winged promises or biological contamination? modelling ... · natiello-solari ridl-sit3/19....
TRANSCRIPT
Winged promises or biological contamination?Modelling genetic diffusion in the RIDL-SIT
technique
Mario Natiello1 & Hernan Solari
Lund University – Universidad de Buenos Aires
October 2017
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 1 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Contents
Introduction
Relevant Issues
RIDL-SIT
The Model
The Results
Learning Outcomes and Future
END
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 2 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Introduction
Model evolution vs Technology development
The Chimeric phase
The Environmental phase
The Evolutionary phase
Example: The RIDL-SIT technique as a means of reducingmosquito populations in the wild.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 3 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
Relevant Issues
Tests of the technique promoted by WHO. FDA authorised therealisation of tests in USA. April 2017: discussed at Argentina’sMinistry of Public Health.
How reliable are the expectations? On what grounds are theybased?
Which lasting modifications of the environment will beproduced by these essays?
How fast will the sanitary situation previous to theenvironmental intervention be reestablished?
Test with a genetics-enhanced version of a schematiccompartmental model including environmental effects.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 4 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The RIDL-SIT technique
SIT (Sterile Insect Technique) is a technique proposed for controlling flies inagricultural settings, as is the case with the Mediterranean fruit fly (Drosophila sp.) insouthern Mexico.
RIDL (Release of Insects with a Dominant Lethal) Tetracycline inhibited “lethal gene”.Release of lethal-gene homozygous individuals. The modification also inducesfluorescense in larvae.
Up to a penetrance of 93− 97% the gene induces death of preimaginal individualssomewhere around L4 or P stage.
The technique is intended to release in the environement only male adults. However,about 1/4300 of the released individuals are females.
The implementation is monitored by censing fluorescent larvae.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 5 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.
Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
The Model
Work in progress.
Stochastic population model. Markov jump process.
Kolmogorov, Feller, Kendall.
Compartments and events.Egg
Release
Female
Larva Pupa
Male
Death Death
DeathDeath
Death
Death LGPH
E
F
O
Occurrence of events modifycompartment occupancy.
Most of the time “nothing”happens, but when somethinghappens the modifications aresizeable.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 6 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model II
Xj(t) = Xj(0) +E∑α=1
δα
j nα(t)
Event occurrences in disjoint time-intervals are independent.The Chapman-Kolmogorov equation holds.P(nα + 1, t + h, t) = Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα, t + h, t) = 1−Wα(X , E, t)h + o(h).P(nα(h) + k, t + h, t) = o(h), k ≥ 2.
Exponentially distributed events with rates Wα(X ; E ; t) .
Probability rates Wα(X ; E ; t) contain the major biological and environmentalinformation.
Lemma 1 The waiting time to the next event is exponentially distributed with rateR =
∑α
Wα(X ; E ; t).
Lemma 2 Given that an event has occurred, the probability of it being event α is
P(α\event) =Wα(X ; E ; t)
R.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 7 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:
Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)
Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadium
Mortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal forms
Fertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Model III Food dynamics
Any model aimed at exploring the possible outcome of an environmentalintervention must include the reaction norms of the local, the released and theresulting hybrid mosquitoes.
The traits that have been so far identified are:Hatching inhibition as a response to low levels of food (the Gillett effect)Duration of the larvae stadiumMortality of preimaginal formsFertility (directly associated to body size of females)
LE(x) = max(0.025 , 0.25269 + 0.031974 x)
ML(x) =
{1 x < −8
max(0.033 , 0.033− 0.4835 (x + 6.)) x ≥ −8
GL(x) =
1 x ≥ −6
(1.+ 0.5 (x + 6.)) −8 ≤ x < −6
0 x < −8
FT (x) = max(0. , 0.127742 (x + 8.))
Lf = max(Pf
Cf− 1, 0)
Pf
Cf= Lf exp(−uτ) +
lopt + Xl
L
Xl = X 0l exp(−uτ)
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 8 / 19
Food dynamics - graphs
Experiments on larvae populations under different food strains by Victoria RomeoAznar, Marıa Sol De Majo and Sylvia Fischer (Buenos Aires) in 2014-2015.
