workshop coastal disasters recent tsunamis & cyclone storm...
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WORKSHOP
Coastal DisastersRecent Tsunamis & Cyclone Storm Surges
Tomoya ShibayamaProfessor, Waseda University
Tsunami, Storm Surge, High Wave (Coastal Erosion), Earthquake, Liquefaction, Volcanic Eruption, Fire, River Flood, Drought, Landslide,
Basic Approach① Field Survey+Numerical Simulation+Hydraulic Experiment
Creation of Real Image of Disaster Common Images with Local Residents
② Variety of different scenarios of disasters in local conditions It is necessary to decipher the social context of disasters,
to prepare disaster reduction scenarios, andto work with local government staffs and local
residents.
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Frequent Attacks of Tsunamis and Storm Surges
Recent Field Surveys of my own Number of Losses and Unknowns
2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Sri Lanka, Indonesia,Thailand 220,000
2005 Storm Surge by Hurricane Katrina, USA 1,200
2006 Java Tsunami, Indonesia 668
2007 Storm Surge by Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh 5,100
1970: 400,000 1991: 140,000 (Construction of Cyclone Shelters)
2008 Storm Surge by Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 138,000
2009 Tsunami in Samoa Islands, Samoa 183
2010 Chile Tsunami, Chile 500
2010 Tsunami in Mentawai islands, Indonesia 500
2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan Death15,782 Unknown 4,086
2012 Storm Surge by Hurricane Sandy, USA (New York City) 170 (USA80)
2013 Storm Surge by Typhoon Yolanda, Phillipines 4,011+1,602
2014 Storm Surge in Nemuro, Hokkaido Island, Japan, 0
2018 Storm Surge by Typhoon Jebi, Osaka, Japan, 13
2018 Tsunami in Palu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, 2,081+1,3092
(Program Officer)Tomoya Shibayama, ProfessorMarch, 1977 B. E. in Civil Engineering, University of TokyoMarch, 1985 Dr. of Engineering, University of TokyoMay, 1985 Lecturer, University of Tokyo
March, 1986 Associate Professor, University of TokyoApril, 1987 Associate Professor, Yokohama National University (YNU)August, 1997 Professor, Yokohama National UniversityApril, 2009 Professor, Waseda University Emeritus Professor, YNU
Professor Tomoya Shibayama is one of the top technical experts of tsunami and storm
surge disaster mitigation in Japan. He performs hydraulic laboratory experiments, field surveys and numerical simulations for his mitigation study. He served as a team leader of all major tsunami and storm surge events in Japan and overseas over the last fifteen years.
Background• Japanese islands are so-called “Disaster Islands”.• There is no concrete national strategy and procedure for protection of residents. Impact on Society• Change viewpoints from the government to individual resident. • Quantify complex risk at citizen’s level.• Disaster risk is added to individual's needs such as selection of residents, properties,
schools, super markets etc. • Change the future land-use based on the individual selection• Based on above implications, Japanese people gradually withdraw from high-risk areas
in next 100 years.• New social system is proposed for gradual change to conquer local vulnerability by
relocating citizens, based on Japanese social changes including declining birthrate and aging.
Challenges and Possible Impact to Society
Remarkable Innovation
Approach to Success• Based on the most advanced research results of disaster studies in Japan, we will establish a
concept of complex disaster. Individual disaster such as Earthquake, Tsunami, Storm Surge are re-organized to time history of a complex disaster such as, (1) Earthquake, Fire, Liquefaction, Tsunami, (2) Typhoon, Strong Wind, Heavy Rain, Storm Surge, Flood or (3) Earthquake, Volcanic Eruption, Volcanic Ash Distribution , Flood.
• We organize co-operative research system and promote joint research in project group. Management Strategy• A part of the project will be planned based on public offering.• Every year, we examine members of the project and will change the members. New
members will be invited if necessary. • The Program Officer participate weekly research group meeting and make all information
open to all members.• Project members have individual consultation with the Program Officer every 2 weeks and
deliver presentation of progress report to all members every one month. These accelerate development speed and harmonize the cooperation of members.
Final Goal• Final Judgement Scale: Completeness and Practicality of the Package of New Risk Evaluation
System of Complex Disaster and Social System.• Required Level:High Level Quantification to Change Individual Decision Making Process.
Risk of Project : It is necessary to quantify different risks in the same level of accuracy.
Breakthrough Limitation of Existing Technology:• Residents continue to live in the same area.• Risk is not reduced. How to exceed the limitation? • Individual risk is quantified. Final Goal:• No loss of lives due to disasters.
