work and automation - 2. which ethical principle "innocent until proven guilty beyond a shadow...
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Work and automation - 2
Which ethical principle
• "Innocent until proven guilty beyond a shadow of a doubt" is best espoused by which ethical framework?
A. Rule utilitarianismB. KantianismC. Virtue ethicsD. Social contract theory
Were the Luddites Right?
• Will technology destroy some people’s lives as they know them?
• If so, is it worth the price for the greater good?
• Can side effects be mitigated?
Elderly Support Ratio
Elderly Support Ratio 2050
Country Ratio
Niger 19
Uganda 16
Guatamala 7
Pakistan 7
Egypt 5
India 5
Morocco 4
United States 3
Mexico 3
China 3
France 2
Japan 1
Can We Predict the Impact of New Technology?
Can We Predict?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAHdX2I4fuE
Can We Predict?
John Mauchley, 1962: predicted everyone will be walking around with his own personalized computer within a decade.
Our Inability to Predict Impact
• Future predictions
• More hopelessly wrong predictions
• Can we predict the impact of:• The Internet?• Household and factory robots?• Human-level AI?• Human genome sequencing
Collingridge’s Argument
• "It must be known that a technology has, or will have, harmful effects, and
• it must be possible to change the technology in some way to avoid the effects."
To avoid undesired consequences:
At early stage the problem is:
At late stage the problem is:
Unreliability
• Computers go down.
• Are people more reliable?
• Is the unreliability different?
• Which is more pernicious?
Humanizing or Dehumanizing?
Is this right?
Repetitive assembly line jobs
No boring jobs left
Human dignity
Time
From Robotic Nation, by Marshall Brain
There will be huge job losses by 2040 or 2050 as robots move into the workplace. For example:
• Nearly every construction job: ~6 million jobs. • Nearly every manufacturing job: ~16 million jobs lost. • Nearly every transportation job: ~3 million jobs lost. • Many wholesale and retail jobs: at least 15 million lost jobs. • Nearly every hotel and restaurant job: ~10 million jobs lost.
If you add that all up, it's over 50 million jobs lost to robots. That is a conservative estimate. By 2050 or so, it is very likely that over half the jobs in the United States will be held by robots.
Payroll taxes
A. Payroll taxes will decrease with increasing automation, and the government will go bankrupt
B. Payroll taxes will be replaced by corporate taxes, and the government will have its revenue
C. Government gets revenue from owning sources of production
Clicker
Company A, a private company with 200 people, cannot make its payroll. So it has the choice of laying people off, or forcing everyone to take a 2 week unpaid vacation. Which is better?A. LayoffB. Forced vacation
• What would be your choice if the company announced this 3 months in advance, so people have more time to prepare?
Luddite Fallacy Fallacy
• Increasing automation will replace many jobs• Wealth will get concentrated in a few hands• No-one to buy good and services produced by
the wealthy – no mass market• Collapse of the economy
Contrast with the Previous 50 Years
• If you walked into a restaurant, hotel or store in 1950, it would be nearly identical to a restaurant, hotel or store today. People do everything in both cases -- people stock the shelves, prepare the food, serve the food, help customers, man the cash registers and sweep the floors just like they did in 1950.
• It's the same on any construction site. In 1950, guys with circular saws and hammers built houses. Today it is guys with circular saws and nail guns. No big difference.
• An airport in 1950 and an airport today are nearly identical. People take your tickets, handle the baggage, maintain the planes and pilot them in both cases.
Contrast with the Previous 50 Years
• Coney island in 1950 looks like any amusement park today, with people operating the rides, selling the concessions and keeping the park clean.
But Another Perspective - GoneGone:• Automobile assembly (much of it)• Gas station attendant• Switchboard operator• Typist
But Another Perspective - GoneGone:• Mail sorting• •
But Another PerspectiveOn the way out:• bank teller• cashier • home security guards • baby sitter • language translator • librarian • file clerk
The Luddite Fallacy
The Luddite view: automation will eliminate the need for human labor.