Environment assumed to be year-round stable at 26o.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 9 / 19
Food dynamics - graphs
Experiments on larvae populations under different food strains by Victoria RomeoAznar, Marıa Sol De Majo and Sylvia Fischer (Buenos Aires) in 2014-2015.
Environment assumed to be year-round stable at 26o.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 9 / 19
Food dynamics - graphs
Experiments on larvae populations under different food strains by Victoria RomeoAznar, Marıa Sol De Majo and Sylvia Fischer (Buenos Aires) in 2014-2015.
Environment assumed to be year-round stable at 26o.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 9 / 19
Food dynamics - graphs
Experiments on larvae populations under different food strains by Victoria RomeoAznar, Marıa Sol De Majo and Sylvia Fischer (Buenos Aires) in 2014-2015.
Environment assumed to be year-round stable at 26o.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 9 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model IV The rates
Hatching: me→p =
(−0.0167105 + 0.03866 exp(
T + 7.26
16.47906)
)GL(
Pf
Cf)
Egg mortality: me = 0.01
Pupation: LE(PfCf
)(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Larval mortality: LE(PfCf
) ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence without lethal gene: mp→a = 0.5787(
1−ML(PfCf
))
Pupa mortality without lethal gene: mp = 0.5787 ML(PfCf
)
Pupa emergence with lethal gene: mpl→a = 120
(mp + mp→a
)= 1
20 0.5787
Pupa mortality with lethal gene: mpl =1920
(mp + mp→a
)= 19
20 0.5787
Adult mortality: ma = 0.04
(1−ML(PfCf
))
Adult mortality (homozygous males with 2 lethal genes): ma = 0.04
Oviposition: movi = 0.03154 exp( T−4.751110.580 )
(average of 2 eggs per day per adult female).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 10 / 19
Model V Propagation of genetic content
The lethal gene is tracked individually, with foursubpopulations.
Individual genetic content is propagated at fecundation viathe law of independent assortment of alleles.
Individual offspring inherits the genetic content of parents onan equal basis.
Average genetic content in (sub)populations modify as
Rn :=RnX (n) + Roδ
X (n) + δ, where δ is the number of individuals
belonging in compartment n for each event that transfers(average) individuals from one population compartment toanother (δ = 1 except for oviposition).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 11 / 19
Model V Propagation of genetic content
The lethal gene is tracked individually, with foursubpopulations.
Individual genetic content is propagated at fecundation viathe law of independent assortment of alleles.
Individual offspring inherits the genetic content of parents onan equal basis.
Average genetic content in (sub)populations modify as
Rn :=RnX (n) + Roδ
X (n) + δ, where δ is the number of individuals
belonging in compartment n for each event that transfers(average) individuals from one population compartment toanother (δ = 1 except for oviposition).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 11 / 19
Model V Propagation of genetic content
The lethal gene is tracked individually, with foursubpopulations.
Individual genetic content is propagated at fecundation viathe law of independent assortment of alleles.
Individual offspring inherits the genetic content of parents onan equal basis.
Average genetic content in (sub)populations modify as
Rn :=RnX (n) + Roδ
X (n) + δ, where δ is the number of individuals
belonging in compartment n for each event that transfers(average) individuals from one population compartment toanother (δ = 1 except for oviposition).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 11 / 19
Model V Propagation of genetic content
The lethal gene is tracked individually, with foursubpopulations.
Individual genetic content is propagated at fecundation viathe law of independent assortment of alleles.
Individual offspring inherits the genetic content of parents onan equal basis.
Average genetic content in (sub)populations modify as
Rn :=RnX (n) + Roδ
X (n) + δ, where δ is the number of individuals
belonging in compartment n for each event that transfers(average) individuals from one population compartment toanother (δ = 1 except for oviposition).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 11 / 19
Model V Propagation of genetic content
The lethal gene is tracked individually, with foursubpopulations.
Individual genetic content is propagated at fecundation viathe law of independent assortment of alleles.