Scenario for Success and Goal
Institute of Future Sustainable Society, Waseda University
Support Acceleration
Social MovementIndividual Decision
• Image of Complex Disaster
• Quantified Risk
• Education of Disaster Consultants
• New Social System
From Government to Individual Citizen
Reduction of Total Risk of
Complex Disaster
Relocationof Land Use
Disengagement from Disaster Archipelago
Individual Behavior of Selection Reduces Change of Land-use
Timely Social System Accelerates Social Changes
High Disaster Risk Difficulty in Complex Disaster
Citizens Know and Select Their Safety
What should you do if a Tsunami was coming to your area in 40 minutes?
Take our first edX course
Study the mechanisms of coastal disasters
Plan for disaster evacuation
Tsunamis and Storm Surges: Introduction to Coastal Disasters
Prof. Tomoya ShibayamaA leading researcher of coastal disaster prevention and coastal engineering at Waseda University
Waseda edX
Started January 18th, 2016 Take the course for freeNow self-paced
Enroll Now!
2500 learners 120 countries
USA(19%)Japan(15%) India(6%) U.K.
(4%) Chile(3%) Canada(3%) Spain(3%) Indonesia(3%) Netherland(2%)Philippines(2%)
MOOC( Massive Open Online Course)
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Recent Progress of Numerical Simulation and Hydraulic
Laboratory Experiment for Tsunami and Storm Surge Study
Tomoya ShibayamaProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Takahito Mikami and Ryota Nakamura
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Frequent attacks by tsunamis and storm surges
Field Surveys New Findings New Analysis
1) Mechanism of Disasters ---- Hydraulic Laboratory Experiment, Turbulence Numerical Model
2) Change of Storm Trend due to Global Warming----- Improvement of Numerical Prediction Methods and Future Predictions
3) (Social Study of Coastal Region) Social Stratification, Preparedness
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Important findings through field surveys to be examined by laboratory tests.
1. Different Wave Behaviors Solitary Wave (Java Tsunami)Dam Break WaveContinuous Overflow (Tohoku Tsunami)Bore Wave: both for tsunami and storm surge events
Cyclone Sidr (Shibayama et al., 2009)Typhoon Yolanda (Roeber and Bricker, 2015, Nakamura et al., 2016)
2. Coastal dykes failed due to a continuous and prolonged water overflow for fifteen minutes or more, such as during the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami or the storm surge during hurricane Katrina (see Shibayama, 2015). 3. Coastal forests played an important role to increase water depth behind coastal dykes and prevent the appearance of supercritical flow over dykes (Tohoku Tsunami, Matsuba et al., 2014).4. Inundation patterns were strongly influenced by the local topography in Tohoku Tsunami, Indian Ocean Tsunami, storm surges due to hurricane Katrina (Shibayama et al., 2005) and the storm surge in Nemuro.5.Detached breakwaters are a common way to protect against wind waves along the shorelines in Japan, though these can offer some degree of protection against tsunamis. 6.The transportation of debris by flooding water can exacerbate the destruction caused to structures and houses (storm surge due to hurricane Katrina and typhoon Yolanda, Chilean tsunami, Tohoku Tsunami).
Tohoku Tsunami: Japanese Debates on the Reconstruction Process
The idea that hard measures can protect against the loss of life has been discarded.
Level I Tsunami Protection Height
1. The function of coastal structures would be to attempt to protect property or to help
evacuation process against the more frequent but low-level events (typically with a return
period of several decades to 150 years). “Once for 100 years” Coastal protection
structures are designed for this tsunami height.
Level II Tsunami Protection Height
2. Soft measures (Evacuation), on the other hand, would be used to protect lives, and be
designed with more infrequent higher level events (with much longer return periods, for
example 1,000 years). “once for 1000 years”
For Level II tsunami, structures are overflowed but are required not to be destructed. They are
expected to reflect tsunami partially and will assist evacuation process by reducing tsunami
height and delaying tsunami flood time.
4 m
9 m
0.5 m1 m
0.5 m
chambers
air valves
4 chambers
4 air valves for each chamber
connected to vacuum pump
slope(1/20)
slope(1/10)
2 m 2 m0.5 m
: Current Meter
sho
relin
e
detached breakwaters
: Wave Gauge
2 m
ld
lo
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Survey Report of
the 2018 Sulawesi Tsunami(Septermber 28, 2018)
Waseda Tsunami Survey Team
Team Leader: Prof. Tomoya Shibayama
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27-31 October 2018
Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society
Waseda University
Members are from Indonesia, Japan, USA, Canada, and
Germany
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1)Survey of tsunami inundation heights distribution
2) Interviews and questionnaire survey to residents on Tsunami behavior and their evacuation
3)Three dimensional image processing by using a drone
4)Sonner sounding of shallow water bathymetry in Palu Bay
5)Survey of broken structures and buildings
Field Interviews
• All the residents mentioned that three wave hit the coast throughout the bay (going from smallest to largest), which does not necessarily fit the multiple landslides narrative.
