggaung) to provide leadership on all irrigation mattersand to represent a point of contact with ID and other officials. Legally,the Myaunggaung has to be approved by the ID although he is now increasinglyresponsible to the Peoples' Councils rather than to the Department. No fixeddistribution system is set within the watercourse. In theory, under the LandAct, farmers are required to construct channels to each field, but landdisputes and other factors have prevented this from happening and field tofield flood irrigation is common (para 4.13). Depending on its capacity,number of outlets etc., water may be rotated within the watercourse althoughthis is usually a pragmatic practice established by the farmers rather thana formal arrangement. Labor for maintenance is in theory provided in propor-tion to the land occupied, although again practices vary from watercourse towatercourse and from scheme to scheme.

4.18 Major operational improvements will probably need to awaitrehabilitation programs and the modernization of existing systems. Neverthe-less, even without these, some opportunities exist for improving overallsystem management and widening popular participation in operational matters.One approach would be to build on the increasingly important role being

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played by the Peoples' Councils in irrigated agriculture. Their repre-sentative characteristics, their responsibility for implementing Governmentland use and cropping policies, and their increasingly important role insupervising farmer O&M operations, could provide the basis not only forensuring greater popular participation but also for strengthening farmerdiscipline. There is a danger that non-agricultural issues will exert anundue influence, and that the hierachical structure of the Councils will failfully to reflect grass roots concerns. Nevertheless they are an importantand integral component of GOB's general development and administrativepolicies, and therefore have the necessary authority and status. They canthus provide a channel for airing problems that emerge at the farm level,help resolve some types of dispute and influence ID priorities e.g. in decid-ing on major repairs and maintenance. In turn, they could help the ID intro-duce improvements in overall system water management, e.g. by helping gainfarmer acceptance of new rotational or water saving practices, or byencouraging the adoption of coordinated cultivation timetables. Furtherstudy is required to evaluate these, and other alternative, approaches toimproved water management within the framework set by the People's Councils,with a view to scheduling supplies, at both the watercourse and the irriga-tion system level, more efficiently and equitably so as to promote increasedagricultural production.

4.19 In addition to improvements in system management on major schemes,attention needs to be given to the problems facing otlher, more specializedmodes of irrigation development. The institutional constraints affectingthe utilization of the first pilot tubewells are briefly referred to in para3.28. In contrast to major schemes, with their system management require-ments and the involvement of large numbers of farmers, each tubewell supportsa relatively few cultivators. If control over pumping, access to dieselsupplies and employment of the pump operator lie with someone who has nodirect interest in cultivation, problems will inevitably arise in the effi-cient operation of the scheme. Further investigations are required to estab-lish a system of control adapted to Burmese conditions, but this willinevitably involve greater farmaer involvement and reduced day-to-day respons-bility on the part of the Village Council officials. Other modes of irriga-tion where special operational issues are involved include tank schemes,major pump irrigation, small-scale pumping from drainage channels in deltaislands, and communal systems. In each case, it will be important to reviewalternative operational approches and to evaluate the agricultural impactof pilot programs before major new developments can take place.

The--Impact-on Paddy-Production

4.20 The benefits from past irrigation and floocd protection developmenthave been largely reflected in increased rice production. In the future,with the provision of perennial storage, improved water management and growthin private pumping, it is hoped that such development will contributeincreasingly to diversification into high value cash crops. Diversification

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of irrigated agriculture will nevertheless take time and, especially in theDelta, such works will inevitably continue to contribute in large measure toincreased rice output. Since higher output is directly reflected in thesurplus available for export, there is an obvious prima facie conflictbetween continued irrigation and land reclamation programs on the one hand,and the explicit government objective of export diversification away fromrice on the other.

4.21 There are clearly strong general arguments in favor of exportdiversification, given the considerable uncertainties associated with theyear-to-year values of rice export earnings. Internally, rice exports area residual after meeting domestic requirements. Export volumes are thereforevery sensitive to changes in production due to weather or other factors.Externally, the world rice market is a narrow one (accounting for only about4% of world production) and rice prices are among the most valatile of com-modity prices. 11 Given the importance to Burma's economic development ofmaintaining a viable external financial position, such uncertainties carryconsiderable risks for overall economic management. Furthermore, Burma is asignificant player in the world market and a substantial increase in Burmeseexports could have adverse effects on world prices. This is of particularconcern since the latest IBRD commodity price projections suggest that,although international prices should recover from their present low levels,they are unlikely to increase in real terms relative to general levels thathave prevailed over the last two decades.

4.22 Burma will undoubtedly remain a low cost rice producer with aclear comparative advantage in rice production. Nevertheless, these con-siderations suggest that care will need to be taken to select only thoseprojects which accord with this comparative advantage (that is are low costin terms of rice production) or which promote crop diversification. Further-more, the overall scale of the investment program in irrigation drainage andflood protection will need to take into account its likely impact on the ricesurplus. Tables A.11 and A.12 provide illustrative projections of riceproduction and the overall rice surplus to the year 2000, with and without amajor expansion in the irrigated/protected area. The assumptions lyingbehind these projections are specified in the notes to the tables and arevery mechanistic. They do not take into account the impact of price changeson supply and demand nor do they reflect assumptions concerning the demandeffects of rising incomes. They provide therefore only a very indicativeindication of likely future trends and are in no way 'scientific' or firmprojections. Within the context of these limitations, they suggest that if a

1/ IBRD: "BURMA: Priorities for Continued Gorwth", Report No. 3852-BA,May 7, 1982, Chapter III.

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major expansion in the irrigated/protected area were to take place,l/ totalpaddy production might increase to about 18 - 19 M tons by the end of thecentury, with an overall milled rice export surplus of perhaps 2 M tons plus.About 20% of the increase in paddy output (or 1.7 M tons, equivalent to about1 M ton of rice) would, oln these assumptions, be attributable to new invest-ments in irrigation and flood protection, a share that would be propor-tionately reduced to the extent that the actual increase in theirrigated/protected area under paddy falls below the 'maximum achievable'projected in these tables. If no such increase occurred, the surplus forexport is estimated at about 1 M tons, or a little more than the currentlevel.

4.23 These projections are of course very uncertain, and relativelysmall changes in the assumLptions made could be reflected in relatively largechanges in the export surplus., Thus, although an export surplus of about2 M tons would appear to be acceptable, it is possible that yields are under-stated, 2/ and that programs to strengthen supporting services (extension,research, credit, farm power etc.) have greater potential for increasing riceproduction than implied in Table A.11. To this extent such programs are an

1/ Assuming an additional 50,000 acres each of irrigated and protected paddyarea are added each year, increasing the total sown area by about 4%(500,000 acres) between 1979/80 and 1999/2000, and the shares ofirrigated paddy from 17% to 24% of the total and of 'protected' paddyfrom 21% to 28%. These increases are significantly greater than achievedin the recent past (see Table A.3 for the growth in irrigated areas) butsome acceleration in the 1980s can be expected as a result of the majorinvestments in both new irrigation and delta projects since 1982/83(which are not reflected in the 1979/80 base year figures used in TablesA.11). These projected increases are, however, probably about the maxi-mum that could be achieved.

2/ Average yields are officially estimated to have risen by 6% p.a. between1974/75-79/80, 18% in 1980/81 and again by 6% in 1981/82 (Table A.4).These increases are attributable primarly to the success of the WTRPPbut weather conditions have also been favorable and it seems unlikelythat further similar advances are to be expected in the future. Yieldsin Burma now appear to be higher than in comparable neighboring countries(see note to para 1.07) despite the relatively limited role of irriga-tion. Yields in Table A.11 are projected to rise by 1999/2000 to 0.8tons/acre (2.0 tonnes/ha) on rainfed lands under Low rainfall conditions;1.25 tons/acre (3.1 tonnes/ha) on rainfed lands in high rainfall areas;and 1.8 tons/acre (4.2 tonnes/ha) under irrigated conditions. Althoughyields in 1984/85 are assumed to be no higher than the successful yearsof 1980/81-81/82, average long-term yields of this order appear to be ashigh as reasonably can be expected.

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alternative, and almost certainly less costly, way of maintaining an 'accept-able' export surplus than further investment in irrigation. Similarily,improvements in post-harvest technology, (in reducing losses and increasingthe traditionally low milling out-turn achieved in Burma), could also con-tribute substantially to the export surplus and would have strong economicjustification. The role of new irrigation/flood protection investments inincreasing total rice production should not be overstated, and yield enhance-ment on rainfed and existing irrigated/protected areas will continue toaccount for most of the increase under any assumptions. Nevertheless, theseconsiderations further emphasize the need to invest only in low costrice-producing projects, and to give priority to projects which promote cropdiversification, in particular into high value cash crops for which irriga-tion is a necessary input to achieving high yields.

Crop Diversification in Irrigated Areas

4.24 The promotion of crop diversification under irrigation has con-siderable potential in Burma, both through substitution of rice during themonsoon season (e.g on areas of lighter soils) and through increased multiplecropping, and is closely related to issues discussed elsewhere in thisreview, including: (i) the extension of irrigation into areas of lighter,non-paddy soils, (ii) the development of storage and other sources of peren-nial irrigation, (iii) the role of groundwater development, (iv) therehabilitation and modernization of irrigation systems, and (v) the introduc-tion of improved operational and water management techniques. Complementaryagricultural programs and supporting services will also need to be developed,notably agricultural research programs designed to evolve apppropriate crop-ping systems for irrigated areas, and marketing and processing facilities tohandle increased production.

4.25 Table A.7 provides estimates of the areas under different multiplecropping systems in 1979/80. Although irrigated areas accounted for onlyabout 10% of the 3.3 M acres under multiple cropping, this excludes areaswhere irrigation is only provided to the dry season crop (e.g. jute - seepara 2.21) but for which irrigation is crucial to the attainment of multiplecropping objectives. Agricultural mechanization has also contributed much tothe increase in multiple cropping, especially in the Delta, by facilitatingland preparation after the paddy harvest so as to enable the cultivation ofgroundnuts, pulses and other crops using residual moisture. This has beenfurther assisted by the introduction of paddy HYVs with a shorter growingseason than the traditional varieties.