Individual offspring inherits the genetic content of parents onan equal basis.
Average genetic content in (sub)populations modify as
Rn :=RnX (n) + Roδ
X (n) + δ, where δ is the number of individuals
belonging in compartment n for each event that transfers(average) individuals from one population compartment toanother (δ = 1 except for oviposition).
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 11 / 19
Model VI Simulations
Time-evolution of adult females with 2 targets of intervention(1Y, 50% of fluorescent eggs and 5Y, 75%).
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
LG females 1Y
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
LG females 5Y 0.75
A drastic treatment shifts the equilibrium to a permanent andsmaller released-only population.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 12 / 19
Model VI Simulations
Time-evolution of adult females with 2 targets of intervention(1Y, 50% of fluorescent eggs and 5Y, 75%).
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
LG females 1Y
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
LG females 5Y 0.75
A drastic treatment shifts the equilibrium to a permanent andsmaller released-only population.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 12 / 19
Model VI Simulations
Time-evolution of adult females with 2 targets of intervention(1Y, 50% of fluorescent eggs and 5Y, 75%).
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
LG females 1Y
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
LG females 5Y 0.75
A drastic treatment shifts the equilibrium to a permanent andsmaller released-only population.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 12 / 19
Model VI Simulations
Time-evolution of adult females with 2 targets of intervention(1Y, 50% of fluorescent eggs and 5Y, 75%).
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
LG females 1Y
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
LG females 5Y 0.75
A drastic treatment shifts the equilibrium to a permanent andsmaller released-only population.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 12 / 19
Simulations (cont)
Released/existent male ratio and hybridisation level.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Male ratio GL:NGL
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Genetic diffusion females
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 13 / 19
Simulations (cont)
Released/existent male ratio and hybridisation level.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Male ratio GL:NGL
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Genetic diffusion females
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 13 / 19
Simulations (cont)
Released/existent male ratio and hybridisation level.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Male ratio GL:NGL
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Genetic diffusion females
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 13 / 19
Simulations (cont)Technical issues
Technique is supported on unattainable assumptions. Reflectsthe dogmas of the technological frame.
Deficient monitoring technique (release modified according toratio of fluorescent larvae).
Inherits intrinsic limitations of ovitrap technique.
The effect of modified adult release propagates to a modifiedproportion of eggs after 2 − 3 weeks depending on target(longer time for larvae).
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 14 / 19
Simulations (cont)Technical issues
Technique is supported on unattainable assumptions. Reflectsthe dogmas of the technological frame.
Deficient monitoring technique (release modified according toratio of fluorescent larvae).
Inherits intrinsic limitations of ovitrap technique.
The effect of modified adult release propagates to a modifiedproportion of eggs after 2 − 3 weeks depending on target(longer time for larvae).
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 14 / 19
Simulations (cont)Technical issues
Technique is supported on unattainable assumptions. Reflectsthe dogmas of the technological frame.
Deficient monitoring technique (release modified according toratio of fluorescent larvae).
Inherits intrinsic limitations of ovitrap technique.
The effect of modified adult release propagates to a modifiedproportion of eggs after 2 − 3 weeks depending on target(longer time for larvae).
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 14 / 19
Simulations (cont)Technical issues
Technique is supported on unattainable assumptions. Reflectsthe dogmas of the technological frame.
Deficient monitoring technique (release modified according toratio of fluorescent larvae).
Inherits intrinsic limitations of ovitrap technique.
The effect of modified adult release propagates to a modifiedproportion of eggs after 2 − 3 weeks depending on target(longer time for larvae).
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 14 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?
The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?
The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?
The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
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Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (Q & A)
A. Which lasting modifications of the environment will be produced by these essays?The hybridisation of the released mosquitoes with the local populations as a result ofgenetic diffusion. The degree of hybridisation depends both on the duration of thetreatment and its intensity (target), as well as on the (environmental) differences infood dynamics.
B. How fast will the sanitary situation previous to the environmental intervention bereestablished?The recovery time of populations can be counted in months. There is no difference inpopulation sizes before and after the treatment for the targeted programmes.
