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WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
NATION PAYS BACK WHEN YOU PAY!
Advance Tax due Date - 15 Sept. 2017
2017: Issue 596, Week: 11th - 14th September
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(Saurabh Jain)
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lobal stock markets saw some selling in the start of the week gone by as investors
were nervous amid ongoing tensions on the North Korea front but gained some lost Gground after U.S. President Trump rapped up deal with Democrats in Congress to
extend the U.S. debt limit and provide government funding until Dec. 15. The European
Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary review policy kept interest rates unchanged and said
that the bank would continue with net asset purchases of 60 billion euro a month. ECB
President Mario Draghi added that the central bank will make a decision on its quantitative
easing program later this year and risks to the outlook remain balanced. Japanese
economic expansion came lower at an annualized pace of 2.5 percent for the quarter
ending June than the government's preliminary estimate in the second quarter, weighed
down by decline in private capital expenditure by companies. Still, Japan has maintained a
sixth consecutive quarter of growth, the longest run of economic expansion since 2006.
Back at home, the market ended the week on a flat note amid volatility and weak global
cues, as investors remained cautious due to geopolitical concerns, premium valuation,
lackluster earnings season and geopolitical headwinds. However, sustained capital infused
by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) supported the bulls to some extent. One the
domestic currency front, Indian rupee begin the week with negative note tracking weak
domestic equities and weaker than expected GDP data from global front. However, at the
end of the week, it closed in green as against the dollar taking cues from continuous
weakness in American currency against the major rivals. As per India Meteorological
Department (IMD), India has witnessed 5% below normal rains for the country as a whole till
5 September 2017. Markets are expected to remain volatile amidst geopolitical tensions. It
is expected that market participants will closely watch developments (if any) in North
Korea after recent hydrogen bomb test but on top of it, all eyes are on FOMC meeting
scheduled later this month. As long term outlook remains bright, investors are advised to
stick to fundamentally sound stocks on dips. Factors such as Macroeconomic data, progress
of monsoon rains, geopolitical developments between US and North Korea, trend in global
markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional
investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement
will dictate trend on the bourses in the week ahead.
On the commodity market front, it seems that confidence returned in the commodities
market with remarkable improvement in trade related activities in China amid positive
cues from major economies. The major indices of Commodities CRB again climbed above
185 on improved sentiments amid weakness in dollar index. New Yuan Loans, CPI of UK,
Unemployment Rate of Australia, Bank of England Rate Decision, BOE Asset Purchase
Target, CPI, Advance Retail Sales and U.S of Michigan Confidence of US etc are strong
triggers for the commodity markets this week.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
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NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy • India's private sector activity deteriorated for the second straight month in
August, as the Indian service sector was again impacted by the Goods and Services Tax, survey figures from IHS Markit showed .
Construction• Hindalco will invest in new capacities for automobile component offerings
from its Canadian subsidiary Novelis and expand manufacturing lines to grow its auto shipments to a quarter of the total production capacity. The company is considering expanding Novelis' auto lines in the US and China to tap rising demand for aluminium sheets used for automotive purposes.
Pharmaceutical • Biocon's insulin manufacturing facility in Malaysia has received a Good
Manufacturing Compliance certificate from Europe's drug regulator, giving its Malaysian subsidiary the green light to supply products manufactured at this plant to the European market. This comes as a positive development for the Bengaluru-headquartered biotech firm, which recently faced issues with the European authority regarding one of its manufacturing plants in India.
• Lupin announced the launch of its Olmesartan Medoxomil tablets, a hypertension drug, in the US market. The company has launched the tablets in strengths of 5 mg, 20 mg and 40 mg after having received an approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration.
• Ajanta Pharma has received final approval from the US health regulator for Entacapone tablets, used in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. It is a bioequivalent generic version of Comtan1 Tablets. Company will be launching the product shortly in 200mg strength tablets.
• Jubilant Life Sciences said its subsidiary Jubilant Pharma has completed the acquisition of the US radiopharmacy business of Triad Isotopes Inc.Triad operates the second largest radiopharmacy network in the US with more than 50 pharmacies.
• Cadila Healthcare group firm Zydus Cadila has received final approval from the USFDA to market Mycophenolate mofetil for injection used in organ transplants to prevent rejection.The approval is for Mycophenolate Mofetil injection of strength 500mg/vial. The drug is indicated for use in combination with other drugs -- cyclosporine and corticosteroids for prophylaxis of organ rejection in patients receiving kidney, liver or heart transplants.
• Cadila Healthcare said the US health regulator has issued no observations after completion of inspection of its Moraiya plant in Gujarat.
Automobile • MRF Limited has recently released the Perfinza range of luxury and
premium tyres, making this the first tyre made by any Indian company to be approved by a leading global luxury car manufacturer.
Oil & Gas• Petronet LNG will build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in Sri
Lanka in collaboration with Japanese and Lankan companies. Construction• Punj Lloyd JV has won a Rs 1,177-crore project in Myanmar from the
National Highways Authority of India. The NHAI has awarded its first international project in Myanmar. A joint venture between Punj Llyod and Varaha Infrastructure Ltd has won the bid to construct the Yagyi- Kalewa road section in Myanmar at a cost of Rs 1,177 crore.
FMCG• Nestle is consolidating its product portfolio to focus on high-performing
brands. The Swiss company, which launched more than 40 products over two years, is reviewing categories across chocolates, confectionery, coffee and the dairy segment.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• U.S factory orders plunged by 3.3 percent in July after surging up by an
upwardly revised 3.2 percent in June. Economists had expected orders to tumble by 3.2 percent compared to the 3.0 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.
• U.S trade deficit widened to $43.7 billion in July from a revised $43.5 billion in June. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $44.6 billion from the $43.6 billion originally reported for the previous month.
• U.S initial jobless claims jumped to 298,000, an increase of 62,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 236,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 241,000.With the much bigger than expected increase, jobless claims reached their highest level since a matching figure in April of 2015.
• U.S labor productivity climbed by 1.5 percent in the second quarter compared to the previously reported 0.9 percent increase. Economists had expected the pace of productivity growth to be upwardly revised to 1.3 percent.
• The euro area economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the second quarter, latest data from Eurostat showed. Gross domestic product grew 0.6 percent sequentially in the second quarter, faster than the 0.5 percent expansion seen in the first quarter. The rate came in line with the estimates.
• The European Central Bank left its key interest rates and massive stimulus unchanged, in line with economists' expectations.
• Japan's gross domestic product was knocked down to 0.6 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2017.That missed forecasts for 0.7 percent.
