Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections

Paul Davison, Research Team Leader Stirling Council

Content

• My experiences only* (may/ june 2009)

• POPGROUP & Other resources

• Workshop activity

*compare with Fife, Highland, Aberdeen City/Shire, G&CV et al

Drivers

• Local Development Plan(also Local Housing Strategy/

HNDA)• Promoting discussion and

greater understanding• Investigating scenarios and

aspirations• Encouraging a vision

Local Development Plan (LDP) Area

Defining Geographies

Scenarios1. Principal Projection. Assumptions as for

standard GRO(S) projections.2. New-world order (v1) Reduced in-migration and

fertility in early period of projection.3. V1 variant projection (v1f) – as scenario v1 but

no fertility adjustments from principal.4. Pessimistic scenario (v2) Lower net working-

age in-migration and fertility throughout projection.

5. Aspirational scenario (90k) – 90,000 for LDP area by 2032

GRO(S) Inputs for defined area• Fertility, Mortality and

Migration estimates• Household estimates and

Headship rates projections, communal establishment figures

Pop Projections

HH Projections

Pop Scenarios

Headship Scenarios

Housing Unit Requirements

POPGROUP

Spreadsheet

Spreadsheet

Headship Scenarios

Stock, vacancies, demolitions, 2nd homes

Population Projections

72,000

74,000

76,000

78,000

80,000

82,000

84,000

86,000

88,000

90,000

92,000

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

Principal

v1

v1f

v2

90k

Household Projections

32000

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

44000

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

Principal

v1

v1f

v2

90k

Projected Housing Requirements• No. of housing units• With and without Major Growth Area (MGA) Population Projection v1 (realistic) 90k (aspiration)

Year with MGA without MGA with MGA without MGA 2012 -397 -142 -221 46 2017 -1171 486 -791 1000 2022 -438 2282 152 3027 2032 2382 5257 4050 6925

Negative figures indicate a projected surplus in housing

POPGROUP http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/

• Any area or sub-populations.• Past information and their assumptions about the

future for births and fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration

• Standard cohort component method to produce projections

• Provides results in Excel sheets with data extraction and chart routines available.

• POPGROUP Input data available from GRO(S)• Additional local data on request• Training & online resources

Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area

Population Base for year: 2006

Check sums of all persons entered ……..87,810 87,810

Population Group ……………………………..Sex Age Stirling SC_areamale 0 446 446male 1 482 482male 2 528 528male 3 498 498male 4 464 464male 5 484 484male 6 512 512male 7 574 574male 8 566 566male 9 555 555male 10 529 529male 11 551 551male 12 585 585male 13 577 577male 14 598 598male 15 571 571male 16 590 590male 17 656 656male 18 869 869male 19 735 735male 20 723 723male 21 656 656male 22 625 625male 23 549 549male 24 490 490male 25 506 506male 26 392 392male 27 427 427male 28 285 285male 29 318 318male 30 304 304male 31 378 378male 32 382 382

Validate

Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area

Annual AssumptionsFertility

Total, all groups Stirling Council AreaBIRTHS Year beginning July 1

Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Provide total birthsTrend total births

Provide births by sexDouble click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below

Data TotalMales

Females

FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS (by which to multiply the single age schedule)

Year beginning July 1

Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Provide total

Trend totalProvide age values a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

Trend age valuesDouble click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below

Data TotalAge

female 15-19 1.00 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91female 20-24 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98female 25-29 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00female 30-34 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98female 35-39 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95female 40-44 1.00 1.06 1.10 1.12 1.12 1.10 1.06 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96female 45-49 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VALIDATE

Go to Births Go to Differentials Go to TFRs

Options w izardMORTALITY DIFFERENTIALS (by which to multiply the single year age-sex schedule)Year beginning July 1

Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Provide Total

Trend TotalProvide Age-sex a

Trend Age-sex a a a a a a a a a a a a a

Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below

Data TotalSex Agemale Newborn/ 0 0.76male 1-4 0.76male 5-9 0.76male 10-14 0.76male 15-19 0.76male 20-24 0.76male 25-29 0.76male 30-34 0.76male 35-39 0.76male 40-44 0.76male 45-49 0.76male 50-54 0.76male 55-59 0.76male 60-64 0.87male 65-69 0.87male 70-74 0.87male 75-79 0.87male 80-84 1.01male 85+ 1.01

Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_AreaAnnual Assumptions

MigrationPopulation Group: Stirling Council Area

Migrants Year beginning July 1

Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Provide total migrants

Trend total migrantsProvide age-sex mgts a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

NOTE Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below

Data TotalSex Age

male 0-4 106 102 97 97 99 96 95 95 95 95 95 95 95male 5-9 68 65 64 64 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61male 10-14 74 70 69 68 68 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65male 15-19 343 332 330 325 323 320 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 3male 20-24 171 163 159 158 155 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 1male 25-29 127 123 117 114 113 111 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 1male 30-34 136 127 122 122 121 118 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 1male 35-39 112 110 103 103 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98male 40-44 81 77 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72male 45-49 46 44 44 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41male 50-54 43 39 38 38 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35male 55-59 34 32 32 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29male 60-64 25 23 24 21 20 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23male 65-69 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11male 70-74 11 11 12 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

VALIDATE

Go to Migrants Go to Differentials Go to SMigRs

Options w izardPOPGROUP - Population Estimates and Forecasts

Information for this scenario

Scenario identifier: Principal_v1

Contact details (to be included on all output files)Organisation/Department Name: Stirling Council Research team

Other information(e.g. contact details)

Final year for this forecast 2032

Double click to browse for directory or workbook names Default Directory for the input workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_inp\

Directory for the output workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_out\

Save your input fInput workbook names (you do not need to give the .xls suffix for any workbook names) running the mode

Base population popbaseBirths & fertility fert_v1 Migration We

Deaths & Mortality mort Pop'n HousingIn-migration from the UK (optional) Mig_INUK_v1 50% 100%

Out-migration to the UK (optional) Mig_OUTUK_v1v2 50% 0%In-migration from Overseas (optional) 0% 0%

Out-migration to Overseas (optional) 0% 0%Special Groups (optional)

Output workbooks (named automatically from the scenario identifier)

RUN THE MODEL

Workshop Task

• Sunnyside and Raintown District Council

• In Groups – Same Task• Scribe, Reporter & Artist in

Residence