workshop proceedings jakarta flood risk management 2012
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing the Risks of DisasteRs in east asia anD the Pacific
Flood Risk Managementand Urban ResilienceWorkshop
May 2-3, 2012Jakarta, Indonesia
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS
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2012 The World Bank
The International Bank or Reconstruction and Development
The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA
June 2012
Disclaimer: This report is a product o the sta o the World Bank with external contributions. The fndings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views o the World Bank, its Board o Executive Directors, or the governmentsthey represent, or those o the National Disaster Emergency Agency o the Republic o Korea.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy o the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinormation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgments on the part o the World Bank concerning the legal status o anyterritory or the endorsement or acceptance o such boundaries.
Design: [email protected]
Cover photos: Anna Burzykowska. Map: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.Back Cover photos: Let/Rinsan Tobing; Anna Burzykowska. Map: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.
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Contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... 2
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 4
OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS.................................................................................................... 7
Stean G. Koeberle, Country Director or Indonesia, World Bank ....................................................... 7
Bang Ki-Sung, Deputy Administrator, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA),Republic o Korea.............................................................................................................................. 8
Fauzi Bowo, Governor o DKI Jakarta ................................................................................................ 9
PRESENTATION SUMMARIES
Session I: Overview o Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Managementor the 21st Century ................................................................................................................................ 11
Session II: Show cases rom Countries/Cities .............................................................................................. 12
Panel Session 1: Understanding Flood Hazard and Its Impact ............................................................. 12
Panel Session 2: The Components o Integrated Flood Risk Management .......................................... 18
Session III: The International Development Partner View ............................................................................ 24
Special Session: Flood Preparedness Mapping Presentation ........................................................................ 29
Session IV: Implementing Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management ......................................................... 32
Session V: Challenges, Opportunities and Risks ......................................................................................... 34
Session VI: Follow-up and the Way Forward .............................................................................................. 37
Special Session: Field Trip .......................................................................................................................... 39
ANNEX 1: Workshop Agenda ................................................................................................................ 41
List o Figures
Figure 1 Cities and Flooding ..................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 2 Thailand Flood Risk and Drought Risk Areas ............................................................................. 13
Figure 3 Case Study Structural Countermeasures................................................................................... 15
Figure 4 Ho Chi Minh City Strategy Analysis .......................................................................................... 19
Figure 5 Jakarta Sea Wall Rehabilitation Plan ......................................................................................... 21
Figure 6 Japan Comprehensive Flood Management Reserve Water in the City .................................... 22
Figure 7 Decision-Support System in the Republic o Korea ...................................................................... 25
Figure 8 A Comparison o the Deterministic Approach and the Probabilistic Approach ............................. 27
Figure 9 Case study: Ho Chi Minh City Urban Risk Management ........................................................... 28
List o Boxes
Box 1 Guiding Principles or an Integrated Urban Risk Management ......................................................... 12
Box 2 Lessons rom GEJE 2011 ................................................................................................................. 26
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
2
Acronyms and Abbreviations
AIFDR Australia-Indonesia Facility or Disaster Risk Reduction
ARC American Red Cross
ARWS Automated Rainall Warning System
BMG Badan Meteorologi dan Geofsika (Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics Body)
BNPB Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana Indonesia (Indonesia National Agency or DisasterManagement)
CCA Climate change adaptation
CoP Community o Practice
CSR Corporate social responsibility
DKI Daerah Khusus Ibukota (Special Capital Region)
DRM Disaster risk management
DRR Disaster risk reduction
EAP East Asia and PacifcEO Earth observation
ENSO El Nio-Southern Oscillation
GFDRR Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recovery
GEJE Great East Japan Earthquake
GIS Geographic Inormation System
HAII Hydro and Agro Inormatics Institute
IDM Iterative decision making
InaSAFE Indonesia Scenario Assessment or Emergencies
InSAR Intererometric Synthetic Aperture Radar
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
JUFMP Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation ProgramLGU Local Government Unit
MENA Middle East and North Arica
MoPAS Ministry o Public Administration and Security
MoU Memorandum o Understanding
NEMA National Emergency Management Agency
NDMC National Disaster Management Committee
NDMI National Disaster Management Institute
NDMO National Disaster Management Ofce
NGO Nongovernmental organization
NGPES National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy
PPP Public Private Partnership
P.R. China Peoples Republic o China
PT Perseroan Terbatas/ Limited Liability Company
SCFC Steering Center o Flood Control
Sqkm Square kilometer
UNOCHA United Nations Ofce or the Coordination o Humanitarian Aairs
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The organization o the workshop in Jakarta was led by the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) team in the East
Asia and Pacifc (EAP) region o the World Bank, supported by GFDRR and unded by the Republic o Korea. The
team is grateul or the organizational support o the World Bank Disaster Risk Management team in Jakarta.
This report summarizes the presentations and discussions which took place as part o the Flood Risk Manage-
ment and Urban Resilience Workshop in Jakarta, Indonesia in May 2012. The report was compiled by Eiko
Wataya and Irene Wijaya.
The graphic design o this publication was carried out by Miki Fernandez, Ultradesigns.
Acknowledgements
Photo
byThinkstock.com
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
oto by Thinkstock.com. September 2, 2010 - Tropical Storm Kompasu over Korea and China.
The Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop, heldon May 2-3, 2012 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia, broughttogether over 50 policy makers rom national and local levels rom
seven East Asian countries (Indonesia, Laos PDR, the Philippines, Viet-nam, Thailand, China and the Republic o Korea), as well as experts,donors and partner organizations. The workshop was held to increasetechnical knowledge, share good practice rom around the region, andoster a community o committed leaders dealing with ood risks.
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May 2-3, 2012 / Jakarta, Indonesia / WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS
The Flood Risk Management and Urban Resil-
ience Workshop, held on May 2-3, 2012
at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia,
brought together over 50 policy makers rom
national and local levels rom seven East Asian coun-
tries (Indonesia, Laos PDR, the Philippines, Vietnam,
Thailand, China and the Republic o Korea), as well as
experts, donors and partner organizations. The work-
shop was held to increase technical knowledge, share
good practice rom around the region, and oster a
community o committed leaders dealing with flood
risks.
The workshop is part o a comprehensive program
known as the Joint program implementation o
subregional projects in Asia an initiative sup-
ported by the Republic o Korea and the World Bank/
Global Facility or Disaster Reduction and Recovery
(GFDRR). The program is implemented in 15 coun-
tries and includes three subregional projects ocusing
on the issues o Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF)
in the Himalayan region, Typhoons in the Pacifc, and
Flooding and Resilience in East Asia. The organization
o the workshop in Jakarta was led by the Disaster
Risk Management (DRM) team in the East Asia and
Pacifc (EAP) region o the World Bank, supported by
GFDRR, and unded by the Republic o Korea. This
flagship program supports knowledge sharing, tech-
nology transer, capacity development, and learning
specifc to strengthening flood risk management and
urban resilience.
The workshop, which was held as part o a series o
launch events, is the frst step towards implement-
ing the recommendations presented in the recently
published World Bank report Cities and Flooding: A
Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management
or the 21st Century.1 Echoing the key messages o
the report, this two-day training event strengthened
the knowledge o participants on the issues acing
1 World Bank Guidebook Cities and Flooding can down-loaded rom the ollowing website: www.gdrr.org/urbanflooding.
their cities and dwellers, and inormed them o the
measures currently being implemented by various
countries in the region.2 The event highlighted the
ollowing global best practices and lessons learned in
the feld o urban flood risk management:
Accurate identication and communication o
disaster risks to stakeholders, particularly policy
makers, is crucial. Sophisticated technologies and
detailed data are available to identiy disaster risks.
