Latest developments in the mobility industryRoad

23.04.2009

Wolfgang Müller-PietrallaHead of Future AffairsVolkswagen Group Research

20XX

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Complex and dynamic developments in society, environs, technology and politics.

Tough environment: More obstacles on the road

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Moments of awareness: Crisis, accidents, disasters

“When systems fail we become temporarily conscious of the extraordinary force and power of design, and the effects that it generates. Every accident provides a brief moment of awareness of real life, what is actually happening, and our dependence on the underlying systems of design.” (Massive Change, Bruce Mau)

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Underlying systems

Quelle: Raskin ert al, 2002

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Back Casting: From the future to the present

Forecast Foresight

TranslationMarket research

Innovation

Scenarios&

Visions

Future research

2009

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I 4

2015 t2009

General conditionsSociety/ Environment

Cycle planMarkets/ Products

Innovation managementInnovation/ Features

Research ProjectsTechnologies

Resources

PICTURE & VISION OF THE FUTURE

T1 T2 T4

T3

T6

T5

I 1 I 2

I 3

P1 P2 P3

P4

G1 G2

Investment / FinancesSupply Chain

Job profile

Road mapping as a strategic tool

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t

Picture of the futureScenarios: possible, probable, desirable

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Our approach: World Scenario Check

STEEP FACTORSSocietyTechnologyEconomyEcologyPolitics

Analysis of:220 Future Reports

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Drivers of Change: Key Factors from the WSC 2030

1. Classes in society and social structure: increase in inequality

2. Population dynamics: low mortality and birth rates = demographic shift, 9bil. 2050

3. Technological development: information and communication, nano, bio, info, cogno

4. Climate change and biodiversity: unexpected dynamics, irreversible

5. Energy supply: fossil fuels in the mid-term, regenerative in the long-term

6. Availability and price of resources: uncertain and unpredictable

7. Environmental and traffic policies: stringent regulations

8. Urbanisation: progressing, increased need for infrastructure and new concepts

9. Mobility and mobility infrastructure: on the rise, Car2X concepts

10. Information society: web 3.0, anytime, anywhere, anydata

11.Vehicle technology: conventional and alternative drivetrains, low- and zero emission

12.Corporate Social Responsibility: going beyond legal standards, sustainable reporting

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Travelers got and are getting…

In Touch with changing Travelers: Clear developments already visible, partially linked

Source: Arthur D. Little, Statistisches Bundesamt, F.U.R Reiseanalyse/RA 2007, Official Airline Guide (OAG), UNWTO, IPK International, CN, GfK

Travelers form Asia are showing highest growth rates: >10% p.a.

5 5

2

8

4 4

87,7910,2 8

6

World Europe Asia/Pacific

America Africa MiddleEast

2006/ 2005

2007/ 2006

The share of the over 60 year olds has been rising constantly within the last 5 year.

… older 1

17% 20% 19% 20% 21% 22% 26% 29% 35% 37%

1960 1980 2000 2020 204060 years and older

… more hybrid

Constant rise of the LC flights, as well as changes in travel expenses

2

100

1996 2000 2006

223

11879

Travels over 3.000€ ø travels expenses Travels under 500€

4%

22%

2001 2007

Share of the LCC traffic on the overall traffic in Europe

Changes in travelexpenses

Rising share of travelers, which are reading up on travels online and booking online.

… more digital 3

15%

27%

39%

9%

33%

19%15%

4%

2001 2003 2005 2007Information Booking

… more individual

Decreasing share of packaged tours

5

28%20%

33% 32% 29%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2020

… more ecologically aware

Ecological aspects have an increasing impact on purchase decision

6

15% 13%8%

19%

Going lessby car

Going lessby plane

Preferring regional

destinations

Generally less

vacation trips

… more Asiatic 4

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Recommendation

Kaufentscheidungzunehmend auf user-generated-content basierend, Erlebnisberichte

Virtualization

Erlebnisse in derOnlinewelt, Virtual Reality als Substitut für Reisen?

Sustainability

Verantwortungs-bewusstgetroffene Kaufentschei-dungen

Individuality

MaßgeschneiderteProdukte, individu-elleProzesse – fürEinzelpersonen & Kundensegmente

Learning

Überall und immer lernen

Convenience

Steigende Service-erwartung vor und während der Reise

Home-Holidays

AbnehmendeReiseintensität in gesättigten Märkten

Hybrid-Offers

Situationsabhängig, heterogene Kunden-anforderungen

Extreme Experiences

Vom Materialismus zumAktivismus: "Höher, schneller, weiter,… "

Luxury

Steigendes An-spruchsverhalten, Exklusivität, stärkereDifferenzierung

Cosmo-politics

Die Welt wächst zu-sammen. Relativierungvon Distanzen

Community

Vernetzung mitGleichgesinnten

Body Upgrades

– Medizin Tourismus– Wellness– Spirituelle

Selbstfindung

Always Online

Vernetzung rund um die Uhr auf der ganzen Welt. "Kleiner, schneller, besser,… "