• Caixin China composite output index rose to 52.4 in August from 51.9 in July, survey data from IHS Markit showed. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Ex-Date Company Purpose
11-Sep-17 Engineers India Dividend - 0.50 Per Share11-Sep-17 Power Grid Corp. of India Dividend - Rs 3.35 Per Share13-Sep-17 PTC India Dividend - Rs 3/- Per Share13-Sep-17 NHPC Dividend - Re 0.10 Per Share13-Sep-17 Rashtriya Chemicals
and Fertilizers Dividend - Rs 1.10 Per Share13-Sep-17 Himadri Speciality Chemical Dividend - Re 0.10 Per Share13-Sep-17 Cox & Kings Dividend - Rs 1 Per Share14-Sep-17 JBF Industries Dividend - Re 1/- Per Share14-Sep-17 Delta Corp Dividend - Re 0.35 Per Share14-Sep-17 Wipro Buyback14-Sep-17 WABCO India Dividend - Rs 7/- Per Share14-Sep-17 Welspun Enterprises Dividend- Re 0.75 Per Share14-Sep-17 United Breweries Dividend - Rs 1.15 Per Share14-Sep-17 Rural Electrification Corp. Dividend - Rs 2.65 Per Share14-Sep-17 Oil India Dividend - Rs 4.75 Per Share14-Sep-17 Jain Irrigation Systems Dividend - Re 0.75 Per Share14-Sep-17 Reliance Infrastructure Dividend - Rs 9/- Per Share14-Sep-17 HT Media Dividend - Re 0.40 Per Share14-Sep-17 Housing & Urban
Development Corporation Dividend - Re 0.0515-Sep-17 Mangalore Chemicals
& Fertilizers Dividend- Re 0.5 Per Share15-Sep-17 Divi's Laboratories Dividend - Rs 10/- Per Share18-Sep-17 Sun Pharmaceutical Ind. Dividend - Rs 3.50 Per Share18-Sep-17 Indraprastha Gas Dividend - Rs 5 Per Share
Meeting Date Company Purpose
11-Sep-17 Cochin Shipyard Results12-Sep-17 Orient Refractories Results/Others13-Sep-17 Minda Corporation Results13-Sep-17 Suprajit Engineering Results/Others13-Sep-17 Hindustan Motors Results
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 31688 UP 18.11.16 25627 30400 29750
NIFTY50 9935 UP 27.01.17 8641 9400 9200
NIFTY IT 10457 UP 21.07.17 10712 10300 10100
NIFTY BANK 24371 UP 27.01.17 19708 22700 22400
ACC 1791 UP 27.01.17 1431 1700 1660
BHARTIAIRTEL 404 UP 03.02.17 354 400 390
BPCL 513 UP 21.07.17 467 490 480
CIPLA 552 UP 09.06.17 551 540 530
SBIN* 272 08.09.17 272 - 285 300
HINDALCO 250 UP 27.01.17 191 215 205
ICICI BANK 292 UP 21.10.16 277 280 275
INFOSYS 884 DOWN 13.04.17 931 970 980
ITC 272 DOWN 21.07.17 289 300 310
L&T 1172 UP 13.01.17 959 1130 1110
MARUTI 7971 UP 06.01.17 5616 7200 7100
NTPC 168 UP 04.08.17 177 165 160
ONGC 162 DOWN 31.03.17 185 170 175
RELIANCE 818 UP 23.06.17 718 750 730
TATASTEEL 655 UP 19.05.17 490 590 570
S/l
DOWN
4
Closing as on 08-09-2017*SBIN has broken the support of 285* Reliance Adjusted Bounce 1:1
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
907.57
-745.45-846.53
-226.36
-1288.14
-130.92
384.93197.52
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
6.15
1.77 1.63 1.62 1.27
-5.92 -5.92
-4.67
-3.02 -2.70
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Coal India Reliance Inds.
O N G C Bajaj Auto Maruti Suzuki
Bharti Airtel Tata Motors-DVR
ITC Tata Motors Cipla
7.68
6.14
3.76 3.432.92
-5.98 -5.72
-4.65
-3.59 -3.43
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Indiabulls Hous.
Coal India Vedanta Eicher Motors UltraTech Cem.
Bharti Airtel Tata Motors-DVR
ITC I O C L Tata Power Co.
-0.45
-0.72
0.02
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
-0.52 -0.49
-1.69
-1.00 -1.03
-0.42-0.22
0.24
2.15
3.14
1.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
-0.58
-0.92
-0.46
-1.50
-0.09
-1.54
-0.05
-0.56
-0.17
-1.80
-1.60
-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times* Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
0.87
1.29
0.87
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
Investment Rationale
•
Valuation
?Financially sound and its debt to equity ratio is comparatively lower than the industry. Moreover, Techno Electric & Engineering Company provides its strong niche in substation EPC works and ability services to all the three segments within the to compete with large MNCs has helped the power sector industry — generation, transmission company win contracts and deliver on and distribution. Apart from the power sector, it profitability and growth.also caters to the needs of steel, fertiliser, metals
and petrochemicals sectors.
?In FY17, the company's revenues grew by 23% to The management of the company is confident of the `1,356 crore in FY17. In the last quarter alone, company's potential to expand the EPC segment on the company booked orders worth `500 crore. the back of capex revival, led by PGCIL and SEBs, with With a healthy order book position of `2,600 strong visibility of traction in order book and healthy crore, the company is poised to sustain its growth revenue due to healthy trade receivables. In FY18, the momentum in the next couple of years. management has said that it would focus on closure of
projects, which it believes will prune retention money ?At present, Power Grid Corporation of India and improve working capital cycle. Thus, it is expected (PGCIL) is its largest client in the Transmission & that the company would see good growth going forward Distribution (T&D) space. Power Grid plans to and the stock will see a price target of `461 in 8 to 10 spend Rs 150,000 crore over the next five years, months time frame on a one year average P/E of 22.34x which will only means more orders for the and FY18 (E) earnings of ̀ 20.63.company. With the long-term experience of
working with Power Grid and State Electricity Boards (SEBs), Techno Electric cherry-picks projects with better profitability.
?It works with PSUs who have good discipline and take up mostly the projects which are multilaterally or bilaterally funded. The funding from agencies like World Bank, Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) or Power Finance Corporation (PFC) reduces risk of payment delays for Techno Electric. The company has an average receivable period of 70 days — one of the lowest in the industry.
P/E Chart
Face Value (`) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 438.95/261.60
M.Cap (`Cr.) 4020.51
EPS (`) 18.92
P/E Ratio (times) 18.86
P/B Ratio (times) 3.63
Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 1,339.10 1,536.20 1,815.90Ebitda 312.50 352.90 395.70Ebit 261.70 305.80 366.60Pre-Tax Profit 272.80 288.70 343.00Net Income 192.40 227.70 267.40EPS 16.88 20.63 24.47BVPS 96.95 112.40 132.09ROE 18.10 19.20 19.40
H T MEDIA LIMITED CMP: 100.45 Upside:27%Target Price: 127.00
Investment Rationale ?On other development front, recently it has ?HT Media is engaged in printing and publishing of announced demerger of the entertainment and
newspapers. The company's segments include digital innovation business of the company into a printing & publishing; radio broadcast & wholly-owned subsidiary and it's a scheme of entertainment, and digital. arrangement between HTML and HT Digital
Ventures (HTDVL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the ?It runs a Hindi daily, Hindustan, which enjoys company. According to the management, it would leadership positions in the markets of Bihar, capitalize on growth opportunities and support Jharkhand, Delhi, etc and also runs the second entertainment and digital innovation business.largest English daily Hindustan Times. It has
shown good growth in Hindi advertisement growth Valuationon quarterly basis and the management prospects The company grew faster than the industry in terms is positive towards good growth in hindi of both revenue and profit. The company regained advertisement revenue. revenue growth in Print business with heightened
?The Company has 15 operational FM radio focus on yield-led growth and tight control on costs to stations. It also operates a job portal in the improve profitability. Also the company continues to internet space, called www.Shine.com. This is in drive revenue from its newly launched Radio stations. addition to the existing websites livemint.com, Along with all these factors, with improved Digital hindustantimes.com and desimartini.com. HT footprint by executing on digital strategy, the Media also publishes two Hindi magazines Nandan company is expected to see good growth going and Kadambini through its subsidiary Hindustan forward. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a Media Ventures Limited. price target of 127 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a
target P/E of 15x and FY18 EPS of 8.49.?The digital businesses have also shown good growth. Revenues from Digital segment crossed 40 crore, up 10%. This growth was due to growth in Shine.com and Digital Content which witnessed healthy revenue growth of around 8% & 45% respectively.