4.26 Paddy-based systems will remain dominant in the Delta and on theheavier soils of Dry Zone irrigation schemes. On the more well-drainedsoils, however, paddy should be progressively eliminated as a result of theintroduction of improved operational practices and the modernizatlion ofirrigation systems. Medium staple cotton is the main cash crop beingpromoted in new Dry Zone schemes. It is currently grown primarly as a

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pre-monsoon crop before paddy (para 2.21) with the planted area limited bydry season river flows. With the development of perennial storage, however,it should increasingly be cultivated as a late-monsoon crop after paddy or,on the lighter soils, after an early irrigated sesamum, maize or similarcrop. The timing of cultivation has been a cruciaLl problem, and highpriority needs to be given to developing shorter-season, more compactvarieties, as well as to applied cropping systems research on farmers' fieldsto develop an appropriate package of cultivation practices. Other crops withpotential include oilseeds (groundnuts, sesamum, sunflower), food legumes(pulses), and other cereals (maize, wheat). These can be grown either inrotation with paddy or, on the lighter soils, with cotton or in succession toeach other. Provided irrigation is available, the timing of cultivation isless of a problem than for paddy/cotton rotations but neverthelessappropriate cultivation practices need to be evolved. Yield response toirrigation is less marked in the case of oilseeds and food legumes than forcereal crops such as wheat, (for which HYV trials under irrigated conditionshave proved successful), but varietal improvement programs are under way atARI, and it is hoped to be that suitable new varieties will be released inthe near future.

4.27 The potential for crop diversification in the Delta is substan-tially less promising than i.n the Dry Zone. Pre-mcinsoon jute based on pumpirrigation is of major significance and still has potential, not only alongfreshwater streams and creeks but also in association with planned drainageschemes in the centre of middle delta islands. The immediate potential forirrigated oilseeds and pulses is largely limited to the lighter soils of theold meander belts, the river levees and the Kaing lands (see para 3.34).However, it is possible that, in the longer term, cultivation on the heavierpaddyland soils will prove feasible with higher than the current minimumyields, and priority should be given to experimental programs designed toestablish this potential.

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V. PRIORITIES FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

General Strategy

5.01 The recent analyses of the hydrological balance in the Deltasuggest that dry season extraction rates from the Irrawaddy/Chindwin systemcould increase substantially above current levels without adversely affectingthe Delta regime while, for the foreseeable future,, there is virtuallyunlimited potential for storage of wet season flows and for land reclamationand drainage programs in the Delta (para 3.11 - 3.12). Physical resources ofland and water therefore impose few constraints on further development. Theprogram for exploiting these resources, however, will need to be determinedwithin a framework set by overall strategies for the agricultural sector, andwill be limited by implementation capacity and the investment resourcesavailable to the sector. It will also need to reflect a more systematicapproach to project preparation than has been the case in the past, so thatpriorities can be more clearly and unambiguously established.

5.02 The Guidelines for the Fourth Four Year Plan (para 1.04) givepriority to agriculture. Nevertheless, the resouces required for such cru-cial sectors as power and transport will be substantial and, even in priorityareas, resource constraints are likely to be fairly restrictive. TheGuidelines, supported by the Bank's recent economic report, recommend there-fore that emphasis in the medium term should be placed on the consolidationof the investment program through such measures as improved capacity utiliza-tion, rehabilitation, and the completion of on-going projects, rather than onfurther major new commitments. Wherever possible, in starting new projects,those that are short-gestation and quick-yielding should be selected enoughthough it must be recognized that in some cases (e.g. in the case of the nextmajor hydroelectric project on the Paunglaung - see para 3.18) major newcommitments will be unavoidable.

5.03 These general priorities are clearly illustrated by the agricul-tural sector. Major opportunities remain for increasing agricultural produc-tion through relatively quick-yielding programs in support of rainfed farmingand in existing irrigated areas. The WTRPP has successfully promoted the useof new varieties, fertilizer and other modern inputs in the paddy sector, butfurther opportunities exist, notably in the extension of the program to othercrops. Many supporting services (agricultural research, agricultural credit,farm mechanization etc.) are at a fairly early stage as compared to someneighboring countries, and programs to strengthen these could have importantbenefits without requiring major new investments. Similar opportunitiesexist in the areas of marketing, processing and distribution so as to reducecrop losses, increase milling out-turns and improve quality. Appropriatefinancial incentives would not only support these various programs but couldalso induce further increases in agricultural production, for instance

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through the reclamation of rainfed land currently classified as 'culturablewaste'.

5.04 In contrast to such 'quick-yielding' programs, new irrigationdevelopment tends to be capital intensive and long gestation in character.Benefits from irrigation are of course also reinforced by programs tostrengthen supporting services. Nevertheless, these are also to some extentalternatives, not only because they compete for the same scarce resources,but also because most crops in Burma can be grown under both rainfed andirrigated conditions and, at least in theory, the same national objective(e.g. a target rice surplus) can often be achieved by emphasizing either oneapproach or the other. In practice, the problem tends to be one of balancerather than clear-cut choice. Irrigation development will undoubtedly con-tinue to play an important role in increasing and diversifying agriculturalproduction. Nevertheless, given the overall priorities guiding the FFYP,the rapid recent expansion in the ID's activities and the implementationconstraints that are likely to be encountered, it will be important to avoidover-commitment in the investment program and in particular to movecautiously in initiating major new projects. A period of consolidation wouldalso provide an opportunity for tackling the management and operationalissues discussed in Chapter IV, and would be complementary to continued majorefforts to strengthen supporting services both for rainfed and for irrigatedagriculture.

The Scale and Composition of the Investment Program

5.05 Even if a fairly cautious approach is adopted to the initiationof new projects, on-going commitments already ensure that the irrigationdevelopment program will contribute significantly to the expansion ofagriculture's share of total investment. Capital expenditures by the ID in1980/81 accounted for about 6% of total public investment and for about 55%of that in the agricultural sector (excluding livestock, forestry andfisheries). A further large increase is anticipated by the Department as aresult of on-going projects (from 400 M kyats in 1980/81 to nearly 700 Mkyats in 1982/83 - see Table A.10). Thereafter, committed expenditures areexpected to decline, but some deLays can be anticipated and new projects willprobably maintain total expenditures at least at this broad level. Agricul-ture, excluding livestock, forestry and fisheries, is expected to account forabout 14% of total public investtient during the FFYP and, if this objectiveis maintained, irrigation and flood control expenditures could even increasetheir share of the agricultural allocations to above 60%.

5.06 The choice of new projlects needs to reflect not only the emphasison consolidation, the timing of a,n-going commitments and the other issuesdiscussed in the previous section, but also relative economic returns and therisks attached to alternative modes of development. Unfortunately onlylimited direct evidence is available on relative economic returns since yielddata are not collected on an irrigated area basis and there have been few, if

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any, monitoring and evaluation case studies. Feasibility and similarstudies, based primarly on a priori assumptions, suggest economic rates ofreturn in the range of about 10-15% for single purpose storage projects withmainly new irrigation development; perhaps 15-20% for multipurpose projectswith significant power components and serving major existing areas; similar,or slightly higher, returns from Government pump schemes; and returns inexcess of 20% for private low lift pumps and land reclamation and drainageprojects in the Delta areas. While such estimates provide a reasonable basisfor supporting continued irrigation and Delta development, the assumptionsand approaches adopted in such a priori studies can vary widely, they fre-quently understate problems of implementation, and they fail in many cases toreflect the recent revised, and more pessimistic outlook, for world riceprices. They are therefore no substitute for a systematic approach toproject evaluation based on monitored experience and consistent assumptions.Only if this is undertaken will a clear picture of investment priorities beestablished.

5.07 Nevertheless, assuming that emphasis in the medium term is to beplaced on the consolidation of the investment program, and on the completionof on-going projects, then the guiding principles in devising the investmentprogram might be as follows:

a. To avoid becoming committed to too many large multi-purposeprojects at any one time, to concentrate in the short termon the completion of Sedawgyi and Kinda, and to initiate newprojects as construction capacity clearly becomes available;

b. To proceed fairly cautiously on a project-by-project basisin the implementation of single-purpose storage projects, pumpschemes and groundwater, to ensure that the right lessons arelearned and that technical, managerial and agricultural issuesare fully explored and taken into account;

c. To launch a cautious rehabilitation program which would seekto investigate operational, maintenance and related issues forexisting schemes;

d. To schedule operations in the Delta, and in other areassuitable for land reclamation and drainage programs, so thatthe overall investment effort in these areas remains broadlyat the present level and is clearly focussed on areas of thehighest priority; and

e. To continue programs for the sale of low lift pumps throughthe Agricultural Mechanization Department at levels which meetdemand, to strengthen complementary credit and related serv-ices, and to explore means-of further promoting and supportingother forms of private and communal irrigation.

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5.08 These guiding prirLciples are broadly reflected in IDA's proposedlending program. As discussed above (para 4.02), the three on-goingIDA-assisted projects, in particular the Kinda project, are a major con-tributing factor to the expected growth in ID expendiures during the nextyear or so. It is possible that IDA will be asked to participate in thefinancing of the proposed Paunglaung hydro-project but this is to be imple-mented by EPC and major expenditures are unlikely to be incurred before1984/85. No other major multi-purpose projects are currently envisaged forIDA-financing although one other (Yenwe) has been the subject of a recentfeasibility study on behalf of the ADB, and there are a number of pos-sibilities in the longer term. A project to finance two relatively smalltanks (Kinmundaung and Azin) has recently been appraised by IDA, and initialwork on South Nawin has started with Japanese assistance. With the comple-tion of on-going projects (North Nawin, Chaungmagyi and - in 1984/85 -Ngaleik), and provided no other significant projects are initiated, the ID'soverall program in the field of single-purpose storage schemes should bebroadly maintained at its present level. Similarly, a third project in theDelta (Paddy III) is currently being prepared. Provided it is scheduled tomake best use of the equipment and staff released as a result of the phasingdown of the Paddy I project, the overall scale of operations in the Deltashould be broadly maintained.