Relaxation

Entspannung und Ruheals Gegenpol zumhektischen Alltag

The „Traveler 2020“ is characterized by high and changing demands – indications already visible

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

12

13

1411

15 Trends "Traveler 2020"

15

Source: Arthur D. Little

Relaxation and calmness as antipoleto stressful daily life

Connection 24h, all around the world.„Smaller, faster, better,...“

- Medical Tourism- Wellness- Spiritual Self-Discovery

Growing service expectations before and during traveling

Responsible purchase decisions

Connection with like-minded people

The world is growing together. Relativisationof distances

Rising demanding-attitude, exclusivity, stronger differentiation

Learning anytime and anywhere

Online experiences, virtual reality as replacement of traveling?

From materialism to activism: „Higher, faster, wider,...“

Situational, heterogeneous customer requirements

Decreasing travel-intensity in saturated markets

Customized products, individual processes: for customer segments & individuals

Purchase decision increasingly based on user-generated-based quality reports.

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Hybrid Customers with Highly Dynamic Personalities

Bildquelle: Corbis

Traveling - diversified

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9 brands, 178 models,6.3 Million automobils 2008

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EnginesCity and intercity

Special purpose Network and services

Intercity and coach

Haulage Construction Distribution

Product Portfolio SCANIA

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Volkswagen’s Powertrain- and Fuel StrategyOur cars use the whole range of available energy sources

Oil

Natural Gas

Gasoline / CNG

SynFuel

SunFuel®

Diesel Fuel

Renewable Electricity BatteryE-Drive

Fuel CellE-Drive

Hydrogen(Renewable)

TSI®

Hybrid

TDI®

DSG®

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Golf Twindrive: Downsizing and Hybrid Technologies for maximum efficiency

Starting with plug-in hybrid vehicles and then building on this to develop purely electric cars is the right approach.(Dr. M. Penth, Heidelberg Institut for Energy and Environmental Research)

12,7% 2020(Source Center for Automotive Research)

Research for the future

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Essence Customer Timing Blockbusters Code

Cornerstones of Innovation

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Car2X Mixed realities

Accident-free driving Custom-made cars

Driving ideas: Future innovations

Bio fuel car

TwinDrive

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THE CONNECTED CAR?yes, in a Connected World

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THE CITY CAR?no, but a variety of specific car and mobility concepts

Interieur Motives Design Award Interieur Motives Design Award

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Source: Kenworthy, Jeff; Newman, Peter (2007): Greening Urban Transportation. In: Worldwatch Institute (Hg.): State of the World 2007. Our urban future. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. Washington: Earthscan, pp. 66–85

Public-transport systems which are

quicker than the remaining road traffic

Lively centers along transport corridors

Good infrastructure for pedestrians and

bicyclists

Services and connections for

seamless mobility

Financing of public transport and transport infrastructure through

different charges

Continuous optimization of vehicle

technology

scope of duties: OEMscope of duties: state and city

A question of balance: Engineering of livable cities

Core elements of urban traffic planning

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close-up range radar

ultrasound

rear-camera

interior sensors

video camera

distant radar

multibeamlaser

THE ACCIDENT FREE CAR?perceiving better than humans

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FULLY AUTOMATIC CARS?first not, but with intelligent co-pilot and butler features

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ALTENAUTO?no, but age-based innovations for silver-agers

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THE FULLY ELECTRIC VEHICLE: definitely an alternative!

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Challenges Electric Vehicles: lifetime, costs, safety and range

Weight for 100 km in kg Gas Battery3 kg for 100 km <200 kg for 100 km

Range in Km for 1min refueling Gas Battery800 km in 1 min. 1 km in 1 min.

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From vision to reality: www.volkswagen2028.com

Volkswagen 2028.Our idea of the automotive future.

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Autonomous driving:the autopilot

Navigation 2028:your digital companion

Mobile devices: wirelesscommunication inside the vehicle

Flexible interiors:the car as a natural habitat

A car for the whole family:Take a minute to consider how much time you spend in your car – and what else you might do with that time. We consider it quite often. Here's our vision of quality time while on the move.

Volkswagen 2028 – „Room“ – When cars and homes converge

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Interview with experts – Mobility

Prof. John UrryMobility and Sociology ResearchUniversity of Lancaster

”In my study ’After the car‘ I look at a whole variety of innovationswhich would produce a different sort of personal vehicle system. Itwould be based on battery-fuelled cars, smaller cars, cars builtfrom lightweight materials, and a replacement of the concept of ownership by the concept of access.““Lots of the processes you have got listed here are exactly the ones I think could well produce what I call a de-mobilisation of the world.”

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“Now that we can do anything, what will we do?”

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“If I’d asked them what they wanted, they would have said – a faster horse.” Henry Ford

OUR responsibility is to think BEYOND