?The company has a sound Balance Sheet with ample reserves and having almost no burden related to debt so shareholders of the company will get good benefit in long run future.
?Radio business revenues grew 30% due to growth of new radio stations. Radio EBITDA jumped 107% to Rs 11.4 crore. It had a higher margin of 26%. Newly launched Radio stations will continue to drive revenue and profitability. Phase three new radio station gave 12 crore sales which were profitable sales.
``
`
`
Face Value (`) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 104.05/69.50
M.Cap ( Cr.) 2337.96
EPS ( ) 8.14
P/E Ratio (times) 12.34
P/B Ratio (times) 1.05
Dividend Yield (%) 0.39
Stock Exchange BSE
`
`
% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 2452.10 2557.00 2741.50Ebitda 298.30 361.00 394.10Ebit 173.50 281.60 328.20Pre-tax Profit 307.90 381.70 443.20Net Income 170.30 197.00 227.60EPS 7.31 8.49 9.69BVPS 95.89 105.04 114.85ROE 8.00 8.20 8.50
VALUE PARAMETERS
5.02
17.84
12.52
58.75
5.88 Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
TECHNO ELECTRIC & ENGINEERING LIMITED CMP: 356.80 Upside:29%Target Price: 461.00
8.3710.22
03.99
69.51
7.92
Foreign
Institutions
Government
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at `769.95 on 08th September 2017. It made a 52-week low at
465 on 22nd November 2016 and a 52-week high of 814 on 10th May 2017. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 680.
The stock has been trading in rising channel on weekly charts and maintaining its
uptrend. Moreover, it has made a “Symmetrical Triangle” formation in Bull Run,
which is traded as continuation pattern and this week closing suggests that there
is more upside possibility in prices moving forward. Therefore, one can buy the
stock in the range of 760-770 levels for the upside target of 850-860 levels with
SL below 710.
` `
`
Capital First Limited (CAPF)
The stock closed at 219.65 on 08th September 2017. It made a 52-week low at
168.45 on 15th November 2016 and a 52-week high of 250 on 11th May 2017.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 206.61
Stock has formed the “Bullish Flag” formation on weekly charts and given
breakout above the falling trend line. This formation is traded as continuation
pattern. The positive divergence in secondary indicators like RSI and stochastic
are also supporting the next up move in coming sessions. Therefore, one can buy
in the range of 215-220 levels for the upside target of 240-250 levels with SL
below 205.
`
` `
`
Exide Industries Limited (EXIDEIND)
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
Overall derivative data indicate long rollover and most of the Nifty Sep futures positions have been rolled with the average of 9850 futures. Derivative data
indicate bullish scenario to continue. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 9800 & 9850 spot levels. We may see short covering
in every dip. In the Sep option contracts, we are seeing options open interest building up in 10000 calls and 9800, 9700 puts, so the probable range for next week
could be 9800-10000 with positive bias. From the option data, we have been seeing shifting of range to the upper band. Market Undertone is likely to remain
bullish. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 11.23% while that for put options closed at 10.55%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 13.01% and
is expected to remain sideways. Overall market's cost-of-carry is up on the back of fresh long additions. Among Nifty Call options, the 10000-strike call has the
highest open interest of above 40 lakh shares. On put side, 9700-strike put has the highest open interest of over 50 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The
PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.13, which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front, 9850-9900 spot levels are strong support zone and current trend is
likely to continue towards 10100.
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
PVR (SEP FUTURE)
Buy: Around `1358
Target: `1420
Stop loss: `1327
DISHTV
BUY SEP 75. PUT 2.65SELL SEP 70. PUT 1.05
Lot size: 7000BEP: 73.40
Max. Profit: 23800.00 (3.40*7000)Max. Loss: 11200.00 (1.60*7000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
POWERGRID
BUY SEP 210. PUT 3.70SELL SEP 200. PUT 1.00
Lot size: 4000BEP: 207.30
Max. Profit: 29200.00 (7.30*4000)Max. Loss: 10800.00 (2.70*4000)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
BALKRISIND (SEP FUTURE)
Buy: Above `1655
Target: `1710
Stop loss: `1624
BULLISH STRATEGY
HDFCBANK
BUY SEP 1800. CALL 17.20SELL SEP 1840. CALL 6.65
Lot size: 500BEP: 1810.55
Max. Profit: 14725.00 (29.45*500)Max. Loss: 5275.00 (10.55*500)
LUPIN (SEP FUTURE)
Sell: Below `962
Target: `912
Stop loss: `992
BEARISH STRATEGY
Call Put
24
.43
8.3
4
4.8
6
3.4
0
5.1
6
14
.82
24
.95
47
.14
33
.47
31
.58
24
.43
6.9
7
24
.70
34
.40
38
.71
50
.41
48
.35
46
.32
21
.32
8.4
6
7.6
3 11
.05
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
8000 9000 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10500
Call Put
-0.2
7
-0.0
4
-0
.78
0.0
3
-0.3
6
1.6
1
9.4
0
12
.07
7.6
0 8.5
1
4.4
1
-0.0
3
5.0
6
0.1
4
8.4
2
10
.13
11
.14
11
.00
-0.0
5
-0
.67
-1
.14
-0.2
0
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
8000 9000 9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10500
Call Put
4.8
0
1.1
3
3.9
4
2.8
7
50
.00
2.4
5
3.8
6
94
.36
58
.37
21
.00
7.4
9
6.5
4 12
.61
35
.35
56
.39
84
.79
5.4
6
3.5
1
28
.50
83
.49
2.7
0
0.7
4
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
22000 22500 23000 23500 24000 24200 24400 24500 25000 25500 26000
Call Put
0.0
2
-0.0
1
-0.1
0
0.2
8
10
.86
1.7
6
2.7
1
25
.89
-9.9
2
-0.2
7
0.7
0
1.5
0
3.6
1
12
.38
18
.96
21
.34
2.2
1
2.1
1
2.2
8
0.0
6
-0.0
5
0.0
0
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
22000 22500 23000 23500 24000 24200 24400 24500 25000 25500 26000
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
07-Sep 06-Sep 05-Sep 04-Sep 01-Sep
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 24.80 19.15 19.40 14.80 32.90
COST OF CARRY% 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.66
PCR(OI) 1.13 1.10 1.12 1.05 1.17
PCR(VOL) 1.26 1.04 1.11 1.27 1.07
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 1.68 0.50 2.19 0.24 3.25
A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCK)* 1.20 0.76 3.57 0.24 3.44
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 11.23 11.79 11.39 11.80 10.07
VIX 13.01 13.12 12.89 13.17 13.17
HISTORY. VOL 12.02 12.36 12.62 12.84 12.67
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Bottom 10 RolloverTop 10 Rollover
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
VGUARD 201.90 8.20% 2844000 70.20%
RAMCOCEM 731.15 5.26% 648800 38.40%
MUTHOOTFIN 493.20 2.95% 2646000 38.24%
BAJAJFINSV 5645.20 2.09% 587125 35.79%
REPCOHOME 682.15 5.64% 870100 31.53%
PCJEWELLER 360.70 1.99% 8625000 25.49%
CHOLAFIN 1168.50 1.02% 427500 23.91%
L&TFH 207.20 3.76% 19503000 23.16%
OFSS 3550.90 1.95% 66450 21.70%
BERGEPAINT 260.10 3.38% 2391400 21.59%
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
UBL 786.65 -2.34% 938000 28.72%
PNB 139.65 -3.89% 26792500 27.24%
IDEA 81.05 -9.24% 56854000 23.02%
ITC 271.65 -4.55% 43420800 20.17%
ACC 1795.60 -1.64% 1448000 18.07%
NIITTECH 495.15 -1.77% 1353000 16.99%
INDIANB 280.25 -4.32% 4842000 16.56%
JUSTDIAL 388.80 -3.19% 4909200 14.63%
RECLTD 161.35 -3.87% 36888000 14.49%
TATAMTRDVR 212.60 -5.93% 24318000 14.19%
In Cr. In Cr.
