wireless systems (ppt, 32 slides, 518 kb)
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Wireless systems roadmap www.isa.se 1
Wireless Systems Roadmap 2005-2010June 2005Bo Karlson, Östen Mäkitalo, Mats Nilsson, Jens Zander
Wireless systems roadmap www.isa.se 2
Contents
About the Study
The Wireless Environment
Background Trends Societal development Users and usage Wireless services Regulative
Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective Technology Industry Open questions
Potential Showstoppers
The Wireless World in 2015 and Beyond
Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry
Conclusions
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About the study
This study has been carried out by Wireless@KTH under commission from Invest in Sweden Agency (ISA) during April and May 2005
The focus is on “Wireless Systems”, including: Cellular systems WiMax and WLAN systems Ad hoc Wireless Networks Multi-network convergence terminals
Time horizon: 2005 - 2010
Parallel ISA-studies focus on roadmaps for mobile terminals and photonic systems
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The Wireless Environment
Services:Communication, My Car, Voice chat,Remote surgery, See What I See…
Networks
MSC
PSTN
IP
Research and Development areas:
Transparent, Multi Mode, Low Cost Infrastructure, Antennas…
USER
Wireless Technology
Demands: Quality, Coverage, Security, Cost…
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Radio Skog Mobil
YEAR
1985 1995 2005
3G - UMTS
Mobitex
NMT450
NMT900
GSM
3G - CDMA2000
MTD
W-LAN
”Wireless DSL”
TREND: Higher frequencies, higher bitrates and less coverage
Iridium
Wireless System Generations
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User bit rates in practice
User data bit rate Bandwidth for a service
Mobitex 1 kbit/sIridium 2.4 kbits/sNMT450 10 kbit/sGSM CSD 10 kbit/sGSM GPRS 40 kbit/sGSM EDGE 100 kbit/s3G Mobile 200 kbits/s3G Semi mobile 2 000 kbit/sRadio LAN 50 000 kbits/s
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Bit rates VS Coverage
Bit rate
Coverage/mobility
10K
100K
1M
10M
100M
Indoor Local Wide area Global
GSM
UMTS
Satellite
WLAN
BT
Equicost/EquipowerlineBroadcast
systemsHSDPA
?More received power
Super 3G
”4G”Radios
New radio technologies are no direct replacement for 2/3G systems Bit rate not limited by technology – but by deployment density
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Background trends – Societal development
Society will gradually move towards a more mobile environment for its citizens and workers
Environmental issues increase in importance
Globalization continues
Increased economic importance of large NIC-economies (China, India, and also Russia)
Continued shift towards “knowledge based economy”
Aging population in the western world
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Background trends – Users and usage
Increased user mobility
Bandwidth (bit rate) demands from users will increase
Differentiation of users into distinct groups with different demands will increase
Basic service quality parameters will increase in importance Service reliability (low rate of interruptions, errors etc.) Coverage Ease of use High enough data bit rate to and from the user Security, integrity, privacy
But in a novel way Different quality of service demands from different users Quality of service traded against low price Caching and storing of content change usage patterns
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Background trends – Wireless Services (1)
The demand for wireless services will increase, but not explode!
Continued prize drop on services due to Excess wireless capacity in the early part of the studied period Competition between operators and technologies User owned and operated networks complementing operator networks
to reduce cost
Increased focus on easy to use services Usage of new Man-Machine-Interfaces, e.g. voice control Content need to be developed for small screens,
at least during the first part of the studied period
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Background trends – Wireless Services (2)
Communication services will continue to dominate, at least during the first part of the studied period Voice Messaging (SMS, MMS, email etc.) High quality images ”See what I see”
New affordable everyday services for the mass market (applications and content) Wireless Wallet Finding information Scheduling and booking etc.
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Background trends – Wireless Services (3)
Increase usage of entertainment and media services
Fast increase in terminal memory will lead to new services based on caching content Extensive downloading now – Usage later
Growth of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) based services
Tailored and specialized applications for large customers and specific consumer segments will increase in importance
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Background trends – Regulative
Increased flexibility and response from authorities (licensing etc.) Increased technology independence and neutrality
f [MHz]
No
ma
dic
Rad
io L
AN
FW
A/M
ob
ile
FW
A
3G+
Rad
io L
AN
UM
TS
FD
D/T
DD
GS
M1800
Iridiu
m
GS
M900
CD
MA
2000N
MT
450
Mo
bitex
Rad
io S
kog
Mo
bil
100 1000 2000 3500 5500
More bandwidth for mobile services
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Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective
Speed of change will not be drastic over the period It takes several years to launch new wireless services to a
mass market Infrastructures change slowly
3G and the new wireless data networks in Sweden will maintain world class in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service (UMTS, EDGE, CDMA2000/450)
There will be fierce competition between 3G evolution and other networks (e.g. IEEE802.xx), especially during 2007–2010
Different starting points and development paths in different parts of the world
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Trends – Technology (1)
Increasingly complex and heterogeneous network environment
Many different types of networks, from simple to complex, operated by different types of operators
Many different access technologies - but several of those developed today will not survive
More “niche” wireless standards – no single “4G” radio standard
Gradual shift towards multi-standard “Ambient Networks”
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A multi-standards wireless future
Iridum CDMA2000/450 GSM/GPRS/EDGE UMTS FDD/TDD HSDPASuper 3G Zigbee Bluetooth WLAN WIMAXI-burst Flash OFDM Wibro Ripwave IEEE 802.xxUWB….
