wind energy development and...
TRANSCRIPT
Wind Energy Development and Technology
An overview by
Dr. José Luis Elizondo Carrales
Outline
• 2018 market status
• Short- and long-term projections
• Wind turbine technologies and market share
• Governments’ renewable energy generation goals• Denmark
• Mexico
• Chile
• Oil & gas industry… embracing renewables?
• Conclusions and predictions
2
Development of total installations
3
2018 growth: 9.4%
18 years average growth: 20.9% Source [1]
Development of new installations
4
2018 growth: −4.1%
18 years average growth: 14.6% Source [1]
LCOE - Historic development
5
Source [1]
Total installations onshore 2018
6
Source [1]
Total installations offshore 2018
7
Source [1]
New installations onshore 2018
8
Source [1]
New installations offshore 2018
9
Source [1]
New installations in Latin America
10
Source [1]
New installations outlook
11
Source [1]
New installations outlook by region
12
Source [1]
New installations outlook by region
13
Source [1]
Global Cumulative Wind PowerCapacity 2013-2050
14
Source [2]
Wind Power Share of GlobalElectricity Demand 2013-2050
15
Source [2]
Recent progress of the energy transformation
16
Source [3]
Recent progress of the energy transformation
17
Source [3]
Growth in capacity and rotordiameter of WT, 1985-2016
18
Source [4]
First 10 MW Wind Turbine inHistory V164-10.0 MW™
19
164 m Ø
Swept area of 21,124 m2
Full scale converter 50/60 Hzat 66 kV nominal voltageThe nacelle is 20.7 m long,8.8 m wide and 9.3 m high
MHI Vestas Offshore Wind, in astunning announcement at theGlobal Wind Summit in Hamburg,has made it official, Sep 25, 2018
Ready for installation from 2021
Source [5]
Largest commercially provenrotor size V174-9.5 MW™
20
174 m Ø
Swept area of 23,779 m2
The nacelle is 21 m long, 9 m wideand 9 m high, weighing approximately390 tonnesApproximate hub height of 110 mApproximate tip height of 197 m
2022 + 2023* Expected installation by Iberdrola (Baltic Eagle project owner)at Germany
*Publically communicated by the owner, subject to change
Source [6]
Most powerful offshore WT in theworld to date, Haliade-X 12 MW
21
Source [7]
Summary of different fixed-bottom foundations for offshore WT
22
Source [4]
Different types of floatingfoundation for offshore WT
23
Source [8]
Top 15 WT suppliers in annualglobal market in 2017
24
Source [9]
Top 10 offshore WT suppliers’cumulative capacity to end 2017
25
Source [9]
Top 10 WT suppliers in Latin America in 2017
26
Source [9]
Global market share & manufacturerranking by WT technology in 2017
27
Source [9]
Wind Converters Market Share
28
Source [10]
Wind Converters Market Share
29
2018Source [11]
Wind Generators Market Share
30
Source [12]
Wind Generators Market Share
31
2018Source [13]
Wind Energy Market
32
According to Global Market Insights Inc., the Global Wind Energy Market size will surpass a revenue collection of $170 billion by 2024
Offshore wind market expected to exceed $60 billion by 2024 Source [14]
Global Wind Speeds
33
Source [15]
Electricity generation by fuelWorld 1990 - 2016
34
Source [16]
Renewable Energy Target Setting
35
Source [17]
Energy Efficiency Policies
36
Countries with Energy Efficiency Policies, 2016
Source [18]
Electricity generation by fuelDenmark 1990 - 2016
37
Source [16]
Danish Clean Energy Goals
38
Source [19]
Danish Clean Energy Goals
39
Source [20]
Danish Clean Energy Goals
40
The analysis shows that gross energy
consumption will increase again. The
expected increase from 2021 is due, in
particular, to an increase in electricity
consumption at data centres, an increase
in the demand for transportation, as well as
on economic growth in the manufacturing
industries. Consumption of coal can
subsequently be expected to increase from
2023, in particular, in the absence of any
new initiatives.
Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018
Baseline Scenario Projection Towards 2030 With
Existing Measures (Frozen Policy)
Source [20]
Source [21]
Electricity generation by fuelMexico 1990 - 2016
41
Source [16]
Mexican Clean Energy Goals
42
Clean Energy Share vs Total Annual Generation
PEAERLAERFTE
Sources: Informe de EL en México 2018, Programa Especial para el Aprovechamiento de las Energías Renovables 2014-2018 (PEAER) y Ley para el Aprovechamiento de las Energías Renovables y el Financiamiento de la Transición Energética (LAERFTE)
Source [22]
Mexican Clean Energy Goals
43
Total Generation by Source June 2018 First Semester
Source [23]
Mexican Clean Energy Goals
44
Renewable Energy Installed Capacity
Source [23]
Mexican Clean Energy Goals
45
Generation by Renewable Source
Source [23]
Electricity generation by fuelChile 1990 - 2016
46
Source [16]
Chilean Clean Energy Goals
47
Source [24]
Total SEN Generation by Source
48
March 2019 (one month)
Source [25]
Unconventional RenewableEnergy Installed Capacity
49
Source [26]
Chilean Wind Speeds
50
Source [27]
Chilean Wind Speeds
51
Source [27]
Share of Renewables in Total Energy Production
52
Source [28]
The energy transition framework
53
Source [29]
Levelized Cost of EnergyComparison - Unsubsidized Analysis
54
Source [30]
Renewable energy opportunities inthe oil and gas sector
55
BP has a 43% share in Lightsource BP for Solar Energy, produced 892GWh with Biofuels in 2018, operates 10 Wind Energy sites in US with a net generating capacity of just over 1,000 MW, partnered with Tesla for testing energy storage.