C. What is the expected ratio between released males and local males necessary toachieve different levels of control?The ratio ranges from 12 : 1 to 40 : 1 to sustain a target of 0.5 to 0.75 of the eggshaving the modified genetics. Ratios larger than 100 : 1 are need to detect sizeableeffects at the beginning of the intervention. This can be compared with the reportsby Harris et al. (2012) where the essay started setting a ratio of 10 : 1 in acomparatively large area but it soon became clear that a smaller (or much smaller)area and a higher ratio (25 : 1) were necessary in order to observe some effects.
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Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 15 / 19
Results (cont)
D. How are the results affected by the limitations of an hypothetical mosquito factory?
In the simulations we have arbitrarily chosen to limit the production to 100000modified mosquitoes per week. Some essays have managed to pass this limit. Thesimulations remain always below the limit. In practice a smaller area requires lessmosquitoes. Therefore, the production limit is not an issue at the essay level.Repeatedly hitting the limit would slow down or reduce the possibility of attainingthe targets of the treatment.
E. How does recycling of dead larvae and pupae affect the dynamics?Recycling is expected to depend on genetics and environment and is little known.Dead individuals could be reprocessed in different ways depending on e.g.,temperature, bacterial contents, etc. This issue is not intrinsic to the RIDL-SITtechnique apart from the fact that this or any other technique must act on a givennatural environment. The model allows for sensing this issue to some extent. Theeffects appear to be less important regarding the genetic diffusion but sensibly largerregarding the temporary reduction in subpopulation sizes during the treatments.
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Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 16 / 19
Results (cont)
D. How are the results affected by the limitations of an hypothetical mosquito factory?In the simulations we have arbitrarily chosen to limit the production to 100000modified mosquitoes per week. Some essays have managed to pass this limit. Thesimulations remain always below the limit. In practice a smaller area requires lessmosquitoes. Therefore, the production limit is not an issue at the essay level.Repeatedly hitting the limit would slow down or reduce the possibility of attainingthe targets of the treatment.
E. How does recycling of dead larvae and pupae affect the dynamics?Recycling is expected to depend on genetics and environment and is little known.Dead individuals could be reprocessed in different ways depending on e.g.,temperature, bacterial contents, etc. This issue is not intrinsic to the RIDL-SITtechnique apart from the fact that this or any other technique must act on a givennatural environment. The model allows for sensing this issue to some extent. Theeffects appear to be less important regarding the genetic diffusion but sensibly largerregarding the temporary reduction in subpopulation sizes during the treatments.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 16 / 19
Results (cont)
D. How are the results affected by the limitations of an hypothetical mosquito factory?In the simulations we have arbitrarily chosen to limit the production to 100000modified mosquitoes per week. Some essays have managed to pass this limit. Thesimulations remain always below the limit. In practice a smaller area requires lessmosquitoes. Therefore, the production limit is not an issue at the essay level.Repeatedly hitting the limit would slow down or reduce the possibility of attainingthe targets of the treatment.
E. How does recycling of dead larvae and pupae affect the dynamics?
Recycling is expected to depend on genetics and environment and is little known.Dead individuals could be reprocessed in different ways depending on e.g.,temperature, bacterial contents, etc. This issue is not intrinsic to the RIDL-SITtechnique apart from the fact that this or any other technique must act on a givennatural environment. The model allows for sensing this issue to some extent. Theeffects appear to be less important regarding the genetic diffusion but sensibly largerregarding the temporary reduction in subpopulation sizes during the treatments.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 16 / 19
Results (cont)
D. How are the results affected by the limitations of an hypothetical mosquito factory?In the simulations we have arbitrarily chosen to limit the production to 100000modified mosquitoes per week. Some essays have managed to pass this limit. Thesimulations remain always below the limit. In practice a smaller area requires lessmosquitoes. Therefore, the production limit is not an issue at the essay level.Repeatedly hitting the limit would slow down or reduce the possibility of attainingthe targets of the treatment.