• The Tsunami Inundation Survey team also talked to residents closer to the epicenter who observed a wave travelling south (towards Palu Bay) so the wave also likely contributed to the tsunami in Palu.
Tsunami Source SurveyField Investigation of 2018 Palu City Tsunami
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Tyhoon Yolanda
Track data: The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo Best Track Datahttp://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/trackarchives.html
Time of Generation: 2013-11-04 00:00 UTCTime of Disappearance: 2013-11-11 06:00 UTCDuration: 174 hoursMinimum Pressure: 895 hPaMaximum Wind Speed: 64.3 m/sNumber of Victims: 6201 (Jan. 14 in the Philippines)Number of Unknowns: 1785(Jan. 14 in the Philippines)
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Coast levee or Dike
Typhoon, Cyclone, Hurricane
(1) Wave (Run-up)
Wind
(2) Wind Driven Surge
(3) Pressure Surge
(4) Tide
Future Predictions-------Numerical SimulationNakamura, R., Shibayama, T., Ohira, K., Tasnim, M.K. (2014)
*(2) + (3)= Storm SurgeFig. An image of phenomena when typhoon
Components of Storm Surge
Second Findings: Change of Storm Behaviors due to Climate Changes
Rapid Development: Yolanda (2013), Nemuro (2014)Route Change : Nargis (2008)
WRF
XTide
Result
Wind speed, Pressure, Heat flux, Vapor flux, Rain fall
Storm Surge (Wind + Pressure)
Wind Waves, Wave setup←S-WAVE(SWAN by Delft Univ. of Tech, Booji et al., 1999)
Weather Research and Forecasting model
Mesoscale Model, Skamarock et al, 2008)
Tidal Prediction
GFS Data (NOAA)Meteorological data of
whole globe
Choosing Area
FVCOMThe Unstructured Grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model
(Chen et al., 2003)
Tide
TC-Bogus Scheme
Improve vortex condition in the center
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MIROC5
Future Prediction of Meteorological Condition
Surfece Temperature of
Ocean and Ground
Storm Surge Prediction Model (Nakamura and Shibayama, 2014)
Coupled Weather-Storm surge-wave-tide model
WRF-FVCOM-Xtide-MIROC5
(Watanabe et al., 2008)
(Flater, 1998)
(Kurihara et al., 1993)
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ANDSTORMSURGES INTHEARABIANSEA
Mohsen Soltanpour, K. N. Toosi University of TechnologyZahra Ranji, K. N. Toosi University of Technology
Tomoya Shibayama, Waseda UniversitySarmad Ghader, University of Tehran
Shinsaku Nishizaki, Waseda University
K. N. ToosiUniversity of Technology
Waseda University
Tehran University
Study Area
Motivation
Numerical
Simulation
Conclusion
3/19
Gonu, 2007 Ashobaa, 2015
Target
Cyclones
FUTURE WAVE PROJECTION DURING THE TYPHOON AND WINTER STORM SEASON
1Shinsaku Nishizaki, 2Ryota Nakamura, 3Tomoya Shibayama, 4Jacob Stolle
1. Shikoku Electric Power Co., Inc.
2. Toyohashi University of Technology
3. Waseda University
4. University of Ottawa
Figure 1. Severe climate events around Japanese islands
Figure 2. Historical events in Oct. and Dec., 2014(image after; Japan Meteorological Agency)
12/17
9AM
10/14
9AM
• 2 Typhoons, Phanfone and Vongfong, landed at Japanese islands in October 2014 and maximum recorded significant wave heights were observed
• One extratropical cyclone developed at northern Japan and caused a storm surge in Nemuro, Hokkaido in December 2014
• The year 2014 is considered to be one of the most active years in terms of wave heights
2. Target area and period 19
Predict future waves
Calculate significant wave heights and periods
Wave Model SWAN
(Booij et al., 1999)
Input wind results extracted from WRF simulation
Meteorological Model WRF(Skamarock et al., 2008)
WPS WRF+
Give initial and boundary conditions
Meteorological data (NCEP FNL)
Sea surfacetemperature
Temperature
Atmospheric pressure
Relative humidity
Wind speed etc…
Ensemble results of 26 GCMs are used for the difference of SST between present and future cases.