07-Sep 06-Sep 05-Sep 04-Sep 01-Sep
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 49.35 27.60 59.80 52.80 49.45
COST OF CARRY% 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.66
PCR(OI) 1.22 1.33 1.22 1.23 1.14
PCR(VOL) 0.81 1.29 0.93 1.11 0.95
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 1.00 0.33 11.00 0.09 11.00
#A/D RATIO 1.44 0.22 21.00 0.05 10.00
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 12.57 13.44 13.31 13.99 12.36
VIX 13.01 13.12 12.89 13.17 13.17
HISTORY. VOL 13.10 13.50 13.89 14.21 14.13
- 11
28
- 53
6
24
1
76
5
11
85
29
4
- 47
0
80
- 76
3
- 10
7
-1500
-1000
- 500
0
500
1000
1500
24-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep
24
04 2
88
0
- 91
9
11
20
23
86
23
19
78
2
12
80
10
97
11
62
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
24-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep
10
SPICES
Soybean futures (Oct) is looking bearish & will possibly descend towards 2970 levels. Arrivals of the new crop of soybean started last week in key markets of Madhya Pradesh. In 15-20 days, arrivals will begin in full swing and daily arrivals in Indore are seen at 10,000-15,000 bags. The quality of seed is satisfactory but size of the seed is small & the moisture content in the new crop is 20-25% while the ideal level is 10-12%. The condition of the standing crop is improving because of the recent rains. Mustard futures (Oct) may come down further & test 3800 levels as supply is expected to take over demand. At present, the stocks of mustard seed are ample with farmers and traders. According to data compiled from Mustard Oil Producers Association the country has crushed 35 lakh tonnes as on July 31 from total availability of 67 lakh tonnes, including carryover stock of 2.5 lakh tonnes, which means that around 32 lakh tonnes of mustard seed is available for crushing until new crop hit the market in mid-February. The weak trend in soybean prices may get reflected in refined soy oil prices, which may add bearish sentiments to the counter. In the days to come, Soy oil futures (Oct) is likely to trade with a downside bias & face resistance near 675 levels. CPO futures (Sept) may consolidate in the range of 520-538 levels & the upside may remain capped. The market participants may trade cautious & keep away from fresh buying ahead of the data to be published by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board & U.S Department of Agriculture.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) may witness a consolidation in a broader range of 860-915 levels. The sentiments of the market participants are pessimistic as the demand is lethargic, because no buyers are getting interested to procure cotton bales at such high rates and also sluggish offtake in the yarn market is curbing the buying enthusiasm. The trade activity is subdued as most spinners have adopted wait and watch approach in anticipation for further rise in new crop supply with lower moisture content which would further weigh on spot prices. The fundamentals of cotton, which is news of the hour is that the International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global cotton output in 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) to 25.1 million tons from 24.9 million tons estimated in August because of higher acreage. Mentha oil futures (Sept) is likely to consolidate in the range of 1180-1240 levels. At the spot market, the buyers are hesitant in bulk buying, whereas sellers are not willing to liquidate their produce at the current prevailing rates. The overall estimates highlight that there is tight supply-demand equation for 2017-18 season, as the total availability of Mentha oil for 2017-18 season totaled at 35,000-37,000 tons against estimated demand of 40,000 tons. After a sharp correction since past two weeks, guar seed futures (Oct) may take support near 3675 levels & witness some recovery from lower levels. In days to come, good demand is expected to emerge as buyers are betting that dry weather in Guar producing belts. Secondly, Guarseed ending stocks could fall to 0.80-1 crore bags against 1.50-1.75 crore bags a year ago.
Bullion counter can trade on upside path as weaker greenback and
geopolitical concerns between US and North Korea can continue to give
support to the prices. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 63.30-
64.10. Gold can face resistance near $1390 in COMEX and 31200 in MCX while it
has support near $1310 in COMEX and `28900 in MCX. Silver has key support
near 39500 in MCX and $17.00 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 43000 in
MCX and $18.80 in COMEX. The ECB lowered some of its inflation projections
to reflect a firming euro but lifted some growth forecasts after the euro zone
economy registered its best growth run in a decade. US President Donald
Trump stated that he would prefer not to use military action against North
Korea to counter its nuclear and missile threat but that if he did it would be a
"very sad day" for the leadership in Pyongyang. Mario Draghi hinted that
details about unwinding the balance sheet may be out by the next meeting in
October. The dollar index has also been under pressure as markets priced in
the economic impact of the two hurricanes that have hit the US in the recent
days. Fiscal concerns in the US also remain in focus until the debt ceiling issue
remains unresolved.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may continue to trade on a volatile path as it can move in the
range of 2900-3300 in MCX. Last week slightly bigger than expected U.S.
crude inventory build was seen as the restart of U.S. refiners after Hurricane
Harvey was being countered by the threat of Hurricane Irma. Reflecting the
impact of Harvey which hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 25, the EIA stated that U.S.
oil refinery utilization rates slumped 16.9 percentage points to 79.7 percent
last week, the lowest rate since 2010. Oil prices got some support as oil
exports by OPEC were 25.19 million bpd in August, their lowest level since
April. Oil production at Libya's Sharara field resumed last week after a valve
was reopened on a pipeline shut by an armed group for more than two weeks.
