wireless nomadicity (ftth 2014)
DESCRIPTION
"Is the Future of Wireless Wired? FTTX in Support of Nomadic Broadband Users", presented at the New World of Applications workshop at the FTTH Conference, Stockholm, February 2014TRANSCRIPT
COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Marc Jadoul (@mjadoul)
Stockholm, 18 February 2014
IS THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS WIRED? FTTX IN SUPPORT OF NOMADIC BROADBAND USERS
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The trend has
been that mobile
was winning.
It's now won.
Eric Schmidt Executive Chairman, Google
Source: http://mashable.com/2013/12/30/eric-schmidt-predictions-2014
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MOBILE TRAFFIC KEEPS GROWING,
WITH VIDEO PLAYING AN EVER MORE PROMINENT ROLE
Browsing
Music
Video
Games & Apps
Other
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012
5,326
PB
21,500
PB
Source: Strategy Analytics, Handset Data Traffic (2013)
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MASLOW’S HIERARCHY REDEFINED
PSYCHOLOGICAL food, water, shelter, warmth, …
SAFETY security, stability, safety
BELONGINGNESS & LOVE intimate relationships, friends
SELF-ESTEEM prestige & feeling of accomplishment
SELF- ACTUALIZATION
achieving one’s full potential & creativity
Source: http://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
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NEW USAGE PATTERNS CHALLENGE MOBILE NETWORKS
63% OF USERS SAY
IT’S IMPORTANT
TO BE CONNECTED
AT ALL TIMES
62% OF USERS SAY
MOBILE DATA
SPEEDS ARE
VERY IMPORTANT
58% OF USERS SAY ALWAYS-ON
CONNECTIVITY IS
IMPORTANT FOR THEIR
SOCIAL LIVES
26% OF 4G USERS CHECK
SOCIAL MEDIA MORE
THAN 10X A DAY
25% OF 4G USERS SPEND 3 OR
MORE HOURS A DAY ON
THE INTERNET EVERY DAY
26% OF 4G USERS
DOWNLOAD, UPLOAD,
AND STREAM VIDEOS
Sources: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey (2012), 4GEE Mobile Living Index & Orange Exposure (2013)
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DEMAND FOR (DENSE) WIRELESS ACCESS
IN PUBLIC PLACES IS RISING
Sports stadium
Train/bus station
Airport
Office
Hospital
Shopping mall
Convention center
High street
School
Hotel
Supermarket
Retail shop
Multi Dweller Units
House
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Average Mb/s per 10m2
Source: Ruckus Wireless (2012)
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EVEN WITHIN THE HOME,
MOBILE MULTIMEDIA IS BECOMING PERVASIVE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Outdoor mobile data usage Indoor mobile data usage
70%
80%
90%
100%
iPad iPhone Blackberry
% OF USE INDOORS
Source: Mobile Experts (2012), GigaOM (2012)
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SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS
TEND TO PLAY DIFFERENT ROLES
67% 65%
53%
31%
74%
68%
51%
49% 75%
74%
65%
60%
58%
34%
22%
20%
Living room
Bedroom
Kitchen
Home office
While traveling
Car
Public trarnsport
Daily commute
Restaurant
Friend’s house
Outdoors
Work
Other
Library
School
In stores
Where do you access
the internet on your
SMARTPHONE ?
72% 63%
40%
26%
48%
18%
15%
9%
30%
28%
26%
20%
14%
12%
10%
8%
Living room
Bedroom
Kitchen
Home office
While traveling
Car
Public transport Daily
commute
Restaurant
Friend’s house
In stores
Where do you access
the internet on your
TABLET?
Outdoors
Work
Other
Library
School
Source: Forrester Research (2013)
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NEED FOR DIFFERENT ‘MIXES’ OF
MOBILITY, CAPACITY AND COVERAGE
Macro coverage Small cells & Wi-Fi
Mainly low bandwidth services
Often high bandwidth services
Full mobility Nomadic usage
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NOMADIC VIDEO IS SOARING WITH A 73% CAGR
200,000
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
0
180,000
140,000
100,000
60,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Home video users (premium content)
Nomadic video users (premium content)
Mobile video users (premium content)
Source: The NPD Group (US, 2011)
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NOMADIC BROADBAND ROLLOUT OPPORTUNITIES
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DEFINING THE IDEAL NETWORK FOR WIRELESS NOMADS
a wireless HetNet mixing 3G/4G
macro cells, small cells and Wi-Fi
automatic network discovery,
selection and authentication,
with seamless handover between
cellular and Wi-Fi access
a high-capacity, fiber-based mobile
backhaul and transport network
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FIBER+WIRELESS ULTRA-BROADBAND
DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS
Small Cell Backhaul
Fiber + Copper/Cable to the Homespot/Enterprise Hotspot
Fiber to the
Streetspot
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Requir
ed d
ow
nst
ream
MBH
capacit
y (
Mb/s)
CURRENT FTTX TECHNOLOGIES CAN FULFILL
GROWING BACKHAUL CAPACITY NEEDS
Highest capacity site (1 operator)
Capacity site (1 operator)
Coverage site (1 operator)
Public access small cell (1 operator)
Highest capacity site (3 collocated operators)
GPON
G.fast (vectoring)
VDSL2 (vectoring)
TWDM PON
(~40 Gb/s)
…
Sources: Heavy Reading (2013), Alcatel-Lucent — data speeds may depend on loop and noise conditions
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FTTX TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE BACKHAUL
LEADS TO FASTER NETWORK MONETIZATION
RESIDENTIAL ULTRA-BB UBIQUITOUSLY AVAILABLE
PON P2P VDSL BONDING
POWERING CLOCK SYNC BANDWIDTH
LOWER OPEX MBH WHOLESALE REVENUES
MONTHLY COST PER MBPS BY TECHNOLOGY
T1/E1/DS3 copper
Microwave radio
Ethernet copper/fiber
Sources: ABI Research (Western-Europe, 2013), Alcatel-Lucent
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CONCLUSION: WIRELESS AND WIRELINE ARE
THE YIN AND YANG OF BROADBAND GROWTH
WIRELESS DEVICES & APPS
WIRELINE OFFLOAD & BACKHAUL