wine industry annihilated by global warming

8/9/2019 WINE INDUSTRY ANNIHILATED by GLOBAL WARMING

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WINE INDUSTRY ANNIHILATED byGLOBAL WARMING

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WINE INDUSTRY MOVES AGGRESSIVELY ON CARBON FOOTPRINT

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By any measure, California wines rank among the best in the world. But a 2-degree rise in temperature couldmake Napa Valley chardonnay a thing of the past.

A couple more degrees and Napa would no longer be prime territory for wine of any kind. And warmer grape

growing regions such as the Livermore valley could be knocked out of the premium wine game entirely.

"It's clear that there's the potential for really substantial problems, and almost certainly going to be somechange," said John Williams, owner and winemaker at Frog's Leap Winery in Napa Valley.

Among the issues Williams could face are warmer winters that hinder bud development, changes in rainfallpatterns and increasing pressure from pests that thrive in hotter weather. But uncertainty about the timing andseverity of those challenges makes it hard to plan.

"YOU CAN'T PREPARE FOR IT," HE SAID.

Although grapes may feel the heat first, they won't be alone. Many of the state's signature crops -- avocados,oranges, almonds -- will face serious declines in yield by midcentury, according to computer models that projectclimate changes.

Agriculture is the industry whose fate is most closely linked to climate, and California is by far the biggestagricultural producer in the country. In a warming world, California's agricultural riches are among the mostvulnerable in the country, so farmers and economists are starting to pay attention to the prospect of climatechange.

The state grows more than half of the nation's fruits, nuts and vegetables and is virtually the sole source of morethan a dozen crops, including nectarines, raisins, artichokes and olives.

No other state comes close. According to the most recent agricultural census, in 2002, the No. 2 state, Texas,did not bring in even half of the $26 billion grossed by California farmers and ranchers.

Other states may escape relatively unscathed, and some studies show that the uptick in temperature and longergrowing season predicted by climate models could actually be a boon to agriculture in the northernmost states..

But California's climate is already close to ideal for many of the fruits and vegetables for which it is famous,and even the most optimistic predictions show California on the losing end of the warming stick.

"At the current crop mix that we have, we're pretty much at the optimum, so changing that would push us over


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the peak of that curve," said economist Olivier Deschenes of UC Santa Barbara.

In a study forthcoming in the American Economic Review, Deschnes and Michael Greenstone of theMassachusetts Institute of Technology estimated the economic impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture byanalyzing how random year-to-year variations in temperature and precipitation affected profits in the past. Theythen used a climate model to project those effects into the future..

They calculated that global warming will result in a 4 percent, or $1.3 billion, increase in agricultural profits for

the country during the next century. But those gains were not evenly spread, and California may see an annualloss of 15 percent, or $750 million, by the end of the century..

One of the biggest reasons for this is the state's precarious water situation..

Unlike the eastern half of the United States, California's agriculture is largely dependent on irrigation. About 90percent of California's crops are produced on irrigated land..

Some climate models project the state will get more rain during the growing season, but this increase will be faroutweighed by a decrease in winter snow..

California doesn't have sufficient reservoir capacity to sustain agricultural water needs through the dry season,so storing water as Sierra snowpack is critical. A good snowpack ensures water will be available in the summerand fall when irrigation demand is still high and reserves from rainwater are low..

Currently, 80 percent of water used in the state goes to agriculture. With reductions in snowpack estimated from30 percent to 90 percent by 2100, agriculture could take a big hit depending on how dwindling water resourcesare allocated among cities, farmers and the environment..

"I cannot emphasize enough how critical a factor that is for California's agriculture," said ecologist Chris Fieldof the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University. "It doesn't matter how fast or slow a plant can potentiallygrow. In California, if you don't give it sufficient irrigation water, it's not viable as a crop."

To make matters worse, the bulk of the state's agricultural profits come from perennial plants that live for 30years or more and are not easily or inexpensively swapped for more heat- or drought-resistant crops, or movedto cooler locations.

Climate scientist David Lobell of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory led a study published in the journalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology in November that used past yields of six of the state's most lucrativeperennial crops to calculate the potential impact of future warming predicted by more than 20 different climatemodels. Five of the six crops suffered significant yield losses by midcentury in nearly all of the models.

"It's not good news," Lobell said. "I was a little surprised at how unlikely it is for climate change to have no

effect or a positive effect. Even the most conservative models show some decline."

Avocados, grown mostly in Ventura and San Diego counties, could see yields drop as much as 40 percent. TheCentral Valley's almonds and walnuts and the San Joaquin and Coachella valleys' oranges and table grapescould decline as much as 20 percent.

One potential mitigating factor that Lobell's study did not take into account is the positive effect that higherconcentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide can have on plant growth.

Plants use carbon dioxide during photosynthesis to convert solar energy into plant material and fuel. Earlyresearch suggested that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would substantially increase plant growth. But


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more recent research has shown a much smaller benefit, on the order of a 10 percent to 20 percent increase ingrowth by the end of the century with twice as much carbon dioxide as was in the atmosphere before peoplebegan producing industrial greenhouse gases.

"If the negative impact of climate was 10 (percent) to 20 percent, it's possible that it would come out in thewash, that they would more or less even each other out," Field said. "But if the impact of climate is reallysubstantial, such that you can't grow crop 'A' in place 'B,' then it doesn't really matter that in some places crop'A' was growing 10 percent better.".

FARMERS GET SQUEEZED

Some California crops are already feeling the heat.

Farmers in the middle of the country may be able to adapt fairly quickly to rising temperatures by switching tomore heat-tolerant crops. But California won't be nearly as agile..

Much of the state's agriculture involves long-lived plants such as grape vines and avocado, peach and nectarinetrees. It can take as many as eight or 10 years for some of these plants to mature and begin bearing a full load offruit. So switching to warmer-weather fruit such as oranges or lemons is no small endeavor.

"That's a huge difference between California agriculture and everywhere else," Field said. "We'reoverwhelmingly dependent on perennial crops. It means across all our crops, we are automatically morevulnerable to climate change."

This could prove to be a major problem for farmers such as Len Delchiaro who can't afford to uproot his 70acres of cherry trees in Brentwood and wait six or seven years with no income before a new set of trees beginsto bear fruit.

The biggest threat to Delchiaro's orchard is a decline in "chill hours," or hours below 45 degrees. Cherry treesneed from 900 to 1,200 chill hours during which they go dormant, a process that enables normal bud and

blossom development. Any temperature spikes above 65 or 70 degrees during the winter can also adverselyaffect dormancy.

Warmer winters, particularly a rise in nighttime low temperatures, have caused Delchiaro's trees to blossomseveral weeks late and weakened the buds so that they can't hold on to the fruit.

"When you don't have enough chill, you may have a good blossom, but the tree's not strong enough to sustainthe fruit," he said. "So then you have a large drop-off where you lose immature fruit."

Delchiaro, who has been farming cherries in Brentwood for more than three decades, has seen his crop yieldsdrop from 60 percent to 70 percent the past two years..

Years with too few chill hours are a normal part of a naturally fluctuating climate, and Delchiaro is happy witha cold winter so far this year, but he believes warmer winters have been more common in recent years

"It's been more noticeable over the last five or 10 years we're getting less and less chill," he said, noting thaturban encroachment could also be a factor.