Sharara had been producing up to about 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) until it
was forced to shut on Aug. 19. Natural gas may trade sideways as it can move
in the range of 180-200 in MCX. With summer coming to an end and fall
beginning in about 17 days, traders are preparing for a drop in demand. This
is because temperatures are not likely to be too hot or too cold. Prices tend
to drop during this period because of low demand. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas
storage in the U.S. rose by 65 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 1,
just above forecasts for a build of 64 billion.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Base metals may continue to trade on a positive note amid supply concerns.
China's August exports rose by 5.5% from year earlier, roughly in-line with
expectations, while imports beat forecasts, growing 13.3%, with trade surplus
of $41.99 billion for month. China's economy continues to defy expectations
for a slowdown, buoyed by strong global demand for its exports and a resilient
property market despite a government pledge to crack down on rising risks.
Copper may trade in the range of 420-462 in MCX. China's imports of refined
copper rose nearly 13 per cent to more than 283,000 tonnes in July, but the
year-to-date total is down more than 21 per cent to about 1.83 million tonnes.
Also supporting prices are falling stocks of copper in LME-approved
warehouses. At 210,725 tonnes, copper inventories are down more than 40
per cent since early May. Lead can trade in the range of 141-156. The Chinese
mainland market for lead is tightening, which can be seen in a rising front-
month Shanghai lead contract against the three-month contract. China has
been shutting lead smelters as part of environmental inspections. Zinc can
move in the range of 191-205. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 127-
137 in MCX. China exported 410,000 tons of unwrought aluminium and
aluminium products, in August, down from July's 440,000 tons. Global aluminum
producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of as low as $100 per tonne
for primary metal shipments during the October to December period.
Turmeric futures (Oct) may face resistance near 7920-8000 levels & the upside may remain capped as profit booking is expected at higher levels. Further the market trend will also depend on sowing progress. Turmeric sowing report as per Andhra Pradesh Agriculture Department as on August 30 stood at 0.14 lakh hectares higher as compared to 0.11 lakh hectares same period last year. On the flip side, area in Telangana as on September 06, 2017 reported lower at 0.45 lakh hectares as compared to 0.46 lakh hectares same period a year ago, as per Telangana Agriculture Department. Jeera futures (Oct) may trade with an upside bias in the range of 18700-19800 levels. The market participants are optimistic about the price trend as there is very little stock left. It is reported that there are around 12-13 lakh bags (55Kg) against monthly domestic consumption around 3-4 lakh bags & this is also likely to exhaust before new crop start from February-March 2017. Coriander futures (Oct) will probably trade with a downside bias in the range of 4800-5200 levels. The business activities on the spot markets are not very encouraging due to uncertain coriander outlook amid ample stock is available in the domestic market followed by cheaper availability from international market. The good quality coriander is being imported at around $473 per tonne, CNF and the medium-grade spice at $400 and after duty of 36%, the good quality Coriander in Indian currency available at Rs 4,129/100kg, while medium-grade at Rs 3,492, which is much lower than domestic prevailing rates of around Rs 5,800-6,000.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at `41617 on 07th Sep'17. The contract made its high of
41844 on 06th June'17 and a low of 36141 on 10th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 40575.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65. One can buy in the
range of 41550 – 41350 with the stop loss of 41200 for a target of 42500.
` `
`
` ` `
RMSEED NCDEX (OCTOBER) contract closed at 3852 on 07th Sep'17. The contract made its high of
3925 on 28th Aug'17 and a low of 3622 on 22nd June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 3837.2.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57. One can buy in the
range of 3800 - 3750 with the stop loss of 3700 for a target of 3990.
`
` `
`
` ` `
COPPER MCX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 446.05 on 07th Sep'17. The contract made its high of
451.35 on 05th Sep'17 and a low of 369.05 on 06th June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 435.99.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 73. One can buy in the
range of 440 – 437 with the stop loss of 430 for a target of 450.
`
` `
`
` ` `
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER)
RMSEED NCDEX (OCTOBER)
COPPER MCX (NOVEMBER)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN OCT 3083.00 30.08.17 Sideways
NCDEX JEERA OCT 19345.00 13.07.17 UP 19835.00 19200.00 - 19000.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL OCT 669.20 23.08.17 UP 660.85 645.00 - 640.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS OCT 3852.00 06.07.17 UP 3665.00 3700.00 - 3650.00
NMCE PEPPER MINI OCT 47833.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 50000.00 52000.00
NMCE RUBBER OCT 13794.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL OCT 1220.60 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1130.00 - 1100.00
MCX CARDAMOM OCT 1190.30 27.07.17 UP 1152.50 1110.00 - 1090.00
MCX SILVER DEC 41617.00 10.08.17 UP 39213.00 39000.00 - 37000.00
MCX GOLD OCT 30282.00 10.08.17 UP 29176.00 29000.00 - 28500.00
MCX COPPER NOV 446.05 29.06.17 UP 388.25 425.00 - 420.00
MCX LEAD SEP 149.10 20.07.17 UP 141.25 146.00 - 143.00
MCX ZINC SEP 200.60 23.06.17 UP 174.50 193.00 190.00
MCX NICKEL SEP 778.70 27.07.17 UP 653.80 730.00 - 700.00
MCX ALUMINIUM SEP 134.45 10.08.17 UP 129.80 130.00 - 125.00
MCX CRUDE OIL SEP 3143.00 30.08.17 Down 2957.00 - 3200.00 3250.00
MCX NATURAL GAS SEP 191.40 01.06.17 Down 194.30 - 195.00 200.00
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 07.09.17
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
It seems that confidence returned in commodities market with remarkable improvement in
trade related activities in China amid positive cues from the major economies. The major
indices of Commodities CRB again climbed above 185 on improved sentiments amid weakness
in dollar index. Gold amazed investors with its magical upside as again it came in high demand
among money managers with tension escalated after many test fire by North Korea. In COMEX,
it has crossed the resistance level of $1350 whereas in India, it traded above the mark of
30400. Silver too followed the trend of gold. Markets were nervously eyeing developments in
North Korea, where the military conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test, which the
government said was of an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile. Hedge funds and
money managers raised their net long position in COMEX gold for the 7th straight week in the
week to Aug. 29. The speculators also increased their net long position in silver futures and
options, CFTC data showed. WTI crude recovered after a continuous fall of five week. Crude
prices rose as strong global refining margins and the reopening of US Gulf Coast refineries
provided a more bullish outlook after sharp drops due to Hurricane Harvey. But traders
remained wary of Hurricane Irma, ranked as one of the five most powerful Atlantic hurricanes
in the last 80 years. The magical rally took a break last week on healthy profit booking from
higher levels. Copper rose its highest in three years as investment flowed into industrial metals
amid surprisingly robust global factory growth, but couldn't stay at higher side. With its robust
demand, exchanges trying hard to woo the customers by slashing the transaction charges.
Shanghai Futures Exchange cuts nickel, tin transaction fees.
