winter streamflo dynamics in snow dominated catchements
DESCRIPTION
THIS PRESENTATION DESCRIBE MY MSc THESIS WORK. I EVALUAETED AND DEVELOPED A MODEL TO FORECAST THE STREMFLOWS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION IN CATCHMENTS SNOW DOMINATED. BOTH IN ITAIAN AND SWISS REGIONS, THE MODEL SEEMS TO WORK REALLY WELL WITHIN ALPINE REGION. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dipartimento ICEA
UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA
Federico De Piccoli
RelatoreIng. Gianluca Botter
CorrelatoreProf. Ing. Andrea Rinaldo
Academic year 2011-2012
STREAMFLOW REGIMESTREAMFLOW REGIME IN SNOW DOMINATED IN SNOW DOMINATED
CATCHMENTSCATCHMENTS
ENAC – EPFLLaboratory of Ecohydrology
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONSnow covered landscape has acquired notable importance.
In particular in relation with:ENVIRONMENTALENERGETICSOCIAL ACTIVITIES
WINTER STREAMFLOW DYNAMICSWINTER STREAMFLOW DYNAMICS
TEMPERATURE GOVERNS THE PRECIPITATION REGIME
REDUCED EFFECT OF EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION
INCRESING WATER STORAGE RELEASED IN SPRING
RETARDING EFFECT IN RELEASE DUE TO SNOW PERSISTENCE
THIS AFFECTS VEGETATION, SOIL AND DISCHARGE DYNAMICSTHIS AFFECTS VEGETATION, SOIL AND DISCHARGE DYNAMICS
…a stochastic approach…
TEMPERATURE IS THE MAIN DRIVERTEMPERATURE IS THE MAIN DRIVER 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000[m asl]
THESE THREE ZONES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY:
• NO SNOW
• SNOW EVENTS BUT NO ACCUMULATION
• ONLY ACCUMULATION
We divide the fractions as function of Tms
Image extracted from DTM, Boite closed at Cancia basin
Tms = Mean Seasonal TemperatureHypsographic Curve
Representation in the hypsographic
curve.
TO MODEL WINTER STREAMFLOWS …
…WE FOCUS ON ZONES 2 AND 3
2 - ZONE WITH PRIMARLY SNOW EVENTS AND TEMPORARY ACCUMULATION
• Increasing snowfall probability
• Area from 1000 to 2100-2300 [m a.s.l] • Mean discharge equal to mean precipitation
ZONE 2 – ZONE 2 – A TRANSITION ZONEA TRANSITION ZONE
• Responsive fraction
3 - ZONE OF PURE ACCUMULATION
• Tms < - 4 °C• Elevation > 2300 m a.s.l.• Negligible snowmelting
The solution is an atom of probability concentrated in zero pdf(Q)=0
ZONE 3 – ZONE 3 – THE HIGHER FRACTIONTHE HIGHER FRACTION
• Accumulation area
THE THRESHOLD Z*THE THRESHOLD Z*The idea is to assume the existence of a critical elevation Z* that identifies the different part of the basin
Z*=2000-2300 m a.s.l.
Tms ≈ -2 °C
CLIMATIC INFORMATION
GEOMORPHOLOGY
Z*CALIBRATION
PARAMETER
STOCHASTIC ANALYTICAL MODELSTOCHASTIC ANALYTICAL MODEL
(liner reservoir )
Discharge delayed by snow persistence
Daily precipitation(marked Poisson process)
Soil moisture dynamic nearby the field capacity
(marked Poisson process)All rainfall is effective
PQ
Evaluation of Parameters Precipitation parameters
Precipitation series Soil and Vegetation parameters Delayed time of discharge
Mean residence time
(Recession limbs)
Mean time of delay (Temperature series)
Threshold Z* - Rescaling CONTRIBUTING AREA
(Calibration parameter Z*)
ANALYTICAL SOLUTION
PIAVE RIVER BASINPIAVE RIVER BASIN
Surface of the mountain part:3900 km2
Length of the main reach:156 km
7 testing catchments
Nervesa
Fiorentina closed at Sottorovei
Observed
Analytical with snow
Analytical without snow
<Q> [cm/d] CV
Observed 0.0947 0.412
An. Snow 0.0942 0.350
Analytical 0.1363 0.494
RESULTS RESULTS – Piave river basin– Piave river basin
Z*= 2100 m a.s.l.
74 % of area
RESULTS RESULTS – Piave river basin– Piave river basin
Coredevole closed at Saviner
<Q> [cm/d] CV
Observed 0.0927 0.385
An. Snow 0.0912 0.328
Analytical 0.1215 0.493
Z*= 2130 m a.s.l.
71 % of area
Observed
Analytical with snow
Analytical without snow
SWISS BASINSSWISS BASINS26 catchments minimal anthropogenic influence
Some basins present relevant glacial surface
Aletsch glacier in Massa catchment
7 situated in Alpine region
Massa closed nearby Blatten bei Naters
Observed
Analytical modified
Analytical original
<Q> [cm/d] CV
Observed 0.0497 0.483
An. Snow 0.0447 0.442
Analytical 0.1394 0.670
RESULTS – RESULTS – Swiss watershedsSwiss watersheds
Z*= 2210 m a.s.l.
8 % of area
Observed
Analytical with snow
Analytical without snow
RESULTS – RESULTS – Swiss watershedsSwiss watershedsDishmaBach closed at Kriengsmatte (Davos)
Observed
Analytical modified
Analytical original
<Q> [cm/d] CV
Observed 0.0930 0.286
An. Snow 0.0893 0.278
Analytical 0.2461 0.379
Z*= 2290 m a.s.l.
38 % of area
Observed
Analytical with snow
Analytical without snow
DISCUSSION OF RESULTSDISCUSSION OF RESULTS
P[z<Z*]
correlates with the average elevation
Threshold Z* nearly constant in most cases
(independently on geomorphological
attributes)
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
》 The model The model reproduces satisfactorily the probability reproduces satisfactorily the probability distributions of the winter dischargesdistributions of the winter discharges observed in both Italian and observed in both Italian and Swiss basins through the calibration of the only parameter Z*Swiss basins through the calibration of the only parameter Z*
》 The values of Z* resulting from the calibration of the model The values of Z* resulting from the calibration of the model with snow, are realistic. with snow, are realistic. Z* is found to be inside the range from Z* is found to be inside the range from 2100 to 2300m a.s.l. in most cases2100 to 2300m a.s.l. in most cases
》 Linear empirical relationships Linear empirical relationships between the fraction of between the fraction of responsive area and the mean and variance of surface heightsresponsive area and the mean and variance of surface heights have been recognized. Such relationships could help improving have been recognized. Such relationships could help improving the predictive power of the modelthe predictive power of the model
THANKS FOR THE ATTENTIONTHANKS FOR THE ATTENTION