With the cost of labor increasing, crop yields declining and the price of cherries static, farmers like Delchiaroare getting squeezed.

"WE'RE KIND OF IN A VISE," HE SAID..


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Still, he plans to hang in there with his cherries. "It's just something that we know. We're geared to it," said the56-year-old farmer. "I'm at a point in my life where I don't want to have to wait seven, eight years to change."

A rise in average temperatures isn't the only problem farmers may face in a warmer California. Brief bouts withextreme weather such as heat waves or sustained heavy rains can cause serious problems for some crops. Andclimate models suggest that extreme weather could become increasingly common as temperatures climb.

Farmer Ruth Hartnett has been growing a variety of fruits and nuts and raising various livestock on nine acresof Grand Island in the Sacramento River near Rio Vista. This summer's heat wave claimed three of Hartnett'sturkeys, and has her pondering a warmer future in which extremes become the norm. She says many farmers inher area have been struggling with the unusual weather, causing some of them to rethink their crop choices asthey brace for more of the same.

This year at least three pear orchards in Hartnett's neighborhood were plowed under to make way for hardiercrops such as citrus fruits or, in one case, a housing development.

"The weather has gotten so strange, and crops are so unreliable, especially when it comes to fruit, that thesefarmers just bulldozed their orchards," she said.

Some farmers, including Hartnett, are convinced that global warming is at least partly to blame for the peculiarweather. Although some are biting the bullet and switching crops, others are contemplating quitting the businessaltogether, and a few are thinking of relocating.

"If we're going to get this kind of heat in this area, there are farmers who are seriously considering movingnorth. Maybe Canada, maybe Alaska," said Hartnett.

For now, Hartnett is considering somewhat less-drastic steps such as replacing a few pear trees with citrus trees,but she counts herself among those who could be persuaded to hit the road..

"We seem to be at a tipping point. People are looking toward economic survival," she said "The undercurrent is,'How do I not lose my shirt and everything I've ever worked for?'"

WINES ON THE MOVE

Many crops will be affected, but the state's prized wine industry may be the proverbial canary in the coal minewhen it comes to climate change. Grapes, particularly those used for premium wines, require a delicate balanceof climatic conditions..

"Wine grapes are especially vulnerable because they have a sensitive temperature range in which they cangrow," said Stanford University ecologist Kim Nicholas Cahill, who studies the effects of extreme heat on

grapes.

Although wine grapes might not suffer major declines in yield, quality rather than quantity is the issue with thiscrop.

Too hot, and grapes may ripen too quickly and produce flabby wines with too little acid and too much alcohol.Too cold, and a wine's character will tend toward less desirable green flavors such as grass or bell pepper.

The Napa Valley region is blessed with a 64 degree average temperature that falls smack in the middle of thecomfort zones of many popular varietals, including merlot, syrah and cabernet sauvignon..


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But Napa just barely tags the range for chardonnay grapes, which thrive in 57 to 63 degree temperatures. Asmall bump up in the average growing season temperature, even just 1 degree, could push Napa intoquestionable territory for chardonnay.

Of course, this same small bump in temperature would nudge the valley closer to the ideal climate for zinfandelgrapes. But a few more degrees could be a disaster for Napa. And some of the state's warmer wine-growingregions, such as Santa Barbara and Paso Robles, might be lost altogether.

"You add another couple of degrees onto warming in Fresno, and it will become real challenging to growanything other than table grapes or raisins because you can't produce premium high-quality wine in that hot of aclimate without technology we really don't have today," said climatologist Gregory Jones of Southern OregonUniversity in Ashland.

Jones is part of a team that used a computer climate model to look at the future of the U.S. wine industry in awarming world -- and it is bleak.

According to the study, published in July in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 60 percentof the best terrain for premium grapes will be lost by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissionscontinue unabated. And the picture is particularly grim for California, currently responsible for 90 percent of the

country's wine grape production.

Most of the remaining top-quality acreage will shift northward to the Pacific Northwest. California will retainand possibly gain a little bit of territory along the coast, but the inland vineyards, including those in NapaValley and Sonoma County, will be lost.

"There's a tremendous amount of culture and value that's associated with the wine industry where it is," Fieldsaid. "It would be a heavy price to pay if we had to move out of there.

"If all of a sudden, Mendocino County becomes a better place to grow wine, even if you are producing the exactsame wine there, it's not a hundred percent clear that the value will transfer immediately. It may take the world's

wine community anywhere from months to decades to learn that now the wines associated with a certain qualityare coming from some other place."

Williams at Frog's Leap Winery knows some growers who are hedging their bets by buying property in coolerareas with an eye to growing wine grapes there in the future.

A narrow band along the northern Central coast may maintain a good climate for wine, and farther north thecoast could warm up enough to become suitable. But problems with high humidity and excess precipitation willpersist along the coast. And climate projections don't take into account the "terroir," or character of the earth;even if an area gains a climate appropriate for wine grapes, it may never produce premium wines.

If carbon emissions continue unabated, the statewide annual temperature could go up 10 degrees. That's roughlyequivalent to the difference in average annual temperature between Oakland and Los Angeles.

But if emissions are curbed significantly, the rise could be kept to around 3 degrees. That's something that winegrowers might be able to handle by changing their vine-management practices, Cahill said.

The temperatures that the grapes on the vine actually experience can be changed quite a bit by controlling howmuch leaf cover they have. Many growers in Napa trim the leaves back to give their grapes more directsunlight, which in turn produces bolder wines, said Terry Hall, communications director for the Napa ValleyVintners.


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Currently, growers often thin out clusters of chardonnay grapes to keep them cooler, Hall said, and this practicecould be used on other varietals as well if temperatures rise.

"I've seen a lot of interesting innovations in management. People do have some capacity to adapt," said Cahill."But at the higher end of the (possible) temperature increase, business as usual will definitely be much lesspossible."

~~~

AUSTRALIA'S DROUGHT MAY CUT WINE VINTAGE BY HALF

Australia's drought could cut the 2008 wine grape vintage by more than half, industry groups said on Monday,cutting into a A$3 billion ($2.6 billion) a year export business and possibly forcing hundreds of winemakers out

of business.

The 2008 vintage is likely to fall to between 800,000 tones and 1.3 million tones, compared with a normalseasonal crop of about 1.9 million tones, according to Wine Grape Growers and Winemakers' Federation ofAustralia.

"Some growers will not be able to recover, and some vineyards will be lost as a result of the drought," saidMark McKenzie, executive director of another industry group, Wine Grape Growers' Australia.

"We think some 800 growers are in immediate financial peril, with up to 1,000 at risk over time. They arebroke," McKenzie said. Australia has some 7,500 grape growers.

In some regions that depend heavily on irrigation water from the Murray Darling river system, in the southeastof the country, water allocations are as low as 10-16 percent of normal allocations, the two industry groups said.

The falling vintage comes after a glut that forced prices to rock-bottom levels and produced a spate of retailstores across Australia selling unlabelled cheap and bulk wine.

"It compounds what is already an extremely difficult financial situation, where prices may go up but growerswill not be able to take advantage of that because of the reduced crop," McKenzie said.

Australia's wine exports totaled A$3 billion in the year to July, according to the Australian Wine and Brandy

Corporation. The United Kingdom and the United States are the largest markets with about A$972-A$974million of sales each.

Australian scientists have predicted global warming will force wholesale changes to Australia's A$4.8 billionwine industry, threatening the existence of some varieties with temperatures in most wine regions projected torise by up to 1.7 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2030.

Earlier on Monday, broker JP Morgan slashed its earnings forecast for winemaker McGuigan Simeon WinesLtd by 142 percent as a result of a smaller 2008 wine grape crop.


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The broker now sees the company reporting an operating net loss of A$1.1 million from a previous estimate of aprofit of A$2.5 million.