5.09 Other projects under consideration should impose fewer demandson the implementation capacity of the ID. A rehabilitation project, to befinanced by IDA, is to be prepared during the next year for the Ye-U andShwebo systems. High priority should be given to exploiting the irrigationpotential of the Paunglaung Hyrdro-project (for instance by providing sup-plementary supplies to the Yezin project), when this is constructed in themiddle-to-late 1980s. This would start well after thLe similar project toexploit the potential of Lawpita (Mobye) is scheduled for completion. Asecond ADB-supported pump pro'lect is the subject of on-going feasibilitystudies and would no doubt be scheduled so as to ensure a steady program ofdevelopment. Any major pump development in the Delta (e.g. at Henzada) wouldneed to follow a careful evaluation of alternative solutions to the siting ofthe pump intake, although an initial project to investigate these alterna-tives could be considered. An electrification program to promote mediumscale pumping could also be a high priority. Such a program would complementthe strengthening of agricultural credit facilities being proposed for MABand, in line with other support programs for medium and small scale pumps,would not impose a direct burden on the ID. Finally, it is important thatgroundwater development should continue since this form of irrigation haspotentially high returns. The scale of groundwater development will,however, need to be geared to the resolution of operational and managementissues, and to the results of Eurther investigations designed to establishthe groundwater resource.

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Planning and Data Collection

5.10 At various stages of this review, reference has been made to theimportance of planning activities, operational investigations and evaluationstudies to improve the basis for further irrigation development in Burma. Toundertake such activities, high priority needs to be attached to the recruit-ment and training of appropriate ID staff and to the strengthening theDepartment's survey, planning and design capabilities. The rapid expansionof the ID's development program has stretched its capacities in these areas,placed pressure on its project preparation potential, and contributed to thelack of effort devoted to complementary monitoring, evaluation and opera-tional studies. Although many of these functions are the responsibility ofother departments and agencies, (including the Department of Planning andStatistics in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, the AgriculturalCorporation and the Central Statistical Office), closer coordination with theplanning activities of the ID could contribute importantly to the evolutionof a balanced investment program. The reorganization proposals submitted bythe ID give priority to strengthening its planning capabilities (para 4.04),and technical assistance in support of this objective is to be included inthe proposed IDA-supported Tanks project (para 3.20). A period of consolida-tion in the investment program, despite the continued high level of activity,should provide an appropriate context for achieving not only this, but alsoother aspects of the ID's reorganization proposals.

5.11 In implementing a strengthened planning program, it has beensuggested elsewhere in this review that attention should be given inter aliato the following: (i) the detailed scheduling of the ID's resources (staff,equipment, facilities) to meet the investment program proposed for the FFYPand other ID responsibilities, (ii) the strengthening of basic data collec-tion activities (notably in the areas of hydrology, survey and land resour-ces), in particular to ensure adequate preparation of new projects, (iii) theinitiation and evaluation of pilot operational, water management and researchprojects to help in the design of future programs (e.g. system management,land consolidation programs, the institutional framework for tubewell opera-tions, canal lining and other design alternatives etc.), and (iv) the launch-ing of appropriate monitoring and evaluation studies of on-going projects toestablish their agricultural impact as a guide to establishing future invest-ment and operational priorities.

5.12 This review has had fairly modest objectives and, in any case,without a major effort to improve the planning and data base, it would bedifficult to go beyond the fairly tentative discussion on selected irrigationissues that is given in Chapter IV, or to be more precise in recommending aspecific investment program than suggested by the general priorities outlinedin the previous section. In developing a future work program, it will beimportant to define the role of other departments and agencies in carryingout specific tasks, and, where appropriate, the ID's capacity to participate

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in joint evaluation exercises will need to be strengthened. While the over-all scale of the irrigation program will need to be geared to long-termstrategies for the agricultural sector, the ability to implement agreedstrategies, and to attract financial support, will crucially depend on suchplanning activities and on the continued preparation of well-prepared andwell-designed projects.

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ANNEX A

SUPPORTING TABLES

Table A.1 Mean Temperature and Mean Precipitation atSelected Locations

Table A.2 Moisture Availability Index: Selected LocationsTable A.3 Trends in Irrigated and Total Sown AreasTable A.4 Paddy: Trends in Sown Area, Harvested Area,

Yields and ProductionTable A.5 Paddy: Areas and Yields, by Divisions, by

Varieties and by YearTable A.6 Overall Proportion of Gross Sown Area under

Eleven Major Crops: by Division, 1977/78Table A.7 Areas under Multiple Cropping: 1979/80Table A.8 Trends in Irrigated Area by CropTable A.9 Irrigable Area by Means of Irrigation and by

Division and State: 1977/78Table A.10 Irrigation Department Budget: Recurrent and

Capital Expenditures 1971/72 - 1980/81 andProjections for Committed Projects 1981/82 - 1985/86

Table A.11 Paddy Supply Projections: 1979/80 - 1999/2000Table A.12 Rice Balance Projections: 1979/80 - 1999/2000

Table A.1 Mean Temperature and Mean Precipitation at Selected Locations

Mandalay Prome Taungyi Rangoon Mergui Akyab

(Mandalay) (Pegu) (Shan) (Rangoon) (Tenasserim) (Arakan)

Mean Temperature (0C)

January 20.8 23.4 14.6 26.3 26.1 20.8

February 23.6 25.5 16.1 27.2 26.9 22.3

March 27.7 29.0 19.6 28.9 27.9 24.8

April 31.8 31.6 22.7 30.5 28.4 27.6

May 31.2 30.8 22.4 29.6 28.1 29.0

June 29.8 28.1 21.6 27.7 26.8 27.6

July 30.0 27.4 21.1 27.4 26.3 27.1

August 29.3 27.3 20.8 27.3 26.1 27.1

September 29.0 27.3 20.8 27.7 26.2 27.6

October 27.7 27.8 20.1 28.3 26.7 27.6

November 24.7 25.9 18.0 28.0 26.7 25.5

December 21.3 23.4 14.7 26.7 25.6 22.4

Annual 27.2 27.3 19.4 28.0 26.8 25.8

Mean Precipitation (mm)

January 1 1 2 5 23 2

February 3 2 2 6 51 4

March 5 4 16 8 79 12

April 31 20 51 41 134 53

May 146 139 201 304 430 354

June 159 223 259 458 747 1,192

July 70 229 296 544 799 1,392

August 103 228 305 505 742 1,148

September 136 183 279 388 671 573

October 109 114 225 176 307 277

November 51 43 98 71 94 139

December 10 6 16 9 18 19

Annual 825 1,191 1,748 2,515 4,095 5,166

Source: IBRD: "Burma: Agricultural Sector Review", Report No. 1680-BA, August 1977, Annex 3, Appendix C.

-65- ANNEX ATable A.2

Table A.2. Moisture Availability Index:- Selected Locations

Location Pagan Mandalay 'Schwebo Prome Pyinmana Kalewa Taungyyi(Division) (Magwe) (Mandala) ()uagaing) (Pegu) (Mandalay) (Sagaing) (Shan)

January 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00February 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00March 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00April 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.13May 0.21 0.52 0.50 0.50 0.63 0.59 0.95June 0.38 0.81 0.55 1.24 1.15 1.11 1.71July 0.12 0.25 0.34 1.22 1.31 0.89 1.88August 0.38 0.45 0.92 1.21 1.63 3.27 1.95September 0.67 0.70 0.84 1.03 1.23 1.66 1.94October 0.44 0.48 0.64 0.50 0.71 0.53 1.39November 0.07 0.16 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.76 0.54December 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Annual 0.27 0.39 0.43 0.59 0.71 0.97 1.11

Location Henzada Rangoon Bassein Pegu Mergui Moulmein Akyab(Division) (Irrawaddy) (Rangooni) (Irrawaddy) (Pegu) (Tenasserim) (Mon) (Arakan)

January 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00February 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00March 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00April 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.52 0.21 0.12May 0.83 1.30 1.02 1.44 2.08 2.32 1.48June 3.04 2.95 3.71 3.85 5.16 6.43 7.19July 3.62 3.07 3.62 4.38 4.76 7.32 8.46August 3.16 3.19 3.95 4.85 4.27 7.57 7.12September 1.63 2.41 2.28 3.09 4.21 4o44 3.55October 0.73 0.79 1.09 0.96 1.55 1e14 1.43November 0.07 0.23 0.29 0.15 0.38 0.09 0.66December 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00

Annual 1.13 1.24 1.38 1.65 2.15 2.55 2.87

1/ Defined as the ratio of the level cf precipitation at a 75% probability to the-.average potential evagotranspiraticon (see source specified immediately belowfor a full description).

Source: IBRD "Burma: Agricultural Sector Review", Report No., 1680-BA, August 1977,Annex 3, Appendix C.

