wind energy: the past, the present and the future · (lossof power largestissue) ... the technology...

Wind Energy: the past, the present and the future

Prof.dr. Gerard J.W. van BusselChair Wind energyFaculty Aerospace EngineeringTU Delft, Netherlands

7th December 2016 TU Delft

The Past

(Looking ~ 40 years backward)

Dennis Meadows Club of Rome Report 1972Systems Dynamics Group (MIT) “The Limits of Growth”

The Limits of Growth 1972

• CO2 concentration: 380 ppm

• World population: 6 billion

• Depletion of resources: 30%

• Climate change identified not yet quantified

Predictions for 2000: (28 years ahead)

1972 2000 2009

De standaarduitkomst

1900 21001972 2000 2009

De standaarduitkomst

1900 2100

The oil crisis (1973)

Saudi Arabian boycott

Period 1970 – 1985

• 1972 Report Club of Rome

(The Limits of Growth)

• 1973 Saudi Arabian boycott: Oil Crisis

=> oil scarcity

• 1975 First National Research Programme

Wind Energy Defined (NOW1)

• 1977 Start Wind Energy Research TH Delft

• 1981 Evaluation NOW1 by Bureau BEOP

Start of Wind Research at TU Delft (1977)

BEOP: Perspectives for Wind Energy in NL (1981)

• 2500 MW theoretically

possible (in the long run)

• < 650 MW realistically

(loss of power largest issue)

• Deployment after year 2000

• Strong governmental

Support needed

Evaluation NOW1

The technology of the eighties

• Bouma 20 m diameter (1985)

• Generator power 160kW

• Fixed RPM

• Asynchronous generator

1990 1996

~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)

Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible

- 1500 MW on land

- 1500 MW at sea

1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands

350 MW

1990

1000 MW

2000 2010

On land

At sea2000 MW

3000 MW

1996: Status and scenario in The Netherlands

~ 350MW installed in NL (~10% of EU)

Growth to 3000 MW in NL possible

- 1500 MW on land

- 1500 MW at sea

The Technology in 2005 (20 years later)

• Vestas V90 90 m diameter

• Generator power 3 MW

• Variable RPM

• DFIG generator

• 2005

•Factor 20 in power

•Factor 30 in production

•in 20 years

1990

1000 MW

2000 2010

On land

At sea2000 MW

Market development in The Netherlands

3000 MW

Scenario Netherlands

Progress: too slow

Incl. Offshore wind farms

MEP boost **

** *

*

SDE

*

end SDE

End of 2016:~4000 MW~7% of EU

The Present

• Europe 134 GW

• Asia Pacific 129 GW

• N+S America 85 GW

• Rest of world 3 GW

Total 351 GW

(End of 2015: 432 GW)

Installed Capacity

at start of 2015:

• Factor 40 in power

• Factor 80 in production (offshore)

• in 30 years

Wind Turbine technology at present

• GE Haliade

• Diameter 150 m

• Generator power 6 MW

• DDPM generator

• Full power converter

• Prototype 2012

Comparable Aircraft Technology

• Lockheed Constellation

• 1946 KLM Amsterdam New-York

• Pressure cabin

• 30-40 passengers

• 550 km/h

• Nose wheel

• 4 engines

• Wing span 38 m

• Fly by cable

• Airbus A380

• 2008 intercontinental operation

- Emerates: Dubay-New York

- Singapore Airlines: Singapore-Sydney

• ~ 500-700 passengers

• 850 km/h

• 4 engines

• Wing span 80 m

• Fly by wire

Development in Aircraft Technology

• Factor 15 in passengers

• Factor 2 in speed

• in 60 years!!

The Future

(Looking ~ 40 years forward)

Eight 100x100 km offshore wind farmsproduce 3,000-3.500 TWh per year

=The complete electricitydemand of the EU in 2005

Europe’s offshore WE potential

Source: Siemens


Source: Siemens

Twelve 100x100 km offshore wind farms.

Cover the electricitydemand in 2050

Bottom mounted en floating wind turbines


EU electricity demand (ECF 2010 scenario)

Demand growth rate: 0.7%/year

- yearly economic growth 2.0%

- energy intensity growth -1.3%

Electricity use grows to ~ 4.900 TWh in 2050

Source: EU roadmap 2050

12 12 12 12

12888

1

29

0

19

Solar CSP

Biomass dedicated

Geothermal

Large Hydro

100

Solar PV

Wind Offshore

Wind Onshore

Nuclear

Gas CCS

Coal CCS (incl. retrofits)

Gas and oil conventional

Coal Conventional

80% RES / 10% nuclear / 10% CCS

100

2

5

18

16

16

10

5

50


100

2

5

12

10

10

20

10

10

0 0


100

2

342

9

30

15

15

0 0

Baseline

0

1 2

9

18

0 0

% of production

Electricity production mix in 2050 in EU

SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA, McKinsey

205 205 205 205

170

240

270

585555555

5

0120

290

120

Large Hydro

Geothermal

Biomass dedicated

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Wind Offshore

Wind Onshore

Nuclear

Gas CCS


Additional back-up


Coal Conventional

60

815

190

245

6045

35

0 0

1,700


2,020


10

1,110

10

60

555

130

165

125

9065

0 0


1,260

1035

195

25140

185

140

100

0 0

Baseline

3525140

1100

In GW, including back-up capacity

SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA McKinsey

Electricity capacity mix in 2050 in EU

27

176 197 207 206 203

203

270

222

184

126

1

847769

13

500

0

135

0

68

88

150

2040 2050



203020202010

Solar PV

Wind Offshore

Wind Onshore

NuclearGas CCS

33

0 0

1,741

2,022

7

Coal Conventional

Additional back-up

38

652

184

216

8229 25

10 11

59

247

18

143

190

4

9414

32

1,027

2 42119 20

56

152

1150

341

1066

1300 0

1,393

6147

816

192

9

767

Large HydroGeothermalBiomass dedicatedSolar CSP

+164%

GW, including back-up capacity

Growth of capacity in EU at 80% RES

scenario in 2050

SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA analysis; team analysis, McKinsey

Growth of wind power capacity in EU at 80%

RES penetration in 2050

Wind power capacity in EU

66

152190 216

247

2

56

143

184192

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GW

Offshore

On shore

• Between 2010 and 2030:

largest growth in

onshore wind

• As of 2025: growth in

offshore wind

• In 2050: 440 GW

• Supplies 32% of the

electricity demand in EU

What does this mean for wind power in EU

(in the 80% RES scenario in 2050)?

• Wind on land grows to 247 GW (now ~150 GW)

• Wind at sea grows to 192 GW (now ~12 GW)

• With historic growth rates (30%/yr world; 11%/yr in EU)

will wind on land capacity be realised

(NB: average of 5%/yr growth rate is sufficient)

• Growth of wind at sea more challenging:

- enormous potential

- huge investments

- still high kWh cost (but sharply reduced recently)

Thank you very much for your

interest and attention

Qestions?

wind energy: the past, the present and the future · (lossof power largestissue) ... the technology...

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