Sea surfacetemperature
Meteorological data (NCEP FNL)
Sea surfacetemperature
Temperature
Atmospheric pressure
Relative humidity
Wind speed etc…
3.2 Methodology (Future Case) 20
domain 1 122.1°E ~ 151.9°E 19.6°N ~ 49.4°N
domain 2 125.6°E ~ 147.8°E 23.9°N ~ 46.8°N
domain 1 0.15° 201 × 201
domain 2 0.05° 445 × 460
Area
resolution
Input data intervals
Calculation intervals
Number of vertical layers
WSM 3-class simple ice scheme
36 layers
60 s
6 hours
Micro physics
rrtmg schemeShortwave radiation
Meteorological data FNL ( 1°× 1°)
10/01/2014 00:00 ~ 11/01/2014 00:00
Domain
settings
12/01/2014 00:00 ~ 01/01/2015 00:00Calculation Period (UTC)
Geography data USGS
Longwave radiation
Planetary Boundary Layer
rrtmg scheme
YSU scheme
Table 1. Calculation conditions for WRF
Table 2. Calculation conditions for SWAN
Figure 4. Calculation domains for WRF and SWAN
Kanazaw
a
Shizuoka
Omaezaki
domain 1 122.5°E ~ 151.0°E 20.0°N ~ 48.5°N
domain 2 127.0°E ~ 147.5°E 25.0°N ~ 46.0°N
domain 1 0.15° 190 × 190
domain 2 0.05° 410 × 420
10/01/2014 00:00 ~ 11/01/2014 00:00
12/01/2014 00:00 ~ 01/01/2015 00:00Calculation Period (UTC)
Domain
Settings
Area
resolution
Calculation mode Non-stationary / 2 dimension
Whitecapping Komen
Direction division number 36 (θ=10°)
Frequency division number 39 (0.025 ~ 1.0 Hz)
maximum number of iterations 5
time step 5 min
Bathymetry data GEBCO2014
3.3 Calculation conditions 21
• Although the SST increase resulted in more intense typhoons and
it led to higher Hs on the Pacific Ocean in October, the effects of
SST increase were less important for the extratropical cyclones in
December.
• It is clearer that Hs < 2.0 m decreased and 2.0 m ≤ Hs < 5.0 m
increased on the Pacific Ocean in October when more intense
typhoons were formed.
• It is probable that the frequency distribution of significant waves
will change around the area where future SST increment is
dominant.
6. Conclusion 22
36th International Conference on Coastal Engineering August 1, 2018
23
TSUNAMI CASUALTY ESTIMATION CONSIDERING
INTENDED EVACUATION BEHAVIOR
OF LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
Tomoyuki TAKABATAKE, Tomoya Shibayama, Esteban Miguel
Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
36th International Conference on Coastal Engineering August 1, 2018
1. Introduction
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Most studies have expressed evacuation start time for evacuees in a very simple
way (e.g. start at the same time / follow a simple distribution function)
A variety of evacuation triggers that can prompt evacuees to start their
evacuation should be considered (Mikami & Shibayama 2016)
Most studies have assumed that evacuees proceed to the closest evacuation place
via the shortest route (the detailed intended evacuation behavior of visitors has
been neglected)
Visitors’ evacuation route choice should be considered (Takabatake et al.
2017)
This study proposes an agent-based tsunami evacuation simulation model that
considers a variety of types of intended evacuation behavior of local residents,
tourists and beach users
The developed model was applied to Yuigahama Beach in Kamakura City, Japan
to estimate to estimate the potential casualties that can result from a tsunami
event
36th International Conference on Coastal Engineering August 1, 2018
4. Results - Casualty estimation -
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Keicho earthquake & tsunami
The number of evacuees and the age distribution ratio (0-14, 15-64, 65>) was set
based on the study area’s census (2015).
Local residents: 5,778 / Tourists: 5,877 / Beach users: 9,840
100m 200m0
The Tohoku Re-Construction Process after the 2011 Tsunami
Tohoku Tsunami: Natori City Coastal Erosion
Teizan Canal
Original Shoreline
Three different approaches
1. Construction of high coastal dike again and protection of low land area against the next tsunami attack. (Tarou)
2. Making artificial elevated area over old downtown in low land area by land fill. Use the elevated surface for residential area. (Rikuzentakata)
3. Movement to higher hill side and developing new residential area. (Onagawa)
Those methods are commonly used in part in these cities.
Tarou
Height of Tsunami Barrier wall is changed
from 10m to 14.7m.
New Wall
Old Wall
Rikuzentakata
Raise the Ground Level Elevation for 10-12m
There are selections for residents.1) Natural Hill (45 ha)2) New Artificial Hill (91 ha)
New Artificial Hill
Onagawa
Change of Land-use:
Downtown in Low Land
No Residence, Open space
Construction of New Residence Area in Natural Hill
New Residential Area
Old Downtown
Arahama
Movement
All residents moved to a new area in inland.