In agri commodities, trend was mix. In spices, cardamom, turmeric and pepper prices edged
up while jeera and dhaniya prices moved down on lackluster trade. Oil seeds and edible oil
counter was mostly bearish. US soyabean traded up for continuous four week but Indian
market completely ignored the trend and closed the week in negative territory for continuous
second week. Kapas and cotton traded firm in line with the international market. It was profit
booking time for guar counter and chana.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 07.09.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
CASTOR SEED MT 27456.00 31823.00 4367.00
CORIANDER NEW MT 21820.00 22617.00 797.00
COTTON SEED O.C MT 14657.00 10256.00 -4401.00
GUARGUM MT 14867.00 15362.00 495.00
GUARSEED MT 12460.00 14003.00 1543.00
JEERA NEW MT 1983.00 1967.00 -16.00
MAIZE MT 6179.00 6598.00 419.00
RM SEED MT 23655.00 20903.00 -2752.00
SOYBEAN MT 452.00 0.00 -452.00
TURMERIC MT 4654.00 4163.00 -491.00
WHEAT MT 9962.00 10700.00 738.00
30.08.17 COMMODITY UNIT 07.09.17 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 0.20 0.50 0.30
GOLD KGS 41.00 21.00 -20.00
GOLD MINI KGS 23.70 103.10 79.40
GOLD GUINEA KGS 13.44 11.44 -2.00
MENTHA OIL KGS 2146074.80 2009353.10 -136721.70
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 19787.01 33742.20 13955.20
30.08.17
•India's oil meal exports in August surged 94.2% on year to 139,568 tons. - Solvent Extractors' Association of India
•Oil mills across the country crushed 450,000 tons of mustard seed in August, down over 18% from the previous month. - Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.
•The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global cotton output in 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) to 25.1 million tons from 24.9 million tons estimated in August.
•Sugar mills across the country are likely to produce over 800,000 tons sugar in October. - Indian Sugar Mills Association
•The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate for India's output of soybean in 2017-18 to 10 million tons, down 13% from its earlier projection of 11.5 million tons in July.
•The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to a more than two-year high amid a surge in applications in hurricane-ravaged Texas.
•China's iron ore imports rose 1.1% in August from year earlier as soaring steel prices increased appetite for high-grade foreign ore.
•U.S. services sector activity accelerated in August amid strong gains in new orders and employment, suggesting that a slowdown in job growth last month was probably temporary.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
3.49%
3.17%
2.52% 2.49%
2.14%
-2.55%
-1.75%
-0.85%-0.62%
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
CRUDE OIL MINI NICKEL
SILVER1 000 CARDAMOM COTTON
LEAD MINI
NATURAL GAS
ALUMINIUM MINI
ZINC MINI
4.92%
2.62% 2.52%2.12% 2.11%
- 4.31%- 4.10%
- 3.13% - 3.03%- 2.67%
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
TURMERICCRUDE PALM
OILCOTTON 29 MM
DEGUMMED SOY OIL
GOLD HEDGE CORIANDER
GUAR SEED GUARGUM BARLEY
MAIZE (KHARIF)
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 31 07.09.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2113.50 2075.00 -1.82
COPPER LME CASH 6792.00 6842.50 0.74
LEAD LME CASH 2373.00 2307.50 -2.76
NICKEL LME CASH 11620.00 12035.00 3.57
ZINC LME CASH 3139.50 3095.50 -1.40
GOLD COMEX DEC 1322.20 1350.30 2.13
SILVER COMEX DEC 17.58 18.12 3.08
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX OCT 47.23 49.09 3.94
NATURAL GAS NYMEX OCT 3.04 2.98 -1.94
.08.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
30.08.17 07.09.17
ALUMINIUM 1324550 1324550 0
COPPER 233025 214775 -18250
NICKEL 388440 383370 -5070
LEAD 148700 164625 15925
ZINC 246150 243250 -2900
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 31.08.17 07.09.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 945.25 968.75 2.49
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 35.06 35.43 1.06
CPO* BMD NOV MYR per MT 2706.00 2782.00 2.81
Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 386.90 376.60 -2.66
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) Spices production estimate 2016-17
The Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare has released the third advance estimates of area and production of horticulture crops for 2016-17. The estimates are based on the information received from different state and union territories in the country. According to the agriculture ministry, area under different horticulture crops, which include fruits, vegetables and spices rose from 24.5 million hectares in 2015-16 to over 25 million hectares in 2016-17. Production of horticulture crops touched an all-time high of 300 million tonnes in 2016-17. It is 4.8% higher than the previous year's production of 286mt.
Spices production estimate
• Record production of spices is estimated to be around 8202000 tonnes, which is 17.4% higher than the previous year. In 2015-16, the total spices production was estimated 6988000 ton.
• The highest growth in terms of percentage is registered by spices.
• Production of chillies (dried) has jumped to 2126000 ton against 1520000 ton in the previous year. Similarly coriander and turmeric output has seen a major jump during 2016-17.
• Production of cardamom is estimated to be around 28000 tonnes, which is 16.67% higher than the previous year.
• Production of coriander is estimated to around 900000 tonnes, which is a jump of 53.85% than the previous year.
• The pepper production in the country is estimated to jump from 55000 tonnes to 72000 tonnes during 2016-17 which is 30.91% higher than the previous year.
• Turmeric production has also seen a rise of almost 20% from 943000 ton of 2015-17 to 1132000 ton during 2016-17.
• Only the production of cumin has dropped marginally. The production of cumin is estimated 489000 tonnes, which is 2.78% lower than 503000 ton of previous year.
-5.55
-5.26
-3.84
-2.73
-1.35
-0.97
-0.89
-0.82
-0.60
-0.52
-0.17
-0.15
0.09
0.85
2.02
2.38
-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
JEERA (UNJHA)
COTTON (KADI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
WHEAT (DELHI)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
* CPO (BMD) previous closing as on 30.08.17
Spice export from India
According to the Spice Board of India, spices exports have registered substantial growth during the last five years, registering a compound annual average growth rate of 10% in rupee terms and 5% dollar terms of value and India commands a formidable position in the World Spice Trade.
During 2016-17, a total of 9,47,790 tonnes of spices and spice products valued Rs.17664.61 crore (US$2633.30 Million) has been exported from the country as against 8,43,255 tonnes valued Rs.16238.23 crore (US$ 2482.83 Million) in 2015-16 registering an increase of 12% in volume, 9% in rupee terms and 6% in dollar terms of value..
As compared to the total export target of spices fixed for the period 2016-17, the total export of Spices has exceeded the target in terms of both volume and value. Compared to the target of 8,70,000 tonnes valued Rs.15725.12 crore (US$2419.25million) for the financial year 2016-17 the achievement is 109% in terms of volume and 112% in rupee and 109% dollar terms of value.