Wide-area (cellular)Hot spotsHot regionsSatellites…
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Voodoofone®
UMTS
BS&S®
Hotspot service
Sams
Home WLAN
Alice’s PAN
Sams PAN
T-stabil®
GSM
Wide Area Ambient Networks
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Trends - Technology (2)
Network standards and technology Fixed-Mobile-Wideband data convergence
e.g. the UMA standard, triple play New networks will be introduced
Alternative low cost infrastructures Providing wide-area coverage (e.g. digital 450 MHz and others) Providing local access (e.g. IEE802.XX)
Wireless DSL increases in importance as a complement to existing copper lines and as 3G complement
The ”All IP” vision develops further User bit rates improves gradually, in a staircase
without drastic steps Increased up link demands from users will lead to more symmetrical
bandwidth capability
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Trends – Technology (3)
Terminals More multimode terminals (in particular WLAN/Cellular) Megapixel cameras as well as high-resolution video cameras Large storage facilities in terminals (+Gigabytes) Improved screens and eventually “virtual screens”
Specific technology developments Network components and subsystems
Antenna technology in the form of multiple ports (MIMO), smart units, etc.
Man-Machine-Interfaces (MMI) e.g. Speech recognition and synthesis
Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) Solutions for Digital Rights Management (DRM)
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Trends – Industry (1)
Wireless will continue to be an important industrial sector for Sweden The wireless clusters, e.g. Kista/Stockholm, will grow further More foreign companies establish in these clusters
Two distinct markets evolve with different technologies and paradigms Wide-area (traditional cellular) Local access
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The Battleground
The Battleground
Wide area wireless Local access wireless
Seamless mobility High speeds Any-time anywhere Moderate data rates
”Cordless” access Stationary use High data rates
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Trends – Industry (2)
The Wide-area wireless industry Increased consolidation in the operator segment Continue to be heavily affected by political decisions
Licensing Regulation regarding e.g. competition Both national and EU regulation
Ericsson continues to be a very important engine
The Local access wireless industry Hotspot and “Hot Region” (non-cellular) technologies will take
significant part of revenue for personal communication in local business, home applications and as “wireless XDSL” (wide band in non-urban areas)
Unclear which and what type of actors in Sweden will address emerging local access needs
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Trends – Industry (3)
Thus, unclear how successful 3G will be Regulatory and spectrum issues Strong competition from other technologies in indoor/local access
Continued globalization leads to increased competition Outsourcing of both manufacturing and R&D to Asia and Eastern
Europe continues China, India, and later Russia will dominate as the most important
markets China, India, and Russia will become increasingly important as
industrial players as well South Korea and Japan will be strong markets for new wireless
services and applications
Defense and consumer technology merge
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Trends - Open questions
Multi-hop coverage extension: Using terminals as transfer nodes Single hop functionality already on the market and will spread further True multi-hop systems (using more than one terminal to transfer information)
will change the mobile communications market, but most likely not within 3-5 years
The role of satellite services Usage of space communications will probably expand but only slowly
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Most of these technologies offer mobile or semi mobile services although often
used as fixed The regulative trend is to allow mobility, not to limit access to fixed applications
Man Machine Interfaces (MMI) for terminals Advanced input units Screen development:
Very thin, flexible, low cost screens will change industry When will this type of equipment be available?
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Potential Showstoppers
Collapse in managing of increasingly complex networks as well as service and usage environment
Power consumption in terminal leads to short usage time (battery capacity increases slower than power consumption)
Biological effects of radiation Real effects Perceived effects by the public
Chaos around Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Difficulties guaranteeing security/integrity/privacy in networks and services
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The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (1)
Highly heterogeneous wireless environment with a multitude of technologies
Abundance of easily accessible, affordable, and reliable services and terminals for all uses
Context and location aware information and entertainment services dominate
Fierce competition and many business actors offering services and local access
Local access infrastructure deployed and maintained by janitors, electricians, and consumers
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The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (2)
Global wide area coverage (with location variant quality of service)
More spectrum for mobile/nomadic communications In lower bands for coverage (470-600 MHz) In higher bands for high bit rates and full mobility services (2.7-6.0 GHz) In even higher bands for bit rates over 100 Mbs for nomadic services (6-
70 GHz) Exact allocations visible by 2010
Wireless gradually becomes a ”disappearing technology”
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An example:The light bulb
The Wireless Vision: A Disappearing Technology
Penetration
Time
Exclusive
”Everyone” has it
Vanishing technology
In almost every home
Why isn’t there an outlet here?
In a few homes
1900 1950 2000
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Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (1)
The Swedish Wireless industry is growing again after the recession 2000–2003
World-class 3G and other wireless data networks in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service Mix of 3G, Hotspots, Wireless ADSL etc. supported by excellent fiber
and wire-line infrastructures Can be used for test bed and early market activities
Low cost for wireless access in the future, due to Excess capacity in the cellular networks in the first part of the period Increased competition between operators and technologies Excellent opportunities for service development and provisioning
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Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (2)
Nationwide availability of excellent engineering competence
Highly competent wireless clusters Strong links between industrial activities and academic research
Areas of particular strength, both in industry and academia Network architectures for a highly complex and heterogeneous future Radio technology Antenna subsystems Audio recognition and synthesis
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Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (3)
Home market for the leading infrastructure manufacturer for wide area wireless networks
An increase of new entrepreneurial companies in the wireless industry
An excellent ability to develop complex systems and components
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Conclusions
It is quite clear how wireless will develop during the next 3-5 years: Evolution not Revolution!
The Wireless industry and the business environment in Sweden are well equipped and will play a major role in the global development for years to come Strong clusters High technological competence Both world-leading manufacturers and small entrepreneurial
companies