Workshop on Planning Coordinated Research on Ecosystems, Climate, and

Policy in the Northeast

SSB for 4 GB Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002

0

2 0 , 0 0 0

4 0 , 0 0 0

6 0 , 0 0 0

8 0 , 0 0 0

1 0 0 , 0 0 0

1 2 0 , 0 0 0

1 4 0 , 0 0 0

1 6 0 , 0 0 0

1 8 0 , 0 0 0

2 0 0 , 0 0 0

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

2002 (projected)

Y e a r

SSB (mt)

G B W i n t e r F l ( T o t a l B )

G B Y e l l o w t a i l

G B H a d d o c k

G B C o d

*2002 projections are from Groundfish PDT work for Amendment 13.

*2002 total B estimate for GB winter flounder from short-term projections in NMFS GARM Report (2002).

Ho sted by t he C o o per a t ive Institut e

f or C li ma t e a nd O c e a n Re s e a r c h

o f t h e W o o d s H o l e O c e a n o g r a ph ic

In s titu t io n &

T h e Nor t h e a s t F is h er ie s S c ience

C e nte r o f t h e N a ti o n a l M a r in e Fis h eri e s

Se r vi ce

Re port on a

Work sho p on Planning C oor dinated Res earch

On E co syste ms, Cli mate, and Po li c y in t he Nor t heast

DRAFT February 15, 2005

January 11 -13, 2005 J. Eric J onsso n Cente r of the Nat ional Academy of Sciences

Woods Hole , Massachus etts

First in a series of workshops hosted by ‘wet’ cooperative institutes on regional marine ecosystems.

Workshop: Jan 11-13, 2005Draft Report: Feb 15, 2005Final Report: March 1, 2005

http://www.whoi.edu/science/cicor/

Goal: determine the coordinated research needed to support better understanding of

marine ecosystems in the Northeast and of the impacts of climate variability and the human

population on these ecosystems.

Context and background: WHOI and NEFSC work in GLOBEC Georges Bank Program; WHOI climate, ecosystems, and policy strengths; NEFSC sampling

and research; growing attention to integrated observing capabilities; desire for next generation of

studies; the overlap of climate and ecosystems variabilities

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Water Temperature

-1.5

0.0

1.5

NAO

NAO

WHDt

SSB for 4 GB Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002

0

2 0 , 0 0 0

4 0 , 0 0 0

6 0 , 0 0 0

8 0 , 0 0 0

1 0 0 , 0 0 0

1 2 0 , 0 0 0

1 4 0 , 0 0 0

1 6 0 , 0 0 0

1 8 0 , 0 0 0

2 0 0 , 0 0 0

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

2002 (projected)

Y e a r

SSB (mt)

G B W i n t e r F l ( T o t a l B )

G B Y e l l o w t a i l

G B H a d d o c k

G B C o d

*2002 pr oject ions ar e f r om G r oundf ish PDT wor k f or Am endm ent 13.

*2002 t ot al B est im at e f or G B wint er f lounder f r om shor t - t er m pr oject ions in NM FS G ARM Repor t ( 2002) .

Annual average SST in Woods Hole and NAO Index

Georges Bank groundfish stocks 1985-2002

Attendees:

WHOI Maine Sea Grant Shoals Marine Lab

Mass Fisherman’s Partnership U Mass, Boston

NEFSC USGS MBL

Buzzards Bay Project Nat’l Estuary Program NOAA OST

Stellwagen Bank Nat’l Marine Sanctuary NOAA OAR

New England Fisheries Management Council BUMP

Mass. Division of Marine Fisheries Battelle

EPA Dartmouth DFO, Canada

Maine Dept Marine Resources GSO, URI

Maine Sea Grant U Mass, Lowell UNH

U Mass, Dartmouth BIO, Canada U Maine

Memorial U, St John’s NF NOAA COP

NOAA NMFS

Agenda• Mike Sinclair, BIO - Ecosystems based management - what does it mean?

Scientist/Manager Pairs

• WG 1 - Harmful Algal Blooms

• WG2 - Nutrients and Contaminants

• WG3 - Fisheries

• WG4 - Biodiversity Conservation

Synthesis Groups

• Research

• Modelling

• Observations

• Education and outreach

Recommendations

• Assess horizons of predictability and management• Establish a baseline for identifying change• Develop improved predictive capabilities, using integrated ecosystems

approach, considering multiple abiotic and biotic factors and assess the role of climate change in comparison to other natural and human drivers. Drive model improvement with sustained observations and comprehensive studies.

• Build the NE observing system, with sustained observations at key sites, broad surveys, quantification of estuarine, atmospheric, alongshore, and offshore exchanges.

• Comprehensive research studies to resolve high temporal and spatial variability and critical processes and build improved understanding, parameterizations and models.

• Develop an adaptive approach to management with research in the loop and feedback to the researchers

• Foster ongoing dialog across climate, ecosystems, policy and across researchers, fisherman, NOAA, and managers and other stakeholders.

Timeline• Near-term 0-3 years

– Start baseline assessment– Identify priority elements of NE obs system– Assess present climate and ecosystems models and develop strategy to go forward– Initiate program to assess horizons of predictability, what limits skillful prediction: b.c.,

parameterizations, physics, biology,…– Initiate a diverse working group to continue interaction, review progress, and improve

plans

• 3-7 years– Complete baseline assessment– Establish sustained obs at key and reference sites; begin process studies addressing

limitations to prediction– Produce and validate improved surface forcing; integrate improved forcing with

improved regional atmospheric and climate models– Establish partnerships to obtain data from the boundaries (coast, open ocean, north,

south)– Begin building integrated ecosystems model system, provide operational and research

results to community– Institute model validation experiments, keying on intensive studies, time series at key

sites, broad scale sampling, and historical data to test hindcasting

Timeline

• 7-15 years– Build the model system into a NE region adaptive ecosystem-based management

approach, develop products sought by managers. Target decadal scale variability and longer term change as the goal of this phase.

– Operate and improve NE obs system; embed it in and link to ocean, atmosphere, and land observing systems. Develop and include automated observing systems for key biological elements such as plankton, intertidal organisms, and benthos.

– Carry out comprehensive studies to resolve processes, build parameterizations, and test and improve models.

– Institute a 4-year cycle to document change in the physical and biological systems of the NE, the success of models (predictive and hindcast), the effectiveness of the observing system, and the success and continuing challenges of an ecosystems-based approach to management.