ANNEX ATable A.3 - 66 -

Table A.3 Trends in Irrigated and Total Sown Areas

Gross Sown Area Net Sown Area % Net Sown % of Area Sown TwiceTotal Irrigated Total Irrigated Irrigated Total Irrigated----- ----- M acres -- --------- %-----------------

1940/41 1/ 18.8 1.6 17.6 1.6 8.9 7.1 -

1961/62 19.0 1.4 17.7 1.3 7.5 7.4 6.21964/65 21.6 2.1 19.6 1.9 9.9 10.3 8.31968/69 21.7 2.3 19.3 2.0 10.5 12.9 12.5

1970/71 22.3 2.3 19.5 2.1 10.6 14.5 12.81971/72 22.7 2.5 19.7 2.2 11.2 15.4 13.61972/73 22.5 2.5 19.5 2.2 11.3 15.5 13.81973/74 23.3 2.7 19.9 2.4 12.0 16.8 13.11974/75 23.5 2.8 20.0 2.4 12.1 17.2 14.81975/76 23.3 2.8 20.1 2.4 12.1 16.1 14.61976/77 23.2 2.7 19.8 2.3 11.7 16.8 14.41977/78 23.6 2.8 20.0 2.4 12.1 17.7 13.91978/79 24.4 3.0 20.4 2.6 12.7 19.5 15.11979/80 2/ 23.3 2.8 19.9 2.5 12.4 17.1 12.51980/81 - 24.8 3.0 20.6 2.7 12.9 20.7 11.31981/82 3/ 25.5 2.9 20.9 2.6 12.4 22.0 13.6

-- - -- - % Increase P.A. ------ --------

1940/ 4 1 1L61/62 0.05 -0.5 0.04 -0.8 na na na

1961/62 -70/71 1.8 5.8 1.1 5.1 na na na

1970/71 -80/81 1.1 2.3 0.5 2.3 na na na

1/ 1936/37 - 1940/41 Average.

2/ Provisional Actual.

3/ Provisional.

Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance: "Report to the Pyithu Hluttaw", variousyears, and Government of Burma "Agricultural Statistics".

Table A.4

Paddy: Trends in Sown Area,Harvested Area, Yields and Production

Sown Area Harvested Area Under Paddy Average Yield: tons/acUnder All Under % Under % of Sown Harvested ProductionCrops Paddy Paddy '000 Acres Sown Area Basis Basis '000 tons

'000 Acres '000 Acres

1940/41 I/ 18,814 12,235 65.0 11,720 95.8 0.57 0.60 7,032

1961/62 19,013 11,359 59.7 10,511 92.5 0.59 0.64 6,726

1970/71 22,338 12,294 55.3 11,544 93.9 0.64 0.68 8,033

1971/72 22,701 12,300 54.2 11,883 96.6 0.66 0.6R 8,040

1972/73 22,502 12,014 53.4 11,771 98.0 0.67 0.68 7,240

1973/74 23,276 12,575 54.0 11,189 89.0 0.58 0.65 8,466

1974/75 23,474 12,793 54.5 12,069 94.3 0.66 0.70 8,448

1975/76 23,331 12,858 55.1 12,428 96.7 0.68 0.70 9,062

1976/77 23,163 12,547 54.2 12,137 96.8 0.71 0.73 9,172

1977/78 23,579 12,690 53.8 12,019 94.7 0.74 0.78 9,313

1978/79 24,368 12,957 53.2 12,381 95.6 0.80 0.84 10,362

1979/80 23,304 12,420 53.3 11,983 96.5 0.91 0.94 10,283

1980/81 2/ 24,805 12,645 51.0 12,177 96.3 1.03 1.07 13,107

1981/82 3/ 25,494 12,610 49.5 11,883 94.2 1.10 1.17 13,923 IDX

1/ 1936-41 Average.2/ Provisional Actuial.3/ Provisional.Source: Government of Burma: Agricultural Statistics and Report to the Pyithu Hluttaw (various years).

TabJe A.5

Paddy: Areas and Yields: By Divisions, by Varieties, and by Year

Area: '000 acres 1977/78 Yields: tn/sown ac 1977/78 Average Yields: tons/matured ac H

Improved Local lmproved Local 1936/37-Varieties Varieties Total Varieties Varieties Total 1940/41 1971/72 1977/78 a X

Characteristically DryZone Divisions

Sagaing 611 695 1,306 0.92 0.53 0.71 0.43 0.58 0.80

Mandalay 327 372 699 0.93 0.38 0.63 0.48 0.61 0.76

Magwe 125 322 446 0.74 0.36 0.47 0.45 0.59 0.65

Sub-total 1,063 1,389 2,452 0.90 0.45 0.65 na na na

CharacteristicallyDelta Divisions

Pegu 1,432 822 2,254 0.94 0.66 0.84 0.78 0.81 0.88

Rangoon 470 840 1,310 1.00 0.66 0.79 .... 0.69 0.81

Irrawaddy 1,299 1,999 3,298 0.96 0.76 0.84 0.66 0.76 0.86

Sub-total 3,201 3,661 6,862 0.96 0.72 0.83 na na na oo

Characteristically CoastalDivisions and States

Tenasserim 43 170 213 0.79 0.58 0.62 0.53 0.56 0.63

Mon 132 533 665 0.81 0.66 0.69 0.50 0.62 0.70Aralwn 144 696 840 0.8] 0.63 0.66 0.57 0.65 0.69

Sub-total 319 1,399 1,718 0.81 0.63 0.67 na na na

CharacteristicallyHill States

Kachin 28 263 291 0.86 0.64 0.66 0.55 0.66 0.68

Chin 2 80 82 .... 0.43 0.44 .... 0.39 0.44

Shan 66 696 762 0.68 0.56 0.57 .... 0.55 0.59

Kayah 14 41 55 0.71 0.39 0.47 .... 0.46 0.48

Karen 34 434 468 0.62 0.38 0.41 0.50 0.37 0.42

Sub-total 144 1,514 1,658 0.71 0.52 0.53 na na na

GRAND TOTAL 4,727 7,693 12,690 0.93 0.62 0.73 0.60 0.68 0.78

Source: Government of Burma Agricultural Statistics.

Table A.6 Overall Proportion of Gross Sown Area under Eleven Mator Grops - - by Divisioni: 1977/78

Cereals Oilseeds atsd Pulses Com-nercist CropsPaddy Maize Wheat Groundoiuts Sesace Pulses Cotton Jute Sugar Tobacco Chillies TOTAL

------------------------- 7 of Total ---------------------------------------------- '000 acres

Characteristically DryZone Divisions 3/

Sagaing 39.7 4.5 5.8 8.2 22.0 15.8 2.1 ... 0.5 1.1 0.4 3,291llandalay 24.9 3.0 0.4 6.6 33.3 15.2 8.0 ... 2.7 2.2 3.5 2,80311agwe 21.0 5.6 ... 7.2 43.9 15.3 4.5 - 0.1 1.5 0.9 2Jl25

Characteristically DeltsArea Divisions3/

Pegu 81.3 0.5 ... 6.6 1.7 4.3 0.3 1.8 2.5 0.7 0.4 2,772Rangoon 96.3 0.1 - 1.8 0.3 0.5 - 0.4 0.5 ... 0.1 1,360Irratwaddy 87.0 0.5 ... 2.6 0.3 4.9 - 3.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 3,791

Charstceristically CoawalStates and Divisions -

Tenasserita 99.1 - - ... 0.5 ... - - 0.5 ... ... 251Mon 93.5 0.1 - 1.1 0.3 0.7 - - 3.7 ... 0.6 711Araeao 95.8 0.1 - 0.7 0.2 0.1 ... .. 0.8 0.9 1.4 877

CharacteristiWly HillStates -

Kachin 82.0 3.3 ... 7.3 1.7 1.1 - 3.7 0.6 0.3 355Chin 48.0 39.8 ... ... 4.1 4.1 1.2 - 0.6 1.2 1.2 171Shan 81.1 6.2 3.4 ... 1.4 3.9 0.1 - 2.9 0.5 0.5 940Kayah 84.4 7.6 ... ... 4.6 1.5 1.3 - 0.5 ... ... 66Karen 93.0 0.2 - 0.2 1.8 1. 4 - - 2.4 0.6 0.4 503

I'ational Total: 11 Crops 63.5 2.6 1.2 4.8 13.5 8.3 2.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 19,980

Naionual Total: All Crops 53.8 2.2 1.0 4.1 11.4 7.0 1.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 23,580

leso t::an 0. 1%.- Nolle

1/ Irrigated plus rainfed.

2/ Arable crops planted on more than 100,000 acres, covering 86% of total gross sown area. Significant crops excluded incltude onions (58,000 acres),potacoes (28,000 acres), garlic (19,000 acres), fodders (496,000 acres), vegetables (229,000 acres), rubber (204.000 acres) and fruits (395,000 acres).

3/ fi'risionsl boundaries do not fully coincide with physical classifinations.

SOURCE: Coverasienit of Burma: Agricultural Statistics for 1976177. 1977/78 and 1978/79; Published 1980. - I

I-

ANNEX A -70-TableA.7 Table A.7

Areas Under Multiple Cropping: 1979/80

Gross Sown Area % of'000 acres Total

Multiple Cropping before Paddy

Pre-monsoon Cotton (long-staple) 120.8 3.6Pre-monsoon Jute 184.5 5.4Early Sesamum 64.9 1.9Pre-monsoon Paddy 53.2 1.6

Sub-total 423.4 12.5

Multiple Cropping after Paddy

Groundnuts 233.9 6.9Paddy 46.5 1.4Pulses 341.9 10.1Other 106.1 3.1

Sub-total 728.5 21.5

Multiple Croping on 'Ya' Land-'

Pulses after early sesamum 1,120.0 33.0Wheat after early sesamum 177.5 5.2Late sesamum after maize 72.2 2.1Long staple cotton after sesamum 277.5 0.8Long staple cotton after onion 93.9 0.3Other 146.4 4.3

Sub-total 1,553.3 45.8

Mixed Cropping

Early sesamum and pigeon pea 68.5 2.0Groundnut and pigeon pea 53.0 1.6Groundnut and maize 2/ 206.5 6.1Pigeon pea and Wagale cotton - 2/ 25.4 0.8Early sesamum and Wagyi cotton - 55.5 1.6Groundnut and Wagyi cotton 2/ 27.6 0.8Others . 253.8 7.5

Sub-total 690.3 20.3

Grand Total 3,395.5 100.0Of Which Irrigated 3/ 309.6 9.1

1/ 'Ya' Land: well drained upland soils, mostly rainfed but small areas are irrigated.2 Local varieties of short staple cotton.3/ Multiple cropping under irrigated conditions. Excludes areas where only dry

season crop is irrigated (see para 4.24).