~~~

AUSTRALIAN WINE INDUSTRY FEELS HEAT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Australian grape growers reckon they are the canary in the coalmine of global warming, as a long droughtforces winemakers to rethink the styles of wine they can produce and the regions they can grow in.

The three largest grape-growing regions in Australia, the driest inhabited continent on earth, all depend onirrigation to survive. The high cost of water has made life tough for growers.

Some say they probably won't survive this year's harvest, because of the cost of keeping vines alive. Waterprices surged above A$1,000 a megaliter last year from around A$300.

"On the back of three very ordinary years, this year is probably the worst that could have occurred with thedrought and the high costs of water," said Michael de Palma, a mid-sized grower in Redcliffe near Mildura inthe Murray Valley, one of the country's three big wine regions.

"In this depressed situation, growers have only two choices, stick it out as long as they can or to cut their lossesand get out," said de Palma, who is part-way through a weather-influenced early harvest on his 40-hectarevineyard.

Recent rains have bypassed the country's parched inland wine regions, and have fallen half-way through theharvest in eastern Australia, too late to help the berries and instead causing a mildew-like disease.

De Palma, the chairman of Murray Valley Winegrowers, said he would wait to see the results of his harvestbefore deciding whether to sell up or hold on to his vineyard, which mainly supplies Foster's Group, Australia'slargest wine company.

He estimated around 40 percent of grape growers in the Murray Valley who had access to water trading couldn'tafford to buy water last year, while most of the others had to borrow to do so, going deeper into debt.

Industry groups estimate up to 1,000 winegrowers out of around 7,000 may be forced to leave the industry this

year because their vineyards are no longer financially viable.

"There's a Darwinian economics going on at the moment, and the outcome remains to be seen," said PaulHenry, general manager of market development at Australian Wine and Brandy Corp.

"One might say we're guilty of the charge of being slow to change thus far, but the experience of this harvestwill change the outlook for Australian producers."

In some regions, such as the Murray Valley, wine grape yields are down 30-40 percent.

Australia's harvest is forecast to be down on average years, which may cut into exports in the A$6 billion


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industry.

Wine exports total some A$3 billion. Australia is the number one supplier of imported wine in the UnitedKingdom with a market share of 23 percent and it is second in the United States.

The smaller 2008 vintage, made worse by a record-breaking heatwave which withered grapes on the vines, isexpected to push up prices and spell the end of cheap bulk wine after a three-year glut that produced a rash ofno-name brands called "cleanskins."

WARMER AND DRIER

Scientists say Australia's vast inland winegrowing districts face the greatest degrees of warming.

These are the Riverland on the Murray River in South Australia, the Murray Valley, and the Riverina on theMurrumbidgee River in New South Wales.

And it is the grape-growers in these semi-arid areas that already face the greatest hardship, with calls to ruralfinancial counseling services soaring in recent months.

"We believe there are 800 to 1,000 growers predominantly in Murray Valley and the Riverland in SouthAustralia who are going to have to make a decision this year about whether they stay or go," said Wine GrapeGrowers chief Mark McKenzie.

A landmark study by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) found theseareas would warm by 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.

Last year was one of the warmest on record for southern Australia, where all of the nation's winegrowingregions lie, as well as one of the driest.

And that is enough to change harvesting times as berries ripen earlier, which can also affect their quality.

"Climate change is the biggest issue we face. Relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation do havereasonably large impacts in terms of wine style," said Winemakers' Federation Chief Executive StephenStrachan.

"Wine is a bit of a bellwether in terms of some of the very immediate impacts you see from climate change."

According to the CSIRO, grape quality could fall by 23 percent by 2030 because of the climate changes, andsuitable land for viticulture could be cut by 10 percent.

By 2050, some 44 percent of current grape-growing areas would be affected, the study found.

The solution may be for cooler climate areas, such as the bayside Mornington Peninsula south-east ofMelbourne and the Yarra Valley to the east, to expand the varieties they grow.

The southern island state of Tasmania is also attracting attention as a region that could dramatically boost itsgrape cultivation, with its mild weather closer to that of New Zealand than the parched mainland.

Indeed, wine-growers in neighboring New Zealand are upbeat about a future that includes climate change,because higher temperatures are expected to make cold areas of New Zealand more temperate and better suitedto grape growing.


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CHANGING TASTES

Warmer temperatures and less rainfall will also mean changes in the grape varieties the traditional growingareas produce.

"Styles in existing regions will change," said Strachan of the Winemakers' Federation.

"Most regions can produce most grape varieties, but whether they can produce them to quality levels that the

market expects is the big question."

While Australia's signature shiraz fares quite well in a hot climate, cabernet, pinot noir and merlot among thereds and chardonnay, sauvignon blanc and riesling among the whites may have a tougher time.

"Merlot is relatively intolerant of water stress, and it doesn't cope well with periods of very high temperatures,"said Snow Barlow, a winemaker and the chairman of the agriculture school at Melbourne University, who co-authored the CSIRO study.

Experts say Australian growers need to experiment with tougher varieties from Spain and Sicily. Tempranillofrom Spain is one of Australia's fastest-growing varieties, while along the Murray river, the Corsican grape

Vermentino is being planted.

"Wine companies build up brands. Whether we can convince the world to take to Australian Sicilian varieties insame way they take to Australian shiraz, that's quite a big commercial question," said Barlow.

Barlow, who owns the boutique Baddaginnie Run vineyard nestled in the foothills of the Strathbogie Ranges inVictoria state, said climate change shaped his decisions on what varieties to plant when he started his vineyard10 years ago.

Even so, merlot has proved problematic and he did not produce a merlot last year because of poor quality. His$20 merlot has won awards in better years.

Over time, different root stocks that are able to provide good fruit with lower water requirements will becomemore common.

But it can take months or years to import new varieties through Australia's strict quarantine system, and three tofour years to establish new rootstock for commercial production.

For grape growers already deep in debt, that is simply too long to wait.~~~GLOBAL WARMING HURTS SPAIN'S VINEYARDS, FORCES VINTNERS TO MOVEGlobal warming is killing vineyards in southern Spain, threatening a 2 billion-euro ($2.4 billion) wine industry

and forcing grape growers to move to cooler climes of the Pyrenees.

Winemakers from Europe's largest grape-growing nation are shading vineyards, developing heat-resistancecrops and moving to mountainside locations. Temperatures may rise 7 degrees Celsius by the end of thecentury, said Jose Manuel Moreno, professor of climatology at the University of Castilla La Mancha.

