workforce labor demands, studies & forecasts - part 3
TRANSCRIPT
Labor Shortage Risk Mitigation
Energy Construction Forum Galveston March 3-4
Harry Harrison, Wood Group Mustang Brian Stamper, CURT/CLMA
Leading Global EPCM Provider
• Founded 1987 in Houston, Texas
• Joined Wood Group in 2000
• Rebranded to Wood Group Mustang in 2012
• More than 11,000 projects for 350 clients
• Consistently ranked as a Top Workplace
• Approximately 8,500 employees worldwide
• Core services: – Project management – Engineering – Procurement – Construction management
Our Core Values
Industry’s Challenge
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The Problem
Ø Skilled labor demand far exceeds skilled labor supply
Ø Labor shortages equals high risk, painful cost escalation
Ø Industry has lacked an effective, dynamic way to understand labor risk & plan
The Challenge
Ø What and where are the challenges
Ø Which industry sectors?
Ø Which crafts
Ø Short-term or long-term?
Supply/Demand Gap
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The past year saw an increase of… ≈ 200k in skilled labor demand ≈ 150k entered/re-‐entered labor force
Supply/Demand Gap
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The Industrial Market • Peak Demand of over 1.2m CraC Demand by industrial markets • 30% Power GeneraGon ≈ 360k in skilled labor demand
• Peaks – Q1 2018 • 25% Manufacturing ≈ 300k in skilled labor demand
• Peaks -‐ Q2 2016 • 23% Process ≈ 275k in skilled labor demand
• Peaks -‐ Q1 2017 • 15% Chemical ≈ 180K in skilled labor demand
• Peaks -‐ Q1 2017 • 5% Refinery ≈ 61k in skilled labor demand
• Peaks -‐ Q2 2017 • 2% Other ≈ 24k in skilled labor demand
• Peaks – Q2 2015
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Market Pressures (Age Demographics)
An es6mated 17% of the construc6on
workforce will re6re in the next decade or
so, represen6ng aBri6on of about 800,000 skilled workers. The percentage for
supervision is much higher.
24.9% 15.5% 3.9%
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Market Pressures (Gas Plays)
• Energy • Natural gas prices • Made in America resurgence • Labor cost increases overseas • NG construction past 5 years ≈ 46% ▲
Source: Associated General Contractors of America
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Gulf Coast Base-to-Peak
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Sophisticated. Not Complicated.
Owners
Contractors
Unions
Governments
Underwriters
Suppliers
Brokers
Consultants
A/E Firms
Industrial & Non-Industrial Projects
(Demand)
Worker data input by contractors & unions (Supply) ü Secure
ü ConfidenGal ü AnG-‐Trust Protected ü 90-‐Day Updates
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• More than 4M projects
• Value of projects ≈ $4.25T
• Over 70% of U.S. non-‐residenGal construcGon
• Over 76% Industrial construcGon
• About 68% Non-‐Industrial construcGon
• Tracks 49 craC disciplines
• Now tracking 14 management / supervisor posiGons
The CLMA® Database
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Easy Project Input Project Name:
Enter a unique project name/code
Project Class: • New Construction • Maintenance/ Shutdown
Project Type: • Capital • Annual Capital Program • Maintenance • Ongoing Maintenance
Industry Type: Choose from 99 industrial and non-industrial industry types. If the industry type you need isn’t there, we’ll customize
one for you.
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Easy Project Input
Project Status: Select your project status
from 11 options ranging from Conceptual Planning (pre-FEL) to Construction Completed
or On-Hold
Probability: Enter the % likely that the
project will commence
Time Units: Indicate your preference for tracking labor utilization –
Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Total Project Cost: Enter the total installed cost
of the project
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Easy Project Input Start / End Date:
Indicate the estimated date construction will begin and the estimated construction
completion date
Zip Code: Input the project zip code
Project Notes: Enter any relevant notes
Bundled Projects: Bundle multiple small projects with the same zip code and
similar start/end dates, and list them here
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Sample Project
Project Descrip6on Chemical LA
Project Type New ConstrucGon
Project Loca6on Baton Rouge, LA
Industry Type Chemical
Project Status Early FEL 1
Project Cost $1.35B
PLF® Identifies Project Labor Needs
Quickly understand your skilled labor requirements on
a craft-by-craft basis, along with peak headcount overall
and by craft.
Chemical Project Louisiana
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1,251
Click the Risk Indicator & find mitigation options that
correlate to the CURT® Skilled Labor Shortage Risk
Mitigation white paper.
Visualize Risk. Take Action.
Chemical Project Louisiana
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Customize Risk Profile
Chemical Project Louisiana
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Analyze Competition for Crafts
Analyze project labor challenges and risk
dynamically
Visualize your project’s competition for skilled labor
on a craft-by-craft basis
Chemical Project Louisiana
Labor Supply – U.S. Sample
Sample
Data for
Demo
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Labor Supply – TX Sample
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Sample
Data for
Demo
Labor Supply – TX Sample
Sample
Data for
Demo
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Market Demand (TX Sample)
5% Growth
Age 60 Attrition
Visualize age attrition over time & required replacement of
crafts to meet demand
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Market Pressures (Today’s Issues)
Project cancella6ons Project start delays
No impact Re-‐work
Overall project budget Safety
Absenteeism Schedule Turnover Quality
Produc6vity Cost of labor
7% 15%
19% 23% 25% 27% 28%
35% 36%
45% 49% 52%
Na6onal survey of 531 construc6on industry leaders
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Market Pressures (Today’s Issues)
Na6onal survey of 100 construc6on industry leaders
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Finding Labor Issues (Today’s Issues)
Na6onal survey of 100 construc6on industry leaders
79%
21%
Yes No
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Safety Issues (Today’s Issues)
Na6onal survey of 100 construc6on industry leaders
65%
35% Yes No
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