Nevertheless, due to rapid urbanization, complexi-
ties o the urban environment and climate change,risks can never be ully ascertained. The development
o multiple risk scenarios based on available data is
an important step in understanding the probability
and consequences o risks. Accurate communica-
tion o risk inormation to key stakeholders is a vital
step in allowing policy makers to make inormed
decisions on structural and non-structural flood risk
management measures. It also allows the public to
understand the risks that it is acing and decide on
appropriate actions or behaviors. Graphical inorma-
tion o risks, which can be created based on dierent
scenarios, is considered as a preerable decision-sup-
port tool or policy makers and disaster managers.
The use o open-source data and applications would
contribute to the sustainability o an integrated flood
risk management system.
Lack o coordination among stakeholders is one
o the most common challenges in food risk
management. A lack o coordination oten exists
between government levels, sectoral agencies, gov-
ernments and NGOs, and the private sector and
developers. Increased coordination may lead to stan-
dardized data ormats, procedures, and tools or risk
analysis, harmonized policies and regulations, and
identifcation o joint or complementary programs,
which can subsequently enhance the eectiveness
and sustainability o chosen flood risk manage-
ment measures. Coordination among government
2 All the presentations can downloaded rom the ollow-ing website: http://www.gdrr.org/gdrr/node/1185.
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
6
agencies can be improved by mainstreaming flood
risk management into the sustainable development
agenda. This can provide each agency with a com-
mon, yet specifc, higher-level goal that directly or
indirectly addresses flood risks.
Appropriate incentives are necessary to addressthe political and social context o food risk man-
agement. The adoption o a flood risk management
agenda is shaped by the specifc political context. Pol-
iticians, the private sector, and developers respond to
incentives. Appropriate incentives must be identifed
and used to promote the adoption and implemen-
tation o flood risk management among stakehold-
ers, such as politicians and policy makers, the public
and private sectors and developers. A social develop-
ment approach, incorporating incentives as well as
law enorcement, is required to influence the behav-ior o populations living in high-risk areas, especially
the poor and socially disadvantaged.
Robustness is a key consideration in striking a
balance between structural and non-structural
measures. Rapid and unplanned urbanization, cli-
mate change, and the complexity o urban systems
are generating uncertainties linked to current and
uture risks. Structural (hard-engineered) measures
ace certain limitations as they are costly and can only
eectively address hazard up to a certain level. Struc-
tural measures may ail in the ace o unprecedented
hazard, which is always a probability. Non-struc-
tural (non-engineered) measures are more cost-efcient and can be highly eective in reducing the
consequence o hazards. A combination o structural
and non-structural measures is thereore required to
build a robust flood risk management system that
can accommodate residual risk, uncertainties, and
extremities.
A number o ollow-up actions were identied
to implement an integrated food risk manage-
ment approach in the countries participating at
the workshop. A virtual system will be put in place
as an initial orm o a community o practice (CoP)or urban flood risk management to encourage ur-
ther peer-to-peer knowledge exchange and oster
regional cooperation. This report summarizing the
proceedings o the workshop serves as a knowledge
resource or participants, as well as those members
o the public that are interested in flood risk manage-
ment and urban resilience.
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Workshop participants.
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Jakarta is oten conronted with requent flood-
ing, and has taken bold steps to address the
issue, notably by ocusing on the social aspects o
communities at risk. The World Bank is privileged
to provide support and assistance to the city o
Jakarta as part o its flood mitigation eorts.
The theme o this workshop flood risk man-agement and urban resilience is very pertinent
considering the requency o the occurrence and
the impact o flooding in recent years in many
o the rapidly growing cities in developing coun-
tries. With a higher degree o economic inte-
gration and connectivity in the East Asia and
Pacifc (EAP) region, major flooding in one city
will unortunately have signifcant economic and
social impacts in other cities, regions, and coun-
tries.
The World Bank sees rapid urbanization as bothan opportunity and a challenge. Urbanization
creates opportunities or increasing economic
growth and poverty reduction. At the same time,
with the imminent threat o climate change and
increased vulnerability to disasters, urbanization
also potentially exposes a greater number o peo-
ple to the risk o serious catastrophic events.
The single solution model o flood control using
structural mitigation measures is very expensive
and oten creates new problems, both upstream
and downstream. With one o the highest eco-
nomic growth rates in the world, the region has a
unique opportunity to consider flood mitigation
as a sound investment that not only has a direct
economic value but also contributes to prevent-ing losses.
City representatives, national governments, and
private sectors participating in the workshop
were invited to exchange their views and experi-
ences in addressing urban flooding problems and
building resilience. There is much innovation in
the region that can be shared in this orum, with
opportunities to scale up and replicate successul
experiences in other cities as well, while at the
same time avoiding the mistakes o the past.
This initiative is one o the many South-South
knowledge exchange opportunities that are
being encouraged in the East Asia region, espe-
cially across low- and middle-income coun-
tries acing similar problems. The World Bank
is very happy and privileged to acilitate these
exchanges.
OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS
Stean G. Koeberle,Country Director orIndonesia, WorldBank
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
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Flood risk in the Asia Region, especially in the
South East Asia, is signifcant. The region is highly
prone to various typhoons and storms. Urban
flooding has in recent years become acute due
to extreme weather events. Flooding hinders
growth in individual countries, the region, and
the world.
In this context, this workshop is a very important
event as the experience o participants will pro-
vide good guidance or flood risk management
and disaster resilience in South East Asia.
In 2010, the Republic o Korea hosted the 4th
Asian Ministerial Conerence on Disaster Risk
Reduction (AMCDRR) in Incheon, with the sup-
port o GFDRR. NEMA and the World Bank have
signed a MoU on the implementation o the
Incheon Agreement and Action Plan, which was
adopted by all Asian ministers during this minis-
terial conerence.
This workshop is part o a comprehensive pro-
gram that supports three subregional projects in
Asia ocused on flood risk management. These
projects are being implemented in 15 countries
and regions and include the Glacier Lake Outburst
Flood (GLOF) project in the Himalayan region,
typhoons in the Pacifc region, and the East Asia
Program on Flooding. This unique regional-level
program supports knowledge sharing, technol-
ogy transer, capacity development, and learning
on flood risk management and disaster resil-
ience. This unique program or the Republic o
Korea and GFDRR has been expanded to other
parts o the region.
Bang Ki-Sung,Deputy Administrator,National EmergencyManagement Agency(NEMA), Republic oKorea
OPENING AND WELCOME REMARKS
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The publication o Cities and Flooding: a Guide
o Urban Flood Risk Management or the 21st
Century, which provides guidance on the prob-
lem o flooding in the urban environment, is long
overdue.
One o the greatest challenges aced in Jakarta
today is climate change.
When Jakarta suered massive floods in 2007,
it paralyzed the city or fve days and orced
more than 400,000 people to leave their homes,
resulting in an estimated loss o US$635 mil-
lion; the people who suered the most were the
urban poor. At the time, the city administration
o Jakarta was still struggling with land acquisi-
tion to complete the construction o the Eastern
Flood Canal. The construction o this canal in the
East o Jakarta was not only ocused on build-
ing inrastructure, but also about reviving river-
ine communities which had been devastated by
annual floods. The completion o the East Flood
Canal in 2010 has successully reduced flooding
by 30 percent in Jakarta and improved the lives
o 2.5 million people.
Flood risk management implemented by cities
and local government is crucial. Cities and local
governments have the opportunity to design
solutions that are adaptable to the needs o their
local communities and are consistent with local
policies and priorities. There is increasing rec-
ognition that cities and urban regions are key
engines in the economic growth o countries and
regions, and that flood reduction plays an inte-
gral part in this.
Jakarta has been orced to be innovative in com-
ing up with solutions. For example, to be sae
rom the threat o climate change and flood-
ing, Jakarta must fnd an area o 50 sqkm to
accommodate excess water that causes floods.
