November 5th:

Why do people believe in questionable factual claims?

In other words, what makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

VOTE!

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

C. The nature of belief

A. Pseudo-archaeologists make skillful use of rhetoric

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

What we started on Wednesday and will finish today:

Are people dumb?

So, let’s find the logic behind why people believe bogus claims

Why do people believe in questionable factual claims?

NO

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

1 + 1 = 3logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

This book claims thatthere are a handful ofartifacts that look like they were made with

modern lathes.So…the true function of

the pyramids was to generateelectricity for all the lathes

But what about all the other artifacts?And where are the lathes and other machines?

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?1 + 1 = 3

logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

4. Selective presentation of data

potsherds

Everyone is selective

Good selective Bad selective

closeup of pottery showing inclusions

Were the pyramids built as a map of the stars?

Were the pyramids built as tombs for rulers?

OR

Khufu’s sarcophagus

Text inside the pyramid says “this is Khufu’s pyramid.”

KhufuKhafreMenkaure

Dozens of other tombs nearby

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?1 + 1 = 3

logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

5. False dichotomies: the idea that explanation is “either-or”

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

4. Selective presentation of data

There are some things that we stilldo not know about Tiwanaku, Bolivia.

But just because we do not know everythingabout Tiwanaku does not imply that a wild

alternative (that it is 17000 years old)must be correct.

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

6. They embrace incorrect theories and/or out-of-date information

1 + 1 = 3logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

4. Selective presentation of data

1st Example: Earth Crustal displacement Plato’s vision of Atlantis

5. False dichotomies: the idea that explanation is “either-or”

The correct theory of what generatesearthquakes?

Plate tectonics

2nd Example: hyperdiffusion

Coastal Peru

England

Mexico

Illinois

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

6. They embrace incorrect theories and/or out-of-date information

1 + 1 = 3logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

4. Selective presentation of data

1st Example: Earth Crustal displacement

5. False dichotomies: the idea that explanation is “either-or”

The correct theory of what generatesearthquakes?

Plate tectonics

2nd Example: hyperdiffusion

The correct understandings of similarities in different parts of the world?--Independent invention

--Historical particularism

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

6. They embrace incorrect theories and/or out-of-date information

1 + 1 = 3logical errors

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice

1. They presume that coincidences are intentional

3. They ignore the concept of representativeness

2. They jump to conclusions without enough facts

4. Selective presentation of data

In sum, this is bad logic, or, stated differently, bad thinking.

5. False dichotomies: the idea that explanation is “either-or”

But are pseudo-archaeologists dumb? NO

So why do pseudo-archeaologists do this?

$$$

But also: --nationalism --religious belief

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

How do we explain the riseof complex societies

in the Nile Valley?

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological ideas are more fun and care-free than the cold logic of science

I think the actual discoveries and painstaking results of scientific archaeologyare more exciting, and I hope I have been able to convince you of this.

Shipwreck of Kas, Turkey Minoan palaces

Internal ramphypothesis

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

Barry Fell,Harvard professormarine biologist

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

--It is hard to relinquish questionable beliefs. Why?

C. The nature of belief

1) Beliefs are sometimes tied up with personal relationships

2) Pride: hard to admit that you are wrong

3) Sometimes changing a single belief means changing an entire world view

4) Confirmation bias: we protect bad beliefs with bad logic

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

4. Many of our beliefs come from personal sources, prior to any scientific evaluation of such beliefs

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

Evolutionary psychologyType 2 error--a “false positive”: we see a pattern when there is in fact no pattern.

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

4. Many of our beliefs come from personal sources, prior to any scientific evaluation of such beliefs

5. We have been programmed to believe, and every now and then, we believe things that are false

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

Evolutionary psychologyType 2 error--a “false positive”: we see a pattern when there is in fact no pattern.

C. The nature of belief

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

4. Many of our beliefs come from personal sources, prior to any scientific evaluation of such beliefs

5. We have been programmed to believe, and every now and then, we believe things that are false

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

4. Many of our beliefs come from personal sources, prior to any scientific evaluation of such beliefs

Evolutionary psychology

Our brains have evolved in such a way that type 2 errors are tolerated.

Type 2 error--a “false positive”: we believe there is a pattern when there is in fact no pattern.

Learning requires credulousness: a willingness to believe even when we don’t yethave the ability to determine what is correct and what is false.

We may cling to unsupportable beliefs because they give us comfort

C. The nature of belief

5. We have been programmed to believe, and every now and then, we believe things that are false

There is more harm in being too skeptical, so we believe more than we doubt

Religions all over the world attribute disasters to specific people or spirits,when in fact scientific logic and probability can explain disasters

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

1. Pseudo-archaeologists offer simple explanations, which is attractive in a complex world

2. Pseudo-archaeological leaps of faith are more care-free than the cold logic of science

3. We trust authority often without being critical of authority

4. Many of our beliefs come from personal sources, prior to any scientific evaluation of such beliefs

5. We have been programmed to believe, and every now and then, we believe things that are false

C. The nature of belief

6. The values of social classes influence belief

7. Age?

What makes pseudo-archaeology appealing?

C. The nature of belief

A. Pseudo-archaeologists make skillful use of rhetoric

B. Pseudo-archaeologists commit logical errors that are difficult to notice