Windows of opportunity? Police reform in Scotland in comparative

perspective

Professor Nick Fyfe

Scottish Institute for Policing Research

& University of Dundee

SIPR-GMU Symposium

October 2014

2013

1975

1850s 1950s 1970s 1975 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

From 90 to 1: numbers of police forces in Scotland

Converging trajectories?

• Recent history of mergers of police districts/forces…

• Denmark: 72 to 54 to 12;• Norway: 54 to 27;• Finland: 90 to 24;• Sweden: 118 to 21 to 1• Netherlands: 25 to 1;

A national force: centralizing or decentralizing*?

Scotland

• 8 regional forces to a national police service

• Legislation: 2 levels (national and 32 local authorities);

• Implementation: 5 levels (national, 3 areas, 14 divisions, 32 local areas, 353 wards)

Netherlands• 25 regional forces to a

national police service;• Legislation: 3 levels

(national, 10 units, 408 municipalities);

• Implementation: 5 levels (national, 10 units, 43 districts, 168 basic teams, 408 municipalities).

• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

Governance and accountability*

Scotland

Scottish Ministers

Scottish PoliceAuthority

Chief Constable

(Local Council)

Netherlands

Dutch Ministers

Chief Constable

The ‘Local Triangle’

(local mayor/municipal council, public prosecutor

and police commander)(*based on research with Jan

Terpstra)

Local Policing*

Scotland• Legal requirement for

‘local policing’ at level of 32 local authority areas;

• Designated local commander and production of annual local policing plan;

• ‘Policing principles’ provide normative vision;

• Replacement of local tripartite governance;

Netherlands

• Legal requirement for one community officers for every 5000 inhabitants;

• Retention of ‘the local triangle’ of local mayor, public prosecutor and police commander.

• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

Why? Making sense of policy change

• Key elements….• Institutions;• Socio-economic

change;• Choices;• Networks and

coalitions;• Ideas;

• Key theories….• Punctuated Equilibrium

Model;• Policy Advocacy

Coalition Framework• Policy Streams and

Windows

• Policy streams - combine ‘problems’, ‘policies’ and ‘politics’;

• Windows of opportunity – linked to crises;

• ‘Policy entrepreneurs’ – invest time, energy and reputation in new policies.

• Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies(Kingdon, 2003)

Framing the problem: agenda setting processes*

Scotland

• Global threats from organised crime and terrorism;

• Concern at local fragmentation of police resources;

• Public spending crisis;• Consideration of

alternatives (8, 3 or 1?)

Netherlands

• Global threats from organised crime and terrorism;

• Concern at local fragmentation of police resources;

• ICT crisis• Decentralization no

longer seen as positive.• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

‘Windows of opportunity’*: linking ‘problems’, ‘policies’ ,‘politics’ and ‘policy entrepreneurs’

Scotland

• New (majority SNP) Government;

• Policing and business case for a national force;

• Public support from Chief Constable of largest force.

• Presence of ‘policy entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service

Netherlands

• New Government;• Reconfiguration of

political authority over policing ;

• Continuing ICT concerns• Presence of ‘policy

entrepreneurs’ within government & the police service

• (*based on research with Jan Terpstra)

UK level: different and diverging trajectories of police reform

England & Wales Scotland

Political logic of change

Challenging public sector bureaucracies

Economic efficiency and ‘state building’

Accountability Electoral/democratic

Bureaucratic/technocratic

Distribution of power Towards localism Towards centralism

Police Mission Crime-fighting Community well-being

Policy influence United States Northern Europe

And finally some data:Public perceptions and knowledge of policing

arrangements in Scotland

 

2012 2013

2014

 

% %

%

There is a single national police force 6 49 58

There are 8 separate regional police forces 46 13 10

There are 32 local police forces 7 3 2

Don't know/not sure 42 35 30

(Refusal) * * *

Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501

A national force and confidence in local policing

  2012 2013 2014

  % % %

Much more confident 3 3 2

A little more confident 7 9 7

Will make no difference 44 52 49

A little less confident 26 22 24

Much less confident 16 11 14

(Don't know) 4 3 3

(Refusal) * - *

Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501

How are the police doing in your local area?

  2012 2013 2014

  % % %

Very good job 7 8 6

Good job 61 60 62

Neither good nor bad job 22 23 24

Bad job 6 6 4

Very bad job 1 2 1

(Don't know) 3 2 3

(Refusal) * - -

Sample size 1,229 1,497 1,501