At the same time Jakarta is experiencing sub-
stantial land subsidence due to the extraction o
ground water. Parts o Jakarta have subsided 2
meters, and there is no urther room or the city
to expand. Jakarta is thereore planning to con-
struct a giant sea wall in the bay o Jakarta.
An integrated approach is being taken with
regard to climate change and the environment;
this approach takes into account human and
welare dimensions. Eradicating poverty and
addressing welare issues must go hand in hand
with managing floods.
Jakartas experience shows that the success
o flood risk management lies in community
involvement. Policy makers and urban develop-
ment experts must listen to the communities and
empower them so that they can be part o the
solution.
Fauzi Bowo,Governor o DKIJakarta
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
PRESENTATION SUMMARIES
10
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1
Session I: Overview o Cities andFlooding: A Guide to IntegratedUrban Flood Risk Managementor the 21st Century
Abhas K. Jha, Lead Urban Specialist and
Program Leader, Disaster Risk Management or
the World Bank East Asia and Pacifc Region
Flooding is the most common o all natural disasters.
Flooding is an Asian phenomenon, as 90 percent
o people aected by floods live in Asia. Rapid and
unplanned urbanization in the region is a signifcantcontributing actor to flood disaster, as it puts more
people and assets in harms way. With the currently
staggering growth o urban areas in many countries,
urban flooding is going to be a growing challenge
or development and poverty reduction in the com-
ing decades.
The Cities and Flooding guidebook proposes an inte-grated approach to urban flood risk management.
The guidebook targets practitioners and people
on the ground dealing with issues related to urban
flooding. It oers operational guidance and includes
over 50 case studies, how-to sections, and 12 guid-
ing principles that illustrate the state-o-the-art on
integrated urban flood risk management.
Among the 12 principles, listed in Box 1, there areimportant points to highlight. Principle 6 statesthat it is impossible to entirely eliminate the risk
o flooding. This is particularly important as it sig-nals a shit away rom the myth that we can buildour way to saety. Preparedness or an unexpectedhazard level is always necessary. Inrastructure andsystems should be designed in such a manner as toallow them to ail graceully should an unexpectedhazard occur. Principle 11 states that continu-ous communication to raise awareness and rein-orce preparedness is necessary. Peoples memoryo disasters is short, so communication tools areneeded to keep these memories alive and ensurethat people behave in an appropriate manner. Risk
inormation, in the orm o flood hazard maps andflood orecasting, is also a very worthy investmentto increase disaster preparedness.
Decision making should be based on robustness,and a proper balance should be achieved betweenstructural and non-structural measures. Exampleso non-structural measures include the Whenflooded turn around dont drown campaign inthe United States, the German Flood Control Act2005, the LiFE project and the Pacifc CatastropheRisk Assessment and Financing Initiative. An example
o mixed measures is the Integrated Flood Risk Man-agement initiative in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
The way orward and challenges on the implementa-
tion o an integrated flood risk management relies on
the identifcation o appropriate instruments, invest-
ments, and incentives.
Cities and Flooding
A Guide to Integrated UrbanFlood Risk Management for
the 21st Century
A Summary for Policy Makers
Abhas K Jha | Robin BlochJessica Lamond
THE WORLD BANK
:
Figure 1 Cities and Flooding
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
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Session II: Show cases romCountries/Cities
Panel Session 1: Understanding FloodHazard and Its Impact
Moderator: Victor Rembeth
Speakers:
Dr. Royol Chitradon, Hydro and Agro
Inormatics Institute (HAII), Thailand
Khamhou Phanthavong, Ministry o Agriculture
and Forestry, Lao PDR
Catalina E, Cabral Ph.D., Department o Public
Works and Highways, the Philippines
Yumei Deng, Ministry o Water Resources, P.R.
China
Dr. Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility or
Disaster Reduction, Jakarta.
Key Points
Rapid urbanization is the root o many actors
contributing to urban flood risk.
Multi-hazard and bottom-up participatory
approaches are crucial or the implementation
o efcient and eective measures. Communi-
ties need to be empowered to actively contribute
to the design and implementation o flood man-
agement measures.
A social perspective should be integrated into
flood risk management measures. Law enorce-
ment alone may not be eective in changing
human behavior.
Proper tools and appropriate technologies are
crucial in understanding flood hazards and their
impacts.
Inormation on flood risk and potential impacts
must be made openly available or decision mak-
ing purposes, preerably using open-source data
and applications to improve sustainability.
BOX 1. Guiding Principles or anIntegrated Urban Risk Management
1. Every flood risk scenario is dierent: thereis no flood management blueprint.
2. Designs or flood management must beable to cope with a changing and uncer-tain uture.
3. Rapid urbanization requires the integra-tion o flood risk management into regu-lar urban planning and governance.
4. An integrated strategy requires the use oboth structural and non-structural mea-sures and good metrics or getting thebalance right.
5. Heavily engineered structural measurescan transer risk upstream and down-
stream. It is impossible to entirely elimi-nate the risk rom flooding.
6. Many flood management measures havemultiple co-benefts over and above theirflood management role.
7. It is important to consider the wider socialand ecological consequences o floodmanagement spending.
8. Clarity o responsibility or constructingand running flood risk programs is critical.
9. Implementing flood risk managementmeasures requires multi-stakeholdercooperation.
10. Continuous communication to raiseawareness and reinorce preparedness isnecessary.
11. Plan to recover quickly ater flooding anduse the recovery to build capacity.
Source: Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban
Flood Risk Management or the 21st Century.
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1
Climate Change Technology Needs and
Community Water Management in
Northeastern Thailand
Dr. Royol Chitradon, Hydro and AgroInormatics Institute (HAII), Ministry o Science
and Technology, Thailand
Thailand has experienced an increasing trend o rain-
all intensity and variability that causes some areas to
suer both droughts and floods, sometimes in the
same year (see Figure 2). Extreme events, such as
the ENSO cycle, have occurred more requently. This
signifcantly aects the agricultural sector in Thai-
land. Only 17 percent o Thailands agricultural land
is irrigated, while the rest is rain-ed. It is thereore
important or Thailand to properly manage its water
resources.
Thailand needs to simultaneously manage both
droughts and floods in order to avoid redundant
investments and ensure water security or all user
groups, both at the macro-level or irrigated agri-
cultural areas, industrial sector and urban/municipal
areas, and at the micro level or rain-ed agricul-
tural areas. Thailand has worked with other coun-
tries, including China and multilateral organizations,
to reach a better understanding o water cycles and
improve seasonal projections. To address challenges
in inrastructure development, orest conservation
and management o catchment areas, Thailand is
currently adopting a bottom-up approach at the
micro level by identiying best practices and strength-
ening them with the help o low-cost open source
GIS mapping and micro irrigation systems.
The bottom-up community-level approach adopted
in water management in northeastern Thailand can
Figure 2 Thailand - Flood Risk and Drought Risk Areas
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Royol Chitradon, Department o Disaster Prevention and Mitigation.
Low flooding risk area
Medium flooding risk area
High flooding risk area
Dam and Reservior
Main river
Regional boundary
Low drought risk area
Medium drought risk area
High drought risk area
No risk area
Dam and Reservior
Main river
Regional boundary
Flood risk area Drought risk area
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Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience Workshop
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be considered as best practice. Northeastern Thailand
covers an area o 166,370 sqkm and is crossed by the
Kong, Chi and Moon rivers; the region experiences
floods and droughts as a result o increasing rainall
and seasonal variability. The construction o large res-
ervoirs is not easible or topographical reasons. Sim-
ple community-based traditional micro inrastructure
was considered the most cost-eective solution.