2015-16(Final) 2016-17(3rd estimate)
Spices Area Production Area Production
Chilli 811 1520 845 2126
Cardamom 86 24 85 28
Coriander 582 585 704 900
Jeera 808 503 781 489
Pepper 129 55 131 72
Turmeric 186 943 222 1132
Area in 000 ha and Production in 000 TonSource: Ministry of Agriculture
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 64.10 64.40 64.08 64.15
EUR/INR 76.26 76.93 76.26 76.89
GBP/INR 83.14 84.04 83.09 84.01
JPY/INR 58.74 59.30 58.68 58.94
News Flows of last week
05th Sep UK Service sector growth near 1-Year Low
06th Sep U.S. Trade deficit widens less than expected to $43.7 billion
07th Sep Euro zone q2 GDP expands as estimated
07th Sep U.S. Weekly jobless claims jump to two-year high
08th Sep Japan GDP bumped down to 0.6% in Q2
08th Sep China's exports growth slows in August
EUR/INR (SEP) contract closed at 76.89 on 07th September'17. The contract made its high of 76.93 on 07th September'17 and a low of 76.26 on 04th September'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 76.28.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.34.One can buy around 77.00 for a target of 78.00 with the stop loss of 76.50.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Indian rupee began the week with negative note tracking weak domestic
equities and weaker than expected GDP data from global front. However,
during later part of the week, all the losses witnessed were seen pared and
local unit managed to end the week in green as against the dollar taking cues
from continuous weakness in American currency against the major rivals. The
dollar has been declining against major currencies since April this year due to
a variety of factors including weakness in economic data and President Donald
Trump's failure to push through major tax and spending reforms. Moreover,
Asian currencies also remained firm and rose against the dollar as investors
saw the resignation of US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer as a sign
that it will be even more cautious about raising interest rates again.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (SEP) contract closed at 64.15 on 07th September'17. The contract made its high of 64.40 on 06th September'17 and a low of 64.08 on 04th September'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 64.16.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.28. One can sell below 63.95 for the target of 63.45 with the stop loss of 64.20.
GBP/INR (SEP) contract closed at 84.01 on 07th September'17. The contract made its high of 84.04 on 07th September'17 and a low of 83.09 on 05thSeptember'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 83.23.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.77. One can buy around 84.00 for a target of 85.15 with the stop loss of 83.40.
JPY/INR (SEP) contract closed at 58.94 on 07thSeptember'17. The contract made its high of 59.30 on 06thSeptember'17 and a low of 58.68 on 04thSeptember'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.61.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 58.04. One can buy around 59.20 for a target of 60.25 with the stop loss of 58.65.
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
12th Sept GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.6
13th Sept USD Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.1
14th Sept GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 435
14th Sept GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.25
14th Sept GBP Monetary Policy Summary
14th Sept GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 0
14th Sept GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 6
14th Sept GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 2
14th Sept GBP Bank of England Minutes
14th Sept USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.7
14th Sept USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.7
15th Sept USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
IPOIPO
MATRIMONY.COM LIMITED
IPOIPO
Issue Highlights
Issue Composition In shares
Valuation
SMC Ranking
Objects of the Issue
(2.5/5)
15
16
FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR
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FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
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INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE
MUTUAL FUND
NEW FUND OFFER
RBI Committee proposes single license for advisors offering different financial productsThe Reserve Bank of India committee, headed by Dr. Tarun Ramadorai, Professor of Financial Economics, Imperial College London, has proposed uniformity in guidelines for advisors across all financial products. The committee wants advisors to offer all the financial products such as insurance, mutual funds, National Pension Scheme, and Alternative Investment Funds with a single license. Currently, all the financial regulators have different rules and regulations for their intermediaries and advisors registered with them. The committee has recommended introduction of an independent body, which can be managed by all these regulators to form a unique guidelines for financial advisors.
Industry AUM data comes in at Rs. 20.59 lakh crore in Aug 2017According to data from AMFI, the corpus of the mutual fund industry increased from Rs. 19.97 lakh crore in Jul 2017 to Rs. 20.59 lakh crore in Aug 2017. Maximum inflow was seen in the liquid category funds to the extent of Rs. 21,352 crore followed by equity (including ELSS fund category) with an inflow of Rs. 20,362 crore in Aug 2017. The income category funds witnessed inflow of Rs. 8,390 crore in the month under review.
LIC Mutual Fund revises the exit load of LIC MF Children's FundLIC Mutual Fund has revised the exit load of LIC MF Children's Fund to nil with effect from Sep 6. Previous an exit load of 1% was charged if units are redeemed or switched out on or before completion of 1 year from the date of allotment of units.
SEBI planning to come out with definitions for all categories of mutual fund schemesThe Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is planning to come out with the uniform definitions for all categories of mutual fund schemes. The matter was taken up for discussion in a meeting held by SEBI's Mutual Fund Advisory Committee. Currently, the mutual fund industry has over 2,000 schemes. The presence of multiple funds in the category from the same fund house creates confusion among distributors and investors. The capital market regulator has been pushing fund houses to merge schemes to reduce confusion among investors.
SEBI wants MF industry to benchmark returns of its equity schemesThe Securities and Exchange Board of India would like the mutual fund industry to benchmark the returns of its equity schemes against a total return index. The step is expected to reduce the alpha generated by these schemes and enable investors to evaluate the returns more effectively.
Mutual Funds hiked exposure to banking, financial stocks in JulyBanking and financial services were the most favoured sectors for equity mutual funds in July, with both sectors seeing their share in equity fund AUMs inching steadily higher. Sebi data shows these two sectors accounted for 31.2 per cent of total equity asset under management at the end of July compared with 27.8 per cent in last July. Banking is already the top sector holding for most mutual funds given the share the sector has in the market. Funds had begun turning wary of banks in the previous months, opting instead for NBFCs. But the past six months has seen a sharp surge in share of AUM, moving from 20.9 per cent in January 2017 to 22.6 per cent in July 2017 (latest available data). The value of fund holdings in banking is up by a strong 42 per cent in July 2017 from January, and even more by 57 per cent from a year ago.
IDFC AMC introduces 'insta-redemption' facility in IDFC Cash Fund IDFC AMC is introducing 'insta-redemption' facility under the IDFC Cash Fund. This facility will enable investors to get redemption proceeds in their registered bank accounts instantly. The fund house provides the option of seamlessly updating the bank IFSC code for smooth completion of the insta-redemption process. A few clicks enable money transfer from the cash fund to the savings account, which can then be easily withdrawn. The transfers will be done using the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) provided by various banks and the entire process should take a few minutes. The facility will be available on all days and at all points of time through the online transaction mode.
AMFI directs R&T agents to take investor's consent on linking Aadhaar with their foliosIn the wake of the Supreme Court's order on Right to Privacy, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) has directed registrar and transfer (R&T) agents to obtain consent of investors to access their Aadhaar data from UIDAI platform. Presently, the mutual fund industry regulator is working on the guidance note and is likely to issue it to R&T agents shortly. Earlier, the government had directed registrar and transfer agents of mutual funds to link Aadhaar number of mutual fund investors with their folios. The mutual fund investors will have to update their Aadhaar number before Dec 31, 2017.
Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Value Fund - Series 17 - Regular Plan (G)
Fund Type Close-Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 29-Aug-2017
Closes on 12-Sep-2017
Investment Objective To provide capital appreciation by investing in a well-diversified portfolio of stocks through fundamental analysis.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager Ihab Dalwai / Sankaran Naren / Priyanka Khandelwal
Scheme Name Sundaram Long Term Micro Cap Tax Advantage Fund - Sr. - VI - Reg. (G)
Fund Type Close-Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 23-Jun-2017
Closes on 22-Sep-2017
Investment Objective To generate capital appreciation over a period of ten years by predominantly investing in equity and equity-related instruments
of companies that can be termed as micro-cap.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager S Krishnakumar / Dwijendra Srivastava
17
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 07/09/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 17.25 21-Jan-2015 466.89 7.28 24.38 32.34 N.A 23.03 1.89 0.80 0.24 63.30 35.98 N.A 0.72
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 15.42 28-Dec-2015 389.03 5.15 18.90 27.21 N.A 29.07 1.98 0.94 0.22 61.27 31.40 4.24 3.09
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 53.38 26-Dec-2008 600.93 6.51 21.58 24.35 16.13 21.22 1.89 0.84 0.09 48.55 33.63 14.51 3.30
L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 52.85 27-Feb-2006 2222.37 4.68 17.98 23.87 15.38 15.53 1.83 0.86 0.13 54.23 37.46 2.66 5.65
Tata India Tax Savings Fund - Reg - G 16.98 14-Oct-2014 667.45 7.67 20.23 21.13 N.A 20.08 1.94 0.88 0.14 51.15 37.98 6.16 4.71
Principal Tax Savings Fund 198.53 31-Mar-1996 327.64 4.48 18.43 20.97 14.64 17.17 2.20 1.05 0.14 49.63 38.01 4.66 7.70
HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund - G 36.29 05-Jan-2007 184.91 2.86 14.74 20.20 12.80 12.83 2.07 0.99 0.08 56.68 28.06 14.39 0.87
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
DSP BlackRock Natural Res. & New Ener. F - Reg - G 34.92 25-Apr-2008 219.03 14.87 16.47 43.87 23.46 14.27 2.36 0.91 0.49 79.12 10.10 0.84 9.94
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 25.09 12-May-2014 955.83 6.14 25.66 39.68 24.87 31.87 2.14 0.80 0.31 2.02 52.45 33.81 11.71
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 53.23 07-Mar-2008 1417.48 9.65 27.85 34.97 18.34 19.22 2.15 0.86 0.18 19.51 59.45 18.22 2.82
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 136.48 09-Aug-2004 901.44 6.59 22.24 33.46 23.55 22.10 1.97 0.75 0.22 25.94 54.41 10.02 9.63
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 39.46 16-Sep-2010 3753.78 5.89 21.13 32.81 21.91 21.73 2.37 0.89 0.25 3.30 39.56 48.61 8.53
Motilal Oswal MOSt Foc. Multicap 35 F - Reg - G 26.30 28-Apr-2014 6643.07 8.63 23.07 29.98 26.41 33.30 1.97 0.84 0.20 75.58 22.89 N.A 1.53
Tata Equity P/E Fund - Reg - Growth 133.66 29-Jun-2004 1188.64 7.37 18.72 27.72 18.93 21.70 2.02 0.89 0.23 53.97 34.83 4.63 6.57
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
DHFL Pramerica Dynamic Bond Fund - G 1649.29 12-Jan-2012 181.39 11.02 10.18 2.53 14.28 11.55 11.66 9.25 28.68 0.11 13.14 6.95
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - Growth 20.02 23-Jun-2010 1529.43 11.91 10.29 2.26 11.83 11.15 11.14 10.10 27.37 0.14 9.29 7.53
ICICI Prudential LTP - Prem - Growth 21.36 13-Jan-2010 2206.23 11.18 10.12 3.60 15.25 11.08 12.72 10.42 31.77 0.15 11.88 7.33
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond F - Prem Plus - G 20.57 14-Jan-2010 1322.69 12.83 11.03 5.68 14.92 10.57 12.56 9.89 23.65 0.20 7.27 7.48
UTI Bond Fund - Growth 52.12 04-May-1998 1843.24 12.71 10.51 2.09 11.92 10.35 11.07 8.90 27.80 0.11 9.79 7.50
SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 42.05 25-Nov-1998 1788.94 9.54 8.36 4.14 11.80 10.34 10.72 7.91 19.62 0.16 5.83 7.36
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opportunities F - Reg - G 13.06 23-Jan-2015 586.91 10.24 9.34 7.12 10.17 10.33 N.A 10.71 8.65 0.37 3.28 8.62
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Aditya Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond F - Ret - DAP 21.06 08-Apr-2009 13557.40 15.89 10.58 1.70 13.12 6.35 11.15 9.25 35.74 0.08 16.30 7.44
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.40 25-Mar-2009 10362.50 9.89 9.41 6.15 11.49 8.99 10.28 9.41 13.60 0.19 3.58 8.68
Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme - Reg - G 21.95 27-May-2008 1109.78 8.35 7.56 4.74 11.41 8.91 10.13 8.84 21.12 0.16 6.57 7.24
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.60 01-Jan-2010 7365.75 9.54 8.66 5.15 11.31 9.40 10.20 9.15 17.86 0.18 5.31 7.24
HDFC HIF - Dynamic - Growth 58.99 27-Apr-1997 2280.80 10.43 8.55 2.08 11.12 6.87 10.76 9.10 29.06 0.10 10.22 7.42
Aditya Birla Sun Life Tre. Optimizer Plan - DAP 201.19 22-Jun-2009 7220.16 10.32 9.18 6.06 10.64 8.14 10.28 8.88 18.05 0.15 3.73 7.16
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3544.75 31-Jan-2002 8139.39 11.54 10.30 8.73 10.64 10.41 9.69 8.44 13.05 0.13 2.22 10.04
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 53.12 08-Jun-2005 5955.74 6.37 14.34 17.66 13.40 14.60 1.49 0.09 57.45 10.27 1.60 30.68
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.42 07-Feb-2011 4428.18 2.84 13.12 17.01 14.63 15.22 1.36 0.07 47.98 19.55 3.33 29.13
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 13.12 29-Jul-2015 526.09 4.59 12.32 16.25 N.A 13.72 1.47 0.09 64.20 8.20 1.04 26.56
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 142.40 11-Sep-2000 11349.40 3.12 12.05 15.39 13.57 16.91 1.43 0.08 42.92 22.09 1.45 33.54
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 486.39 01-Feb-1994 23343.90 1.58 10.31 14.51 10.57 19.20 1.84 0.07 54.63 13.89 5.96 25.53
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 120.90 03-Nov-1999 11734.40 2.43 7.65 14.37 13.18 14.98 1.44 0.09 54.27 11.83 0.79 33.12
Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 - G 740.36 10-Feb-1995 8454.88 4.84 12.50 14.10 14.31 20.99 1.46 0.08 51.78 20.39 0.65 27.19
BALANCED
18
Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group & Senior Member - Managing Committee - Assocham) during 2nd Conference on ‘Women At Workplace’
organized by Assocham on 6th September 2017 at Hotel The Taj Mahal, New Delhi.
Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC investment and Advisors Limited & Chairman PHD Chamber of Commerce – Capital Markets) during
Annual Convention on Capital Markets organized by PHD Chamber on 2nd September at Hotel Le-Meridien, New Delhi.
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