SOURCE: Ministry of Agriculture and Forests: Notes on Agriculture in Burma,January 1981.

Table A.8 Trends in lrj,gned Area by Crop

Other Other Other Nont-Paddy Cereals Sesame Groundn=ut Pulses Sugarcane Food Crops Cotton Jute Food Crops TOTAL

------ ̂ ----- acres ----------------------------------000 acre

Irrigated Area UnderEach Crop

1940/41!/ 1,462 1 na 4/ na 4/ is 3 34 4/ ... 50 1,568

1961/62 1,168 10 ". 60 6 124 4/ 9 . 30 1,4071964/65 1,608 33 " 91 11 184 4/ 44 27 24 2,1011968/69 1,831 9 118 6 71 11 106 52 50 13 2,268

1970/71 1,818 9 116 3 63 16 122 114 66 13 2,3381971/72 1,860 6 108 4 82 17 126 144 137 i5 2,4991972/73 1,810 10 95 4 84 16 130 157 188 16 2,5021973/74 2,041 9 126 4 69 16 107 117 208 18 2,7131974/75 2,155 6 126 6 ;0 16 128 139 111 12 2,7691975/76 2,16j 6 117 6 79 18 137 143 106 11 2,7861976/77 2,055 5 116 7 82 21 159 110 84 12 2,6511977/78 2,118 4 130 10 75 19 157 105 129 12 2,7581978/79 2,247 6 652 8 73 19 141 124 186 14 2,9681979/80 2/ 2,058 35 106 6 64 16 165 129 185 14 2,7771980/81 3/ 2,146 32 208 7 67 20 173 94 180 15 2,943

Irrigated Area Under EachCrL1, as X, of Total Irr. Area -------------------------------------------__- % _-____-_________-________-__-______-____-_

1940/41 1/ 93 ... na 4/ na 4/ 1 ... 24/ ... ... 3 100

1961/62 83 1 4 .. 9 4/ 1 ... 2 100

1970/71 78 ... 5 ... 3 1 5 5 3 1 1001975/76 78 ... 4 ... 3 1 5 5 4 ... 1001980/81 3/ 73 1 7 ... 2 1 6 3 6 1 100

irrigated Area UnderEach crop as b of ---------o----------------------------------------------- t ---------------------------------------------Total Area Under Crop

1940/41 1/ 12 .. A 4/ na 4/ 2 1 na . .. . na 8.3

1961/52 10 1 , . , 4 6 na 2 ... na 7.4

1970/71 15 1 5 ... 4 7 na 24 57 na 10.51975/76 17 1 5 ... 5 7 na 28 72 na 11.91980/81 3/ 17 3 6 ... 3 8 na 17 72 na 11.9

1/ 1936/37 - 40/41 Average.2 Provisional Actual3/ Provisional Source: Miniatry of Planning & Finance: "Report to the Pyithu4/ Sesameand Groundnuts included in 'other food crops'. liuttaw" various years,and Government of Burma "Agricultural

Statistica".

Table A.9 Irrigable Area by Means of Irrigation and by Division and State: 1977/78 H

Gov't. Irrigation Private Irrigation 1/Canals Tanks Canals Tanks Wells Other Sources- TOTAL-------------------------------- '000 Acres ----------------------------------

Characteristically DryZone Divisions

Sagaing 320 9 145 13 7 146 640Mandalay 293 101 74 88 12 31 599Magwe 150 2 68 10 3 8 241

Characteristically DeltaDivisions

Pegu 19 1 45 5 1 18 89Rangoon ... ... ... 3 14 17Irrawaddy ... ... ... ... 2 188 190

Characteristically CoastalStates and Divisions

Tenasserim ... ... ... 1 2 3Mon ... ... ... ... 2 29 31Arakan ... ... 5 5

Characteristically Hill States

Kachin 29 91 ... 15 135Chin ... ... ... 9 9Shan 43 4 254 5 ... 83 389Kayah 22 ... 8 ... 2 32Karen 5 2 1 ... ... 33 41

National Total 883 119 686 121 31 582 2,422

1/ Including pump schemes, concentrated in Irrawaddy Division.Source: covernment of Burma: "Agricultural Statistics", 1976/77, 1977/78 and 1979/80.

Table A. 10 Department of Irrigation Budget

Recurrent and Capital Expenditures 1971/72 - 1980/81 and Projections for Committed Projects 1981/82 - 85/B6

(H Kyats)

Actual Expenditures Projections for Committed ProlectsLtrr!,u ir1971/72 1972/73 1931374 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/81 1982/83 1983/8 194/85 1985/86

a. Esit.bihah.Žtibt 8.1 10.5 5.2 11.1 16.2 18.7 18.0 28.1 28.8 28.8 35.2 51.1 53.3 55.6 58.11,. (JpILJL1OII & Mainteniance 18.3 20.4 11.0 28.0 31.9 37.6 47.2 42.8 64.1 67.4 51.6 96.6 106.2 116.8 128.5c. oth.r 0.6 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0

To,tal Recurreoit Expeniditures 27.1 32.0 16.7 40.4 49.6 58.1 67.4 73.7 95.8 98.8 89.8 151.1 163.1 176.2 190.5

Capital Expenditure

a. Irri rto 1/Four complet.d projects - 7.1 8.6 3.1 10.4 6.7 4.7 1.3 1.2 3.3 4.0 1.6 - - -North Naw0? 31.5 12.0 8.8 16.4 20.6 14.4 21.7 32.3 32.1 34.0 10.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0Sedawgyi - - - - - 6.7 147.1 17.7 70.1 25.0 47.4 37.6 - -Mubye - - - - - - 2.0 25.3 13 4 11.7 3i.5 - -Ngaleik - - - - - - - - 13.4 57.4 15.4 31.0 31.4 23.3 - J

PFimp Irrigation - - - - - - - 0.9 3.0 5.4 2.0 36.0 33.0 40.0 54.0Kinda - - 6.1 36.4 150.2 283.4 333.7 132.2 46.3

b. Flood ProtectionArakan Flood Protectioy 0.4 0.4 - - - - - 2.5 2.8 3.8 3.4 - - -Three Local Projects-4/ 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 - - - - 2.3 2.8 1.9 - - -Minior Flood Protection- - - - 0.1 16.9 5.9 2.9 - - - - - -Paddylands 1 - - - - - 4.5 68.7 50.9 65.0 46.1 42.7 31.4 28.3 21.8 10.4Paddylands 11 - - - - - - - 58.4 52.6 41.3 66.0 30.0 26.0 11.6

c. Othler 5/Other projects - 12.8 15,0 1.3 9.0 25.9 27.7 25.4 27.2 40.4 74.4 75.9 154.1 215.1 148.4 106.8Assets 5.4 5.9 1.5 4.7 0.9 9.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 4.5 5.3 9.5 9.5 11.5 11.5

Total Capital Expenditure 53.7 42.1 15.3 41.1 71.1 73.6 269.1 190.2 311.3 408.1 410.5 689.7 575.0 407.1 243.6

1/ Yezin, Chaungmagyi, Yenatha Canal anid Hopong Valley projects.

2/ According to the original schedule. This has been revised with completion now expected in 1984/85.

3/ Panimawadi, Chaunig U and Pyingyi laind reclamation anid flood protection projects.

4/ Minor embankments repaired anid expanded unider IDA project 483-BA.

5/ Including both irrigationi and flood protectioi, projects.

Source: Department of Irrigation.

Note: In 1972, the financial year was clanged to April 1 - March 31 from the previous October 1 - September 31. The 1973/74fiiancial year covered only the period October 1, 1973 - March 31, 1984. thus explaining the low expenditures in that year.

ANNEX A 74Table A.l1

Table A.11 Paddy Supply Projections

. . . . .. .... .................. ..... .........- - -..........- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -..- - - - - -..- - - -.........- -......................

Irrigated Protected Rainfed AreasArea Area High Yield Low Yield Total

llTotal Sown Area: '000 acres

1979/80 2/ 2,150 2,730 5,470 2,350 12,7001984/85 2,400 2,980 5,245 2,200 12,8251989/90 2,650 3,230 5,020 2,050 12,9501994/95 2,900 3,480 4,795 1,900 13,0751999/2000 3,150 3,730 4,570 1,750 13,200

3/4/Yields: tons/acre

1979/80 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.50 0.821984/85 1.25 1.25 1.00 0.65 1.041989/90 1.38 1.36 1.08 0.69 1.151994/95 1.52 1.49 1.16 0.74 1.271999/2000 1.68 1.62 1.25 0.78 1.39

Production: '000 tons

1979/80 2,150 2,730 4,376 1,175. 10,4311984/85 3,000 3,725 5,245 1,430 13,4001989/90 3,657 4,393 5,422 1,415 14,8871994/95 4,408 5,185 5,562 1,406 16,5611999/2000 5,292 6,043 5,713 1,365 18,413

5/Increase due to Irrigationand Flood Protection Works

'000 tons

1984/85 313 313 - 225 - 98 3031989/90 690 680 - 486 -207 6791994/95 1,140 1,117 - 783 -333 1,1411999/2000 1,680 1,620 -1,125 -468 1,707

i/ Assuming additional 50,000 acres of irrigated sown area per year, of which 25%is new paddyland and 20% is in high rainfall area. Also additional 50,000acres of protected sown area, of which 25% is new paddyland and all of which isin high rainfall area.

