Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communications by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention

30 September - 1 October 2004, Dublin, Ireland

Impact of national circumstances on policy-making process

&

Key drivers underlying emission trends in Belgium

Etienne HannonFederal DG Environment Belgium

Belgian federal structure

equal from the legal point of view

but

powers and responsibilities for

different fields

Flemishregion Flemish

community

Brussels-Capital region

Walloonregion

Frenchcommunity

Germancommunity

1 Federal State

3 Communities

3 Regions

Overview of competences

Transport National airport & Railways

Taxes on vehicles and fuels

Technical standards for vehicles

Highways , waterways, seaports, regional airports

Public transport

School transport

Energy Major infrastructure & planning in electricity and gas sectors

Tariffs & taxes

Nuclear

Off-shore wind energy

Local distribution and transport of gas & electricity

RUE & energy efficiency

RES+ heat networks, energy recovery, …

Federal State Regions

Environment Coordination of the international environmental policy

Regulating marketing of products (standards, labels,…) + waste transit, marine environment, radioactive waste

Environmental policy (air, water, soil, forest)

Waste management + dangerous installations, nature and hunting conservation,…

The challenge of climate policy

Climate policy = complex issue: energy, transport, fiscality, agriculture, waste, …

Belgian federal structure adds extra dimension to complexity:

- Federal and regional competencies in most cc-related policy domains

- Federal and regional levels are sovereign regarding their competences

=> Need for extensive coordination

Cooperation agreement for climate policy

Parties : Federal State, Flemish region, Walloon region, Brussels-Capital region

Main objective : reduce GHG emissions, as determined by KP and decision 2002/358/EC (EU burden sharing) (-7.5%)

Specific objectives :

- implementation and follow-up of the National Climate Plan

- ensure compliance with reporting obligations (UNFCCC, KP & Mechanism for monitoring EC GHG emissions (decision 280/2004/EC)

Executive body : National Climate Commission

Provisions related to reporting :- to make sure that methodologies, procedures, data analysis,

projections used by the Parties to the agreement are compatible and, if possible, harmonised

- Regions are committed to deliver yearly to the NCC a report containing the relevant information allowing the federal government to report data in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, and decision 280/2004/EC

Cooperation agreement for climate policy

National Burden Sharing agreement

1. Regions are assigned a target

2. Regions are each responsable for closing the difference between emissions and Assigned Amount on their territory, through:

Fl.

Wa.

Br.

reducing their emissions

Belgian Assigned Amount under K.P.

using flexibility mechanisms

National Burden Sharing agreement

Regional Assigned Amounts under the burden sharing

• Walloon Region: 1990 emissions minus 7,5 %

• Flemish Region: 1990 emissions minus 5,2 %

• Brussels Capital Region: 1990 emissions plus 3,475 %

Total exceeds Belgian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol

Federal Government will cover the difference through use of the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms

2,46 Mton CO2-eq/yr.in 2008-2012

Financed by 25 M€/yr. Kyoto Fund (operational since 2003)

Greenhouse gas emission in Belgium (2002)

Energy Ind.17,9%

Manuf. Ind. & Constr.23,0%

Transport17,3%

Other (energy)20,3%

Waste 2,0%

Agriculture 8,2%

Industrial Processes

10,5%

Other0,7%

Sectoral contributions:

Total GHG emissions = 150.3 Mt CO2 eq

CO2 emissions = 84.2% of total emissions

Belgian emission trends (1990-2002)

-5,7%

1,9% 0,9% 2,9%0,8%

-10,6%

-1,8%

-18,4%

-8,5%

-2,5%

-20,0%

-10,1%

-2,7%

8,4%

27,2%

-27,5%

-8,7%

21,8%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Ene

rgy

Ind.

Man

uf. I

nd. &

Con

str.

Tran

spor

tO

ther

(ene

rgy)

Indu

stria

l Pro

cess

esS

olv.

& O

ther

Pro

d. U

se

Agr

icul

ture

Was

te

Tota

l

BE EU15

In-depth review of the 3rd Nat. Com.

“The review team [..] noted the following trends: a substantial increase in the emissions from transport, an increase in the “other” emissions [..]”

“The emission trends are presented well in the NC3 but not all factors leading to these trends are clearly explained.”

[..] no data to support explanations [that freight transport by road grew faster than GDP] were available at the time of the review; [..]. The review team encouraged Belgian experts to continue studies in this area”

“The review team identified some areas for further improvement: identification of key drivers for emissions growth”

“The Belgian NC3 is, in general, in compliance with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines”

How to improve the reporting of information on key drivers ?

Solution = development of indicators

Criteria for the selection of indicators:

- clear definition & common understanding

- be policy relevant

- soundly founded

- transparent (well documented and of known quality)

- comparable

- easily available (cf. data & resource demand)

Indicators : developments within the EU

European Energy Agency : « core set of indicators »

- 37 indicators on 11 topics, among which energy (5) & CC (4)

- Basis for EEA reports (« Environment signals »)

Eurostat : « structural indicators » on environment

- 15 indicators, based on latest national statistics, available on the web

Mechanism for monitoring EC GHG emissions (decision 280/2004/EC)

- 15 (+13) indicators to be reported annually (CO2 intensities)

ODYSSEE-SAVE European project on energy efficiency indicators

- Objective: to review national achievements in energy efficiency and CO2 emissions at a sectoral level

- Network of 15 national Agencies

- Products : common database on energy efficiency indicators, workshops, annual reports

Energy intensity of GDP

before climate correctionafter climate correction

Source : ECONOTEC (The ODYSSEE Project Results for Belgium)

toe / M EUR 95 (1990 = 100)

Final energy intensity by sector *

Source : ECONOTEC (The ODYSSEE Project Results for Belgium)

industrytransporttertiaryresidential

* Final energy use (toe) / activity variable (M EUR 95)

(1990 = 100)

value added (industry, tertiary)private consumption (households)GDP (transport)

Energy intensity : a good proxy for energy efficiency ?

Not appropriate to identify and assess the contributions of the main factors responsible for the changes in energy consumption

Energy (CO2) intensity :

- consumption (CO2 emissions) / GDP (or value added)

- « economic approach »

- easily available but encompass other effects than energy efficiency (structure)

Contributions to changes in energy intensities

Evolution of the energy intensity can be expressed as the sum of two different contributions:

structural effect: effect of a change in the structure of the consumption sector

e.g. shift of industrial output from energy intensive industries to less energy intensive industries

unit consumption effect: change in consumption per unit of activity (proxy for the energy efficiency)

Unit consumption effect = EIt - EI0 - SEt

Structural effect =

Key drivers of the energy consumption in road transport (passenger)

Source : NIS, ODYSSEE (calculations by ECONOTEC)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

activity effect

structural effect

energy efficiency

consumption

(% of the consumption in 1990)

Key drivers of the energy consumption in road transport (freight)*

* Wallonia

Source : NIS, ODYSSEE (calculations by ECONOTEC)

(% of the consumption in 1990)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

activity effect

structural effect

energy efficiency

consumption

Conclusions

Institutional complexity is not an obstacle to the implementation of climate policies or the compliance with reporting obligations but need for extensive cooperation and institutional arrangements

Analysis of key drivers of emission trends allows for identifying problems, highlighting good practices and tuning PAMs

Sets of widely used indicators are currently available, which allow for a thorough analysis of key drivers

Thank you !