In the Ban Limthong Community Water Management
in Burirum province, measures such as dredging, ren-
ovating waterways, building network o people and
utilizing technology to plan production processes,
have successully tripled the income o villages and
reduced the requency o floods and droughts. This
community water management practice has been
replicated in other areas. Through networking and
cooperation, the number o villages (rais) applying
community water resource management is expected
to increase rom 3,000-4,000 rais to about 60,000
rais over a period o 5 to 6 years.
The above concept orms part o the Monkey Cheek
initiative launched by the King o Thailand; this ini-
tiative promotes a multi-hazard community-level
approach in local water retention systems.
Status o Lao PDRs Flood Risk
Management and Case Studies
Khamhou Phanthavong, Ministry o Agriculture
and Forestry, Lao PDR
Lao PDR regularly experiences floods and droughts.
River basin floods in areas located along the Mekong
River and its tributaries, as well as flash floods in
mountainous regions, are common. It is estimated
that the south and central regions, where about two
thirds o the countrys population live, experience an
average o 1.5 serious floods or droughts every year.
As a developing country with a per capita income oUS$753, Lao PDR struggles to provide the human-
itarian response and recovery eorts required or
most sectors to reach the pre-disaster level. Given
the signifcant changes in the regional mean temper-
ature and rainall, Lao PDR will ace even bigger chal-
lenges in natural resource management, especially in
water and orest resources that are major drivers o
its economy.
Disaster risk management (DRM) has been integrated
into Lao PDRs development plans, namely the Lao
National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy
(NGPES-2004) and the Lao PDRs Sixth National Socio-
Economic Development Plan (2006-2010). DRM will
also be integrated into the Seventh National Socio-
Economic Development Plan and the Country Part-
nership Strategy which is currently being prepared.
The latter document will include environment, cli-
mate change and disaster management as its priority.
Institutional structures have also been put in place.
The National Disaster Management Committee
(NDMC), an inter-ministerial committee was estab-
lished in 1999 to develop policies and coordinate
disaster risk reduction activities throughout the coun-
try. A National Disaster Management Ofce (NDMO),
under the Ministry o Labor and Social Welare, was
established in 2000 to serve as the secretariat o
NDMC.
Lao PDR is committed to implementing its disaster
risk reduction eorts. It acknowledges the support o
its development DRM partners, and will continue to
urther develop and scale up its disaster preparedness
programs to strengthen national and local capacity to
manage and cope with uture natural disasters.
Structural Measures or Flood Managementin the Philippines
Catalina E. Cabral Ph.D., Department o Public
Works and Highways, the Philippines
The Philippines is ranked third among the highest
risk countries in Asia or floods. Despite the gov-
ernments commitment to flood risk management,
challenges still exist in the areas o inrastructure con-
struction and maintenance, watershed/river basin
management, land use planning, strengthening o
institutional and local capacities or flood mitiga-tion, orecasting technology, governance and law
enorcement, mapping or decision making support
purposes, public and private sector awareness, and
understanding the impacts o climate change.
National flood risk management strategies have been
integrated into the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management Act o 2010, Climate Change Act
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o 2009 and the Philippine Development Plan 2011-
2016. A National Disaster Risk Reduction and Man-
agement Council was created as an eort to move
away rom a top-down approach towards a bottom-
up participatory approach or disaster risk reduction,
ollowing the shit rom disaster response to a more
integrated approach o social and human devel-
opment, and a stronger ocus on the vulnerability
aspect o disasters. The Climate Change Commis-
sion is working closely with the National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council, both o which
are chaired by the President, in the areas o gover-
nance, capacity development, knowledge manage-
ment, and risk and vulnerability reduction. There is
also a stronger push towards empowering local gov-
ernments and civil societies in DRM.
A case study ocusing on the 1991 flash floods in the
city o Ormoc, Leyte underlines the ollowing impor-
tant lessons: (i) Construction o comprehensive inra-
structure can eectively mitigate flood disaster and
protect communities, but may not always be easible
due to the high cost o the investment; (ii) Aid rom
international organizations is critical, particularly or
technology transer; and (iii) Dense population set-
tings in high-risk areas contribute to high casualties.
A social development approach, with strong political
will and support rom local government, is required
to address this issue.
Figure 3 Case Study Structural Countermeasures
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Catalina Cabral, Department o Public Works and Highways.
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Structural Countermeasures
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Status o Chinas Flood Risk Managementand Case Studies
Yumei Deng, the Ofce o State Flood Control
and Drought Relie Headquarters, P.R. China
China experiences requent flood disasters due to its
topography, climate, and distribution o assets and
population. Since 1949, an average o 3,700 peo-
ple died, and 2.5 million homes are damaged due
to floods. China experiences various types o floods,
including rainstorm floods, flash floods, typhoons,
storm tide floods and urban floods. The latter is a par-
ticularly pressing problem due to the rapid economic
development o cities and the massive urbanization
that has taken place over the past three decades. The
amount o loss due to urban floods has been consis-
tently increasing over the past ew years.
The Government o China has adopted a strategic
approach to flood control and disaster mitigation. Pol-
icies were developed in 2003 to simultaneously tackle
floods and droughts and move away rom flood con-
trol towards flood management. Among the struc-
tural measures taken are amendment o plans or
flood control and disaster mitigation, improvement
o engineering systems, expansion o flood ways to
increase flow and storage, construction o dikes, res-
ervoirs and flood diversion area. These measures are
complemented by non-structural measures, such asscientifc management systems, social security sys-
tems, technological supporting systems, as well as
regulation, policy and legal systems. Flood control
institutional structures at the state, provincial, city,
and county level have also been established. These
institutional structures report to the State Flood Con-
trol and Drought Relie Headquarters, which consists
o 21 central government sector representatives.
China has a set o flood management-related laws
and regulations. It has also initiated the development
o a National Inormation System or Flood Control andDrought Relie. Hydrological monitoring, flood orecast-
ing and warning system, flood dispatch, 3-D digital sys-
tem or flood management, flood loss assessment and
flood hazard maps, are among the eatures being devel-
oped or the inormation system. Other eorts include
the development o urban flood control schemes, land-
use planning and adjustments, management o flood
impact assessment, and the selection o 35 regions in
China or pilot practice on flood hazard mapping and
flood risk management practices. An exercise aimed at
identiying drivers o urban floods, challenges and the
set o actions or integrating flood risk management
has also been carried out.
Impact Assessment Tools
Dr. Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility or
Disaster Reduction, Jakarta
The Indonesia Scenario Assessment or Emergencies
(InaSAFE) system was developed through the collab-
oration o the Indonesian Agency or Disaster Man-
agement (BNPB), the World Bank GFDRR Labs/EAP
DRM teams and the Australia Indonesia Facility or
Disaster Reduction (AIFDR) o AusAID. InaSAFE is agraphical inormation system that overlays data on
hazard levels with data on people and assets to pro-
duce a reliable estimate o disaster impact. InaSAFE
was developed to obtain the best available science
and data to support disaster management decision
making. The system can generate realistic disaster
scenarios or use in contingency planning and pro-
vide evidence-based quantitative impact assessments.
InaSAFE requires input in the orm o hazard data (e.g.
earthquake ground shaking and inundation maps)
which are commonly available through science agen-cies, and people/asset exposure data (e.g. population
density, important buildings and inrastructure, etc.)
that can be taken rom the bureau o statistics, local
data, or public sources. Challenges related to these
data requirements include the availability o hazard
and exposure data, and standardization o ormats,
metadata and distribution methods. These challenges
can, to a certain extent, be solved by using open-
source data and application such as OpenStreetMap.
The use o ree, open-source data and application will
increase sustainability in the long run.
Summary o Discussions
The discussion ocused on the kinds o inorma-
tion required or decision makers to strike a balance
between structural and non-structural measures.
An evaluation o past experiences is required
to strike a balance between structural and
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non-structural measures. In the case o the
2011 floods in Thailand, it was difcult to assess
whether the main cause was structural or non-
structural. According to Dr. Chitradon, the frst
step is to have good mapping system and developa strategy to integrate hazard and social data.