Any increase in temperature in Spain may make it impossible to produce wine in lower areas, according toXavier Sort, technical director of Miguel Torres SA, the maker of Sangre de Toro wine. The average maximumday temperature in Spain during the summer is 29 degrees Celsius (84 Fahrenheit).

``Agriculture will need to change, and there will be winners and losers,'' Moreno said in a telephone interview.


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``Warming will harm plants that last more than one season, such as grape vines, the most.''

Miguel Torres SA, based near Barcelona, is buying fields in the peaks of northeastern Spain, where the weatheris cooler, said Sort. Castell d'Encus vintner Raul Bobet has picked a spot 1,000 meters (3,281 feet) high in thePyrenees for his label.

``There may be a move of wineries into the Pyrenees in the future,'' said Xavier Sort, technical director ofMiguel Torres. `Ìt could be a source for future growth.''

Wine makers must plan for longer to protect their grapes, because vines can keep producing wine for as manyas 80 years and will be exposed to several generations of warming temperatures, said Richard Smart, anAustralian wine industry consultant who advises on climate change, in a telephone interview.

AT FAULT

``The wine sector itself is at fault,'' said Smart. `Ì don't think they have thought about how serious the problemis.''

Heat and sunlight increase sugar levels in wine grapes, which can boost alcohol content beyond what is

palatable. Hotter weather may also curb grape acidity, changing the flavor, and unexpectedly rainy and coldseasons can devastate a year's crop.

In Malaga and Cadiz, the most southern wine-growing regions, temperatures can top 40 degrees during thesummer months. Spain is the closest major European wine producer to the equator, making it particularlyvulnerable to climate changes.

``Climate change is the biggest environmental challenge modern society faces,'' said Jose Ramon Picatoste, anofficial in Spain's Environmental Ministry, at a conference in Barcelona in March. `Ìndustries will need toadapt.''

One degree of climate changes makes wine-growing regions in the Northern Hemisphere similar to regions 200kilometers further south, said Bernard Seguin, a scientist at France's National Institute for Agronomic Research.

HIGHER GROUND

`Ìf you are able to change grape varieties, it's not such a problem,'' Seguin said. `Ìf you can't, then it doesbecome an issue. To me, it's the most direct and striking example of the warming until now.''

Some producers may benefit from warmer weather, said Carlos Falco, director of Marques de Grinon, awinemaker in the Rioja and Montes de Toledo regions. Hot weather in 2003 led the Priorat and Ribera delDuero regions in northern Spain to get wine scores above 90, according to the Wine Spectator.

Regulators have stuck to practices from the 19th century, when vine diseases in France led vintners to expandinto the Rioja region. Watering grapes became legal in Spain in 1996.

While winemakers such as Cordoniu, a producer in the Rioja and Ribera del Duero regions, are adoptingautomated irrigation techniques, regulators in Rioja still restrict the times when vineyards can be watered.

CRUCIAL PROBLEM

Regulators should loosen rules so winemakers can decide for themselves when to irrigate, said Sanchez, head ofthe Madrid- based Spanish Federation of Winemaking Associations. His organization is developing heat-


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resistant grapes in greenhouses.

``The ability to irrigate vineyards is going to be a crucial problem,'' agrees Christian Butzke, associate professorof enology at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana.

``Grapes are the highest value-added commodity that we know of in agriculture,'' Butzke said. ``No other cropcan be converted into such an expensive product.'~~~

GLOBAL WARMING MENACES CALIFORNIA WINE INDUSTRYCalifornia will become hotter and drier by the end of the century, menacing the valuable wine and dairyindustries, even if dramatic steps are taken to curb global warming, researchers said on Monday.

The first study to specifically forecast the impact of global warming on a U.S. state also shows the snowpackmelting in the Sierra Nevada mountains, more frequent heat waves hitting Los Angles and disruptions to cropirrigation.

Researchers from the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, the Union of ConcernedScientists, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and elsewhere ran scenarios through new computermodels of global warming.

All predicted California's weather would be hotter and drier, but this would be worse if only weak action istaken to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases contributing to warming the planet.

"We are already in a situation where we have seen some warming and we have seen some impacts," saidCarnegie's Christopher Field, who led the study.

"If we stay on higher emissions trajectory, there will be consequences over the coming decades that are truly,truly serious and something I think reasonable people would be doing whatever they could to avoid," he said ina telephone interview.

Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Field and colleagues described the impactbased on scenarios devised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

One forecast, the so-called high emissions trajectory, is what Field described as business as usual. "Higheconomic growth, high globalization and a strong emphasis on fossil fuels," he said.

The low-emissions trajectory has slightly lower economic growth with industries shifted from factories towardservice industries and information technology.

QUADRUPLED EMISSIONS

Under the highest-emissions forecast, carbon emissions by the end of the century will be 28 billion tons ofcarbon per year -- about four times the current rate of 6 billion to 7 billion tons a year. The low-emissionscenario forecasts the emissions would stay at the current level.

"By the end of the century under the (best) scenario, heat waves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple infrequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50percent to 75 percent and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30 percent to 70 percent," Field and his colleagues wrote.

Under the worst scenario, heat waves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with up to seventimes as many heat-related deaths as now. The Sierra snowpack falls by 90 percent.


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This could "fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system," the researchers wrote.

They estimated that the $3.8 billion a year dairy industry and the $3.2 billion dollar grape industry would beespecially vulnerable.

California, which has taken stronger action than other states to reduce emissions, for example with strictrequirements for vehicles, cannot save itself, Field said.

"California has something like 2 percent of the world's total global greenhouse emissions," he noted.

"Even if California were to aggressively adopt emissions controls, global climate wouldn't respond to thatdirectly. But if California is proactive, that could inspire the rest of the U.S. to be proactive, which could inspirethe rest of the world, and you would see a domino effect."~~~

PINOT IMPOSSIBLE IN BURGUNDY OVER NEXT 50 YEARS

The world is going to heat to such an extent that Burgundy may no longer be able to grow Pinot Noir, aconference heard last week.

Wine character as we know it today is on the verge of radical change, world experts on global warming andvines told the first World Conference on Global Warming and Wine held in Barcelona on March 24-25.

According to authoritative computer climate models, over the next 50 years Bordeaux is set to rise by 1.2C,Napa by 1.2C, Barolo 1.4C, Rioja, where water is already an issue, by 1.3C, Portugal which is already up2.9C over the last 50 years - by 2C. The list of 50 locations had been compiled from global research presented

by climatologist Gregory Jones from Southern Oregon University.

Led by Bernard Seguin, a global bioclimatologist based at France's national agricultural institute (INRA) inAvignon, scientists defined other regions where temperatures are already near top of the range for the grapevarieties that over the past centuries of viticulture have been found to work best there. Drought is also a growingproblem.

These include Penedes and La Mancha in Spain, Chianti and Southern Italy, Southern France, Hunter Valley inAustralia, parts of Chile and the Central Valley of California.

Southern Hemisphere temperatures in vineyards in New Zealand, southern Australia, parts of Chile and South

Africa will rise more slowly due to more water, and less land mass.

The changes in temperature will have a variety of effects on viticulture. Some reds may lose color, some wineswill lose varietal flavor, some whites may disappear, said renowned Australian viticulturalist Richard Smart.'The effect will be profound,' he said.