This view has been widely regarded as a fallacy because:
• Automation reduced cost and this increased demand. We all just have more stuff.
• Workers were not up against any hard productivity limit. Most workers have been smart enough to become more productive with the new technology.
The Luddite Fallacy FallacyThe Luddite view: automation will eliminate the need for human labor.The Luddite Fallacy view: The view that the Luddites were wrong, and human labor will not be displaced by automation.The Luddite Fallacy Fallacy: The Luddites were right, after all!
The Luddite fallacy view may now be wrong because:
• We are about at the limit of the amount of stuff we can exploit.• Workers are up against a hard productivity limit. Most workers
will not be smart enough to become more productive with the new technology. Even some very smart, skilled workers will be eclipsed by machines.
• Automation is global – displaced workers have nowhere to go!
Are less intelligent people getting left behind?
50% of the people have IQ < 100, by definition.A. IQ is very important to success in the US, no
ifs, ands or buts.B. IQ is not that important to success.C. IQ is necessary, but not sufficient.D. Other
Are we running out of stuff to make?
• Artificial demand creation in the computer industry– New version of software demand more processing
power– Leads to newer and better hardware (such as
processor chips, more memory)– Leads to software (like Windows, MS Word) that
uses processing power … and back above
True or False?
• Pretty much every important invention of the modern world – trains, planes, automobiles, air conditioning, antibiotics, painkillers, telephones, radio/television, computers – had already been invented and was in at-least-fairly widespread use in the sixties. The only thing since then has been the internet.
• Post-’70 it’s just been distribution, improvements (i.e. cell phones over land lines), and price reductions — important stuff, no doubt, but compared to the germ theory of disease or the electric motor? (Arguably even the internet is just a distribution thing.)
• Is the utility we provide now per extra hour of human effort (marginal utility) decreasing?
Marginal Utility – Where are we with respect to the utility of human labor?
Bobbin Lace
Bobbin Lace
Making It in America
U.S. Population in 1940: 142,164,569U.S. Population in 2010: 308,282,000
What is Productivity?
Labor productivity: amount of real GDP produced by an hour of labor.
To compute it: Divide real GDP by number of labor hours.
Example: Suppose the real GDP of an economy is $10 trillion and the aggregate hours of labor in the country was 300 billion. The labor productivity would be $10 trillion divided by 300 billion, or about $33 per labor hour.
Productivity vs Wages
Productivity vs Wages
Back to Income Disparity
The Rich Get Richer … Until …
The Rich Get Richer … Until …
… Until All the Customers Have No Money
Maintaining a Robust Market
In a future, largely automated economy, the preservation of robust market demand by providing an income stream to consumers will also have to become a core function of government.
Martin Ford’s “radical” idea:
Maintaining a Robust Market
Who wins now when automation replaces jobs:
• The business and its owners get higher profits.
• The customers get lower prices.
Maintaining a Robust Market
Who wins now when automation replaces jobs:
• The business and its owners get higher profits.
• The customers get lower prices.
• Wage recapture: the government takes a share that it can use to maintain the market.
Maintaining a Robust Market
Individual income depends on incentives that benefit everyone:
• Education.
• Community and civic activities.
• Journalism.
• The environment and other externalities.
• Population.
Working hours• Americans work more than any other nation.• Americans working hours have increased since WW2
by 160 hours / year – 1 full month's worth– Partly because of work-from-home
Working hours contd.
• Productivity (how much a person produces per hour) has doubled since WW2, but working hours haven't halved.
• So what do people do with the extra production?– Consumption has doubled – rat race warning!– 1964 – average house size 1472 sq ft, 20% chance of A/c
when built– Now – average 2100 sq ft, 100% chance of A/c when built.– Now – more TV's, hot tubs, lawns, etc.
Bobbin Lace
Bobbin Lace
Where Is the Responsibility?
Scenario: Sophisticated household robots are widely available.
The robot drops and seriously injures a baby.
Should the parents be able to sue the robot company?