Dr. Cabral stated that the Government o the Phil-
ippines needs an asset management system to
account or and monitor the flood control struc-
tures that have been built on its many rivers. The
system will make it possible or the government
to understand the amount o investment and
the requency and cost o damages and consider
alternative designs or approaches, as necessary.
A database o waterways is also important or
identiying the institutions responsible or eachwaterway and the tributaries. This should be a col-
laborative eort between national and local gov-
ernments. The national government also needs a
good database that should be shared with local
governments. Some local governments already
have this database but it needs to be updated.
Dr. Nielsen added that when dealing with disas-
ter managers, access to basic risk inormation is
important or determining non-structural mea-
sures and the overall risk management system.
According to Mr. Bhanja, there are matters to be
considered when determining structural and non-
structural measures. Structural measures require
big investments, while non-structural measures
must involve the community. In any disaster sce-
nario, the communitys capacity and involvement
in the decision-making process is important.
Community-level initiatives, particularly local
coping mechanisms, should be integrated into
local and national policies. Good community-led
initiatives have been seen, or example, during
Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. Similarly, nationaland subnational initiatives must percolate to
community level.
Some o the causes o flood, such as climate vari-
ability and climate change, are dealt with in the
course o interventions and measures managed by
dierent agencies and jurisdictions. Mr. Gunawan
stressed the importance o linking the causes,
impacts, and intervention into a single platorm.
It is important to have a technology that allows
agencies who own relevant data to easily share it
with other agencies without the need to be too
proactive, as well as make data publicly available,without the public having to ask or it.
The American Red Cross (ARC), in collabora-
tion with the Indonesian Red Cross, is launch-
ing a flood mitigation program in the greater
Jakarta area. The program ocuses on non-struc-
tural measures and working with communities
along the Ciliwung river basin. One component
o the program is solid waste management. Mr.
Tom Alsea o ARC would like to hear any experi-
ences related to non-structural measures or solid
waste management.
According to Dr. Chitradon, prevention and mit-
igation is more conflict-prone than adaptation.
Adaptation is also better or promoting coordina-
tion. Dr. Chitradon shared the experience during
the floods in northeastern Thailand, and western
and eastern districts o Bangkok. In the western
district o Bangkok, the collaboration between
local administrations, international organiza-
tions, the army, and the private sector ocused
on measures that were geared less on prevention
and more on adaptation. Compared to the ullprevention eorts carried out in eastern districts
o Bangkok, previous eorts were more success-
ul in avoiding conflict.
Dr. Chitradon added that jurisdiction and law
enorcement were difcult to implement during
a natural disaster. It was thereore important to
build up and strengthen disaster management at
all levels o government, including at the local
level, ministry level, and central government
level.
Dr. Cabral gave an example o a law enorcement
problem in Metro Manila that deals with litter-
ing and indiscriminate dumping by people living
along the waterways, which contributes to flood-
ing. In one local government unit (LGU), there is
a law that bans the use o plastics. During the
flood, this LGU did not experience flooding. Ban-
ning plastics is not easy as plastic manuacturers
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will oppose the initiative. The cooperation o
local and national government, local NGOs and
the private sector is needed to help enorce solid
waste management, segregation o waste and
reduction o indiscriminate dumping. A database
on important buildings and actories impacted by
flooding will help acilitate such cooperation.
Dr. Nielsen, based on his discussions with the
Indonesian National Agency or Disaster Man-
agement (BNPB), added that the determination
o a threshold is necessary in order to identiy
which public buildings or institutions, such as
hospitals and schools, will be closed or impacted
under certain scenarios.
Mr. Santiago suggested that levels o risk percep-
tion, specifcally the risk acceptance or aversion
o the aected communities, as well as the public
in general, should be taken into account as this
aects the perception o success in implement-
ing structural or non-structural measures. Mr.
Santiago proposed the possible launch o a pub-
lic inormation and awareness raising campaign
ocusing on the aected communities, particu-
larly the poor and vulnerable, in order to inorm
and change their risk perception.
Panel Session 2: The Components oIntegrated Flood Risk Management
Moderator: Victor Rembeth
Speakers:
Dr. Ho Long Phi, Steering Center o Flood Control
Program Director, Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam
Dr. Cheong Tae Sung, National Disaster
Management Institute (NDMI), Ministry o
Public Administration and Security (MoPAS),Rep. o Korea
Dudi Gardesi, Department o Public Works, DKI
Jakarta
Takaya Tanaka, Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Jenny Enrika and Agus Nuryadi, Pembangunan
Jaya Group.
Key points
A combination o structural and non-structuralmeasures is required to ensure the highest level
o protection against flood risk.
Measures need to be flexible and robust in order
to adapt to uncertainties.
Uncertainties, presented in the orm o multiple
scenarios and probability percentages, should be
clearly communicated to disaster managers to
ensure inormed decision making.
Multi-stakeholder coordination will be moreeective when guided by specifc shared goals
and objectives, and supported through standard-
ized data and systems, a clear division o roles
and responsibility and good leadership.
Flood risk management should be mainstreamed
into sustainable development policies and prac-
tices.
The private sector and developers should be
included in the dialogue on flood risk management.
Multi-level and multi-sector coordination amonggovernment agencies promotes an integrated
approach to flood risk management. To promote
coordination, a basin-oriented or community-ori-
ented approach can be used.
Policy makers play an important role in deter-
mining flood risk management investment.
Practitioners should provide policy makers with
decision-support tools and supply sufcient
incentive to promote commitment on longer-
term flood prevention, mitigation, and prepared-
ness measures.
Technological innovations, such as those devel-
oped in the Republic o Korea and Japan, can
greatly enhance flood prevention and mitigation
eorts.
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Evaluating Alternative Flood RiskManagement Options
Dr. Ho Long Phi, Steering Center o Flood
Control Program Director, Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh City lies in a lowland area and aces
increasing risk rom upstream floods, increasing rain-
all, increasing tidal eect, sea- and water-level rise,
and land subsidence. Urbanization urther aggra-
vates inappropriate land use, which in turn heightens
flood risk. The risk uncertainties make it difcult to
determine appropriate structural measures.
The city has an integrated urban flood management
strategy designed to deal with uncertainties. The
strategy has three components: protection, adapta-
tion, and resilience. The main component is protec-
tion, which ocuses on technical, structural measures,
such as construction o dikes, sewers, and water
retention inrastructure, in order to ensure peoples
saety at 80-95 percent protection levels. The protec-
tion level o these structures decreases with time due
to the uncertainty o uture risks. Adaptation aims to
maintain the current protection level over time, while
resilience, which addresses risk rather than hazard,
aims to increase the protection level to 100 percent
and reduce the damage under extremity. Adaptationand resilience are mostly non-structural measures,
implemented through a multi-stakeholder approach.
The three components o this strategy have to be
supplemented with a decision-support system.
The integrated flood management strategy does
not entirely rely on a predict and act approach,
which is conventionally used or the design o struc-
tural protection measure. Greater attention is given
to adaptation and resilience measures as they are
more appropriate or dealing with uncertainties and
extremities o uture risks. When designing struc-
tural measures, it is important not to encourage
over-confdence as this reduces adaptability and
preparedness. The potential risks, which are oten
perceived as small in terms o probability, can be
very dangerous i not considered in the design o
structural measures.
Figure 4 Ho Chi Minh City Strategy Analysis
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Ho Long Phi.