E. How does recycling of dead larvae and pupae affect the dynamics?Recycling is expected to depend on genetics and environment and is little known.Dead individuals could be reprocessed in different ways depending on e.g.,temperature, bacterial contents, etc. This issue is not intrinsic to the RIDL-SITtechnique apart from the fact that this or any other technique must act on a givennatural environment. The model allows for sensing this issue to some extent. Theeffects appear to be less important regarding the genetic diffusion but sensibly largerregarding the temporary reduction in subpopulation sizes during the treatments.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 16 / 19
Results (cont)
D. How are the results affected by the limitations of an hypothetical mosquito factory?In the simulations we have arbitrarily chosen to limit the production to 100000modified mosquitoes per week. Some essays have managed to pass this limit. Thesimulations remain always below the limit. In practice a smaller area requires lessmosquitoes. Therefore, the production limit is not an issue at the essay level.Repeatedly hitting the limit would slow down or reduce the possibility of attainingthe targets of the treatment.
E. How does recycling of dead larvae and pupae affect the dynamics?Recycling is expected to depend on genetics and environment and is little known.Dead individuals could be reprocessed in different ways depending on e.g.,temperature, bacterial contents, etc. This issue is not intrinsic to the RIDL-SITtechnique apart from the fact that this or any other technique must act on a givennatural environment. The model allows for sensing this issue to some extent. Theeffects appear to be less important regarding the genetic diffusion but sensibly largerregarding the temporary reduction in subpopulation sizes during the treatments.
More...
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 16 / 19
Model IV Results (cont)
F. Is it possible to eliminate the mosquito?
The model does not consider immigration (or emigration) to (from) the interventionregion. Under this condition, if the fertility of the released females carrying themodified gene is close to the Rockefeller strain from which they were produced, thetargeted treatment will not eliminate the mosquito but rather replace it with somehybrid strain. Simulations releasing weekly all the production of the factory suggestthat a 100% Rockefeller strain with two copies of the lethal gene will replace the wildpopulation (remaining stable) if the treatment is long enough. Analytical resultsconfirm this observation. Population levels are expected to be somewhat smaller andmosquitoes larger than in the untreated situation.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 17 / 19
Model IV Results (cont)
F. Is it possible to eliminate the mosquito?The model does not consider immigration (or emigration) to (from) the interventionregion. Under this condition, if the fertility of the released females carrying themodified gene is close to the Rockefeller strain from which they were produced, thetargeted treatment will not eliminate the mosquito but rather replace it with somehybrid strain. Simulations releasing weekly all the production of the factory suggestthat a 100% Rockefeller strain with two copies of the lethal gene will replace the wildpopulation (remaining stable) if the treatment is long enough. Analytical resultsconfirm this observation. Population levels are expected to be somewhat smaller andmosquitoes larger than in the untreated situation.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 17 / 19
Model IV Results (cont)
F. Is it possible to eliminate the mosquito?The model does not consider immigration (or emigration) to (from) the interventionregion. Under this condition, if the fertility of the released females carrying themodified gene is close to the Rockefeller strain from which they were produced, thetargeted treatment will not eliminate the mosquito but rather replace it with somehybrid strain. Simulations releasing weekly all the production of the factory suggestthat a 100% Rockefeller strain with two copies of the lethal gene will replace the wildpopulation (remaining stable) if the treatment is long enough. Analytical resultsconfirm this observation. Population levels are expected to be somewhat smaller andmosquitoes larger than in the untreated situation.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 17 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Learning Outcomes and Future
Which are the possible scenarios beyond the model?
Hybrid or “pseudo”Rockefeller mosquito takes over. How willit adapt to the environment?
How will the environment adapt to the new situation(modified breeding sites because of dead larvae and pupae).
Will hybrids be more fertile? (Who knows? Recall reactionnorms)
Could the intervention outcome be a larger epidemic risk?
These risks do not require “improbable mutations”, they couldfit within the plasticity of strains and environment.
To Contents
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 18 / 19
Gracias, Merci, Tack, Thanks
Centre for Mathematical SciencesLund University
Natiello-Solari RIDL-SIT 19 / 19