Shell has five operating wind farms onshore in the US. Shell's
offshore wind projects include The Egmond aan Zee wind farm
off the Dutch coast. Shell used its experience with oil and gas
platforms to design it to withstand North Sea conditions.
Source [31]
Conclusions
56
• 2015 has been the best year ever, however, to this date, with 185 Parties having ratified the Paris Agreement of 197 Parties to the Convention, and with the Wind Market expected to keep growing with a 2.7 % CAGR up to 2023, even better years are upcoming
• Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico driving Latin America with other smaller markets contributing
• Wind power is on track• Offshore wind following onshore down the cost curve;
however for onshore it took 30 years• For wind as a whole: market drivers all still in place, and
increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate (decarbonization)
Sources
57
[1] GWEC Global Wind Report 2018 https://gwec.net/global-wind-report-2018/
[2] Global Wind Energy Outlook 2016 http://files.gwec.net/register?file=/files/GlobalWindEnergyOutlook2016
[3] IRENA Global Energy Transformation 2019 https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Apr/IRENA_Global_Energy_Transformation_2019.pdf
[4] Wind Power Technology Brief 2016 https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2016/IRENA-ETSAP_Tech_Brief_Wind_Power_E07.pdf
[5] MHI Vestas Launches the First 10 MW Wind Turbine in History 2018 http://www.mhivestasoffshore.com/mhi-vestas-launches-the-first-10-mw-wind-turbine-in-history/
[6] The V174-9.5 MW™ Turbine - Largest commercially proven rotor size http://www.mhivestasoffshore.com/innovations/
[7] Haliade-X 12 MW, the most powerful offshore wind turbine in the world to date https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind/haliade-x-offshore-turbine
[8] IRENA Innovation Outlook Offshore Wind 2016 https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Innovation_Outlook_Offshore_Wind_2016.pdf
[9] Global Wind Market Update – Demand & Supply 2017 Part One – Supply Side Analysis https://www.fticonsulting.com/~/media/Files/us-files/intelligence/intelligence-research/global-wind-market-update-2017-
supply-side-analysis.pdf
[10] The World Market for Wind Converters 2014 https://technology.ihs.com/api/binary/518988?attachment=true
[11] Global Wind Power Converter Market Analysis 2013-2018 and Forecast 2019-2024 https://majoreports.com/wind-power-converter-market-is-booming-worldwidexin-fengguang-electronic-shandong-bos-power-
supply-shenzhen-hopewind-electric/51163/
[12] The World Market for Wind Generators 2014 https://technology.ihs.com/api/binary/518987?attachment=true
[13] 2013-2028 Report on Global Wind Turbine Generator Market https://asiancrunch.org/wind-turbine-generator-market-astonishing-growth-in-coming-yearscenturion-energy-alternative-energy-
intechopen/34433/
[14] Offshore wind energy market https://www.windpowerengineering.com/business-news-projects/uncategorized/offshore-wind-energy-market-expected-to-exceed-usd-60-billion-by-2024/
[15] Global Atlas for Renewable Energy https://irena.masdar.ac.ae/gallery/#map/543
[16] Statistics data browser https://www.iea.org/statistics/
[17] Renewable Energy Target Setting 2015 https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Target_Setting_2015.pdf
[18] Renewables 2017 Global Status Report http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/17-8399_GSR_2017_Full_Report_0621_Opt.pdf
[19] Denmark’s commitment to 100% renewable energy - Greenpeace 2014 http://www.go100re.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/GP-and-WFC_Denmarks-commitment-to-100-renewable-energy.pdf
[20] Danish climate policies https://ens.dk/en/our-responsibilities/energy-climate-politics/danish-climate-policies
[21] Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Basisfremskrivning/deco18.pdf
[22] Programa Especial para el Aprovechamiento de las Energías Renovables 2014-2018 https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/249/PEAER-2014.pdf
[23] Reporte de Avance de Energías Limpias Primer Semestre 2018 https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/418391/RAEL_Primer_Semestre_2018.pdf
[24] Energy 2050: Chile's Energy Policy http://www.energia2050.cl/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Energy-2050-Chile-s-Energy-Policy.pdf
[25] Comisión Nacional de Energía de Chile - Reporte Sector Energético Abril 2019 http://www.revistaei.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/RMensual_v201904.pdf
[26] Comisión Nacional de Energía de Chile - Reporte ERNC Abril 2019 http://www.revistaei.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/RMensual_ERNC_v201904-1.pdf
[27] Explorador de Energía Eólica – Ministerio de Energía – Gobierno de Chile http://walker.dgf.uchile.cl/Explorador/Eolico2/
[28] Statistics IEA Atlas of Energy http://energyatlas.iea.org/#!/tellmap/-1076250891/4
[29] A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation 2019 https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Jan/Global_commission_geopolitics_new_world_2019.pdf
[30] Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 12.0 2018 https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf
[31] When renewables meet the oil and gas industry, opposites attract https://www.pembina.org/blog/when-renewables-meet-oil-and-gas-industry-opposites-attract