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An iterative decision-making (IDM) process is used
to decide on the selection o the protection strategy,
which can be a combination o measures. The process
involves identifcation o candidate protection strate-
gies (see Figure 4), development o multiple scenarios
or each strategy to analyze vulnerability and calcu-
late potential damages, and analysis o candidate
protection strategies based on protection, adaptation
and resilience criteria as well as social and economic
risk analysis. Social and economic risk analysis is car-
ried out through an overlay o vulnerability maps,
hazard maps and exposure maps to identiy the vul-
nerability and indirect cost index. The fnal strategy is
then selected based on robustness rather than opti-
mality, criterion or probability.
In conclusion: (i) the eventual purpose o flood man-
agement is to reduce risk not hazard; (ii) integrated
strategy should consider uncertainty and extremity;
(iii) economic-avored and social-avored strategies
should be justifed by a multi-stakeholder process;
and (iv) to deal with complexity, choice should come
beore prediction.
Flood Risk Management Policies andSystems or CCA and DRR
Tae Sung Cheong Ph.D., Climate Change
Research, National Disaster ManagementInstitute (NDMI), Ministry o Public
Administration and Security (MoPAS), Republic
o Korea
The Republic o Korea has recently developed its
2050 climate change projection which indicates a
signifcant potential increase in disaster risk and vul-
nerability due to rising temperatures, increasing pre-
cipitation, seasonal changes and sea-level rise. There
will be higher probability or extreme weather events,
such as heat waves and downpours, which may
cause droughts and floods, as well as increase therisk o more requent, large-scale natural disasters.
Over the years, there have been ewer atalities ol-
lowing natural disasters in the Republic o Korea, but
higher amounts o fnancial losses due to changes in
the social structure. Most damage has been caused
by floods and landslides in river basins and urban
areas ollowing torrential rain, drought caused by
water shortage due to a decreasing number o rainy
days and increasing water needs, coastal floods due
to sea-level rise and erosion o sandy beaches.
In 2011, the Prime Ministers ofce was tasked with
setting up a task orce consisting o relevant minis-tries, local governments, and experts to address the
issue o climate change and improve existing institu-
tions such as resetting disaster prevention standards.
A number o policies to be developed will include a
new guideline or disaster risk reduction (DRR) and
climate change adaptation (CCA), a new design code
or public acility and social inrastructures, enhance-
ment o guidelines on sewer systems, and strength-
ening erosion control to reduce debris. The Republic
o Korea is also developing its flood risk manage-
ment system, such as an Automated Rainall Warn-ing System (ARWS) and a warning and dissemination
system, which will allow wire/wireless warning dis-
semination by the Disaster Inormation Management
Center. A flash flood orecasting system, landslide
orecasting and monitoring system and a typhoon
disaster management system are also being devel-
oped. These policies and systems will identiy local-
ized risk and estimate GIS-based damage inormation
or the purpose o decision making on DRR and CCA.
Mr. Jha commented that laws should ensure the
availability o permeable spaces. In the case o cit-ies in India, green spaces are oten built on top o
concrete. It is thereore important to ocus on per-
meable ground, not just greening. Rain water har-
vesting is seen as a good solution or ground water
discharge. In the city o Delhi, or instance, all
houses are required to have rain water harvesting,
yet enorcement o this regulation is still weak. In
other Indian cities, e.g. Chennai, this eort has been
more successul. In Toronto, 60 percent o commer-
cial building areas are required to be green, which is
something that the Republic o Korea is also trying to
enorce. This eort is easier to implement in new cit-ies, while in older cities such as Seoul, many houses
and actories were built in high-risk areas during the
countrys rapid development in the 1960s. Accord-
ing to Mr. Cheong, the government is trying to con-
vert existing areas into green areas, improve sewer
systems, and develop underground storage acilities
similar to those built in Japan.
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Flood management in Jakarta: Case romJakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation Program(JUFMP)
Dudi Gardesi, Ministry o Public Works, DKI Jakarta
Jakarta, the capital city o Indonesia, is a low-lying
delta area traversed by 13 rivers. Forty percent o
Jakarta is aected by high tide. The city generally
experiences medium-to-heavy intensity rainall in the
rainy season. With massive urban development tak-
ing place, Jakarta aces signifcant flood risk. Land
subsidence, clogged river and sewerage, slum orma-
tion in high risk areas, and sea-level rise are just a ew
o the actors that are contributing to the flood risk.
Jakarta has initiated a number o structural and non-
structural flood control measures. The measures
include the creation o new water catchment areas,
sea walls (see Figure 5) and a polder system; some
o these measures are collaborations between the
Ministry and the provincial government through the
support o development partners. An example is the
construction o eight sea walls built by the provin-
cial government on a piece o land that was acquired
by the provincial government. The compensation or
land varies depending on land ownership. When the
land is owned by the State, compensation is given
only or the relocation o inhabitants, whereas when
the land is privately-owned, compensation is based
on the price o the land and the price it would cost to
build on the land.
Figure 5 Jakarta Sea Wall Rehabilitation Plan
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dudi Gardesi.
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Comprehensive Flood Management in anUrban River A Successul Experience inJapan
Takaya Tanaka, Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA)
The Tsurumi river basin is aected by the East Asian mon-
soon and has experienced rapid urbanization between
the 1960s and the 1980s. Peak run-o discharge has
more than doubled within that same period, resulting
in requent floods a similar challenge to the one aced
in the Ciliwung river basin in Jakarta. Urbanization and
settlement in Tsurumi is predicted to increase by 14 per-
cent between 2008 and 2030, along with a 50 percent
increase o run-o discharge.
One contributing actor to urban flooding is the lack o
space or water, particularly in densely populated areas.
A comprehensive flood management system which
essentially aims to increase space or water has been
put in place in the Tsurumi river basin (see Figure 6).
The system consists o three types o measures covering
the river basin, the river itsel and drainage systems. The
three measures incorporate a range o structural mea-
sures, such as landfll control, preservation o green area,
river improvement, permeable pavement, multipurpose
retarding basin, reservoir, park storage, undergroundreservoir, and construction o gates and pumps.
As part o the river basin measures, the government
works with the private sector to build flood control res-
ervoirs. All private developers are required by national
law to construct a 500-cubic meter pond per hectare
o land. The government also uses new technology
or ground material that allows water storage under-
ground. The river measure includes the construction o
the 84-hectare Tsurumi multi-purpose retarding basin
that accommodates 3.9 million cubic meter o water.
The drainage measure includes the construction opumping stations and drainage rainwater storage pipes.
As a result o this comprehensive set o flood preven-
tion measures, the number o houses inundated during
floods has consistently decreased over the years, rom
more than 7,500 in 1966 to close to none in 2004.
Figure 6 Japan Comprehensive Flood Management Reserve Water in the City
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Takaya Tanaka.
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Flood Risk Management at PT.Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk.
Jenny Enrika, Pembangunan Jaya Group
Agus Nuryadi, Pembangunan Jaya Group
PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk, is a private com-
pany that operates a 552-hectare seaside property and
recreation/resort area in Ancol, north Jakarta. PT Pem-
bangunan Jaya Ancol adopts a strategic management
ramework that places no burden on the citys systems.
It discharges no water into the city drainage system
and produces its own drinking water rom sea water
through a reverse osmosis system and without extract-
ing any water rom the land. It constructed its own
sea walls, dikes, canals, polders and a pumping system
using hydro meteorological data rom the Indonesian
Meteorology and Geophysics Body (BMG).
PT Pembangunan Jaya collaborates with the Jakarta
city government in the maintenance o water gates
and pumps systems in the Ancol area to support the
citys drainage. It also allocates a portion o its land
or the citys waste disposal. Seventy percent o its
land is designated as a green area, with paving blocks
used throughout to increase water absorption.
Summary o Discussions
The discussion ocused on the challenges in integrat-ing flood risk management.
Resettlement o populations at risk is a challenge.