2 Approximate average for 1978/79-1980/81 to obtain base case.

3/ Yield per gross sown acre; these are somewhat lower than the estimates based onyield per matured acre.

4/ Assuming a 25% increase in yields between 1979/80-84/85 to take into account theestimates of production for 1980/81-81/82 (see Table A.4). Thereafter, yields areassumed to increase at the following rates:

Irrigated Area : 2.00% p.a.Protected Area : 1.75 -

Rainfed - High Yield : 1.50 -

Rainfed - Low Yield : I.25

5/ As compared to constant (base case) areas plus yields rising as under note (4).

Source: Bank Staff Estimates.

-75-

ANNEX ATable A.12

Table A.12 Rice Balance Projections

1979/80 1984/85 1989/90 1994195 1999/2000

…- - - - -- 000…

Population 1/ 33,313 37,324 41,819 46,854 52,496

-…------------ …000 tons -----------------…-

Domestic Use: Rice 2/ 5,330 5,972 6,691 7,497 8,399

Production: Paddy 31

With Investment Program 41 10,431 13,400 14,887 16,561 18,413Without Investment Program 10,431 13,097 14,208 15,420 16,706

Production: Rice 5/

With Investment Program 4/ 5,946 7,638 8,486 9,440 10,495Without Investment Program 5,946 7,465 8,099 8,789 9,522

Surplus for Export: Rice

With Investment Program 4/ 616 1,666 1,795 1,943 2,096Without Investment Program 616 1,493 1,408 1,292 1,123

1/ Assumed to grow at 2.3Z p.a., the average over period 1976-82, and the working assump-tion of the GOB authorities. There is no indication of any reduction in the rate ofgrowth of population, although such a trend may emerge in the longer term.

2/ Defined to include consumption, seed, waste and stock changes. Assumed to remain con-stant at 0.16 tons/hd/year, the approximate average for period 1970/71-80/81. Althoughsome increase might be expected in the longer term with rising incomes and production,(i) fluctuations in the past have shown no significant trend even with big changes inoutput, (ii) per capita consumption rates are already high by the standards of othercomparable countries, and (iii) increases in retail prices could offset the impactof rising incomes.

3/ See Table A.11.

4/ Assuming additional 50,000 acres of irrigated sown area per year, of which 25% is newpaddyland and 20% is in high rainfall area. Also additional 50,000 acres of protectedsown area, of which 25% is new paddyland and all of which is in high rainfall areas.

5/ Assuming a paddy/rice conversion ratio of 0.57, the average for the period 1977/78-79/80.This is relatively low by the standards of other countries and could rise significantlywith improved milling facilities. However, in the short ruL, the trend could be thereverse in view of the lower conversion rates being achieved for HYVs.

Source: Bank Staff Estimates.

- 77 -

ANNEX B

PROJECTS OPERATED OR PROPOSED BY IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT

Table B.1 Diversion ProjectsTable B.2 Dam and Reservoir ProjectsTable B.3 Pump and Groundwater ProjectsTable B.4 Flood Protection and Drainage Projects

- 79 -ANNEX BTable 3.1

Table B3.

DIVERSION PROJECTS OPERATED OR PROPOSED BY IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT

Location Division/ Irrigable Year ofState Area'(ac) Completion References and Notes

COMPLETED PROJECTS

Shwebo and Ye U Shwebo Sagaing 358.715 1918/19 Kabo Weir systems inaugerated in 1906 and later extended.

(Mu River) Shwebo system on left bank (227,00f0 acres aprox.), Ye-U systemon right bank (131,000 acres approx.). Would be provided withstorage under major Mu River multipurpose development project(Table B.2). Proposed candidate for Rehabilitation Program (PhaseI), prior to provision of perennial storage.

Mandalay Mandalay Mandalay 105,869 1903 To be rehabilitated and provided with perennial supplies in context

(Chaungoagyi River) of Sedawgyi Multipurpose Project (Table 8.2). AD8 SAR gives an area of94,850 acres. 105,869 acres possibly includes Yenatha schemoe (seebelow).

Mezali Weir minbu Magwe 96,787 1912 Right Bank - 55,907 acres, Left Bank - 40,690 acres. Proposed for

(Mon River) Rehabilitation Program (?Phase II). Possible site for multipurposestorage project.

Zawgyi (4 Weirs) Rysukse }Andalay 96,331 1925/26 Ancient system modernized in 1925/26. Proposed for RehabilitationProgram (?Phase 11).

Panlaung (3 Weirs) Ryaukse Mandalay 86,913 1925/26 Ancient system modernized in 1925/26. To be rehabilitated in contextof Kinda (Nysunggyat) Multipurpose Project and provided with storage.IDA SAR gives 88,000 acres.

Salin Minbu Magwe 28,431 1926 Proposed for Rehabilitation Program (?Phase I1).

Aigma Weir (Man River) Minbu Magwe 25,500 1912 Left Bank of Man River. Proposed for Rehabilitation Program(?Phase 11). Possibility of storage (see Table 8.2).

Eopong Valley (5 Weirs) Taunggyi Shan 25,000 1977178 Recently constructed cascade of. weirs in Shan State. ID Report 150Xcropping intensity.

lenatha Madaya Mandalay 18,000 1975/76 Recently constructed scheme on right bank of Chaungmagyi River. To(Chaungmaglyi River) be provided with storage under Sedawgyi Multipurpose Project

(Table 3.2).

Washawng Myitkyina Xachin 17,450 1966/67 On tributary of Upper Trrawaddy. ID report 200X cropping intensity.

lepemaung Yamethin Mandalay 12,780 1959 Upper Sittang Valley.

South Man Minbu Magwe 11,958 1969/70 Recent system on right bank of Man river, also served from Aigma weir(see above). Possibility of storage (see Table 8.2).

Old Mu Canal Shwebo Sagaing 10,131 Ancient Catchwater drain feeding existing tank. Remnant of ancient syste6(Mile 26/1 - 15/7) based on Mu river. Would be inteSrated into multipurpose Mu river

development project.

Kinmundaung Taungdwingyi Magwa 10,000 1959/60 Project in Yin River Basin. To be provided with storage under IDATanks I Project (Table 2). Peasibility study by ID gives presentirrigated area at 1,000 acres to be increased to 5,500 acres undertank project.

No. of Schemes

7,500 - 10,000 acres I Mandalay 7,636 - Iuyin Weir, Neiktila.

5,000 - 7,500 acres 2 _ 12,200 - Yezin (6,121 acres) now served by dam and excluded. tiomale (6,200acres) proposed for tank project (Table 8.2).

2,500 - 5,000 acres 17 - 55,889 -

Less than 2,500 acres 70 - 89,200 -

Minor Irrigation - Mandalay 10,824 - Minor irrigation in Meiktila and tamethin undefined in terms of

individual projects.

Total: Completed Projects - - 1,068,790 -

UDER CONSIDERATION (Incomplete)

Xentung Valley Kentung Shan 17,100 - Included in 20-Year Plan. Still to be investigated.

Loiknampha Name'kan Demawsoe Kayah 10,100 - Included in 20-Year Plan. Still to be investigated.

Momeik Valley lomeik Shan 6,770 - Included in 20-Year Plan. Included in 5-Yr Developmaent Program,1981-85. Peasibility study completed.

Rsenwi Esenwi Shan 3,110 - Included in 20-Yr Plan. Peasibility study completed.

20-yr Plan: Smll 7 Projects 32,500 - Included in 20-tear Plan. Xokant/Wa, Monglin Valley, Tachileik,

Diversion Projects Pongphakyin, Mongsat and Ryawpwa. Still to be investigated.

Total: Under Consideration - - 69,580 - Almost certainly excludes nany otber projects that have been(incomplete) proposed.

- 80-A'0.'EX BTable B.2 Table B.2

DAM AND RESERVOIR PROJECrS OPERATED OR PROPOSED BY IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT

Location Division/ Irrigablt Year ofState Area (ac) Completion References and Notes

COMPLETED PROJECTS

Meiktila Lake Meiktila Mandalay 46,052 1891/92 Ancient system rehabilitated in 1891/92 and 1924/25. LandComeission in 1956 reported serious siltation problem andMondaing tank constructed to offset loss of storage (see below).

Kyetmauktaung (Pin River) Myingyan 29,786 1967/68 To be provided with aupplementary water under project includedin 20-Year Plan (see below).

Nyaungyan Minhla Meiktila 27,650 1891/92 Ancient system rehabilitated in 1936/37. Also has siltationproblem.

Thitson Yamethin 21,457 1960/61 Project on tributary of Upper Sittang.

Yexin - Pyinmana 16,000 1975/76 Project on tributary of Upper Sittang, aerving the AgriculturalResearch Institute. Supplementary supplies possibly to beprovided from Paunglaung reservoir (see below).

Alaungsithu Meiktilan 11,576 1957/58 Project on tributar y of Samon River.

Mondaing (10,000: 1966/67 Project on tributary of Sanon River above Meiktila tank.Constructed to offset loss of capacity of latter. Irrigatedarea included under Meiktila tank and excluded from total.

No. of Schemes

7,500 - 10,000 acres 3 - 25,348 -

5,000 - 7,500 acres 6 - 39,793 - -

2,500 - 5,000 acres 5 - 16,814 -

Less than 2,500 acres 18 - 20,.153 - -

Minor Irrigation Meiktila/ Mandalsy 25,862 - Minor irrigation in Meiktila and Yamethin undefined in terms of

Yamethin individual projects.

Total: Completed Projects 280,491 Excludes small storage tanks which are integrated intoessentialy diversion systems.

UnDER CONSTRUCTION

Kinds (Nyaunggyat) Myittha Mandalay 113,500 1/ 1986/87 Various Planning and Feasibility Studies. Multipurpose.(Panlaung River) Rehabilitation of existing Panlaung System (88,000 acres)

(Table B.1). Additional irrigation for 113,500 acres and 56 MW ofpower. Storage for dry season cropping. IDA-assisted project.