Smart also drew attention to the dangers of vine infestation as temperatures rose, particularly in the case of theglassy-winged sharpshooter, which spreads the fatal Pierce's Disease, and the aphid hyalestes obsoletus, whichspreads a phytoplasma disease called Bois Noir. Higher temperatures mean both insects will be able to survivewinters and move further. Hyalestes Obsoletus has recently been found in German vines.


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The point was made that while it might seem almost trivial to draw attention to the dangers of global warmingto the wine industry when so many staple crops were threatened, the vine's extreme sensitivity to climate madeit 'the most direct and striking example of global warming' as Seguin put it.

The conference called on governments to take heed of the warning signals and to invest in grapevine breedingprogrammes to find varieties that will work in hotter temperatures, as well as improved irrigation systems, GregJones said.

Above all, the there are no certainties except for the fact of global warming. While we are not sure of the effectsof hotter temperatures we know it will have a profound effect on vines.

Jones pointed out that 'although the changes are only a few degrees centigrade, that is all that exists at themoment between the regions.'

Taking the Mean July Temperature of various regions he showed how their viticultural character would changeif you add 2degreesC.

Santa Maria, with a MJT of 17.3C would become Napa, at 19.3, St Helena at 21.7C would become Stockton at23.5C, Healdsburg would become Modesto, and Fresno, Bakersfield.

~~~

WINE IN THE TIME of GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming is no laughing matter

Moreover, despite former U.S. Vice President Al Gores reference to global warming as an inconvenienttruth, according to scientists throughout the world, the truth can no longer be ignored and it most definitelywill hurt us.

The earth is indeed getting warmer and the issue of global warming, or, more correctly, climate change, hasbeen brought to the forefront of the publics attention. Numerous governmental agencies and researchers havepublished reports on the crisis, making the message difficult to disregard. The scientific projections are dire andthreaten to negatively impact the planet as we know it. The wine industry is not immune and several seriousconsequences are predicted for the wine regions of the world, as climate change jeopardizes their ability to grow

quality fruit.

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH and PROJECTIONS

As they say, there is nothing new under the sun. In this case, it might be interpreted quite literally. Historically,climate change isnt novel; the Earths climate has changed dramatically before as evidenced by reports ofthriving English vineyards back in the 1200s (Weise 2006). The difference is that the change is no longer anatural phenomenon. Rather, todays change in average temperature is primarily linked to human activities,which have resulted in an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably CO2 (IPCC2001). More specifically, since 1970, carbon emissions have risen 30% over pre-industrial revolution levels,due to the combustion of fossil fuels, along with changes in land use and the release of aerosols into the


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environment (Pew 2004). Generally, scientists have found that average temperature increased 1oF over the past100 years (IPCC 2001).

Looking ahead, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)s most recent projections predict a shiftbetween 2oC and 4.5oC, with an average global daily temperature rise of 3oC by 2100 (Warren 2006). Thesenewer predictions are more precise than their previous forecast of 1.4 oC - 5.8oC, but are still substantial(IPCC). Data from Jones et.al. show the Bordeaux and Napa Valley regions each increasing by 1.2oC andPortugal increasing as much as 2oC over the next 50 years (2005a). Expectations include hotter summers for

Europe and North Africa, along with altered patterns of rainfall (Gilby 2006).

Scientists advise that if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized to 400 parts per million, some of the temperatureincrease can be avoided (Warren 2006). In fact, the IPCC forecast notes that the rise could be held to 2oC, ifgreenhouse gases remained at current levels (ibid). However, studies have found that proposed efforts to reducein greenhouse gases would likely result in a fall in real wages (ibid). Yet, even remaining at current emissionswill have an impact. Field, et.al. specifically measured the effect of climate change on California and looked atboth best (current level emissions) and worst (quadrupled emissions) scenarios (Fox 2004). Even in the bestcase, Field expected a fourfold increase in the frequency of heat waves and extreme heat in places such as LosAngeles, with mortality figures increased double to triple the number seen today (ibid).

IMPACT ON THE WINE INDUSTRY

While these temperature changes seem small, their affect on the viticultural industry will be significant. Grapesare particularly sensitive to heat and need to stay within a narrow temperature band to produce quality fruit.Thus, as explained by Bernard Seguin, One degree increase in temperature is very important (Voss 2006).Moreover, Jones contends that, climate arguably exerts the most profound effect on the ability of a region orsite to produce quality grapes and, therefore, wine (2005a). Consequently, discussions of impact have centeredon quality as even tiny changes can be the difference between a $200 Cabernet Sauvignon and cookingsherry (Weise 2006).

According to Jones study, all regions are experiencing growing season warming (2005b). For some regions, the

initial changes have been helpful. Cooler climates, such as the Mosel and Rhine regions, have benefited fromthe increased temperature, with vintages improving with warmer weather (Just-drinks 2003). In concert,Ashfelter and Storchmann expect the value of Mosel Valley vineyards to increase 20-50% over the next severaldecades as the temperature rises 1-3oC (Holzer 2006). Excellent vintages in Bordeaux and Champagne havebeen other indicators of this positive outcome (Weise 2006).

Conversely, warmer climates have suffered from the additional heat, which has been especially true for areascurrently at the high end of the spectrum for growing conditions such as La Mancha; Central Valley, CA; andsouthern France (Buckley 2006). Many wines from these warmer areas have shown an imbalance in alcohol andacidity (Just-drinks 2003). There is also concern regarding changes in flavor profile, along with imbalances intannins, sugars and aromas, which will ultimately impact style and wine quality (Gilby 2006).

Richard Smart expects a loss of color in red wines and of varietal flavor (Buckley 2006). Similarly, HansSchultz has predicted an impact on flavor development, due to the combination of increased solar radiation andtemperature (2000). Already, in the Napa Valley, the average alcohol level has increased from 12.5% in the1970s to 14.8% in 2001 (Rademakers 2006). Also, a reduction in the ageing potential for wines made fromthese stressed vines is likely, further impacting quality (Gilby 2006). Equally important, CO2 increases mightalter the texture of oak wood, thus changing the character of wines aged in barrel (Jones 2005b).

Consequently, White et.al. warn that the grape growing industries in Napa, Sonoma and Santa Barbara may notexist in the future, predicting that as much as 81% of California acreage will be rendered unsuitable forpremium grape growing as climate change continues (2006). Overall, White suggests that as the area of


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production contracts and shifts, a change to higher yields of low quality will ultimately produce lower-qualityand lower-priced wines, with the highest-quality, highest-priced wines declining greater than 50% (ibid).Furthermore, declines in these premium regions may also negatively impact local culture and tourism (Teague2006).