Dr. Santiago explained that in Metro Manila, 75,000
amilies, who are either aected by floods or are
implicated in causing them, are to be relocated. A
und o 15 million pesos has been already allocated
or this purpose. The options or resettlement are on-
site resettlement, in-city resettlement or resettlement
along the limits or outside o Metro Manila. Each
option has its own risks and benefts. A rule now
requires the preparation o hazard maps or resettle-ment to areas outside o Metro Manila, as spaces out-
side o Metro Manila may not be necessarily better
or resettlement purposes, although costs are lower.
Another option would be constructing medium-rise
buildings or resettlement within Metro Manila. This
option is more costly and the area is still exposed to
existing hazards. Local governments in Metro Manila
are coming up with programs to generate unds at the
city level to relocate populations to the city boundary
areas, or in areas in adjoining provinces. There are
still issues with communications, as in some areas,
communities are reluctant to relocate. Recent talks
with inormal sector groups have shown that com-
munities are taking a more positive stance and that
attitudes on relocation-related issues have improved.
The challenge is to cover the relatively high cost o
resettlement in Metro Manila. Another challenge is
to fnd sufcient space to devote to these initiatives.
An AusAID-supported project is currently addressing
this issue. The project employs a multi-tier approach
to developing relocation units, which are not uni-
orm. Several models are available, depending on the
willingness o those being relocated to pay and the
size o their respective amilies. The national housing
agency and several city governments have expressedan interest in replicating this initiative.
According to Mr. Tanaka, another challenge is the
wall between agencies, e.g. between sectoral agen-
cies and the planning agency, which exists in Japan as
well as Indonesia. Mr. Cheong agreed that this issue
needed to be resolved. A consensus has to be reached
between the national government, local governments,
and the private sector. Focusing on basin-oriented and
community-oriented measures may help to promote
such a consensus. Hardware/structural measures are
easier to agree on as they rely mainly on budget, sothe ocus can be placed on consolidating sotware/
non-structural measures, such as capacity-building,
early warning and decision-making systems. Inorma-
tion and knowledge sharing should take place within a
common DRM objective. Mr. Tanaka agreed that there
should a common goal between the various agencies;
this common goal should be a concrete numerical goal
and not merely a conceptual goal.
Mr. Jha added that developers are oten neglected in
the dialogue between stakeholders, and this should
be corrected as they are a key partner in this process.A high degree o inormality exists in this sector. In
Istanbul, or instance, 50 percent o housing is inor-
mal. An inormal developer community exists, so it is
important to get them involved in flood risk manage-
ment. Mr. Jha also included political aspects as part
o the uncertainty in flood risk management. Policy
makers are mostly concerned with current pressing
issues, and not with uture potential impacts. This
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is particularly true in developing countries, such as
Indonesia, India, and Brazil, where policy makers ace
a trade-o between providing or current needs,
such as sanitation and drinking water and preparing
or uture risk that may or may not happen. Practi-
tioners should thereore provide policy makers with
tools to link these trade-os, but in the fnal account,
decisions are taken on political grounds and not on
technical grounds.
Dr. Nielsen added that when developing models and
maps, there needs to be clear understanding that
they represent a probability, and not a certainty. Dr.
Nielsen is considering assigning a rating to the input
data, or instance by giving stars. The more stars,
the higher the certainty and the level o trust put on
the data or decision making purposes. The level o
uncertainty has to be clearly communicated beore
any decision is made.
Ms. Enrika said that PT. Pembangunan Jayas strategy
has had little impact on Jakartas flood risk manage-
ment as a whole. Jakartas problem is that it is lacks
a green area. She proposed that countries jointly
decide on a common policy, or example on a green
area requirement or all cities.
Session III: The International
Development Partner View Pannel Session
Speakers:
Tae Sung Cheong Ph.D., Climate Change
Research, National Disaster Management
Institute (NDMI), Ministry o Public
Administration and Security (MoPAS), Rep. o
Korea
Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.
Key Points
Decisions must be made based on good quality
inormation. It is thereore useul to have GIS-
based decision-support systems based on mul-
tiple scenarios.
Flood management strategy should be contextual
and should consider the local natural and social
context and continually adapt to the changing
local context through the process o continuous
learning (the Kaizen principle).
Accurate calculation o risk and accurate com-
munication o risk to all stakeholders is critical or
prevention, mitigation, and preparedness.
A sae-side early warning, redundant designs,
multi-player and multi-disciplinary approach are
important to address uncertainty.
A shit rom a deterministic approach towards a
probabilistic approach is crucial to ensure robustness.
Satellite data and technology is now available to
support more accurate prediction o hazard and
risk analysis.
Korean Technology on Flood ForecastingModel and Faster Decision-making Process
Tae Sung Cheong Ph.D., Climate Change
Research, National Disaster Management
Institute (NDMI), Ministry o Public
Administration and Security (MoPAS), Republic
o Korea
The decision-support system or DRM in the Republic
o Korea consists o three components: (i) an inor-
mation-based DRM system; (ii) a model-based DRM
system; and (iii) a decision-support system.
For the collection and sharing o inormation or the
inormation-based DRM system, a standard ormat
needs to be introduced, such as GIS-based inor-
mation. Data is collected rom related agencies and
merged to perorm analysis or decision making.
The modeling-based DRM system is basically a numeri-
cal model. The modeling based system can be easily
calibrated according to the input data and validated in
dierent locations. In the case o the Bo Chung Chun
basin, the rainall-runo modeling is used to compare
discharge at dierent bridges in the basin area.
The decision-support system produces animations o
simulation results, which can provide an automatic
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estimation o damage, both in terms o casualties
and damage to properties (see Figure 7). The system
can be used or early warning, emergency response,
and early recovery.
There are two dierent scales or mapping in the
Republic o Korea: a national decision-support sys-
tem or general use, and more detailed systems at the
subnational level. Both maps are initially established
by the national government. Technology is trans-
erred to the local government level through training,
education, and inormation sharing.
Figure 7 Decision-Support System in the Republic o Korea
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Tae Sung Cheong.
Lessons Learned rom GEJE 2011
Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan InternationalCooperation Agency (JICA)
The lessons learned rom disaster experiences need
to be identifed in order to contribute to the fve
actions o the Hyogo Framework o Action. JICA has
launched a study on the eective countermeasures
against mega-disasters to obtain lessons rom vari-
ous catastrophic events, particularly the Great East
Japan Earthquake (GEJE) o 2011, and to extract new
and additional perspectives or eective DRM that is
equally applicable to the international community.
Box 2 provides a list o these lessons.
A number o lessons learned in the GEJE 2011 were
underlined. Points b2 and h1 relate to the need to
apply progressive adaptation against changing condi-
tions (the Kaizen principle). Changes related to ele-
ments such as local natural and social conditions,
as well as population, generation, liestyles, risk
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a1: Probabilistic risk analysis with scientifcknowledge
b1: Continuous revision and upgrading o disaster
management standard
b2: Risk analysis under changing local natural and
social condition
c1: Comprehensive geological, archaeological,
and historical research
c2: Sae-side early warning o the largest possible
hazard
c3: Realistic explanation o warning and disaster
inormation
c4: Redundant inormation delivery incooperation with various practitioners
d1: Multiple structural measures supported by
subunctional structures
d2: Redundant combination o structural and
non-structural measures to minimize hazard
d3: Risk communication to raise awareness o
disaster management measures, limitations,
and probable risks
e1: Construction o evacuation sites and escape
routes integrated with city planning
e2: Multi-combination o evacuation routes andacilities
e3: Land use planning with the lowest risks as
residential areas incorporated with building
regulations
e4: Evacuation system developed with disaster
preparedness including management o
buildings and acilities
1: Sel Rescue First principle
2: Disaster education, including capacity
development o individuals
g1: Hazard map or understanding hazard
instance and or evacuation drills, but not as
deterministic hazard assumptions
g2: Continuous and regular risk communication
to raise awareness o the possibility o
hazards exceeding the hazard maps
h1: Adaptation to changing communitys
conditions, such as population, generation,
liestyles, risk awareness, and capacity o sel-
support activities
h2: Risk communication between aging
population and new generation
h3: Risk communication between mature
residents and newcomers
i1: Local disaster management plans continually
revised on the basis o multiple damage
scenarios
i2: Community disaster management capabilities
enhancement through probabilistic hazard
identifcation, disaster education, evacuation
drills, and construction o evacuation sites,
buildings and evacuation routes
j1: Joint eorts o multiple local governments
j2: Central level agency to carry out
reconstruction projects
k1: Handing down lessons learned on disaster
experiences and knowledge over generations
k2: Inducement o appropriate land use and
restrictions, regulations on building structures
in combination with city development plans
BOX 2 Lessons rom GEJE 2011
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
awareness and capacity or sel-support, must be con-
sidered in the assessment o risk and identifcation o
counter measures. Points c2, c3, d3, g1, g2 relate to
risk literacy. Sae-side early warning systems to warn
o the largest possible hazard was recommended, as
well as updated and more accurate communication o
risk and estimation o risk. For example, there should
be an appropriate level o understanding among all
those aected o what a hazard map really means.