North Nawin Promn Pegu 96,769 1980/81 Major construction works completed in 1980/81. Additional worksto be carried out include access road and brick lining of canalsto reduce seepage losses.

South Nawin Paukkaung Pegu 62,500 na Feasibility study by Japan ICA, 1980. A pilot irrigation projecthas been completed with grant assistance provided by Japan.Japanese loan provided for detailed design. Loan for constructionunder discussion. Small hydropower component proposed (2.1 MW).Probable implementation in two phases.

Ngaleik Pyinmana Mandalay 20,200 1984/85 To provide irrigation supplies to the Pyinana Integrated SugarProject. Financed by ADS. On tributary of Sittang River.

Mobye Loikaw Kapah 19,942 1982/83 Development below existing hydro-electric dam on tributary of(Baluchaung River) Saiween (Lawpita - 168 MW). 8,500 acres completed by end-1980/81.

Dam operated by Electric Power Corporation. ITrigation works beingconstructed with grant finance from Australia.

Sedawgyi Madaya Mandalay 14,850 V 1982/83 Various Planning and Feasibility Studies. Multipurpose. 25 1MW.(Chaungmagyi River) Rehabilitation of existing Mandalay System (94,850 acres). Also

serves existing Yenatha scheme (18,000 acres). New irrigated aresincludes 14,080 acre pump scheme. Storage for dry season cropping.ADB-assisted project. Although 1982/83 still given as completiondate, delays have occurred and the project is unlikely to becompleted until perhaps 1984/85.

Chau.gmsgyi Pyarbwe Mandalay 9,276 1981/82 Right bank tributary of Irrawaddy - no connection withSedawgyi project. No problem envisaged in completing project in1981/82.

Shwele Paukkaung Pegn 3,600 1982/83 Project financed locally

Total: Under Construction - 340,637 1'

1/ Excluding existing areas (totalling 200,850 acres) which will receive perennial supplies (Panlaung, Mandalay and Yenatha schemes - see Table 1).

- 82. -.

AN'TEX BTable B.Z kcout dT

Table B.2 (cot')ont

Location Division/ Irrigable Year ofState Area (ac) Comoletion References and Notes

UNDER CONSIDERATION (Incomplete)

Dry Zones Tributaries of Irrawaddy

Chindwin S saping & _ Preliminary investigations of a number of dam sites undertakenfor power. Prefeasibility study of Tamanthi project (1,200 MW).Possibility also on Manipur river tributary of Chindwin (500 NW).No specific irrigation development proposed but estimated thatconstruction of Tananthi would allow up to 1.5 n acres of down-stream pump and related development. Manipur basin has up to500,000 acres irrigable land. Other projects on tributaries ofChindwin possible but not seriously investigated.

mth Shwebo Sagaing 501,260 - Planning and feasibility studies from 1953. Included in 20-Yr(368,846 existing) Plan for a total irrigated area of 501,260 acres of which 368,846

acres accounted for by existing Shwebo, Ye U and Old Mu canalsystema (see Table B.1). Multipurpose project, 20 KW. Prirary pur-pose to bring perennial supplies to existing and new irrigatedland. Alternative phasings of project have been reviewed, andrevised costs set at about $600 M. Initial rehabilitation projectproposed in advance of construction of dam. Detailed designs forThapanzeik Dam available since 1972.

Indaw Racuk Segaing 98,800 - Still to be investigated. Included in 20-Yr Plan. Proposed dam(10,131 existing) on river crossing Old Mu canal. Similar projects have in past been

suggested for Linbangya and Teingyein rivers. Area to be servedincludes existing Old Mu system (see Table B.1) and may duplicateareas included under Mu river project (see above).

Mon Pywintbyc Magwe 108,100 - Still to be investigated. Included in 20-Yr Plan. Would provide(96,787 existing) storage to existing Meaoll weir system (Table B.1). Potential

for increasing irrigated area limited but hydroelectric potentialconsiderable (200 MW).

Nan Sagu It 37,458 - Still to be investigated. Sncluded in 20-Yr Plan. Wovld provide(37,458 existing) storage to existing Aigrs wetr systems (Table 3.1). Limited poten-

tial for expanding area. Not being considered for hydro power.

Nyintage (Tesm) Maymo Mandalay 30,000 - Not included as irrigation project in 20-Yr Plan. Main identifited? existing) purpose for power (400 MW). Limited potential for irrigation. Not

yet investigated in detail and thought to have difficult geologicalconditions.

Kyet3auktaung Myingyan Mandalay 29,786 - Project to provide water to existing storage project on Pin(29,786 existing) river from neighboring catchment. Feasibility study under way.

Included in 20-Yr Plan.

SS0on VYlley Vundwtn Mandalay 15,000 - Still to be investigated. Included In 20-Yr Plan. Uncertain( existing) whether duplicates existing development which is extensive

(Alaungsithu, Meiktila tank, Mondaing, etc. see Table B.2).

20-Yr Plan: Small Dams 6 Projects - 19,077 - Indaingtha, Letpan Chaung, Paungnet, Mosatung, Modulating? existing) Reservoirs for Kanna and Taungpulu (existing schemes). Some of

these projects nay be outside Dry Zone area. All still to beinvestigated.

Yin Chaung Basin

Yin Nattauk Msgwe 42,000 - Series of small dams in Yin Chaung basin, a left bank tributary ofSinmundaung Taundwingyi " 5,000 the Irrawaddy in the Dry Zone. Included in 20-Yr Plan. DetailedNgamin n 19,300 designs for Kinmundaung under preparation, and to be included inBagone n n 2,500 Tanks I Project to be financed by IDA. Feasibhlity studies forYinmale n 1,100 Ngamin, Bagone, Yinmale, Sun and Sadon projects being prepared bySun 8,00n Irrigation Department. Yin, Bayon and Taungyo still to be investi-Sadon " 12,500 gated. Possibility of groundwater in Yin Chaung basin being inves-Bayon n 5,500 tigated in connection with possible ADB project.Taungyo n 1,800

Sub-Total 97,700

West Pegu Yoma

Wegyi I Phese 1I Thegon Pegu 81,500 - Series of single purpose dams subject to preliminary investigationsTaunyo ) Natalin 46,700 an Irrawaddy Basin by Japan ICA, 1980. Would follow Nortb Nawin,

South Rawin and Shwele Projects in same area. These I projectOkkan I Taikkyi 76,600 suggested to comprise Okkan, Thonze, Thegaw and Kadinbilin dams.Thonee } Phase I Tharawaddy " 97,600 All but Thonzs discussed by Irrigation Department in 1978 paperThegaw I Letpadan n 31,900 'Meditu Site ReservoIr Project". Wegyi and Taunyo projects onlyKadinbilin I Minhla 46,900 ones included in 20-Yr Plan but still to be investigated and would

comprise proposed Phase II. Gawon, Mimhla and Bawdin - Phase III.Bawdin I Gyobinyauk " 32,100 Ngamoyeik treated separately - would flood substantial settledGawon P hase III Gyobingauk 11,100 area.Mlnhla I Minhla n 19,800

Ngamoyeik blegu n 84.000

Sub-Total 528,200

- 82 -

ANNE! BTable B.2 (cont'd) Table B.2 (cottd)

Location Division/ Irrigable Year ofState Area (ac) Completion References and Notes

East Arakan Yons

Nyaungging ) Padaung Pegu 3,500 _ Series of single purpose dams suggested in preliminary studyBuyo I Phase IV " 12,100 Irrawaddy Basin by Japan ICA, 1980. Not included in 20-Yr Plan.Thaledan I Nyaunachidauk 6,200 Development proposed in four phases as shown. As far as is

known, no detailed investigations carried out, and lesa likelyAlon=oyak Kyangin 19,800 to be implemented in foreseeable future than West Pegu Yons dame.North Yun I Phase II i 13,100Phatashin } n 7,400

Manys 1a Myanaung Irrawaddy 21,000Ryanyin | Phase I Ingabu 40,500Mankathu | " 41,200Nankathu } 49,400

Gyat I Lenyethna 49,400Mezali Phase III In 46,900South Run } Yeyi 47,900Ryet Paung 4,90

Sub-Total 363,300

Mon State

Thayagone - Mon 2 - Series of snall dams in Non State on west flank of TenasserimDawe 1,;200 Yons. Azin project being subject to detailed design and to beAzin 4,300 included with Rinsundaung (see above) in IDA financed Tanks ICyongyongya 1,iO0 project. Feasibility study for Winpanon under preparation byThantadagyi n 1,7O0 Irrigation Department and may include scall power component.Tetagun 1,4oo Other projects still to be investigated although included in 20-YrKamawet 5,400 Plan.Winpanon 19.450Abit 20, 00Hnipadaw 12,1)00

Sub-Total 72,5)50

Sittang Valley

Paunglaung Mandalay/Pegu 250,000 Included in 20-Yr Plan which gives potential of 700,000 acres,Interim Report (November 1981) by Norconsult of irrigation poten-tial below Paunglaung I hydro project (up to 300 mw) suggests(a) maximum area that could be irrigated from Paunglaung riverwould he 250,000 acres, and (b) reviews alternatives for develop-ment below proposed hydro project of up to about 150,000 acres.Latter includes supplewentary supplies for irrigated ares servedby YTmin and Ngsleik dam (see above). P-unglaung II hydro alsopossible which could lead to additional irrigation development.Original proposal of Sittang Valley Water Resources mster plan(1964) to divert sater north to Sanon Valley no longer beingconsidered,

*enwe-Pyuntsza Dait u Pegu 120,000 - Included in 20-Yi Plan which gives potential of 450,000 acres.Peasibility study by Selkkozpronexport, USSR, in 1977. Updatedby Nippon Koei it, 1981 which recommenda a single dam to serve120,000 acres, and provide 16.2 MW and important flood protectionbenefits.