Another growing problem is drought, which reduced the 2005 harvest for the Torres wine company in Spain(Kakaviatos 2006). Predictably, there is anxiety regarding the availability of water (Voss 2006). Withtemperatures increasing more in the coldest areas than in warmer ones, stress on the polar ice caps is calculated

to reduce the Sierra snow pack by 30-70%, which could fundamentally disrupt Californias water rightssystem (Fox 2004). In Australia, there is concern that the mainland would receive lower rainfall (Warren2006). Not surprisingly, it has been suggested that water may be the next investment frontier (Voss 2006).

The resultant warmer winters and early arrival of spring can also be problematic, especially if a hard frostfollows early spring budding (Voss 2006). Further, there is a real danger of vine infestation, particularly fromGlassy Winged Sharpshooters, which spread Pierces Disease, and the pest hyalestes obsoletus, which isresponsible for Bois Noir (Furer 2006). These vine diseases already pose a threat, but with milder winters,insects are living longer and migrating farther distances, thus, increasing both the perimeter of affected areasand the population of insects available to perpetuate disease (Buckley 2006).

RESPONSE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY

Given the evidence, climate change clearly must be addressed. Individual growers can and have modified theirviticultural practices to adapt to the changing conditions. In Spain, Miguel Torres has begun using irrigation,which wasnt done ten years ago (Kakaviatos 2006). Similarly, a Napa Valley grower admitted that irrigationwas now a common part of his daily practice (Goldfarb 2006). However, in addition to the expense of suchsystems, the ability to irrigate may be curtailed by the rise of salinity in freshwater (Furer 2006).

Other viticultural proposals have included a switch in trellis systems to those that shelter the grapes from theintense heat, as well as using date palms to provide additional shade (Goldfarb 2006). Likely, vinificationpractices may change as well, with a need for more frequent acidification and less use of malolactic

fermentation. As Europe continues to get warmer, it will have to reconsider tradition-bound rules againstirrigation and other appellation laws to permit changes in practice. (Rademakers 2006).

The switch to different grape varieties, especially those better suited to warm weather, has also been proposed(Goldfarb 2006). Ashenfelter and Storchmann further recognize the need to breed more heat-resistant grapes,which has not yet been undertaken (Holzer 2006). Likewise, speakers at the World Conference on GlobalWarming proffered two solutions: to invest in grapevine breeding programs and in improved irrigation systems(Buckley 2006).

Unable to stand the heat in hotter regions, some producers are getting out, making the decision to buy landelsewhere. Specifically, Miguel Torres has begun to head north in search of land in cooler regions (Kakaviatos

2006). It would seem he is not alone. As Richard Smart suggests, For wineries, it will boil down to real estateissuesThe smart ones will move quickly and buy cheap (Voss 2006). Among areas to explore, it is expectedthat places such as Maine and Northern Europe, which were previously too cold to successfully ripen grapes,will emerge (Walker 2006). In Southern England, the total acreage of vineyards has increased considerably andareas for quality Australian Cabernet Sauvignon have been moving south (Rademakers 2006).

Facing the future, vineyard owners will need to examine key decisions and their financial consequences. Costsassociated with replanting new varieties will be significant; but buying new land and replanting will be evengreater. Moreover, individual growers may have less capital available to make such purchases and take on risksand could be reluctant to uproot themselves and their families. But, those who wait may find changes in landvalue to their detriment. Reinterpreting Ashfelter and Storchmanns vineyard valuations, it is likely that the


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value of premium vineyards will depreciate if they can no longer produce quality fruit. Thus, some may findthat they cant sell their land at the high price they paid for it. Finally, research programs on irrigation methodsand breeding heat-resistant grapes must be undertaken, but funding for these programs is more liable to comefrom large corporations and institutions since individual growers cant afford these efforts on their own.Overall, multinational drinks companies would seem to be in a better position than individuals to make themajor changes required such as divesting of existing properties and investing in new land, new technology andnew plantings.

CONCLUSION and PERSONAL COMMENTARY

Research clearly indicates trouble ahead for all of Earths inhabitants, with far-reaching repercussions that willimpact life on the planet. Agriculturally-based business, including the wine industry, will be forced to respond.Unfortunately, solutions such as replanting, land purchase and viticultural research, are quite costly and maydrive smaller producers out of business. Reducing the industry to multinational drinks companies may impactdiversity and regional style, which are already at risk due to climate change.

There are also important implications for terroir. The expression of terroir has been linked to Europes stressand relief cycles as opposed to the irrigated New World (Gilby 2006). Accordingly, if there are no relief cycles,irrigation use expands or both, this expression may no longer exist. Furthermore, as growers seek to move to

cooler areas, the temperatures may be more hospitable, but other climatic elements and soil types mayultimately affect the quality of the wine. Moreover, while adaptation comes more easily for New World wineregions, it may be harder for Old World regions to respond appropriately with changes to their viticultural laws.

Finally, it is imperative that climate change be viewed through a wider lens. Manipulating vines or grapevarieties to adapt to the changes ignores the larger problem. Solutions that seek to reduce emissions, and thusmitigate those affects, should be considered, despite their immediate economic impact.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Appenzeller, Tim and Dimick, Dennis R. Signs from the Earth. National Geographic Magazine, September2004.

Furer, David. Why the Wine Industry Should Care About Global Warming. Wine Business Monthly, July2006.

Global Warming a Threat to Wine Industry. Wines and Vines. September 15, 2004.

Goldfarb, Alan. Global Warming Turns Up the Heat in Napa Valley Vineyards. AppellationAmerica. August9, 2006.

Holzer, Jessica. Wine Warming. Forbes. August 11, 2006.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report Summary forPolicymakers. 2001.

Jones, Gregory. How Hot Is Too Hot? Wine Business Monthly, February 2005.

Kay, Jane. Scientists fear that rising temperatures. San Francisco Chronicle, July 11, 2006.

Montaigne, Fen. EcoSigns: No Room to Run. National Geographic Magazine. September 2004.


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Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Understanding the Causes of Global climate Change. Fact Sheet 1:Attribution, 2004.

Schultz, Hans R. Climate change and viticulture: A European perspective on climatology, carbon dixdie andUV-B effects. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research. Volume 6, number 1, 2000.

Warren, Matthew. Science tempers fears on climate change. The Australian. September 2, 2006.

Weise, Elizabeth. Wine regions feel the heat. USA Today. June 1, 2006.

White, Michael A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Jones, G.V., Pal, J.S. and Giorgi, F. Extreme heat reduces and shiftsUnited States premium wine production in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,103(30), 11217-11222, 2006.

