wind and emission reductions moving to a 30% target
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Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target. Rémi Gruet Climate Change Advisor European Wind Energy Association. Date. Outline of presentation. State of play on Climate Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU Global Wind and a new climate agreement Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe Conlusions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target
Rémi GruetClimate Change AdvisorEuropean Wind Energy Association Date
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Outline of presentation
• State of play on Climate
• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU
• Global Wind and a new climate agreement
• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe
Conlusions
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Which place for wind in the climate debate?
• State of debate– Industry calling for 20% reduction max– NGOs calling for environmental integrity – 40%– Press relaying climate negationism– Uncertainty of process: COP15, US climate bill,
Yvo leaving
• Wind message: reducing emissions is possible !– Wind is growing, innovating, available today,
etc…– Wind makes a substantial % of EU reductions
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Outline of presentation
• State of play on Climate
• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU
• Global Wind and a new climate agreement
• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe
Conlusions
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EWEA 2020 Scenario – 230GW of EU wind capacity
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• Gas, coal and oil plants produce on av. 666 gCO2/kWh
• Wind production avoids2009: 163 TWh 106 Mt CO2
2012: 234 TWh 146 Mt CO2
2020: 582 TWh 333 Mt CO2
• Kyoto Protocol EU target 2008-2012 = 7.8% 450 MtCO2e per year below 1990 emissions
• EU Climate package target by 2020 = 20% 1160 MtCO2e in 2020 below 1990 emissions
More wind – less CO ₂
Source: DG TREN: Trends to 2030 - EWEA, Pure Power (Oct 2009)
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EU - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...
23% of the EU’s Kyoto target
32% of the EU’s
Kyoto target
29% of the EU’s2020 target
(20%)
2020
2009
2012
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EU 2020 - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...
29% of EU target
-20% scenario
19% of EU target
-30% scenario
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60% offsets in the climate package mean that wind will avoid
73% of EU domestic target
20% scenario
48% of EU domestic target
30% scenario
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100% of domestic reductions done by Renewables by 2020 ?
56% RES domestically+ 60% potential offsets= 16% increase in other
sectors?
40% RES domestically
+ 60% potential offsets
= 0% reduction in other sectors?
-30 % Scenario
-20 % Scenario
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EU ETS – New wind power (built after 2005) will avoid the equivalent of...
Annual ETS effort in 2020 :2005 emissions = 2177
Mt 2020 target = 1720 Mt2020 ETS effort = 457 Mt
Wind built 2005-2020 = 273 Mt
Wind = 60% of ETS effort1
Wind = 120% of ETS domestic effort1
1. For a 20% target - considering constant electricity consumption
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EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions
EU 2012 – Wind avoids 146 MtCO2,
eq. to 46 million cars
20% of EU fleet !
EU 2020 – wind avoids 333 MtCO2,
eq. to 168 million cars 80% of EU fleet !
EU fleet - 214 million cars
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Outline of presentation
• State of play on Climate
• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU
• Global Wind and a new climate agreement
• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe
Conlusions
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At global level - Wind’s contribution to pledges for Copenhagen
Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2
Current UNFCCC pledges
+ USA climate bill: 17% of 2005 emissions
= aggregated Annex I pledges 12%-19% of 1990 emissions
Versus Global Wind in 2020– 1081 GW installed capacity– 2650 TWh produced 1591 Mt CO2 avoided
-22 to 25%
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21% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target
44% of Annex I
2012 Kyoto target
70% of Annex I2020 pledges
(12%)
2020200
9201
2
Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…
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21% of Annex I 2009 Kyoto target
44% of Annex I
2012 Kyoto target
2020200
9201
2
Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…
44% of Annex I2020 pledges
(19%)
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Outline of presentation
• State of play on Climate
• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU
• Global Wind and a new climate agreement
• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe
Conlusions
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• For a 50% chance to stay below 2°C increase…– Developed countries 25%-40% from 1990
by 2020– Developing countries 15-30% deviation from
BAU
• Projections for 2020 emissions in energy sector (Mt)
USA-China-India – target or deviation from BAU
China India
International Energy Agency (IEA)
9,475 1,818
Energy Info. Admin (EIA, US)
10,004 2,187
University of Grenoble (POLES)
7,551 2,926
Source: World Resource Institute – CAIT GHG Database
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28 % of US pledge for 2020
USA - Wind in 2020 will avoid as much CO₂ as
US pledge = 17% from 2005 levels
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…20% to 26% of China’s GHG reductions
POLES
EIA IEA
China - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)
Wind power can contribute…
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POLESEIA IEA
India - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)
Wind power can contribute…
…46% to 74% of India’s GHG reductions
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• Wind will significantly reduce emissions, both– In industrialised and
– In developing countries
• Wind will deliver a very high share of the reduction effort
Industrialised countries must raise their pledges
More advanced developing countries should consider appropriate reductions from BAU
Conclusion
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Thank you very much for your attention
www.ewea.org
RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE63-65 RUE D’ARLONB-1040 BRUSSELS
T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: [email protected]
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Additional content
– Additional Climate slides– How a turbine comes together– Economics of Wind– Wind and employment– Wind innovations– EU wind map– Wind pictures
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The « Copenhagen Accord » saving climate or saving face?
• What we’ve got:– A stated objective 2°C max. temperature increase… – 2 dubious finance claims
• Fast-start : 40% still missing, most of it not additional• $100bn by 2020: when, who, how, where, for what…
• What we don’t have– No mid- or long term emissions reduction targets – No year for peaking emissions– No CO2 concentration target (i.e. 450ppm)– No roadmap to get any of the above
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New institutional framework
• UNFCCC– Cancun: deal or roadmap for further negotiations?– No other appropriate forum
• DG CLIM - Connie Hedegaard– EP audition: « I strongly believe, and Denmark’s
example proves it, that thanks to renewables it is possible to decouple emissions from development »
– Impact Assessment of cost of moving to 30%
• EU Parliament – resolution calling for 30% – “achieve domestic targets through energy savings
and renewable energy sources”