A. No.
B. Probably not unless there is evidence that the company knew of flaws and ignored them.
C. Yes. The company will always be responsible.
Where Is the Responsibility?
Scenario: Sophisticated household robots are widely available.
The robot drops and seriously injures a baby.
Should the parents be able to sue the robot company?
A. No.
B. Probably not unless there is evidence that the company knew of flaws and ignored them.
C. Yes. The company will always be responsible.
Does your answer depend on how the robot failure rate compared with the failure rate of human caregivers?
Where Is the Responsibility?
Scenario: Sophisticated household robots are widely available.
The robot drops and seriously injures a baby.
Should CPS go after the parents?
A. No.
B. Probably not unless they knew of flaws and ignored them.
C. Yes. The parents will always be responsible.
Does your answer depend on how the robot failure rate compared with the failure rate of human caregivers?
Where Is the Responsibility?
Scenario: Sophisticated household robots are widely available.
The robot spills coffee on a guest who is badly burned.
Should the guest be able to sue the owners of the robot?
A. No.
B. Probably not unless there is evidence that they knew of flaws and ignored them.
C. Yes. The company will always be responsible.
Does your answer depend on how the robot failure rate compares with the failure rate of humans?
Where Is the Responsibility?
Scenario: Two cars crash in the intersection.
Should the people in the car be able to sue whoever is responsible for controlling the intersection?
A. No.
B. Probably not unless there is evidence that the company knew of flaws and ignored them.
C. Yes. The company will always be responsible.
Does your answer depend on how the autonomous vehicle failure rate compares with the failure rate of human drivers?
Globalization
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Globalization Basics
• Globalization: Process of creating a worldwide network of businesses and markets
• Globalization causes a greater mobility of goods, services, and capital around the world
• Globalization made possible through rapidly decreasing cost of information technology
Declines in Computing & Communication Costs Spurred Globalization
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Arguments for Globalization
• Increases competition• People in poorer countries deserve jobs,
too• It is a tried-and-true route for a poor
country to become prosperous• Global jobs reduce unrest and increase
stability
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Arguments against Globalization
• Makes the United States subordinate to the World Trade Organization
• Forces American workers to compete with foreigners who do not get decent wages and benefits
• Accelerates exodus of manufacturing and white-collar jobs from United States
• Hurts workers in foreign countries
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Dot-Com Bust Increases IT Sector Unemployment
• Dot-com: Internet-related start-up company• Early 2000: stock prices of dot-coms fell
sharply• Hundreds of dot-coms went out of
business• Half a million high-tech jobs lost
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Foreign Workers in the IT Industry
• Visas allow foreigners to work inside U.S.• H-1B
– Right to work up in United States to six years– Company must show no qualified Americans available– Congress still authorizes 65,000 H-1B visas per year, plus
20,000 more for foreigners with advanced degrees– Quota not filled in 2009 due to economic downturn
• L-1– Allows a company to transfer a worker from an overseas
facility to the United States– Workers do not need to be paid the prevailing wage– In 2006 about 50,000 foreigners in U.S. under L-1 visa
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Foreign Competition
• China is world’s number one producer of computer hardware
• IT outsourcing to India is growing rapidly• Number of college students in China increasing
rapidly• ACM Collegiate Programming Contest provides
evidence of global competition
Growth of China’s Computer-Hardware Industry
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Summary• Automation
– Job creation, job loss– Effects on productivity and leisure – Robots, intelligence, creativity & consciousness
• Workplace changes– Telecommuting– Workplace organizational changes– Monitoring– Global work teams
Summary Contd
• Globalization– Jobs going overseas– Benefits of globalization– Foreign competition– Foreign workers in the USA
• Digital Divide– Net neutrality– Technological divide– Online education, such as MOOC
Summary contd.
• Income disparity– Causes of winner-take-it-all society
• Marginally better products or services win substantially• Availability of best to everyone • How to reduce disparity
Summary
• What can we/will we be able to do?
• What effects can we predict?
• Are these outcomes that we want?
• What should we be doing to prepare?