~~~

WINERIES PREPARE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

"Global warming is on everyone's radar," says viticulturist Franci Ashton of her colleagues in California'swinegrowing industry. Small wonder: The quality and taste of wine depend utterly on the soil and climateconditions in which the grapes are growna concept known as terroir.

Scientists predict that global warming will bring higher temperatures, more heat waves and less precipitation,changes that could transform the state's $15 billion wine industry. (Wine Institute, 2004)

For example, Ashton's employer, Etude Wines, is known for its pinot noira notoriously difficult-to-growvarietal made famous by the movie Sideways. The pinots produced by Etude and other winemakers depend onthe climate of Napa and Sonoma's famed Carneros region. It lies just north of San Francisco Bay and benefitsfrom its moderating ocean breezes.

Eventually, says Ashton, places where pinot and chardonnay are currently grown may no longer work becausethe cool climate they require may no longer exist.

WATER SHORTAGES ON THE HORIZON?

Water has an enormous impact on grape cultivation, and changes to the water supply are a likely consequenceof global warming. Water is high on the mind of David Graves, co-founder of Saintsbury Vineyards, which isdeveloping a plan to use recycled water from sanitation districts for its irrigation.

"One of the big problems that might present itself would be volatility of water supply," says Graves. "When Iread about things like the drought in the Grain Belt this year, thats scary. If periods of drought become longerand more severe, thats where I start to think the recycled water issue becomes a way to have a kind ofinsurance policy."

Ashton says she and others are also starting to consider scarce water resources. "We're looking into researchthat could help us become more efficient in our irrigation," says Ashton. "Were asking 'How much water do we


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need to maintain our wine quality?' We're worried that our current viticultural practices may become obsolete."

Preparing for drought is a wise business choice. From 1998 to 2004, below-normal precipitation and hightemperatures led to the most severe drought in the western U.S. in 80 years and one of the most severe in 500years. Global warming is expected to bring on more frequent and severe droughts.

INNOVATIVE FARMING TECHNIQUES CUT POLLUTION

In addition to preparing for warmer climes, wineries, like all agricultural businesses, have a unique opportunityto help fight global warming by storing carbon. No-till agriculture eschews traditional practices that disrupt thesoil and release its stored carbon into the air as carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is one of the key heat-trappinggases that lead to global warming. More growers are practicing no-till farming, which involves minimal soilcultivation and keeps more carbon in the ground.

"It used to be a lot more common to see clean-tilled vineyards," says Graves. "Now we have a lot of no-till."

Graves estimates the amount of non-tilled acreage has increased by a factor of 10 in Napa. The practice hasmany benefits. It's really good on hillsides for preventing erosion. It helps water infiltration because the roots sitin healthier, microbial-rich soils. And it naturally keeps out pests.

Fetzer Wineries, in Southern Mendicino County, uses cover crops to attain similar soil improvements. Plantedbetween rows of grapes are red clover, daikon radishes and grasses that set nitrogen into the soil. During the drymonths from June to November, the stubble left after mowing provides habitat for spiders and other predatorsthat eat grapevine-eating crittersnatural alternatives to pesticides and herbicides.

OTHER WAYS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE

"The wine industry in itself is being pretty proactive about becoming environmentally sensitive andsustainable," says Patrick Healy, Fetzer's environmental manager. A number of wineries, including RodneyStrong and St. Francis, are embracing solar power, an optimum choice for sunny California. Fetzer has a 40-kw

solar display on its administration building that powers about three-quarters of the building.

Fetzer is one of the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Leaders. That means the company is workingin partnership with the government to develop long-term climate strategies. Additionally, starting in 1999,Fetzer participated in a greenhouse gas emissions study to set benchmarks for heat-trapping pollution ion theindustry. To reduce its emissions, Fetzer buys green electricity and uses biodiesel in all its tractors and half itsbig rigs.

"We have lots of efficiency and conservation goals here," says Patrick Healy, Fetzers environmental manager.As a result, the company says, its electricity emissions are net zero.