Sinthe Tetkon Mandalay 32,400 - Single purpose project recommended by UNDP consultants. Feasibi-lity Study completed. In same area as Yezin and Thitson dams,in northern Sittang Valley. Not included in 20-Yr Plan. Aban-doned apparently because area to be served would be much lowerthan the 90,000 acres originally expected.

Other Sittang Basin Projects

Swa Sva Pegu 69,000 - Other projects identified in context of UNDP Water ResourcesRabaung Toungoo 135,000 Planning Study for Sittang Valley Development. Potential areasThaukgegat Tantabin 110,000 derived from "UNDP: Water Resources Management and ProjectPyu Pyu 225,000 Development, 1979. Report BUR/74/039. Working Document 5'.Yun Pyu 246,000 Mtay overstate potential areas. Many of these projects primarilyBawgats tyaukkyi 170,000 to be considered for power, notably Thaukyegat (255 MW),Schwegyin Schwegyin n Yun (84 Mw), Bawgata (168 MW), and Pyu (65 MW).Baingda ? 46,7)0Kawliya Daik U 24,500Pegu ? 180,030

Sub-Total 1,206,220

Total: Under Consideration 3,510,231

(Incomplete - Including Existing Areas)

- 83 -

ANNEX B

TableB. .3

1/PUMP AND GROUNDWATER PROJECTS OPERATED OR PROPOSEI 3Y IRRIGATION DEPARTYENT

.cation Division/ Irrigable Year ofState Area (ac) Completion References and Notes

COMPLITED PROJECTS

Letpanchibaw Pump Nyingyan Mandalay 1,000 1964

Sameikkon Pump W1.00 1965/66

Total- Completed Projects 2,500 Possibly eacludes other small Pump schemes.

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Minor Pumps Project 3 Schemes Hagwe/ 23,845 1985/86 The 5-Year Development Program 1981-85 gives 44,000 acres(ADB)(Phase 1) Pegu bat probably includes projects not taken up by ADB in Phase I

(see below). The 1980/81 Report to the Pyithu Hluttaw states400 acres completed by end 1980/81.

Pump Irrigation Project finbu Yagve 1.500 VA Local pump project with pumping from Irrawaddy.

Total: Under Construction 25,345

UNDER CONSIDERATION

Her-ada Pump BRteada Irrawaddy 68,200 - Project for large-scale irrigation development of the Natmaw Plains(up to 65,000 acres) proposed by ULG Consultants in December 1979.Further processing suspended until doubts concerning the technicalviability of puop intake site are resolved. Sir William Nalerowand Partners (January 1982) recomoend pilot project (up to 16.000acres) to help obtain technical solution.

Minor Pumps (Phase II) - Nag"e 45,000 - ADB SAR Proposed investigations for seven schemes (81,500 ac)leading to project of 40-50,000 acres. Follow-up to Phase IDevelopment Program (see above).

Chaung 1 Chaung U Saguing 30.000 - To serve up to 30,000 acres -of land being protected by on-goingChaung U flood protection project (see Table B.4).

Sheinmaga Pump Sheinsaga Sagaing 30,000 o On the West Bank of Irrawaddy above Its confluence with the mu.lindiately to south of Shwebo Irrigation System.

Tubewell I Mom Sagaing 8.000(?) - Groundwater Development Consultants (CDC) currently investigatingthree areas. Monywa-Chaung U Project given as 205,000 acres gross.Priority area in 5-Yr Development Program 1981-85. Location ofproposed IDA-financed Tubevell I Project which will include about90 new wells and electrification of these and existing pilot wells.Possibole areas for phase II, Wundwin Takton in Mandalay Division(415,000 acres gross), and Yinnabin Pale in Sagaing Division(252,000 acres gross). GDC to extend investigations in Sagainsincluding into lower reaches of Ye U camml command for whichconjunctive use of groundwater and surface supplies will beconsidered.

Total: Under Consideration 181,200 Excludes pump schene (14,850 acres) under Sedawgyi project(incomplete) (Table 2), Groundwater Phase II, and all private pump irrigation.

Probably.also excludes other pump schemes under consideration.

i/ The promotion of private/cooperative and other small scale pump and groundwater schemes is the responsibility of other departments and agencies, in-cluding Agricultural Corporation, Agricultural mechanication Department, Working People's Settlement Department and Ministry of Cooperatives. TheAgricultural Mechanization Department was the executing agency for the smell pumps sub-component of the IDA-supported Irrigation I Project (Cr. 483-BA).

- 84 -

ANNbX B

Table 8.4

FLOOD PROTECTION AND DRAINAGE PROJECTS OPERATED OR PPOPOSED 3Y IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT

Location Division/ Protected Year ofState Area (ac) Comoletion References and lotes

COMPLETED PROJECTS

Sittang Valley S Delta (East of PeguRiver)

Pegu Sittang Canal Pegu Pegu 44,5.98 1878

Pagaing Eabankmnt ' 97,158 1878

Pyuntaz- plain: River ' 116,072 1928Training

Sittang Rnbanknent 52,434 1883/84

Minor Embankment Work 50 Schemes Pegu/ 169,098 - Baw Chaung scheme in Rangoon Division included in IDA's Paddy-Rangoon landa IT Project see bel.o.

Sub-total 49,7i7*

Irrawaddy Delta

Irrawaddy Embankment Renzada Irravaddy 782,4 5I 1881/82

Irrawaddy Cast Eob. 114,266 1960/61

Swingauk Keethaung Zmb. " 61,Z05 r

Pasyagyigon 1a-aungbin Emb. C 61,312 1963/64

Thongwa Island 5mb. Maubin C 32,275 1898/99 Also inaluded in IDA's Paddylands 1I Project - me. below.

Msubin Island Etb. 142,809 1880/81

Yandoon Island Eab. 57,616 1922/23

Pammawaddy Flood Prot. Sinon 19,90) 1975/76 Scheme completed in 1975/76.

Tam2taks. tnbankment Pyapon 13,253 1926

Mokkyun Flood Prot. Ranthawaddy Rangoon 70,001) 1972/73

Minor Flood Prot. Works 4 Sghemes - 23,100) 1977/78

Minor Embanknent Works 68 Schemes - 291,224 - Sam of these schem.s included in IDA's Paddysands I and II projects

-see below.Sub-total 1,569,441-

Arakas. Dlpper Burma and Other Locations

Nagatcin Paukpin Emb. Ionywa Sagaing 2f5,446 1964/65

Arakan Flood Prot. Works - Arsken 11,928 1974/75 Phase It currently under construction (as below).Phase I

Minor rebaek. Works 52 Sehm - 82,202 -

Sub-total 119,576

Drainage Works

Letpaubin Ngwedaung Lolkaw Eaysh 14,000 ?Reclamation Ares

Minor Drainage Works 122 Schems - 441.599

Sub-total 455'599

Total: Conpleted Projects - - 2,724,346,

- 85 -

ANSEX3

TabTe S.4 (cnt 'd)

Table B.4 (cnnt'd)

Location Division/ Protected Year ofState Area (ac) Coepletion References and Notes

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Paddvlands I Project

Shwelaung Wakena Irrawaddy 38,000 1983/84 Approximately 66% of civil works completed by end-1981. OriginalKyet-Pha-Rnwe-Zaung Fyapon 23,500 cop letion date 1981/82 but now scheduled for 1983/84. Some ofOther Pyapon " 43,800 these areas also include schemes already included under completedBetut Laputta n 40,700 schemes (see above). Marginal adjustments to the protected areasAlegyun Ngapudaw " 15,200 are expected.Daunggyi I. Bogale "23800

Sub-total 185,000

Paddylands II Project

Thongwa Island Maubin Irravaddy 59,000 1985/86 Approximately 16X of civil works conpleted by end-1981. ThongwuDaunggyi II Bogale 51,000 island scheme includes existing project (see above), and otherLabutta Lubutta n 30,000 schemes also include minor existing schemes to be rehabilitated.Bawchaung Syrisa Rangoon 35.000 " Marginal adjustments to the protected areas are expected.

Sub-total 175,000

Pyingyi Island Laung Lon ? 4,500 1982/83 Locally financed.

Chaung U Flood Prot. Chautg U Sagaing 10,000 Locally financed project to protect flooded area on East Balk ofChindwin. Could be combined with pump irrigation scheme (seeTable 8.3).

Arakan Flood Prnt. Phase II - Arakan 22,793 Small projects in Arakan. Follows Phase I completed in 1974/73.Locally financed.

Total: Under Construction 397,293 Includes some areas included under completed projects.

uhDER CONSIDERATION (incomplete)

Xawmhu Reclametion Project - Irrawaddy 230,000 - Included in 5-Year Plan Development Progrra 1981-85 as 'Paddyla.dsI11' project. Preparation report now under way. FeasibilityStudies and overall delta hydrology investigated by Sir WilliamRalcrow and Partners who conclude that up to 1.75 - 2.00 M acresof land could be protected by empoldering in the lower and middledelta without adverse effects on the hydrological regime. FurtherDroinage asd Land Protection Projects in the Delta can thereforebe eavisaged.

Ranthawaddy Flood Pro. Yonthawaddy angoon 27S,877 -

Pegu District Flood Pro. Pegn Pego 10,00 - (

Daxinkyun Daunggi Ngaputa ? 12,000 -Projects included in 20-Year Plan. Still to be investigated.

Ma Mys Chaung Flood Pro. Henzada Irrawaddy 26,660 -

Bawdi and Danoke Drainage Pantanv ? 56,000 -

Kunseik Embakment Schwegyin Pegn 3,277 -

Total: Under Consideration 786,814 Excludes other areas under consideration, in particular further(incomplete) drainage and land reclamation projects in the Irrawaddy delta

and the lover Sittang Valley. Many proposed storage projects(Table B.2) have flood protection components.