Points c4, d1, d2, e1, e2, i2 highlight the need to
have redundant prevention/mitigation measures and
disaster management operations. Redundancy does
not mean costly overlapping measures. Based on the
study, redundant designs, multi-player, and a multi-
disciplinary approach works eectively in the context
o uncertain and extreme events. JICA uses the three
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principles o Kaizen, risk literacy and redundancy in
its approach towards securing fnance and main-
streaming disaster risk management.
A shit is needed rom a deterministic to a prob-
ability approach (see Figure 8). The deterministic
approach uses a target protection level or a planned
and designed hazard to determine protection and
mitigation measures. This can be dangerous in the
ace o uncertainty. The probability approach uses
multiple scenarios based on probabilistic hazard pro-
jection to determine the hazard level. Through the
probability approach, damages and losses based on
multiple scenarios can be minimized through a seam-
less combination o structural and non-structural
measures and redundant measures.
Figure 8 A Comparison o the Deterministic Approach and the Probabilistic Approach
Source: PowerPoint presentation, Dr. Hitoshi Baba, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
Ground Displacement Monitoring UsingRadar Satellite Images
Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.
Altamira Inormation is an earth observation company
that provides ground deormation measurements
with millimeter precision and mapping solutions
using satellite images. Altamira uses Intereromet-
ric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methodology
to measure vertical changes in land surace. Satellite
data are collected at intervals and analyzed to pro-
duce graphical inormation that can be used or a
range o purposes within various sectors, including
inrastructures, mining, oil, and gas. The methodol-
ogy oers high-quality measurement, large coverage,
retrospective analysis, and up-to-date inormation in
a cost efcient way.
This technology can provide site inormation and
eatures, as well as historical inormation on ground
deormation and subsidence, which is a key input or
identiying and predicting disaster risk and vulner-
ability. It has been used, or example, or analyzing
impact o earthquake on land subsidence in Yogya-
karta, the impact o urban development in Ho Chi
Minh City (see Figure 9), the impact o groundwater
extraction in Semarang, coastal zone vulnerability inAlexandria, Egypt, and or measuring settlement o
the southern dike port o Barcelona.
To measure difcult areas, such as buildings or
grounds covered with dense vegetation or snow, new
points o reerence and corner reflectors will need to
be added to the calculation.
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Summary o Discussions
According to Mr. Santiago, the use o a probabi-
listic approach may pose additional challenge to
communicating risk and eliciting response rom
those aected, when compared to the determin-
istic approach. Dr. Baba explained that risks are
sometimes misunderstood and that, at times,
authorities do not properly explain the possibil-
ity o higher risk or extreme events that exceed
our assumptions or previous calculation o risk
depending on a single scenario. This is why mul-
tiple scenarios are necessary. For instance, when
producing a hazard map, the possibility o dier-
ent scenarios must be communicated, as well as
the act that these maps do not yet capture the
maximum probable risk.
Dr. Nielsen stated that disaster managers do not
need to know the maximum possible risk but
maximum credible risk. He inquired about best
ways to identiy plausible maximum risk levels.
Dr. Baba responded that the design o structural
measures should be based on maximum prob-
ability, and should take into account the esti-
mation on when the bigger hazard may occur.
This is the practice o most scenario strategy and
probabilistic approach o risk management.
When asked about the cost o the ground deor-
mation measurement technology, Mr. Douet
explained that the cost will depend on the degree
o complexity and the kind o the study to be
undertaken. Dr. Nielsen added that to improve
sustainability, donors should ensure that pur-
chased datasets or technology should be made
publicly available so that benefciary countries are
not burdened with subsequent licensing costs.
Dr. Baba recommended that countries should
enter into collaboration with research institutes
in Asia or in their respective countries to obtain
access to basic datasets at minimal cost.
As a result o climate change, it is no longer pos-
sible to use past trends to predict the uture, as
in the case o 50-year or 100-year predictions.
These kinds o prediction are not good or risk
communication, as it does not help people to
ully understand probability and risks. Mr. Jha
underlined the importance o shiting towards
a probabilistic approach and move away rom a
deterministic approach in which structural mea-
sures are designed to respond to a specifc haz-
ard level, which may or may not be correct.
Figure 9 Case study: Ho Chi Minh City - Urban Risk Management
Source: Yannick Douet, Altamira Inormation.
Binh Tanh District. Deormations up to 20mm/year
triggered by rapid urban development
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Special Session: Flood PreparednessMapping Presentation
PhotosbyRinsanTobing
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Remarks by Franz R. Drees-Gross, SectorManager, World Bank, Jakarta
Practitioners o urban flood risk management
and urban resilience work at the intersection
o two megatrends in East Asia: a historically
unprecedented urbanization trend and challeng-
ing natural resource management issues. Urban-
ization has meant that larger numbers o people
are placed in harms way, and more assets are
at risk. This, combined with the natural phe-
nomena, such as the sinking o Jakarta and sev-
eral other cities in Asia, adds to the recurrence
o flooding events. This is a huge challenge or
urban resilience and flood risk management.
There were good discussions on using risk inor-
mation data and sotware and placing them in
the public domain or decision makers and plan-
ners, as well as extending the discussion beyond
flood risk management into the realm o urban
design and planning and inrastructure invest-
ments.
This workshop is not a one-o event. Through the
support o the Government o Korea and the gov-
ernment o DKI Jakarta, a community o practi-tioners rom dierent countries can be ormed to
share knowledge and experience. By continuing
this inormation sharing ater the workshop, the
flood risk management agenda can gain visibility
and buy-in rom political decision makers, not just
here in Jakarta but also in other Asian cities.
Remarks by Bang Ki-Sung, DeputyAdministrator, National EmergencyManagement Agency (NEMA), Republic.
O Korea
The Republic o Korea is acing changing disaster
risks due to climate change. Located in the East
Asia Pacifc region, 70 percent o the Republic o
Koreas surace is mountainous terrain. In sum-
mer, the country is oten hit by typhoons coming
rom the Pacifc region, causing signifcant dam-
ages due to winds and concentrated rainalls.
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As part o disaster risk reduction and prevention,
NEMA implemented hardware measures and sot-
ware measures. The hardware measures include,
the disaster prone area enhancement project, the
steep slope plane national project to reduce land-
slide and risk or flood disaster, and small stream
management projects. Relevant policies and disas-
ter risk management systems have been presented
by Dr. Tae Sung Cheong. Sotware measures
include the development o disaster risk manage-
ment regulations on: (i) an assessment o disas-
ter risk or every development plan in the Republic
o Korea; (ii) a comprehensive integrated flo