In addition to the biodiesel and green energy, the winery avoids using electricity during peak demand hours.From May through usually some time in August, when the crush starts, "we turn off refrigeration between 12and 6that's our biggest single energy sink at the winery," says Healy, who adds, "We wouldn't do it if itthreatened the quality of the wine at all."

~~~


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WINE INDUSTRY MOVES AGGRESSIVELY ON CARBON FOOTPRINT

The wine business is on a mission to gauge its emissions of greenhouse gasses as pressure builds fromregulators and markets in California and worldwide to emit less of the compounds blamed for global climatechange.

Agriculture as a whole is low on the list of economic sectors the California Air Resources Board is targetinginitially for mandatory reporting of 2008 emissions starting next year, as part of the phase-in of Assembly Bill32, called the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.

However, local wineries and trade groups in Australia, California, New Zealand and South Africa aren'twaiting. The groups, including the San Francisco-based Wine Institute, are backing development of globalindustry protocols for wineries, winegrape growers and other related companies to determine their totalemissions contribution, commonly called a carbon footprint, based on the World Resources Institute'sInternational Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

The Winemakers' Federation of Australia earlier this month released draft protocols and a software tool for

measuring direct and certain indirect emissions of these gasses, such as carbon dioxide largely from combustionand fermentation, methane from decomposing waste and nitrous oxide from fertilizer.

Part of the urgency for having these tools in place is not only so the California wine industry can start reducingemissions early to prepare for the emissions cap-and-trade system discussed in AB 32 implementation meetingslate last year.

Under such a system, emissions for certain business sectors would be capped at a certain rate per year, soorganizations that emit less can sell their allowance for the difference to a company that emits more. Whowould be capped, and how the carbon credits would be traded are still unclear, according to Pat Sullivan, vicepresident of SCS Engineers and one of certifiers for the state-created footprint clearinghouse California Climate

Action Registry. SCS has a certifier in its Santa Rosa office.

"Many have a vision about selling all these credits, but if they are in a growing industry they will need thecredits," Mr. Sullivan said. "The real value is not in selling credits but in having them themselves."

The Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance has been working with the registry in aligning that group's protocols todetermine how large a wine operation's footprint actually is, or how many emissions sources are considered,according to Chris Savage, director of global environmental affairs for E&J Gallo Winery and co-chairman ofthe Wine Institute's Environmental Working Group.

Another reason for urgency in getting out a carbon footprint calculator for the wine business is to contribute to

the United Kingdom's product labeling version of AB 32, Publicly Available Specification 2050, which is set tobe finalized in the next couple of months.

In what some think is a sign of what's to come in American food retailing, U.K.-based Tesco, the world's largestretailer, has started a test of printing the emissions footprint of 30 of its private-label products based on PAS2050. Combine that with the recent move to include a list of ingredients on the label of the Bonny Doon brand,and the next step is obvious, according to John Garn of Graton-based information cartography firm ViewCraft.

"Because Tesco is a direct competitor to Whole Foods, I can assure you that in a year Whole Foods will do thesame thing to be competitive," said Mr. Garn.


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He was involved with the creation of the Code of Sustainable Winegrowing and consults with wineries andother companies on environmental policies.

North Coast wine companies already are being proactive in calculating their carbon footprints.

The partners of Ukiah's Mendocino Wine Co., which includes biodynamic wine booster Paul Dolan, certifiedthe carbon footprint of their operations early last year via the California Climate Action Registry.

Part of achieving the status of having zero net carbon emissions included the installation of a $1 million solarpower system, replacement of electric motors and lights, and investment in Clean Air Cool Planet-approvedprojects that trap carbon emissions, such as a dairy biogas facility and a forest.

Still to come is a $2.5 million additional solar power project to produce the equivalent of all the winery's needsfor a year. Yet the carbon consumption value of vines is a big industry question.

"We have a mitigating factor with vineyards, and we're trying to get our hands around whether it is a mitigatingfactor for our carbon footprint," Mr. Dolan said.

The San Francisco-based Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance has commissioned U.C. Davis plant physiologist

David Smart to spend the next few months looking at how much research has been done on carbonsequestration in vineyards. He has been studying Napa Valley vineyards to compare the amount of carbon vinesthemselves hold versus how much they transfer to the soil via microbes.

That information will be incorporated into the final version of the global wine industry emissions calculator,scheduled for completion late this year.

The Jackson family is preparing a major greening of their California wineries, tasting rooms, offices, otherfacilities and supply chain starting early this summer, according to Robert Boller, vice president of productionfor the Artisans & Estate boutique brand division and head of the green initiatives.

Some aspects already are under way, particularly the use of best-management practices from the Code ofSustainable Winegrowing developed a few years ago by the Wine Institute and the California Association ofWinegrape Growers.

"Individually, all the operations are doing their own things now, and this is a chance to do a big thing," he said."The owners have put big dollars against it this year."

One example is the goal of certifying all new and remodeled facilities according to the U.S. Green BuildingCouncil's Leadership in Energy Efficient Design rating system. That starts with the 7,000-square-foot tastingroom for the Murphy Goode brand set to open in Healdsburg in March.

That move is part of three pilot water- and energy-efficiency programs offered by the California Public UtilitiesCommission and Pacific Gas & Electric Co., including a footprint calculation by Portland, Ore.-based Ecos.

The company convinced a major supplier of its tens of millions of glass wine bottles annually to switch to laseretching of bottle date stamps instead of toxic UV ink, according to Mr. Boller. The company also is persuadingwholesalers, distributors and trucking companies to reduce their footprints.

At the Hess Collection, founded by early sustainable farming advocate Donald Hess, President Tom Selfridgerecently appointed Operations Director John Bulleri to calculate the emissions footprint of its main Napa Valleywinery in American Canyon as well as the winery and 300-acre vineyard on Mt. Veeder.


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That, plus a major solar-electricity installation next year and use of goats in mowing weeds on Mt. Veeder, arepart of a bid for certification under the Napa Valley Vintners trade group's Napa Green Winery program andparticipation in the Fish Friendly Farming program.

The California Air Resources Board will be holding its first AB 32 Agriculture Stakeholder Working Groupmeeting in Sacramento on Jan. 23 at 10 a.m. A webcast of the meeting will be available athttp://www.calepa.ca.gov/broadcast/?BDO=1 .

To access the wine industry protocol and calculator, visit http://www.wfa.org.au/environment.htm .

To contact the California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance, visit http://www.sustainablewinegrowing.org .For details on the California Climate Action Registry, visit http://www.climateregistry.org .~~~GLOBAL WARMING SPELLS DISASTER FOR MUCH OF THE MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR WINEWhat next? Food Security at risk.

Areas suitable for growing premium wine grapes could be reduced by 50 percent - and possibly as much as 81percent - by the end of this century, according to a study Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences.

The paper indicates increasing weather problems for grapes in such areas as California's Napa and Sonomavalleys.

The main problem: An increase in the frequency of extremely hot days, according to Noah Diffenbaugh of thedepartment of earth and atmospheric sciences at Purdue University.

Grapes used in premium wines need a consistent climate. When temperatures top about 95 degrees they haveproblems maintaining photosynthesis and the sugars in the grapes can break down, Diffenbaugh said in atelephone interview.

"The lion's share of the industry is in California, so it's a huge concern from a wine quality standpoint."-James A. Kennedy, professor at Oregon State University

"We have very long-term studies of how this biological system (of vineyards) responds to climate," saidDiffenbaugh, and that gives the researchers confidence in their projection. Diffenbaugh is a co-author of thepaper.

Scientists and environmental experts have become increasingly alarmed in recent years by accumulating gassessuch as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels.

A panel of climate scientists convened by the National Academy of Sciences reported last month that the Earth

is heating up and "human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming." The scientists said averageglobal surface temperatures rose by about 1 degree in the 20th century. While that may not sound like much,many blame it for melting glaciers, weather changes - perhaps even more hurricanes - and threats of spreadingdiseases.

James A. Kennedy, a professor of food science and technology at Oregon State University, said he was shockedby the report on the potential effects on wine grapes.

"We're definitely, in the wine industry, starting to be concerned about global warming," said Kennedy, who wasnot part of the research team.


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"The lion's share of the industry is in California, so it's a huge concern from a wine quality standpoint," he said.For people in the industry "this paper is going to be a bit of a shocker."

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Researchand the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Please email this web page to your friends and to people who are concerned about our future and our

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Solar Industry MAGAZINEhttp://www.solarindustrymag.com`ADVANCED RECYCLING TECHNOLOGIEShttp://qc.indymedia.org/news/2005/10/5179.phphttp://pr.indymedia.org/news/2006/08/17530.phphttp://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/03/141412.phphttp://richmond.indymedia.org/newswire/display/12960/index.php

`TAX CREDITShttp://www.dsireusa.org`EAT LOCAL Organic Foodand Abate Global Warminghttp://foodchoice.livejournal.com`LOCAL HARVEST Directoryhttp://www.localharvest.org`

Local ORGANIC FARMS and STORES Directoryhttp://organicconsumers.orghttp://www.organic-center.org`Local FOOD COOPERATIVES Directoryhttp://www.coopdirectory.orghttp://www.cooperativegrocer.coophttp://foodcoop.livejournal.comhttp://www.localharvest.orghttp://www.cooperatives-uk.coophttp://www.coopzone.coop

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http://www.ethicurean.comhttp://www.facebook.com/pages/Ethicurean/10105243119`VOLUNTEER to WORK on ORGANIC FARMShttp://www.wwoof.orgbook: Europe Through the Back Door; by Rick Steves`STUDENT FARMERS Traininghttp://studentfarm.livejournal.com`END GLOBAL HUNGERby Organic Gardening and Permaculture

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Organic INSECT Controlhttp://peststop.livejournal.com`Organic WEED Controlhttp://stopweeds.livejournal.com/`Local BUYERS CLUBSCreate a Local Buyers Club in your community

http://www.unitedbuyingclubs.com`ECO FARMING - ORGANIC GARDENING book Cataloghttp://www.acresusa.com/other/freesample.htm`PERMACULTURE MAGAZINEhttp://www.permaculture-magazine.co.uk`Your Local FOOD BANK Needs Youhttp://food4bank.livejournal.com`

WINE INDUSTRY ANNIHILATED by GLOBAL WARMINGhttp://www.ukfreepages.co.uk/publish/page4628.php`SOLAR ENERGY INTELLIGENCEMore Jobs, Economic Progress, Clean EnvironmentWhy be Stupid?http://solomonintel.livejournal.com/12917.htmlhttp://valparaiso.indymedia.org/news/2006/09/8723.phphttp://thunderbay.indymedia.org/news/2006/09/24833.phphttp://pr.indymedia.org/news/2006/09/18295.php`

VOTE SOLARhttp://votesolar.livejournal.comhttp://www.seia.orghttp://www.blackboxvoting.orghttp://valparaiso.indymedia.org/news/2006/09/8723.php`SOLAR Heated SWIMMING POOL, Spa, Hot Tubhttp://www.fafco.comhttp://www.solargenix.comhttp://www.canadiansolartechnologies.cahttp://www.warmwater.comhttp://www.heliodyne.com`FREE phone and Cell phone registration:

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http://www.gnu.org/software/gnugohttp://www.gokgs.comhttp://msgo.org - GO`Free PDF Printer Softwarehttp://www.pdfprinter.comhttp://www.pdfill.comhttp://www.dopdf.com`INTERNET BOOKS

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Supporting Sustainable LOCAL Economieshttp://solargroup.livejournal.com/14345.html

wine industry annihilated by global warming

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